A Falling World: A Conversation with Peter Zeihan (Episode
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- Опубликовано: 30 сен 2024
- Sam Harris speaks with Peter Zeihan about the unraveling world order. They discuss the Bretton Woods system, America’s role in securing the global supply chain, the coming end of American security guarantees, the shrinking of the US Navy, Houthi terrorism, deterring Iran, conflict in the Middle East, the future of Israel, the limits of immigration, the demographic pyramid, the demise of Europe, the war in Ukraine, the prospect of nuclear war, demographic collapse in China, loose nukes, America’s relative immunity to the world’s chaos, U.S. debt, the U.S. Southern border and immigration policy, why Trump will not win the 2024 election, and other topics.
Peter Zeihan is a geopolitical strategist and a global energy demographic and security expert. Over the course of his career, Peter has worked for the US State Department in Australia, the DC think tank community, and helped develop the analytical models for Stratfor, one of the world’s premier private intelligence companies. In 2012, Peter founded his own firm, Zeihan on Geopolitics, in order to provide a select group of clients with direct, custom analytical products. Today those clients represent a vast array of sectors including energy majors, financial institutions, business associations, agricultural interests, universities, and the U.S. military.
Peter is a critically acclaimed author whose first two books - The Accidental Superpower and The Absent Superpower - have been recommended by Mitt Romney, Fareed Zakaria, and Ian Bremmer. His other books include Disunited Nations: The Scramble for Power in an Ungoverned World and The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization.
Website: zeihan.com/
Twitter: @PeterZeihan
RUclips: / @zeihanongeopolitics
February 21, 2024
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I wish you would just put the full episodes on RUclips. It's asking a lot, but you're always talking about clarifying your views. I don't want to pay for another service and I don't want to request free access as a favor. But I jump on your videos as soon as they are published, would love to see the whole conversations. Thank you for putting yourself out there
Why not ask for free access? He has a full time customer service staff that pretty much just gives out free subscriptions.
Just buy one less 10 bag a month ey?
I asked for a free account but never got a reply...
Dude. You obviously feel that Sam's content is valuable or you wouldn't have taken the time to write your message. Make a financial sacrifice or ask for the scholarship deal.....have a great day 😊
You only get 6 months for free
Peter has predicted 12 of the last 3 global crisis 😂
which is of course much better than 0 out of 3 like for everyone else of the Experts
So 1/4 of his predictions were right? That's great for an analyst lol
@@hamzamahmood9565 you got it backwards. His prediction rate is 400% accurate lol.
@@davethepants how would that be better...?
That gives him more success than any of the others
8:27 he actually starts the interview with Peter
The real question is does Harris ever stop being a sold his soul schill for the evil corrupt commies?
Thank you Sam is unbearable in a solo conversation
Humanity exists!!
@@Unsleeping_eye , I'm surprised how prejudiced Sam is about Trump .4 years of peace , economic security and secure country isn't of concern for Sam ? Sad , I really like most of what he says and agree but not that .
thanks. that rant was driving me nuts
I work in automated logistics. What Peter says about automation not being able to solve this problem is correct, though it’s complicated. Automation is way more expensive than most would guess and robotics requires tons of maintenance and oversight.
I think Robotics is one classification of automation.
If we can maintain and oversee ourselves AGI robots will be able to do it as well, believe me ;)
@@dathx for sure robotics is only a subset of overall automation but its growing rapidly in the vehicle realm.
@@vykintasmorkvenas6839 I think you miss the point here…. It’s a matter of cost not capability that limits automation most. If a robot that costs 1M replaces the work of 2 people, your return on investment is way too low to justify the expense. I think you also underestimate the complexity of maintenance and fault management.
@@patrickhassing120 believe me when AGI takes over, old economy will be forgotten for good.
I really wish Sam offered monthly memberships, rather than yearly. There are only a handful of episodes I want to fully listen to (like this one), but 100 dollars if a bit much for that. If I could get 1 month for, say, 10 dollars, I would be happy to do that......
You can ask Sam for discount. I believe he offers free access to people who can't afford it.
100% true, same for news media, I wish I could buy articles because I’m not going to pay for subscriptions. Even if the best articles, papers or interviews were $10 I would pay that.
He starts the interview around 8:57 for those here for the Peter Zeihan part of this interview with Peter Zeihan.
Thank you for the timeline. I have never listened to Sam Harris and was outraged by the idiocy of his introduction.
@@sirruss101 It….went…..on…..and on…..and on
Sam did a good job pushing back on Zeihan to get a better explanation than you usually get out of him. Well done. That being said I always skip the intro lol who knows what weird stuff Sam went off on this time
Yes I had to skip through the intro. It was basically a dump of his character judgments of the extreme right...without detailed explanation.
Maybe he should interview people from the right. Use your platform to lay out how all these crackpots and idiots are so insane. But he never will..
Sam picks some great guests and asks some good questions but is ridiculously naive about history and how countries work.
In case you don't know: Peter does a video everyday, very early, at Zeihan on Geopolitics here on RUclips. They are often very stimulating and the discussions on his page are great.
Oh, . . . and it's free.
also he's an amazing guest...find him with a good interviewer and it brings out the best...
It would be a shame to support someone who spends time providing you a service. Good thing it's free.
