Painter is throwing 25 pitch bullpens every Tuesday and Friday. Only FB and changeups atm. Might pitch in sim games later in the year but nothing more was the last update which came back on June 29
Good note! Thanks for sharing. He’s the mystery of all mysteries Could come out and be clearly the #1 pitching prospect in baseball or he could end up like Chase Hampton at present My fingers are crossed for the former, he looked great a while back
Baseball is a brutal sport! But I’d argue the industry does a good job of ID’ing the top-end studs and those guys I feel confident saying they’ll have some MLB career. The guys from 1-7 on this list will reach MLB and have some career. Maybe 1 of them doesn’t. The hit rate starts to drop off beyond that elite tier of arms to me. So from like 9-40 on my list is probably where we’re looking at your prediction that only 50% last more than like 150 IP. That’s more fair to me
Awesome stuff as always!! Wanted to just provide a little context on the Sproat hype since you mentioned he only recently came to your attention and I''ve been following him since 2022 both in college and as a Mets fan. His stuff in AAA has underwhelmed compared to its normal standards (allegedly since i have no official data below AAA obv) likely because it's been his very first introduction to a new ball. Additionally and likely more importantly, 96 is pretty low by his standards. Fastball has consistently reached triple digits, topping out 101 on many occasions both in college and throughout the minors, his velo has just been down a bit as of late. As is with the AAA data, his fastball is a little bit below average, but with the likely increases in velo and movement, I think it has potential to be an above average offering. Also one more note, Sproat features a sinker in tandem with his 4-seam which isn't listed on your graphic. Perhaps that is effecting some of your data on his 4-seam to some extent, but both are definitely below average in terms of pure shape. I just think with the velo and 2 different looks with the fastball, it can play above its 'deadzone' shape. This isn't at all meant as a criticism of your ranking I think it's totally fair, just trying to provide some context for why others have him so high. Sorry this has been so long. Thanks for all of the awesome videos (Also one more tiny note. I almost always hear people say his name Spr-oat as in oat milk rather than sprout but I could be totally wrong on that, just wanted to note it here just in case)
I love your #14, #15, #16 and #17 haha. Rocker is always gonna be my guy. Sproat has good shapes that pop a little. Four-seam has that tail to it so it might work against RHHs. Rosario with his splitter feels like he's one harder pitch away from being a back-end guy. I had him throwing a cutter at Miami (FL) in the 2023 college season. Wonder if Texas brings it back possibly to give him something hard. Rosario was throwing both a changeup and splitter at Miami in outings so nice to see him lean on the split because it's gross. AJSS I agree with you on the sweeper but maybe they want swing and miss? It's an odd choice. If he has both gyro and sweeper that's not a bad thing.
Thanks! I agree that’s a fun window of the list Just tough to push those guys any higher imo AJSS I get wanting swing - miss to RHH with the sweeper but I just don’t think he needs it 🤷♂️ SL is already good, might be me thinking too much into how that shape could affect his movement patterns
Sproat is supposed to actually be a 98-99 mph fastball guy but he’s ticked down a bit since coming to AAA. I think they’re hoping he gets back up there adjusting to AAA and the different ball.
Yeah I’m not sure where people are getting the “sitting 98-99” from. The data I have says he’s averaged 96 through the minors and that’s held up at Triple-A. 🤷♂️ Agree on the ball potentially affecting his shape, but his vertical break was 14.8” in the minors and now it’s 13.7”. So I don’t really expect him to jump back to 15” without an arm slot change. We don’t really see guys rebound from the ball 100%, especially those that are spin efficient.
I think Chase Petty out of Chattanooga with the Reds has shown some good stuff, being great on a terrible Chattanooga team, sort of like a Garrett Crochet situation
Petty I had 32nd I think in preseason. There’s velo there (he’s averaging 96) and the release is super low (5.1’) but he’s not missing a ton of bats and his ball moves so much horizontally that I think he struggles to zone things. There’s some potential there though, I’m just not totally sold it’s a Bonafide starter right now, so he’s not a t40 guy for me at the moment.
