Will Self-Driving Trucks Take Your Job? (Current Developments, Timeline, Future Projections)
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- Опубликовано: 21 апр 2021
- Autonomous self-driving trucks seem to be just on the horizon. One of the most popular questions that we get asked at this channel is whether if it's worth joining the trucking industry today with self-driving trucks on the horizon. So today, Ronen will settle this question once and for all: Will self-driving trucks take your job? Watch this video to find out.
He will discuss the current state of research and development on self-driving trucks, what the future holds, and when self-driving trucks will finally take over.
We will also talk about the different levels of vehicle automation and what they all mean.
Is it worth joining the trucking industry today, watch the full video to find out.
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Soundtrack:
Pop Filter - Alternate Endings
Ian Kelosky - Old Records
Don't trust self driving anything I'd rather do the driving
Amen
Unfortunately in the next 10 15 years those cars won’t exist even if they don’t most care will be self driving just like most jobs the world will have more automation
Especially the self drive semi truck is very devastation if caught accident
You may chose to drive but the issue is who will hire you? And if you are owner-operator then your cost will be much higher than other companies that offer driverless trucks.
Tesla (self driving cars) has killed plenty of people what makes this smart? Kill a larger number of people with larger accidents? Money hungry bastards will sell us anything we’ll buy into 😂😭😭😭😭
I want to be a truck driver and I’m happy it won’t be gone as fast as I thought
Personally, I think your assessment was spot on. The one point you didn't cover however, is the impact this transition is going to have on driver pay. Once the long haul drivers, are replaced and move into the cities, this means a decreased demand for total number of drivers. I expect driver pay to fall significantly as this transition begins.
I would think self driving autonomous trucks would be plagued with an over abundance of flat tires!
And lawsuits. Let's say if these trucks malfunction and injure people. Who's gonna be at fault ? These companies who want to replace people for robots. If they are going to make self driving trucks they have to be perfect and that will take a long time.
@Alex Coop man, if these trucks start raping people we are going to be in serious trouble
@@wherezmemallet4879 trucks alredy malfunction and hurt people now. With drivers in them. Same story different shit.
@@inohaveshirt difference is that person is held accountable. Who is held accountable when a self driving truck injured people? The company
@@wherezmemallet4879 There are radar sensers to detect objects. Its more safe than people driving it
Imagine being a driver in an automated truck going cross country just sitting there for hours doing nothing in the seat. I’d get so bored lol
Not me I'd just watch a movie and make easy money
Not me, I’d never do it. If I die I want it to be my fault. I’ll drive my own truck thank you
@@candoallthings6748 Its not geared to people like you. It's for big companies to replace the need for human drivers and reduce cost.
@@navi7919 nobody's that stupid, and if they were they would be incapable
@@kingjudah38 Cause that would never get boring?
Driverless trucks will happen at some time in the future but it will be driven by the fact that young people don't want to be truck drivers and who can blame them.I've been a trucker for 15 years and when people ask me if its a good job to have I tell them no and when they ask why I reply "because the pay is terrible and the respect is even worse".
Being a trucker is not about money , its about being a hero and doing good things .
And people don't respect you becouse they don't have a life ... diesel trucks for life ⚔🛠⚒⛏🔨🔩⚙🗜🧰🍻🌻🍀🔧🚜🌳🌲🌷☘🍻🤝 truckers are the back bone of the world . Amen
I'm not a trucker, but I have several friends who are and I have shared the view that fully self driving trucks are easily 3 decades away.
No chance those self driving trucks would never be able to get into the same places humans could
@@livinglife4250 what you have is called denial you work in inches while they work in nano meters
I am so impressed with most truck drivers. Seeing where they can safely put a truck is amazing. I drive a school bus and enjoy the heck out of it.
Modern airplanes have sophisticated auto pilot that can take off, fly and land by itself (one can say that about trains and ships too) . Yet in the cockpit there are always two pilots. Full automation in trucking will be years away, and then there'll always be a driver behind the wheel to anticipate unknown hazzards on the road and assured public safety. If you wants to know if automation will eliminate professional drivers, you might ask yourself why are there still pilots in the air?
