🏆 🏆 For those who do want to learn the trade and make money betting yourselves (like a pro trader) using positive EV betting, then you can check out my 5 - part sports betting course over on my website at: Australia/NZ: shanehuang.com.au/course/ USA/Canada: arbitragecamp.com/usa-course/
"Speculation" will always yield more than "arbitrage" but the key difference is you cannot fully compound via positive EV or any sort of betting/trading with probabilities as there's always risk, no matter how small... hence you cannot go all in and efficiently compound all your capital. Unlike risk free arbitrage
FACTSSSSS it is unfair to use the same bet amount in an EV bet vs a risk free ARB. You can put up as much as you like in an ARB bet b/c there is no risk in an EV if you put up your bankroll you will be eaten alive by variance. It is very obvious a $3 Arb bet is lower than $3 EV bet. But if $3 is your whole bankroll to make it apples to apple you should be betting 1% of $3 or 3 cents... then see who has the higher EV.
I just checked the website he promotes, it literally says they have lost 5k this month with an expected 9k bankroll, the risk is way too high even though their bets are of 100-200, like you say here, this is not comparable to arb for us without tons and tons of money to throw at it
It sounds like it may be beneficial for new bettors to start with arbitrage betting to build a substantial bankroll, then moving to EV betting when you have enough cash to weather the losses you may get with EV betting.
@@truthdetective4534meh I think they both require decent size bankrolls as you have to place upwards of 30-50 parlays each day for ev if you want to start making real money
I’ve been down this path and there’s a couple of extra points you should’ve raised? 1. Opening accounts with overseas bookies is risky, as a lot are tax haven based. Firstly you lose on currency exchange rates just getting your money in. 2. Try getting your money out, time delays are part and parcel. 3. You can’t complain to the ACCC if they rip you off. 4. Getting your bet on in time takes time. You have to log in find the match, which can take a few minutes, only to find that the odds have changed. 5. Overseas matches are in another time zone and you find yourself being up all sorts of hours. Sounds good in theory, but in the end I gave it away, as too much hassle and added risk IMHO
@@phulen7681 You need to apply online to each bookmaker and verify your age and transfer money. 1 AUD only buys USD$0.7. you also lose on currency exchange in and out. That’s 4-5% down the drain. Do a check on where the bookmakers are licensed? A lot are based in a tax free haven, where if they decide not to pay you back, good luck thinking some law is going to help you recover your money. Think of it this way? If you knew you were onto a easy money making betting scheme, would you tell anyone your methods? These mobs flogging these schemes get affiliate link kickbacks from the odds providers and youtube pays them if they get enough subscribers.
@@soldurham1351 Not for very long, as they are a wake up to Arbing, and I’m sure they share info on accounts. Their algorithms are pretty smart and know what to look for? Once they even suspect you’re Arbing they reduce the amount you can place. The betting blogs are filled with stories of accounts being closed.
It is unfair to use the same bet amount in an EV bet vs a risk free ARB. You can put up as much as you like in an ARB bet b/c there is no risk in an EV if you put up your bankroll you will be eaten alive by variance. It is very obvious a $3 Arb bet is lower than $3 EV bet. But if $3 is your whole bankroll to make it apples to apple you should be betting 1% of $3 or 3 cents... then see who has the higher EV.
That's where bankroll management comes into play. Card counters use this in blackjack as they are +EV style players, playing with usually at best 2-3% edge. I understand your point saying that it makes no sense for an arbitrage bettor to only risk $3 in the same way as an EV bettor but it was for comparing numbers. The idea is just that +EV lets you play for more theoretical profit for a smaller bet amount
The whole point of it was to say that this is for the long run, assuming you place many bets over time the profits will be far greater. He's not saying throw your entire savings into 1 bet like you might do with ARB, but rather saying if you consistently use this method you're mathematically almost completely guaranteed to make much larger profits. Like in the quarter example. each time you win a $3 bet on heads you have $9 meaning you can make 3 more bets again with that and assuming the odds are 50/50 since you have 3 flips now you can safely assume at least one of those will be another heads since the probability of a coin landing the same 3 times in a row is only 12.25%. If one of those 3 flips is another head you made profit and mathematically the profit margin outweighs the potential losing so if you flipped the coin 1,000 times the profits of the wins outweighs the losses of all the times it hit tails. So ev betting isn't meant to dump your whole account into at once, but assumes that if you have enough money to take a few hits and do more bets over time the profits make up for the losses by a higher degree than the amount of profit ARB's with the same odds would make. If you only have a small ammount to start with then of course go for ARB where you can safely cash in small wins. But once you have enough saved up money that you can place many bets often and taking some of them as losses then the winnings in those overall outweigh the times you lost over time😊 Hope that kinda clears it up. He addressed all that in the vid he flat out says Arbs are the safe option but mathematically +ev turns a greater profit over time. Especially when you have enough money that you have limits on the ammount you can bet and you want to go higher that's when arbs fall off they plateu at that point and can't really make much more but that's the point where +ev takes off and keeps pulling in the greater profit over time
Unfortunately we cannot do this here in Germany as the bet plattforms add 5% betting tax (that they have to pay) to the odds, which means one has to find a +5% bet just to break even.
As someone who has tried to play safer bets where the odds may be 1.50 vs 2.50 for example it may as well be a 50/50 coin toss because every time I pick they favourite they tend to lose 😂
I've been doing something similar with futures for a decade. I only take spots that are +10% ev or greater. I've been doing everything by hand the entire time. Its very time consuming but well worth it when you find the right spots and can get large amounts down. Some books will limit you after a while though.
Do you have a group chat discussion of some sort? I’m very into the topic and getting into doing the work myself would love to hear more always a good idea to bounce ideas around.
I don't have a specific group chat or anything for it. Once a spot comes up I play it big and then if the line hasn't moved I tell friends about the spot afterwards and they will play it. I'm probably not looking to give away the exact formula because if there are many more people doing what I'm doing and betting big the books will adjust and the spots will disappear. I have no problem adding more people to the group I notify after I place my bets. You'll need to have accounts at just about all major books, but there are 3 that I find make the most mistakes.
@@stevewickline1525 I would love to be included into your group, sounds like u are a very calculated individual. Please get back to me would love to hear more
I'm a day trader, and I was interested in learning about how the casinos make money. This explanation of EV makes so much sense and I've used the calculation to determine if my trading edge will be profitable in the long term or not with my back testing data (which it is cuz it had good positive EV) . Thank you!
@@Insta_trixocity a lot better in day trading. Even though the markets are complex and manipulated, you can control for your risk reward so that you don't need a high win rate to be wicked profitable. With my system, I only win 30-40% of the time but can pull in 10-20% portfolio growth a month because my risk/reward is so high.
I've many arbitrage bettors but be assured they can always give you a whole bunch of ideas on it but one thing for sure they'll never show you how and on what markets to place the bets they claim
The problem you have if you don't hedge is that your bankroll could be completely eliminated if you have a run against you. Just because you get 500 out of 1000 in long term odds that doesn't mean that you could go 10,000 without getting a tails result. That would destroy your capital.
Would like to see a simulation where optimal size bet theory (proven by Adam Kuckarski) would be applied in this scenario with multiple coin tosses. Becuase in the arbitrage situation you would allways be allowed to bet your full bankrole and bet bigger and bigger since you will never lose, but you would have to limited your % bankrole bet when you place your bet on only the head.
Don't forget sports is not like a coin toss. The rule of numbers may stand under different influences. A bad team is a bad team an can have a good game one day but it isn't anything near compared to a real 50/50 coin toss. Have that in mind when betting.
That is true, but you aren't worried about the outcome of the game/match. All you are worried about is the odds of each possible outcome. Most team sports that's win for team a, draw or win for team b.
If you calculate drawdown EV has more drawdown that means cant use full capital for compound. In the long run arbitrage still can better because of low drawdown
When your odds are not 50/50 like a coin toss, your numbers can look much worse than what was shown. I’d be interested to see the distribution of the odds of the positive EV opportunities. Are they normally distributed around 0.5? That’s what this video implies…
It’s a terrible example as there will never ever exist a market like this as nobody, anywhere in the world will give you 3/1 for what is an even money shot. Scraping 10p in the £ is a result.
