This has been the most in depth analysis of pitching preview leading up to this WS match up. Breath of fresh air. Liked commented and subscribe for algorithm purposes, and wish you best of luck.
This is over my head. I started watching baseball this year & I like the intellectualism of the game. I don't even know all of the different pitches. I appreciate the strike zone box shown on TV; otherwise I wouldn't know what is a strike or a ball. Great game.
Don't worry, you'll start getting used to it and naturally start to see differences each pitch. It just takes time and watching a lot of baseball in that time
Hey just wanted to come back as we go into game four that this breakdown is incredible and we can see who played the analytics game better now. Yanks went in expecting to crush fastballs, they got buckled consistently on breaking balls. Game 3 they tried to play catchup on the analytics game and look breaking ball, they nearly broke records on most 4sfb taken in the zone. Now they’re in a game of catchup on a match the dodgers already won. Brilliant breakdown, incredible work.
As someone who works in a scientific research lab, the way you analyze baseball is exactly the way scientists talk about their projects. Really enjoyed this as a baseball fan
You know the Yankees & Dodgers have Watched this Video in Prep for the World Series. I’m Sure. VERY GREAT TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 👌🏽 I enjoyed this & can’t wait to see how this Chess Match plays out for Dodgers WIN 🏆
This is a great video, it really highlights a conundrum for LA. They need to chalkenge the Yankees, imo. The Yankees rely heavily on walks and working the count. The Royals and Giardians walked the Yankees eaely and often, which shortened the starters' outings and strained their bullpens. If LA drives up their starters' pitch count and have to go to their pen early, they will struggle to beat the Yankees. The Dodgers need innings to protect their pen, and they already have one guaranteed bullpen game in this series already - the Yankees also have to get innings to shield their pen, hut they have 4 starters AND Cortes and Stroman to potentially eat innings out of the pen. If LA can get length from their starters, that will give them the pitching edge. If they nibble too much and walk the Yankee hitters, they will tax their pen and lose the talent advantage from a bullpen perspective.
Just know as of the postseason and as of late, the starters haven’t had much long innings and they will probably use the bullpen a lot just like the guardians did.
@@batmanthegoat6196 I know, but that's kinda what I'm talking about here - that strategy comes with a cost. Starters throwing fewer innings may limit their exposure, but it increases the exposure of your bullpen. The Dodgers run the risk of losing the bullpen war despite having, imo, better overall personnel because they will overuse those personnel, which will give the Yankees more looks at each arm and wearing those arms down with fatigue. The Yankees, conceptually, have the advantage of having more starters/innings eaters, which could allow them to avoid over-exposure for their bullpen, shuelding some of their lower-leverage guys and reserving the higher-leverage guys.
You didn't watch the dodgers vs meta series, did you? The dodgers collected 35 walks against the Mets they lived and ate of working counts and knocking out the starter before the 5th.
im a big dodger fan but i know little about baseball, never played it and got into watching it 2012. i really enjoy in-depth videos like this that break down the match ups. im even more nervous and excited to watch this world series
That is interesting to sum up these world series off of random outcomes. You mention that the sample size gets cut to nearly 96 percent as both teams approach the world series which is what makes these outcomes so hard to measure?! That's so crazy 😭
Well, on the positive side of things, if we were accurate predicting things (right ~75% of the time), there probably wouldn’t be much reason to watch haha So I like the universe we’re in
Hey u are absolutely right man. 2 games in and Dodgers are not sending Kopech (fastball) against Soto-Judge-Stanton. They are going with Treinen wiffle ball instead against those guys
Gerrit Cole’s sinker is really good! I wish he would throw it more along with his cutter and circle change up. Having an arsenal like gerrit cole is so valuable.
Mookie Betts being awesome vs right on right sliders really helps the dodgers. They generally fare better against Sinker Slider pitchers. The generally dominant most pitching archotypes though.
Mookie covering SL away is somewhat new! He struggled all year with it (before and after the broken hand), late adjustment by him heading into the postseason. Super impressive
Great stuff, as always, Lance! Ah, yes, should I pitch to my strength or to the hitter's weakness? Should I stick to what got me here or deviate because the hitter knows my tendencies? But enough analysis, it's time to play ball!