@@russellhammond371 Yeah it is a good thing. I would never pay to hear Harris speak. All his good ideas were used up by Jan Cox thirty years before The End of Faith. I was only here to hear what Ziehan had to say in this context. I like his insights on the effects of geography on virtually everything. Not that I dislike Harris. I agree with him on almost everything, except that he knows how to wake up or especially tell other people how to wake up, that well, it's hard to tell. I mean you can be sure if someone is talking or writing that they aren't awake at that moment. And if I didn't know the works of Jan Cox I would really think Harris was something. But I think he has handed out the ideas of Cox as his own too too often without attribution. There are just too many of them with exactly the same wording to be coincidence. The main difference being that Cox IMHO was actually awake, at least in the last five years of his life.
@@jmcw9632 And like almost anywhere else on earth, from New Zealand to India , to Mexico, and on.
@@apokatastasian2831 That's very true. I am appreciating his present series of monologues on _____________ (fill in the blank) after America, quite a lot though. Often someone in his online audience knows more about a particular subject than he does and they do not hesitate at all to let us know in the comments. That is sort of my favorite part. All the typical praise is just white noise to me.
Please have on Stephen Kotkin.
He won’t. Sam doesn’t hav😂 on anyone he disagrees with too much . Making sense is an echo chambet
why.
Stephen's above this lol
I like listening to Peter but when he talks about Israel (my country) he gets some basic stuff wrong, which leads me to doubt his understanding on other matters
Like what
@@ryanhawkos Well, though he's generally right about many ultra-Orthodox not working (not all) and being an economic drag on society, they are nowhere near 30-40% of the population, more like 12%. They also did not hold any positions of power relevant to the Oct 7 attacks and were not responsible. The failure was the military's and the defense establishment's and pm's, none of whom are ultra-Orthodox. He seems to be possibly creating a mish-mash out of the ultra-Orthodox society and right-wing religious groups, which are distinct communities with different politics and interests. But even then it's not clear where he derived the claim they are thought responsible for the events. This is not at all the perception. His knowledge on this appears superficial.
Also, initially after the attack Zeihan claimed on several occasions that it is thought it was carried out by some new more radical previously unknown offshoot of Hamas, rather than its main forces. Nobody here thought this and I saw nobody claim that except him. He never offered a source for the claim.
@@itamarsharon Thanks for your input. I think PZ chooses to massage “facts” to fit his narrative, especially obscure “facts”. He’s still entertaining but far too loose on truth & far too impressed by himself. I’ve been watching him for 10yrs. from time to time.
@@itamarsharon Great to get an insight from someone with on the ground knowledge of Israel. If you look into Peter's assumptions they are often half truths or sometimes downright wrong. How is Morocco one of the most advanced states in the region by any measure? For a start, Morocco isn't even in the Middle East. I guess he can get away with this sort of thing because Americans' knowledge of geography is so woeful.
Yeah that’s the story for everyone’s individual areas of experience.
Always interesting to listen to - just be aware that Flute-snoot (Zeihan) is not the be all and end all of information.
This guy has a real dungeons and dragons vibe. I feel like he’s talking about a video game the whole time.
If he ever says "Roll a 20 sided ..."
That’s hilarious!
50 minutes of 2 of the most insufferable fake intellectuals on the internet LOL
@@p.chuckmoralesesquire3965 found the Tim Pool moron
@@p.chuckmoralesesquire3965 I thought the same thing
While I'm not really in touch with Sam's meditation side, I do think he is _very_ reasoned and rational. Curious the number of Trumpidiots that show up to try and troll people into replying to their nonsense. 😏
Very interesting topics - the level of hubris from Peter Z is however unberable. He makes each and every claim with 100% certainty as though its all a foregone conclusion. Its just over the top.
The ponderous exhalations, the up talking, it’s all so nauseating
Harris talks and talks and talks about what people talk about and then asks us to pay for it. I skipped to ahead to Zeihan because he talks about issues and ideas.and often has his own unique talk on an aspect of geohistory ord geopolitics.
32:00 Minor correction: the last empire to occupy the land of Israel was Britain, not Turkey. Turkey was there before the Brits.
Would you consider publishing the full episodes some time after the premiere? Three months?
But China will have collapsed by then
Yo....just get a subscription for free.
@@zachmorgan6982 How?
@@zachmorgan6982 I've had a free subscription for three years already. At this point, I just feel bad, but I don't have enough to justify another subscription. But here my watch time can still report something back to them,
@@zachmorgan6982they typically only give it in 3 month increments. I'd be happy to pay for an individual episode, but paying for a subscription for a podcast that is released irregularly doesn't work.
This was a super important podcast Sam I wish you could have at least let this one go all the way on RUclips
Peter Zeihan is pretty the only one who actually UNDERSTANDS whata heck is going on in the world
That's how I used to play Age of Mythology or Age of Empires. Grow your population (mostly farmer) as quickly as possible with limited number of military. Once you've enough resources, then increase your military to help you to expand. At the same time, keep growing your farmer population. Then, expand the territory towards the natural barriers (lakes, valleys, etc.) and put up a wall and tower between the natural barriers - so less border to protect. Then, go crazy with production within your safe border. Meanwhile, let others savage each other ("choose your priority"). Once you became powerful enough, you could then defeat the rest. It's really a very simple logic. Even though the equation could become much more complicated in the Wonder creation game type. The winner will be the one who create a wonder & holds it for a few minutes irrespective of population, territory or resources. So the above strategy might not work on its own. Then, you should put all your effort in destroying the wonder of your enemy and forget about expanding your population (risky business). Once the wonder is destroyed, back to population expansion. Moto is population, population & population.
P.S: The above is a strategic computer game. It seems Peter used to play it a lot too. A lot (not all) of what Peter says sound logical. But... (I ran out of time).
