The Future of Humanoid Bots From CEO's of NVIDIA, FIGURE, TESLA
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- Опубликовано: 22 апр 2024
- Robotics expert Dr. Scott Walter unpacks all the announcements and demos!
Scott Walter is an Aerospace Engineer with a Ph.D. in Mechanical Engineering and has co-founded two robotics companies
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Author is invested in multiple Humanoid companies and is long TSLA and other stocks at time of original video publish date.
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Herbert
What happened to the Fourier interview, it disappeared off the channel?
Why didn't you show shots of the Figure not giving the apple, picking up trash, doing dishes, and self reviewing it's progress? That's much more advanced than Optimus is right now.
This seems like the worst period.
Even the market are now very unpredictable. Started investing recently when the market prices were a bit high,today I am more than 60% down!
.......
Please educate me, i'm willing to make consultations to improve my situation,
Please how do I find this financial counselor?
I'd love to know this mentor of yours
she often interacts on Telegrams
When I saw her testimonies all over the place I thought it was all made up of stories till I was convinced and gave it a try and honestly I don't regret the move I made because I invested in a big way.
My portfolio has good companies, however it has been stalling this year. I have approximately $600k stagnant in my reserve that needs growth.
Great to get an insiders insight into the cost of bot manufacturing. Very informative.
Herbert, you are doing a great job. You have interviewed a lot of CEO in this space. You are a lot of work advancing technologies. Keep it up, please.
Kitchens are expensive because you have so much in them versus most other rooms. A complexity density. I think the same can be said when comparing cars to bots. That being said, at scale bots will not cost the manufacturer more than $7500 in materials. Would love to see Scott's BOM sheet.
I believe it's time to start presenting examples of components such as actuators, cameras, or robotic hands, etc.
Loves you guys. Thanks for blowing my mind.
Why didn't you show shots of the Figure not giving the apple, picking up trash, doing dishes, and self reviewing it's progress? That's much more advanced than Optimus is right now.
Toyota is now the largest car manufacturer in the world in value, and in the number of units produced! ✌😎✌
The manufacturers are still pricing in a 200% profit margin. Actual cost to manufacture is way less.
People keep saying the workplace is designed for humans and it just isn’t true. It’s designed for people who employ humans. It is designed to be minimally functional for the construction cost and humans are expected to adapt to it.
The key here it seems is reducing the cost of teh actuators, which it seems is quite doable.
BTW, I just made an uploaded to my RUclips channel a video on some more military applications of Bots, in that is another likely driver plus discussed how one might employ agents to call both neural net apps as well as heuristic apps via an architecture based on John Boyd's OODA Loop, Observe, Orient, Decide, and Act.
Now, I wonder how long it will take to have those cost down to $20K. My guess is 10 years. The intense competition between so many robotic companies will certainly help bring the cost of humanoid robots down faster.
Make no mistake, this humanoid robot aren’t for commercialization . They’re for collecting embodied data. This is basic for reasoning using LLM and compression of natural language, AGI needs to know how the world is feels weight and react.
It’s not the cost of manufacture that matters so much, it’s the value to the end user and the business model and the competition that will set the cost to the end user. It maybe that bots aren’t for sale only for rent and the cost to rent may be set buy the task and volume. Competition may drive costs down
There is a lot of missing here towards the chips - supposedly the core module of the Tesla is the same CPU module that is in any Tesla. Not only does that mean Tesla knows how to do it - it is also already a mass product. I actually really wonder how smart the robot HAS to be - because Tesla+Starlink mean uplink to data center. not saying you will not run any AI on it - but it may well be like 1X showed, anything higher thinking and planning runs in the cloud.
Is an actuator using a stepper motor?
I worked on a CNC router we built and needed stepper motors to count so that it made precision cuts.
So, does a robot actuator need to count or is a encoder read the sctuator?
You make a LOT of mistakes here. An Actuator can be using a stepper motor - in fact it is just something that translates movement, you can i.e. use the same setup as a Z axis as actuator - but that has NOTHING to do with position measurement. This is a separate thing (closed loop, encoder) and you can get them - like actually stepper motors - with or without them. Some actuators do not need an encoder as i.e. they just do not need them due to i.e. something like a sensor outside saying stop. I.e. if you use a linear actuator to control i.e. a hip movement - you may well do without the actuator having an encoder, and use a positional encoder on the arm hinge.
absolute encoders are cheaper compared to stepper motors... but that an extra thing to go wrong... who knows..
