This was one of your most important videos Sam. The foundation of energy production is changing, and very few understand the enormous societal benefit probabilities coming during the next seven years. Well done - RESPECT!
What benefits exactly? Fossil fuels have brought the whole world into a better living situation. Better crop growth, less malnutrition, better production, cheaper energy. Everything you see around you, your cars, computers, clothes, food, plastics, etc, are derived from fossil fuels. So what exactly will be the enormous societal benefits in the next seven years? Energy will be more expensive once government stops supporting Green energy, people in developing nations will suffer and none of this has any real proven reason to take place.
When Nuclear was first being rolled out the thinkers were saying that the cost of electricity would be so low the supply would not need to be metered. We all know how that worked out. There is no free lunch, Sam.
Oil companies made sure that nuclear never took off. They got the environmentalist to do their job for them. It's different with solar because your roof won't cause a nuclear meltdown.
Renewables will never be free, but their prices have been dropping significantly over the last 20 years. After the initial costs are recovered from energy sold, then there are maintenance costs and replacement costs every 30 years, which are negligible when compared to how much energy is produced. The beauty of renewables is that once the initial investment has been made, the source of the energy production itself is free, unlike oil, which needs to be drilled/refined, and transported and coal needs to be dug, and transported. Calculations are done to compare the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) and right NOW, the cheapest is onshore wind, then solar, then offshore wind. Renewables are the future.
Discovered Tony Seba in 2016, which led me to TSLA. Took a test drive (it's free), was so blown over, I bought my daughter some shares. So interesting to see it all start to unfold as Tony predicted. Next thing is Precision Fermentation!
@@markumbers5362 percision ferments will have to join the que, I have been cooking "meat tasting" dishes using mushrooms for ages. Tough to tell the difference.
Tony Seba’s presentations were very influential for me too. Very excited that this disruption is gathering steam. I can’t afford an EV yet, but my lawn mower and power tools have been disrupted 😊
I have battery powered weed whacker and leaf blower... Works very well, it's quiet and I just plug in the battery to recharge. I can't actually imagine using... what, gasoline?
All my tools, drills, lawn mower are electric. And im so happy with them. Cant afford ev yet so i will just wait till it gets way cheaper in 5 years time. I remember my rich friends playing samsung or iphone and im just watching on the side during early days of smartphone. Now i was able to buy so cheap smartphone brands anywhere. Patience is important and time will come for us to get these cheaper ev soon.
Hello Sam, I started watching this following the headline, my intention was to look for holes in the EV argument, yes I am a EV/climate sceptic. That stopped when you said why you were in Thailand. I mentioned on an earlier video, I lost my wife to Cancer 3 years ago. Your wife's health is far more important than any EV discussion, I truly hope whatever treatment she is having is successful. Best wishes to both of you.
You don't stop being a skeptic out of sympathy for cancer, it has to be because of what is said, of the evidence. If that isn't enough for you then remember that ICE is a technology of the industrial revolution. Isnt it time we move on? When the first cars appeared in the early 1900s, there were a lot of skeptics too and it disrupted a huge sector of horse related jobs ranging from breeding, feeding, sheltering, equipment and cart manufacturing. No need to worry, it will work out in the end.
Viking, thank you for spreading the joy, the love, the great forward looking optimism. I agree with your bright appraisal for our future! Love/light for your wive’s plight.😢❤
RUclips channel NOW YOU KNOW has been saying all of this for years now. In fact they have an excellent mini series sort of documentary that describes every step of how and why the unfolding of all of these events will happen and go into great detail on the changes in society and city layouts. It's fascinating.
I used to watch them for the first two or three years. Then they started getting quite negative and began to think they knew better than Tesla what to do. Hubris in the extreme, I unsubscribed. You're right about how good their thoughts on future transport were though, that was really well done.
Living in Thailand and having CLL I carried out intravenous vitamin C treatments about 3 years ago. I am not sure whether or not this was a cure but my blood count was normal sometime after the treatment. My GP gave me 10 years from diagnosis and it’s been 15 years now and blood count is still normal. That treatment was with Absolute Health in Chiang Mai with Dr Wittawatt. Of course good diet helps alao I wish you and wife the best in your endeavour here in Thailand.
@@munggebrot So who pays for the cost of building the generators and also the decommissioning, would that be you via taxes, rather than through the cost of the electricity . Maybe other countries add these costs to the price of generation
Love Tony Seba. I first posted his stuff to my Facebook friends in 2017. People seeing my post still can't seem to wrap their heads around the extent of the change coming between now and 2030.
Yet another great video Sam. Was nice meeting you at fully charged Sydney. From the 1970s I have been experimenting with power adoption like fitting a fan to a car alternator to give us power to our static caravan but that was in the UK but now I live in Australia it's so much easier 9 years ago we fitted solar panels and I can assure they have paid for themselves many times over now I have a battery as well. It keeps power bills to a minimum. We do hope the cancer treatment is working well. Keep smiling everyone
I am interested in much deeper dives into cars as a service. How many subscriptions per robotaxi? How many miles before you get throttled in a month. Can they replace taxis and Uber? Yes. Will they displace more cars in cities? Sure. What happens at thanksgiving and Xmass when everyone suddenly wants to drive at the same time? How much overcapacity is going to just sit around at other times? Do they actually replace cars or just provide virtual cars for the peasantry? Hopefully no homeless, the smell would be bad and the San Francisco ones will pee and poop in the car.
This guy's a paid propagandist, but the banks that own western governments love him, so expect his channel to grow larger. The least expensive functioning EV in my area of Minnesota is a 2017 Tesla Model S 100D for $39,900. The least expensive functional ICE car is 33X times cheaper. The difference in price will have to be borrowed from a bank, which produces nothing but misery and debt. The conversion to EVs is another large step down the path to rentier serfdom hell. "You will own nothing, and you will be happy" -The WEF
An instant robotaxi for everyone for 100 bucks per month? Very very hard to believe for me, this kind of service must be considerably more expensive than this.
@@flubalubaful if you are in a rural area that may be the case but Uber usually only takes between 4-12 minutes to get a ride. Once the service scales wait times will be insignificant.