Agreed. Also why haven’t we automated a freaking train? Lol
I've talked to commercial pilots who say that once you have taken off you can put on the automatic pilot and the plane can land at airports with the right equipment in thick fog and total darkness.
But this depends on the wind not being too strong.
The pilots are still needed when the weather is bad as Auto pilot doesn't react quickly enough when trying to land
Yeah but drivers would be more likely be a sleep on the wheel it won’t really work plus you have to consider the weather if it’s extremely cold or hot the sensors never work right
There are not enough pilots in the world to make investments in self-driving planes worthwhile. Same goes for train drivers. But to not have to pay 1.5 million truck drivers, THAT is a big motivation for self driving trucks.
@Jimmy Delvecchio flight navigators always thought that their job is too complex to be automated. Now that profession is dead due to computers.
I think you hit it spot on - there are so many rules and regulations that still need to be agreed upon before full autonomy becomes a standard, there will still be a huge need for drivers for a very long time to come. Navistar will begin production of autonomous vehicles (level 4) in 2024 with a partnership with TuSimple. I read an article that said they have 7k reservations for truck builds already. I do not see the large radius household goods logistical support technicians going away anytime soon! Stay safe out there.
The fact that you are asking the question shows that you know the answer.
!
Thnx for solving 1 of my query regarding autonomous trucks👍 this channel answers genuine queries of truck industry.
I believe autonomous vehicles on the road should be voted on. From most everyone I talk to people don't feel safe with them on the road.
me too.
Voted on? Wake up...Did they vote for horse & buggy back in the day when cars came into the picture? The technology already shows at least on level 4, hub to hub, its safer than humans.
For real, they can be hacked to. I don’t want it. I’ll drive my own vehicle.
Nope i like driving my own vehicle
I’m not a driver, but know a few people who do drive trucks. Personally I think it will take about 4 to 5 decades for this to actually happen. Plus, I don’t think they’ll be completely self drive trucks, so don’t think many people will lose their job because of this. Also, this may be very expensive to achieve and to even possibly buy. But this could actually become an issue for some drivers, because I think this could lower their wages.
I drive a Freightliner equipped with Detroit assurance driver assistance. My daily route takes me across I90 east in New York everyday. Right there at silver Creek exit 58 it always flashes a collision warning thinking it's Gona hit there overpass, sometimes even brakes violently. My opinion, they have a loooooong way to go for complete self driving.
I have spoken to some of the leaders at Tusimple and Professor at the University of Pennsylvania about this. You pretty much nailed it. Professor Steve Viscelli told me that city driving will take decades. Tusimple wanted to hire me as a test driver. Definitely interesting times that we are living in.
Would you advise anyone looking to get in to go on in?
@@leagueofotters2774 Yes its definitely worth getting into. I'm only 35 and after researching this as much I possibly could. I would say that I'll be able to retire, but the job will definitely change later on.
@@leagueofotters2774 Aim for going to an LTL company like FedEx, UPS, Old Dominion. Dayton Freight. It's a 100k job once you have the experience. Home everyday or hotels four days a week and then home.
@@dfldriver I appreciate your replies and insight.
@@leagueofotters2774 My pleasure. Feel free to message me if you have questions. Very easy to be home daily right of the bat and make 100k when you get some experience.
I want to see it put chains in the snow
😂
Auto chains are on a lot of trucks already
@@wesharrison6106 Auto chains are on the trucks... But most states require you to put on the chains...
Just watch and see what's going to happen when somebody hacks into the system and makes these trucks not stop.... Look what happened to the oil pipeline... And look at JBS getting hacked too....
1. Oil can run low anytime Someone has to change or top up.
2. Will these autobloopers solve the maze of flat beds.
3. Who's responsible for the load of these auto doperz will tesla and so on insure the loads .
4. Will it run on the uphill incase of brake failure and will it auto tow aswell.
Technology might embrace trucking but replacing it wont be easy folks.
I support Truck drivers and human rights, Let´s not allow the New agenda impose it´s rules over freedom, job, and other rights we have, and must never give out.
Thank you Team.. God bless.
Thank you 🙏 that’s my biggest fear. That’s what has kept me from making the jump
Make the jump before its too lates 😐 why wait & live with fear ?
