What is Positive EV Sports Betting Strategy? Making Money Explained
HTML-код
- Опубликовано: 1 авг 2024
- Learn how positive expected value sports betting strategy works in this video. Useful links are shared below...
The Betting Strategy That Got Me Banned: • The Betting Strategy T...
OddsMonkey (UK) - bit.ly/3r55vkb
OddsJam - bit.ly/3Em7oje
EV Calculator - www.bettingpros.com/expected-...
00:24 What is a positive EV betting strategy?
00:51 How to calculate EV in sports betting
02:46 Making money with expected values in sports betting
03:18 Example of plus EV betting strategy compared
04:57 Why arbitrage betting isn't as effective
05:25 The advantages of positive EV betting strategy
06:36 How to enhance profits and reduce risk
07:02 Where can you find plus EV bets?
07:51 Option 1
08:26 Option 2
This video is for informational purposes only explaining positive expected value betting strategy. Past results do not guarantee future outcomes, always do your own due diligence and behave responsibly. Some links within this description are affiliate links. If you click on one of them, I may receive a small commission. Thanks for watching.
-------------------------------
For more sports betting tips, subscribe to Caan Berry Pro Trader: / caanberry 
Спорт
Here's a positive EV betting strategy in action: ruclips.net/video/_qofMbvaoIY/видео.html
I just wished they add in a law to not be able to ban winners
They could add a law where they have to take a max bet of £10 from ev players , I've been restricted to 84p ew & cannot even do a 10p lucky 15 , so for all intents & purposes my acc is fcked wi bet 365 😂😂😂
Australian racing punters are the luckiest in this regard, in every state there is something called “MBLS” on a state by state basis with the exception of the NT
You can add me to that list too!!
@@CaanBerryProTrader your top of list 💯💥💥💥
@@user-le8ll3kh8cI'm about there with skybet at the minute, can't put each way lucky 15 on, win only . Bet 365 fully nuked my account and told me their traders didn't want my business.😢😢spineless wankers.
You're a good guy! Love your videos! Yes, positive EV betting is a great way to get an edge on sportsbooks. So many newbie sports bettors don't even realize just how easy it is to find positive EV betting opportunities on sportsbooks.
Also, shopping for the best prices when betting on sports is a good practice too. That 10 points on odds can really add up over time.
Você caiu do céu foi um achado de ouro. Feliz por ter encontrado o teu canal aqui do Brasil. Maratonado teus vídeos. São excelentes.
I've been using your betFred "goals galore bonus" scheme....
First four bets all won, banking me 1600 quid for 210 quid staked...
Since then eight further bets, all of 50 quid have failed....
But five were by only one of the eight teams failing to score...
I know if I keep doing the schoolwork I'll profit in the long run...
I have been working on a ev tool that finds and tracks bets. I find bets between 0.1% ev and 20% on wide outsiders. What range would you say is a good place to sit or would you bet on all just with various bet amounts based on bank roll and the ev % which is what I have been doing. Is there a rule you follow?
Do you have a video on how not to get limited so quick? For arbing ALSO which bookies still have half decent limits after being limited? thank you
Hi Caan, forgive me for being a pillock - I have noticed the betfair exchange has 10% longer odds than virtually all british books on football. How greater do the odds have to be to make it make sense? Cheers.
Hello please does anyone know if I can use Poisson Distribution to calculate for EV betting?
So what if winning implied odds are less then the ev play odds jam is recommending.For instances using nba props player x has to get 12.5 pts the wager is +110 thats around, 55% you cross reference his stats on cash props his season and trends are showing that his hit percentage is 42% wouldnt that be a negative bet? Or like you said you weigh the over/under to see if its a ev play? .
Hi I'm a football fan and I generally break even or make a small profit over the course of a season. I'm trying to improve my profit margins and a lot of what you say makes sense. I like your videos but can you explain your motivation behind sharing your strategies?
So I seen odds on over 2.5 goals at 2.50 and under 2.5 goals at 1.50 So is the over 2.5 goals at 2.50 a positive EV ?
If you have a 30% probability of win or less do you still bet on it if it’s EV value is over 5%
Essentially we don’t need the calculators just find Bets At higher odds then the exchange?
