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Lance Brozdowski
США
Добавлен 18 май 2009
Comprehensive and insightful baseball analysis.
Should Jeff Hoffman and Clay Holmes Become Starters?
Let's talk about what it takes to convert from a reliever to a starter and why TWO free-agent pitchers have a shot to do it: Jeff Hoffman and Clay Holmes.
We'll break down how each of these relievers made adjustments to dominate over the last few seasons, what qualifies them to become a starting pitcher, and most importantly, dig into how organizations are thinking about this topic with advanced biomech information and data.
My substack can be found here: lancebroz.substack.com/
Instagram: lancebroz
TikTok: www.tiktok.com/@lancebroz
Twitter: LanceBroz
Huge Thanks to TruMedia for access to their software for the plots, data, and images within this video: www.trumediane...
We'll break down how each of these relievers made adjustments to dominate over the last few seasons, what qualifies them to become a starting pitcher, and most importantly, dig into how organizations are thinking about this topic with advanced biomech information and data.
My substack can be found here: lancebroz.substack.com/
Instagram: lancebroz
TikTok: www.tiktok.com/@lancebroz
Twitter: LanceBroz
Huge Thanks to TruMedia for access to their software for the plots, data, and images within this video: www.trumediane...
Просмотров: 3 777
Видео
Data KNOWS Where Max Fried & Walker Buehler Will Sign
Просмотров 9 тыс.14 дней назад
MLB Free Agency is a mess. It's a bunch of rumors with minimal substance that become irrelevant in 2 months. In this video, we'll dig into what 2 teams have shown us in their organizational pitching data and why it leads me to believe their philosophies line up with a pair of free-agent starting pitchers Max Fried and Walker Buehler. So even if Fried doesn't end up with the Cubs and Buehler doe...
Let's Examine Roki Sasaki's NPB Pitch Data
Просмотров 51 тыс.21 день назад
In this video, we'll break down Roki Sasaki's non-public NPB pitch data from 2023 and 2024 to predict how good of an MLB pitcher he could be. We'll also examine some key points in his profile, like why his fastball fell off in 2024, how his splitter is so distinct, and whether to be concerned about his arm troubles this most recent season. MLB Trade Rumors video on Sasaki's posting can be found...
Here's the Only World Series Data that Matters
Просмотров 63 тыс.28 дней назад
Let's preview the 2024 World Series between the Dodgers and Yankees through the lens of pitch usage. This simple concept tells you a lot about how both teams approach pitching. But what happens when your preferred pitching strategy is something your opponent loves? In this video, we'll break down the Dodgers and Yankees strengths on the bump and how they connect to the bats they'll face, all wi...
How The Yankees Created a Bullpen Ace
Просмотров 40 тыс.Месяц назад
Luke Weaver was an average pitcher. The Yankees turned him into their bullpen ace. How? In this video, we'll explore the 4 adjustments the Yankees made to develop Weaver into one of the postseason's sharpest relievers. From a pair of orientation adjustments to a simple velocity boost through a mechanical tweak, the Yankees continue to prove they're one of the best at pitching development in MLB...
2024 MLB Prospect Data Standouts | Best Four-Seamer, Kristian Campbell, Xavier Isaac & More
Просмотров 2,7 тыс.Месяц назад
Let's take another trip around the minor leagues and focus on the individual players that stood out from a data perspective. In this video, we'll break down which individual pitches performed best and why. We'll also focus on how a pitcher's body can affect shapes and hitter perception. The second half of this video will be packed with the MiLB standouts from an offensive perspective. We'll loo...
How to Pitch To Mookie Betts and Juan Soto | MLB Postseason Breakdown
Просмотров 2,3 тыс.Месяц назад
Juan Soto and Mookie Betts are the 2024 postseason's most distinct hitters. Soto doesn't SLG down in the zone and doesn't chase. Mookie Betts is having trouble covering sweep away. But how much do you rely on the obvious when every other postseason team understands the same thing? Are you willing to risk your shot at a ring on something you're 60% certain about? In this video, we'll breakdown h...
The Myth of Individualized Pitching | 2024 Player Development Recap
Просмотров 4,2 тыс.Месяц назад
By looking at aggregated MiLB data, we can learn about what organizations prefer to do in pitching development. Let's dive into 2024's numbers and learn as much as we can about how different organizations operate, what they prefer, and why. Within this video, we'll touch on the Dodgers' preference for velocity, the Rays' insane success, the Guardians' low velo high fastball usage, the Red Sox's...