Watching your channel from Ukraine while trying move to Canada. Thanks for content!
Thank you so many drivers worried bout their families if they loss their driving job
In my opinion, LCV is the clue as to what is next. A more likely prediction is a lead manned unit with a number of drones following. Totally feasible right now let alone 10-20 yr.
I personally think a lot of it depends on how battery tech evolves going forward, as it is right now; the batteries used in electric cars are massive, super heavy and relatively unstable in a collision, and use up a fair chunk of natural resources. I think all of these factors will have to be resolved before you could even think about making a practical electric semi truck. Can you imagine how insanely large and heavy the multiple batteries you would need on a rig like that to actually achieve even close to the miles that current truck can do with full fuel tanks? If we tried it with our current tech it would be ridiculous on the scales, probably even heavier than what we have now I'd imagine, or you would have to sacrifice distance for smaller batteries. Not to mention the sheer lack of electric charging stations on the highways of NA.
Great video though, very insightful. I'm actually looking at moving up in the industry myself from being a parts delivery person currently. Your videos have really helped me to crystalize a clear vision of what I need to do over the next few years to get started! Thanks so much and please keep it up!
Great insight!
But you don't need electric vehicles to have a self driving truck.....it can be done with the diesel trucks we have now.
@@leagueofotters2774 Oh yeah? Who's going to fill up the gas or DEF then? Especially since most cardlocks don't have attendants physically there, or don't have them there 24/7.
@@tsuzuku6427 Who would charge the batteries?? With electric or diesel trucks there will of course be the need for service hubs. These will of course adapt to meet the needs of autonomous trucks.
December 21 2021 Simply got a truck to drive 80 miles without a human in the cab in Arizona, from pick up in Tuscon to Phoenix
Very interesting video, watching from Jamaica 👍🏼🇯🇲
Thanks for watching
I think the question relates more to what labour unions and economists will tolerate than our technical capabilities as to how much automation we will come to adopt without curbing creative economic developmental spirit
Yeah, if construction workers unions can lobby against innovation to keep human flagmen jobs, instead of using portable traffic lights like they use in Europe, then truck driver's unions should be able to lobby to always require a human attendant to the truck in some form or another. And a truck driver has a much more vital role to road safety than a flagman.
Here in Massachusetts, they even require police detailers instead of flagmen.
Well I hope to drive a real truck in 3 or 4 years when I get my cdl
Hahaha nope ai electric fueling next 10yrs
We already have ai cars in Florida Miami yep u heard that right bumfuck fl has ai cars
Adam, go into the self driving industry, its technology, thats where the future is.
automated trucks will not eliminate trucking jobs, but it will probably cut the available trucking jobs by 50% or 75%. and it will also reduce the salary
In Prince Rupert the Port is building a private road to transport containers. Would this be a case where it would be worthwhile introducing self-driving trucks?
Long way out....maybe but I would definitely if I were considering a career in trucking prepare for the system to change very rapidly.
For the most part I agree with what has been said. My opinion for a level 5 automation to be effective is hubs themselves needs to be fully automated too. Sensors all over the lot and loading docks. And sensors throughout the whole infrastructure of even the major highways.
There will be truck operators, not truck drivers. Operators will have to back in trailer(s) at particular warehouse(s), truck operators might have to take over control on the straight away highway if something goes wrong. Many companies will be required (due to insurance) to have truck operators to sit in the driver seat to monitor weather/road/traffic and autonomous system itself, to make sure that there won't be any catastrophic events happening on the road. It will be possible to have complete autonomy for trucks only if there won't be any people driving on the roads.
Komatsu already has level 5 heavy haul trucks working in Alberta oil sands
Waiting for the self driving trucks.
The self driving truck on a road with no break down lane. How is it going to pulled over. Test these trucks on 14% grade in the winter time in the montains full loaded
I want to see what it would do when the dock or hub is full
Bruh...people fail to realize that stuff like this happens all the time. Also when the dock is higher than the container and needs to be opened first before backing in.
Will the police ticket the truck if there is a collision in self driving mode? You are correct. Take over the easy gravy routes then hand the difficult work to a driver.