@@DizzyNeko It's not that the game itself is a coin toss, but the odds are set to drive the total bets placed to be 50/50. The sports book isn't in the business of gambling, they are in the business of being a middleman and taking a rake.
You didnt really mention the main disadvantage of EV betting which is that you need to know the probabilities. And if you have wrong estimations of those probabilities your EV betting strategy will not work. For Arbitrage betting however, you do not need to know the probabilities
Without using OddsJam, how would you go about to find these positive EV bets? Do you spend hours looking around for mispriced odds manually? Are there specific events that are more prone to being mispriced?
This year is really going to be crazy , Greetings from Florida please i know this information might not be for everyone but anyone who is finding it difficult to trade / invest or willing to know its basic profitability should work with Helen Howard pratea she is an expert advisor who mentors me , i have profited a lot from following her guide and instructions
@@elliotwilson8874 No, i was not , i found her in a business Magazine where she was featured and i reached out to her afterwards she has since provided entry and exit on the securities i focus on . You can look her name up online if you care supervision i basically follow her trade pattern and havent regretted doing so
Whilst understanding the mathematics, finding these positive ev scenarios is extremely difficult, plus it won’t be long before your account gets heavily restricted or shut down by the online bookmakers.
Not really you lose often enough next to the regular punters. Both sides get paid plus there are books though rare that don't punish winners. Soft books tend to ban and restrict accounts because they get punters to join and keep putting money in only to lose it. I know that is me.
@@dj4monie Again, ‘both sides’ only get paid if it’s a strictly 50/50 split. I have been restricted from several accounts due to 70% plus winning over and over on the same site.
Congrats bro. Great video there. In arbitrage betting, you are betting for either one of the teams to win in one book marker and, the other team to lose in another book marker. But what if at regular time both teams are at a draw
The question I have is how to find +Ev/arbitrage bets in the UK. There are plenty of sites offering needless ‘tools’ for a premium membership, but what I really need is something which finds the lines or at least indicates the possibilities.
I reckon it’s better to follow the injury lists of NBA teams, find an underdog who is short priced and place X on it and then the next morning when the other team is now the underdog, place the same amount on them.
This is a great approach & injury lists are an important factor in all decisions in sport & horse racing Tennis tournaments are brilliant for injury based betting especially when you have ageing champions carrying injuries into a tournament Another great feature of tennis is zero chance of a draw The biggest bets on horse races are mostly placed after the parade & in the final 30 seconds before all horses are loaded into barriers, some professional punters prefer harness racing because there are no barriers though the parade is very different or arguably absent so it's possible to miss indicators showing stress or sub-optimal conditioning or winter coat or excess weight which show up in parades -;some horses freak out around & in the barriers & this can upset or cause injuries to themselves or other horses Good luck!
I have tried arbitrage betting, and although I had profits, it was too difficult to find winning bets. I have tested also lots of 50-50 bets with different waging systems. But this looks most promising. Thanks.
You can't find them because books are sharp. You need to find promotions from the new bookies (70+ in Australia now all under different skins) and abuse their promos while laying off action on the exchange to make $$$
@@hackingSORRY You can find them with software, but once you start making consistent profits around it and it becomes like clockwork, (when you go in and out) they start to limit you or gub you.
The arbitrage/ev+ better comparison is a little bit flawed: An arbitrage better would not place that hedge bet for such bad odds, but rather for nearly fair odds, for example at a betting exchange. If you assume that he can bet the hedge bet a the fair odds of 2, you get the same expected value of 3$..
He is way off.The EV is actually 2.34.The EV is the same for an arbitrage bettor and for a value bettor.The only difference is that the arbitrage bettor lays the bet and thus taking the value on the spot,and the value bettor relies on variance and let s the bet run.I have 2000+ opened sites and I actually know wtf I m talking about.Unlike some people here...
I'm a bot developer and Engineer by profession and I've been researching a while on arbitrage betting as I hope to commence a personal project on this soon. Your videos have been very insightful. I do think using an automated system that can identify these opportunities, do the calculations and place the bets all in a few seconds would be a lot helpful. However, I'm still a bit skeptical about making this process entirely automated. Would love to know your thoughts on this
If you actually have a stable job and are doing it on the side with the automated system, then i don't think it would hurt to risk 100$ trying it out (but i would try to setup a local test system first)
I would be careful about automating anything that would place bets without my manual approval. A single bug could cause you to lose everything if your bot goes rogue. Otherwise it is a good idea, you will be faster and it takes less time.
@@staywithmesenpai Ah, yes. Definitely gonna be testing the whole process for a reasonable period of time before putting in anything significant. Thanks for your input
@@ShaneHuang88 Oh yea. You're right shane. That's the main reason behind my skepticism but I'd setup a test phase for it with a minimal amount across the bookmakers before actually putting anything significant. Hopefully, it'll be worth it
I am a Software Engineer who played with this idea for a while, however from what I have seen, even Pinnacle states that botting is not allowed. Although I have not tried it but I guess your bot would receive a captcha some day and your account would get closed. Any experience on this by somebody?
Ok so long term let’s say, how do you propose to overcome continuous bans / promo eligibility bans, you can use family members accounts for a while until the same happens to all there accounts, you can then move to buying accounts but that provides issues if you need to dispute anything. Thoughts?
With Australian bookies only this only works for a very short period then your accounts will be banned or restricted to betting pointlessly small amounts. Can you comment on overseas bookies and which 1s are trustworthy and all associated fees and risks of using overseas bookmakers?
@nanimalireddy5155 That depends on what help you need with. Are you in Australia and want to try this arbitrage stuff ? If so, you'd need to have a good head for numbers and 2 or 3k atleast, to use as a bankroll. To be honest as I said in my post above..will only work for a very short period before bookmakers cut you off or restrict your bets to pointlessly small amounts..
I understand your example in the video, but I can not relate it to the sport betting. How do you calculate EV for a match between say England vs Uruguay. What are the probabilities of England win or Uraguay win? Second, assume the probabilities are 50/50 like coin toss, how do you bet this match in the long run? Two teams play against each other in few matches in a decade, not thousands match for you to bet.
It's simple, if you let a coin decide on which team to place a bet, you get 50% chance. If you keep betting like this, after let's say 1000 bets, you'll be around 500/500 or 450/550 or 550/450, or any number close to half/half. The bigger the number, the smaller the variance, the closer you're getting to 50/50 odds.
I mean you can essentially use both, for someone starting out who doesn’t want to risk anything they can use arbitrage betting to build up money wjth guaranteed profits then switch over to ev betting when they are ok with taking a loss for a while
Thanks for the breakdown! I have a quick question: I have a SafePal wallet with USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (air carpet target dish off jeans toilet sweet piano spoil fruit essay). How can I transfer them to Binance?
I think the benefit for me with arbitrage is that I can know for sure that I will gain money without having to estimate the EV. EV tends to require assumptions that are hard to verify.
Thanks for the analysis! 🔍 Just a small off-topic question: 😅 I have a set of words 🤷♂️. (behave today finger ski upon boy assault summer exhaust beauty stereo over). What is this? 🤔
Surely this is dependent on accurately assessing the true probabilities of the outcomes. This then comes down to interpretation and is subjective. A fair coin has a known and constant probability. So on this basis Arb betting would make more sense to me than +ve EV … unless you have an edge in accurately determining the true probabilities of events. What am I missing ?
How does the software know that a bet is a positive one? From what I understood it needs to compare the odd being paid with the actual odd of it hitting. But how does it know the odd of let's say Barcelona winning? Isn't it subjective?
ARB is still better because of the fact that it is 100% guaranteed, positive EV may earn more with a high % but if it isn't 100%, then it isn't worth it IMO.
This is why understanding probability is so important. Take his weighted coin example and look up a free propability calculator. weight the outcome to .51 and slowly increase the occurrences. You'll soon see the odds of not being up become so low that it's all but impossible. Now do this again and put in a straight line representing a reasonable arbitrage return and then run the above Sim and input the data for ev and you'll see over time even being below the arbitrage av with ev betting becomes nearly impossible. I haven't watched a lot of his videos so this may change but my only criticism at this point is I don't like the idea of people who don't understand what's going on getting involved in these sorts of things. The ap world is interesting but you can't depend on one skill. It's important to understand the math behind what you do to some degree. I'm not saying become a mathematician but becoming an ap is a lot of work and leaving value whether av or ev on the table isn't something that is done. That said maybe the sports betting world is different but i can't imagine why it would be.