You would have been one of those players I Would have rushed…By the 5 min make I would had a small raiding party harassing your villagers while building barracks & stables right outside your base then by 9-10 min mark start flooding your base with wave after wave of troops until you type GG ! Mythology was ok but AOE 3 was my fav !
Prostagma. Heard they are remaking age of mythology.
@@forgemaster6120 Yeah - it's called age of mythology retold. It might have got Peter too excited.
I play with my brother and father - father on the wall, me or my brother in the middle on Oasis (water in the middle so you just need to build two long walls) so one of us gets an army faster. Get a big population, break down the wall and run through defeating one enemy at a time. Mostly just strong horses and trebuchets. We suck at this game and don't play against real people. Good family bonding.
Tucker asked Putin if he would release the US reporter he had and let him come back to the US with Tucker. I suspect you know that Sam and not including that is kind of a bad look.
I like Peter a lot but he does play fast and loose with facts sometimes. Usually i dont like people who do that, but he is the one example i can think of who does not do it maliciously. I do largely agree with the "demography over ideas" angle but i think the split is more 60/40 rather than pne or the other
Explain how?
@@cooldudecsone way to look at it is a set of pressures where a demographic structure supports a certain production and consumption profile, but that desired profile is either supported or hindered by the technologies and resources available. These fairly predictable conditions are then interpreted by a people based on cultural institutions, which themselves are a product of geography and history.
This sort of analysis works fairly well on strategic level, but, because it is based on generatuonal understanding of history and technology, it has to be updated as each cohort comes of age and it will often miss new high impact techologies or emergent political ideologies.
@@ianbelanger7459 What ideologies do you see coming out of China that will benefit a civilizational collapse of people population? How about Germany that when pressured like this for existentialism usually goes nuts trying to take over its neighbors? Or Russia who well is showing you what a dying civilization will do to survive in its geographical and demographic situation. You make sense but the proof is in the pudding on current events. He has not updated his points because it’s clear as day. The USA is the only part of the world away from geo/ demo disasters. Similar to the immigration boom of the Perris Island days
This is last time I eve listen to Sam Harris. He is not objective.
Thanks for your opinion. Very insightful.
of course he isn't. He's a human being. The second you have an opinion you are no longer objective.
Sam Harris did better journalism here than Tucker Carlson has done ever.
By repeating what CNN said. Right.
@@Mac-ku3xu Senile to the point of comedy.
If by "journalism" you mean being a sold his soul schill for the evil corrupt commies, then yes, Harris did better than Carlson in that regard. At least Tucker tells the Truth. Harris is just another depraved evil State run propaganda outlet. So sad.
That's not a high bar.
Sam Harris lost his mind several years ago due to TDS.
Your content is not unique enough to justify a subscription fee. There’s tons of very qualified people covering these same topics. Wake up
Neither Harris nor Zeihen understands the important idea of "fungible" with respect to energy.
This deep fake is brilliant (joking Sam).
Sam, please consider Vlad Vexler as a philosopher and Russo-Ukrainian war. He is GREAT. Thank for your content
SH starts the podcast with unabashed polarization, even referring to someone else's "arrogant ignorance." 😂 Why do I even try with this guy?
It has become a problem for Sam and he should examine it.
Yes, sam, the master protectionist. HE would benefit from some jungian therapy, methinks
He´s not polarizing. He´s calling things by their name.
@@marionow6227 "polarizing" refers to acknowledging only two "names" to call from, that happen to be effectively opposites
@@jacobcochrane9069umm so whats your point?
When I hear someone confidently making predictions dramatically against those of most other people, my question is: Why should I think you're right? What is your record of past predictions, for example?
Yeah I really wish Sam would have questioned him more. Peter usually just says things with nobody there to ask for explanation. Sam seemed to just let him rant and only asked questions to further Peter or he just changed the topic.
Peter predicted the Russian invasion of Ukraine down to the year
He said bitcoin was going to zero a year ago. 😂 Basically perfectly timed the bottom. 👌
He literally predicted the Russian invasion down to the year it would happen back in 2015.
Why is it all or nothing? Are you looking for information from humans who are fallible, biased, and mostly well-intentioned - or a cult leader?
Dan Stone just appeared on Dan Carlin's show Hardcore History: Addendum. Really good listen! So Dan Stone has indeed been out there doin' podcasts!
Carlin is always first class.
Awesome! Huge fan of Hardcore History and Dan's work in general!
The way Dan Stone talks about Gaza/Israel near the end of that pod is likely the reason why he doesn't want to talk to Sam
@@jon4139 Honestly not sure what you're referring to. I even just re-listened to it and nothing that was said was inconsistent with Sam's expressed views.
@@IraSargent You think Sam characterizes the situation as "Israelis genociding Gazans" like Dan does?
Listening to Peter Zeihan talk sounds like a 15 year old kid weilding adult knowledge - low hangin' fruit case-in-point; "we made it very clear to [Putin] that if nukes were used on any NATO territory anywhere in the world, that the first nuke to go back would be targeting him personally - and that focused a few minds in the Kremlin."
That's dope, Pete.
41:30 - end is best summary of demographic curve outcomes i heard to this point!
I love how around 45 minutes in he says the boomers' children are millennials. Completely forgetting about generation X, like everyone always does.
I feel ya pain. 😂
im just glued to this, waiting for one positive emotion to emerge.
This Zeihan guy is making some WILD PREDICTIONS. GERMANY WONT EVEN EXIST IN 25 TO 30 YEARS? WTF? WHATS CAUSING THIS POPULATION CRISIS.
Man this guy has some original takes ill give him that. Super interesting
He's grifting hard that's for sure.
