Fascinating stuff, Lance! Is it mostly coincidence that the Dodgers push velo and needed 40 pitchers to get through this season with 3 needing TJ surgery? Thx for sharing your incredible analyses!
I'd love to hear some more elaboration on the Brewers pitching development. You had them in the "results, unique?" box but didn't really talk about them as much.
Yeah, funny there, but I recorded this video and then realized that I completely forgot about MIL, who if I had to classify them, generally like outlier release/shape characteristics. So I just tossed them in the "results" bucket. I unfortunately just didn't have time to go back and re-record to do them justice. They're a top ~10 pitching dev org for sure. I'll try my best to highlight them more in the future.
Love the video! Don't really know what I'm talking about, but I feel like I remember some cases where pitchers have been stunted somewhat by organizational philosophy too
Reminds me of the pirates a while back pushing sinkers pretty heavily, when their top two young pitchers were Charlie Morton and Gerrit Cole. Then those pitchers immediately had success with other teams (read: the astros) when they ditched their sinker and relied on their already good 4 seams.
Well done. Interview some of the pitching coaches from each of the top pitch dev orgs. I'd really like to hear what Mark Prior has to say particular on all the injuries his team has gone through
It’s been a thought of mine for a while! Teams just generally don’t like more integral PD types speaking on the record about things. They’d have to run it through the MLB PR side, which is always a hassle
@@LanceBroz That makes sense and it's not surprising - at least from the teams/mlb perspective. I've been trying to find any information on the Jays HPD (High Performance Department) that was put in place by Shapiro years ago. Impossible. Really appreaciate what you do here and look forward to more.
It is true that there are org fingerprints but fastball velocity and walk rates don’t inherently negate individualization. Cotham , Friedman, Depoto, Elias most likely pursue collective org objectives while still addressing individual pitcher needs.
Sure, fair point. All orgs are going to tell you they're individualizing and pursing objectives. We still see clear distinctions between orgs with ~15-20 of them being pretty average at everything. That tells me that individualizing doesn't really work from a zoomed-out perspective. The better orgs do certain things really well and either push or ID that to enhance what they believe to be an advantage. It's a zoomed-out take with flaws, I get that. I think your point is spot on when the job of a pitching coach is to sit down with 20% of the pitchers in an org and make each one of them better. In a way, the title was a way for me to trojan horse talking about this data. I needed something spicy! haha
Another great video Lance! Curious what you think about the cubs organizational pitching development since I would assume you have a deep understanding of the org from being w/ marquee. I'm a cubs fan and have followed them heavily(though mainly at the MLB level); feels like they are the only org that is super high on that cut ride fastball shape. Idk if I think its the best philosophy but for some guys it definitely works but feel like it isn't perfect. Also unsure how intentional it is with guys like Keegan Thompson being a cut-ride guy for the first time in 2024(but it probably is intentional with guys like Porter Hodge). Also feel like they are way in on the splitter which has turned out pretty well imo. But I also felt like they were/are too high on the sweeper. Mainly when they traded for Wesneski, but hopefully they have realized that a guy with one decent pitch can't make a great starter, especially when his pitch is that sweeper at ~78-80mph(as a starter; though he still hasn't been great out of the bullpen). Those are my observations, but I'm curious what your analysis would been(if you are allowed to share) since you have covered the cubs and I know you have done lots of segments on minor league guys as well.
Thanks! My impressions of the Cubs minors are… -generally high velo -pretty high BB rate (similar to HOU) -bias toward sweep on slider (contrasts with LAD/TB) And anecdotally yes, I believe they are very in on non-traditional fastball shape. Cut ride (Horton, Neely, Hodge, etc) or low slot ride or higher slot sink (Assad) Anything that isn’t standard from shape perspective they like. My theory is that they believe pitchers have more control over ball in play results than big data might say, perhaps that cause they know they can get away with more in their park? As far as splitters, they seem to in on them, but at the same time, they don’t use them a lot. They tend to be a very fastball usage heavy org, which I don’t generally love, but lines up with what Carter saw in CLE.
@@LanceBrozI know you've said before that the Cubs are a high fastball usage org and was wondering if that correlated with Breslow leaving at all? A lot of Cubs media seemed to like what he was doing with their pitching infrastructure so its interesting that the Cubs and Red Sox are currently so opposed on fastball usage. Just wondering if you had any insights on that.