Brilliant video. He's spot on, cars spend 99% of their life on the driveway, and if a robo taxi can pick my up from the pub let's do it! Probably worth noting that my grandmother was born in 1896, in London ,there were no cars then.
In my country, Uber is already significantly lower than owning an automobile, a trip in the city is usually less than 7-8 USD, I don’t see the new car market crashing. I don’t think consumers are rational when buying cars, this is the reason why you can sell a 1k purse or a 300 sneaker.
Agree. Tony and Peter Zeihan are my preferred fortune tellers, because they can see all the pieces accurately, and they draw supremely accurate conclusions.
Tesla dojo and AI are going to make stop signs and traffic lights obsolete when cars can see each other and talk to each other. There’s no need for stoplights stop signs anymore and it’s gonna help traffic flow so much faster and better and no one’s talking about it.
I disagree. FSD cars can stop and go when the other cars are in the camera range. But the traffic flow is a different story. The traffic lights, stop signs, and yield signs ..etc .. are needed, in my opinion.
I think Teslas already there.. I mean their drivers barely stop and have almost been ran over by the terrible Tesla drivers. Most times I see a crash a Tesla is involved 😂🎉
I've spent a good majority of my life working on traditional fuel powered vehicles and equipment and it has been frustrating to say the least ' I have long awaited a time like this although I'm still somewhat concerned with the high tech rather than analog systems
I live in Thailand (YT'r as well;) and just bought a car, not a new car, an older car for say 3 years. That's my estimate of how long it will be before EV production in Thailand ramps up & tax breaks/lower costs plus increased charging infrastructure. One can already drive from Chiang Mai to Phuket with an EV & easily charge up along the way. 3 years from now, EV's like BYD Seagull (11K usd/400km range) will be the norm and charging points literally everywhere. Will miss the roar of a V8, just not the fumes (nor the 2000 moving parts vs EV's avg 20;) Very best wishes to you and your wife and may you charge ahead together well into the future. STL
I've been following Tony and this stuff since 2017 and I find the speed breathtaking. I regularly talk to folks on the street who still think EVs are just nice looking golf carts. They are completely unprepared for the changes they will see. From their perspective it will appear to have come out of nowhere.
I talk to my friends they are dismissive of EVs. I say "get some TSLA." They say "the cooperation is coming" They say "solar and wind are fails because the sun does not always shine and the wind does not always blow". In 3 to 4 years people will be wandering around with blank faces as they see what was once their world falling away.
The cost of coal, petrol, natural gas are pretty much next to nothing now. The high costs are largely in taxes. What will SWB's version of this look like?
In Australia the cost of Powerwall storage is $1/Wh. I paid $82K for a Tesla Model 3 LR with an 82kWh battery. That means I paid market value for the battery and Tesla threw in a free car 🤔 Once VTG/VTG becomes available I will store my solar energy in my car for night time use and sell the excess back to the grid. The car will pay for itself over time. My point: there are other use cases for EVs beyond transport. That’s why demand won’t collapse.
@@theairstig9164 I don't care about warranty. I only use 7% of the energy each day and keep my battery between 40-60% SOC. So there is plenty of headroom for VTH without causing degradation. And if Telsa doesn't enable it then I will buy my next EV from a manufacturer who does. I have no special allegiance to Tesla.
Why would you buy a car when you can get a car ride for less than your insurance per year? As long as you live near a city and there are ride services available, it would be a huge waste of money to spend it on car that sits in your garage 95% of the time.
I think there is a problem with the no personal ownership of cars idea. Perhaps it would make sense for folks in large urban areas who have access to many forms of public transportation. But for those of us in small towns or rural areas, I don't think it would work. There would not be enough demand to support a fleet of vehicles and if there or only a few or they had to travel a long way for a single customer, it would cost a lot more than a couple of hundred dollars a month.
I've been watching Tony Seba since 2010. Whenever I'd get really down about climate change, I'd cheer myself up with a Tony Seba video or book. By ordinary standards for tech predictions, namely completely and consistently wrong, Tony Seba's predictions have been 100% correct, amazingly so FSD may fall outside the Seba technology disruption framework, or it may not. It's a tough nut to crack, but we will get it done in a decade. That will blow the top off the industry even if we make a 100% transition to EVs which almost certainly will. It will blow the top off an inudstry that's already had its top blown off by EVs. FSD is another disruption, connected to EVs but really separate from it. Read Adam Dorr's excellent new book BRIGHTER.
Imagine if it was in just 5 years: just when the few survivors of the EV transition manage to get some profits to pay for the massive debts they contracted to manage it, suddenly, the demand for ANY car without FSD collapses, far faster than the ICE age ended. I'm personally amazed that NO ONE contracted Tesla yet to install their hardware 4 on their own cars. They are getting extremely wrong/incompetent by just not looking/believing in obvious and widely available industry disrupting facts twice in just a decade and a half. Speak about mindblowing incompetence.
The only fly, I can see in the ointment is all the potholes here in the UK. You would have to be Maverick to avoid the bloody things. Honestly, some of them look like opencast mines
Clear and to the point Sam. Thanks as always. Hope your wife recovers quickly. Still would love to hear you do a comparison of Australia and say Germany in terms of solar. It seems a no brainer for Aussies. Is that the same in European countries where there may not be near the same amount of sun. Saw this new tech, solar fencing. Could be interesting.
I like your reminder about the benefits of car sharing! I have a small EV that cannot go on many of the rough roads near where I live. I would love to have an AWD EV with better clearance, but cannot afford one. I would love to be able to rent one when needed. I don't need a car everyday or even every week. A couple of years ago I considered listing my car on TURO, but the app would not let me charge enough to cover my costs. It is too bad we don't have better ways to share other things too, such as tools, and recreational equipment.
Hi Viking fron Spain. The question is when, how many battery plants, and production will Be ready in the next 36 monts in Europe and Us? , and When will Be ready FSD in Europe?