Unfortunately might be the case! Lowder feels a bit old school and I think he might be underrated for a while as people doubt whether his stuff can back up his results
Yeah, Zebby is a guy I probably should’ve been hotter on. I had him 30ish when my list dropped but he’s probably more in that 15-20 window. Velo and strikes is hard to find. Bummed cause I thought I had a good read on him, I just balked a little at the AAA result despite good underlying stuff. I think Festa v him is a fun discussion. I think I still lean Festa
Thanks for the reply! Yeah the fastball looked legit to me and the walk rate is kind of unreal Festa first makes sense, just cuz I think his stuff is more noticeably plus. No idea how the Twins churn these guys out
Do you have any general tips for evaluating pitchers who cut their fastball? Seems like stuff models don't capture this well, so are you just looking for track record of weak contact or something else?
I run into this too. I think you gotta look for velocity, weak contact and then how quality their breaking ball is. I want velo with good shape that a guy can somewhat zone if you’re cutting your fastball (Clarke Schmidt, Ashcraft, etc) Cubs seem to have a tendency to like these cut shapes. Birdsell, Hodge, Steele and now Horton. There’s also the fun theory that cut fastballs visually disguise a slider better. Unsure if proven, but always been a curiosity of mine
@@LanceBroz oh yeah ofc Skenes is next level i was referring to their matchup a few days ago, where River worked a few scoreless going against Skenes before being pulled
Hey Lance, have you done anything on Ben Joyce? The lack of strikeouts is maddening. 13.2% swinging strike rate is good, VAA is nice, extension is fine at 6.8, but the Ks aren't there. Do you think it's the weak 12 IVB, or the 80% usage of 4Seam+Sinker? Stuff+ loves his slider, but then i look at where he's throwing it, and it looks like it's all front door/back door attempts to get called strikes. Is his sequencing not optimized? Is this just another byproduct of the Angels rushing guys? Would love to hear your take on the volunteer fireman (joyce)!
Main issue is the 80% fastballs for whiff purposes, yeah. I wonder whether the SL is too slow off the fastball. There’s a shape in there for him that’s probably 90-92 and I bet it would eat hitters up.
@LanceBroz love that you take the time to respond and look at data points i wouldn't think of. I didn't even realize the gap between his SL and FA is 6 mph greater than league average. If i understand the idea, could that lead to hitters picking up on the slider more easily? That whiff rate is low compared to the pitch characteristics, and the put away rate is really low compared to the whiff. Gosh, darnit, you're so cool, man!
Good name here. His stuff looks fantastic. Electric fastball. Huge extension, 96+, 18”+ vert. Hard short sweeper off it. Nasty cutter at 92 as well. You give me even a semi healthy season of Taylor and he’s a t20 guy pretty easily.
Where would you put Caden Dana? He's certainly been a riser on prospect lists and I wouldn't be shocked to see him on a future iteration of this video.
Yeah, he’s got a shot. I think he’s a bit command over stuff right now that’s driving his results, not totally convinced the heavy FB-SL approach is going to work in MLB, CH and CU aren’t performing well and don’t look amazing. So he’s outside my top 40ish right now but it’s close. Angels are also a mess on the PD side which I don’t really factor in for most cases (ie, Dollander) but is making me a bit hesitant to believe he cooks in the majors.
@@LanceBroz his stuff definitely wasn't mlb level (all his pitches had below 100 TJstuff+) and he also seemed to have a lot of pitches in the waste range. But then he's only 20 so it makes sense he isn't good for MLB standards yet. Btw love your analysis
is it just me or do i think chaseburns would do much better with a splitter due to the high release and the high velo he will have it can be devastating for leftys and even righties?