Great video…. The greyhounds didn’t work out for me after 300+ bets but Oddsjam have more than made up for it!
I did analysis on the greyhounds. Over a week I noted prices that were at least double and up to TREBLE the bookies price on Betfair Exchange at sp. Still made a loss.
@@johnristheanswer I did the greyhounds over a 3 week period. Here is my results and I do still believe it would have worked out if I had the patience....
379 bets places
75 winners
304 losers
Net loss = £88.30
The mental impact of being on a losing streak from day 3 until day 16 and then from day 18 until the last day (21) were too much mental pressure too take personally.
I definitely think it works but I need to understand that the sample size has to be done over a larger scale for it to show its true working.
PS I hope Caan reads this as its nothing against him as I like him and his content!
One thing like arbitrage can we do positive ev count by different platforms too or it must be on one platform?
The amount of restrictions recently have been mad when making £££
Happens to us all, grab what you can and run!
How do you know the win probability? The 27.4%.
Any tips on how to find +EV bets? I'm just getting started and I want to put into practice all this before I pay a subscription service. I'm currently manually comparing sportsbooks odds to betting exchanges to find misprices, but it takes a lot of time to find mispricings. Please any tips would help!
Surebet website
Is this just another way of calculating the over-round?
The thing I don’t understand is the win probability, if you are betting on over/under 2.5 goals surely it isn’t a 50/50 it depends on who’s playing?
if the results can only be 2 then it should be 50/50.. it will happend or not .. at least its my understanding .
How do you find the probability
I’m new to this and trying to learn. But the thing I don’t understand is for example if the bet is under/ over goals. Example u/o 5,5 goals. Is it rly 50% chance?
Like if I exaggerate a bit, say it’s u/o 20 goal in a match. It’s way more likely for it to be under 20 goals,
What betting exchange is available in Africa?
Hi Caan, can i ask you something please?
Am i able to place a single bet on the Sportbook over/under goals 2.5
and then also place a single bet on the Exchange over/under goals 2.5
... for the same football match?
if so, and betfair allows that, then theres lots to discover here :)
Yes that's possible but the sportsbook odds will be a lot worse than exchange on the alternate line and you need to consider commission.
@@CaanBerryProTrader hi, thanks for your reply. So ive run a test, welcome to have a look:
Exchange Back £2 under 2.5 Goals @ 2.52 odds = £3.04 win, -2 loss
Sportsbook Back £2 over 2.5 Goals @ 1.5 odds = £3 win, -2 loss
*Btw I could have greened both by 20mins with no score
Score / Predicted profit
0 = 3.04 -2 = 1.04
1 = 3.04 -2 = 1.04
2 = 3.04 -2 = 1.04
3 = -2 3 = 1
... but maybe thats betting £4 and only getting £1 back?, lets see.
Score was 2 goals so I quit and greened Exchange for -0.58
And greened Sportsbook for £1.23 each way
Result:
Exchange: -0.50 (of the 2 bet)
Sportsbook:
Stake: £2.00
Cashed Out: £1.23
Total Returns: £2.34
So 2.34 -0.50
Total = 1.84 - - - which i think added to my bank
Ill run this again and see :)
Exchange Back £2 under 2.5 Goals @ 2.46 odds = £2.92 win, -2 loss
Sportsbook Back £2 over 2.5 Goals @ 1.57 odds = £3.14 win, -2 loss
Score:
0 = 2.94 -2 = 0.94
1 = 2.94 -2 = 0.94
2 = 2.94 -2 = 0.94
3 = -2 3.14 = 1.14
score 2 green for 0.03 1.13 = 1.16 @ 69mins... so greened
Bank was 4.55
Result now is 3.71... hmmm?
Ah i doesnt green on sportsbook, just divides the bet between the two
Score 2 green for 0.03 and 1.13 = 1.16 -2 = -0.84 @ 69mins shit!!! lol
The first example won because scored 3 or more
How to get the app
How did u come up with the probability to be 27.4 in the draw example?
The combined probability of the alternate outcomes.
@@CaanBerryProTrader can u show me math
I appreciate you man thank you
No problem. Thanks!
I still dont get where you got the win probability from
The win probability percentage is wrong?