Tony Seba is like secret information... Have been watching him for years. (Edit: it almost seems like some companies watched Tony Seba and decided to make it come true. They set their goal to what Tony predicted - why?, because it was a good aspirational goal, and actually it turned out to be an achievable prediction so why not? Also such a thing keeps hope alive when people see the future is actually coming true.)
It appears that none of the Japanese legacy auto makers have been watching Tony Seba, as they are at least 5-10 years behind Tesla & the Chinese EV makers. Japan is at serious risk of losing its entire auto industry, and that would lead to their economic collapse.
There are three major hurdles for vehicle electrification: Firstly, the minerals required to manufacture them don't exist in sufficient abundance. EV production will hit a brick wall until better battery technology arrives. Secondly, in order to charge all these EVs we'll have to generate more than twice as much electricity as we do now. Jokes like wind turbines and solar panels cannot fill that gap and once again they'd need batteries to make grids stable. Such battery technology does not exist yet. Lastly, we'll need to replace or overlay the entire power grid to support all this additional power demand. Large high voltage transformers have a long backorder, of approximately 30 years! So no. It's not going to happen.
Sam, you said in the video that you would put a link to the podcast in the description but I can’t find it. And a search on RUclips didn’t come up with anything either
Hey Sam, Wishing your wife great success with her treatment - hang in there, my friend. Excellent report as usual, and I agree with Tony's insight. Predictions are interesting, but the facts are undeniable. All the best to you and your family.
Auto Parts "Stores" probably can, but might not see the advantage of, adding things like D-I-Y Solar, Wind, & Micro Hydro Power Products, for sale, as well as EVSE's (Level 1 & Level 2 EV Chargers)! Other ideas might be good for them, too! Like Home Energy Battery Storage Systems!
Yes of course you're right. All car manufacturer's CEO's are completely oblivious to what the competition is doing. REALLY! They know with more information and understanding than the likes of Tony Seba what to do.
I think some may know, but what can they do? They are hired to push the business forward, make profits with the existing paradigm. But its too late! They must be just shaking their heads wondering why they ever accepted the job at the worst possible time in history for ICE vehicles. I wonder if GM/Ford/Stellantis might consider licensing the Tesla brad/technology and start making Teslas?
It's Tony Seba's prediction vs Jevon's Paradox. With cheaper transportation, more it will be personally utilized. The only problem with subscription service is if the ride charged individually, per person, families will own a vehicle I think due to Jevon's Paradox. Individuals will most likely utilize the Robotaxi.
One problem… China dominates battery production Which encompasses the entire supply chain from raw materials to cell manufacturing, and its influence extends globally. This position gives China a strategic advantage in the growing market for electric vehicles and renewable energy storage solutions.
I’ve been driving for two weeks in the West and Southwest of the US. IN California, you see lots of Teslas; only a few in other states. Everywhere, however, lots of brand new, large, expensive ICE’s that are likely to remain on the road for ten or fifteen years. I’ve also seen hundreds of gas stations, all busy in spite of the high fuel prices. As for charging stations, maybe six or seven. It seems to me that the transition - if it happens - will take a lot longer than you say.
Tesla are far in the lead to a generalised solution. Others can operate in a limited way but they are all super expensive to scale. The point is to massively undercut the cost of a taxi ride with a human driver, not burn money running demonstration services at insanely greater cost.
Sam, I just heard Wisconsin farmers saying that windmills have a low frequency (inaudible - 40 Hz) noise that makes cows not give milk and I never hear about bird strikes which I think are significant. What are your comments?
I remember 4 years ago (around August 2019) when I told my friend Tesla would sell 2 million vehicles in 2023. They had just done 245k..(2018) . i told them 2027 there would be very few new gas car sales... I had just watched Tony Seba... my mind was blown but I was convinced. My friend told me they dont know anyone who wants an EV and that they are too expensive for most people. I told them about cost declines and they thought i was insane for thinking costs would go down so much so fast... well... here we are and Tesla just might do 2m... and so many people are buying EVs.
I wonder what percentage of the market will move to TAAS (Transportation as a Service) vs the number who find the overhead objectionable (ordering, waiting for delivery [even if automated], hygiene and cleaning issues, concern about damage done by others blamed on the last user, etc. Most budget strapped consumers in urban areas will move to this but I wonder about the suburbs and more affluent consumers.
6.5 years. According to ourworld in data - world energy profile; it still is about 80% fossil fuel and 10% nuclear, 8% hydro (no real change over 20 years) Solar 1-2% Wind 2-3% after 20 years of expansion.The idea of shifting 80% of the energy consumption onto the grid clealy would suggest you must increase the 20% existing non fossil fuel by 5x - While you might add to those; renewables won't grow to even 25% in 6.5 years.
Tony Seba was absolutely correct in his long-term predictions. I was skeptical about some of his numbers, but he hit the nail on the head on almost every single point.
I just can't afford these EV's currently, especially as a "second" car (Chevy Bolt) - I don't believe most people can either. It's not that it's not a good idea, but the buy in price is just too high. There are also a lot of unknows about used EV's as well. How long will the battery last? The cost to replace a Model 3 battery is over $15K - which would put me back into a very economical ICE car, they are just too expensive.
You may have overshot the mark. EV's will continue to get cheaper as more competition to Tesla comes out and technology advances.There is also the used car market. My 2015 MS 70D was 94K as a new car. I picked it up for 30K last year. One can buy a used Model 3 for 25K all day long, practically everywhere. Shops are replacing cells at 500 bucks a section already. you dont need to replace the entire battery. Replace the section that went bad. EV's are very affordable right now. I can get a newer Model 3 for less than an Accord and never pay for gas again. That makes it significantly cheaper to operate than the Honda, which is a really good car. Type in used Model 3 for under 30K and see how many pull up. I pulled up several hundred.
@rko1914 I have been looking every day since January, the cheapest model 3 RWD with 100K miles is still over $30K, and it's at 8% interest - I haven't seen anything for $25 K yet. I have noticed when i do a VIN search, some of the Teslas have more than 20 different owners (!) I have never seen anything like this before
The auto part stores are going to be in serious trouble. EV's only need a fraction of replacement parts that you have with ICE's. You will need to replace tires, windshield wipers, maybe a few other parts but no oil changes, brake pads (rarely if at all), exhaust systems, etc.