Nice analysis and am looking forward to the series! Besides the pitch selection- control and placement are obviously critical. Hang one over the plate and all bets are off. Play ball!
With the amount of money they spend in analytics department. I’m sure they already looked at it. This video is made by one guys. A whole department probably looking at 500 times the data not counting computers doing the job.
Great video as always but I also love the book mentioned, have added it to me list of books I need to read! Any other book recommendations, baseball related or otherwise?
4S - .393 SK - .365 CH - .344 SL - .361 Should've included this in those slides, my apologies! Thought it would come across through my highlighting. Won't give full L/R splits cause then you'd have to control for pitcher, it'd be a lot of numbers, etc. They'll deviate slightly when looking at optimal matchups (lefty # will be higher vs righty pitchers; righty numbers will be higher vs lefty pitchers, etc)
This is why analytics exist in baseball. This is also why teams are so addicted to it. Going up to the player and asking how they feel doesn’t give much of an answer.
Despite that, I do think it’s important (potentially vital) to consider player perspective. Ie, “what do you see from that pitcher” “why is his slider good when our model says it isn’t” Can learn a lot from it, or even set up further research
I've played ball all my life and always knew analytics have always been involved but this video just showed me how off I am on how much analytics is actually going on. Is any part of the game about feel anymore?
Nice analyst. If you don’t have a good locating fastball… Your change up will just look like a cement mixer to Yankee batters. The Yankees sinker pitchers hit 92,93 with late breaking movement to mix in with the bugs bunny change up from righties. Dodger starting pitchers without Glasnow and Kershaw is terrible. You still need command and sequencing. Their offense will be leaned on heavily and a lot of there will will be slugfests. Rodon should have that slider ready. They are susceptible to it. Right handed battles should get that back leg thrown at them as the finisher.
Executive Summary: Statistics don't necessarily work over short periods of time. In only a 7 game series, the statistics that work over 162 games, isn't as guaranteed.
i think he’s mainly pointing out tendencies and patterns which then, it does matter over a 7 game period; the only reason statistics might have some sort of skew is bc it’s the playoffs and more so, the world series rather than a regular season game; but looking at these patterns and stats absolutely have relevance in game plan and are analyzed to implement pitch sequences that have the most chance to working
@@matthewcho37 I did not say anything about not looking at mean, median & modes. Those need to be studied. Any 7 game period in a team season can have slumps and win spurts. That's the "not guaranteed" part. Teams can have statistical peaks and valleys over short peiods, not a straight line average. You have data above and below. The White Sox did win a few games this year. That's the "not guaranteed" loss part. Random fliers in White Sox win data are real. That's the 7 game flier part.
If you AIN’T THROWING STRIKES OR HAVE LATE MOMENT. Dodgers Pitching is not on the same level as Yankees right and their bullpen is trash. Easily to look good from ahead and pitch with confidence. Dodges main thru boppers are former AL players Yankees are familiar with. It’s the back end that will do a lil damage.
I keep reading that these two lineups are neck and neck offensively but I don’t see how NY even competes with LAs bats. After NYs first 4 they have a massive drop off in talent. Also Judge isn’t even producing right now. LA has quality hitters 1-9 both from average and power. Also I would take Yamamoto and Flaherty over Schmidt and Rodon. Cole is better an Buehler. And LAs bullpen is a much better than NYs.
I only ask the umps call a solid game. Consistent, and accurate. Let the players decide, not umps flipping counts or forcing either manager to challenge a call that shouldn’t need it.
@@seen3804here’s the issue. What you said statistically up to this point is correct , but one bad decision pitch or swing wise in a particular situation (bases loaded ,0-2 outs ,late inning , early inning etc) throws all that out the window. Everything we think we know about this series will be turned on its head by the weekend most likely. That’s baseball.