With arbitrage being 100% win or at least 0% loss isn't it much easier to scale. if you took the same example of 1000 flips, but the arbitrage bettor went all-in every time (£3 first flip wins .80. £3.80 2nd flip wins £1 £4.80 3rd flip and so on) he would be way more profitable. EV can't do this as 50% of the time you get reset to zero
Exactly. +EV is all about betting where you know you have an edge. A better example would be if you were using a weighted coin where you knew heads was 52% and tails was 48%. You would always bet heads cause you have an edge. That’s what +EV betting is. It’s not about betting 50/50 odds.
Very interested in this strategy. I am not super familiar with Pinnacle, so I wonder, is it really universally accepted that Pinnacle has the most accurate odds of any Sportsbook? Is there proof of this? That is my main concern about this strategy. Thank you
I don't get the strat before the EV+ betting. That assumes the outcome is a 50/50 and in real life sports, it isn't 50/50 to begin with. So unless you are coin flipping betting, having a 3:1 bet doesn't matter in the long term, because if the guy who has the 3, looses 99% of the time, you loose, even more so with law of large numbers.
Question 🎉 after a fair bit of learning and understanding the maths and how everything works, I've started to trial pos EV two days ago. I used oddsjam, was super thorough that the odds are reflected and correct. I placed 48 bets, all positive EV (also context, I obviously did it with a small bankroll of £300 so it doesn't affect me in case it doesn't work out). 32 of them are settled now and I'm down by £55. With the pending upcoming bets I still have potential payout of £116/that what I could be up. However, looking at the number of bets already settled and to the ones pending, it looks like the trend is a clear negative. Now, is that just something that happens quite a bit or was is this just an outliar of many bets gone wrong?. Almost 50 bets seems like a good sample size to take advantage of the positive EV maths so I thought with a large betting pool I shouldn't be down that much, even if I'm unlucky?
Is it possible to know what video I should watch FIRST before all? I keep stopping the video to watch another.... I rather learn left to right, instead of right to left...
Let's be real, if multipliers offered are 4 and 1,6 it is not gonna be coinflip. It is favored for latter and by how much determines which of bets is going to be positive EV, if underdog's chances are between 1/4 and 3/8 both are positive EV. Reason why arbitrage betting is possible in first place is because there is not enough info to rigorously calculate odds and betting sites have to make educated guesses. If it would be that easy to calculate odds every betting site would do so and there never would be any positive EV bets. Arbitrage betting's idea is that there is no need to guess which of options is positive EV one. All that matters is thah at least one of them is and by multi-option betting it can be ensured that EV for that strategy is positive regardless of odds for actual event. Positive EV strat requires you to be able to know actual odds for event to be able to recognize which of given bets is positive EV. If your algorithm thinks that event where you could find 4 multiplier for 1 side and only 1,6 for other side was equal odds for each side, it probably is not that divine algorithm. Most ppl who bet on sports think they are doing positive EV betting, but betting sites still keep making moneys.
Hey Shane just thinking of your + EV bettor example with odds 4.00. If the EV = 3, would the bettor not be indifferent between betting his 3 dollars? Factoring the fact that EV returns are still associated with some downside, the bettor would even be more inclined to not risk his $3 if the return is the same as his initial outlay.
Good video, But you're having a big problem. The same mistake made by many retail traders, for the EV you can't compare the odds of coin toss 50/50, with the probabilities of matches and you don't have a very large sample of data to know the significance of the probabilities you're having (you can't decide over 1000 or even 5000 data points). So what your thinking contradicts the law of LN. The opposite, if you have a very close to guaranteed edge, stick with it and bet often. Quantitative backtests of fundamental economic data can get away somehow with average sample sizes, because they are done on monthly or quarterly data points, and markets are fractal, so you can have positions lasting hours or minutes for EV you backtested in monthly data, also you have similar sets so you can have positions in many connected assets.
For the probability, you use the fair market odds (wisdom of the crowd) or a sharp bookmaker like pinnacle. There is a bit of uncertainty but it isn't significant.
@@ShaneHuang88 I think you're missing the point of putting odds to your side in a statistically significant, and constant way. By this, you are trying to play the game that these companies want you to play, which is having a directional bet, and use their betting probabilities to calculate yours, which is completely wrong, cause net/net each company is winner. If what you explained is correct, long time betting people should be now rich, cause they played a lot over time on most probable sides) The only way, is to do arbitrage, cause on aggregate you will have discrepancy, cause there's not a highly efficient centralized betting network, and the nature of what you're betting on is hard to continuously put into correct probabilities. So arbitrage is profitable, but needs a team, many phones.. Etc. Watch the recent video of spencer Cornelia, it confirms my point. Quick example, selling option contracts in financial markets, has a 90 to 97% probability of success in thousands of trades..(better than sports betting) And even if you apply your idea of EV, that 3% is able to destroy all your account and even more. So quant funds do volatility arbitrage, by selling and buying same option, same strike but different calendars.. Keep doing research, and improving.. Don't listen to haters :)
How does Oddsjam know if a quote is wrong? And what if the bookie tells you that the quote was wrong and gives you back only the bet money without the profit?
It doesn't really make sense because you don't know what the actual probability is. It is not always 50 50 like in the coin flip example and you don't know what the ground truth is which you need in order to calculate the expected value.
So no matter what the odds are, you just place your bet on the bigger odd (it can be 3 or 5 or 6) and the probability that they go in will be 450 of 1000? Sorry for my english im not sure I understood the video right
I’ve checked out that guy from OddsJam. He’s really good. But unfortunately I don’t think this method is possible unless you actually live in the US since those exchanges are pretty much all US based. Could you confirm if this is true?
I think the example in comparing the arbitrage vs positive ev is flawed. In both examples, profit was gathered as the overall profit per flip multiplied by the number of flips. This may be true for positive ev, but if I was an arbitrage bettor and knew that I was always guaranteed profit I would compound the profits after each round making. On the other hand, positive ev isn't able to do this effectively as one loss would be an instant bankrupt. In the long term, I believe arbitrage is better
What you are describing here is a random walk and eventually you go back to zero, or a martingale type of betting where you compound each bet. You can do a modification like Hull White's model or Asian Exotic Options or something along the lines. This aligns more with Financial Mathematics than Regular Mathematics and it goes really deep. Artibage is known as NO FREE LUNCH (Showning in crypto where artibage existed between countries prime example) but in stocks this is quickly rectfied however in gambling because so many events are happening at once it's impossible to remove that artibage. You can do some modification to EV to make it better than aribtage but you be devling into 1st order and second order PDEs and this is beyond where you should be.
Scrap what I said before it is a random walk but you have forgotten something you are assuming that the bets can go to infinity, if so then EV becomes a random walk but this is not the case as bets do have a maximum value. Arbitage is better if you assume you cannot attain the maximum , treating the maximum bet as infinity therefore your profits are guarantee however when you hit the maximum betting range then you switch to EV, if your bet goes to infinity than Aribtage is obvious better. $1 times infinity and 60c times infinity is infinity, however with EV it's 3$ times infinity and 0 times infinity means it's all in one chance.
The comment i made was with regards to the example in the video where number of bets were capped to 1000 and there were no max bets. I do agree with you that this only works while bets are capped, but even then there are ways around the cap. For example, a betting group can be made with the leader providing the arbitrage bet and receiving commission in exchange. I never got into sports betting, but the idea is similar to a stock broker.
I would say you need at least 2k to start. The more the better up to a certain extent ~ after 10k, there isn't much benefit but anything less than 2k, then there isnt much point to it. Hope it helps :)
Look I check tens of thousands of odds and arbitrage opportunities never exists. I also check in few betting odds comparison sites and they rarely exist. He just made these to make his videos interesting. Who does give $4 and $1.8 in head to head Also how does a team with $4 odds have 45% percent of winning against $1.8 odds?? In short run or even in long run. Bookies have calculated profits and odds. They got softwares so that their odds don’t go in big margins against other bookies and they don’t let make arbitrage opportunities for people. Fucking fake for views.
