Adam Dorr Warns Tesla Bot and Humanoids Bigger Than Fire (Tony Seba ReThinkX)
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- Опубликовано: 22 май 2024
- Adam Dorr share shocking research from Tony Seba that warns of the coming major humanoid bot world disruption!
Meet Adam Dorr (Environmental scientist. Technology theorist. Director of Research at RethinkX)
Timestamps
00:00 Introduction
02:07 Human Labor Industry Disruption
22:02 Labor Disruption's Global Impact
31:31 Humanoid Bot Companies Proliferation
40:00 Mutual Acceleration of Foundational Disruptions
49:25 Dominance of Humanoid Robots
Follow Adam on Twitter: @adam_dorr
adamdorr.com
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Disclaimer: All content on this channel should not be construed as professional financial advice or recommendation to buy or sell any securities.
Author is invested in multiple Humanoid companies and is long TSLA and other stocks at time of original video publish date.
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Herbert
I like the idea of a city where all the potholes get fixed, all the litter picked up, every street gets policed. It would be interesting for a robot to draw what it sees.
An interesting anecdote... in 1994 I asked my dad, who was 81 at the time, whether he thought I would see as much change in my lifetime as he had seen in his. He didn't hesitate to answer that, no, he felt pretty definite that I would not see as much change as he had. Zoom forward to today, 30 years later. Wow. Now the thought experiment to zoom forward 30 years from today... will the kids of today see as much change in their lifetimes as we have. I agree with the comment in this video that we are living in such an interesting time.
That’s the Chinese curse ya know.
Gen x imo got the best experience of the changing times.
@Davidhickey2293
Its called 'technological singularly'. It's exponentially cumulative progress depends on population bell curve getting larger. More people = more outliers. Eventually, AI will accelerate the process beyond human abillity to understand the principles behind the technology without ai help. 🙂
😂@@mojoejojo6675😂 You're not wrong!!!😂 We can remember a world without the internet and we had a lot of fun growing up without screens in front of our faces. Now we have all the knowledge of the world at our fingertips. When we retire we'll have robots to take care of us making retirement cheaper. This is everything we ever dreamed of his kids riding bikes and daydreaming!
What a brilliant interview Herbert! Thank you for always being relevant and thought provoking. Keep up the great work!
@1:10:00 In 2013, the number of smartphones in use worldwide reached 1 billion.
By 2015, the number of smartphones in use worldwide had increased to 1.4 billion.
By 2020, the number of smartphones in use worldwide had increased to over 5.2 billion.
So, to answer your question Adam Dorr , it took around 6 years (2007-2013) for the number of smartphones in use worldwide to reach 1 billion after the introduction of the first iPhone in 2007.
I hope we will see the same time intervals with humanoids
Humanoid robots can self replicate though. Production ramp is not linear.
I think of the same thing but with c.d.s.
A year later, they're everywhere.
Your example is way better.. thanks.
The number of smartphones is currently limited by the number of people.
Humanoids, or other robots, aren't limited by that. We each want one, and then there's factories and services.
But humanoids need smartphones too....
@@AdaminChina666 they won’t self replicate the FSD chip. There will be a limiting factor.
This is incredible. Since investing in Tesla and starting my own business, I have read many books about disruptive technologies and competition. Everyone must read these books and they are not ranked in any order. 1) Competitive Strategy by Michael E Porter 2) On Competition by Michael E Porter 3) Innovator's Dillemma by Clayton Christensen 4) Barbarians to Bureaucrats by Lawrence Miller 5) Scale and Scope The Dynamics of Industrial capitalism by Alfred D. Chandler Jr 6) Singularity is Near Ray Kurzweil 7) Competing in the Age of AI by Marco Iansiti & Karim R. Lakhani
These books gave me a tremendous insihgt as to how to run my business and why I can continue to invest in Tesla stock in a midst of all the "fud".
East Coast to West Coast travel. Horse (months to years), car (days to weeks) , airplane (hours).
Communication. Speech, Writing, Telegraph, Short wave, Telephone, Video TV, Cell phones, Internet.