I need more examples on calculating the win probability
Any tips fo maintaining edge on exchanges? Is it even possible xD
So over/Under 2.5
When ever a odds is over 2 its +ev?
No, that was an example in the video. When it's above it's fair odds it's +EV. At 2.0 a bets chance is 50%. If the true chance is 50% and odds are above 2.0 then this is +EV.
Is this the same as what they call value betting?
Yes because if you get positive ev that is value
How did you get 27.4%
I have been a successful arbitrage player for over a year but I will have to switch to value betting since I got restricted by arbitrage betting. I’m unsure about one thing though, let’s take the example of the 3.00 and 1.8 odds. Of course these are profitable odds but I don’t understand how we know that 3.00 is the profitable of the 2. Now this might sound dumb because the odd is just higher, but when both teams are very defensive for example the 1.8 odd would win many more times no? With arbitraging it wouldn’t matter which of the 2 odds you choose because you cover all but I do not understand how to pick the wrongly priced odd….
There seems to be one big issue with all this: bookmakers will immediately ban you (or severely limit you) from gambling with them again once they find out you understand value. You don't even have to make huge amounts of bets. In fact, one bet sometimes will already put you in their 'problem bettor' category. There are a few bookies that will allow you to win in the long run, but these places, mostly exchanges (betfair, betdaq, etc.) rather than regular bookies, are full of people that understand shit, so your competing against other pro's (and even companies), lowering your chances of making a living out of it. Personally, I know if they let me play against them, they are bound to be screwed, but they don't let me! It's an unfair game played by greedy companies that take advantage of dumb and vulnerable people.
What's your experience?
All very fair, sad how it's got.
Why have you chosen to use 50% as the win probability of the over/under 2.5 goals?
Because the probability of a 50-50 chance, EVS in fractions or 2.0 in decimals is equal to 50%.
Yes but then you say to take the price if its 3.0 disregarding the fact that if it were 3.0 you'd actually give it a 33.3% probability. I trade markets and I've watched your video several times but I can't see how your logic isn't circular, perhaps there is some miscommunication
@@brendan904 If the chance of it it happening is 50%, anything above 2.0 is value, anything below is not. So 3.0 is +EV, 1.8 is -EV.
Brendan if the probability is actually 50% ie. 2.0 but you manage to get 3.0 for that selection elsewhere then that's value because 'the real' probability is still 50%, what part don't you understand???
I don’t get how u get the probability of it happening, like if it was Man U vs Man City, how do you know the probability?
well that's the game I guess. something like football will need models which require expertise. some sports might not need models in the same way
You can try the opposite in order to minimize the short term losses, bet on big efficient leagues
Does this also work with brokers?
Been making money sports betting for 3 months now, however my accounts are beginning to get restricted/banned. Any tips on how to prevent this?
Inbox
arbing you're money to other accounts so you look like a loser
how is your name on instagram?
Most bookies have similar odds , they most likely work together. Yeah , once every blue moon you can find some kind of mismatch, but it's very rare.
It's absolutely pointless trying to beat the bookmaker. You WILL get banned or restricted if you are getting value regardless if you win or not. Fact. Exchanges are the only way to reduce the chance of being restricted
I hear your pain, bookies are a bit of a nightmare at the moment. You can beat them but it becomes hard work consistently at any kind of decent level. Exchanges are the way, although there's premium charges there too.
Caan,love you exposing the cartel bookmakers but caan don't like the bet365 advert, how this?
No bet365 ad here mate! I think they wouldn't lke people telling others how to get +EV either to be fair, like an anti-advert kinda thing lol
I'll stick with both teams to score for now🔥
But if you're getting your probabilities from the pricing of the market, it can't by definition give you a positive expected value. In your example you take a market priced at evens and take it that it's a 50% probability and then say if it's 3.0 that's a positive EV, but if it was at 3.0 you'd actually recalculate your probabilities and pitch it at 33.3%, it seems that what is being suggested is where there is a negative overround
I also noticed on third viewing that in your example overs is 3 and unders in 1.8, in actual fact if this happened you'd be insane not to bet on both outcomes, unders would be 1.5 if overs is 3s
@brendan904 If the chance of it it happening is 50%, anything above 2.0 is value, anything below is not. So 3.0 is +EV, 1.8 is -EV. Your 33.3% you quote would be the price paid, not the actual chance of it happening. 3.0 is a big price for a 50% chance.