Perhaps! But the changeup he flashed had pretty great shape, he just barely needed it. Splitter is in the realm of possibility though for sure if the changeup backs up with the MLB baseball
I didn’t, it was around 5%. So if there’s a peripheral pitch in there I’m missing on a guy, no surprise 👍 But if you see something larger that I missed, let me know
He’s super fun. Have him 40th on my list. Dodgers gave him a new slider the second he got into the org, backed off the loopy curve he had, new slider has been money. He doesn’t have a ton of outlier metrics, but I think he’s a weird lefty look with good command. High variance guy cause he’s so young, I’m definitely keeping an eye on him being in the Dodgers org
Dana has good results, he’s just outside my top 40, I see the case for him being anywhere from like 28-40, very little separation between guys once you get outside the top 20 I think his profile is going to have to be buoyed by command at the moment. He’s basically throwing 2 pitches (changeup and curve haven’t been good) and neither the 4S or SL is standout in Stuff+. I’m more trying to project what his success will be against MLB hitters and I’m not totally sold that he’d dominate them. I also built in a little that the Angels have pretty terrible pitching development in the minors. He’s a guy that will move quick and then have to develop in MLB, which means it won’t be pretty at first I bet.
Yeah, he looked pretty stellar to me. With the injury, I’d drop him a little for sure, I just published this list before the injury and kept the video with the same rank for the sake of consistency
Not considered a prospect anymore, he’s graduated. Would probably be a 20-30 guy for me if I had to rank. Like the fastball there a lot, Houston playing with mix and locations from what I can see. There’s a #3/4 starter in there
@@LanceBroz - there is a recent interview by a Fangraphs with Arrighetti. He credits his improvement as the season has gone on to focus more on his opponent's weaknesses rather than just continually challenging batters with his best Stuff plus pitches. I'd recommend giving it a read. Because what you say about Rhett Lowder being cerebral enough to succeed with average pitches may also apply to Arrighetti. When you pushed out this list via Substack there was a comment that Schwellenbach would be #14 if he still qualified. At the end of the year I'd love to see you either do an "25 and Under " list that includes both MILB and MLB pitchers or a 2024 MLB Debut pitcher list.
And abominable results at the ML level. He has stuff but it seems to underperform, and straighten out when he tries to put velo on it. Rocker has looked about 3x better than Leiter this year, tbh - I think Jack will be Texas’s setup guy in 2025. Disappointing outcome for a 2nd overall pick but sometimes you must salvage the value that is left.
Perhaps an oversight. But he’s definitely not top 20 right now even with that great outing the other day Could he get back there? Absolutely. But it’s more about performance in MLB that dominating MiLB hitters
@@LanceBroz see anything from the 100mph / 11K outing in AAA that seems sustainable? I know they exist, but I’m not sure how to access advanced stats from the minor league parks (are they even public)?
He’s just outside the t20 The differences between like 11 and 30 are small, all same tier I’m lower on him relative to the industry though. His fastball isn’t that great. His secondaries are getting insane whiff numbers. It’s results over stuff. And I tend to lean more heavily on underlying shapes
They aren’t similar from a body standpoint, but Sam moll is another lefty that has a foot less extension than his height so he’s an interesting case study in how extension(or lack thereof)influences things.
Need more velo there. He’s topping like 92, sitting 91. Gotta have pristine command to even think about that working. I get he’s a lefty so that should buy some room for deception to help lack of velo, but I’m not sold right now
@@LanceBroz totally agree. it seems like the dbacks have been bringing up a lot of pitchers who don’t throw hard but have a lot of good offspeeds. the only one that has worked was brandon pfaadt, but he’s still a few ticks above Lin
He’s super interesting but just not totally there yet for me. He’s not missing a lot of bats with his fastballs, tons of horizontal on everything (arm or glove side), results look good, but I’m just a bit worried it’s not enough swing miss to work long term right now and I’m not sure what the fix is to get more miss. The absolute upside in this profile is like a Logan Webb, Tanner Houck. Evans isn’t getting that much unexpected drop of his sinker off his arm angle which I think is limiting the potential to become either of those two. It’s more likely a righty killer, multi inning RP right now for me
Yeah, I talk about this on my list. He’s gotten results but his stuff isn’t … great He’s the ultimate results over stuff bet to me. I’m betting on the stuff side and I don’t think the fastball is going to survive, so he’s gotta find another strike pitch or rip non fastballs 70%, which would be crazy but honestly the approach I would take One of my hotter takes perhaps, I know a lot of people love him
@@LanceBroz I'm a not a huge fan of the curveball but the slider's shape looks good, command has and will continue to be a problem it seems though. The fastball had decent vert against seatle (+70RPM ) for some reason but regressed in his last outing - definitely a project.