Good interview. I always enjoy listening to Peter expanding on his ideas. I like Sam Harris too.
Peter Zeihan's wrong takes are always entertaining to listen to. The idea that the U.S. has been a 'side participant' in the post WWII economic order is one of the dumbest things I've heard him say. The US benefits enormously from the trade network we worked to establish. And by the US, I mainly mean US corporations. The US consumes 20% of the world's oil supply. yes, we produce a lot, but still import almost half. The USGS says the average american needs 40,000 lbs of minerals per year to maintain our standard of living. US per capita plastic waste is 5 times the global average. I could go on.
What the US did was turn the success of the global trade network inward, and it created a never-ending , never-satisfied consumption driven economy. This would not exist without our ability to extract resources from the around the world -backed by the US military. This was spelled out in state department policy docs from the 50's. But to Zeihan, since Nafta-excluded exports are 5%, we are a side participant lol. Tell that to Central Americans, who saw US military or proxy soliders on their soil, on behalf of companies like United Fruit. Is Zeihan just completely unaware of the Banana Wars? And I guess the fact we have 800 military bases around the world doesn't make us an empire - thats a relief!
His demographic analyses have some truth to them but he is always insanely out of touch with reality when it comes to the United State's role in global trade. Its barely concealed propaganda.
Wow, that was like a history lesson. You provided proper context. Well done sir 👏
I think the US is now _by far_ the world's largest oil producer, and a net exporter.
@@gsomethingsomething2658 Thats true, the US both imports and exports large amounts of oil. A lot of that has to do with how our refineries our setup to process heavy vs light crude. And really a lot of our production increase, and our ability to become a net exporter, has come from shale oil which has leveled off and is probably going to seriously decline. Investment in these wells is way down if you look at recent data. But this is all beside the point. Per-capita oil consumption in this country is 3 times what it is in most European countries. There's no reason for us to be driving gas guzzler SUV's around just to go the grocery store. But we do it, because we can. The American way of life is incredibly wasteful. If we don't recognize that, how are we going to solve these problems?
@@everetthamby4387lmao who cares about per capita when we make most of what we need meanwhile the Europeans can’t even defense themselves, European way of life is only possible with globalization and US military protection. European way of life is extremely wasteful for US tax payers and I’m glad both sides of the aisle are agreeing that this has to either end or change significantly.
The amount of things you got wrong is dumb asf 😂 the US and Canada alone produce 25 percent of what OPEC can produce and that’s just two countries that doesn’t include Mexico and any other non OPEC nations which is one of the reasons OPEC can’t bully anyone anymore because their oil share is enough to so anymore which again Peter predicted years ago. I love how some of you use per capita to justify ur claims and say the U.S. way of life is wasteful when no it’s that we produce most of what we need which affords us that right meanwhile the European way of life is extremely wasteful especially on the U.S. tax layer which still to this day pays for 68 percent of NATOs bills and 20 NATO nations still haven’t met their 2 percent GDP agreement on NATO oh and let’s not forget the two largest countries in Europe are at war with tens of millions displaced and hundreds of thousands dead but yet our way of life is wasteful yeah no🤣. Last time I checked Latin America views the U.S. in good terms like Colombia that invited US military action to route of Pablo Escobar and till this day we have a U.S. military presence or let’s go to Argentina that now in their own decided to peg their currency to the USD or Mexico which is now the U.S. top trading partner and here now over 31 million Mexicans decided to willingly move to, have you forgotten Brazils actions in Latin America? Britain’s involvement, French involvement, Spains involvement and also I bet you didn’t know Israeli Mossad was caught making the flights paths for Gary Webb when he was flying drugs into the US.
Just face it even Biden is a populist president because both sides of the aisle recognize paying for globalization is not working for us anymore it’s actually benefiting our adversaries more then us and our Allie’s obligations to at least pay their small fair share to the U.S. military isn’t being met.
37:00 Sad that one has to listen to a non-german source to hear the true numbers and future of Germany. German women have had way too few children and immigration has already changed Germany forever.
Even without the numeric facts going out on the streets of cities is sufficient.
I suggest you take his predictions with a grain of salt. Just scroll through the comments and watch other creators on RUclips critiquing his predictions. He has a tendency to pick the worse case scenario research to give dramatic and sensational predictions and more often than not he has surface level knowledge on the subject at best.
@@mohamedkamari9061 Yes I expected as much, but the numbers are real and the problems already exist.
Are the problems as bad as he stated? Another problem i have with his predictions is that he discards human ingenuity, he presents his predictions as if states seeing an existential problem before their eyes would not react and try to solve it. Many people before him were making these doomsday predictions and were proven wrong, case in point the economist Thomas Malthus who predicted that uncontrolled population growth would lead to a depletion of resources, increased pollution, overcrowding, and increased unemployment when the population was less than 1 billion, but we discovered more efficient ways of growing food and now the population is 8 billion and we have fewer famines than then. All i'm saying is as long as people recognize there is a problem and move to solve it, eventually they will.
@@0MoTheG are the problems in Germany as bad as he says? Another problem i have with his doomsday predictions is they do not take into account human ingenuity when faced with existential problems, that humanity will just sit and take it. Many people before him predicted that humanity will go extinct because of one or another problem, case in point Thomas Malthus who predicted that uncontrolled population growth will lead to depletion of resources, increased pollution, overcrowding and unemployment when the population was less than 1 billion, but when the need rose more efficient ways of farming were invented and we are now at 8 billions. Another case is china who he has been predicting its collapse in the next 10 years since 2010 i believe, and they are now better off than in 2010 i think. As soon as n existential problem presents itself people move to solve it.