Love your work, Lance. We know that generally younger pitchers have less control and less ability to add/integrate new pitches, so it makes sense that in MiLB many orgs show broad tendencies, ie it’s difficult to individualize too much. Would there be different results just looking at aaa + mlb for example, or aa and up? Perhaps it’s more acute later in the dev process when orgs feel comfortable pitchers can handle individualized changes? Thanks 🙏🏻
Hey! Thanks. Yeah, the is is a good call. I do think breaking things down by early and late development could unearth some trends I would bet the biggest thing that differentiates between organizations is when certain pitches are thrown more / etc. When are cutters added? When does velo jump most often? Which orgs are best at improving control through BB rate? I do think generally you’d see a lot of the same trends, however. Like LAD and TB pushing slider velo, etc My hypothesis would be that the best orgs have philosophies that are similar from level to level All good points and something I’ll think about for the future
Excellent content! Surprised to see the cardinals high in velo. Are they also high in slider velo like the rays or the dodgers? I doubt it, but interesting stuff. I definitely think the major league philosophy for STL is pitch to contact and control, so surprising to see velo a priority in the minors. As a cardinal fan I personally think they're behind almost all these orgs in player dev. Seems like they just chase soft tossing control guys and high obp guys w/ good defense on offense. Thanks again for posting!
STL is average in SL velo, so lines up with your perception. I thought they were more back of the pack, but I’m encouraged by the BB results and velo. Issue for some of these middle pack teams is that they just have better arms throwing right now so their numbers look a bit better. My hope was that this evened out with the big sample but given the results of like SEA, LAD, NYY, etc I don’t think it did. Hard for me to control for arm quality and whether the presence of arm quality is more PD or acquisition. That’s my guess on the Cardinals but not 100% sure.
Hey Lance, what do you think about the Dbacks in terms of pitching development? As a fan, it seems that they bring up a lot of guys with average or below average 4 seams (movement and velo), but good offspeeds.
I think they have some good people on their MLB staff, I don't have much on their MiLB stuff and they don't really seem to pop in anything in terms of results or usage. Wish I had more for you, but not much stands out.
For the Dodger's high walk rate you mentioned that maybe good stuff is just harder to control. That makes sense. In addition to that, I wonder if, command aside, a high whiff rate also just leads to more walks? Call it the Blake Snell effect. Suppose there are two pitchers with equally good control. They have identical rates of throwing strikes. But one of them has much better stuff, leading to a much higher whiff rate. A whiff for the 1st or 2nd strike keeps the at bat going, leaving open the possibility of a walk. Whereas by not getting a whiff, the ball in play is an out or a hit and either way ends the AB without a walk. No idea, talking out my arse. Should be an easy thing to check though. If you have whiff rate on that minor league data you're showing that'd be the first thing to check.
Enjoy your analysis. Would you be able to do a higher level anaylsis on the Toronto Blue Jays? The past 2-3 years have had them underperform by a huge gap. My mind is kinda boggled by why, but have a hunch that it's toxic management from the top down.
I probably won’t do a video on them, but they’re interesting. They have some huge stuff arms in the minors, just can never seem to get everything out of them. Would bet it’s also a top-down thing. But they seem to be making some changes. I just am always skeptical of thinking minor changes will fix systemic issues. Need more overhaul like MIA, STL seem to be doing
What do you think of Travis Sykora? Do you think #92 in mlbs top 100 is fair, what do you think his upside is? Do you believe he is future ace material or are there some glaring flaws of his you see
Every prospects exists on a range of outcomes. Some probability they’re ace, some probability they’re back end, some probability they bust. So I’m not going to be able to tell you definitively. I think that’s just a poor way to approach something inherently very risky (pitching). Sykora looks good. He’s a weird release guy. I think they should’ve promoted him because the Class A level is filled with pretty terrible hitting. High A is where you start to understand how stuff is playing relative to reasonable talent. So he’s tough to gauge without a better sample of hitters opposing him. Right now, the chance he’s an ace is incredibly low but not 0 because the stuff looks good-he sits 95, he has a far 3B side release, and he has 6.8’ extension So relative to his competition at class a , he has a much better chance of making the bigs imo
Dodgers also have one of the best pitching staffs by ERA and FIP from 2021-2024 🤷♂️ Definitely a connection between velo and injuries, but it’s also the biggest indicator that links a pitcher to success. Tough balance to strike
@@LanceBroz yeah, how much velo is too much velo? And how do you convince pitchers to actually throw slower and save their hands even if it means sacrificing the best possible results (and more money in the future)? There is no simple solution to this... But even Andrew Friedman admitted last month that it is something that bothers him and that they will try to address this offseason.
Great & Informative Video. My ears are focused on the information .... but why are my eyes locked in on your eyebrows 😂 your ( R ) brow looks wider than the ( L ) brow 🤨 Great Video. Ty
Thanks, you are definitely the best pitching youtuber in terms of analytics and high-level development
Appreciate it 🫡 thanks for watching
definitely the best and most knowledgeable pitching analyst on the platform
Fascinating stuff, Lance! Is it mostly coincidence that the Dodgers push velo and needed 40 pitchers to get through this season with 3 needing TJ surgery? Thx for sharing your incredible analyses!