Pitcher Adjustments With POSTSEASON Impact | Joe Musgrove, Frankie Montas Breakdown
Просмотров 1,7 тыс.2 месяца назад
As the postseason nears, adjustments that pitchers make late in the season create complex situations for teams as they prep for the highest-leverage games of the year. Joe Musgrove's fastball shape changed and he's throwing a new gyro slider. How does that affect the rest of his mix? And is the gyro slider even really different from his cutter? The Brewers made a pair of adjustments to Aaron Ci...
Already MLB's BEST Slider?! | Kumar Rocker Breakdown
Просмотров 7 тыс.2 месяца назад
Already MLB's BEST Slider?! | Kumar Rocker Breakdown
The SECRETS of Deception Explained | Pitching Breakdown
Просмотров 4,9 тыс.2 месяца назад
The SECRETS of Deception Explained | Pitching Breakdown
Can Command Training SAVE Pitchers?
Просмотров 4,8 тыс.2 месяца назад
Can Command Training SAVE Pitchers?
The Dodgers (and Rays!) Have Done It Again | Michael Kopech, Edwin Uceta Breakdown
Просмотров 15 тыс.3 месяца назад
The Dodgers (and Rays!) Have Done It Again | Michael Kopech, Edwin Uceta Breakdown
Top 20 MLB Pitching Prospects Breakdown
Просмотров 7 тыс.3 месяца назад
Top 20 MLB Pitching Prospects Breakdown
The Simple Way MLB Teams Make Pitchers BETTER
Просмотров 12 тыс.3 месяца назад
The Simple Way MLB Teams Make Pitchers BETTER
How is the Rays Pitching Development So Good? | Taj Bradley Breakdown
Просмотров 9 тыс.3 месяца назад
How is the Rays Pitching Development So Good? | Taj Bradley Breakdown
You Don't Know MLB's Best Reliever | Secrets of the Guardians Pitching Development
Просмотров 13 тыс.3 месяца назад
You Don't Know MLB's Best Reliever | Secrets of the Guardians Pitching Development
Does Location Outweigh Stuff? (Cole Ragans Has Thoughts!)
Просмотров 2,8 тыс.4 месяца назад
Does Location Outweigh Stuff? (Cole Ragans Has Thoughts!)
Can This Pitching Machine SAVE MLB Hitters?
Просмотров 13 тыс.4 месяца назад
Can This Pitching Machine SAVE MLB Hitters?
Chase Burns or Hagen Smith? | 2024 MLB Draft Pitch Data Breakdown
Просмотров 7 тыс.4 месяца назад
Chase Burns or Hagen Smith? | 2024 MLB Draft Pitch Data Breakdown
BEST MiLB Hitting Philosophy? (2024 Update) | Dodgers, Pirates, Mariners, DBacks, Yankees & More
Просмотров 2,3 тыс.4 месяца назад
BEST MiLB Hitting Philosophy? (2024 Update) | Dodgers, Pirates, Mariners, DBacks, Yankees & More
BEST MiLB Pitching Philosophy? (2024 Update) | Yankees, Dodgers, Rays, White Sox & More!
Просмотров 3,5 тыс.5 месяцев назад
BEST MiLB Pitching Philosophy? (2024 Update) | Yankees, Dodgers, Rays, White Sox & More!
Ohtani vs Skenes SAVED Starting Pitching | Introducing Pitch Decay & Buyback
Просмотров 5 тыс.5 месяцев назад
Ohtani vs Skenes SAVED Starting Pitching | Introducing Pitch Decay & Buyback
These Two BAD Sinkers Dominate & Exploring Ball Flight Mysteries
Просмотров 3,2 тыс.5 месяцев назад
These Two BAD Sinkers Dominate & Exploring Ball Flight Mysteries
Dodgers: Allergic to Throwing Elevated Fastballs?
Просмотров 8 тыс.6 месяцев назад
Dodgers: Allergic to Throwing Elevated Fastballs?