@0MoTheG are the problems in Germany as bad as he says? Another problem i have with his doomsday predictions is they do not take into account human ingenuity when faced with existential problems, that humanity will just sit and take it. Many people before him predicted that humanity will go extinct because of one or another problem, case in point Thomas Malthus who predicted that uncontrolled population growth will lead to depletion of resources, increased pollution, overcrowding and unemployment when the population was less than 1 billion, but when the need rose more efficient ways of farming were invented and we are now at 8 billions. Another case is china who he has been predicting its collapse in the next 10 years since 2010 i believe, and they are now better off than in 2010 i think. As soon as n existential problem presents itself people move to solve it.
That’s a very one dimensional view of the Putin interview.
Great conversation, but I will suggest that Peter is a bit premature in terms of writing Germany's obituary. The demographic issue is real, but so is immigration and automation. The energy starvation issue is real, but Russia will eventually lose the war and there's plenty of low cost oil and gas that will be looking for a market to help the Kremlin pay for the rebuilding of Ukraine. Yes, the war is a wild card, but the combined resources of EU and the USA ensure only one outcome, long term.
How is Russia going to lose the war? They have production, resources, men, an air force, and no other countries still believe Russia are coming for them. An nobody else wants to take them out since they have nukes.
The lack of enough vessels to maintain the red sea trade passage makes me think of that sound bite from the Romney Obama debates. Something about bayonettes.
Britain, EU, NATO, AND The USA seems to make it doable task
(SingSong) Sammy's got a new drop!
I've said this before. Sam needs to get back on here for free and almost daily. The people he speaks against have bigger audiences because they are more accessible. Either that or he does the rounds on other channels a lot more this year. A year where his arguments will be needed more than ever.
He also should re-consider doing video podcasts
The people he speaks against have bigger audiences because Sam has lost the war of ideas
There was a war of ideas?@@madallas_mons
Sam is a sold out schill for the evil corrupt commies. Those whackadoodles already have vastly too much influence. So no, Sam should definitely NOT be heard by more folks.
Quality is more important than quality. There are way too many people talking almost daily about things they don't really understand. It just adds to the confusion and information overload.
Look bro I like some of the conversations you are having but not enough for a 100 per year cost
You can request a scholarship and pay as much as you think the podcast is worth.
Just skip the first 8 and a half minutes, it is meaningless dribble 8:29
Zeihan successfully predicted 20 of the last 3 global crises.
He predicted Ukraine... He predicted the rise of American Empire... He successfully predicts Chinas current civilization's collapse... The final one is the big one... The global civilization is now going tobe broken up... American Empire and everyone else that wants to join..
Nice
I love Zeihan's analysis style, but yeah, you're spot on! Man does love his doom.
@@markpukey8 Zeihan is really an entertainer. He's a fun, likeable guy who likes to talk a lot.
When Sam’s podcasts were free I made a donation of $100. This would have been in 2016. I had no problem with it. He was the sharpest critic of Trump at the time and I felt like he was doing a valuable service. Then he put up a paywall and it kind of rubbed me the wrong way. If everyone who listened to his podcasts donated $100 Sam would be a very wealthy man (or at least he would have enough to run a podcast). His expenses can’t be that high. He doesn’t do video. So I content myself to these abbreviated versions. Also there’s a limit to how much time I want to spend on anyone source. I subscribe to the Atlantic and the Economist and several other podcasters. There aren’t enough hours in the day.
Gotta play this on at least 1.5x speed
45:35 US fertility plummeted in the 60s and 70s, which is when the Boomers came of age. The big unstated reason why US population growth has held up is the influx of MASSIVE numbers of Mexicans from the 1980s into the early 2000s, who had higher fertility rates.
Yep, which is why the collective median IQ continues to fall.
This was a somewhat scary conversation I must say. In terms of the demographics countries with low population, but seeing as total population is increasing in particular, in the very poor countries, I think it would be interesting to talk about how these countries are going to shape the world
More Third World... say good bye to space. We slowly regress.
27:00 Destroying or not destroying Irans oil production is not simply about rethinking policy. As you said earlier oil is sold on a global market. If Iran stopped producing, the price would skyrocket.
My reaction to Peter is pretty much the same as Sam. I don’t understand how he can be so confident in his opinions. The world seems so complicated these days. And so difficult to predict. It seems like every year there’s a new development that totally changes the landscape. I do find him to be a likable guy.
Spoiler alert: They are both intelligence agency assets.
@@Mac-ku3xu sure dude, "person not saying America is the root of all evil therefore person CIA" = watertight syllogism
@@angusgus123He has a consistent pattern in his messaging that is very suspicious. And look up "Operation Mockingbird".
If you start with geography, demographics, food production, and energy his analysis is almost deterministic from there. There is a logic to it as scary or off-putting as it seems.
he's really not very smart and is constantly wrong
About Zeihan's demographic focus, a human doesn't have an inherent net value to the system, perhaps in capitalism you'd need say 1000 people born to have 1-10 people who are extremely productive, and the rest can scale from medium-low-zero productiveness, all to say people aren't needed, workers in the given system are needed, you've got 0% chance of success without people but also it's not the people themself that equal success, it'd depend the individual human asset but also they're only a useful resource dependant on system goal and integration
Correction: the population in Israel that he was referring to is not 30 percent , it’s
13.
He is including arab citizens of israel in that number
It's 13 going on 30 - it's a well known concept.
Also he was blaming October 7th on them? What on earth was he talking about?