If the chance of it it happening is 50%,1.8 would be a -EV bet (a bad bet) wouldn't advise backing it.
@@CaanBerryProTrader No I totally get that but my confusion arises from the fact that you seem to derive the probability from the odds in the first place, so you've said it's a 50% chance because it's evens
@@CaanBerryProTrader wouldn't advise backing it as a stand-alone but if you had one side of a market at 3s and the other at 1.8, always take both as that's well under 100% book
Im looking at doing this mans pre race trading course. Anyone done it, with some feedback and/or decent results?
Thanks
I've recently started it and in my opinion from what ive seen so far is what he shows would take along time to learn your self, it's not the answer but a great fundamental base to build on your self. Caan is a genuine bloke who's done it and I for one am thankful he's released the video pack
sure, pinnacle and lasbet
Sharp books.
steam chasing at its best, making around 8 percent ROI each month over 200 games@@CaanBerryProTrader
But it takes your 2% on betfair
Caan the exposing the bookies videos get more views 😉
They get more legal letters too :)
@@CaanBerryProTrader didn't realise Paras were afraid of letters (mostly bc they can't read) 😉 any chance you can RT me if I tweet you?
Haha far from it, although it gets more expensive. Ye of course :)
Mate sorry for spamming this on your videos but you need to do a video on this to highlight this to people i dont want more people getting scammed.
On william hill they have a lot of double odds offers for exsmple kane to score bayern to win by 2 was 7/4 now 7/2 but if you put these in the bet builder yourself its generally closer to the 7/2 than the supposed 7/4.
This tactic is used across all sports the starting prices are lnowhere bear as low as the grnuine price is its a con.
Whats made me make this post is todays offer paul nichols to have a winner at Cheltenham today max bet a fivet 5/4 doubked to 5/2 so i stupidly had the fiver before looking at the cards and he had 2 runners a 5/1 and a 28/1 shot so obviously a terrible offer.
Then the 28/1 is announced as a non runner and their still advertising the bet and taking people's money for half the price the horse is running at.
Disgusting
Why do sports books care if you arbitrage? Don't they take a rake or commission anyway? People are going to bet on side a and side b anyway who cares if it's you
Still confused
so basically you need some payed tool to detect EV betting opportunities....
Are you saying positive EV bets are better than free money by arbitrage ?
U dnt know wat ur on abt 😂😂
If you’re in australia do not use oddsjam it only covers 6 bookies and 5 sports leagues (afl nrl, mlb nfl nba). Bonusbank covers 70+ bookies and is half the price.
That " odds discrepancy " would last less than 1 second.
Nope, although they do monitor these things too (not very well)
@@CaanBerryProTrader I meant the example Caan. Not real world prices.
Any one can do it just get past the fried brain i have no idea what he does guess thats why i am the ideal punter guess my bro being big on the bookies makes me turn away from it i barely understand each way
Would advise watching the numbers segment again and jotting down some examples you can find. I find examples are the best way to learn.
Coral banned me after 1 bet lol ( a low quality market)
...it's really frustrating when they do that! Still, if they don't ban you eventually you're just losing money to them.
Theyd never give 3 odds amd 1.8 😂 thats 4.8 total over under 2.5 is always under 4
It's a theoretical example to explain, the video says this.
@@CaanBerryProTrader I always get the feeling you always leave something out in your videos. I think most casuals wouldn't understand your content. Nevertheless I doubled my bankroll with one of your single bets strategy so thank you.
You seem to have no idea what you’re talking about, just copy paste like all the other yt videos. With arbitrage you can bet all you own, with positive ev betting you can bet max 5% of your bankroll with a 50% chance of winning. Now do the math
You did a video told us that bet 365 is fraud and will got you banned for 1 year before ! 😂
No, I said they will limit and restrict your account for winning. They don't play fair, it doesnt mean some people can't use them until that happens - or, potentially, you could find a way of getting bets with another.
Is a nice betting strategy but bookers doesn’t favor we Africans