The End of the World Is Just the Beginning
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- Опубликовано: 25 июн 2024
- Peter Zeihan shared his insights at the 2023 Best Practices Forum, exploring systems in transition and their impact on businesses in the power sector. The forum is an annual gathering of transmission and distribution utility leaders, hosted by Burns & McDonnell. hubs.li/Q028vVwm0 #Utilities #EnergyTransition #SupplyChain
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Every few weeks I search RUclips for any videos uploaded within the past week or so featuring Peter, hoping I can find an updated keynote like this one. Thank you so much for posting the video.
Same here - and its lead to some excellent channels that would've otherwise been hard to find.
Man i saw a splice from some copy chan and knew it was new.
Finally followed that crazy tie here to the big kahuna(sp?)
He has his own channel
@@WellDressedCaveman his chan is alright. Bunch of short vids being a blowhard on a mountain... kinda rubs me the wrong way anyway
That show Yellowstone happened in the 80s to some families...
It's coming for the texas triangle now..
Land grabs and such... initiatives trying to get laws on the books so big business can't just take everything or indirectly tilt land owners toward a loss has the least reception in East texas...
They are banking on copperhead road style like some comanche Indians.
Even if they did listen the first kind of protecting the farmer and rancher they would do would be cheering for Warren buffets son, big ag and the meat packers... uniparty got to ag dept farm bureau forest service cattlemen association brand inspectors and national sheriff's association...
It's like sowells take on the Indians fighting eachother for access to the white man's guns.. we are gonna eat eachother for a dab of the elites money and grants.
The conferences aren't there on his channel though
Like this recent one on Oct 2 at burns and mcdonell best practices conference or something.
Winter is coming.
Love Peter but y’all ever watched any of his videos from 10 years ago? Dude been making the same predictions since then and, as of now, most haven’t happened ie everything in China is “going away” 😂😂
"Not everything makes it to the other side." Being part of the aging out population - it is amazing all the knowledge and experience which is exiting the work force. Our society neither values that knowledge or experience, nor does it have a means of capturing that knowledge and experience. Good luck.
"Our society neither values that knowledge or experience, nor does it have a means of capturing that knowledge and experience. " Your comment does strike at the irony of a society that is at the same time investing madly in getting computers to become knowledgeable and think for us. Perhaps this say a lot more about how we regard are fellow citizens, whose knowledge and views are worth less to us than those of machines that can't actually think yet at all. I wrote my first computer program on punched cards, and have stayed on the "bleeding edge" of much software change, but have yet to meet a computer that did anything without software written by a human. Admittedly, smart people are working on this, but it's highly questionable if the results will yield what many expect, unless of course one is more interested in online scams of an every increasing variety. One of the big problems with capitalism is that every idea that can be sold, shouldn't be sold, yet the system is sufficiently dysfunctional to prevent it.
Funny. I feel that society doesn't respect young people. There's a crisis of generational solidarity.
Basically, I feel that Boomers want to take everything they made into grave with them.
Good luck.
Yep. Right there with you. The younger generation moving into my industry is clueless but they don’t think so…
Not so sure about this. I am over retirement age, all my compatriots have retired and I am working with mostly 25 to 35 year olds (I am 69). They are so damned good. I am going to hate to leave them. The spirit is willing (I love the social atmosphere) but the flesh is weak and I want enough time to enjoy my grandchildren.
I value it, but it isn't taught effectively to the young. We live in an era where everyone's hiding what they know, playing a small scale sociopolitical game of poker without realizing that's all pointless... because they're on the Titanic. So no one misunderstands my intended meaning, that's a metaphor for civilization socioeconomically, not a metaphor for life itself.
I am old enough to remember that when it comes to predictions based on the current events, foresight always becomes a victim to hindsight.
yea the "Wild Card" is always a problem no one sees coming.
Yall old people seen this song & dance a few more times then the rest. I appreciate the comment b/c hindsights been replaced with propaganda or hubris.
China is done? 2020 showed we rely on them for most essentials, like masks.
Worked on drilling rigs since i was 18. Russia was drillin "impossible" wells 20 years ago. We taught em.
"You cant drill through mud" 😂😂
Any experts in other fields mentioned care to chime in on the accuracy of his statements?
In the early seventies the leading theory was an ice age was coming fast
The so-called "experts" are often flat-out wrong.
@@richardlawson6787 You are evidently listening to sources that have left you uninformed. While such "theories" (hypotheses actually) appeared in the popular press, they were never taken seriously by the bulk of the scientific community. There is actually a peer-reviewed research paper on the myth you are propagating, I would send it to you, but for the moment I can't remember where I placed the PDF or if I even saved it. It was written about 2-5 years ago as I recall.