Yeah he’s wrong about a lot of things and misspeaks all the time
@@LarrenceUmpersaltthey're currently in power. Though 13% seems small, it's enough to get Netanyahu a coalition and thus actually hold power way above their representative percentage.
32:43 , 'What are your expectations for the future of Israel given the durability of the hatred of the surrounding Islamic cultures '. Sam, have you ever wondered whether this aversion to Israel could have something to do with Israel's brutal occupation policy? The stealing of land, the imprisonment and persecution of thousands of rightful residents? And since a few months the mass murders of the imprisoned residents of Gaza?
Ya gotta put more info about what the conversation is about in the title of the video.
You know there's a description that elaborates, right?
I did not
At the 36 - 40 minute mark: The ultra orthodox do not control the defense department in Isreal.
Zionists control Israel..
Psyonists control ishrahell
They vote in politicians who appeal to the ultra orthodox who don’t listen to professionals because they are political populists. Hes talking about benjamin
The scope of topics in this conversation is all we want lucid and competent opinions on from knowledgeable guests and clear thinking hosts.
I thought I would give Sam another chance, TDS (Trump and Tucker) straight out of the gate
Same... Popped up in the feed, after not listening to him in years. TDS damaged him neurologically, and irreparably; the $ꞇꭤꭑꓒꬲꭑוֹꞇ plunged him into Nietzschean psychotic abyss.
To all those questioning Peter or Sam for that matter on their ''Confidence''. Well, confidence sells. Strong opinions are belived more readily than ''maybe'' and ''perhaps''. Because most people seek answers, not further questions. It is good for engagement to have answers and bold claims.
And everyone forgets Zeihan said China would be a failed state because he starts making noisy claims about nuclear war or Russia invading Canada.
Harris is just another a sold his soul schill for the evil corrupt commies. Easy to be confident when you have the evil corrupt commie propaganda machine behind you.
Ask him about his Bitcoin predictions when he was on JRE lol
I enjoy listening to and reading Zeihan, but one thing that concerns me is his seeming expertise on everything. This is usually a red flag to me.
Peter’s been wrong a lot.
Know-it-all with expertise in their field vs just someone with expertise in their field.
Kinda like Harris' expertise on everything which he gets confirmed by only inviting into his echo chamber people who agree with his basic assumptions.
Zeihan and Harris are birds of a feather in that respect.
@@twntwrs I hate that there's truth to this. But he is a brilliant person, and realistically people like to hear the political takes of brilliant people. even if it isnt their field
What Sam, Zeihan and other focus upon is Morality and Endless Money. And, seem to discount crime, increasing difficulties for at least 1/3 of Americans in terms of living month-to-month and the acclaimed budgetary problems increasingly being expressed by the Mayors of our larger cities in absorbing dependent migrants our government policies seem to have made legal by allowing their entry.
When you make Sam Harris go “Jesus Christ”!!!
@@J31I guess it must be because he’s intelligent enough to know the distinction between a private conversation and propaganda 🤔
@@ryandubois7419the difference is he thinks he's intelligent enough, but you aren't. he's been on that dead horse for awhile now ...
couched in his statement is the assumption that either: if he were interviewing Putin he'd do a better job...and/or the assumption that no dialogue whatsoever with the russian position is worthwhile.
both dubious claims on their face.
you don't have to fanboy tucker or putin to know some dialogue is better than no dialogue.
to know no other journalists were going to do it
..and you have to be insane to expect a journalist to go in guns blazing with a man that might shoot you with polonium pellets.
the rest is just partisan kneejerk 3minutes hate...full stop
as always for the last years, I expected/hoped for a reasonable take from Sam and got a lefty brainwormed version instead
@@apokatastasian2831 If you enjoy having the diarrhea of Russian propaganda sprayed in your eyes, ears, and mouth, then by all means continue. But let’s not pretend that this was a constructive dialogue.
@@J31Hey, I agree that it’s sad that that’s the state of affairs. But, that’s how it is: the average person simply doesn’t care enough to educate themselves on things or acknowledge truths that make them a little uncomfortable.
If you doubt it: 1/5 of young Americans don’t believe the Holocaust happened. And 3/4 of Americans are gullible enough to still believe in God, like a bunch of adults that can’t cope without the idea of Santa Claus.
People really are dumb and that’s why propaganda works. That’s one reason why we need expertise. That’s one reason why we have a representative democracy instead of a true democracy in The States: the average person simply can’t be trusted with an opinion on things this important.
This dude is not very credible. Z has been making wildly unfounded statements for so long. Interesting thinker, but hard to take at face value.
Thank you Sam and thank you Peter.
It really does not matter whether the information, analysis and assumptions in which you base your predictions are wrong, if the predictions themselves are right. Unfortunately Zeihan's predictions are also wrong.
in terms of Peter's argument of geography over ideology being or becoming destiny, specifically saying if you 'live in a Malarial swamp, you won't get very far' that was exactly the case with much of Italy around the middle ages pre Renaissance like most of Tuscany, then known as Maremma, it was a swampy area saturated with mosquitos and thousands died of Malaria - but people created rivers and drainage for the area which led to prosperity over just a few years or decades... ever since the area has of course been highly prosperous in contrast...
Italian here: Tuscany was not "known as Maremma". Maremma is the name that identifies an area in southern Tuscany, still today
Exactly. The question is why are people still hobbled by their geography generations after rockets began launching humans from earth? The rationale for Israel's exceptionalism in the region is weak. As if we're not living in an information age and members of the elite in other countries are not educated in western institutions as well. Why is South Africa descending into dysfunction and anarchy since the end of white rule when its geography is virtually identical to the US and they were handed modern infrastructure on a silver platter? It's either genes or culture not suited to the modern life created by western people or some combination of both. If geography had any impact it was through isolation affecting genetics and cultural development.