Painter is throwing 25 pitch bullpens every Tuesday and Friday. Only FB and changeups atm. Might pitch in sim games later in the year but nothing more was the last update which came back on June 29
Good note! Thanks for sharing.
He’s the mystery of all mysteries
Could come out and be clearly the #1 pitching prospect in baseball or he could end up like Chase Hampton at present
My fingers are crossed for the former, he looked great a while back
What is maddening is that perhaps more than half of these players will either never reach the major leagues or will be out within 5 years.
Or be perennially mediocre*
Baseball is a brutal sport! But I’d argue the industry does a good job of ID’ing the top-end studs and those guys I feel confident saying they’ll have some MLB career. The guys from 1-7 on this list will reach MLB and have some career. Maybe 1 of them doesn’t.
The hit rate starts to drop off beyond that elite tier of arms to me. So from like 9-40 on my list is probably where we’re looking at your prediction that only 50% last more than like 150 IP. That’s more fair to me
Awesome stuff as always!! Wanted to just provide a little context on the Sproat hype since you mentioned he only recently came to your attention and I''ve been following him since 2022 both in college and as a Mets fan.
His stuff in AAA has underwhelmed compared to its normal standards (allegedly since i have no official data below AAA obv) likely because it's been his very first introduction to a new ball.
Additionally and likely more importantly, 96 is pretty low by his standards. Fastball has consistently reached triple digits, topping out 101 on many occasions both in college and throughout the minors, his velo has just been down a bit as of late. As is with the AAA data, his fastball is a little bit below average, but with the likely increases in velo and movement, I think it has potential to be an above average offering.
Also one more note, Sproat features a sinker in tandem with his 4-seam which isn't listed on your graphic. Perhaps that is effecting some of your data on his 4-seam to some extent, but both are definitely below average in terms of pure shape. I just think with the velo and 2 different looks with the fastball, it can play above its 'deadzone' shape.
This isn't at all meant as a criticism of your ranking I think it's totally fair, just trying to provide some context for why others have him so high. Sorry this has been so long. Thanks for all of the awesome videos
(Also one more tiny note. I almost always hear people say his name Spr-oat as in oat milk rather than sprout but I could be totally wrong on that, just wanted to note it here just in case)
I love your #14, #15, #16 and #17 haha. Rocker is always gonna be my guy. Sproat has good shapes that pop a little. Four-seam has that tail to it so it might work against RHHs. Rosario with his splitter feels like he's one harder pitch away from being a back-end guy. I had him throwing a cutter at Miami (FL) in the 2023 college season. Wonder if Texas brings it back possibly to give him something hard. Rosario was throwing both a changeup and splitter at Miami in outings so nice to see him lean on the split because it's gross. AJSS I agree with you on the sweeper but maybe they want swing and miss? It's an odd choice. If he has both gyro and sweeper that's not a bad thing.
Thanks! I agree that’s a fun window of the list
Just tough to push those guys any higher imo
AJSS I get wanting swing - miss to RHH with the sweeper but I just don’t think he needs it 🤷♂️ SL is already good, might be me thinking too much into how that shape could affect his movement patterns
Sproat is supposed to actually be a 98-99 mph fastball guy but he’s ticked down a bit since coming to AAA. I think they’re hoping he gets back up there adjusting to AAA and the different ball.