@@Lovlee33161There are also some good matchups the Yankees pitchers have with dodgers batters lol, and vice versa hitters against pitchers. This guy took two examples and ran with it 😂
That's what I was thinking too. Overall with MLB high level 1-1 position analysis, I was thinking LAD in 7, but this analysis really sheds light on the minute 1-1 battles that pivot the trajectory of a game. More often than not, having to deviate further away from what you've been doing well over the whole course of a season and to do it consistently, is much harder than doing what you do well, consistently. TLDR version, Yankees in 6
the dodgers and yankees arent in the world series because manfruad wanted it. the only stats that matter is who wins the games. player stats during team losses dont matter
💯 , if Soto has 8 + pitch ABs regularly he will go yard eventually as proven against Guardians. I can see him having a multiple HR game at YANKEE STADIUM
My god, nerds and their stats...hahaha. Ver in depth. I would recommned not throwing an above average amount of 4S to Yankees lineup....they will be gone.
This has been the most in depth analysis of pitching preview leading up to this WS match up. Breath of fresh air. Liked commented and subscribe for algorithm purposes, and wish you best of luck.
Thanks!! Enjoy the WS
Lance TO THE MOOOOOON
Goated
I agree. Awesome job
I agree 🫡 sheeshhh so effortlessly!
This is over my head. I started watching baseball this year &
I like the intellectualism of the game. I don't even know all of the
different pitches. I appreciate the strike zone box shown on TV;
otherwise I wouldn't know what is a strike or a ball. Great game.
team game yet its always a 1v1. pitcher v batter.
Me too bud, ive gained a bigger appreciation for the game by watching this season. Learning a lot. Go yankees!
Don't worry, you'll start getting used to it and naturally start to see differences each pitch. It just takes time and watching a lot of baseball in that time
@@realStibic 1v9 u mean
@@rongbips420 every at bat is a 1v1
Hey just wanted to come back as we go into game four that this breakdown is incredible and we can see who played the analytics game better now. Yanks went in expecting to crush fastballs, they got buckled consistently on breaking balls. Game 3 they tried to play catchup on the analytics game and look breaking ball, they nearly broke records on most 4sfb taken in the zone. Now they’re in a game of catchup on a match the dodgers already won. Brilliant breakdown, incredible work.
Until I checked the comments I didn’t realize how few people have seen this this is such actual insightful content
This is easily one of the most informative and greatest basbeall videos I have ever seen. Great work man.
As someone who works in a scientific research lab, the way you analyze baseball is exactly the way scientists talk about their projects. Really enjoyed this as a baseball fan
Thanks, that’s a huge compliment
Wow so far the best WS preview and prediction on the internet!
Yankees needs to see this video .
They know
THIS VIDEO IS THE REAL MVP👏🏼👏🏼
You know the Yankees & Dodgers have Watched this Video in Prep for the World Series. I’m Sure. VERY GREAT TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 👌🏽 I enjoyed this & can’t wait to see how this Chess Match plays out for Dodgers WIN 🏆
This is a great video, it really highlights a conundrum for LA. They need to chalkenge the Yankees, imo. The Yankees rely heavily on walks and working the count. The Royals and Giardians walked the Yankees eaely and often, which shortened the starters' outings and strained their bullpens. If LA drives up their starters' pitch count and have to go to their pen early, they will struggle to beat the Yankees. The Dodgers need innings to protect their pen, and they already have one guaranteed bullpen game in this series already - the Yankees also have to get innings to shield their pen, hut they have 4 starters AND Cortes and Stroman to potentially eat innings out of the pen. If LA can get length from their starters, that will give them the pitching edge. If they nibble too much and walk the Yankee hitters, they will tax their pen and lose the talent advantage from a bullpen perspective.
Just know as of the postseason and as of late, the starters haven’t had much long innings and they will probably use the bullpen a lot just like the guardians did.
@@batmanthegoat6196 I know, but that's kinda what I'm talking about here - that strategy comes with a cost. Starters throwing fewer innings may limit their exposure, but it increases the exposure of your bullpen. The Dodgers run the risk of losing the bullpen war despite having, imo, better overall personnel because they will overuse those personnel, which will give the Yankees more looks at each arm and wearing those arms down with fatigue. The Yankees, conceptually, have the advantage of having more starters/innings eaters, which could allow them to avoid over-exposure for their bullpen, shuelding some of their lower-leverage guys and reserving the higher-leverage guys.