Shane explain me. If a Game like : Galatasaray vs Barcelona plays. Why are the odds not 50/50 for each team?? Like your cointoss?? Teams are not equaly STRONG so even if the odds are 7.5 for Galatasaray, 1.36 for Barcelona and 5.25 for a Draw. The EV for Galatasaray is high but still the odds are not 50/50 but more like 75/25... this makes no sence to me so long term u still lose the money they already calculated.
I'm not sure if my way is correct, but I usually try finding the true odds of the bet. This can be done by looking at the odds on an exchange like Betfair. For your example, if Barcelona had back odds of 1.4 and lay odds of 1.5, then the true odds would be 1.45. You can then use this to calculate the implied probability (1/decimal odds)×100. 1/1.45×100= 68.97% probability that Barcelona will win. You can then use this to calculate the EV of the event. Hope this helps!
Interesting video one example involves a no risk profit the other higher pay out but the chance of losing,as mathematical principal this is correct,however how many folks have a bankroll big enough to cope with the long losing runs? If I had a huge bankroll positive EV would be for me as I'm not risk adverse but as I don't have a huge bankroll Arbitrage is the way for me ...
I did a bot once that played the nightingale system for roulet at a few betting sites with their playmoney. Every time it ran into some long loosing streak causing it to loose all money within a couple of days. Your concern is exactly why "small risk if your bank roll is large enough" should be avoided. It always happens sooner or later!
Hey Shane, thanks for sharing. I am from Australia and looks like not going to get it to work with your new strategy. Is the BonusBank method that you share previously still valid ?
Look I check tens of thousands of odds and arbitrage opportunities never exists in Australia . I also check in many betting odds comparison sites in Australia and they rarely exist. In long run you always lose, gambling is good for fun. But you can’t put your future and your families in gambling stake. 99.5% of ppl always end up losing. He just made these to make his videos interesting. Who does give $4 and $1.8 in head to head Also how does a team with $4 odds have 45% percent of winning against $1.8 odds?? In short run or even in long run. Bookies have calculated profits and odds. They got softwares so that their odds don’t go in big margins against other bookies and they don’t let make arbitrage opportunities for people. Fucking fake for views.
@@prajwalkarki8944 Its not fake. Its real. I work in a sports betting company and i am sure this is real. We skew the odds to attract arbitragers to offload risk for us. We skew the odds for a brief 10-20minutes on average and thats all it takes for automated arbitragers to detect the opportunities and execute their trade. Bookmakers want arbitrage because localised fans are very polarising when it comes to betting. A region of 5million population can be die hard liverpool fans. If you imagine all of them buying liverpool 1X2, the bookmaker will have a very heavy potential loss if liverpool really wins. To prevent heavy losses, they will skew the odds by severely lowering liverpool and increasing the odds for the opponent to attract arbitragers. It is a deliberate act by the bookmakers.
@@prajwalkarki8944 "Who does give $4 and $1.8 in head to head" It's a hypothetical you muppet. That's the point, make it so obvious that idiots can get the gist of it.
+EV betting seems like regular sports betting with extra steps. It seems good in the coinflip example because you know the odds are be 50/50, but you can't know for a fact what the odds should be in a match How do you determine accurately that a book is overpaying a certain outcome? You are now betting on what the odds should be instead of on your favorite team
Ive been using this in a small scale ( betting around 1-30$ at a time) and some days you lose but at the end of the month i almoat always have 200-300$ win. I dont know how but it works lol.
This statistical analysis ignores variances and streaks A better method of analysis would be using a random walk of expected wins; this would account for, say, sometimes when you a flip a coin, it's heads 8 times in a row.
so in toss coin there's 50 / 50, right ? but i think in sports the team with lower odds means the team is stronger than higher odd team. so we can't say it's 50 / 50.
Exactly!! And sure, you can calculate it from the bookies' odds, but these are always mispriced in their favor (negative EV) unless they make a mistake... but how are you going to estimate that probability more accurately than them in order to notice they made a mistake?? Machine learning models from huge piles of historical data??
@@luisfrodriguez6641 you just cannot, too many factors and bookmakers have done their homework and they certainly estimate probabilities better than you plus their little bonus
🏆 🏆 For those who do want to learn the trade and make money betting yourselves (like a pro trader) using positive EV betting, then you can check out my 5 - part sports betting course over on my website at:
Australia/NZ: shanehuang.com.au/course/
USA/Canada: arbitragecamp.com/usa-course/
Would it work for people from Europe?
If the EV betting so successful, what is the point of charging people on courses? Does it mean betting alone the risk reward doesn’t justify
This doesn't make sense if a team draw you lose that's rubbish
Im from south Africa how can access these
"Speculation" will always yield more than "arbitrage" but the key difference is you cannot fully compound via positive EV or any sort of betting/trading with probabilities as there's always risk, no matter how small... hence you cannot go all in and efficiently compound all your capital. Unlike risk free arbitrage
FACTSSSSS it is unfair to use the same bet amount in an EV bet vs a risk free ARB. You can put up as much as you like in an ARB bet b/c there is no risk in an EV if you put up your bankroll you will be eaten alive by variance. It is very obvious a $3 Arb bet is lower than $3 EV bet. But if $3 is your whole bankroll to make it apples to apple you should be betting 1% of $3 or 3 cents... then see who has the higher EV.
There is a way if you are disciplined and you stake third of your roll and stick to the third of the roll even if you are losing or winning
I just checked the website he promotes, it literally says they have lost 5k this month with an expected 9k bankroll, the risk is way too high even though their bets are of 100-200, like you say here, this is not comparable to arb for us without tons and tons of money to throw at it
@@libertymouth68261/3 is way too much
@@libertymouth6826 bye after 3 consecutive losses which is inevitable soon
It sounds like it may be beneficial for new bettors to start with arbitrage betting to build a substantial bankroll, then moving to EV betting when you have enough cash to weather the losses you may get with EV betting.
@@TheMezidon2008😂😂bro
how long should you bet with EV to start gaining some profit?
Its the other way around, sure betting requires a large bankroll while value betting doesnt.
@@truthdetective4534meh I think they both require decent size bankrolls as you have to place upwards of 30-50 parlays each day for ev if you want to start making real money
youll banned for arbitrage before you move to ev. ask me how I know
I’ve been down this path and there’s a couple of extra points you should’ve raised? 1. Opening accounts with overseas bookies is risky, as a lot are tax haven based. Firstly you lose on currency exchange rates just getting your money in. 2. Try getting your money out, time delays are part and parcel. 3. You can’t complain to the ACCC if they rip you off. 4. Getting your bet on in time takes time. You have to log in find the match, which can take a few minutes, only to find that the odds have changed. 5. Overseas matches are in another time zone and you find yourself being up all sorts of hours. Sounds good in theory, but in the end I gave it away, as too much hassle and added risk IMHO
How did u register for the bets? Most of them ask for confirmation on numbers and such to make an account
@@phulen7681 You need to apply online to each bookmaker and verify your age and transfer money. 1 AUD only buys USD$0.7. you also lose on currency exchange in and out. That’s 4-5% down the drain. Do a check on where the bookmakers are licensed? A lot are based in a tax free haven, where if they decide not to pay you back, good luck thinking some law is going to help you recover your money. Think of it this way? If you knew you were onto a easy money making betting scheme, would you tell anyone your methods? These mobs flogging these schemes get affiliate link kickbacks from the odds providers and youtube pays them if they get enough subscribers.
@@pauleasther I just bet on local sites and never tried going on outside sites, appreciate the heads up
@@pauleasther can you still arbotrage bet on only australian sites ??
@@soldurham1351 Not for very long, as they are a wake up to Arbing, and I’m sure they share info on accounts. Their algorithms are pretty smart and know what to look for? Once they even suspect you’re Arbing they reduce the amount you can place. The betting blogs are filled with stories of accounts being closed.
It is unfair to use the same bet amount in an EV bet vs a risk free ARB. You can put up as much as you like in an ARB bet b/c there is no risk in an EV if you put up your bankroll you will be eaten alive by variance. It is very obvious a $3 Arb bet is lower than $3 EV bet. But if $3 is your whole bankroll to make it apples to apple you should be betting 1% of $3 or 3 cents... then see who has the higher EV.