I can't wait till that happens, there will be many people surprised to find out that there is a lot more to truck driver than just driving, you can make the vehicles drive itself but you can't invent the machine to perform duties of a truck driver to full extent, the last 10 present of stage 4 will take them a long time to create Thank you for the video.
In the meantime, the long haul drivers will lose to level 4 for sure. Then they will compete with the local drivers in the city.
For real, how are they going to drive in the winter
@@candoallthings6748 Yes and who in their right mind would get in to a self-drive truck as a passenger 🤔
They can create androids to replace humans. Think Boston Dynamics.
@@candoallthings6748 oh it'll drive in the winter, probably at 10mph and end up stuck on a hill
You have to consider adverse weather conditions the same way you do with aircrafts. You have to consider sensor issues as well not to mention that a truck having something go wrong with its autonomous system at its weight and size is extremely dangerous to the general public. People that are not in the industry dont tend to understand the numerous complexities and conditions for operating a vehicle that weights 15 times what the average SUV weights and is 5 times the length. We are taking about a vehicle that requires the length of 3 football fields to stop at 65 mph. America roads are oftentimes covered in snow, ice and rain with high cross winds and low visibility conditions not to mention construction zones and areas of heavy traffic, tight loading docks ect.
I'm wondering if these tech scientists ever stop to create a bot that does their job instead of trying to eliminate everyone else job. That's the only thing to think about here
I see it 20+ years away level 5 won't be possible due to infrastructure hence it will become level 4, meaning a level 5 with a controlled environment.
Robotaxis are operating in phoenix I think with waymo already but still on certain roads.
Yup exactly... theirs so many things that could happen will happen to need someone to be behind the wheels and. I doubt that the government will ever allow a driverless truck on the road
Horse buggy drivers said the same thing when cars came. But remember, money conquers every opposition. And not have to pay 1.5 million truckers on a per mile basis, is a lot of money that can be saved.
It’s at least a few decades away from now
what u think about self driving trucks in future heard that in scandinavia where i live they alredy planing on realising self driving trucks witch are not good news to me as 14 year old planing on being truck driver and driving with my dad.
There are so many situations in traffic that i also think it will take a long time to get to level 5 , ...
Have you heard of radar mixed with cameras? What about cars that parallel park on their own?
How will autonomous trucks know what's happening to a flatbed trailer? Like what if the load shifts or it needs to be tightened down or needs to be re-tarped. What about over size loads like windmill propellers? I think a human will always have to be fully driving that.
I think autonomous trucks will mostly be sealed van loads
@@ghoulsleague8265 Yeah, until companies start building human robots that can drive them and eventually turn to Terminators. Then we're really screwed.
Always gonna need a human in the truck .
Cameras, sensors etc., They will be able to tell what is going on with the load better than a human driver. Oversized and heavy haul will take a lot longer to automate.
It's super complex to build completely autonomous self driving truck. It will be a few years before tesla semi release. It will take at lease 10-20 years to perfect the AI for self driving. Once that happens, government has to make new rules for this type of vehicle, that will take years to test and evaluate the safety of this practice. So give or take it will take 30+ years. By that time, you should really own a fleet and let AI do their thing. For now, I'm gonna find some way to come to Canada and get my AZ to drive.
If anything, I only think it will make the job and life of a truck driver much better in a short run.
I don’t want anything from Tesla haven’t you seen the deaths they’ve caused? They’re under investigation right now look it up wtf people are ignoring deaths?
But automatic car glitches result in your death so idk why everyone’s excited somebody will die like Tesla killed peoples sons / daughters. Disgusting honestly
There’s over 30 open investigations with injuries (AND DEATHS) MFKING THIRTY!!!!! Then the two that died in Texas Elon Musk says it’s not automation’s fault. So deaths by truck will get ducked like ohp it wasn’t our fault. What a load of bull shit
@@chanwhk I work as a Tesla supplier and the advances I have seem in just 2 years is nothing short of amazing, at this rate of innovation I give it 10 years or less
There's a lot of talk about self driving trucks that I don't support I believe it's the last thing we need right now but I truly believe we are trying to leap frog a faze. What we should be getting into are Big rig drones. Drones that people can drive from the comfort of their own homes or from a trucking company. There would be no more cross country driver fatigue and you probably would get a lot of young people who would be interested in signing up to drive a big rig drone people are already playing truck simulator games and posting them on RUclips. PS anybody who takes my big rig drone idea and tries to run with it I want my cut.
