Holmes has a really nice sinker-sweeper mix like Michael King, but unless he's got another pitch (aside from his SL) up his sleeve he can command well I think trying to convert him to a starter is more of an experiment than a thing worth a shot. Still a really interesting idea!
I think the sinker plays better to LHH than people think, generally those with a ton of drop do. So may not really need the 4s, but I think some kind of SPL/CH would help with the swing-miss.
Already has 4 pitches (SK/SL/Sweeper/FB), we’re tinkering with the idea of adding a CH (which is good in pens) and/or a CT, which should work well from his supination bias.
@@Angeldnavac Grade means nothing if you don't have consistent command, and those grades are likely inflated by the fact that he doesn't have to throw those pitches 30-50 times per game each. I cannot see Holmes thriving as a SP even remotely rn.
The Mets just signed Holmes as a starter, so you're not the only one seeing these things. I agree with you that you'd have to give him a off-speed pitch to be a viable SP, though his role as a one-inning guy makes me skeptical (compare that to fellow ex-Yankee RP turned SP Michael King, who was a starter in the minors and a long reliever in the majors before the end of 2023)
Hi Lance, thanks for tackling this topic. In addition to these two guys, do you have any thoughts on the potential conversion for Griffin Jax and Dedniel Nunez (the latter of whom only really throws two pitches, but has been playing with a sinker and change)? I found from a cursory search that both seem to check all three of those preliminary boxes you listed. Would love to know if you have any insight on those two, as well as for Nate Pearson who I'm a little less high on but apparently the Cubs are planning to try to start. Edit: Just heard you mention Jax in the final 30 seconds of the video, glad to know I was not that far off!
Yeah! Jax is a super obvious conversion type, especially with MIN needing some SPs. I just wanted to focus on FA RPs in this vid so I chose Holmes and Hoffman. Nunez reminds me a lot of Ben Brown without the height. 2-pitch mix that’s pretty platoon neutral because of the shapes (slider is a death ball). He sinker shape *looks* good but I think he’s cutting it too much and velo is down unnecessarily. But I like the baseline of the changeup I think he’s a constant for a conversion, yeah. Just might run into problems with the 4S, like Ben Brown has, but maybe the lower release helps him a bit. Pearson is an odd one. He’s continually underperformed his peripherals for most of his career. Feels like a perennial “should be better” guy, but I often think the more sample we get of ERA, which can be crazy noisy, the more reliable it can become. We’re probably not there YET but we’re creeping towards it. I’m fine from a return-on-investment standpoint of trying to start Pearson. I just don’t think it works, especially if Wrigley plays more neutral next year, he’s going to give up a bunch of home runs.
As a Yankee fan I always thought Clay got beat on his sinker. It’s a good pitch but it always felt like he was at his best when he was throwing that sweeper and slider more. I think it’d be an interesting experiment but I’m not sure how much I’d believe in it. However you are a lot smarter than me so it’ll probably work out.
Fuji can’t find the zone. I think it’s as simple as that. I’d send him to Driveline and give him an entire offseason of command training. Hope it bore some fruit. Maybe LAD would find something in his delivery to help? Although I’m mostly skeptical that small mechanical tweaks would cut his BB rate in half. Basically unplayable if he’s walking ~22%, no matter how fun the stuff looks.
On another note, if you're intereated/have the time, I'm curious what your thoughts are on Will Warren. I feel like he is a strong candidate for a Yankees SP->RP transformation. His Sinker-Sweeper combo remidns me of Ottavino and Michael King, albeit from a higher arm angle. I feel like if they full-force focus him on being a RP (which is likely given that the rotation has no openings for him atm) he could find similar success, and then maybe down the road could even be a candidate for the SP->RP->SP career trajectory of guys like Lugo and King.
I do like Warren a lot. He’s one of the few guys with an above average SK and 4S per stuff models, which is often hard to do. I’m a bit torn on whether I’d prefer him as SP or RP. I get going with the latter and just leaning on returning some value, but I think he’s worth keeping as an SP and figuring out some of the kinks that prevented him from being productive. Feels like those King/Schmidt/Warren types take a year or two to figure out their LHH approach.