I'd love to hear some more elaboration on the Brewers pitching development. You had them in the "results, unique?" box but didn't really talk about them as much.
Yeah, funny there, but I recorded this video and then realized that I completely forgot about MIL, who if I had to classify them, generally like outlier release/shape characteristics. So I just tossed them in the "results" bucket. I unfortunately just didn't have time to go back and re-record to do them justice. They're a top ~10 pitching dev org for sure. I'll try my best to highlight them more in the future.
@@LanceBroz Thanks for the reply! Love your content.
Astros were mentioned so I’m happy
🫡🫡🫡
Love the video! Don't really know what I'm talking about, but I feel like I remember some cases where pitchers have been stunted somewhat by organizational philosophy too
Reminds me of the pirates a while back pushing sinkers pretty heavily, when their top two young pitchers were Charlie Morton and Gerrit Cole. Then those pitchers immediately had success with other teams (read: the astros) when they ditched their sinker and relied on their already good 4 seams.
@@NathanielHumphreys Yeah, that's a great example!
Well done. Interview some of the pitching coaches from each of the top pitch dev orgs. I'd really like to hear what Mark Prior has to say particular on all the injuries his team has gone through
It’s been a thought of mine for a while! Teams just generally don’t like more integral PD types speaking on the record about things. They’d have to run it through the MLB PR side, which is always a hassle
@@LanceBroz That makes sense and it's not surprising - at least from the teams/mlb perspective. I've been trying to find any information on the Jays HPD (High Performance Department) that was put in place by Shapiro years ago. Impossible.
Really appreaciate what you do here and look forward to more.
It is true that there are org fingerprints but fastball velocity and walk rates don’t inherently negate individualization. Cotham , Friedman, Depoto, Elias most likely pursue collective org objectives while still addressing individual pitcher needs.
Sure, fair point. All orgs are going to tell you they're individualizing and pursing objectives. We still see clear distinctions between orgs with ~15-20 of them being pretty average at everything. That tells me that individualizing doesn't really work from a zoomed-out perspective. The better orgs do certain things really well and either push or ID that to enhance what they believe to be an advantage.
It's a zoomed-out take with flaws, I get that. I think your point is spot on when the job of a pitching coach is to sit down with 20% of the pitchers in an org and make each one of them better. In a way, the title was a way for me to trojan horse talking about this data. I needed something spicy! haha
Another great video Lance! Curious what you think about the cubs organizational pitching development since I would assume you have a deep understanding of the org from being w/ marquee.
I'm a cubs fan and have followed them heavily(though mainly at the MLB level); feels like they are the only org that is super high on that cut ride fastball shape. Idk if I think its the best philosophy but for some guys it definitely works but feel like it isn't perfect. Also unsure how intentional it is with guys like Keegan Thompson being a cut-ride guy for the first time in 2024(but it probably is intentional with guys like Porter Hodge).
Also feel like they are way in on the splitter which has turned out pretty well imo. But I also felt like they were/are too high on the sweeper. Mainly when they traded for Wesneski, but hopefully they have realized that a guy with one decent pitch can't make a great starter, especially when his pitch is that sweeper at ~78-80mph(as a starter; though he still hasn't been great out of the bullpen).
Those are my observations, but I'm curious what your analysis would been(if you are allowed to share) since you have covered the cubs and I know you have done lots of segments on minor league guys as well.
Thanks! My impressions of the Cubs minors are…
-generally high velo
-pretty high BB rate (similar to HOU)
-bias toward sweep on slider (contrasts with LAD/TB)
And anecdotally yes, I believe they are very in on non-traditional fastball shape. Cut ride (Horton, Neely, Hodge, etc) or low slot ride or higher slot sink (Assad)
Anything that isn’t standard from shape perspective they like. My theory is that they believe pitchers have more control over ball in play results than big data might say, perhaps that cause they know they can get away with more in their park?
As far as splitters, they seem to in on them, but at the same time, they don’t use them a lot. They tend to be a very fastball usage heavy org, which I don’t generally love, but lines up with what Carter saw in CLE.
@@LanceBrozI know you've said before that the Cubs are a high fastball usage org and was wondering if that correlated with Breslow leaving at all? A lot of Cubs media seemed to like what he was doing with their pitching infrastructure so its interesting that the Cubs and Red Sox are currently so opposed on fastball usage. Just wondering if you had any insights on that.
Love your work, Lance.
We know that generally younger pitchers have less control and less ability to add/integrate new pitches, so it makes sense that in MiLB many orgs show broad tendencies, ie it’s difficult to individualize too much.
Would there be different results just looking at aaa + mlb for example, or aa and up? Perhaps it’s more acute later in the dev process when orgs feel comfortable pitchers can handle individualized changes?