@@sidb9540 But they may be better. I.e. a stepper motor turns - the encoder on it can give you where it stands (in the 360 degree cycle) - but if the movement is translated i.e. into a linear movement that from one end to the other does have 1000 turns of the stepper - the encoder on the stepper can not tell you where in the 1000 possible positions the linear movement is. An encoder on the linear axis can.
I doubt that Optimus can vacuum floors as efficiently as a Roomba, but Optimus will be more versatile.
Yeah, I'm not impressed by my Roomba, and I'm very confident that there's A LOT of improvements to be done there (I'm a Sen. SW-dev. myself). Regarding the humanoids, my gut-feeling is that they will go somewhat below 10.000k fairly fast. Remember that there sits a motor in virtually every power tool we use. Motors are just iron cores with copper wire and the humanoid market is so huge that they will probably drive even the motors is power tools down 😄
I think there will be a lot of optimization and integration of the actuators into the bot's structure. Instead of making standalone actuators, I would envision the actuators being integrated right into the "bones" of the bot and also contain all the wiring. Probably they will create sub assemblies of hands, legs, arms, head etc. and then just connect them together like Mr. Potato head. I liked the hip assembly of the new Atlas where it looks like two actuators were combined into one housing. It's probably not even necessary to have access panels on the subassemblies since if a joint malfunctions, you can just swap it out with a new or refurbished one.
Neo bot looks very strange to me, doesn't look designed to please the eye, which is important for adoption. Unlike Optimus which looks sleek and ready to go in comparrison.
You need 2x H-100 in order to compute fast enough to interact with the world
Have you looked at Figures latest video upload? You'd be blown away impressed. It shows their bot completing multiple tasks and self assessing how good it did. These guys know about that video and aren't showing it. That's super suspect behavior. They have a biased agenda.
Price for robots will be high as long as there is a long waiting list, which will materialize pretty much immediately. Tesla may bring them down - if they go all in, and repurpose some of their floor space, they can ramp up to a million units per week FAST. And they revamt production now to a more flexible approach - which may result in floor space being able to be reassigned ;) I look forward for the day we run out a milion robots a day.
The robot isn't ready until it can be taught to do someting by the users themselves!
Showing it, correcting it, making it understand the purpose, so it can improve further by itself.
When it can do the job better than you showed it, then It's ready.
After that, you can license out that knowledge to any other robot..
A new human occupation: humanoid teacher!
If you only have to tell it what to do, then It's almost too good!
Have you looked at Figures latest video upload? You'd be blown away impressed. It shows their bot completing multiple tasks and self assessing how good it did. These guys know about that video and aren't showing it. That's super suspect behavior. They have a biased agenda.
Not Actuators this time... made me laugh
How long before having a career will be a luxury to afford a wealthy life style.
UBI for a decent month to month living, and free high education for those that choose to be entertainers, entrepreneurs, inventors, political or corporate influence....
I have my doubts that anyone, governments or corporations, are going to give free money to humans to lay in the sun and go for walkies in the park. They would rather give money to banks and tell them to loan it out to “create jobs” or give it to colleges to “retrain workers” even if the jobs don’t get created and the training goes nowhere. That way, banks and colleges get money and people can claim to be doing something about the problem while police arrest those who get too involved in unrest. UBI, such as it exists will just be a rebranded welfare. Just enough to keep people alive while waiting for something better that never comes.
Eventually the declining birth rates will compensate for the declining job opportunities.
Herbert: The Tesla bot cannot carry a piano, an actuator can be geared to lift the weight of a piano. As Archimedes said, “Give me a lever long enough and a fulcrum on which to place it, and I shall move the world.”
The Eve robot IMHO looks suspiciously like a skinny person in a suit
A mechanical engineer who could not make a facility to produce Optimus for $10,000 needs to be replaced. Optimus will have little place in such a facility except to use the tasks to prove the capability of the robot.
Have you looked at Figures latest video upload? You'd be blown away impressed. It shows their bot completing multiple tasks and self assessing how good it did. These guys know about that video and aren't showing it. That's super suspect behavior. They have a biased agenda.