Please do an update on it because they have some new information that it’ll be here faster than we think and it’s short distance as well
Can it go through chicago
great video
I don't think there has ever been a better time to become a truck driver. I'm not sure how other companies are doing, but Prime Inc. has been getting 14% rate increases year over year for the last four years. Our pay is skyrocketing.
Still feeling like it's a good time to get in?
@@minoritymind yes I do. You've got to be intelligent about how you go about it, but the money is still good and I enjoy the work.
@@joelalvarez2090 Is Prime giving raises still? Have you seen any change in your miles? Not trolling, I genuinely want to know as I am looking at possibly getting into the industry myself.
No jobs means no tax base and no money to buy what is being delivered by the truck. Oh its damn true.
Who will get the tickets when they mess up? How will law enforcement get them to stop?
Great video
Yes they will. I already got out and I suggest you all do the same.
Driving a truck is way harder than driving a car and computers still can't drive a car on their own yet and probably won't be for another decade
Also keep in mind that computers still glitch no matter how good the program is, if & when it does glitch out it can be catastrophic & on this level it can endanger lives, it cannot be completely unmanned, it sounds good but why haven’t unmanned trains been commercially used outside of an airport for big long freight trains, trains have tracks to drive on, trucks don’t, & the roads are always under construction sometimes, ice on the road wet weather, & terrain a computer would fail at.
Crazies control can get you in a wreck in icy & rainy conditions because the Co tiger doesn’t know how to drive because if it senses a loss in traction/speed it will speed up to counter that & end up in a crash.
Now you’ve got a truck on fire w hazardous batteries releasing fumes that are far more dangerous than the tride & true diesels they replaced.
So much for cleaner more expensive design.
There is an autonomous commuter rail line I think in Brazil, it already slammed one train into the back of another.
Humans are always prone to be more accident prone than computers. But the real benefit of having a computer drive a truck is that things can only get better in self driving truck. When a problem in self driving software causes a crash and that problem is fixed, all future trucks will never cause that kind of crash again. But humans truckers will always make mistakes. New truckers will always start at novice level and take decades to become experts. Self driving trucks will have all the knowledge learnt till then from day 1.
@@bobmarsh9571 yeah, because that is how we've fixed all other computer issues and have completely resolved them... Put down the pipe sir.
Will the pay go down if drivers are only monitoring the self driving truck and only driving the trucks inner city?
Most likely
Nah . You'll just be driving probably 100 hours a week lol
All the real Experienced Truck Driver , in my modest opinion , has the most important thing that the Autonomous self-driving Trucks , will never get at the same level , and that is ..."COMON SENSE" , in a Dinamic variablility of circunstances and situations those ocure on the road, here are just a few of them, Anticipation of a posible bad driver manuver , Whether conditions to drive the best speed average to drive to make an in time deliver load , more continous hours miles driving average , good actitud oriented to satisfy the customers requirments in the load delivering , etc. etc. etc. all this things exemples are the most of the goods and Experienced Truck Driver have , and for Sure , Mr. Ronan expect they be as a representative of ET Transport.- (Foreignier Truck Driver Job seeker)
Yeah I just see automation as a way to get trucks going 18 hours a day . For a solo driver
Is it gonna self couple and raise the landing gear😅
yes they have already solved this
Level 4 trucks are of course already here.
Professional drivers will always be needed behind the wheel.
but not gonne be payed well .
cause it will be super easy to control the vehicle
@@joerandom435 they aren't payed well even now.
If you really wish to think far into the future, certainly fully autonomous trucks and other transports will eliminate the need for drivers, but not too much farther in the future the transport industry itself will be eliminated when 3D printer technology advances to the point when multiple materials can be used to create almost anything. Why buy something and wait for shipping, when you can buy the plan and make it at home with a few clicks? The people who will make money then are the content creators / inventors. It will launch a generation of IDEAs.