Why the NEW Bat Tracking Data from Baseball Savant Matters
Просмотров 13 тыс.6 месяцев назад
Why the NEW Bat Tracking Data from Baseball Savant Matters
Paul Skenes Pitch Shape Breakdown | MLB Debut Coming May 11th!
Просмотров 4,7 тыс.6 месяцев назад
Paul Skenes Pitch Shape Breakdown | MLB Debut Coming May 11th!
Jared Jones Followed the Spencer Strider Blueprint
Просмотров 4,7 тыс.6 месяцев назад
Jared Jones Followed the Spencer Strider Blueprint
Logan Gilbert Just Got Better. But At What Cost?
Просмотров 7 тыс.6 месяцев назад
Logan Gilbert Just Got Better. But At What Cost?
I don't know how you can trick with to many similar types pitchers.
Come to Seattle we develop great pitchers
Have you considered doing a video on why a pitcher is over-performing their stuff plus numbers? A guy like Andrew Abbott, it makes no sense why he does not have a 5-6 ERA.
Push the velocity, grip it as hard as you can and throw the crap out of it. How long until they all have Tommy John? They will surely all just break really soon, right?
Finally somebody else who doesnt hate on Clay holmes
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What do you think about the twins trying out griffin Jax as a starter?
Yeah! I like it, I mention him at the end of video actually. I wanted to focus on free agents in this but if I expanded out Jax would be #1
As a Yankee fan I always thought Clay got beat on his sinker. It’s a good pitch but it always felt like he was at his best when he was throwing that sweeper and slider more. I think it’d be an interesting experiment but I’m not sure how much I’d believe in it. However you are a lot smarter than me so it’ll probably work out.
On another note, if you're intereated/have the time, I'm curious what your thoughts are on Will Warren. I feel like he is a strong candidate for a Yankees SP->RP transformation. His Sinker-Sweeper combo remidns me of Ottavino and Michael King, albeit from a higher arm angle. I feel like if they full-force focus him on being a RP (which is likely given that the rotation has no openings for him atm) he could find similar success, and then maybe down the road could even be a candidate for the SP->RP->SP career trajectory of guys like Lugo and King.
I do like Warren a lot. He’s one of the few guys with an above average SK and 4S per stuff models, which is often hard to do. I’m a bit torn on whether I’d prefer him as SP or RP. I get going with the latter and just leaning on returning some value, but I think he’s worth keeping as an SP and figuring out some of the kinks that prevented him from being productive. Feels like those King/Schmidt/Warren types take a year or two to figure out their LHH approach.
I think Clay Holmes would be a terrible idea. He has horrendously inconsistent command of his pitches and we can easily expect a 1-3MPH average fastball/sinker velocity decrease if he switches to the rotation. I can't see this one tbh Lance.
Horrendously inconsistent command is a pretty large exaggeration to me. He’s run an ~8% walk rate for 3 years and our main proxy for “command” via FanGraphs thinks he’s average Gotta back up the eye test with data! And vice versa
SP not RP. Even tho teams have tried and failed. 1)Try mechanical changes (they did. Saw improvements. Still not enough) 2)change grip. Did. Still not enough. And it has less movement. Soo, less difference in pitch mix. More likely to get hit if batter GUESSES wrong cause doesn't leave bat path. 3) with no logical reason. Teams should try SP to save money. With evidence why. "Here's how he ranked as reliever. Let's have him rank even WORSE as SP. I hate this guy being associated with Cubs. Analytics are f*@'ed
I didn’t understand like 75% of this comment, but thank you for commenting and helping me in the algo. 🫡
@LanceBroz I don't understand your logic... You state proof AGAINST your conclusions. Then say you should do it anyway. That clear things up?
I would like to see Kopech start again ! But you got tony ,dustin may ,walker ,ohtani ,yama (snell ,fried ) probably sasaki and pretty sure they could trade for crochet
Dodgers gonna have the first 10-man rotation haha
Do you think if the Dodgers and Cubs offers to him are competitive he picks LA because his roots there?
Kinda seems to me like everybody is just assuming the Dodgers get all these SPs (Fried, Sasaki, Buehler, etc). And that just seems unlikely to me. My impression of the Cubs is that they’d spend in mid tier market (Eovaldi, Kikuchi, etc) or through trade. So while I think they’d be a fit, I bet another team offers more.