Peter: "the internet of things shuld just die"
*projector freezes
Yes things r changing. Karma is coming first. U all talk about everything but what u owe the black race. U need to be talking about Reparatiins for black ppl. Things will not get better until we do better stop lying about what u have done to this country.
@gwenburge5583 This country needs to publicly acknowledge the blood of the lamb before every valley is lifted up and mountain laid low like that... the coming leader will take his evil throne before that. Our reward is great if we believe
@@chorgzent.3978 Really? You are going to run world economies on lamb's blood? Seriously?
reparations for blacks should start from Africa, and the Africans who sold the other tribes to the Europeans as slaves.
@@chorgzent.3978 facts
"The end of the world is just the beginning". Love this statement and it is so true. Another headline I saw that I loved is: "The wold isn't falling apart, it is falling into place".
The book is great!
The title seems about right, but the cause has largely been avoided in all the prognostication. The consequences of accelerating global was only barely touched upon when discussing Russian energy extraction. The much larger effects that are worldwide in scope don't seem to have entered into the equation, but that doesn't mean we are rapidly approaching lethal wet bulb temperatures and the loss of agriculture and fisheries that will take place over the next two to three decades. As a biologist, the talk, while entertaining and interesting, sounded much like the dinosaurs predicting continued global domination.
@@velvetfish1
This talk really doesn't do the book justice, but you are correct to an extent. This one was largely geared toward business and commerce. Peter doesn't indulge in doomerism even while he's predicting doom.
If it seems like more world domination it's because it's what we have and it is what we will apparently continue to have. I def dont see Peter as an eco warrior. He calls himself green. I'd put a cap P, for pragmatism in front of it. I like Nate Hagen and his guests collectively for deeper ecological aspects and possible solutions. Please check him out if you don't know of him! I try to spread the word about him.
@thomastessier I've heard that expression applied to one's life : " I thought my life was falling apart; I came to realize it was falling together. " HOPE (not blind optimism) seems almost as fundamental to a healthy life as oxygen
Alan Watts, speaking on “The Cycle of Life & The Meaning of Death" argues for the balance of acceptance & action.
"LIBERATION is the realization there is no way that things are 'supposed to be.' ... that it 'has to happen,' but...if you want to feel like there is some way you would like to arrange this... pushing these things around ... and put them in some kind of an order... that's okay too. ... you will be miserable to the degree that you are hung up on... 'things should/ must go a certain way'.... 'fixed view'... [ instead,] remain elastic! ... the lively empty mind.. can either let it alone or project patterns... and especially do both... at the same time... project... but realize ... human life never makes an aesthetic mistake ..."
The title is a bit click-baity, maybe unintentionally. It's what brought me here, so that's ok because there's a lot to think about here and it's better than the usual gloom and doom predictions.
21:50 As a progressive I’m no fan of Obama. He’s arrogant & overconfident - a soulless neoliberal. But Peter often tells this story about Obama announcing that he’s smarter than everyone in the room. Anyone believe this? No source cited, & it sounds ludicrous.
Not important RE: Obama, but one of several data points that remind me to take Peter’s views with a healthy dose of skepticism.
He is my 16th cousin and most of my family on his mothers side Ann Dunham whos white, hes only half evil, are actually mostly all genius level of 130 or 140 and up... so...
Obama is a construct of the D.N.C. picked off the street of Chicago.
That was the moment that I realized he is just an entertainer pandering to the biases of his audience.
Ya, feel the same. Also the bit about the inside of chinese politics regarding Xi. How would he know "no one brings him information"
You didn't calculate one thing... all the immigrants to usa... and the extreme amount of Chinese to USA is massive. Bidey administration is taking to themselves 20 to 35 yr olds of all demographics. 40 million.
America has plenty of labor if all of the profits are not funneled off and given to hedge funds. If the Middleclass get a larger share of the profits then we may also see a more enfranchised citizenry and lower amounts of substance abuse.
For now maybe but we are aging out a skilled labourforce
@@user-px4mp6lz3otoo bad Americans are so perseverative regarding the requirements of a college degree when it's clear we need trade schools and a loosening of the NAFTA grip
(Thanks, Clinton)
America has plenty of people on disability or who are retired.
The percentage of people in the labour force is historically low compared to the past, and it will continue going that way.