Great discussion.
There’s 8 billion people in world, not just 300 million Yanks.
A lot of work needed just in basics; housing, education, health, food.
Unwind damage we’ve done.
All before the next war.
No joke. Everyone should watch this video.
This time we are the horses ! This is great news! Get out of the harness and do what pleases you and helps the herd. Let the bots do the boring and dangerous. Is this the best news ever?
Love Adam Dorr. The feedback loop of this disruption will accelerate the transition like nothing before.
Incredible…insightful…what a potential future! Thank you Herbert and Adam, and I still maintain Herbert is the Tesla of RUclips information providers!
It may come down to sharing the planets natural resources or sharing armageddon. If we are willing to share we may survive. If not, I fear we will be heading for extinction. A sad thought. So much to look forward to, yet so much to worry about.
Resources and energy are at the moment finite and no robot or AI is going to change that. If fusion becomes scalable and space mining happens then it'll change the forecast some but whether those actually happen is a big what-if.
@@dattajack The convergence of viable robots into the economy means we will, “every nation” be going through all our resources at an ever increasing rate of speed. If we do not share in the prosperity from this acceleration , it is not unreasonable to see dystopia on our horizon.
Robots aren’t limited by needing a gravity well. They will move indusstry into space, where it's an aboundance of solar power, and asteroids to mine. They don't even need FTL to colonize the galaxy.
The Earth will become a pastorial zoo where they keep humans for nostagic reasons.
@@larsnystrom6698 lol
We will be mining asteroids before long. Send the robots out to do this dangerous work!
Your channel has become one my favourites. Thanks Herbert!
wow! mindblown and a little nervous.. great stuff, thank you
Thanks Herbert! This is a very insightful video.
Outstanding discussion. Thank you both.
By far best video over the past year 👍. One word- epic
@1:06:50 The 1 billion mark for Optimus could indeed be reached by 2029/30, but this figure represents only Tesla's contribution. Considering the addition of a dozen US-backed companies and three to four dozen Chinese and Indian firms, the global count of bipedal and wheeled robots, in various forms and applications, might reach 10 to 15 billion by 2035. And if you consider the advancement in GAI, Solid State batteries and CPU/GPU process being built at the 1μ , with cheap energy ⚡ Then Singularity will be part of human history.
I really hope the prediction will be correct. Id love to see robots as a servant to humanity in every asepct of life.
@@tom_skip3523 We are only doing it for the women in our lives so we men can at last enjoy a good beer in total silence - '"Honey Optimus is talking back at me and it is so disrespectful"
Herbert for bringing these experts on to your channel. I learn so much. Thank You so much.
I personally found this interview one of the most thoughtful and helpful clip in helping me understand what might be around the corner. Has made me think we might not destroy ourself in the near future. Might be wrong.
Bestest more good good interview.
Extraordinary. It’s gonna be wild and I can’t wait!
Right up to you lose your job forever.
Best interview.
Ivebeen watcher you for so long but i never commented. Your shows are cery thought ptovoking and informative. Thank you Herbert!
Herbert this was an amazing revelation about the future. When costs of energy and labor go to near zero abundance becomes free. This has happened in the past with the domestication of animals and agriculture. But this will be infinately bigger. People fear unemployment but when prices of goods and services approach zero employment ceases to be necessary. I hope the US government can plan for this.
The government? They can’t plan anything. They’re puppets.
Where will the physical resources for all that abundance come from? It's all finite.
The idea of universal basic income and health care needs to be instituted. People have to think differently, like what do I want to do to make my life fulfilling rather than what work do I need to do to earn the most money to feed my family?
Just add lab grown meats replacing slaughter houses, at > 50% less costs & wastage, & now you're REALLY talking!
@@dattajack The resources are only dependent upon the energy to extract them. With energy prices going to zero abundance is assured. The finite issue isn't relavent when there is free energy.
As soon as the Federal and State governments need to tax robotic labor hours will cause many companies to move out of the US.
Companies biased towards robotic labor will still have a net gain.
Companies can be replaced by robots
It will find a natural equilibrium.