This what I find so incredibly STUPID about Toyota and to a large extent, the Japanese, talking about a Hydrogen powered industrial combustion engine as a counter to electric vehicles. Apart from the logistics of producing and distributing Hydrogen, and the fact that it is so insanely volatile, you would STILL need all the belts, gears, lubricants, gaskets and seals, pumps, and all manner of other parts which will NOT be needed by electric vehicles. For Toyota and the Japanese to think that a Hydrogen internal combustion engine is a good idea is just, I am sorry to be so harsh, NEXT LEVEL STUPID !
Will take a while to convert the whole fleet atleast till the mid 40s. New car sales are harldly 60 million , with this disruption total sales will b in the 50 m range and total global vehicle fleet is 1.5 billion (1500 million).
And attended parking lots, and auto dealerships, and road construction/maintenance, and car washes, and warehouses for all the stuff for all the foregoing, and and ... when you start looking around you realize that a large fraction of everything is arranged around CARS.
@@alan2102X, Estimates are that between 50 to 70% of all jobs in Japan are directly or indirectly related to the automotive industry. Their entire economy could collapse.
10:00 "...annual auto sales will drop by 75%...": I think they should. But if they "would" they "would have by now". The "transportation as a service" would remove all those vehicles from people's driveways. But without robo-drivers transportation as a service can't work. If it could, it would be working right now...and have been working for my whole lifetime (80 years). To the contrary, taxis and busses have virtually gone out of existence (as alternatives to my travel needs) in my lifetime.
Sam: Cybertruck will put another consideration on the table in evaluating when people weigh the decision to buy transportation as a service or actually owning the vehicle outright. The Cybertruck will bring another entire dimension to vehicle safety. This truck will be TOUGH. IF/when a collision occurs, having a Cybertruck around you will stack the deck in your favor because virtually any other vehicle you could possibly collide with will crumble in such a mechanical "contest". The grabber is that no one can know when/if you will need this extra safety margin which weighs, in my mind, as a pivotal factor for purchasing a Cybertruck outright. The Fleet Mode option could turn the asset into a net revenue producer anyway which must also be considered. For those that can pony up the purchase price an FSD Cybertruck that can be fleet enabled is the ultimate in convenience and personal safety while being financially responsible as the truck should literally pay for itself and return a not inconsiderable net yield.
News from Scotland, for the 1st time, Jan, Feb, and March, saw wind overtake gas power. Also, I heard a rumour that each and every large turbine is to be accessorised with its own battery in the country. Wow.
Economies of scale will ensure that power generation will always be grid-scale. Only subsidies allow homes to generate, but the cost is 5 times that of grid scale
I mean if we switch from fuel base trucks to eletric trucks (assuming they can make one) that lowers the price of transport - thus more localization can happen. Let alone means cheaper prices across the board. Alos been a big shift from wanting to drives in the EU to more bike + walking. I think some cities in the US are also seeing the light that it might be better to switch over to the same idea. I mean if that happen that be what, another 16k in every pocket (500-1k$ for an Ebike) + another 50 to 100$ in shopping as well per month.
He’s referring to the great reset - own nothing and be happy mantra, 75% drop in car sales and thus ownership because it’s deliberately made prohibitive - 15 minute cities and use a robo taxi instead anyone?
$100 a month is far too low, unless you are self driving a small, old car for 3 days per month. One cannot ignore the labour costs and profit involved with a subscription model, for daily use it wouldn't work.
I wish it was true about renewables. The dunkelflaute in Europe this year has shown the risks of intermittent power. Until grid systems are able to store, say, a week's renewable output cheaply, they will need to keep a fleet of non-renewable generators on standby - at huge cost. It's like car rental in the US: impressively cheap until the insurance cost is added.
You’re right, storage will be a challenge, It’s unlikely batters are going to be scaleable and it’s not clear that hydrogen will fill the gap either. Maybe 80/90% renewable in Europe, it will take some time to drive out that last rump of fossil fuels.
I think most cars, that have regular maintenance, are easily good for 200-300k miles. Not km but miles. I have friends with 10 year old Chevy’s, not the most reliable, with 250k on the odometer. My latest Honda is 10 years old and had 150k miles on it when I got it. I didn’t think twice about it. I figure I’ll get another 150k out of it before anything major needs to be fixed.
Nope. It’ll be unsupported in under five years as the manufacturers and suppliers of ICE equipment see their markets disappear. They won’t stay open to keep your Honda supplied with parts😂
Just a few thoughts for discussion about how things may evolve in the next couple of decades: People will continue to use existing fleets of ICE vehicles through their full life cycles, so there is not going to be an abrupt transition, but a rather more gradual one. Battery production is going to be a bottleneck that BEV production has to pass. through. The Chevy Bolt teaches a lesson on that. We will not accept battery fires at anywhere near the rates that ICE vehicles burn up, so batteries are going to have to be perfected over time to meet the safety and longevity standards people want. I don't see "near zero energy costs" coming up any time soon. Moore's law does not apply to energy production. No exponential magic here. The Wind/Solar/Battery energy cycle is still very capital intensive, and that capital cost has to be amortized over the electricity that is produced and sold. I do see declining energy costs over time, and the end of destabilizing price spikes that petro states use to extract vast profits while driving inflation and recessions. Also, the car market is far from mature. We will see India and China produce local EV designs that will serve vast populations in their nations, and this will drive huge numbers of vehicle deliveries. They won't be paying $100k for giant pick-up trucks and SUV's though, so profit margins will have to come down to reach these markets. Moreover, transportation as a service must deal with peak load periods that will imply many idle robotaxies at off peak hours, so surge pricing will emerge as a motivation for many people to continue with car ownership. I do believe we will see the casualty costs of automobiles reduced greatly as Level 4 autonomy is achieved in automobiles. Musk as thrown a 10x reduction in deaths, injuries, and crash damage, and that seems credible. My 50+ years of driving experience tells me that most people can barely drive, and can't do it safely. I can't wait for computer assisted or full autonomy to reduce the carnage on our roads. So big changes ahead, but not exactly the ones on the schedule your futurists are predicting.