@@-whackd
Being retired ain't dead and the disabled need to do what they can instead of being dead weight entitled to nothing they haven't earned they can work and should be encouraged too. Not given a free ride and a check equal to a retired mother who spent her young life having & raising children entering the work force at 40ish or the waitress who to this day make $2.30 a hour to make someone else's day more tolerable.
Here's a sobering fact about capitalism..four percent of americans own 90 percent of all the wealth.
Fantastic info and clearly explained. Thank you for sharing
Thks Burns & McDonnell for sharing with the reqular/plain folks;
I wish the rest of corporates/businesses around the-world would learn to follow your lead ;)
PS: Great tie MrZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.
The more I listen the more amazed I am at Peter’s skill in spin and exaggeration to serve his narrative based on what his audience wants to hear. Great story, but his story, not history or the future!
@billsayer1,
But God...
🌏🙏🕛
That's how you sell books and get paid for appearances. Tell your target market what they want to hear.
@@joeyjojoshabadoo889 The problem humanity and its economies face is how to tell people what they don't want to hear but need to hear in order to save themselves from themselves. The reality is that accelerating global warming is something they need to be aware of and failing to believe it's happening or attempting to ignore it is highly counterproductive, both to them and everything humans hold dear.
He's full of unsupported sweeping statements delivered with the confidence of a maverick, and with a lot of built-in bias.
Thanks for saying!!! His interpretation of China was totally off-based.
What was said about the German mortgage system at 27:30 was simply not true. PZ needs fact checking on a lot of his statements I find.
What is the truth regarding the German mortgage system? I found his comments interesting but don't have German contacts to verify Peter Zeihan's comment about depositing the estimated mortgage payment for 5 years before qualifying for a home loan.
😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😮
.,, 😂
BSBSBSBS
This guys is simply entertainment. They could have just hired a comedian because this entertainer is just playing to an audience, telling stories with some color slides of "facts" and then stoking their biases and stroking their egos.
The Pony Tail tells you all you need to know.
Two things that just blow my mind: (1) When we 'buy' land, we own it and it gets passed down in perpetuity to our heirs. In China, the don't 'own' land, they are leasing it from a developer, who has leased lt from the government for 70 years. Therefore, every year, the land and the condo unit should be depreciating and not appreciating. (2) Over-production should have created a depreciation in price a decade ago. It hasn't until the beginning of this year.
I didn't know that. It makes sense
Agreed.
However, the land itself would only depreciate on the books of the developer & Land lessee. Regarding the land, I would imagine on Year 70 there is a bid in which Domestic developers compete for the lease which inflates the market value of the land due to the long-term duration and guarantee of the CCP.
2. It’s a scam economy that ultimately excels from western financial and domestic markets. In China there is high production with low volume of demand, so you can find sights such as; landfills with abandoned Electric vehicles fresh out of the factory and as mentioned in the video, ghost towns in areas less densely populated.
China has been the biggest scam for over a decade now.
@@QuonWill To be honest, nobody really knows what happened after the 70 years is up because no residential highrise has lasted that long before falling down or being knocked down. There's literally no plan on what happens afterward.
@@GeoScorpion Great Point and it is probable that the CCP will completely change their economic structure by the time or prior to land lease expiration.
Interesting cases to follow.
Is it really any different in America? 1.5% a year property tax means you buy your property over roughly the same time
One of the most exhaustive, yet concise presentations that I ever saw. Good work, guys!
Thank you
2:27 Who is this WEF shill?
@@tonyfaulknor8273who is this WEF conspiracy clown?
Surely, a most engaging presentation. However, without taking into account rapid climate change, the prognostications leave a lot unsaid and uncertain. Speaker is highly intelligent and is appealing to an audience that wants to know what may come next. Failing to discuss climate change, which is already starting to seriously affect demographics in a spatially inhomogeneous way really falls short and shortchanges his audience. Would like to see these incorporated into his presentation. It's not as if there isn't now abundant data to draw upon. There are now even entire scientific journals being published on the subject for obvious reasons.
@@velvetfish1
You're trying to fit your beliefs into his predictions.
Peter never fails to deliver excellent presentations!!
Except for the exceptions. If things were "completely purged"... how com Christie and Haley are on the debate stage? Here's one clue: Trump never got control of doj for so much as a month. Kind of hard to 'drain the swamp' when protexia lurks in the background, I think. Proof of concept? Look how quickly Biden got a return to business as usual.
Powerful, compelling, eminently plausible... but just how accurate in predicting outcome?
@@MichaelDembinski I suspect that will be inversely proportional to his exposure to npr?