A curve ball would be if TSLA announces big buy back plan tonight.. throw a bone to the shareholders who are voting in 2 months. that's the only way the stock will turn around right here
Not happening. With the uncertain economy and lots of large factories to build, not to mention the robotaxi, Tesla needs all it's cash. $30B is a ton of money, but for a manufacturing company of this size it's actually not that much. It's roughly the liquidity they need to pay suppliers without going into debt.
Technically they could buy back shares with debt, Apple does that, but not having debt is important in an uncertain economy. Now Tesla can survive a deep recession, or even a depression, and it would be stupid to give that up in exchange for short term gains.
As for the vote, most of it is assured. Many of the largest shareholders told Tesla that they'll vote yes, and a huge number of retail shareholders too. I don't think it's a certainty, but the chances are good.
And ironically the poor stock performance helps, because those who are upset already sold out, and who left are mostly the loyal long term investors, who support Elon.
@andrasbiro3007 I agree with most of your assessment. And I do think it's unlikely they announce a buy back on an earnings call. But with the share price so low. It could make the company a lot of money knowing the share price will explode in the next 5 years
When you get to a really intelligent robot, it is going to be the brains of it. How about a humanoid chauffeur so no one needs a robocar since this thing can drive any car! I don't think that is going to be real cheap. A robot for a factory with limited functionality could be cheap. But who wants cheap for tasks that require intelligence.
Have you looked at Figures latest video upload? You'd be blown away impressed. It shows their bot completing multiple tasks and self assessing how good it did. These guys know about that video and aren't showing it. That's super suspect behavior. They have a biased agenda.
They showed this about a month ago. It could be good. Question is who can make it at scale, and sell it for a profit? see: BREAKING: Figure CEO DROPS New Demo Humanoid Now Talking
@@LeeAlison-dk2ud You are correct Sir. I yield back. I definitely was mistaken and take back my criticism of this channel. Even still, I tend to still believe that they're biased in favor of Tesla overall... Would you not agree?
I would say they are incredibly biased in favor of Tesla. They call themselves Tesla-bulls or maybe uber-bulls. That is one of the things I like about them. So this may not be the best bunch to watch for the down side of Tesla investing.
*$10k* still leaves room for some _profit._
they won't be selling them for the first years, they'll be leasing them, and they'll make huge profits
Bot might be worth 10k profit per quarter! Planned to work 20 hours a day, or so, and do the work of 3 or 4 people. The cost, process, payroll, pension and HR savings to a business are dramatic.
I'll be so rich by 2035😊
Why will you be so rich by 2035? With the price of Bots from 10k to 20k and dozens of competetors its sounds like it will be a low margin business. Maybe you have some plans other than Tesla to get rich with.
@@arseliopereira2541
Bots won't be sold
They'll be leased
Tesla have no competition. Voluminous production of bots will be difficult for everyone else.
@@summerbreeze5115 It doesn't matter if they're leased or sold. There are over a dozen companies trying to make bots today so I'm not sure what you mean by no competition. Not sure why you think only Tesla can produce bots in large volumes. I'm sure they'll be easier to manufacture than cars. Also big AI breakthroughs are copied by others really quickly. In fact it's not clear who will be the leader. It might not be Tesla. But even if it is they won't be alone.
@@arseliopereira2541
Maybe there will be top 3 market leaders (Tesla being one of them) who will bankrupt other bot manufacturers with low cost of production.
Nvidia literally outsources manufacturing.
To whom?
TSMC
@@Meech123
A Chinese company?🗿🤣
Roomba are 💩. You should buy a Neato instead. I have two, one on each floor (I had them for more than 2 years) and they are 100x better than Roomba. Roomba made me lose faith in robots. Neato made me get it back!!
I'm using a Roborock S8 Pro Ultra, and it works almost perfectly. Mops and vacuums, empties the bin, refills the water, and even cleans and dries the mop. Love it.
Before that had a Samsung Powerbot VR9000 for like 10 years. That was good to even if primitive by current standards. I only replaced it when one of it's wheels seized up, and we couldn't fix it.
elon stole dozens of billions of dollars from you guys.
This channel should be renamed ‘Dumber with…’