Would be awesome to see you, pitching ninja and foolish baseball go from RUclips to MLB Network and have segments together discussing pitching. That would be absolutely sick
Great video, and great concept. I think varying locations is a huge part of taming the decay, as well as introducing variation within a pitch's specs from PA to PA or pitch to pitch. I think because MLB teams build arsenals effectively thinking about reaching thresholds on a Stuff model and everyone's throwing as hard as they can on every pitch, guys have a distinct shape and velo for every offering they get to, and there is no variation. This is in contrast to, say, Japan, where starters tinker with their shapes far more than the average US pitcher. So tinkering with shapes, taking something off or adding something based on swing tells and more, can be a part of this. If everything about a pitcher is designed to overwhelm batters and maximize results in a vacuum, those pitchers are linear and vulnerable when faced multiple times. Then there's the peak Verlander solution of improving your stuff as the game goes along, never showing a batter your best shot right away. Skenes threw Ohtani nothing but 101 the first time, mainly 100 the second, then was down to 98 on that last fastball. That kind of loss of pitch quality only intensifies the decay. But Im not sure how viable the Verlander strategy is in today's environment of large pitching staffs. This league needs expansion in the worst way, but that's another topic lol.
Yeah, I struggle a bit generally with the idea that taking ~2mph off a pitch or something and using it that way before ramping it up would actually be effective for the vast majority of arms because a) I’m not sure how much command would actually improve and b) the team would probably much rather prefer you not doing that and being better for shorter spurts Which gets back to the point that the league needs to do something relative drastic, I say double hook unless the SP records 18 outs rather than 15
@@LanceBrozI tend to agree. For one thing, altering the velocity of a pitch often changes its shape, such that reducing velocity doesn’t always result in better command-in fact, sometimes it gets worse. As for Verlander, we don’t have as much granular pitch data pre-2015, and none pre-2008, but we do know that he’s had an outlier four-seamer for most of his career, both in terms of velocity and especially IVB. His fastball had elite ride whether he was throwing 94, 98, or 102, he’s always had plus command, and he was at his peak in an era when hitters didn’t see nearly as many high-velo, high-ride fastballs at the top of the zone as they do now. He can’t really do it anymore because his max velo has dropped from ~102mph at his peak to ~97mph, and he now has to sit closer to his max to remain effective (hence his average velo has only dropped about 1-2mph; it’s a similar story for Scherzer, not for nothing).
I’m a big Phillies fan so there’s going to be bias but I think they’re gonna be a fun team to look into. Their top 3 all have maximized arsenals (it’s a massive organizational belief) but carry a high FB usage unlike some other modern pitching teams. Caleb Cotham has also done an interview with quotes about attacking hitters the first, second, and third times. The first time is about establishing strengths, second is asking what potential adjustments may need to be made, and the third is about being a “magician” which I think is more about carrying a full arsenal. Their starters pitch as deep as anyone and their third time through results are ridiculous. Again, I’m biased but i think they’re a team that’s getting ahead of the curve with potential SP rule changes that could happen in a few years like you mentioned in your conclusion. Also, I love your content and hope you have a wonderful day.
@@jnicb1477 5 of the 6 starters they used carry both a 4S and sinker. Their T3 all carry a bunch of secondaries. Wheeler throws both FB, a sweeper, curve, split, and cutter. Nola throws both FB, a curve, change, and cutter. Ranger throws both FB, a curve, change, cutter, and even some sliders to lefties.
Appreciate your insight here! Cotham is the man, I’ve had a few conversations with him in passing. Sharp guy. I think he’s the best pitching coach in baseball. I have noticed a lot more interest league wide in diversifying fastball usage. Phillies at the forefront of that for sure. Saw an article on FanGraphs about this. Believe Eno Sarris has something coming out too. It makes a lot of sense. I think I’m team “throw a bunch of pitches” more than I am “throw your best pitch most often” (when talking about starters specifically) Unsure if that’s a hot take
Awesome analysis. That was an amazing match up, prob my favorite since Ohtani vs Trout. Skene's is the real McCoy and I hope he stays healthy. What is the timeframe for that Ohtani Scouting report? This season, his whole career, etc? It's hard for me to imagine Ohtani being much better up and way inside than up and slightly inside, maybe it's just a small sample size?
Looking at 2024 there, somewhat consistent when looking back to 2023. So few hitters cover up-in well. It’s just not a viable strategy for a lot of RHPs to throw there vs a lefty too. So that’s why nobody ever throws Ohtani FBs … unless you’re Skenes, in which case, yeah, makes some sense to go up-in relentlessly know that if you miss by like 6” to your arm side, which is super common, it’s a tank
This is super interesting. Curious… guys who throw just 2 pitches (Justin Steele for example), how do you think they are able to avoid decay when there aren’t enough “buyback” pitches in the arsenal?