Every time I finish a different program and am busy washing dishes or something where my hands are busy this video comes up and I'm stuck with it until I can get clear... I believe this is the 20th time YT has made me listen to it. And yes, I listened all the way through twice and even used clips ia a podcast I share with others. Wonder what I'm supposed to learn. 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
How to stop a video on RUclips with your pinky.
What happened to the 🤖 that was supposed to be taking everyone's job!!! He doesn't really make sense to me, so I think he has a political hack of some kind!🤔🤭
WOW - how many dishes do you have ? . . .
.*.*.*,
Hahaha. Same thing happens to me, except the video YT wants to constantly auto feed to me is The Fall of the Sumarians. I wonder if the two are related? The end of the first civilization and the end of the last civilization?
The talk was given on Tuesday Oct 3, 2023 according to the website.
Biden by a landslide yah right.....B S
Factually incorrect about the Australian property market. The Aus government guaranteed deposits (so there would not be a run on the banks), not mortgages- that would be ludicrous!
Nobody fact checks a comedian, and that's essentially what this guy is. An entertainer.
Big fan of Peter, but I think his greatest blindspot is his domestic political analysis. I'm not a Trump fan, but if there's one thing polling data has revealed throughout its entire history, it's that voters are idiosyncratic and don't fall neatly into interest groups moving around like chess pieces. This is why reliably predicting election results is so hard. The GOP underpeformance in 2022 is attributable almost entirely to Dobbs, but it's unclear to what extent that political energy has evaporated and Trump has taken a strong stance against hardline pro-lifers. To claim that he will only win 12 states when he's currently ahead in the polls is deeply shortsighted. Idk who will win in 2024 but I expect it will be a very weird race, and to pretend it will be so one-sided because "independents" (a group no one is able to get a good read on) have some universal aversion to one side or another is to make the same mistake all the pollsters made in 2016. No matter who wins, I predict it will be close and I doubt we will be able to interpret the results according to some mechanistic interest group realignment.
Trump needs to go away. Can’t happen soon enough in order to give a reasonable Republican a chance. Probably Haley. Trump is an awful choice. Narcissistic. Corrupt.
I agree completely.
Thats what makes it a such a great prediction. It is clear, and it has a definite timeline. I would argue it won't go down to Trump and Biden, but we'll see. RFK keeps trending up regardless of the media smear campaign. Haley getting money flow right now. Dean Phillips could be a smart Dem pivot. I agree with Peter, though. Few of my conservative friends and family like Trump anymore, and some never liked him at all. We will know soon enough.
Peter produces brilliant analysis but he has his political bias ...which is odd because its difficult to understand how someone can be so deeply analytical and yet prefer to see a Biden administration over a Republican led one.
Maybe not a Republican one, a Trump one. Trump a 3rd rail now. I see Peter as a Bush style Republican. Oil, foreign wars, debt, domestic peace.@@Andrew-ww7qq
he spills so many beans, but what are the sources? I can't help but suspect he just makes some (or most of) stuff up. Would love to see a critical review with sources..
You the man Peter! So glad we have someone like him on our side! Thx for the insight!
For a person that regularly comments on Xi Jinping, it's astounding that he still mispronounces his surname...
And I should care about the mispronounciation because why? Oh that's right...I couldn't care less.
Ok let me pronounce it right
DIOBOLICAL EVIL
Excellent content! I like Peter’s presentations on wold’s geo-economic-political presentations. The visual aids are great. Thank you for posting this video.
Too bad he exaggerates everything so his audience like what they hear so he gets hired to give expensive talks and sell bunk books that are totally exaggerated!
This is a great presentation of suppositions.
Absolutely a fantastic presentation. Watchin this at home on the big tv upstairs on a Saturday. Very glad to have found this... thanks for putting this up.
Wanna start a Corp. ?? Money 2 b made 😊
He is great entertainment but that’s all! Sadly he’s gone from a great analyst to a story teller to get paid a lot more!
I am amazed you're not talking more about robotics and AI which will change all your projections extremely significantly.
Yes, that's what I was waiting for as well.
Somehow the answer that there are not enough chips to roll out the high AI thinking into operational robots, we we as humans should be the ones doing what this system is saying. The question is how much more efficient and effective large scale stuff can be without the robot arms.
Because he's on the side of the Owners of the world who want us to believe we 'need' all of these illegal aliens encroaching on our country, our constitution, and our way of life.
The one argument he makes which is hard to dispute is the near inevitable collapse of the Chinese housing market and its devastating effect on household income and hence consumption levels. I think that's not the end of the Chinese story, but it is a horrible blow I wish they could avoid.
How this will affect the rest of the world is unclear. The US crisis became a global financial crisis
I keep hearing a lot of audiobooks.