@@jcjvcjc98 and we got Nestor Cortes coming back in the bullpen who is another lefty Yankees have in that bullpen that will be really good.
You didn't watch the dodgers vs meta series, did you? The dodgers collected 35 walks against the Mets they lived and ate of working counts and knocking out the starter before the 5th.
@@Anthony-dy5cq but we aren’t the Mets. We actually got pitching unlike the Mets. Mets always known for a having a laughing stock of pitching
Yankees pitching coach Blake is the difference maker for the Yankees. He is responsible for the Yankees being competitive again in pitching.
Blake is the man. Don’t undersell the rest of that department though. Desi Druschel is one of the best pitching minds in the sport.
@LanceBroz true. Yankees are getting pitchers from the garbage bin and turning them into gold.
Excellent video.Thank you for the education!
im a big dodger fan but i know little about baseball, never played it and got into watching it 2012. i really enjoy in-depth videos like this that break down the match ups. im even more nervous and excited to watch this world series
Loved the analysis. This adds another dimension to watching the game and predicting pitches. Thank you, I subscribed
Thanks! Appreciate it 🤙
absolutely Love the video. i subscribed immediately. wish i would have found the page sooner
Thanks! 🙏
That is interesting to sum up these world series off of random outcomes. You mention that the sample size gets cut to nearly 96 percent as both teams approach the world series which is what makes these outcomes so hard to measure?! That's so crazy 😭
Well, on the positive side of things, if we were accurate predicting things (right ~75% of the time), there probably wouldn’t be much reason to watch haha
So I like the universe we’re in
Hey u are absolutely right man. 2 games in and Dodgers are not sending Kopech (fastball) against Soto-Judge-Stanton. They are going with Treinen wiffle ball instead against those guys
This man knows his stuff. Someone please send this to the Dodgers front office.
First vid of yours I’ve watched (thank you algo) and certainly not the last! Well done
🫡🫡🫡
Awesome analysis
Wow. Great stuff, Lance! I love the numbers and the way you present the information. Really excited for this World Series
Wow, really nice video. Essential and interesting stats and engaging video the whole time.
this was extremely entertaining and interesting
loved this breakdown
brilliant analysis, thank you
I really enjoyed your analysis. Looking foreword to your future videos too 🎉
Thanks!
Gerrit Cole’s sinker is really good! I wish he would throw it more along with his cutter and circle change up. Having an arsenal like gerrit cole is so valuable.
You’ll have a good career man keep going
instant subscribe
Props to you bro this is some good shit. WS baby let's gooooo!!
Good work Lance
This was a super intriguing video. I wonder how they’ll adjust their strategies based off this
good shit lance
Mookie Betts being awesome vs right on right sliders really helps the dodgers. They generally fare better against Sinker Slider pitchers. The generally dominant most pitching archotypes though.
Mookie covering SL away is somewhat new! He struggled all year with it (before and after the broken hand), late adjustment by him heading into the postseason. Super impressive
This was great, I hope you come back and tear apart the results.
Awesome video that has me excited as a yankees fan!
Great video.
Interesting video 😎
Great stuff, as always, Lance! Ah, yes, should I pitch to my strength or to the hitter's weakness? Should I stick to what got me here or deviate because the hitter knows my tendencies? But enough analysis, it's time to play ball!
This is so informative. Excellent work!
Thanks!
Wow, this was an awesome video!!! Subscribing… now!!
Nice analysis and am looking forward to the series! Besides the pitch selection- control and placement are obviously critical. Hang one over the plate and all bets are off. Play ball!
great video
This is exactly what the Dodger pitching staff needs to watch
With the amount of money they spend in analytics department. I’m sure they already looked at it. This video is made by one guys. A whole department probably looking at 500 times the data not counting computers doing the job.
The Dodgers are FKD
Yeah, their internal analysis is 5000x better than mine
They have skin in the game, I don’t! Big difference
What an amazing video! Love the explainations and the passion🔥
Great video as always but I also love the book mentioned, have added it to me list of books I need to read! Any other book recommendations, baseball related or otherwise?