They might be smart enough not to tax robots!
Just tax resource consumption and keep the VAT, which is the only fair kind og tax.
Taxing production is bad. Taxing consumption is good.
Humanoid robots are more likable than other types, the more human-like the better.
Thanks Mate, the sad truth is that no one has a clue, we all react to what happens as it happens and try to analyse it but can’t predict an iota of what is going to unfold in the markets… content creators are like amplifiers, when times are good they affirm it and try to tell you why it’s good and that it’s looking bullish but then all of a sudden the market turns bearish and everyone affirms it again and try to analyse why… it’s so sad that many are so powerless and it's not about guessing the market's next move; it's about playing it smart and steady during trading...managed to grow a nest egg of around 2.3Bitcoin to a decent 19Bitcoin in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Kerrie Farrell, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape...
I appreciate the professionalism and dedication of the team behind Kerrie’s trade signal service...
As a beginner, it's essential for you to have a mentor to keep you accountable..
I've just looked up her full name on my browser and found her webpage without sweat, very much appreciate this..
The fact that i got to learn and earn from her program is everything to me think about it, it's a win win for both ways...
On the grand scheme of things, once you understand the potential of trad!ng, you can bet on it but I think people need the education to fully understand...
The US seems to be lagging in the EV transition , but Europe and China are transitioning quicker .
It's funny; I am at the moment reading Isaac Assimov's Trilogy and the predictions of Mr. Dorr brought to mind the predictions of a psychohistorian from this book. It appears that that kind of prediction is becoming possible and more accurate as a result of technological progression.
No costs to retail values will not go down with most industries!
Remarkable
Scarcity will become scarce.
Scary stuff.
Hi Herbert. Love the show. Thank you. Would you consider going back to a split screen format vs single screen. It's more fun to see both or everyone at the same time. Just my two cents.
Labor disruption is a concern moving forward with ai.
As industries become comfortable with ai laborers, human fill in packet will bee required for disruption in the ai systems, power losses, connectivity issues, solar or human made emp or other crisis events.
So human labor will still be required if not just as overseeing and maintenance, but also as immediate fill in during ai system disruptions.
Adam, that is where I am confused in your prediction of "free electricity." Cost and price are not the same and the energy companies are going to lobby hard to continue to increase the price of energy no matter how cheap it is to them. Can you explain?
I'm all for robots but nothing can replace valuable human life and meaning not merely existing with the aid of robots
People don’t realise that humans are actually the ultimate 3D printer. Robots will also be 3D printers and the most profound aspect of this new technology is that they will be able to build themselves.
The future doesn’t need us.
?!why so sad Batman!?!
@@wildcatmahone-md6me lost my job to BotMan
Wrong! What would be the purpose of robots other than to be put to use by us for us? If we are out of the loop then there’s no point making them.
When I am 80ish I will use robot to help me with stuff for sure !!!
If fewer people are paying into Social Security how will we pay for future retirees? Robots don't pay taxes.
Robot labor will be taxed per. Hour
The robot owners will pay the taxes.
Massive deflation will help. Costs of housing, food, and transport will be a fraction.
Soilent Green.
A second thought I had, is new companies, and small business. As robots are deployed in the workforce, future companies will be limited.
If a business can survive robotic competition it wouldn't be long before they go bankrupt if they can not afford the labor switch.
New companies would find it extremely difficult to start up as the cost of startup capital for a business will triple to become competitive.
So if they are not in business now before ai, they will need vast amounts of capital from investors.
So the majority of business we have now will be the business's of the future. These companies will begin to expand in to many sectors and fields that they would normally not.
Besides dirt, dust, and rust there will be many reaities of nature to overcome before we get there.