@@0db00 yes good point, still technically called Maremma
Zeihan is brilliant but his doomsaying is shallow and mostly baseless. I ordered a trinket from China the other day. It arrived, via ship, and there was nothing the Houthis could do about it. Also, reports about Europe's demise have been the cliche of every UK or US public intellectual for the past 30 years.
The truth is that Europe is still the place with the highest standards of living on the planet, and it still builds everything everyone wants to buy.
This couldn't have come at a better time. I just discovered peter. I know everyone complains that he gets a lot of things wrong, but his storytelling to connect dots in your head is top-notch. It's great seeing 2 people i respect have conversations like this 👏
That's the problem. He tells nice stories that might or might not have anything to do with reality.
So you’re telling me you like a good bullshit story whether it has any bearing on reality or not. That’s fine they can be found in the fiction section which is where Peter Z belongs.
I've been following him for a while but I'm still 50/50 on his credibility.
@@malehumanperson7901what has he gotten wrong? Just curious
@@cmanycrows8400So you're telling us he's said something that challenges a viewpoint that you can't tolerate being challenged.
Zeihan backs up EVERYTHING he says. I've yet to hear anyone challenge his viewpoints with anything remotely coherent.
Occam's Razor? If it's an easy argument to make, an investigation warrants. Not to the exclusion of the alternatives of course. I'd like to offer George Washington's Farewell Address. I'd also offer up the non aligned movement vis a vis Ukraine and Switzerland and Austria, etc.. Despots are fragile. Use that to advantage. It's possibly not good timing now, but maybe that's the best time to explore it. We have the resources.
It's really strange hearing someone with Bert Kreischer's voice saying smart things.
Sam Kreischer
Why did you post this comment? I can never unhear this
@@doctordaro2112 Share in my uncanny discomfort.
@@Packacone420 It's not Sam that has his voice.
Please consider running ads. You have always put out good content. If i paid for individual content i would be spending a ton of money. Would prefer to skip through some ads for the full content!
That introduction was grammatical finesse Mr Harris. I am a first time listener from Ukraine, and I have been an IDP from Donbas for 2 years now, so I applied for a free scholarship on your home page, once we achieve victory and I can go home, I will be in a better position with my finances. Cheers, I like what I am hearing so far!
CLIMATE CHANGE? Every topic but the most important issue of our time?
i agree but AI is bigger
This is the one podcast online that I have ZERO problem paying for. The annual fee for just the podcast is negligible and the value is immense. Sometimes the best things in life aren't free, and this is one of those times.
Thanks for being in my life, Sam! (Depressing as this particular podcast may have been. 😂 )
One podcast is enough. Get over your self. We don’t need podcasters interviewing podcasters or 99% of the podcasters that exist. Enough already with this new fake career as podcasters. I enjoy a good in depth interview as much as anyone but I respect someone a lot more who declines to make the rounds for profit.
In the age of drones Peter needs to analyze Navies differently. It is an enormous change and power shift away from traditional navies.
It's certainly a change, but not unlike the changes that gunpowder, steam engines, torpedoes, aircraft etc have necessitated.
It's not viable long term to spam off very expensive missiles at relatively cheap drones, so another way will have to be found, get busy with the laser and microwave testing I guess.
Funny, because the worlds foremost drone experts, who literally were able to hack and steal a US stealth drone, have been unleashing their best on *two* US destroyers for a week straight. They achieved a hard core zero damage, and zero successful strikes on surrounding civilian ships while they were present. Two destroyers, far enough apart they couldn't support each other, and hanging around in predictable patters for weeks, and they achieved zero damage out of literally hundreds of attempts.
If your drone is cheap enough to be massed, it doesn't have a weapon and can't target. If it can target it needs to be emitting signals that can be used to track and destroy it, and to carry a weapon that a warship cares about it needs to be big, heavy, and likely slow. Ukraine has only had success against Russian's navy because.... they are a bit brain dead, and by sneaking up on them. Good luck sneaking up on a warship in open waters, knowing it's in hostile territory and on alert, while emitting control signals that are boosted enough to work over 20+ km ranges.
Unless you're talking about high speed drones with passive sensors and self targeting that travel fast and low.... Oh wait, we call those cruise missiles, and are literally what ships are designed to deal with already. You also need to be tracking the ship *before* you launch, with a separate system, in order for the missile to be targeted correctly, because if it misses by just a few km it won't see the target. Before the US navy showed up the Houthi's launched nearly 200 anti-ship missiles, and achieved one hit, on civilian tanker and cargo ships sailing slowly in straight lines. The USN itself only has around a 20% success rate with over the horizon missiles: it is not at all easy to do, but you expect a lower speed drone that needs to lead even more accurately with shorter ranged sensors is going to do better? If that worked we'd already have lower speed cruise missiles designed to be cheap.
If you mean mass produced *large and expensive drones,* like the US replicator program.... well, no one except America can afford them at scale, so.... I guess it's a good thing we're ahead of the curve then.
@@jimb9063saw in news britts are developing laser system. I guess we'll seen soon-ish if any of those are any good.
Jeune ecolé was wrong then and also now
@@ASDeckard man, I'd like to have a conversation with you. One of Zeihan's main points is global shipping is no longer going to be secured by the US, and even the capability to do so is gone. And I keep having the same question come up: but what about naval drones, look what Ukraine has done vs. Russia... surely the innovation cycle is not complete with naval drones, there have to be emerging offensive and defensive capabilities for naval drones... I would like to know why you're so confident in your comment that naval drones are not a game changer.