How much would one of those trucks cost
Vehicles that you personally don't need to drive like cars have existed since cars were invented. It is just that we call them taxis. Self driving trucks that do the A2B long distance highway driving could be on the road for 80% of these journeys today. Drivers will just complete the complex interurban journey.
It will never phase out the actual driver no matter what they implement for the fact that computers are not 100% just look at how many accidents that the tesla self driving cars have because of malfunction. Autonomous trucks are long ways from us maybe another 40-50 years
Horse buggy drivers said the same thing when cars came and ditch diggers said the same thing when tractors came. And look where are the horse buggy drivers and ditch diggers now.
@@bobmarsh9571 You must be old af if you were around listening to what horse buggy drivers were saying.. Keep dreaming Bub.
My truck gets scared by bridges... thinks is gonna crash with them at least once a day.
I think a truck without a driver is at least 20 years in the horizon, at least.
Sooooo glad I don't have to drive anything with that VORAD shit on it. I think it is becoming mandatory eventually :( I had a rental car that would lace on the brakes if you were in a curve and passed a car in an adjacent lane, I can't imagine being loaded top heavy or on ice and have it decide to slam on the brakes
Right? They can't even get lane departure and collision warning technology to work correctly.. lane departure going off for tire marks on the road, etc, and collision warning going off when there is nothing in front of you or going under an underpass like you mentioned. Some of the guys in the comment section are outright delusional if they think we are close to being able to implement technology capable of full automation of a truck.
It’s overblown. They’ve been saying this for years. Technology is far off and too many liability issues.
Good information all Pilifino Truck Driver Like me,,,
Sometimes road closed ahead accident who gonna tun-round take different way
I’m of the view that tech companies don’t understand the trucking industry. Many of the self driving trucks on interstate making deliveries have tow trucks and police escorts. As far as I know they are still required to stop at a truck stop to allow the driver a rest. Doesn’t that defeat the purpose? Also, if a driver is required to be on duty during driving they are going to need possibly two humans to take turns. Also, they gonna need potty breaks and time to eat. Also, if the trucks go further will it really solve the “being gone too long” problem that OTR drivers experience with their family?
This new tech is going to be expensive. Will it be truly adopted as fast as these tech companies think it will? They will have to pay wages to two different “drivers” I don’t think it’s going to be a overall sale.
Again, how many trucks have you driven that break down or have electrical issues? I’ve been in several. New trucks don’t stay new long. This tech out now is maintained by IT nerds who keep an eye on just a couple trucks. They keep it on tip top shape. If these manufacturers sell to Werner or Swift they not going to be properly maintained. Humans are good at driving crap equipment robots won’t be.
You sound like a blockbuster ceo in the 90’s
What happens when there’s no driver and a major computer malfunction or short circuit happens and the rig goes haywire and kills a bunch of people on the interstate? I see a shit ton of accidents and lawsuits on the horizon.
yes they will, but also the pay from driving is low and the hours grueling
We have millions of people that need jobs, you can’t just robotize everything for crying out loud! And then what?
I see it happening in certain lanes of trucking. We will probably have all-electric trucks first. Diesel trucks will be a thing of the past eventually.
Thanks by the information!
I'm a 16 years old one eyed man, that can't be a trucker in Brasil, so I'm heading to the USA.
(I'm not the man in the photo, I'm his son)
Can't be a trucker in the USA with 1 eye buddy...
but I doubt the truckers that are driving now are gonna wanna switch to that
A big problem i see is hijacking.
here is a tip, it's going to happen alot faster than people think.
Obviously you know
*slower
The obvious answer is yes and we need these self driving trucks now! Our store shelves are emptying! Christmas will be ruined without these self driving trucks!
Wrong, wait until it crashes into other automobiles or people file lawsuits
@@jmjfanss Mweh! You've never heard of Lidar then. Those spinning cylinders on top of self-driving vehicles. Teslas don't have those and they always crash.
Can it find a location which even a navigation cant find
Simple Answer: If Electric trucks end up costing half of the cost of current trucks. So if trucks today cost 150.000$ and Tesla manages to make one for 75.000$ at volume.. Every trucking company would simply have to buy a couple extra trucks as spares that they keep around with full batteries and charge them up while they sleep the rest of the time.
Any downtime is money lost.. And in the trucking business you can not have downtime if you wanna make the big bucks.