Yeah, that’s a great question. I think, for one, he’s a lefty. And I wonder whether lefties are just a bit more complex from a “getting familiar with a pitch” standpoint. Such that you can go a season or two with just 2 pitches before needing to adapt. Kind of the “uniqueness” point I mention in my questions section Weird and elite shapes are just going to decay differently I think. Which gets back to how important stuff is overall. Steele also throwing more sinkers to lefties and changeups to righties this year too. So maybe he/cubs think his ability to counter the league is because he’s unique is subsiding.
6:55 I would also ask as question #5, what does the decay function actually look like? Some pitchers have a rather high floor where even if they throw a pitch 40 or 50% of the time as a starter, they are still able to get consistent outs to the same hitters.
Yeah, that’s a good question as well. I’d be really curious to see what factors influence the shape of that decay. My theory is that command has a lot to do with it
Spin mirroring seemed to be a big topic ~4 years ago or so? and it’s kind of faded since. I’m unsure where the industry stands on it. My guess it that it doesn’t really play a role in this. Or if it plays a role, it’s not as big as command, arsenal effects, and other more important things
At this elite level of hitting and pitching you have to think that pitches with more movement decay less. I’d be interested in how depending and tunneling affect it. At what point does a “weaker” pitch become more valuable? Edit I meant how Sequencing and tunneling. The word depending was a mistake from autocorrect.
Hmm, that’s interesting, I’ve never thought about raw movement having an effect. I guess there could be one? That might just relate to “stuff” being a factor, which it likely is.
@@LanceBroz I mean I could be wrong but I would think the more movement a pitch generally has, the more room for variance. Like a slider that really moves might move less or more, a curve might drop more or less. It’s just adding a variation to the same pitch. I would think they hold value more. How much more? I wouldn’t think a lot. But some. I’m no expert, I just love the game and really enjoy the thinking about and the discussion of it. Great video btw.my original comment had a mistake. I edited it.
It can throw a hitter off when u repeatedly do it instead of changing it an doin a breaking ball which is what most hitter are expecting, that's the beat reason I can think of plus less chance of u hanging something to get crushed
I don't see why you throw a strike at a full count to Ohtani, and especially a fast ball that he is not that far behind, has seen enough of them to get the pace, you dirt a curveball, or splinker outside corner, take the walk, rather than do the 'oh I hope this doesn't come back over the plat...oh...there it goes.' Seemed like a rookie mistake for Skenes, but hindsight is 20/20.
I think it’s really hard to be passive on the mound as a pitcher. So while I totally understand your point, I can’t imagine many guys are that risk averse. You advance scouting to get a guy out, not to walk him. 3-2 count against Ohtani is better than throwing like 2-1 or 2-0 fastballs trying to get back into the count. I’d say Snell is one of the most risk averse guys in baseball - always in the shadows, no early count fastballs,
Fast bat allows, in theory, a longer time to decide whether to swing, holding swing length and contact point constant. I struggle to see the mental slow down connection you’re making there. Lot of big bat speed hitters who struggle with Ks, implying they’re likely not blessed with some ability to slow down pitches.
@@LanceBrozBat speed does not equal bat acceleration. Arraez, Betts, Altuve, Trout, Judge, Freeman, and pretty much every other great hitter is great because they can _accelerate_ their barrels quickly, which is what actually lets them _react_ with a greater window to recognize the pitch. The technique that creates a fast swing is also one that creates a barrel path which is deep and durable in the zone (enters at a nominal launch position very early while staying that way throughout). This technique has already been discovered and will dominate MLB within 5 years. The “ability” you’re talking about is inborn, yes. It has to do with eyesight and the efficiency of the occipital lobe (visual processing, i.e, how effective the brain is at actually using the data from the eyes) along with athleticism (what separates the nerdy, uncoordinated wimp from the guy who is a natural at seemingly everything). Hitters that get their barrel up to speed quickly, entering the zone early and with a deep path that greatly increases the chances up keeping the ball off the ground and in the 15-30 degree launch angle) are always the top performers, and always do it more consistently.
Lance I have no idea how you only have 5k subs all your videos are so great and informative
Appreciate that! Trying my best to grow 👍
Would be awesome to see you, pitching ninja and foolish baseball go from RUclips to MLB Network and have segments together discussing pitching. That would be absolutely sick
Maybe some day! Both those guys are great creators and people
True, tunneling your pitches might be the best way to buyback. Maybe if he threw a slider inside or a low changeup in the zone.
I’ve said it before, but tunneling to me is just command/location.