But today i am amazed at this speech and the depth of knowledge this speaker has.
And the beginning of the world? The spark in our parents eye. Nothing’s changed.
How does he square the end of the green transition and the end of the Republican party? Who’s going to end it if not the republicans? The Democrats literally run on the green transition.
Seems somewhat interesting in some areas and very disconnected to reality in other areas. He didn't mention a thing about how these events have been carefully planned and orchestrated. How has he not heard about the multiple governments phasing out farmers' subsidies ... they'll be paid for turning farm land into wildlife areas. Or the debt from the open boarders and that even NY is busting at the seems with hotels housing them, while our citizens, and vets are left sleeping on the streets. Strange how the news is so restricted from one side to the other.
good one
thank you for making this public
Benefits of autocracy: population collapse and economic collapse - Democracy or Death seems like a pretty clear choice
No I think people will continue moving to the Emirates and Singapore for a stable business / corporate / investment and safety environment
It's amazing that Zeihan can discuss US and Mexican demographics at length, but seems unaware of the 8 million or so who have crossed the southern border into the US in the last 3 years.
Also the millions of under or unemployed in mid west USA ?
Very few of the climate migrants are Mexican. They come from tropical parts of South America for the most part, who are escaping the consequences of global warming, which is unraveling societies and which the GOP is determined to accelerate. A greater percentage on the migrants are coming from China, who are escaping autocracy in China. These are precisely the people we need to counter China's increasing hegemony around the globe as America's influence diminishes, locking us out of both markets and access to raw materials worldwide Ironically, the GOP policy is to deny these asylum seekers entry, thereby making China stronger. It's a shame that people can't see far ahead enough to recognize they are busy making things worse for themselves, not to mention nearly everyone else.
He has talked about it before and the fact that Trump's wall led to the building of roads which now make illegal immigration easier into the US.
@RawandCookedVegan
Puhleez. Roads that lead to a place in the border where there's no wall, because current occupant refuses to finish building it... and even removes fences that the states put up.
@@KevinB-pd3me Your emperor with no clothes didn't finish it and Mexico didn't pay for it. Wake up.
The workforce needed today compared with even 20 years ago is a fraction and shrinking due to the automation, robotics and AI. Productivity is skyrocketing, makes all previous models obsolete.
These talks are poetry. Annoys know, how to work with this guy? I would probably just love it. Apart of the pain coming from the foresight.
Boldly presented, well done, Bravo...
@31:04 "are you KIDDING ME?" Sublime.
@1:32:00 -- _"Trump will probably carry no more than twelve states..."_
That's a heckuva prediction, Peter! LOL! I guess we'll find out in good time. ;-)
Hmmm... I don't agree with Peter on that one.
He is a hell of an analyst 🎉
Zeihan is a live action role player of the Deep State variety. Still, it’s fun to pull up a chair and grab a bowl of popcorn whilst listening in.
He is an excellent analyst, but he still has some huge blindspots like anyone else.
He’s definitely interesting. I’m starting to get impression that his real expertise is in making a good living as a semi-delusional prophet.
People who call him a great analyst - deluded people who don't require any accountability. Typically poor nothing news jockeys addicted to current events rather than investors.
This guy make future calls on commodities and macro outlooks of countries all the time, yet he doesn't publicly invest or call anything. His audience doesn't demand it because they're stupid.
He could be 100x worse at predictions than Jim Kramer but none of you even know or care. Nobody even asks him to make public bets.
@@Tiasung The effects of accelerating global warming is one of them. Loss of fisheries and agriculture are already a major problem and having cascading effects on economies and people worldwide.
Wow. Really glad this showed up in my algo. Great presentation. Thorough and really gets the thoughts projecting. Excellent
Nothing but panic porn...Rush Limbaugh had a great saying..."Every Generation is absolutely convinced that the world is going to end on their watch"
Damn you could get hit in the face with a board and say the board never existed.
panic porn in what sense.... all he argues is that societies are aging out of consumption based growth and that for most of them, this is going to lead to economic stagnation. the US will be fine...
@@persperspersp2866 I sure do hope you are correct. The whole system is based on debt. The actual value of collateral is halving (look at commercial real estate), once Yellen stops doing her stealth liquidity (failed Treasury auctions so its not gonna be her choice), there will be a liquidity issue, and credit levels for everyone are at all time highs, wages haven't kept up with price increases for 40 years. Not to mention the dumpster fire that is American politics, and the widening of class inequity. what could go wrong? My personal opinion is that we are witnessing the fall of a great empire. It's just a slow burn.