Yeah I’m not sure where people are getting the “sitting 98-99” from. The data I have says he’s averaged 96 through the minors and that’s held up at Triple-A. 🤷♂️
Agree on the ball potentially affecting his shape, but his vertical break was 14.8” in the minors and now it’s 13.7”. So I don’t really expect him to jump back to 15” without an arm slot change. We don’t really see guys rebound from the ball 100%, especially those that are spin efficient.
I think Chase Petty out of Chattanooga with the Reds has shown some good stuff, being great on a terrible Chattanooga team, sort of like a Garrett Crochet situation
Petty I had 32nd I think in preseason. There’s velo there (he’s averaging 96) and the release is super low (5.1’) but he’s not missing a ton of bats and his ball moves so much horizontally that I think he struggles to zone things.
There’s some potential there though, I’m just not totally sold it’s a Bonafide starter right now, so he’s not a t40 guy for me at the moment.
@@LanceBroz I'm Exited to see him get the call in september, along with Rhett Lowder
I like your take on Lowder, Lance. It seems like the art of pitching has somewhat diminished or gone away
Unfortunately might be the case! Lowder feels a bit old school and I think he might be underrated for a while as people doubt whether his stuff can back up his results
Hey Lance, thoughts on Zebby Matthews? Debuted the other day and looked like he had a decent mix, would love to know how you feel about him
Yeah, Zebby is a guy I probably should’ve been hotter on. I had him 30ish when my list dropped but he’s probably more in that 15-20 window. Velo and strikes is hard to find.
Bummed cause I thought I had a good read on him, I just balked a little at the AAA result despite good underlying stuff.
I think Festa v him is a fun discussion. I think I still lean Festa
Thanks for the reply! Yeah the fastball looked legit to me and the walk rate is kind of unreal
Festa first makes sense, just cuz I think his stuff is more noticeably plus. No idea how the Twins churn these guys out
Do you have any general tips for evaluating pitchers who cut their fastball? Seems like stuff models don't capture this well, so are you just looking for track record of weak contact or something else?
I run into this too. I think you gotta look for velocity, weak contact and then how quality their breaking ball is. I want velo with good shape that a guy can somewhat zone if you’re cutting your fastball (Clarke Schmidt, Ashcraft, etc)
Cubs seem to have a tendency to like these cut shapes. Birdsell, Hodge, Steele and now Horton.
There’s also the fun theory that cut fastballs visually disguise a slider better. Unsure if proven, but always been a curiosity of mine
Really sad seeing River getting injured, he was out dueling Skenes
It was a bummer! Really like him long term
Skenes is generational, so that might be a little rich. But not a knock on Ryan
@@LanceBroz oh yeah ofc Skenes is next level i was referring to their matchup a few days ago, where River worked a few scoreless going against Skenes before being pulled
Great video
🫡🫡🫡
Always appreciate your insights, Lance! How close was Luis Morales to cracking your T20?
Morales is fun. He’s literally 21 on my list, so super close
Same tier as the guys from 11 onward
Banger sweeper there
Hey Lance, have you done anything on Ben Joyce? The lack of strikeouts is maddening. 13.2% swinging strike rate is good, VAA is nice, extension is fine at 6.8, but the Ks aren't there. Do you think it's the weak 12 IVB, or the 80% usage of 4Seam+Sinker? Stuff+ loves his slider, but then i look at where he's throwing it, and it looks like it's all front door/back door attempts to get called strikes. Is his sequencing not optimized? Is this just another byproduct of the Angels rushing guys? Would love to hear your take on the volunteer fireman (joyce)!
Main issue is the 80% fastballs for whiff purposes, yeah.
I wonder whether the SL is too slow off the fastball. There’s a shape in there for him that’s probably 90-92 and I bet it would eat hitters up.
@LanceBroz love that you take the time to respond and look at data points i wouldn't think of. I didn't even realize the gap between his SL and FA is 6 mph greater than league average. If i understand the idea, could that lead to hitters picking up on the slider more easily?