So in a way, I guess we agree. 😂 Because I think command plays a big part in this
Great content, as always. So glad I found your channel.
Thanks for hanging around 🫡
Great video, and great concept. I think varying locations is a huge part of taming the decay, as well as introducing variation within a pitch's specs from PA to PA or pitch to pitch.
I think because MLB teams build arsenals effectively thinking about reaching thresholds on a Stuff model and everyone's throwing as hard as they can on every pitch, guys have a distinct shape and velo for every offering they get to, and there is no variation. This is in contrast to, say, Japan, where starters tinker with their shapes far more than the average US pitcher. So tinkering with shapes, taking something off or adding something based on swing tells and more, can be a part of this. If everything about a pitcher is designed to overwhelm batters and maximize results in a vacuum, those pitchers are linear and vulnerable when faced multiple times.
Then there's the peak Verlander solution of improving your stuff as the game goes along, never showing a batter your best shot right away. Skenes threw Ohtani nothing but 101 the first time, mainly 100 the second, then was down to 98 on that last fastball. That kind of loss of pitch quality only intensifies the decay. But Im not sure how viable the Verlander strategy is in today's environment of large pitching staffs. This league needs expansion in the worst way, but that's another topic lol.
Yeah, I struggle a bit generally with the idea that taking ~2mph off a pitch or something and using it that way before ramping it up would actually be effective for the vast majority of arms because a) I’m not sure how much command would actually improve and b) the team would probably much rather prefer you not doing that and being better for shorter spurts
Which gets back to the point that the league needs to do something relative drastic, I say double hook unless the SP records 18 outs rather than 15
@@LanceBrozI tend to agree. For one thing, altering the velocity of a pitch often changes its shape, such that reducing velocity doesn’t always result in better command-in fact, sometimes it gets worse. As for Verlander, we don’t have as much granular pitch data pre-2015, and none pre-2008, but we do know that he’s had an outlier four-seamer for most of his career, both in terms of velocity and especially IVB. His fastball had elite ride whether he was throwing 94, 98, or 102, he’s always had plus command, and he was at his peak in an era when hitters didn’t see nearly as many high-velo, high-ride fastballs at the top of the zone as they do now. He can’t really do it anymore because his max velo has dropped from ~102mph at his peak to ~97mph, and he now has to sit closer to his max to remain effective (hence his average velo has only dropped about 1-2mph; it’s a similar story for Scherzer, not for nothing).
I’m a big Phillies fan so there’s going to be bias but I think they’re gonna be a fun team to look into. Their top 3 all have maximized arsenals (it’s a massive organizational belief) but carry a high FB usage unlike some other modern pitching teams. Caleb Cotham has also done an interview with quotes about attacking hitters the first, second, and third times. The first time is about establishing strengths, second is asking what potential adjustments may need to be made, and the third is about being a “magician” which I think is more about carrying a full arsenal. Their starters pitch as deep as anyone and their third time through results are ridiculous. Again, I’m biased but i think they’re a team that’s getting ahead of the curve with potential SP rule changes that could happen in a few years like you mentioned in your conclusion. Also, I love your content and hope you have a wonderful day.
Wow this is so cool I didn’t know this is how the Phillies approached their SP
@@jnicb1477 5 of the 6 starters they used carry both a 4S and sinker. Their T3 all carry a bunch of secondaries. Wheeler throws both FB, a sweeper, curve, split, and cutter. Nola throws both FB, a curve, change, and cutter. Ranger throws both FB, a curve, change, cutter, and even some sliders to lefties.
Appreciate your insight here! Cotham is the man, I’ve had a few conversations with him in passing. Sharp guy. I think he’s the best pitching coach in baseball.
I have noticed a lot more interest league wide in diversifying fastball usage. Phillies at the forefront of that for sure. Saw an article on FanGraphs about this. Believe Eno Sarris has something coming out too.
It makes a lot of sense. I think I’m team “throw a bunch of pitches” more than I am “throw your best pitch most often” (when talking about starters specifically)
Unsure if that’s a hot take
Awesome analysis. That was an amazing match up, prob my favorite since Ohtani vs Trout. Skene's is the real McCoy and I hope he stays healthy.
What is the timeframe for that Ohtani Scouting report? This season, his whole career, etc? It's hard for me to imagine Ohtani being much better up and way inside than up and slightly inside, maybe it's just a small sample size?
Looking at 2024 there, somewhat consistent when looking back to 2023.
So few hitters cover up-in well. It’s just not a viable strategy for a lot of RHPs to throw there vs a lefty too.
So that’s why nobody ever throws Ohtani FBs
… unless you’re Skenes, in which case, yeah, makes some sense to go up-in relentlessly know that if you miss by like 6” to your arm side, which is super common, it’s a tank
This is super interesting.