Good point
You nailed it man
That's where bankroll management comes into play. Card counters use this in blackjack as they are +EV style players, playing with usually at best 2-3% edge.
I understand your point saying that it makes no sense for an arbitrage bettor to only risk $3 in the same way as an EV bettor but it was for comparing numbers. The idea is just that +EV lets you play for more theoretical profit for a smaller bet amount
The whole point of it was to say that this is for the long run, assuming you place many bets over time the profits will be far greater. He's not saying throw your entire savings into 1 bet like you might do with ARB, but rather saying if you consistently use this method you're mathematically almost completely guaranteed to make much larger profits.
Like in the quarter example. each time you win a $3 bet on heads you have $9 meaning you can make 3 more bets again with that and assuming the odds are 50/50 since you have 3 flips now you can safely assume at least one of those will be another heads since the probability of a coin landing the same 3 times in a row is only 12.25%. If one of those 3 flips is another head you made profit and mathematically the profit margin outweighs the potential losing so if you flipped the coin 1,000 times the profits of the wins outweighs the losses of all the times it hit tails. So ev betting isn't meant to dump your whole account into at once, but assumes that if you have enough money to take a few hits and do more bets over time the profits make up for the losses by a higher degree than the amount of profit ARB's with the same odds would make.
If you only have a small ammount to start with then of course go for ARB where you can safely cash in small wins. But once you have enough saved up money that you can place many bets often and taking some of them as losses then the winnings in those overall outweigh the times you lost over time😊
Hope that kinda clears it up. He addressed all that in the vid he flat out says Arbs are the safe option but mathematically +ev turns a greater profit over time. Especially when you have enough money that you have limits on the ammount you can bet and you want to go higher that's when arbs fall off they plateu at that point and can't really make much more but that's the point where +ev takes off and keeps pulling in the greater profit over time
wait til the bookies banned u bro
Unfortunately we cannot do this here in Germany as the bet plattforms add 5% betting tax (that they have to pay) to the odds, which means one has to find a +5% bet just to break even.
dont pay the taxes
@@Tashyncho-Sapa it gets automatically taken when you win your bet
Irgendwie muss die Regierung ja noch an den Spielsüchtigen verdienen
In Poland it's 12%.. so it doesn't have sense at all in UE
yep, these 5% hurt
As someone who has tried to play safer bets where the odds may be 1.50 vs 2.50 for example it may as well be a 50/50 coin toss because every time I pick they favourite they tend to lose 😂
I've been doing something similar with futures for a decade. I only take spots that are +10% ev or greater. I've been doing everything by hand the entire time. Its very time consuming but well worth it when you find the right spots and can get large amounts down. Some books will limit you after a while though.
I'd definitely love to know more about this. How often do you get such spots?
Do you have a group chat discussion of some sort? I’m very into the topic and getting into doing the work myself would love to hear more always a good idea to bounce ideas around.
I don't have a specific group chat or anything for it. Once a spot comes up I play it big and then if the line hasn't moved I tell friends about the spot afterwards and they will play it. I'm probably not looking to give away the exact formula because if there are many more people doing what I'm doing and betting big the books will adjust and the spots will disappear. I have no problem adding more people to the group I notify after I place my bets. You'll need to have accounts at just about all major books, but there are 3 that I find make the most mistakes.
Not often. I make less than 20 bets per year. They are all big though.
@@stevewickline1525 I would love to be included into your group, sounds like u are a very calculated individual. Please get back to me would love to hear more
It’d be interesting to hear you apply positive ev to prize picks.
I'm a day trader, and I was interested in learning about how the casinos make money. This explanation of EV makes so much sense and I've used the calculation to determine if my trading edge will be profitable in the long term or not with my back testing data (which it is cuz it had good positive EV) . Thank you!
Can you put me on bro? Just came up on some sports betting cash
@@Insta_trixocity i dont sports bet i day trade
@@jamescurley8559 ahh okay never heard of it, are the EV results similar to sports or better over at day trading?
@@Insta_trixocity a lot better in day trading. Even though the markets are complex and manipulated, you can control for your risk reward so that you don't need a high win rate to be wicked profitable. With my system, I only win 30-40% of the time but can pull in 10-20% portfolio growth a month because my risk/reward is so high.
Bro kindly send me your appline so I can learn more about day trading
I've many arbitrage bettors but be assured they can always give you a whole bunch of ideas on it but one thing for sure they'll never show you how and on what markets to place the bets they claim
Who can help me with arbitrate games
They do show you what markets to bet, how much to bet on each team and what you'll win.
That's becuase it'd just make it harder for them.
Why would they give away their edge?
Nothing is beats pure arbritage from a financial reward/risk perspectove
From his videos it seems that bookies ban arbitrage betters faster.
The problem you have if you don't hedge is that your bankroll could be completely eliminated if you have a run against you. Just because you get 500 out of 1000 in long term odds that doesn't mean that you could go 10,000 without getting a tails result. That would destroy your capital.
Would like to see a simulation where optimal size bet theory (proven by Adam Kuckarski) would be applied in this scenario with multiple coin tosses. Becuase in the arbitrage situation you would allways be allowed to bet your full bankrole and bet bigger and bigger since you will never lose, but you would have to limited your % bankrole bet when you place your bet on only the head.
Don't forget sports is not like a coin toss. The rule of numbers may stand under different influences. A bad team is a bad team an can have a good game one day but it isn't anything near compared to a real 50/50 coin toss. Have that in mind when betting.
That is true, but you aren't worried about the outcome of the game/match. All you are worried about is the odds of each possible outcome.
Most team sports that's win for team a, draw or win for team b.
If you calculate drawdown EV has more drawdown that means cant use full capital for compound. In the long run arbitrage still can better because of low drawdown
Great video!
When your odds are not 50/50 like a coin toss, your numbers can look much worse than what was shown. I’d be interested to see the distribution of the odds of the positive EV opportunities. Are they normally distributed around 0.5? That’s what this video implies…
It’s a terrible example as there will never ever exist a market like this as nobody, anywhere in the world will give you 3/1 for what is an even money shot. Scraping 10p in the £ is a result.
That is an extreme example but formula remains the same, as long as you’re placing a large group of bets you’ll be in the green
Yes exactly I was wondering the same. Sports games are not a coin toss. This is all calculated under the assumption that it is 50/50
@@DizzyNeko It's not under the assumption taht it is 50/50 you misunderstood.
@@DizzyNeko It's not that the game itself is a coin toss, but the odds are set to drive the total bets placed to be 50/50. The sports book isn't in the business of gambling, they are in the business of being a middleman and taking a rake.
but outcomes of sports events dont have predetermined probabilities.. so how can EV be calculated?
You didnt really mention the main disadvantage of EV betting which is that you need to know the probabilities. And if you have wrong estimations of those probabilities your EV betting strategy will not work. For Arbitrage betting however, you do not need to know the probabilities
Without using OddsJam, how would you go about to find these positive EV bets? Do you spend hours looking around for mispriced odds manually? Are there specific events that are more prone to being mispriced?
You can’t do this manually. Either you need to buy access or scrape and compare odds with a program you build.
This year is really going to be crazy , Greetings from Florida please i know this information might not be for everyone but anyone who is finding it difficult to trade / invest or willing to know its basic profitability should work with Helen Howard pratea she is an expert advisor who mentors me , i have profited a lot from following her guide and instructions
@@adamweah8037 Where you in the last tesla conference in Baltimore ? Where did you meet this lady
@@elliotwilson8874 No, i was not , i found her in a business Magazine where she was featured and i reached out to her afterwards she has since provided entry and exit on the securities i focus on . You can look her name up online if you care supervision i basically follow her trade pattern and havent regretted doing so
@@BrianMMO aye? u can compare soft bkmaker odds against the exchanges
Whilst understanding the mathematics, finding these positive ev scenarios is extremely difficult, plus it won’t be long before your account gets heavily restricted or shut down by the online bookmakers.
Not really you lose often enough next to the regular punters. Both sides get paid plus there are books though rare that don't punish winners. Soft books tend to ban and restrict accounts because they get punters to join and keep putting money in only to lose it. I know that is me.
@@dj4monie Again, ‘both sides’ only get paid if it’s a strictly 50/50 split. I have been restricted from several accounts due to 70% plus winning over and over on the same site.