This is fascinating. Clearly Adam Dorr has spent a lot of time thinking and studying disruptive transformations. I suppose I'm just skeptical by nature but a basic question springs to mind on hearing him. How do we know humanoid robots will be a disruptive transformation? It's one thing to study such events in the past to discern their common features. It is another to say that something which hasn't happened yet will be disruptive. For humanoid robotics, the main question is: will it work as hoped? Specifically, will humanoid robots actually be able to do almost any task faster, better, cheaper than humans, and do it safely? We certainly have high hopes, but it remains to be seen. This doesn't invalidate Dorr's analysis. It just means it must be applied with some caution. A recent example is self-driving cars, which ten years ago we thought would be ubiquitous today. So far they are not, chiefly because they have yet to reach a level of development which makes them faster, better, cheaper, and safer than human drivers. That these two technologies are related makes the comparison more apt.
A related topic is his brief mention in passing of the move from fossil fuels to solar and wind as another example of disruptive transformation. I think this one is different in kind, not just in degree, because it is being driven by government policy as opposed to huge economic advantages. For this reason, I am one of those skeptics he dismissed about how rapidly the change will come about. The cost of the transition will have to be born by government incentives and non-economic consumer preferences rather than a step change in cost efficiency or utility.
None of this negates Dorr's observations about the characteristics of disruptive technology transformations. We just need to be clear they don't necessarily apply to every technology change.
The Robot doing skills that were formally human skills, you just a think about Casey Jones and driving a railroad spikes, displaced by a machine, same scenario.
Basic question?????? If robots replace human labor where do the people that previously produced human labor earn a living. If they can't earn a living they will not be able to purchase items produced by robots. It is like some type of catch 22!!!!!!!!
I'm not saying I agree but many, including Elon, has stated that as companies make more money (with humanoid robots doing the work) they'll pay more taxes and from these taxes a universal basic income or citizens' income could be paid out by the state. Does it sound "a bit" like socialism then that's because it is, socialism on steroids. 😂 There are quite few countries where debates around universal basic income has been going on for a long time and some are already getting close to implementing various version of it.
UBI aka "robot welfare" so get on and enjoy the ride.
@@wildcatmahone-md6me Right. UBI would be one of the only logical solutions to ensure that our capitalist system can continue to exist. And I hope so, because competition is one of the greatest factors for human progress.
@@tom_skip3523 Robots would have to pay taxes for the governments to afford to pay UBI
My favorite way for people to earn an income when they aren't needed for work is this:
Only humans, not companis, are allowed to own robots. Perhaps limited to, let's say 12.
Companies and the government which need robots has to lease them from the humans owning them.
When this infatuation with humanoids is over, we will get the real optimal six-limbed form. That's 4 limbs in a square with wheels, and 2 arms with 4 finger hands.
The wheels can be turned 90° so that it turns by driving the wheels in a circle.
For maximal flexibility the legs has a knee and a hip joint. The hip is used to widen the base when needed, or squice them together when passing through a tight place. The hip width determines how tight that can be. The wheel can be locked so it can walk in stairs, or terrain. The upper body can tilt and extend, to get better reach.
The hands has two thumbs and two fingers between them. It can form a circle with the fingers, and hold them in a plane.
The heavy battery is at hip height to get better balance, and it uses the hips to place that weight as a counterbalance.
I name this form factor as the "entaur".
A third arm would be "handy", but that looks weird, so no!.
I ment "the Centaur", of course!
Protopia
Protopia is a term used by Kevin Kelly to describe a futuristic society that improves itself through slow but continuous progress. Protopia is often used by Kelly to illustrate the technological progress of and impact on the future society. Wikipedia
Most can’t see the most important moments in life even as they’re passing by.
@alancane1482
Nothing new under the sun. 😋
Very informative. Even though I have 99% of my lifesavings into Tesla stock, I still believe that we cannot overlook Tesla's bot competitors, as they also seem to be making great progress. I'm now thinking about investing in the robotics ETF, since I will not know for sure which robotics companies will come out on top.
Whats your buy in. Does it make to invest now or wait a lil longer
Tesla autonomy dominance in robotaxi and bots is foundational technology that will transform our world for the next 2 decades !
The governments will take advantage of this opportunity to pump inflation, offsetting the reduction in price driven by bots. This could keep prices relatively stable in real terms for the average person, whilst enabling the repayment of government debt.