I would like to see Kopech start again ! But you got tony ,dustin may ,walker ,ohtani ,yama (snell ,fried ) probably sasaki and pretty sure they could trade for crochet
I think Clay Holmes would be a terrible idea. He has horrendously inconsistent command of his pitches and we can easily expect a 1-3MPH average fastball/sinker velocity decrease if he switches to the rotation. I can't see this one tbh Lance.
Horrendously inconsistent command is a pretty large exaggeration to me. He’s run an ~8% walk rate for 3 years and our main proxy for “command” via FanGraphs thinks he’s average Gotta back up the eye test with data! And vice versa
SP not RP. Even tho teams have tried and failed. 1)Try mechanical changes (they did. Saw improvements. Still not enough) 2)change grip. Did. Still not enough. And it has less movement. Soo, less difference in pitch mix. More likely to get hit if batter GUESSES wrong cause doesn't leave bat path. 3) with no logical reason. Teams should try SP to save money. With evidence why. "Here's how he ranked as reliever. Let's have him rank even WORSE as SP. I hate this guy being associated with Cubs. Analytics are f*@'ed
Here after the Mets signed Holmes to be a starter. Fantastic video Lance! Highly informative!
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Lance continues to be the sharpest public-facing baseball mind. Great stuff!
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Appreciate the video great stuff!!
Holmes has a really nice sinker-sweeper mix like Michael King, but unless he's got another pitch (aside from his SL) up his sleeve he can command well I think trying to convert him to a starter is more of an experiment than a thing worth a shot. Still a really interesting idea!
He has a elite sinker 2 different well grades sliders, and threw couple of four seam fastballs in the post season.
I think the sinker plays better to LHH than people think, generally those with a ton of drop do. So may not really need the 4s, but I think some kind of SPL/CH would help with the swing-miss.
Already has 4 pitches (SK/SL/Sweeper/FB), we’re tinkering with the idea of adding a CH (which is good in pens) and/or a CT, which should work well from his supination bias.
@@Angeldnavac Grade means nothing if you don't have consistent command, and those grades are likely inflated by the fact that he doesn't have to throw those pitches 30-50 times per game each. I cannot see Holmes thriving as a SP even remotely rn.
Finally somebody else who doesnt hate on Clay holmes
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Great analysis as usual!
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The Mets just signed Holmes as a starter, so you're not the only one seeing these things. I agree with you that you'd have to give him a off-speed pitch to be a viable SP, though his role as a one-inning guy makes me skeptical (compare that to fellow ex-Yankee RP turned SP Michael King, who was a starter in the minors and a long reliever in the majors before the end of 2023)
Keep up the great work Lance!
Thanks!
Nice video!
Awesome vid lance!
Thanks!
Came after the signing to say right on the Money
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Now that hes on the Mets I have to think hes going to add a splitter and a cutter into his mix.
Already has a gyro SL, probably no need for a cutter, but I see some kinda CH/SPL for surr
Hi Lance, thanks for tackling this topic. In addition to these two guys, do you have any thoughts on the potential conversion for Griffin Jax and Dedniel Nunez (the latter of whom only really throws two pitches, but has been playing with a sinker and change)? I found from a cursory search that both seem to check all three of those preliminary boxes you listed. Would love to know if you have any insight on those two, as well as for Nate Pearson who I'm a little less high on but apparently the Cubs are planning to try to start.
Edit: Just heard you mention Jax in the final 30 seconds of the video, glad to know I was not that far off!
Yeah! Jax is a super obvious conversion type, especially with MIN needing some SPs. I just wanted to focus on FA RPs in this vid so I chose Holmes and Hoffman.
Nunez reminds me a lot of Ben Brown without the height. 2-pitch mix that’s pretty platoon neutral because of the shapes (slider is a death ball). He sinker shape *looks* good but I think he’s cutting it too much and velo is down unnecessarily. But I like the baseline of the changeup
I think he’s a constant for a conversion, yeah. Just might run into problems with the 4S, like Ben Brown has, but maybe the lower release helps him a bit.