How would this affect truck stop employees, drivers dispatch employees, and other no truck drivers who make money off truck drivers? I'm a truck driver and I'm stressing out about it.
Depending on how old you are, you will probably be able to ride it out until you decide to retire. I think that with autonomous trucks being so much more efficient and cheaper to run, you're going to end up seeing A LOT lower rates in the long run. The companies running autonomous trucks will be able to undercut the market because they don't have to worry about log books and they'll get better fuel mileage. Someone has to fix them when they go down, and they will go down, they still have DEF LOL! For now. Maybe get a cert. to fix them as a plan B?
@@minoritymind it’s going to start off as a high tech version of auto pilot when that day comes. Who knows when it will be. Then it’ll go from there. We’re not living in the Jetsons era yet. You still have to be licensed and sober to ride in a Tesla car on autopilot ( which just killed 2 motorcyclist last year ) will all the tech and research put into the auto pilot in cars I don’t think the 1,000s upon 1,000s of semi are going to automatically switch over night with no driver. As bad as humans want to, they just can’t build a replica of the human brain. Self driving cars are dangerous and an unnecessary threat to public safety.
I believe there will be hella delays when the truck sensors goes bonkers the whole supply chain will get slower then ever before I believe there will always be a truck driver like you said before like airplane pilots remember airplanes don't have the degree of difficulty of navigating through highways cities accidents weather backing and docking trucks driver do alot.... other then driving and plus our infrastructure is not even close for driverless vehicles hell Tesla just recently released their new fsd beta was supposed to be superior still a level 2 vehicle and within 2 weeks it had an accident when the car was making a left turn it was in the wrong lane and the driver tried to pull the vehicle to the right lane Tesla vehicle override him and pull them back to the left lane and had a head-on crash collision so yea where like 30 years away if we get there in this lifetime
That’s Y. My boss been S. Withe me last few days 🥺
They are here already
This is what's likely to happen:
First look at this from a competitive standpoint, with one self driving truck they will be able to save the salary of two drivers, because a computer is not required to take mandatory brakes, it can roll 24/7, at today's rate we are getting about .70 cpm, that's 90k a year per driver, times 2 that's 180k savings and that's huge, we are talking OTR obviously. So for the past 10 yrs all manufacturers are either doing joint venture with software companies like tusimple, Aurora, Waymo, etc or developing their own technology. Now look at it from a carrier standpoint, they are trying to position themselves to outcompete other carriers by putting hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars of pre-orders, once they start hitting the road they're gonna become super flaming hot commodities. By 2024 we are gonna see hundreds even thousands of self driving trucks with drivers watching over, now do you think companies are gonna pay you .70 cpm to sit there and watch??? Maybe the first 2 yrs once they see they're safe that rate I can assure you is gonna go down. By 2027 we will see 10s of thousands of them, AND WE WILL SEE THE FIRST GENERATION OF FULLY 100% AUTONOMOUS TRUCKS, NO DRIVERS, they won't do city driving, they will only do OTR, then a local guy will deliver the load, but the money is in OTR right??? Oh well that will start to disappear by 2027, by 2032 my guess is there will not be a single truck driver in any interstate in the US. The type of attitude "I wanna see these trucks putting chains, making a turn in brooklyn or backing into a dock, etc" won't help you, I saw these technologies, they can do what humans do only much, much better, they have redundancy systems, many, many safety features, in the beginning there will be problems, accidents, sure, but the technology will only keep getting better.
Flatbeds, oversize, the types of loads that require on route adjustments will continue to be done by drivers or a mixed of driver/autonomous. Eventually that famous "Driver shortage" is just gonna be a matter of producing more trucks, once supply and demand shifts in favor of carriers this current market of .75 cpm is gonna be the good old days. If you are building your own fleet and you think you'll just switch to autonomous too, that won't happen, the huge demand will create a backlog of hundreds of thousands of units and all the big guys with their deep pockets will be ahead of you, that's why they are already putting down billions of dollars as deposits.
