I would absolutely love to see your take on the Guardians and their pitching philosophy over the years. Feels like they are right up there with the Rays in pitching development
I want to learn pitching on a deeper level like you Lance. I feel like it will be more enjoyable to watch games when you know what's going on. Where do I start?
Start reading FanGraphs. Simple Sabermetrics on RUclips has some great introductory content. Ask questions from there. 👍 Always here to help if needed. It’s easier to get going than you think. Lot of smart people out there making things pretty digestible
Nuanced question, yeah. You want some separation between everything. Average four-seam shape from average release RHP is 16" vert with 8" arm-side at 94. Average cutter is 8" vert with 1-2" glove side at 89-90. That sets the baseline for you to see how close you can get to the fastball without causing issues for the pitcher blurring the shapes in their throw to the point where they lose fastball feel (although you can probably play with cue / orientation to help prevent this). We've also seen the Mariners give two pitchers cutters that are pretty close in shape to their four-seam (Gilbert and Miller). Maybe they see something different there? Something to explore perhaps in another video
What would be the conclusion of having a high Stuff+ but a high ERA? Does it have to do with the pitches that didn't have a high Stuff+ that generated more runs?
In that case I would bet the pitcher is just young, which is kind of the Taj case here There’s some disconnect-tipping, sequencing, no 3rd pitch, no 2nd pitch he can strike-that doesn’t all the Stuff+ to actually manifest. Extended time where ERA is high and Stuff is high would be interesting. Unsure if we have anybody like that? If so, I would bet it’s a big HR issue
7:35 I wonder if it's noteworthy that given his release point, Bradley is very behind the ball and the difference in horizontal movement between his pitches was both smaller last season, and the lack of a Splitter threat behind in the count could make RHH even more comfortable than usual in 2023. Out of hand it seems significantly harder for a RHH to anticipate whether 2024 Bradley's behind in count offering will be in the zone or not given both increased Splitter usage and bigger HB difference between all 3, whereas a righty could have been more confident putting an "A Swing" on Bradley's 2023 offering.
Good points, yeah. I think I kind of agree but then I look and see that he isn’t dominating RHH behind per se? So was it all just to be an average pitcher behind in count? I don’t hate that I guess There just aren’t a lot of ways for efficient fastball guys to add sinkers for behind in count usage/you don’t see it a lot. Unlocking how they manage those danger counts seems pretty important
@@LanceBroz Yeah, I wasn't trying to make it out like he's a behind in count monster, but without me personally knowing all/most pitchers statistics behind, going from seemingly untenably bad to league average looks like a win even if it isn't ideal. I'm super excited to see if TB has more in the tank they plan to try out with him, though I know he's pretty limited in what more might be possible to add.
Since the Rays aren’t ever going to overly invest in their players and will spin them off before ARB or FA do you think they will just use them until they break? If so, how would you approach them from a fantasy perspective? If you’re in a league with 3 year contracts with 2 year extensions would it ever be prudent to extend any of their arms beyond the 3 year contract window. And last, would any of their arms undergoing TJ or internal brace be worth spending on after the procedure?
Yeah, good q. I don’t play much dynasty, so I can’t speak to how I would operate. Some of the sharper orgs that have attractive pitchers tend to be accepting of more risk. So it’s going to be tough to stay away from their arms. And I generally think that injury prediction is futile aside from looking at who has already been injured and going from there. I’d keep Taj. I’d also try to keep/hold McClanahan. Springs and Rasmussen are the types I’d probably be willing to throw back or only put 1 year contracts on.
It relates to the idea that most of the time with stuff models they're pooling LHP and RHP shapes together. And for lefties, the theory is that a lot of their advantage is angles / hitters just having a smaller mental map of pitches from lefties in their lifetime. In a very broad sense, you would guess that if a lefty created similar shapes to a righty, the lefties shapes would perform better. I'm unsure if it's backed up in the data, however. Maybe a video idea for another day!
@LanceBroz super interesting. I def get the smaller mental map theory. Thanks for the insight and i hope there IS a video on it. Great work, Lance, thanks!
The genesis of this, to me, is that they tend to be more tolerant of risk with pitchers. Guys with preexisting injuries, etc Really need to control for that risk when thinking about which teams have pitchers that are injured more Velo has connection to injuries, so maybe your point has merit, but if it means better pitches… probably a risk worth taking?
Push the velocity, grip it as hard as you can and throw the crap out of it. How long until they all have Tommy John? They will surely all just break really soon, right?
Have you considered doing a video on why a pitcher is over-performing their stuff plus numbers? A guy like Andrew Abbott, it makes no sense why he does not have a 5-6 ERA.
I mention it in the video a bit, but I believe it's connected to hand placement at release and as the individual says who also responded to you. On the other hand (pun intended) the league is understanding seam orientation pretty well now to try and create more shapes. But seam effects also have more possibility the less spin efficient a pitch is, which is basically saying don't get behind the ball The circle of life haha
I would absolutely love to see your take on the Guardians and their pitching philosophy over the years. Feels like they are right up there with the Rays in pitching development
I mean, that WAS the topic of his precious video
@@sale7423 oh cool!! i’ll check it out thanks :)
Yep, it's right here: ruclips.net/video/E_jNUYcsjE8/видео.html
@@LanceBroz Oh nice!!! Putting this on at work as we speak lol. Thanks man
I learn so much from your videos. Keep up the great content
Appreciate that, thanks!
Underrated RUclipsr right here!! Gonna blow up soon with the level of in depth analysis you have. Earned my sub
Appreciate it! Thanks 🫡🫡🫡
Don't know if this is relevant, but Rays have one of the most-staffed analytics departments in baseball.