He forgot about RTP (Raleigh Triangle) for the south, cheap land lots of youth and lots of educated people with infrastructure + capital
I had to search for this. The algorithm didn't give it to me. This is unsettling.
I love this guy
Great! Thanks.
"With globalization, you can leave the farm and work in the city."
Only because the private enclosure of land and capital flows into cities have destroyed nature to the point where urban living seems preferable. It's not like rural life is naturally or inherently undesirable. Urbanization was not a free choice.
What do you mean capital flowing into cities destroys nature? If I am a rural Indian farmer thinking about giving up farming for a manufacturing job in the city, how are capital inflows to a city "destroying nature" in my village?
No it doesn't, 90% of uninhabited land in America is the exact same healthy nature that has existed for 1000s of yrs. I've never even heard of someone being forced to move to the city because nature in the American countryside has become toxic.
Are there any experts that disagree with the outlook of China shown in this presentation?
This reminds me of Harry Dent's demographic forecasts back in the 70's. He was very accurate.
Thanks Burns&Mac for putting this on. As typical Peter, some good, some BS. (At 1:04:00) Was funny Peter 'splaining to a room full of Power Engineers that:
1. Copper is some critical future shortage -- because Peter does not know the Grid runs on Aluminum.
2. Cobalt from Congo is some problem -- because Peter does not know that EVs are moving onto LiFePO4 (no Cobalt) while the bigger Cobalt users are Steel (as in ICEs) and Oil Refinery.
3. Copper -- Same on Solar PV -- conductors are Aluminum.
4. "Rare Earths" are somehow critical -- when if you are using Silicon Solar PV and AC Drive Motors -- none are required.
But what Peter often lacks in competence, he always more than makes up for with "confidence." Always entertaining. Thanks again.
I love that Burns & Mac has such interesting forums. Bravo! ♥️💛♥️
" The only immutable law of economics is that supply will always rise to meet demand." MF The lead time for power transformers in the US is already down to 18-20 weeks.
One thing/truth l have learned in 80 years is ‘we cannot see around corners’ neither can scientists.
The trajectory is fascinating, but the dilemma is that a cataclysmic world war will destroy every path.
A lot of very insightful info and new ways of seeing things,
and a lot of info that (for now) seems unlikely or inaccurate. I'll continue researching his underlying reasoning.
It's always good to get differing opinions on complex matters. Most appreciated.
I agree. I’ll take the info as a unique perspective but def question much of his interpretation.
Aged to 70+ I witnessed many times: Predictions have been wrong all the time.
Example Europe: People in working much longer as work gets easier.
Merry Christmas
After reading the comments I decided not to waste time watching
Zeihan's demographics are enlightening. His politics are shortsighted and biased.
I'm not looking to be argumentative, but can you explain your statement?
@@geoffreylacher8891His ego and clearly left bias throws a growing shadow over the facts he presents. ESG, for example, being picked up by different companies and handled differently? No, ESG has been forced on companies by the FederalReserve, tied to monetary credit. The vast majority of employees find these ESG requirements a waste of time and cut into profit. Very few people actually give a shit about such made up victimization. As for Biden winning by a landslide ... ridiculous. Like him or not, drive across America and you will see Trump signs and flags by the thousands. He fills stadiums with supporters. When Biden shows up to an event, no one even wants to talk to him.
Shortsighted and biased how? Explain!
Every time he makes a crack about Trump, I understand the man bun.
But I bet that you lapped up his ridiculous story about Obama without any question.
Do you seriously believe that Obama told his generals "I am the smartest man in this room and I can do any of your jobs?"
His criticism about EV technology ignores the fact that although there is an initial outlay in production that IS higher, the long-term requirements in a material sense for fossil fuel vehicles is substantially higher
I'm always Leary of Futurist like Peter, the man bun doesn't bolster my confidence. Having watched over 10 of his presentation, I can see how his talks will lead his clients to make missteps and invest & build his predictions. Take the mic from him and give it to Prof Victor Hanson or Thomas Sowell. All his points where expounded in a book over 30 yrs ago The Great Reckoning aka The Sovereign Individual by James Dale Davidson , Lord William Rees-Mogg
I miss a two thumbs-up option here... because one thumbs-up is not enough. Excellent!
Very interesting speaker. Very general comments. It will be interesting to see how many of the speculations come true. Some are very far off in time. We can revisit this a year from now after the 2024 US election and see if his prediction that Biden will win in a landslide and Trump will win maybe 12 states. What do you think?