I think a bunch of the stuff you list is already happing. EVs are already safer than ICE for car fires, and solar/wind ARE declining exponentially. Solar/wind is predicted to be the biggest part of the energy mix by 2025, (IAE Report) and will be in a position to generate most of the globe's electricity by 2030. You're right, its not called "Moore's Law", its called "Swanson's Law". Given that you didn't Google these things before posting do you expect credibility? If you're not aware of what is happening now how can you comment on timing?
Well said! You make many valid points. With regard to car markets such as India: You're right, most of those people can't afford absurdly large and luxurious vehicles such as Cybertruck or some electric SUV. Those vehicles will not be the entry point But people in India won't insist on having a 250-mile driving range, either. Like much of the third world today, they will want practical and economical small vehicles. I think there are already quite a few Chinese EVs fitting that description.
Great comment Chinese car ownership per capita is way less than in the US same in India. I think an exponential change to Evs like we saw with smart phones and other tech will not happen. Not enough raw materials for a rapid transition into 2030 imo. It's close to impossible to get a mine started in Europe takes 20y in the US, nationalization is adding mining risk as well in many other places
It is often the case. Many legacy companies across a wide range of products, can't transition to a new form of technology. Too much baggage. R&D engineers stuck in the legacy mould, Lack of capital too invest in new technology, too much inventory in finished goods and throughout an extended supply chain. Distributors ignorant of new technology. Add to that (especially in USA) the absolute love of ICE cars and pickups. Best strategy is to spin off an EV start up which is focussed only on EVs.
@@777skypilot skypilot, you are either a poor comedian, or woefully uninformed, or hoping that a big-enough lie will go undetected. . Oh, and solar only generates electricity on average what, 30% of the time?
The one thing about Robo taxis that I have yet to get my head around is that the use of them requires that they not only drive people to their destination but also drive themselves to the point of departure. This may be a non issue in densely populated urban environments where distances may be relatively short but in more rural settings where many of us still reside and are more spread out geographically , it can add to the energy spent transporting people from point A to B as I see it.
You may be right, but there's nothing to prevent rural residents from owning cars while city dwellers use Transportation As A Service. Think of horse-and-buggy days; country folk owned horses, city slickers rented horses and carriages from the local livery stable on an as-needed basis.
So if I want to randomly pop down to the shops, I would have to use a subscription service? I can't see that being convenient. Maybe different for people who live in a big city 🤔
This is either totally right or just plain out lunacy. After seeing how close Tesla is to solving FSD I have to go with the first. The numbers of robotaxi if FSD works are insane and I'm pretty sure that FSD is going to be solved within the year. There is only one reasonable conclusion and is the first, this guy is spot on. Im paying almost $1,000 for 3 cars between a lease, financing and insurance (one lease 295mo, one finance 315mo, one paid off) and 400mo insurance. If you tell me I can pay $300 a month for unlimited ride-sharing for my whole family I'll do it in a heartbeat.
Hi @electricviking, If car sales will fall by 75% then Tesla is greatly overvalued, they would never sell 10 mil cars per year the market assumes they will do, isn't it?
Mr Viking hope your wife will be healthy soon. Try medicinal mushrooms extracts also, like Reshi, turkey tail, shiitake, etc...they have a lot of antitumoral properties. Best Regards
MaaS in sustainable transport thinking includes bus, train and hire (e) bikes in urban areas but tends to steer away from robotaxi. Past novel concepts like SaaS are here as cloud based Software services.
I agree private transportation will change massively when full automation is cracked. They will be much like your mobile phone tariff. Miles per month, type, size and level of luxury will dictate your cost. Order on the app and the vehicle of your choice will roll up and take you where you want. The effects of this are enormous. No more UBER, taxis, busses and maybe even passenger trains. No cars parked outside your work or home for 95% of their life, freeing up huge tracts of land, maybe for solar panels. Much fewer cars needed as they will be used 100% of their available time once serviced and charged. I suspect rather than being stationary charged the cars will return to a central point and have the battery packs switched for charged ones. Personal cars will be those who want to pay for the privilege. Geopolitics, car manufacturing, defence spending on protection far away oil reserves and more. The world is undergoing a massive and fast accelerating change.
I actually thought we would hit the $100 kwh mark by 2022. And it actually did in early 22 with LFP batteries, before lithium shot up late in the year. But I don't agree with this one anymore than swappable batteries for personal vehicles. Neither is going to happen to a measurable extent. People in free countries want to own their items. Just like most people want to own their own house rather than renting if they can afford it. Rent is no different that a subscription service like this. Yes, in heavily populated cities this will work. Just like Uber works now in heavily populated metro areas. Outside of that? Not so much.
The world is changing, the younger generations see things differently. Ownership of expensive depreciating assets like cars has little future except for a minority. A home is not the same as a car.
If you like driving your own car youre a total party pooper and can't have wine with everyone at the nice restaurant. Everyone else will be getting tipsy without you. Way to ruin the party, dude.
Seba was talking about full automation which still barely exists and Tesla is being sued for advertising their cars as self driving when they're anything but. The full automation idea is a wet dream which seamed real for a while but turned out to be a damp patch. A big part of his prediction is based on full autonomous, which he has wrong. He also thinks that because EVs last longer people will drive them for longer so new car sales will drop. When has that ever happened with any tech? People swop to new models every four years because they want new, even with ICE they don't drive them into the ground and they won't with EVs.