Here's some facts you left out. Every NATO nation that borders Russia spends more then 2% GDP on defense. Those who do not are countries like Canada, Spain, Turkey, Italy, and Germany. Ukraine is losing the war because NATO didn't give them the support they needed in the first 3 months. Ukraine has to have a kill ratio of 8-1 in order to win a war of attrition. The US dollar will soon cease to be the international currency. Which will bring about an economic collapse if the budget is not balanced in 2 years.
Zeihan is the Deepak Chopra of the geopolitical experts
What does that even mean? If you mean both of them are flakes, I tend to agree. Although Ziehan is at least more grounded in realities.
I feel like he's right about certain things but like demographic changes effecting the economy but he underestimates the capacity of countries and supply chains to adapt very quickly.
For example. It is true that china is running out of working age people. but thats only the number of people, not the number of workers. Most people in China live outside the cities with the most factories (even with how dense they are). Those people can still be recruited to work in the big cities even after population decline.
Also, I think a lot of factories will probably just be automated, including the ones in China
@@dogsdomain8458 He also addressed automation many times before. Machines do not consume, and Europe and China are running out of a consumer class as well. Why else do you think China is suffering from deflation in a world where everything's getting more expensive?
There's a wood cut from the early 19th century depicting an Bald Eagle with outspread wings over a prosperous New England hamlet. A ribbon in its mouth reads "Everything prospers beneath my wings " It may have been an "ad" for the Constitution.
Getting into a convo just for it to end and fade out w over half of it left fucking SUCKS.
Nah. The glass is (almost) half full.
I love hearing from Peter Zeihan, but his blind spot on demographics is whether immigrant populations can truly assimilate. We in America have been fortunate, in that.our immigrants from Latin America are Christian and speak an indo European language, and can assimilate completely given enough time (much as, say, Italian immigrants assimilated over a period of a couple generations.)
The critical question for France, Germany and others is to what extent Muslims can assimilate into a post Christian society. We have 1,400 years of interaction between Muslim and Christian (or post Christian) worlds, and it has not been very encouraging. Remember, most Arab countries were once Christian.
I think Peter was better when paired with Ian Bremmer to have an equal keep his ass on the ground a little. And the conversation had a better dynamic. Still good though.
Listen to episode 288. Its the episode that made me listen to Making Sense regularly.
Regarding Zeihan's belief that Russia's desire to secure safe borders is the reason for their aggressive foreign policy, and the inevitability of a nuclear war, why doesn't NATO just invite Russia to become a member? Russia is so afraid of the threat NATO poses to their national security that they will invade, and continue to invade, neighboring countries. So why not remove the threat? This will provide security for Russia against Chinese and Indian threats as well as disarming the rest of Europe. Change the name to ETO (European Treaty Org) and declare that any attack on Russia is an attack against all of Europe. They could even re-establish favorable trade agreements provided Russia honors it's borders and respects it's neighbors. To me, this would completely demolish Zeihan's prediction that Russia will continue to be a bad actor as it takes away all of its incentives to do so. What's wrong with this idea?
Peter's interviews everywhere else: free.
How do people manage these paywalls? If I subscribed to all I was interested there'd be 150. But I may only be interested in one podcast. I'd end up functionally dropping 100s of dollars for something only 3% of the content is interesting.
Zeihan mentions that Israel success is not due to their ethnicity (Jew), but their skillset developed from abroad.
That’s a weird comment to make from Zeihan.
It’s seems to be his way of saying the Jews aren’t better than the Arabs or other Middle East ethnicities, only that they studied and benefitted from outside advanced nations.
Like saying Jews aren’t smarter than Arabs inherently but just by circumstance.
I think he is wrong about that. Jews are genetically and culturally superior to the Arabs by their track record throughout the world.
Honey, get in here! Sam Harris dropped a new podcast!
This guy doesn't make much sense to me. I'm cautious around RUclipsr 'experts' claiming to have expertise in various fields. He comments on the geopolitics of every corner of the world with so much confidence! Sam, you could bring a more informed guest.
The idea that there's widespread "fondness for dictators" on the right is exaggerated here, i think. Especially outsider of Trump. There's still a widespread, libertarian reflex on most of the right. I find it cringe, in fact. The idea that the same people that Sam and liberals/the left constantly criticize for being against almost any government action on things pike gun control, health-care, environmental policy, etc. are all of a sudden hard for authoritarianism, i find a bit goofy.
Very interesting interview, thank you. But: Ukraine is in Europe, dear people, always was. You confuse Europe with the European Union. Even part of Russia is in Europe!
I decline to be on the podcast too.
Sam stop being so delusional, everything you accuse Putin of doing, is what Democrats do to Trump supporters here in the states 🤷🏻♂️
The youngest Gen Xers (I would know) turn 45 this year, the oldest millennials turn 44 or 43 this year, depending on your definition. Let's not make us older than we already are.
Sam, why aren't you still antinatalist? How can you make sense of breeding more sentient beings, especially humans in an overpopulated world?
I also wish you didn't force a sub service.
No one can afford a thousand subscriptions for every single outlet available and to be honest, you're not unique enough to warrant monthly money.
That said if more of your podcast was available I likely would spend more time and thus garner more ad revenue. But pay walls in general are an insult in this day and age.
While mentioning useful idiots, you forgot to mention Elon Musk. He is one of the most dangerous people in this line, as a billionaire and one of the main social network owners.
Only commies think free speech is dangerous.