The best way to approach this to avoid ban is to deliberately place bets to lose sometimes.
@@mauriceukaegbu620true, do tiny dollar amount bets on losses
Congrats bro. Great video there. In arbitrage betting, you are betting for either one of the teams to win in one book marker and, the other team to lose in another book marker. But what if at regular time both teams are at a draw
Glad to see you back. I hope your holidays went well! 😄
Thank you! You too!
The question I have is how to find +Ev/arbitrage bets in the UK. There are plenty of sites offering needless ‘tools’ for a premium membership, but what I really need is something which finds the lines or at least indicates the possibilities.
Surebet its free bro
i learn a lot of things from you bro keep going
I reckon it’s better to follow the injury lists of NBA teams, find an underdog who is short priced and place X on it and then the next morning when the other team is now the underdog, place the same amount on them.
Can you simplify more on this topic brother? Thank for the advice.
This is a great approach & injury lists are an important factor in all decisions in sport & horse racing
Tennis tournaments are brilliant for injury based betting especially when you have ageing champions carrying injuries into a tournament
Another great feature of tennis is zero chance of a draw
The biggest bets on horse races are mostly placed after the parade & in the final 30 seconds before all horses are loaded into barriers, some professional punters prefer harness racing because there are no barriers though the parade is very different or arguably absent so it's possible to miss indicators showing stress or sub-optimal conditioning or winter coat or excess weight which show up in parades -;some horses freak out around & in the barriers & this can upset or cause injuries to themselves or other horses
Good luck!
I have tried arbitrage betting, and although I had profits, it was too difficult to find winning bets. I have tested also lots of 50-50 bets with different waging systems. But this looks most promising. Thanks.
You can't find them because books are sharp. You need to find promotions from the new bookies (70+ in Australia now all under different skins) and abuse their promos while laying off action on the exchange to make $$$
@@hackingSORRY You can find them with software, but once you start making consistent profits around it and it becomes like clockwork, (when you go in and out) they start to limit you or gub you.
U need software to find them bro
@@malcolmwasher2308 what kinda software
@@ylmbonez depend what country u are if u are australia or usa then its easy other countrys not so
U have opened my mind thanks for the info on A betting and EV soo simple to make profits let’s get that bread kings
What time should i place my ev bet?nice video!!!🎉🎉
The arbitrage/ev+ better comparison is a little bit flawed: An arbitrage better would not place that hedge bet for such bad odds, but rather for nearly fair odds, for example at a betting exchange. If you assume that he can bet the hedge bet a the fair odds of 2, you get the same expected value of 3$..
He is way off.The EV is actually 2.34.The EV is the same for an arbitrage bettor and for a value bettor.The only difference is that the arbitrage bettor lays the bet and thus taking the value on the spot,and the value bettor relies on variance and let s the bet run.I have 2000+ opened sites and I actually know wtf I m talking about.Unlike some people here...
@@serbanaurelian4151 hi
@@serbanaurelian4151 with arbitrage, they will restrict your account, with EV will not
@@Tashyncho-Sapa Do u even know what is the difference between arbitrage and EV betting?
@@serbanaurelian4151 yes ofc, with arbitrage, you give big red flag to the bookie
How do you determine the fair probability of winning when calculating your EV? Sports betting it is hard to determine an actual probability
Formula
gotta use sharp sportsbook lines (removing vig too) and/or betting exchanges
Man, you know every secret about trading! Just the best menthor!
I'm a bot developer and Engineer by profession and I've been researching a while on arbitrage betting as I hope to commence a personal project on this soon. Your videos have been very insightful. I do think using an automated system that can identify these opportunities, do the calculations and place the bets all in a few seconds would be a lot helpful. However, I'm still a bit skeptical about making this process entirely automated. Would love to know your thoughts on this
If you actually have a stable job and are doing it on the side with the automated system, then i don't think it would hurt to risk 100$ trying it out (but i would try to setup a local test system first)
I would be careful about automating anything that would place bets without my manual approval. A single bug could cause you to lose everything if your bot goes rogue. Otherwise it is a good idea, you will be faster and it takes less time.
@@staywithmesenpai Ah, yes. Definitely gonna be testing the whole process for a reasonable period of time before putting in anything significant. Thanks for your input
@@ShaneHuang88 Oh yea. You're right shane. That's the main reason behind my skepticism but I'd setup a test phase for it with a minimal amount across the bookmakers before actually putting anything significant. Hopefully, it'll be worth it
I am a Software Engineer who played with this idea for a while, however from what I have seen, even Pinnacle states that botting is not allowed. Although I have not tried it but I guess your bot would receive a captcha some day and your account would get closed. Any experience on this by somebody?
Ok so long term let’s say, how do you propose to overcome continuous bans / promo eligibility bans, you can use family members accounts for a while until the same happens to all there accounts, you can then move to buying accounts but that provides issues if you need to dispute anything. Thoughts?
How much do you make before they start banning your accounts?
I wan ask like this is how to bet in football
easily one of my best investments
Yes but +EV has the risk pertaining to the distance between your estimated and the true distribution of the outcome.
I've personally found it helpful to use some software tools to assist with sports arbitrage, and Arb Adviser is one that I've had some success with
Michael is the best trader on planet
Awesome channel and Trading Platform. I have learned so much on this platform about Trading and betting
With Australian bookies only this only works for a very short period then your accounts will be banned or restricted to betting pointlessly small amounts.
Can you comment on overseas bookies and which 1s are trustworthy and all associated fees and risks of using overseas bookmakers?
Sir any one help me
@nanimalireddy5155
That depends on what help you need with.
Are you in Australia and want to try this arbitrage stuff ?
If so, you'd need to have a good head for numbers and 2 or 3k atleast, to use as a bankroll.
To be honest as I said in my post above..will only work for a very short period before bookmakers cut you off or restrict your bets to pointlessly small amounts..
@@Fred-rg5vw India I need help plzz hack the betting web site plzzz help me lots of problem i will die position
25% off? My face is raised and red from the metaphorical SLAP! Great video tho
I understand your example in the video, but I can not relate it to the sport betting. How do you calculate EV for a match between say England vs Uruguay. What are the probabilities of England win or Uraguay win? Second, assume the probabilities are 50/50 like coin toss, how do you bet this match in the long run? Two teams play against each other in few matches in a decade, not thousands match for you to bet.
It's simple, if you let a coin decide on which team to place a bet, you get 50% chance. If you keep betting like this, after let's say 1000 bets, you'll be around 500/500 or 450/550 or 550/450, or any number close to half/half. The bigger the number, the smaller the variance, the closer you're getting to 50/50 odds.
I mean you can essentially use both, for someone starting out who doesn’t want to risk anything they can use arbitrage betting to build up money wjth guaranteed profits then switch over to ev betting when they are ok with taking a loss for a while
Welcome back bro
These bot conversations in the comments are the best.
Thanks for the breakdown! I have a quick question: I have a SafePal wallet with USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (air carpet target dish off jeans toilet sweet piano spoil fruit essay). How can I transfer them to Binance?
I think the benefit for me with arbitrage is that I can know for sure that I will gain money without having to estimate the EV. EV tends to require assumptions that are hard to verify.
Thanks for the analysis! 🔍 Just a small off-topic question: 😅 I have a set of words 🤷♂️. (behave today finger ski upon boy assault summer exhaust beauty stereo over). What is this? 🤔
Surely this is dependent on accurately assessing the true probabilities of the outcomes. This then comes down to interpretation and is subjective. A fair coin has a known and constant probability. So on this basis Arb betting would make more sense to me than +ve EV … unless you have an edge in accurately determining the true probabilities of events.
What am I missing ?
How does the software know that a bet is a positive one? From what I understood it needs to compare the odd being paid with the actual odd of it hitting. But how does it know the odd of let's say Barcelona winning? Isn't it subjective?
Where would you get the values for the probability of each outcome?
There is no odds like 1.8 and 4
If there is a 4 odd, the other is ~1.2
Lots of football matches do
ARB is still better because of the fact that it is 100% guaranteed, positive EV may earn more with a high % but if it isn't 100%, then it isn't worth it IMO.