That whiff rate is low compared to the pitch characteristics, and the put away rate is really low compared to the whiff.
Gosh, darnit, you're so cool, man!
any thoughts on the short stint, before injury, on Grant Taylor?
Good name here. His stuff looks fantastic.
Electric fastball. Huge extension, 96+, 18”+ vert. Hard short sweeper off it. Nasty cutter at 92 as well.
You give me even a semi healthy season of Taylor and he’s a t20 guy pretty easily.
Where would you put Caden Dana? He's certainly been a riser on prospect lists and I wouldn't be shocked to see him on a future iteration of this video.
Yeah, he’s got a shot. I think he’s a bit command over stuff right now that’s driving his results, not totally convinced the heavy FB-SL approach is going to work in MLB, CH and CU aren’t performing well and don’t look amazing.
So he’s outside my top 40ish right now but it’s close. Angels are also a mess on the PD side which I don’t really factor in for most cases (ie, Dollander) but is making me a bit hesitant to believe he cooks in the majors.
@@LanceBroz his stuff definitely wasn't mlb level (all his pitches had below 100 TJstuff+) and he also seemed to have a lot of pitches in the waste range. But then he's only 20 so it makes sense he isn't good for MLB standards yet. Btw love your analysis
is it just me or do i think chaseburns would do much better with a splitter due to the high release and the high velo he will have it can be devastating for leftys and even righties?
Perhaps! But the changeup he flashed had pretty great shape, he just barely needed it.
Splitter is in the realm of possibility though for sure if the changeup backs up with the MLB baseball
Sorry, not sure if you answered this in the video - was there a usage% cutoff you used for the pitch mixes in each slide?
I didn’t, it was around 5%. So if there’s a peripheral pitch in there I’m missing on a guy, no surprise 👍
But if you see something larger that I missed, let me know
Luis Perales probably makes this list if not for TJ
I have him around 30 in my full ranks, yep
Thoughts on Jackson Ferris?
He’s super fun. Have him 40th on my list. Dodgers gave him a new slider the second he got into the org, backed off the loopy curve he had, new slider has been money. He doesn’t have a ton of outlier metrics, but I think he’s a weird lefty look with good command.
High variance guy cause he’s so young, I’m definitely keeping an eye on him being in the Dodgers org
any thoughts on Caden Dana?
Dana has good results, he’s just outside my top 40, I see the case for him being anywhere from like 28-40, very little separation between guys once you get outside the top 20
I think his profile is going to have to be buoyed by command at the moment. He’s basically throwing 2 pitches (changeup and curve haven’t been good) and neither the 4S or SL is standout in Stuff+. I’m more trying to project what his success will be against MLB hitters and I’m not totally sold that he’d dominate them.
I also built in a little that the Angels have pretty terrible pitching development in the minors. He’s a guy that will move quick and then have to develop in MLB, which means it won’t be pretty at first I bet.
Where would Hayden Birdsong and Carson Whisenhunt rank?
Nowhere
@@EdwinRamos-gq8eh So they wouldn’t rank in the top 1,000? or million?
Whisenhunt I just left off, Birdsong is 26
Isn't River Ryan like 26? Is his potential really high enough to be ranked 4th?
Yeah, he looked pretty stellar to me. With the injury, I’d drop him a little for sure, I just published this list before the injury and kept the video with the same rank for the sake of consistency
Spencer arighetti??
Not considered a prospect anymore, he’s graduated. Would probably be a 20-30 guy for me if I had to rank. Like the fastball there a lot, Houston playing with mix and locations from what I can see. There’s a #3/4 starter in there
@@LanceBroz - there is a recent interview by a Fangraphs with Arrighetti. He credits his improvement as the season has gone on to focus more on his opponent's weaknesses rather than just continually challenging batters with his best Stuff plus pitches. I'd recommend giving it a read. Because what you say about Rhett Lowder being cerebral enough to succeed with average pitches may also apply to Arrighetti.