Curious… guys who throw just 2 pitches (Justin Steele for example), how do you think they are able to avoid decay when there aren’t enough “buyback” pitches in the arsenal?
Yeah, that’s a great question.
I think, for one, he’s a lefty. And I wonder whether lefties are just a bit more complex from a “getting familiar with a pitch” standpoint. Such that you can go a season or two with just 2 pitches before needing to adapt. Kind of the “uniqueness” point I mention in my questions section
Weird and elite shapes are just going to decay differently I think. Which gets back to how important stuff is overall.
Steele also throwing more sinkers to lefties and changeups to righties this year too. So maybe he/cubs think his ability to counter the league is because he’s unique is subsiding.
6:55 I would also ask as question #5, what does the decay function actually look like? Some pitchers have a rather high floor where even if they throw a pitch 40 or 50% of the time as a starter, they are still able to get consistent outs to the same hitters.
Yeah, that’s a good question as well. I’d be really curious to see what factors influence the shape of that decay.
My theory is that command has a lot to do with it
I think spin mirroring plays big into this
Spin mirroring seemed to be a big topic ~4 years ago or so? and it’s kind of faded since. I’m unsure where the industry stands on it. My guess it that it doesn’t really play a role in this. Or if it plays a role, it’s not as big as command, arsenal effects, and other more important things
At this elite level of hitting and pitching you have to think that pitches with more movement decay less. I’d be interested in how depending and tunneling affect it. At what point does a “weaker” pitch become more valuable?
Edit I meant how Sequencing and tunneling. The word depending was a mistake from autocorrect.
Hmm, that’s interesting, I’ve never thought about raw movement having an effect. I guess there could be one? That might just relate to “stuff” being a factor, which it likely is.
@@LanceBroz I mean I could be wrong but I would think the more movement a pitch generally has, the more room for variance. Like a slider that really moves might move less or more, a curve might drop more or less. It’s just adding a variation to the same pitch. I would think they hold value more. How much more? I wouldn’t think a lot. But some. I’m no expert, I just love the game and really enjoy the thinking about and the discussion of it. Great video btw.my original comment had a mistake. I edited it.
👍
👍
I cannot wait to see Garrett Crochet vs Ohtani
Question why is skeens tempting the best hitter in baseball with so many fastballs
I wondered the same, but I think he was trying to get them all up-in, basically the only spot to beat Ohtani
👍
It can throw a hitter off when u repeatedly do it instead of changing it an doin a breaking ball which is what most hitter are expecting, that's the beat reason I can think of plus less chance of u hanging something to get crushed
I don't see why you throw a strike at a full count to Ohtani, and especially a fast ball that he is not that far behind, has seen enough of them to get the pace, you dirt a curveball, or splinker outside corner, take the walk, rather than do the 'oh I hope this doesn't come back over the plat...oh...there it goes.' Seemed like a rookie mistake for Skenes, but hindsight is 20/20.
I think it’s really hard to be passive on the mound as a pitcher. So while I totally understand your point, I can’t imagine many guys are that risk averse. You advance scouting to get a guy out, not to walk him. 3-2 count against Ohtani is better than throwing like 2-1 or 2-0 fastballs trying to get back into the count.
I’d say Snell is one of the most risk averse guys in baseball - always in the shadows, no early count fastballs,
But if batters have a tremendously fast bat swing, they can mentally slow down a pitcher's pitch
Fast bat allows, in theory, a longer time to decide whether to swing, holding swing length and contact point constant.
I struggle to see the mental slow down connection you’re making there.
Lot of big bat speed hitters who struggle with Ks, implying they’re likely not blessed with some ability to slow down pitches.
@@LanceBrozBat speed does not equal bat acceleration. Arraez, Betts, Altuve, Trout, Judge, Freeman, and pretty much every other great hitter is great because they can _accelerate_ their barrels quickly, which is what actually lets them _react_ with a greater window to recognize the pitch. The technique that creates a fast swing is also one that creates a barrel path which is deep and durable in the zone (enters at a nominal launch position very early while staying that way throughout). This technique has already been discovered and will dominate MLB within 5 years.
The “ability” you’re talking about is inborn, yes. It has to do with eyesight and the efficiency of the occipital lobe (visual processing, i.e, how effective the brain is at actually using the data from the eyes) along with athleticism (what separates the nerdy, uncoordinated wimp from the guy who is a natural at seemingly everything).
Hitters that get their barrel up to speed quickly, entering the zone early and with a deep path that greatly increases the chances up keeping the ball off the ground and in the 15-30 degree launch angle) are always the top performers, and always do it more consistently.
shohei just face himself 102 he throws himself