How can a person who wears a diaper win
T. will only win at a total new angle, from all that he saw and learned from being MR. PRESIDENT, of the past. he is someone who believes in this great nation as well as country of people whom love its country. everyone hang on, for its going to become the worse roller coaster ride you've experienced.
There comes a time, a hugely growing number of people will realize that when they cut off their internet in every possible way, they will be free.
Thank you so much for realizing that I am not actually an adult, and that my childlike sensibilities are so much at risk of damage from Mr. Ziehan's potty mouth.
We've also never had so many jobs that are work at home, enjoyable and doable by people up to age 80 so that capital isnt necessarily retired.
If only fabrication could be done at home by 80-year-olds, or maybe hire retirees to teach kids in juvenile detention how to machine-tool things.
Capital doesn't retire dude. Labour does.
46:15. Zeihan alludes to us auto manufacturers sending partially built car from one factory to another, in different cities for different parts of manufacturing. Ahhhj…..No. of course all parts brought in and assembly line setup puts it together. BOEING has fuselages built in Kansas and they DO go on train cars, right past Billings Montana for aircraft assembly in Renton Wa.
The retraced prospective is the best thing to do
Doesn’t this high cost of capital idea leave out the fact that a record amount of wealth is in the hands of few and will largely stay there? Wealthy don’t spend near the same % of wealth and then pass it down to their 2 kids.
Zeihan needs to reevaluate the Chinese Navy. It has more long-range refueling capacity than Japan and is approaching the capacity of the UK. Yes most of the fleet is small, but it's evolving and will be a formidable challenge. The Japanese Navy is not really a blue water navy without the US logistics support. China is operating in the Indian ocean and has proven it can operate in the deep Pacific.
Now can the Chinese economy support such a navy...
I am not convinced that China properly drills in adverse conditions, night/storms/degraded systems. They seem to be more worried about looking good than actually being good. Being good means failing in training exercises. Failing in training is desirable in militaries like the US if there are lessons learned but in corrupt and autocratic nations, training exercises are how they measure effective leadership, so exercises are skewed for rapid victory.
When one side has 2 modern aircraft carriers the other side will shortly have a former navy.
He's just coasting these days, presenting 10 year old ideas and data.
The description of german credit rules is complete non-sense. Not sure where he would get this from, if it is not made up. Quite opposite to that, for the most time (in that timeframe) we had up to 115% credits, so the bank was financing the house and the attached buying costs. Banks would give credit to anyone not running away fast enough. Really has nothing to do with the states using credit.
Peter is fun to watch, but you really have to wonder, what else is just made up for the fun of it.
That's one reason the unemployment rate seems so low is because millions of workers are leaving the workforce(retiring) and are not counted as unemployed.
To overthrow the one percent… we must quit feeding into their pockets. All stop work for awhile. Love to see what they would do. ??!!😂
A Zeiban lecture is worth a semester's course at an Ivy league business school.
I would say more like a night at the Laugh Factory.
I love listening to Peter's certainty. It's a good fine performance as well as a reasonable stab in the dark as to the way the world goes.
I have not seen this man previously and hope to never again. Of course, USA is the greatest country with the greatest people. Listen to him denigrate every other country of the world. Propaganda and lies all the way through
What he may like in Competence, he always tries to cover with "Confidence." Always amusing.
Pure performance. They may as well have hired a stand up comic or a juggler and gotten as much facts out of it.
Great presentation, but Peter tells a lot of stories that he doesn't have evidence for. We should always be skeptical of absolutism, and that's what this guy pitches.
He is Also on Globe Watch!
When was this recorded ?
Well that'll keep you up till midnight on New Year's Eve. Other than skating on the knife edge of Armageddon I find Peter's prophetic work to be chillingly spot on. We have reached a catalytic inflection point that will not resolve until it plays out. One factor that I think Peter is not adjusting for properly is technological disruption - that is out of his wheelhouse. His example of textiles is a good one. If we can automate a 100 Bangladeshi worker factory into a two worker automated facility in North Carolina - we will see that trend mature in the reshoring of manufacturing and the labor shortage will be far less inflationary than expected. I would expect manufacturing to become far more localized with simplified production chains. If we can keep our fingers off the red button it could be transformational for humanity.
100%. Look at Tesla with 48v powered control circuitry, massively reduced the cabling and therefore copper use. The world will not run out of copper
Who's we? I don't have a button. Maybe we should take the buttons away from the people who have them?
Biden’s gonna win 2024??! 😬🤔
You write well. Perhaps you should do much more of it. Phrases like "catalytic inflection point" ring in my ears like music.