This is why understanding probability is so important. Take his weighted coin example and look up a free propability calculator. weight the outcome to .51 and slowly increase the occurrences. You'll soon see the odds of not being up become so low that it's all but impossible. Now do this again and put in a straight line representing a reasonable arbitrage return and then run the above Sim and input the data for ev and you'll see over time even being below the arbitrage av with ev betting becomes nearly impossible. I haven't watched a lot of his videos so this may change but my only criticism at this point is I don't like the idea of people who don't understand what's going on getting involved in these sorts of things. The ap world is interesting but you can't depend on one skill. It's important to understand the math behind what you do to some degree. I'm not saying become a mathematician but becoming an ap is a lot of work and leaving value whether av or ev on the table isn't something that is done. That said maybe the sports betting world is different but i can't imagine why it would be.
With arbitrage being 100% win or at least 0% loss isn't it much easier to scale. if you took the same example of 1000 flips, but the arbitrage bettor went all-in every time (£3 first flip wins .80. £3.80 2nd flip wins £1 £4.80 3rd flip and so on) he would be way more profitable. EV can't do this as 50% of the time you get reset to zero
Exactly. +EV is all about betting where you know you have an edge. A better example would be if you were using a weighted coin where you knew heads was 52% and tails was 48%. You would always bet heads cause you have an edge. That’s what +EV betting is. It’s not about betting 50/50 odds.
Very interested in this strategy. I am not super familiar with Pinnacle, so I wonder, is it really universally accepted that Pinnacle has the most accurate odds of any Sportsbook? Is there proof of this? That is my main concern about this strategy.
Thank you
I don't get the strat before the EV+ betting. That assumes the outcome is a 50/50 and in real life sports, it isn't 50/50 to begin with. So unless you are coin flipping betting, having a 3:1 bet doesn't matter in the long term, because if the guy who has the 3, looses 99% of the time, you loose, even more so with law of large numbers.
Question 🎉 after a fair bit of learning and understanding the maths and how everything works, I've started to trial pos EV two days ago. I used oddsjam, was super thorough that the odds are reflected and correct. I placed 48 bets, all positive EV (also context, I obviously did it with a small bankroll of £300 so it doesn't affect me in case it doesn't work out). 32 of them are settled now and I'm down by £55. With the pending upcoming bets I still have potential payout of £116/that what I could be up. However, looking at the number of bets already settled and to the ones pending, it looks like the trend is a clear negative.
Now, is that just something that happens quite a bit or was is this just an outliar of many bets gone wrong?. Almost 50 bets seems like a good sample size to take advantage of the positive EV maths so I thought with a large betting pool I shouldn't be down that much, even if I'm unlucky?
Is it possible to know what video I should watch FIRST before all? I keep stopping the video to watch another.... I rather learn left to right, instead of right to left...
how do we know how much should we bet according to the odds?
In how many bookies you need to have to get the best EV ? How many bets you recommend to place in 1 day?
8-10 books, as many bets as you can place.
Let's be real, if multipliers offered are 4 and 1,6 it is not gonna be coinflip. It is favored for latter and by how much determines which of bets is going to be positive EV, if underdog's chances are between 1/4 and 3/8 both are positive EV.
Reason why arbitrage betting is possible in first place is because there is not enough info to rigorously calculate odds and betting sites have to make educated guesses. If it would be that easy to calculate odds every betting site would do so and there never would be any positive EV bets.
Arbitrage betting's idea is that there is no need to guess which of options is positive EV one. All that matters is thah at least one of them is and by multi-option betting it can be ensured that EV for that strategy is positive regardless of odds for actual event.
Positive EV strat requires you to be able to know actual odds for event to be able to recognize which of given bets is positive EV. If your algorithm thinks that event where you could find 4 multiplier for 1 side and only 1,6 for other side was equal odds for each side, it probably is not that divine algorithm. Most ppl who bet on sports think they are doing positive EV betting, but betting sites still keep making moneys.
Hey Shane just thinking of your + EV bettor example with odds 4.00. If the EV = 3, would the bettor not be indifferent between betting his 3 dollars? Factoring the fact that EV returns are still associated with some downside, the bettor would even be more inclined to not risk his $3 if the return is the same as his initial outlay.
The EV represents expected profit not return, so on average he will make $3 in profit (on top of his initial stake back).
@@ShaneHuang88 makes sense. Thanks! Do you personally use oddsjam to pull market data as well?
@@ShaneHuang88 Do you bet on all odds over 2.0? Lets say home-team and draw are above 2.0, then you both on both of these?
@@ShaneHuang88 Please, do you have any advice on how to prevent sports books from knowing you're doing EV other than rounded numbers bets??
it's fantastic to have this
Calculate stake amount @1.90 ,1.83, or 1.85
Good video, But you're having a big problem. The same mistake made by many retail traders, for the EV you can't compare the odds of coin toss 50/50, with the probabilities of matches and you don't have a very large sample of data to know the significance of the probabilities you're having (you can't decide over 1000 or even 5000 data points). So what your thinking contradicts the law of LN.
The opposite, if you have a very close to guaranteed edge, stick with it and bet often.
Quantitative backtests of fundamental economic data can get away somehow with average sample sizes, because they are done on monthly or quarterly data points, and markets are fractal, so you can have positions lasting hours or minutes for EV you backtested in monthly data, also you have similar sets so you can have positions in many connected assets.
For the probability, you use the fair market odds (wisdom of the crowd) or a sharp bookmaker like pinnacle. There is a bit of uncertainty but it isn't significant.
lol u cant beat the wisdom of the market u dum nerd, lol
@@ShaneHuang88 I think you're missing the point of putting odds to your side in a statistically significant, and constant way. By this, you are trying to play the game that these companies want you to play, which is having a directional bet, and use their betting probabilities to calculate yours, which is completely wrong, cause net/net each company is winner. If what you explained is correct, long time betting people should be now rich, cause they played a lot over time on most probable sides)
The only way, is to do arbitrage, cause on aggregate you will have discrepancy, cause there's not a highly efficient centralized betting network, and the nature of what you're betting on is hard to continuously put into correct probabilities. So arbitrage is profitable, but needs a team, many phones.. Etc. Watch the recent video of spencer Cornelia, it confirms my point.
Quick example, selling option contracts in financial markets, has a 90 to 97% probability of success in thousands of trades..(better than sports betting) And even if you apply your idea of EV, that 3% is able to destroy all your account and even more. So quant funds do volatility arbitrage, by selling and buying same option, same strike but different calendars..
Keep doing research, and improving.. Don't listen to haters :)
Nice
@@abboodbl7345 1
Am i missing something?
The EV systems assumes you know the actual probability of the outcomes. How do you KNOW this for sporting events?
How does Oddsjam know if a quote is wrong? And what if the bookie tells you that the quote was wrong and gives you back only the bet money without the profit?
It doesn't really make sense because you don't know what the actual probability is. It is not always 50 50 like in the coin flip example and you don't know what the ground truth is which you need in order to calculate the expected value.
I've tried arbitrage betting before. While I did make some profits, finding winning bets was just too challenging.
I turned $50 into 6k on sports bet when i was 18. Didnt realise i was doing positive ev, i was just milking there promos. Then they banned me.
did you get your profit though?
How did you get your probabilities, sir?
So no matter what the odds are, you just place your bet on the bigger odd (it can be 3 or 5 or 6) and the probability that they go in will be 450 of 1000? Sorry for my english im not sure I understood the video right
I like the way he is making more sense in arbitrage betting and the fact that its less time consuming and more income gotten
I’ve checked out that guy from OddsJam. He’s really good. But unfortunately I don’t think this method is possible unless you actually live in the US since those exchanges are pretty much all US based. Could you confirm if this is true?
If you and @johnberngal would make predictions together, everyone who joins you would be rich haha
I think the example in comparing the arbitrage vs positive ev is flawed. In both examples, profit was gathered as the overall profit per flip multiplied by the number of flips. This may be true for positive ev, but if I was an arbitrage bettor and knew that I was always guaranteed profit I would compound the profits after each round making. On the other hand, positive ev isn't able to do this effectively as one loss would be an instant bankrupt. In the long term, I believe arbitrage is better
What you are describing here is a random walk and eventually you go back to zero, or a martingale type of betting where you compound each bet. You can do a modification like Hull White's model or Asian Exotic Options or something along the lines. This aligns more with Financial Mathematics than Regular Mathematics and it goes really deep. Artibage is known as NO FREE LUNCH (Showning in crypto where artibage existed between countries prime example) but in stocks this is quickly rectfied however in gambling because so many events are happening at once it's impossible to remove that artibage.