Random question but what do you think of Shintaro Fujinami and could the dodgers make him into an elite arm?
Fuji can’t find the zone. I think it’s as simple as that. I’d send him to Driveline and give him an entire offseason of command training. Hope it bore some fruit. Maybe LAD would find something in his delivery to help? Although I’m mostly skeptical that small mechanical tweaks would cut his BB rate in half. Basically unplayable if he’s walking ~22%, no matter how fun the stuff looks.
@@LanceBroz Thanks for the reply and I think you are exactly right, it just feel criminal to let that stuff go to waste...
Hi Lance, thanks for tackling this topic. In addition to these two guys, do you have any thoughts on the potential conversion for Griffin Jax and Dedniel Nunez (the latter of whom only really throws two pitches, but has been playing with a sinker and change)? I found from a cursory search that both seem to check all three of those preliminary boxes you listed. Would love to know if you have any insight on those two, as well as for Nate Pearson who I'm a little less high on but apparently the Cubs are planning to try to start. Edit: Just heard you mention Jax in the final 30 seconds of the video, glad to know I was not that far off!
Yeah! Jax is a super obvious conversion type, especially with MIN needing some SPs. I just wanted to focus on FA RPs in this vid so I chose Holmes and Hoffman. Nunez reminds me a lot of Ben Brown without the height. 2-pitch mix that’s pretty platoon neutral because of the shapes (slider is a death ball). He sinker shape *looks* good but I think he’s cutting it too much and velo is down unnecessarily. But I like the baseline of the changeup I think he’s a constant for a conversion, yeah. Just might run into problems with the 4S, like Ben Brown has, but maybe the lower release helps him a bit. Pearson is an odd one. He’s continually underperformed his peripherals for most of his career. Feels like a perennial “should be better” guy, but I often think the more sample we get of ERA, which can be crazy noisy, the more reliable it can become. We’re probably not there YET but we’re creeping towards it. I’m fine from a return-on-investment standpoint of trying to start Pearson. I just don’t think it works, especially if Wrigley plays more neutral next year, he’s going to give up a bunch of home runs.
Fantastic, quality video. No fluff, solid data, fantastic insights. Thank you!!!
Thanks!
Awesome vid lance!
Thanks!
🐐
🫡🫡🫡
Keep up the great work Lance!
Thanks!
Holmes has a really nice sinker-sweeper mix like Michael King, but unless he's got another pitch (aside from his SL) up his sleeve he can command well I think trying to convert him to a starter is more of an experiment than a thing worth a shot. Still a really interesting idea!
He has a elite sinker 2 different well grades sliders, and threw couple of four seam fastballs in the post season.
I think the sinker plays better to LHH than people think, generally those with a ton of drop do. So may not really need the 4s, but I think some kind of SPL/CH would help with the swing-miss.
Already has 4 pitches (SK/SL/Sweeper/FB), we’re tinkering with the idea of adding a CH (which is good in pens) and/or a CT, which should work well from his supination bias.
@@Angeldnavac Grade means nothing if you don't have consistent command, and those grades are likely inflated by the fact that he doesn't have to throw those pitches 30-50 times per game each. I cannot see Holmes thriving as a SP even remotely rn.
Great analysis as usual!
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Nice video!
Was thinking about a video that I think would be really interesting- Going through each team and describing their pitching/development philosophy Could also add maybe a prospect in their system or potential FA that fits their philosophy best
I like it! Will definitely consider I did something kinda like this earlier this year and the prior year as well. Basically more of a check-in… BEST MiLB Pitching Philosophy? (2024 Update) | Yankees, Dodgers, Rays, White Sox & More! ruclips.net/video/KEda32ZJbR4/видео.html
@ Oh awesome, definitely giving that a watch!
Thanks for the amazing stats! Great video🤙🏼
Thanks for watching !
You are so locked in Lance. Keep cooking
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I don't think that's a Cub's philosophy as much as it is a Breslow philosophy, as all the points you're making here about fast balls with break and sweepers have made it's way to Boston. Boston's rotation is also full of righties, so it makes sense that Boston is going to be looking for at least one lefty option.
In a way, sure. But I think that when Breslow left they didn’t just scrap everything he believed in. His imprints are still on the org. Breslow and Bailey are throwing so few 4S with BOS and CHC still throw a good amount through the minors. So I’d almost argue, in a way, perhaps Breslow brought some ideas and Bailey brought others.