Just saw your headline title and wanted to chime in here. This is my last week with a major automotive company. Nissan, VW, Stelantis, even Ford, are all on the chopping block IMO. There's too much debt, too much loss, and no real movement in EV development that the buying public can afford to purchase. No purchases mean no new revenue. If the average cost of US EVs doesnt drop to below $23k, then they'll never be affordable by the working class in the U.S. Keep in mind the average cost of a car here is over 45k and the average individual income is $45k-ish. It's not a good idea to buy an average-priced car with that average income. The ratio for transport costs to income per month is sustainable at 10%. This is going to sound absurdly strict to most car buyers, but it's life sustainability that we need to figure in for not drowning in debt forever.
can't see cars sales dropping due to automation to a huge degree, definitely be a lot of cases were one might get rid of an extra car that sits around, but like peak power we need so many cars for a peak car use time,
I like the comparison, do you want to own a pizza shop?, or do you just want to order a pizza when you want some? That is car ownership versus transportation service. When you own a car you have to be responsible, you have to train how to drive a car and learn all the road rules (like pilots have to learn to fly) because you can cause an accident. You'll need a driving license. You need to get a loan to buy a car so you need financing. You have to procure fuel for it, you have to learn where to get the best prices. You need insurance. You have to register the car and renew it regularly. Later you'll need to know how to resell a car. You need to house your car, you need a place to park it (like boats need to be kept somewhere)... now you need a maintenance schedule, you need upkeep. You'll need to learn how to buy tires. If you don't learn any of this yourself then you'll just have to trust whomever to do it for you. It's like you're an employer who have to manage people and pay them to do the work for you. We don't even think about it, we're just used to doing all of this... this insanity. Imagine if you don't have to "own" a car then you don't even need a garage, you don't even need a driveway. It will be a whole other world.
How many people run their cars into the ground? Not many. How many people change their cars because they want something new, not that they need to? Same goes with clothes and mobile phones and loads of other things. Tastes, needs, fashion are always changing and marketing influences all our decisions, like it or not. For rhis reason I don't see us giving up the ultimate freedom of owning and changing our cars gives us.
Near zero energy cost is pie in the sky and totally ignores so many cost factors that will never ever go to zero. In addition, I haven’t looked lately but the U.S. government allows some where around $.60/per mile deduction for a personal car used for business purposes. Why? Because that is what it cost-depreciation, taxes, gas, insurance, tires, etc. Initially, Uber drivers didn’t understand this and were basically offering there services and equipment at well below cost including replacement cost. So, yes, if you travel no more than 166 miles/month, you MAY be able to purchase your transportation needs for $100/month--but I doubt it.
Prayers for your wife and wishing her a very successful treatment! Glad she has great support, stay strong !
This was one of your most important videos Sam. The foundation of energy production is changing, and very few understand the enormous societal benefit probabilities coming during the next seven years. Well done - RESPECT!
What benefits exactly? Fossil fuels have brought the whole world into a better living situation. Better crop growth, less malnutrition, better production, cheaper energy. Everything you see around you, your cars, computers, clothes, food, plastics, etc, are derived from fossil fuels. So what exactly will be the enormous societal benefits in the next seven years? Energy will be more expensive once government stops supporting Green energy, people in developing nations will suffer and none of this has any real proven reason to take place.
The foundation of energy is not changing. Coal fuels everything even EVS.
110%
what an idiot statement... EVs are bad for the environment. and are not very dependable. all these EV makers and Tesla will go bankrupt
100%. I like EV’s but people who are so in on EV will be everything have no idea how many products need petroleum.
When Nuclear was first being rolled out the thinkers were saying that the cost of electricity would be so low the supply would not need to be metered. We all know how that worked out.
There is no free lunch, Sam.
Yeah your never gonna get rid of the energy wranglers.
Oil companies made sure that nuclear never took off. They got the environmentalist to do their job for them. It's different with solar because your roof won't cause a nuclear meltdown.
Renewables will never be free, but their prices have been dropping significantly over the last 20 years. After the initial costs are recovered from energy sold, then there are maintenance costs and replacement costs every 30 years, which are negligible when compared to how much energy is produced.
The beauty of renewables is that once the initial investment has been made, the source of the energy production itself is free, unlike oil, which needs to be drilled/refined, and transported and coal needs to be dug, and transported.
Calculations are done to compare the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) and right NOW, the cheapest is onshore wind, then solar, then offshore wind. Renewables are the future.
Except that they didn't say that. It's been disproved.
Discovered Tony Seba in 2016, which led me to TSLA. Took a test drive (it's free), was so blown over, I bought my daughter some shares. So interesting to see it all start to unfold as Tony predicted. Next thing is Precision Fermentation!
Precision fermentation to the moon.
In 2020, I asked why LFP was not being used in cars. The question is why has it taken so long to dump the ternary type cells?
@@Dave5843-d9m not as energy dense!!
TSLA stock has pretty much doubled over the last six months. Now it's getting close to being worth what I paid for it. I have 639 shares.
@@markumbers5362 percision ferments will have to join the que, I have been cooking "meat tasting" dishes using mushrooms for ages.
Tough to tell the difference.
Tony Seba’s presentations were very influential for me too. Very excited that this disruption is gathering steam. I can’t afford an EV yet, but my lawn mower and power tools have been disrupted 😊
Brilliantly said 😂🤙👏
Haha mine 2!
I have battery powered weed whacker and leaf blower... Works very well, it's quiet and I just plug in the battery to recharge. I can't actually imagine using... what, gasoline?
Haha mine 3! and chain saw.
All my tools, drills, lawn mower are electric. And im so happy with them. Cant afford ev yet so i will just wait till it gets way cheaper in 5 years time.
I remember my rich friends playing samsung or iphone and im just watching on the side during early days of smartphone. Now i was able to buy so cheap smartphone brands anywhere. Patience is important and time will come for us to get these cheaper ev soon.
Hello Sam, I started watching this following the headline, my intention was to look for holes in the EV argument, yes I am a EV/climate sceptic. That stopped when you said why you were in Thailand. I mentioned on an earlier video, I lost my wife to Cancer 3 years ago. Your wife's health is far more important than any EV discussion, I truly hope whatever treatment she is having is successful. Best wishes to both of you.
You don't stop being a skeptic out of sympathy for cancer, it has to be because of what is said, of the evidence. If that isn't enough for you then remember that ICE is a technology of the industrial revolution. Isnt it time we move on? When the first cars appeared in the early 1900s, there were a lot of skeptics too and it disrupted a huge sector of horse related jobs ranging from breeding, feeding, sheltering, equipment and cart manufacturing. No need to worry, it will work out in the end.