You can do some modification to EV to make it better than aribtage but you be devling into 1st order and second order PDEs and this is beyond where you should be.
Scrap what I said before it is a random walk but you have forgotten something you are assuming that the bets can go to infinity, if so then EV becomes a random walk but this is not the case as bets do have a maximum value. Arbitage is better if you assume you cannot attain the maximum , treating the maximum bet as infinity therefore your profits are guarantee however when you hit the maximum betting range then you switch to EV, if your bet goes to infinity than Aribtage is obvious better.
$1 times infinity and 60c times infinity is infinity, however with EV it's 3$ times infinity and 0 times infinity means it's all in one chance.
The comment i made was with regards to the example in the video where number of bets were capped to 1000 and there were no max bets. I do agree with you that this only works while bets are capped, but even then there are ways around the cap. For example, a betting group can be made with the leader providing the arbitrage bet and receiving commission in exchange. I never got into sports betting, but the idea is similar to a stock broker.
While this is true, you get backed off a lot faster from books if you compound your arbs
So Shane, what would you say a good amount to start your bankroll at?
I would say you need at least 2k to start. The more the better up to a certain extent ~ after 10k, there isn't much benefit but anything less than 2k, then there isnt much point to it. Hope it helps :)
@@ShaneHuang88 and how much per every bet ?
Look
I check tens of thousands of odds and arbitrage opportunities never exists. I also check in few betting odds comparison sites and they rarely exist.
He just made these to make his videos interesting.
Who does give $4 and $1.8 in head to head
Also how does a team with $4 odds have 45% percent of winning against $1.8 odds??
In short run or even in long run. Bookies have calculated profits and odds. They got softwares so that their odds don’t go in big margins against other bookies and they don’t let make arbitrage opportunities for people.
Fucking fake for views.
@@prajwalkarki8944 can you explain
Shane explain me. If a Game like : Galatasaray vs Barcelona plays. Why are the odds not 50/50 for each team?? Like your cointoss?? Teams are not equaly STRONG so even if the odds are 7.5 for Galatasaray, 1.36 for Barcelona and 5.25 for a Draw. The EV for Galatasaray is high but still the odds are not 50/50 but more like 75/25... this makes no sence to me so long term u still lose the money they already calculated.
I'm not sure if my way is correct, but I usually try finding the true odds of the bet. This can be done by looking at the odds on an exchange like Betfair. For your example, if Barcelona had back odds of 1.4 and lay odds of 1.5, then the true odds would be 1.45. You can then use this to calculate the implied probability (1/decimal odds)×100. 1/1.45×100= 68.97% probability that Barcelona will win. You can then use this to calculate the EV of the event.
Hope this helps!
As an australian what betting sites do you recommend, and what categories would be ideal for this? Eg. Horse racing, afl, tennis?
Ladbrokes, Tab and sportsbet are the best place to start in addition to betfair
@@ShaneHuang88 come on dont bs ppl, i had my tab account shut down along with marathon coral and will hill
Am from Kenya what's the best site
@@purew.a.s.p6369 use bowlers?
Interesting video one example involves a no risk profit the other higher pay out but the chance of losing,as mathematical principal this is correct,however how many folks have a bankroll big enough to cope with the long losing runs?
If I had a huge bankroll positive EV would be for me as I'm not risk adverse but as I don't have a huge bankroll Arbitrage is the way for me ...
I did a bot once that played the nightingale system for roulet at a few betting sites with their playmoney.
Every time it ran into some long loosing streak causing it to loose all money within a couple of days.
Your concern is exactly why "small risk if your bank roll is large enough" should be avoided. It always happens sooner or later!
@@johanlarsson9805 i started with a 1k bankroll and after placing 5k bets I've made 500ROI
@@johanlarsson9805 i use Kelly staking btw and stake only 1% of my bankroll
Which arbitrage/+EV site would you recommend for those based in Europe?
to be honest i am not too familiar with europe unfortunately :(
What arbitrage sites would you recommend for Australia? Thanks.
@@lukehall2478 can code your own software tbh, msg me
So any odds below 2.0 will be good, that will work out for your mathematics EV to being positive
Hey Shane, thanks for sharing. I am from Australia and looks like not going to get it to work with your new strategy. Is the BonusBank method that you share previously still valid ?
Look
I check tens of thousands of odds and arbitrage opportunities never exists in Australia . I also check in many betting odds comparison sites in Australia and they rarely exist. In long run you always lose, gambling is good for fun. But you can’t put your future and your families in gambling stake. 99.5% of ppl always end up losing.
He just made these to make his videos interesting.
Who does give $4 and $1.8 in head to head
Also how does a team with $4 odds have 45% percent of winning against $1.8 odds??
In short run or even in long run. Bookies have calculated profits and odds. They got softwares so that their odds don’t go in big margins against other bookies and they don’t let make arbitrage opportunities for people.
Fucking fake for views.
@@prajwalkarki8944 Its not fake. Its real. I work in a sports betting company and i am sure this is real. We skew the odds to attract arbitragers to offload risk for us. We skew the odds for a brief 10-20minutes on average and thats all it takes for automated arbitragers to detect the opportunities and execute their trade.
Bookmakers want arbitrage because localised fans are very polarising when it comes to betting. A region of 5million population can be die hard liverpool fans. If you imagine all of them buying liverpool 1X2, the bookmaker will have a very heavy potential loss if liverpool really wins. To prevent heavy losses, they will skew the odds by severely lowering liverpool and increasing the odds for the opponent to attract arbitragers. It is a deliberate act by the bookmakers.
@@3446 can you teach me more
@@prajwalkarki8944
"Who does give $4 and $1.8 in head to head"
It's a hypothetical you muppet. That's the point, make it so obvious that idiots can get the gist of it.
+EV betting seems like regular sports betting with extra steps.
It seems good in the coinflip example because you know the odds are be 50/50, but you can't know for a fact what the odds should be in a match
How do you determine accurately that a book is overpaying a certain outcome?
You are now betting on what the odds should be instead of on your favorite team
Ive been using this in a small scale ( betting around 1-30$ at a time) and some days you lose but at the end of the month i almoat always have 200-300$ win. I dont know how but it works lol.
We have betting exchanges and people still betting on bookmakers that is so sad 😞
Hi Shane, what does mean OddsJam?? Thank you!
You made 40k doing day job... Good for you sir. Isnt this like minimal wage in us?
U forgot the compounding effect you can use in arbitrage, since there is no risk of losing your money.
How do you determine the probability of out come for sports?
what sit do you use for bets?
This statistical analysis ignores variances and streaks A better method of analysis would be using a random walk of expected wins; this would account for, say, sometimes when you a flip a coin, it's heads 8 times in a row.
Hey dude quick question, can I use a vpn if I dont live in USA?
what if it's a draw?
💯 📈
How do they calculate the ev if they do not know the winning chances?
Combine with Marginetale ?
so in toss coin there's 50 / 50, right ? but i think in sports the team with lower odds means the team is stronger than higher odd team. so we can't say it's 50 / 50.
yea but its just a example, ie if ther is a team tht is priced at odds of 2 but u think thy shuld be priced at 1.5 then u have positive ev
@@purew.a.s.p6369 ok so if a team is going to win but i think its going to lose i need to bet on it? Seems like a pretty useless strategy lmao.
That's why you use a coin to decide where to place a bet. But if you want better odds then a coin, do a team research before placing a bet.
but how do you estimate probabilities of the events?
Exactly!! And sure, you can calculate it from the bookies' odds, but these are always mispriced in their favor (negative EV) unless they make a mistake... but how are you going to estimate that probability more accurately than them in order to notice they made a mistake?? Machine learning models from huge piles of historical data??
@@luisfrodriguez6641 you just cannot, too many factors and bookmakers have done their homework and they certainly estimate probabilities better than you plus their little bonus
@@wydadiyoun It is possible but doing it on your own is extremly difficult. Hence the sponsor of this video.
Does odds jam apply for aussie bookies ? Thanks.