I'am willing to bet 50 k this dude has been watching yamamoto 😂😂😂
What soft tossing lefty starter will the Pirates fix this year, and why is it Cole Irvin? 😂
L O L These are the comments I live for on my channel 😂
Walker you are a Detroit Tiger 😏😏😏.
I know it doesn’t make sense for him to come to my Detroit Tigers but I think he’d fit really well. We also have elite pitching coach and he wouldn’t have to be an elite starter he would be a mid rotation arm for us.
Just found your channel, and I love the stat breakdown. Great details and explanation.
Thanks!
エンゼルスに行くのもいいと思う笑
Interesting approach
Come to my team, the White Sox 😐 😢
With Sasaki’s velocity and pitch movement, are there specific MLB teams or pitching coaches who’d be especially well-suited to help him transition to the majors? For instance, the Cleveland Guardians have a great track record for developing pitchers with strong fastball-slider combinations, like Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie, and they’re known for building on a player’s strengths while making key adjustments for MLB success. Do you think a team like Cleveland could be a good fit for Sasaki, or might another organization be better equipped to bring out his unique skill set
Well I think the Dodgers are a great fit, particularly because I think his SL needs some rework and LAD crushes that development with most of their pitchers. I think the Twins do a great job on the biomech side of things, unlikely he goes there, but they’d be a great team to get him back to 2023 movement patterns and shapes. You’re on the right track though! Guardians would be fun. Just have to wonder what he’s valuing in this process.
I think he's no doubt joining team Tommy John. I don't think he's going to be as electric as he used to be unfortunately.
This guy is underrated big time ! Mlb shows should give him a call
🙏🙏🙏
Cub will not spend the required money for either Fried and Buehler. Fried want to go to west coast (ie Dodgers)
Cubs are the favorite in betting markets right now. Dodgers can’t have all the free agents! That’s not how it works 😂
Immediately moot now that the latest Japanese phenom is being posted, with his salary apparently being controlled due to his age and international status, and the Cubs having an insiders track on him - if he’s open to it.
Getting into the weeds! I love this kind of shit! I'll miss Fried with my team but we've more or less known he was moving on for a few years.
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If I hear correctly, cold weather affecting Buehler, then maybe Boston, or teams affected by cold weather is a good fit.
奴は体力無いからね😆
uhhh....no. Fried just had dinner with half the Dodgers roster, and he's from SoCal, so that's where he's going. Buehler has also made it quite clear he wants to stay in LA, so Dodgers sign both.
Anywhere I can see similar content but on hitters?
I have some nuggets on hitters at the end of this video 👍 I tend to stick to pitching more because a) I get the nuance of it better and b) there’s more data to sift through. With hitters we only have a few public stats off which to build conclusions and often times because it’s so pitch-and pitcher-dependent, the data takes so more time for me to find signal in. So it’s a bit harder imo.
we need sasak in dodgers uniform. it's almost a given he will sign with dodgers
I think the probability he ends up a Dodger is being way overrated by the public
perfect timing for this vid
Thanks! Didn’t think he’d get posted, but glad he is
Flaherty re-signing with the Dodgers is highly unlikely if they land Sasaki.
I don’t see any team giving a ‘big bag’ multi-year contract to Buehler. Too many unknowns. If it’s just a (1) year, second year club option deal, why wouldn’t he re-sign with the Dodgers?
Fried is from California and the Dodgers need a lefty. Just sayin….
This video really has made me curious about what the Tigers secret sauce was this season. I know our fanbase considers our pitching coach a wizard, but what was it they were seeing in these minor league guys who were statistically playing average at best and ungodly in the majors? How does this affect free agents they either move on from or acquire?
They have some smart people in their org, Fetter is great but it’s not just him. Robin Lund the asst pitching coach is super sharp. I think Harris just knows how to hire and that’s converted into having a great integration of biomech and pitch development. I expect them to be a clear top half pitching org team for a while. They’re kinda like BAL, where I don’t think there’s *one* specific thing they do amazing (like LAD/CLE with velo, TB with hard sliders and pitch design, etc) but they do a lot really well.
He’s probably a dodger, but the Mets will probably be pretty aggressive