He needs a better tailor. Unless it’s on purpose then it’s genius
It's the brand, lol
It's part of his comedy shtick. Peter is always fishing for laughs.
He's a Colorado Republican hippie that does half his vids on mountain peaks because he presumably loves hiking and doesn't get a helicopter ride to the locations. I think he is dressed as who he is and LOVES when people like you say nay. lol!
Just discovered and love your videos. I have a question though. The comment about are enough ghost empty homes in China is enough for 3.5 billion people? That is more than twice the current population of China. Is that an accurate number?
But what about humanoid robots filling the labour gaps?
Uhh, trucks aren,t going away. Everything you have in your house from toothpaste, bedware, beds, couches, steaks ,eggs everything comes from trucks. Everything!
Sure, but logistics will be automated. Automated trucking, automated warehouses, even automated last mile delivery (for much cheaper).
It is just so annoying that we are not thinking about having more children and lowering screen time, getting out in nature and making it so families can spend more time together. It is almost like some people really want a catastrophe. People are beginning to create family farms again, repairing our local food supply chains and having more children. However we can just give up on the American dream for our children. Why would we do that?
Them Preppers be feeling all smug whilst watching this.
Is Peter Zeihan in a think tank so he can bounce ideas of his peers or is he totally independent?
Stupid people listen to Peter frequently make calls on commodities and they don't hold him accountable, nor does he ever publicly invest based on the stuff he says. It's all a game to him and his audience doesn't even care if he's right.
He could have a record like Jim Kramer but none of his audience cares. They watch him as a form of therapy when they are geopolitics addicted.
My understanding is that he has a whole team that does research and they collate the information together.
He left the think tank and has been rehashing the same old ideas about transport routes and demographic shifts for the past 10 years. Nothing new.
How does the the expected AI boom over the next few decades affect the population and consumption declines?
AI does consume but humans do.
few will be allowed to bare children. remember china?
Interesting talk. Seems a bit biased in a few areas.
Plus, solar panels are about generating from the sun, not heat.
Another p.s. is that necessity is the mother of invention, SO, inventing more energy efficient equipment rather than digging up more raw ingredients from the earth, seems to be in order. And, how about retooling and recycling more waste products from production?
1:19:50 🌟TAIWAN QUESTION🌟
😃❕🌟GOOD QUESTION❕🌟
Assuming, that there was no climate crisis coming up, Peter is perfectly right. Given, that there is a global climate and overshoot crisis staring at us, all of this will be overtaken by reality in 15 years at most. Looking forward to accepting Peter in the community of coming global collapse once he picks up. His analysis will be very welcome then.
15 years is optimistic.
Climate Crisis is not 'coming.'
It has already arrived.
@@tacopie310and its compounding exponentially
There is no climate crisis, but there are liars.
@@user-px4mp6lz3oOh really? How much did global climate warm between the year 2000 and now?
How much do you believe (in degrees Celsius) global climate will increase "in the next 15 years"?
He's got to get that thing growing off the back of his head seen by a specialist.
Not worry about China? What about the 24000 single males crossing our southern boarder a month.
Learn how to assemble chips and do it in spanish. Language learning and chip manufacturing are two of my favorite things. I will see how close I can get to that goal in the next 3 years Zeihan.
China has been about to collaspe for 20 years.
Same for Russia.
Both are uncomfortably still around and functioning.
I think the only thing that is collasping is Western Academia's ability to analyze foriegn competitors.
How much does Peter make for 2 hour engagement like this (w/Q&A)?
He earns a lot. Keep in mind that in order to earn that he’s spent decades collecting, interpreting and learning to communicate it clearly and concisely. He probably didn’t make the same hourly rate doing that.
In 2018, it was $22,000 per hour. It’s probably gone up now that he has a lot of cia money
@@MichaelDeMersLA CIA money? You have any proof?
@@GowthamNatarajanAIit's well known he briefs CIA
@@GowthamNatarajanAIhe references it in his books
Your QR code doesn’t work if you’re on a iPad and try to retrieve it from you iPhone. I’m really bummed
Regarding Chat GPT- "with Chat GPT, 'all' we need are the chips".. . Agree with him, insofar as that single statement goes (except that there will be a chip shortage for the next 2-3 years before the factories catch up). The main problems with AI are that we will require massive GPU running and massive grid power to serve it- "The revolution in artificial intelligence may soon require more electricity than all electric vehicles combined" [source: WSJ, 12/15/23]
And our grid already can not keep up.
I'm sceptical of predictions that do not see the world as one in this day and age. Us and them analysis is what will doom us all.