With prices remaining the same for most but employment opportunities dramatically reducing, or at the least dramatically changing, the future could still be challenging.
I really hope that I'm wrong and that the governments do not screw this up. There is the possibility of everyone having more than enough.
Equivalent GDP: As these "Brighter" technologies drive massive deflation the traditional formula of GDP becomes null and void. No matter how much the goods/services side increases it'll be offset by a reduction in the price of the USD$. If we continue using GDP we'll need to establish a fixed baseline value for the USD$ (say 2030) and stay with it regardless of the inflationary/deflationary pressures we'll face in the future. While this'll remain imperfect it will allow us to understand the expansion of the economy in terms that we've become accustomed to.
What are all those robots going to do? Is the investment in robots necessarily coming from government?
52:00 Like in the Matrix, where humans in the Matrix have single specialisations and jobs, where as the humans who know they are in the Matrix can download any skill they want instantly
I can hear about every tenth word Herbert utters but I can hear almost everything adam says. Turn up your mike herbert!
one has to own robots or robotfactories
Society and nation maximizing the tech and hos much can be adopted requires a lot physical change.
We've been able to automate any and all labor demands that justified the spending. We really would only have a volume of like 5 -10% where temporary labor because set and fixtures are just not worth the cost. Tool & die machinest set up simply doesn't make sense .
This is not where this technology disrupts. We already witnessed an attempt to pass it off on farmers and logistics in Europe where its already micromanaged and cutting edge. Many sectors we've put on a pedestool and said that these are jobs we want are to easily and cheaply replaced and its just a matter of time before a nation does it and then no political or lobby power will protect it from streamlining.
This is a situation where it's already an avalanche of ability to reduce tax funded agencies and institutions 20 & 30 years ago. But the organic and natural systems will eventually fall to it. It just a matter of time.
Everyone better stop the narrative of this just washing dishes or roofing house and digging ditches because that or even self driving is way to expensive and the maintenance burden will be so high it will never be as efficient in these dirty wet corrosive environments
👍
Indubitable
Why not plan for this now instead of waiting until the revolution is upon us? We don't have to do much, just put plans, using the same kind of projections outlined here for how to phase into this new ecosystem of human life.
I'm looking forward to robots like TARS from "Interstellar". Something about a smart-ass robot just appeals to me. lol
Looks like land will be one of the only scarce resources left.
Land on Earth, yes. Not living space overall when most humans live off-world.
Not if precision fermentation is scaled up.
The distinction between jobs and tasks seems redundant to me, if robots are doing all the tasks, there's still no tasks for humans to have jobs doing
When he talks about redeployment of robots being easy and retraining being just a download away… has any AI demonstrated this? They all seem to require long periods of training to learn new skills. This hive mind model where anything a robot learns spreads to all others at the speed allowed by whatever communication bandwidth you are using is great in theory but seems more sci-fi currently than factual.
Dont expect a newborn to perform brain surgery. Remember that these robots will get better in an algorithmic curve. A little patience please.
you dont have to train a new model every time you put AI on a robot... you already have the model, just put it in there, and you can just upload the most recent version to keep it updated, its literally how FSD works already on Tesla vehicles, or even with any software or videogames, everything works that way
Data transfer isn't magic!
@@honkytonk4465 That was my point. Yes.
6:00 There were a lot more pedestrians in the 1900 picture than the 1913 picture, just saying.
@danielstapler4315
What exactly are you trying to 'say'?
Btw.
There are less pedestrians because, the transport got a lot more efficiant and affordable ie. cars replaced the horses.
@@yesno9592 You comment may correct in general but not for that parade. 100 cars with 4 people per car take up a hell of a lot more space than 400 pedestrians. Or 400 cyclists. Cars are not efficient users of space. A lot of people in a lot of cities are in cars because it's thought of or actually is too dangerous and too polluted to be a pedestrian.
The automobile in 1900 was fully capable of replacing the horse drawn carriage, the current humanoid robots are not capable of replacing any job performed today. Will this happen in the future maybe but it is not the state of the art today
If you replace the labor making products who becomes the customer for those products, Elon has mentioned paying people some amount of cash but who is going to pay that out the government with no one to tax?