Viking, thank you for spreading the joy, the love, the great forward looking optimism. I agree with your bright appraisal for our future! Love/light for your wive’s plight.😢❤
You need a prnoun.
Must watch information! This could be your best video yet. Sam, keep up the great work!
RUclips channel NOW YOU KNOW has been saying all of this for years now. In fact they have an excellent mini series sort of documentary that describes every step of how and why the unfolding of all of these events will happen and go into great detail on the changes in society and city layouts. It's fascinating.
I think there are better channels.
Newcomers compared to Tony Seba. Good channel though.
I used to watch them for the first two or three years. Then they started getting quite negative and began to think they knew better than Tesla what to do. Hubris in the extreme, I unsubscribed. You're right about how good their thoughts on future transport were though, that was really well done.
Living in Thailand and having CLL I carried out intravenous vitamin C treatments about 3 years ago. I am not sure whether or not this was a cure but my blood count was normal sometime after the treatment. My GP gave me 10 years from diagnosis and it’s been 15 years now and blood count is still normal. That treatment was with Absolute Health in Chiang Mai with Dr Wittawatt. Of course good diet helps alao
I wish you and wife the best in your endeavour here in Thailand.
Hopefully you got a few months left before things go downhill quickly.
No reason to get exotic treatment for CLL, when there are several frontline treatments now available, such Venetaclax and Ibrutinib.
Scotland has 120 % renewable electricity but has the highest domestic electricity costs in Europe
It’s the north end of an island.
But the politicians are worse than useless
So we pay €0.33 per kw (Zurich, Switzerland)! Almost no solar panels on house roofs...
@@munggebrot So who pays for the cost of building the generators and also the decommissioning, would that be you via taxes, rather than through the cost of the electricity .
Maybe other countries add these costs to the price of generation
Love Tony Seba. I first posted his stuff to my Facebook friends in 2017. People seeing my post still can't seem to wrap their heads around the extent of the change coming between now and 2030.
Yet another great video Sam. Was nice meeting you at fully charged Sydney. From the 1970s I have been experimenting with power adoption like fitting a fan to a car alternator to give us power to our static caravan but that was in the UK but now I live in Australia it's so much easier 9 years ago we fitted solar panels and I can assure they have paid for themselves many times over now I have a battery as well. It keeps power bills to a minimum. We do hope the cancer treatment is working well. Keep smiling everyone
I am interested in much deeper dives into cars as a service. How many subscriptions per robotaxi? How many miles before you get throttled in a month.
Can they replace taxis and Uber? Yes. Will they displace more cars in cities? Sure.
What happens at thanksgiving and Xmass when everyone suddenly wants to drive at the same time? How much overcapacity is going to just sit around at other times?
Do they actually replace cars or just provide virtual cars for the peasantry? Hopefully no homeless, the smell would be bad and the San Francisco ones will pee and poop in the car.
Great info as usual Sam. I have come to rely on you as a source of information because you are very good at what you do. Thank you.
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This guy's a paid propagandist, but the banks that own western governments love him, so expect his channel to grow larger. The least expensive functioning EV in my area of Minnesota is a 2017 Tesla Model S 100D for $39,900. The least expensive functional ICE car is 33X times cheaper. The difference in price will have to be borrowed from a bank, which produces nothing but misery and debt. The conversion to EVs is another large step down the path to rentier serfdom hell.
"You will own nothing, and you will be happy"
-The WEF
Seba is a very important thinker and prognosticator. Thank you for helping to keep us up to date on his views of the future.
An instant robotaxi for everyone for 100 bucks per month? Very very hard to believe for me, this kind of service must be considerably more expensive than this.
All of your prior experience involved having to pay a person. People are expensive!
@@Thisoldhiker Yeah, I would recommend against having empty cars drive around. Empty cars will sit until called upon.
I think you are right, maybe double.
When I need to go somewhere I don't want to wait half an hour for a ride, I could drive there and back in the time it takes for a taxi to arrive.
@@flubalubaful if you are in a rural area that may be the case but Uber usually only takes between 4-12 minutes to get a ride. Once the service scales wait times will be insignificant.
Brilliant video. He's spot on, cars spend 99% of their life on the driveway, and if a robo taxi can pick my up from the pub let's do it! Probably worth noting that my grandmother was born in 1896, in London ,there were no cars then.
Thanks!
Welcome!
In my country, Uber is already significantly lower than owning an automobile, a trip in the city is usually less than 7-8 USD, I don’t see the new car market crashing. I don’t think consumers are rational when buying cars, this is the reason why you can sell a 1k purse or a 300 sneaker.
Tony hasn’t been wrong yet. Not for 15 years…
He is right!
I agree- he has not been wrong with the disruption predictions but some of the timing was itself disrupted/delayed by Covid and the pandemic
Please explain to me how solar and wind are going to provide all of our power without improving efficiency at least 1000%
@@Roboticpycotic efficiency is not a problem. It’s all about cost per Kw. Both batteries and panels are dropping in price.
@@whowhy9023 ok great. How much sq km are we going to have to cover with panels for all of our needs? 50,000? 500,000?
Nice one Viking. One of your best so far!
Agree. Tony and Peter Zeihan are my preferred fortune tellers, because they can see all the pieces accurately, and they draw supremely accurate conclusions.
Tesla dojo and AI are going to make stop signs and traffic lights obsolete when cars can see each other and talk to each other. There’s no need for stoplights stop signs anymore and it’s gonna help traffic flow so much faster and better and no one’s talking about it.
Yes right, and full self driving works ,like now.
I disagree. FSD cars can stop and go when the other cars are in the camera range. But the traffic flow is a different story. The traffic lights, stop signs, and yield signs ..etc .. are needed, in my opinion.
I think Teslas already there.. I mean their drivers barely stop and have almost been ran over by the terrible Tesla drivers.
Most times I see a crash a Tesla is involved 😂🎉
That’s a long way of in the future.