Yep, it definitely plays into things from a decision-making standpoint I bet 👍
I want to learn pitching on a deeper level like you Lance. I feel like it will be more enjoyable to watch games when you know what's going on. Where do I start?
Start reading FanGraphs. Simple Sabermetrics on RUclips has some great introductory content. Ask questions from there. 👍
Always here to help if needed. It’s easier to get going than you think. Lot of smart people out there making things pretty digestible
In general, is there a point where that cutter starts being thrown too hard with too much lift? is that largely dependent on fastball shape?
Nuanced question, yeah. You want some separation between everything. Average four-seam shape from average release RHP is 16" vert with 8" arm-side at 94. Average cutter is 8" vert with 1-2" glove side at 89-90. That sets the baseline for you to see how close you can get to the fastball without causing issues for the pitcher blurring the shapes in their throw to the point where they lose fastball feel (although you can probably play with cue / orientation to help prevent this).
We've also seen the Mariners give two pitchers cutters that are pretty close in shape to their four-seam (Gilbert and Miller). Maybe they see something different there?
Something to explore perhaps in another video
Great video....content and delivery (pun somewhat intended) is plus
🫡🫡🫡
Taj is HIM ❤
🔥🔥🔥
What would be the conclusion of having a high Stuff+ but a high ERA? Does it have to do with the pitches that didn't have a high Stuff+ that generated more runs?
In that case I would bet the pitcher is just young, which is kind of the Taj case here
There’s some disconnect-tipping, sequencing, no 3rd pitch, no 2nd pitch he can strike-that doesn’t all the Stuff+ to actually manifest.
Extended time where ERA is high and Stuff is high would be interesting. Unsure if we have anybody like that? If so, I would bet it’s a big HR issue
Another banger video
Thanks!
7:35 I wonder if it's noteworthy that given his release point, Bradley is very behind the ball and the difference in horizontal movement between his pitches was both smaller last season, and the lack of a Splitter threat behind in the count could make RHH even more comfortable than usual in 2023. Out of hand it seems significantly harder for a RHH to anticipate whether 2024 Bradley's behind in count offering will be in the zone or not given both increased Splitter usage and bigger HB difference between all 3, whereas a righty could have been more confident putting an "A Swing" on Bradley's 2023 offering.
Good points, yeah.
I think I kind of agree but then I look and see that he isn’t dominating RHH behind per se? So was it all just to be an average pitcher behind in count? I don’t hate that I guess
There just aren’t a lot of ways for efficient fastball guys to add sinkers for behind in count usage/you don’t see it a lot. Unlocking how they manage those danger counts seems pretty important
@@LanceBroz Yeah, I wasn't trying to make it out like he's a behind in count monster, but without me personally knowing all/most pitchers statistics behind, going from seemingly untenably bad to league average looks like a win even if it isn't ideal. I'm super excited to see if TB has more in the tank they plan to try out with him, though I know he's pretty limited in what more might be possible to add.
Hayden Birdsong video please 🙏🙏
I've been thinking of doing a "kick changeup" video, which is where you spike the grip. He'll be in that!
@@LanceBroz Yesss thanks
Since the Rays aren’t ever going to overly invest in their players and will spin them off before ARB or FA do you think they will just use them until they break?
If so, how would you approach them from a fantasy perspective?
If you’re in a league with 3 year contracts with 2 year extensions would it ever be prudent to extend any of their arms beyond the 3 year contract window.
And last, would any of their arms undergoing TJ or internal brace be worth spending on after the procedure?
Yeah, good q. I don’t play much dynasty, so I can’t speak to how I would operate.
Some of the sharper orgs that have attractive pitchers tend to be accepting of more risk. So it’s going to be tough to stay away from their arms.
And I generally think that injury prediction is futile aside from looking at who has already been injured and going from there.
I’d keep Taj. I’d also try to keep/hold McClanahan.
Springs and Rasmussen are the types I’d probably be willing to throw back or only put 1 year contracts on.
Would love to hear about how stuff+ devalues...or misinterprets LHP!
It relates to the idea that most of the time with stuff models they're pooling LHP and RHP shapes together. And for lefties, the theory is that a lot of their advantage is angles / hitters just having a smaller mental map of pitches from lefties in their lifetime. In a very broad sense, you would guess that if a lefty created similar shapes to a righty, the lefties shapes would perform better. I'm unsure if it's backed up in the data, however.
Maybe a video idea for another day!
@LanceBroz super interesting. I def get the smaller mental map theory. Thanks for the insight and i hope there IS a video on it.
Great work, Lance, thanks!
For some reason i think rays and Dodgers have the most pitchers who needs tommy john surgery..Could that come from throwing the slider harder?
The genesis of this, to me, is that they tend to be more tolerant of risk with pitchers. Guys with preexisting injuries, etc
Really need to control for that risk when thinking about which teams have pitchers that are injured more
Velo has connection to injuries, so maybe your point has merit, but if it means better pitches… probably a risk worth taking?
@@LanceBroz i feel u ..great vid btw keep up the good work
Push the velocity, grip it as hard as you can and throw the crap out of it. How long until they all have Tommy John? They will surely all just break really soon, right?
Have you considered doing a video on why a pitcher is over-performing their stuff plus numbers? A guy like Andrew Abbott, it makes no sense why he does not have a 5-6 ERA.
Why does the high ride 4SFB limit a pitchers ability for breaking balls? Just biomechanics?
I think it will have to do with pronation/supination bias.
I mention it in the video a bit, but I believe it's connected to hand placement at release and as the individual says who also responded to you.
On the other hand (pun intended) the league is understanding seam orientation pretty well now to try and create more shapes. But seam effects also have more possibility the less spin efficient a pitch is, which is basically saying don't get behind the ball
The circle of life haha