When you pushed out this list via Substack there was a comment that Schwellenbach would be #14 if he still qualified. At the end of the year I'd love to see you either do an "25 and Under " list that includes both MILB and MLB pitchers or a 2024 MLB Debut pitcher list.
Why is Jack Leiter not on here? Not saying he should be, but I feel like I'm missing something with him? Reliever risk too high?
And abominable results at the ML level. He has stuff but it seems to underperform, and straighten out when he tries to put velo on it. Rocker has looked about 3x better than Leiter this year, tbh - I think Jack will be Texas’s setup guy in 2025. Disappointing outcome for a 2nd overall pick but sometimes you must salvage the value that is left.
Perhaps an oversight. But he’s definitely not top 20 right now even with that great outing the other day
Could he get back there? Absolutely. But it’s more about performance in MLB that dominating MiLB hitters
@@LanceBroz see anything from the 100mph / 11K outing in AAA that seems sustainable? I know they exist, but I’m not sure how to access advanced stats from the minor league parks (are they even public)?
Hi , do you know any update about Ricky Tiedemann ? haven't heard anything about him lately .
Went for TJ surgery about a month ago, so we likely won’t see him until the 2nd half of next year
@@LanceBroz oh thats really sad :( , thank you .
Love the analysis but did Tink hence die?
He’s just outside the t20
The differences between like 11 and 30 are small, all same tier
I’m lower on him relative to the industry though. His fastball isn’t that great. His secondaries are getting insane whiff numbers. It’s results over stuff. And I tend to lean more heavily on underlying shapes
@@LanceBroz I gotcha
They aren’t similar from a body standpoint, but Sam moll is another lefty that has a foot less extension than his height so he’s an interesting case study in how extension(or lack thereof)influences things.
Good one! I thought of German Marquez and Justin Wrobleski too
But both those guys aren’t close to 6’9” lol
hey lance, what do you think about Yu Min Lin in the dbacks org?
Need more velo there. He’s topping like 92, sitting 91. Gotta have pristine command to even think about that working. I get he’s a lefty so that should buy some room for deception to help lack of velo, but I’m not sold right now
@@LanceBroz totally agree. it seems like the dbacks have been bringing up a lot of pitchers who don’t throw hard but have a lot of good offspeeds. the only one that has worked was brandon pfaadt, but he’s still a few ticks above Lin
Was Logan Evans close to making the list?
He’s super interesting but just not totally there yet for me. He’s not missing a lot of bats with his fastballs, tons of horizontal on everything (arm or glove side), results look good, but I’m just a bit worried it’s not enough swing miss to work long term right now and I’m not sure what the fix is to get more miss.
The absolute upside in this profile is like a Logan Webb, Tanner Houck. Evans isn’t getting that much unexpected drop of his sinker off his arm angle which I think is limiting the potential to become either of those two.
It’s more likely a righty killer, multi inning RP right now for me
Tink Hence not top 20. Seems like an oversight. If intentional why? Watched him pitch a lot he is better than about half this list.
Yeah, I talk about this on my list. He’s gotten results but his stuff isn’t … great
He’s the ultimate results over stuff bet to me. I’m betting on the stuff side and I don’t think the fastball is going to survive, so he’s gotta find another strike pitch or rip non fastballs 70%, which would be crazy but honestly the approach I would take
One of my hotter takes perhaps, I know a lot of people love him
Birdsong not top 20 or undebuted only?
Just outside t20 for Birdsong. List includes debuted pitches.
Slight breaker concern with Birdsong but that kick changeup is *chef’s kiss* - lovely
@@LanceBroz I'm a not a huge fan of the curveball but the slider's shape looks good, command has and will continue to be a problem it seems though. The fastball had decent vert against seatle (+70RPM ) for some reason but regressed in his last outing - definitely a project.
no luis morales
He’s literally 21 on my substack list