As long as what you consume, spend and do is based on what you earn it’s your own business. Once every choice you make - every calorie you consume, every ounce of plastic you dispose of, every dollar you spend is funded by the government or other organizations you suddenly have others who feel they have the right to have input into all your choices. No one owns a car? Great. Someone decides whether you are travelling too much. Not buying your own groceries? Healthcare providers are going to be influencing what you eat so they don’t have to spend so much on heart surgeries. Get ready to check your carbon footprint at the end of the month so you can tell if you’ll have power and internet until the next billing cycle kicks in. It’s not the scarcity of resources it’s whether the elites feel you deserve them.
All progress happens faster now than 100 years ago because information exchange is instantaneous and to anyone and everyone, which was not true in say, the early 1900s.
Not only information!
It's easier to build something when you can easily get the components for it, than if you have to build those too.
That's the basis of the industrial revolution.
The same principle worked for the software industry too.
But yes, the Internet has made it so much easier to get information, and the Web is only about 30 years old.
That made an enormous difference!
(The Mosaic browser about 1993, before Netscape, perhaps 1995).
I just don’t understand how it will work. If my employer replaces me is the government going to replace my salary and benefits? If people don’t have an income they don’t buy stuff!
If robots are making everything, there's no human labour involved in making things, so humans don't need paying, therefore everything can become free, so you don't need money to pay for anything, so you don't need a job to earn money... robots complete break the current value based economic model
Universal Basic Income (UBI) paid out of tax on robot labor. I agree that doesn't work in the long term so better become an investor.
When not many people have jobs who is going to purchase the products. Think we are looking at a whole new generation of slavery. I purchased my first new car in 1968. 3680.00. Gas was 35 cents a gallon. A new house cost 12000 .00 My wages were 2.80 per hour. Life was good then. Your guest reminds me of a person who is out of touch. How much is a new car? New home. Prices of everything have skyrocketed. Can’t see any coming down. What has?
That is why Universal Basic Income (UBI) is one of the most logical solutions to ensure that our capitalist system can continue to exist. Providing society with enough money so that there is sufficient demand
Sooooo there are no robots in factories now.
No intelligent robots!
The difference isn't the humanoid form. It's having vision and a brain.
To be able to move is also a thing, but maybe not as important.
As you might have noticed, there are a lot of humans in our factories. That's the symptom of too little automation!
Just for fun, how rapidly could the robot workforce grow? Could Tesla’s Optimus “fleet” expand by 5x annually? If so. Let’s take the end of 2025 as a start date with one million bots produced.
2026 = 5 million
2027 = 25 million
2028 = 125 million
2029 = 625 million
2030 = 3.125 billion
That almost equals the present workforce of 3,3 billion humans and each 24/7 robot can replace about four humans.
can you spell UBI. Soon very important.
UBI analysis for government is not clear???
We are talking about a majority trained with similar machinest skills where individuals moniter and operate which tool & app the needs and demands requires.
Condensed urbanization is irrelevant in places like America.
Like it or not this is not a labor disruption it's a while collar urban stress and challenge its never faced in its modern 150 yr way of life. What farmers dealt with now huts the city's..logistics simply qu quadruples it doesn't eliminate it adds to the ability to spread out developing territory we neverthe imagined. Building fission power plants in desert for example.
Or how little Austin TX can become new silicon in a decade. Less old world obstacles in the way .
Amazon is new paradigm model both in the company and the south American forest under neath archeology lays the self sufficient sustainable example of medium density.
Taking everything to the ppl .
1900s structuralism needs and demands was a very anomalous stepping stone period of time .
Roughly 300 years ago the foresight was very clear about what America was founding and its arbitrary example was designed with it in mind even to the point the Amish bail on the american experiment.
The problem is in urbanization and agencies and institutions that aren't used to such change now that 1800s had to force people off the farms to move in to neet factory demands that turned into office occupation and hybridization of sociopolitical & economic systems to deal with condensed living.