Awesome video
Hopefully there will be an update after the WS where you go over what their approach ended up being
What are the averages for xWOBAcon for pitch type + handedness?
4S - .393
SK - .365
CH - .344
SL - .361
Should've included this in those slides, my apologies! Thought it would come across through my highlighting. Won't give full L/R splits cause then you'd have to control for pitcher, it'd be a lot of numbers, etc. They'll deviate slightly when looking at optimal matchups (lefty # will be higher vs righty pitchers; righty numbers will be higher vs lefty pitchers, etc)
@8:00 it's pronounced with a kay
Oh, it’s “CANE-lee” not “KAHN-lee”?
Totally my bad, thanks for the note
Was looking for this comment😂😂😂
Appreciate your content..it gold...🎉🎉
Now the WS is over. Really want to hear your review with this vids and compared with what strat did teams really use. Appreciate the videos.
Valuable data analysis. Thank you.
Beautiful data analysis as always, Lance.
“Tommy Conley” threw me off so much every time lol
The Treinen sweeper is way too nasty
Where can I get/download the data on which this analysis relies?
Please tell me that you will make a follow up video going over the stats once the series is over!
This is why analytics exist in baseball. This is also why teams are so addicted to it. Going up to the player and asking how they feel doesn’t give much of an answer.
Despite that, I do think it’s important (potentially vital) to consider player perspective. Ie, “what do you see from that pitcher” “why is his slider good when our model says it isn’t”
Can learn a lot from it, or even set up further research
Love your content brother!!!
🫡🫡🫡
Throw what you want to Verdugo and Chisolm, don't worry, they'll miss or ground it straight to the 2nd baseman.
Fr 😂
Well if you mix that sinker with that slider and change up Yankees will be great! What I worry about is we are terrible against sliders and change up
When I become owner of a team, you are my first hire
I’m flattered 🫡🫡
I've played ball all my life and always knew analytics have always been involved but this video just showed me how off I am on how much analytics is actually going on. Is any part of the game about feel anymore?
Great analysis man!!!
Great vid. I think Kahnle is pronounced “Kane-Lee” though
It’s actually more “can-Lee”
But you didn’t answer the most important question, who do you think it’s gonna win?
Nice analyst.
If you don’t have a good locating fastball… Your change up will just look like a cement mixer to Yankee batters. The Yankees sinker pitchers hit 92,93 with late breaking movement to mix in with the bugs bunny change up from righties. Dodger starting pitchers without Glasnow and Kershaw is terrible. You still need command and sequencing. Their offense will be leaned on heavily and a lot of there will will be slugfests. Rodon should have that slider ready. They are susceptible to it. Right handed battles should get that back leg thrown at them as the finisher.
In other words, there’s going to be a lot of hitting in this series.
Executive Summary: Statistics don't necessarily work over short periods of time. In only a 7 game series, the statistics that work over 162 games, isn't as guaranteed.
i think he’s mainly pointing out tendencies and patterns which then, it does matter over a 7 game period; the only reason statistics might have some sort of skew is bc it’s the playoffs and more so, the world series rather than a regular season game; but looking at these patterns and stats absolutely have relevance in game plan and are analyzed to implement pitch sequences that have the most chance to working
@@matthewcho37 I did not say anything about not looking at mean, median & modes. Those need to be studied. Any 7 game period in a team season can have slumps and win spurts. That's the "not guaranteed" part. Teams can have statistical peaks and valleys over short peiods, not a straight line average. You have data above and below. The White Sox did win a few games this year. That's the "not guaranteed" loss part. Random fliers in White Sox win data are real. That's the 7 game flier part.
Dodgers in 5
Dodgers hitters are patient
So are the Yankees hitters, thats the reason the Yankees lead the league (both AL, and NL) in walks.
They remind me of the late 90’s Yankees
Both teams. This has the chance to be highest scoring ws ever with the fire power on both sides. ESP if both are hitting and grinding.
@@k29king1the difference is less than a walk per game (Yankees 4.22/Dodgers 3.80) so they are basically the same. Both teams walk a lot.