So the million dollar question: what do we do? Well in the next 3-4 yrs hit the road as hard as you can, save as much as you can every níquel, while rates are still this high, forget that trip to Vegas, forget that new Harley, forget your mistress, use pornhub instead, then put all your money in rental properties, real estate, the chances of succeeding in another venture are slim, learn to grow your own food indoors, in a greenhouse, look at the rivers tributaries levels the logs in the dry bottoms, look at the failing maize crops everywhere, according to the IPCC we need to reach cero co2 emissions worldwide by 2027 if we want to save the planet, china and india already informed they will peak emissions by 2030 and reach cero emissions by 2060, 😂😂 we are fucked beyond comprehension it's gonna get much worse, the automation and AI will take over the economy in the next 20 yrs we are heading for a climate disaster never seen in history and a world like that movie "The time machine". With UBI of 25k a year and the first few trillonaires. I hope this help.
Brilliant, genius assesment comment! Finally! ...AI ! Lords! Have to add... Computers have been known to get hacked. What if hackers could control those tons of metal and goods. It Isn't unheard of, and this is what also terrifingly
goes along with all that technology. "Sure there will be problems and accidents at first" I don't the future to look like that freaky movie
Where are you from? Euipoe or something? NOT North America?
I doubt it
I still have 6 years before i can enter the scene. Im really worried.
I'm afraid to go to CDL school to take my CDL driving test and if I invested a lot of money just in school then I'll come out of school and then there is not going to be no jobs because of self driving trucks took over the industry..
I would love to be a truck driver but everyone is telling me not to get into Trucking. because of self-driving trucks are going to be taking over the trucking industry soon. that's going to be a big unemployment millions of drivers will be out of jobs. Will Trucking companies switch over to self-driving trucks? are self-driving trucks I threaten the trucking industry? do you know anything about this?
Don't listen to people telling u what to do, if you like trucking just go trucking. I been truck driver for almost 1 years and I am making money 💰 🤑
Hi how can I become a truck driver
Yes self driving trucks coming out in 2024 tusimple trucks driving by themselves right now....
The bigger threat in the near future wouldn't be total elimination of trucking jobs but only needing 3 guys to remotely monitor 100 trucks...which would have multiple lines of communication...5G, 4G, and satellite and maybe HD Radio as a backup...like how military drones work with remote backup...and the autonomous aspect of the trucks handle routine aspects of limited access driving and hand off edge cases to the humans. All you would need to be is better than human drivers and companies and insurance companies would save money, regardless of who is paying...insurance costs are paid by the end consumer today and will be in the future too. No one generously picks up that tab for you, make no mistake about it. 🤷♂️ I could see this happening soon (next decade or so) last mile driving probably will need people longer due to more edge cases and bandwidth issues.
I wouldn’t trust a self driving truck going down curvy mountains
Self driving trucks will come but the world isn’t ready for them
The comparison between autonomous driving and airliners is a bit off. There is lots of automation in an airplane but it is much easier to program an airplane when there is nothing in the way. That said, the pilots still have to take off, climb to cruise, decend and land an have to be able to fly by hand with a high skill level. The pilot has to input all the data of the take off, input all the waypoints and monitor radios and data on the systems used by the airlines to communicate with the airplane. This is even with all of the most modern tech used now. Flying/Driving skills are perishable. The more automation is used, the more skill is lost. Training has to be increased to keep these skills fresh. The pilots also have the advantage of air traffic control keeping them separate. That is why trucks will have a much longer time until they reach even the current level of automation in aircraft today.
Autonomous driving for a tractor trailer will be just like flying an aircraft ✈️ you will ofto have a pilot or driver to check if all computer management system are working properly be ready to take over if computer management system fails the tractor trailer will ofto be driven manually by a human.
no company cares about level 4 they will get lvl 5 eventually and immediately maximise their profit margin, why would they want to still employ a driver after all the billions invested in tech they want the driver gone completely and they will get there at some point.
Just imagine all the truck stops and other jobs that would be thrown out if it happens. Fast food joints. Family restaurants, pilots flying j’s loves Iowa 80. Truck washes. Dispatchers, yard dogs, and more. America would have so many displaced workers including truckers that the economical impact would be felt across America. The day a truckers job is replaced is the day America will hurting.
ubi will happen some day
They’ll start killing off the population once that happens
I guess I’m the only that see that coming