But now these are ways of life that really was never the principle goals but was necessary. Places like Japan geologically have no choice but build up and down more centralized while China will do it more based on its top down rule.
But in uk separatist pilgrim puritan classical American christian mri Machine sir bacon Line of thought simulating willingness to fund unseen realms was always about soul agency free will inertia frame of reference to be fruitful and multiple becoming kings of own castle overcoming handicaps useing tech to eradicate needs and demands that drive even good men to do bad things in concert with strop pragmatic common sense objectivism educated into soul agency .
As long we get the urban challenges to spread out medium density for better quality to develop the middle of no where america where you now can operate business that only major city's could support.
This quadruple logistics, local ownership of ai saftey grids fuse box like multi skillset trained mature youth entering workforce at younger ages your simply adding autonomous help to already existing systems.
IT took 70 yrs to rip trucking & logistics out of cold dead hands of Jimmy Hoffa to become a sub contract out skill & trade owner operators industry.
Getting buyer seller investors ,suppliers and customers under one roof in one domain is to aid the private sector individual ability to sub contract and become self sufficient owner operators
The more objectivly mature society' is the more access to tech and more vetting it's borders becomes .
You can only hold balance and counter defende measures in this bottom up local ownership of infrastructure.
Anything else will find behind other nations or end in civil unrest.
What organizational structures HAVE TO BE CREATED so that DEMOCRATIC SYSTEMS WILL SPEED UP AND ALLOW INNOVATION IN ALL THE DISCUSSED SEGMENTS?
Be second in place is losing the future independence.
Unitree g1 for $16000?!
I don't understand Elon's concerns about population declines when Tesla could be a leader in making this economic concern no longer an issue.
Reality will imitate the arts. The world will become like Star Wars, where robots fight in wars and the capable evil man can incinerate several planets at a time.
I can see a plumber takes a robot to the “job” to help perform a “task”.
The Avalanche is coming;
the pebbles don't get a vote now.
Stop scaring just make them come as fast as possible so I just don’t have work tomorrow
Labor should be valuable, labor for the sake of labor just to give someone a paycheck, is asinine.
There are countries out there where workers will punch a clock for eight hours and sit there all day.
@@alancane1482What about you talking about countries out there, I’ve been there, in Australia in the banking industry, and it’s happening right here right now. Most of us would come in to work and do nothing of any value most of the time and go home afterwords. It was / is a sheltered work shop for potentially malignant members of the society best kept busy in order to minimise damage to the overall society. Even more profound in the universities.
no, labor should be worthless, if labor is valuable it means its scarce, if labor is worthless, everything is free, no need for money anymore, everyone can have anything they want (except certain things like antimatter, nuclear bombs, the organs of your crush, etc)
Cost of materials keeps cheap junk in play.
Human's positive emotion has been helpful in the past but now Negative Emotion is so dominating and it's dangerous. Hence, FSD & Optimus will be so beneficial & transformative in a good way=Tesla/T$LA all the way!!
The negative emotions / reporting has been the vanguard of the dying old guard.
They are miles off in their predictions about food, and cows being phased out.
About half of what was said is just a repeat of his interview on John's channel yesterday.
It’s all based on their blog post. The interviewers are getting insights, but based on same base material.
So, the question is how many shares of Tesla does Adam own based on his Tesla Bot predictions.
An AI utopia poses a risk to humanity in that by obviating the need to learn and practice the skills we employ today to supply and maintain civilization, society would be helpless to run things if AI quit serving us.
One robot working nonstop would replace three or four human employees. Maybe even more.
That’s true. I have to admit, out of an eight hour day, I probably do three hours real work! The rest is surfing the Internet and talking to coworkers. Lol.
@@troyelam8978I totally agree with what you are saying. There have been many studies claiming that, one of them being from CSIRO. This new paradigm will expose it. Once that happens there will be a great disruption and turmoil in the status quo.
@@troyelam8978 I want your job mate
If a tele-operated humanoid can't fold a shirt in a practical manner, why would you think an AI one could?