If you AIN’T THROWING STRIKES OR HAVE LATE MOMENT. Dodgers Pitching is not on the same level as Yankees right and their bullpen is trash. Easily to look good from ahead and pitch with confidence. Dodges main thru boppers are former AL players Yankees are familiar with. It’s the back end that will do a lil damage.
Best way to beat Yankees is to pitch around Soto. Pitch sweepers and low fast balls to judge and Stanton that’s it
So who's ur pick and in how many games?
When you have no direct rooting interest, always root for 7 games
LAD in 7
I keep reading that these two lineups are neck and neck offensively but I don’t see how NY even competes with LAs bats. After NYs first 4 they have a massive drop off in talent. Also Judge isn’t even producing right now. LA has quality hitters 1-9 both from average and power. Also I would take Yamamoto and Flaherty over Schmidt and Rodon. Cole is better an Buehler. And LAs bullpen is a much better than NYs.
All this info is great and all but Lance just tell us who will win the World Series, okay? 😂
Always root for 7 games if you have no direct rooting interest haha
LAD in 7
We have to pitch less fastballs against the Yankees. Without a doubt.
Bro how are not making 300k working for the astros or something
A) nobody working in baseball makes $300k lol (GM level maybe)
B) I wouldn't be able to make content for the people
C) Thank you (haha)
Astros are cheaters. @LanceBroz should make $300k working for a real org like the Yankees.
Bros not a cheater
The asstros? 😂🤣. They don't need an analyst just a marching bands bass drum player.
LETS GO DODGERS 🔵
this maybe the only series that wont be rigged who knows
I only ask the umps call a solid game. Consistent, and accurate. Let the players decide, not umps flipping counts or forcing either manager to challenge a call that shouldn’t need it.
Yes for them to get rocked by the Yankees (SfFan)
33 consecutive scoreless innings I’ll think they’ll figure it out. And if they don’t they scored 46 runs in the nlcs alone 😂
Hernandez owns Cole and Rodon.
Kopech owns Stanton Judge Soto
games over, series over.
Dodgers win
theeeee Dodgers win!
Lol your logic is beyond Flawed. Yankees win.
@@k29king1 what's wrong with it?
@@seen3804here’s the issue. What you said statistically up to this point is correct , but one bad decision pitch or swing wise in a particular situation (bases loaded ,0-2 outs ,late inning , early inning etc) throws all that out the window.
Everything we think we know about this series will be turned on its head by the weekend most likely. That’s baseball.
@@Lovlee33161There are also some good matchups the Yankees pitchers have with dodgers batters lol, and vice versa hitters against pitchers. This guy took two examples and ran with it 😂
Four seamers with a pitching staff full of righties, yea Yankees in 6
This is one of the reasons i think the Yankees will win
That's what I was thinking too. Overall with MLB high level 1-1 position analysis, I was thinking LAD in 7, but this analysis really sheds light on the minute 1-1 battles that pivot the trajectory of a game. More often than not, having to deviate further away from what you've been doing well over the whole course of a season and to do it consistently, is much harder than doing what you do well, consistently. TLDR version, Yankees in 6
Yankees are gonna have a field day if they only throw fastballs lol
the dodgers and yankees arent in the world series because manfruad wanted it. the only stats that matter is who wins the games. player stats during team losses dont matter
You should do more breakdowns after every World Series game.
This series won’t be won by way of data. It’s gonna come down to old school baseball and heart and clutch moments
💯 , if Soto has 8 + pitch ABs regularly he will go yard eventually as proven against Guardians. I can see him having a multiple HR game at YANKEE STADIUM
So who’s going to win ? lol all these stats are important but anything can happen in the World Series ?!?
Yankees eat fastballs!
@dodgers
What rob manfred wanted? Most wanted.
wOBA wOBA wOBA
Basically what he saying is if the Dodgers come in pitching the same system it’s going to be a home run derby for the Yankees!!
Hmmm
Yankees in 6
My god, nerds and their stats...hahaha. Ver in depth.
I would recommned not throwing an above average amount of 4S to Yankees lineup....they will be gone.
Forawarded this to Aaron Boone. Jk