Thanks 🙏🏻
Hey! Thanks. Yeah, the is is a good call. I do think breaking things down by early and late development could unearth some trends
I would bet the biggest thing that differentiates between organizations is when certain pitches are thrown more / etc. When are cutters added? When does velo jump most often? Which orgs are best at improving control through BB rate?
I do think generally you’d see a lot of the same trends, however. Like LAD and TB pushing slider velo, etc
My hypothesis would be that the best orgs have philosophies that are similar from level to level
All good points and something I’ll think about for the future
Excellent content! Surprised to see the cardinals high in velo. Are they also high in slider velo like the rays or the dodgers? I doubt it, but interesting stuff.
I definitely think the major league philosophy for STL is pitch to contact and control, so surprising to see velo a priority in the minors. As a cardinal fan I personally think they're behind almost all these orgs in player dev. Seems like they just chase soft tossing control guys and high obp guys w/ good defense on offense.
Thanks again for posting!
STL is average in SL velo, so lines up with your perception.
I thought they were more back of the pack, but I’m encouraged by the BB results and velo.
Issue for some of these middle pack teams is that they just have better arms throwing right now so their numbers look a bit better. My hope was that this evened out with the big sample but given the results of like SEA, LAD, NYY, etc I don’t think it did. Hard for me to control for arm quality and whether the presence of arm quality is more PD or acquisition.
That’s my guess on the Cardinals but not 100% sure.
Hey Lance, what do you think about the Dbacks in terms of pitching development? As a fan, it seems that they bring up a lot of guys with average or below average 4 seams (movement and velo), but good offspeeds.
I think they have some good people on their MLB staff, I don't have much on their MiLB stuff and they don't really seem to pop in anything in terms of results or usage. Wish I had more for you, but not much stands out.
@@LanceBroz This aged pretty badly since the entire MLB staff got fired
For the Dodger's high walk rate you mentioned that maybe good stuff is just harder to control. That makes sense.
In addition to that, I wonder if, command aside, a high whiff rate also just leads to more walks? Call it the Blake Snell effect. Suppose there are two pitchers with equally good control. They have identical rates of throwing strikes. But one of them has much better stuff, leading to a much higher whiff rate. A whiff for the 1st or 2nd strike keeps the at bat going, leaving open the possibility of a walk. Whereas by not getting a whiff, the ball in play is an out or a hit and either way ends the AB without a walk.
No idea, talking out my arse. Should be an easy thing to check though. If you have whiff rate on that minor league data you're showing that'd be the first thing to check.
Enjoy your analysis. Would you be able to do a higher level anaylsis on the Toronto Blue Jays? The past 2-3 years have had them underperform by a huge gap. My mind is kinda boggled by why, but have a hunch that it's toxic management from the top down.
I probably won’t do a video on them, but they’re interesting. They have some huge stuff arms in the minors, just can never seem to get everything out of them.
Would bet it’s also a top-down thing. But they seem to be making some changes. I just am always skeptical of thinking minor changes will fix systemic issues. Need more overhaul like MIA, STL seem to be doing
Thoughts on how to get an internship in pitching development?
Coach, make content, network
The big 3 of standing out amongst a ton of other people who want to do the same 👍
What do you think of Travis Sykora? Do you think #92 in mlbs top 100 is fair, what do you think his upside is? Do you believe he is future ace material or are there some glaring flaws of his you see
Every prospects exists on a range of outcomes. Some probability they’re ace, some probability they’re back end, some probability they bust. So I’m not going to be able to tell you definitively. I think that’s just a poor way to approach something inherently very risky (pitching).
Sykora looks good. He’s a weird release guy. I think they should’ve promoted him
because the Class A level is filled with pretty terrible hitting. High A is where you start to understand how stuff is playing relative to reasonable talent.
So he’s tough to gauge without a better sample of hitters opposing him.
Right now, the chance he’s an ace is incredibly low but not 0 because the stuff looks good-he sits 95, he has a far 3B side release, and he has 6.8’ extension
So relative to his competition at class a , he has a much better chance of making the bigs imo
@@LanceBroz thanks
Dodgers are throwing the hardest - Dodgers also have their pitching staff devastated by injuries... 🤔
Dodgers also have one of the best pitching staffs by ERA and FIP from 2021-2024 🤷♂️
Definitely a connection between velo and injuries, but it’s also the biggest indicator that links a pitcher to success. Tough balance to strike
@@LanceBroz yeah, how much velo is too much velo? And how do you convince pitchers to actually throw slower and save their hands even if it means sacrificing the best possible results (and more money in the future)?
There is no simple solution to this... But even Andrew Friedman admitted last month that it is something that bothers him and that they will try to address this offseason.
Great & Informative Video. My ears are focused on the information .... but why are my eyes locked in on your eyebrows 😂 your ( R ) brow looks wider than the ( L ) brow 🤨 Great Video. Ty
😂😂😂