2024 capability is not what you should focus on, 2040 capability is what will change the world
We are ccurently in the nursery phase of technology. All the great inventions that have changed the world took a long time to figure out. As our progress is faster and faster these days, it will only take 10 years instead of 30 years
@@tom_skip3523 In ten years do you want your surgen to be weilding surgical tools with clumbsy humanlike hands or will the AI control small precise tools directly?
Will a smart nail technician be a humanoid using clumbsy hands? Or will AI control tools directly?
Will your Roomba be any smarter or or should a humanoid push a mop?
Will a smart painting robot paint your house or will a humanoid have to climb a ladder?
Should a humanoid in a factory have batteries and legs if it just sits in one place packing widgets or loading parts into a machine?
Should the future forklift drive itself or have a seat and steering wheel? What about "the best part is no part" and "first principles" ?!?!?
@@zaphodbeeblebrox2817 This is the normal debate between narrow porpuse vs multi porpuse robots. In my opinion, both sides are completely valid and there are things where specialized robots make more sense. I also have a self-learning robot mower at home. But it will never be the case that there will be a specific robot for every tiny task. That would not be economical. I prefer a robot that can clear the table, put things in the dishwasher and then go down one floor and do the laundry without needing 3 different robots. There are definetly use cases for both types.
@@zaphodbeeblebrox2817 I also believe that humanoid robots are a kind of intermediate technology that will be very popular for the next 20 years. There are still an incredible number of use cases because not all factories or homes are highly automated. This is a change that is constantly being driven forward. And at some point there will be more and more specific robots. But the current move towards humanoids is definitely the right one. One does not exclude the other.
1:10:50 are you sure u guys know what you're talkingabout? Ending the talk saying robotics are "maybe bigger than AI". This isn't just a bipedal humanoid with a bunch of actuators. AI is the whole ass point of this, computer vision, reasoning and spatial awareness etc. This IS AI you cant just think of language models as AI just because you dabbled with chatGPT.
Human nauture won't allow equality. Someone alwaus wants to be better than the other. If I have a 2 storey house my neighbor wants a bigger better house.
Mr. Dorr, speaking of the internet, spend a few more dollars on some bandwidth.
Seriously? This guy is smoking some good Gunja. He is so positive that companies are going to reap those labor cost savings and somehow it is going to benefit the ordinary now unemployed worker? Are you kidding? These companies will be ringing their hands together with the huge profits and maybe a slight reduction in the price of the consumer. Then when ordinary people are broke( aka unemployed) then those same greedy slobs will be crying since nobody can afford that product. The only thing people will be able to afford us protein manipulated food products the Government will put out so who ever is still alive will live on those subsidized handouts. Also please send me some of that Gunja he was smoking. I need to be ready when those same fuckin robots comes for me.
Wrong. It's not like fire, etc. The birth of machine life is as important as the birth of biological life.
So does this mean that the “demographic dividend“ is no longer a prerequisite to prosperity. In fact having too many “horses” may be a burden. Thus China is heading the right way by replacing retirees with humanoids and the demographic decline is actually an advantage. In this scheme of things India has the problem of too many “horses” as you call the displacement of humans by humanoids.
Do you think that in 2035 with the advent of AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) and ASI (Super Artificial Intelligence) they will introduce universal basic income!? a subsidy!? will there be free will!? an era of abundance will begin!? the robot's intellectual and motor capabilities have already surpassed the average human and before 2035 there is talk of them surpassing those of any human and then again those of any human combined! regarding both body and mind! answer me please...
Big oil and the powers that be have been thwarting technological advancements before that could have revolutionized the energy sector. Honestly, I’m surprised they haven’t taken noticeable measures yet to thwart Elon’s efforts to advance electric cars and solar.
Doesn't Big Oil have their fingers in the pie that is Electric Vehicles? How is that electricity created that those cars use?
@@ShibsKensei Eventually Oil will be replaced by renewable energy, primarily from solar, stored in batteries. At least that’s Elon’s plan.
Big oil, dead man walking.
Oil is need for plastic and fertilizer. It will survive but less so as fuel.