Pearson is an odd one. He’s continually underperformed his peripherals for most of his career. Feels like a perennial “should be better” guy, but I often think the more sample we get of ERA, which can be crazy noisy, the more reliable it can become. We’re probably not there YET but we’re creeping towards it. I’m fine from a return-on-investment standpoint of trying to start Pearson. I just don’t think it works, especially if Wrigley plays more neutral next year, he’s going to give up a bunch of home runs.
As a Yankee fan I always thought Clay got beat on his sinker. It’s a good pitch but it always felt like he was at his best when he was throwing that sweeper and slider more. I think it’d be an interesting experiment but I’m not sure how much I’d believe in it. However you are a lot smarter than me so it’ll probably work out.
Random question but what do you think of Shintaro Fujinami and could the dodgers make him into an elite arm?
Fuji can’t find the zone. I think it’s as simple as that.
I’d send him to Driveline and give him an entire offseason of command training. Hope it bore some fruit. Maybe LAD would find something in his delivery to help? Although I’m mostly skeptical that small mechanical tweaks would cut his BB rate in half.
Basically unplayable if he’s walking ~22%, no matter how fun the stuff looks.
@@LanceBroz Thanks for the reply and I think you are exactly right, it just feel criminal to let that stuff go to waste...
On another note, if you're intereated/have the time, I'm curious what your thoughts are on Will Warren. I feel like he is a strong candidate for a Yankees SP->RP transformation. His Sinker-Sweeper combo remidns me of Ottavino and Michael King, albeit from a higher arm angle. I feel like if they full-force focus him on being a RP (which is likely given that the rotation has no openings for him atm) he could find similar success, and then maybe down the road could even be a candidate for the SP->RP->SP career trajectory of guys like Lugo and King.
I do like Warren a lot. He’s one of the few guys with an above average SK and 4S per stuff models, which is often hard to do.
I’m a bit torn on whether I’d prefer him as SP or RP. I get going with the latter and just leaning on returning some value, but I think he’s worth keeping as an SP and figuring out some of the kinks that prevented him from being productive.
Feels like those King/Schmidt/Warren types take a year or two to figure out their LHH approach.
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Let’s hope you’re right about Holmes. Those small market Mets need innings haha
Haha I didn’t realize how little they had solidified in their rotation prior to this offseason starting
The Mets have thrown a lot of money towards player development in recent years and a ton of that towards their “pitching lab.” It seems they agree.
Stearns heard you
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Can't be lab bc a guy has to reach those true max end ranges - either super high intent day or a game
What do you think about the twins trying out griffin Jax as a starter?
Yeah! I like it, I mention him at the end of video actually. I wanted to focus on free agents in this but if I expanded out Jax would be #1
Going from the windup is not awarded so fuck it go from the stretch full time and fast pitch
I would like to see Kopech start again ! But you got tony ,dustin may ,walker ,ohtani ,yama (snell ,fried ) probably sasaki and pretty sure they could trade for crochet
Dodgers gonna have the first 10-man rotation haha
I think Clay Holmes would be a terrible idea. He has horrendously inconsistent command of his pitches and we can easily expect a 1-3MPH average fastball/sinker velocity decrease if he switches to the rotation. I can't see this one tbh Lance.
Horrendously inconsistent command is a pretty large exaggeration to me.
He’s run an ~8% walk rate for 3 years and our main proxy for “command” via FanGraphs thinks he’s average
Gotta back up the eye test with data! And vice versa
SP not RP. Even tho teams have tried and failed. 1)Try mechanical changes (they did. Saw improvements. Still not enough)
2)change grip. Did. Still not enough. And it has less movement. Soo, less difference in pitch mix. More likely to get hit if batter GUESSES wrong cause doesn't leave bat path.
3) with no logical reason. Teams should try SP to save money. With evidence why. "Here's how he ranked as reliever. Let's have him rank even WORSE as SP. I hate this guy being associated with Cubs. Analytics are f*@'ed
I didn’t understand like 75% of this comment, but thank you for commenting and helping me in the algo. 🫡
@LanceBroz I don't understand your logic... You state proof AGAINST your conclusions. Then say you should do it anyway. That clear things up?