I agree - won't need speed limits either, there will come a time when cars will be incapable of crashing even if you tried to
I first came across Tony Seba after watching the Australian film 2040. i have tried to watch everything Rethinkx puts out.
I've spent a good majority of my life working on traditional fuel powered vehicles and equipment and it has been frustrating to say the least ' I have long awaited a time like this although I'm still somewhat concerned with the high tech rather than analog systems
I live in Thailand (YT'r as well;) and just bought a car, not a new car, an older car for say 3 years. That's my estimate of how long it will be before EV production in Thailand ramps up & tax breaks/lower costs plus increased charging infrastructure. One can already drive from Chiang Mai to Phuket with an EV & easily charge up along the way. 3 years from now, EV's like BYD Seagull (11K usd/400km range) will be the norm and charging points literally everywhere. Will miss the roar of a V8, just not the fumes (nor the 2000 moving parts vs EV's avg 20;) Very best wishes to you and your wife and may you charge ahead together well into the future. STL
I've been following Tony and this stuff since 2017 and I find the speed breathtaking. I regularly talk to folks on the street who still think EVs are just nice looking golf carts. They are completely unprepared for the changes they will see. From their perspective it will appear to have come out of nowhere.
I talk to my friends they are dismissive of EVs. I say "get some TSLA." They say "the cooperation is coming" They say "solar and wind are fails because the sun does not always shine and the wind does not always blow". In 3 to 4 years people will be wandering around with blank faces as they see what was once their world falling away.
The cost of coal, petrol, natural gas are pretty much next to nothing now. The high costs are largely in taxes. What will SWB's version of this look like?
In Australia the cost of Powerwall storage is $1/Wh. I paid $82K for a Tesla Model 3 LR with an 82kWh battery. That means I paid market value for the battery and Tesla threw in a free car 🤔 Once VTG/VTG becomes available I will store my solar energy in my car for night time use and sell the excess back to the grid. The car will pay for itself over time.
My point: there are other use cases for EVs beyond transport. That’s why demand won’t collapse.
Tesla has not and WILL NOT warranty batteries used for V2G V2H or V2L
@@theairstig9164 I don't care about warranty. I only use 7% of the energy each day and keep my battery between 40-60% SOC. So there is plenty of headroom for VTH without causing degradation. And if Telsa doesn't enable it then I will buy my next EV from a manufacturer who does. I have no special allegiance to Tesla.
My 70D has FUSC and our home is also solar with a L2 Charging Station. I can forsee many having a similar set up in the very near future.
@@rko1914 “FUSC”?
Why would you buy a car when you can get a car ride for less than your insurance per year? As long as you live near a city and there are ride services available, it would be a huge waste of money to spend it on car that sits in your garage 95% of the time.
You obviously have never had the freedom of having a car, and it is cheaper for me to use my car than catch a bus or train these days.
I think there is a problem with the no personal ownership of cars idea. Perhaps it would make sense for folks in large urban areas who have access to many forms of public transportation. But for those of us in small towns or rural areas, I don't think it would work. There would not be enough demand to support a fleet of vehicles and if there or only a few or they had to travel a long way for a single customer, it would cost a lot more than a couple of hundred dollars a month.
There's nothing to prevent rural or semi-rural residents from continuing to own cars.
I've been watching Tony Seba since 2010. Whenever I'd get really down about climate change, I'd cheer myself up with a Tony Seba video or book. By ordinary standards for tech predictions, namely completely and consistently wrong, Tony Seba's predictions have been 100% correct, amazingly so FSD may fall outside the Seba technology disruption framework, or it may not. It's a tough nut to crack, but we will get it done in a decade. That will blow the top off the industry even if we make a 100% transition to EVs which almost certainly will. It will blow the top off an inudstry that's already had its top blown off by EVs. FSD is another disruption, connected to EVs but really separate from it. Read Adam Dorr's excellent new book BRIGHTER.
Imagine if it was in just 5 years: just when the few survivors of the EV transition manage to get some profits to pay for the massive debts they contracted to manage it, suddenly, the demand for ANY car without FSD collapses, far faster than the ICE age ended. I'm personally amazed that NO ONE contracted Tesla yet to install their hardware 4 on their own cars. They are getting extremely wrong/incompetent by just not looking/believing in obvious and widely available industry disrupting facts twice in just a decade and a half. Speak about mindblowing incompetence.
The only fly, I can see in the ointment is all the potholes here in the UK. You would have to be Maverick to avoid the bloody things. Honestly, some of them look like opencast mines
Me too! He deserves Soooo much respect!
@@ouethojlkjn Did youtube put your answer in the wrong thread again? Or I totally missed your point.
@@FlorestanTrement autonomous driving needs to be able to navigate suspension smashing pot holes.
This was an excellent episode. Watched it a few times. Thanks.
Clear and to the point Sam. Thanks as always. Hope your wife recovers quickly. Still would love to hear you do a comparison of Australia and say Germany in terms of solar. It seems a no brainer for Aussies. Is that the same in European countries where there may not be near the same amount of sun. Saw this new tech, solar fencing. Could be interesting.
I like your reminder about the benefits of car sharing! I have a small EV that cannot go on many of the rough roads near where I live. I would love to have an AWD EV with better clearance, but cannot afford one. I would love to be able to rent one when needed. I don't need a car everyday or even every week. A couple of years ago I considered listing my car on TURO, but the app would not let me charge enough to cover my costs. It is too bad we don't have better ways to share other things too, such as tools, and recreational equipment.
Love the video Electric Viking! Very interesting
Hi Viking fron Spain. The question is when, how many battery plants, and production will Be ready in the next 36 monts in Europe and Us? , and When will Be ready FSD in Europe?
good question. I think you can safely buy at least uy at least one more car on a 3 or four year PCP
Tony Seba is like secret information... Have been watching him for years.
(Edit: it almost seems like some companies watched Tony Seba and decided to make it come true. They set their goal to what Tony predicted - why?, because it was a good aspirational goal, and actually it turned out to be an achievable prediction so why not? Also such a thing keeps hope alive when people see the future is actually coming true.)
It appears that none of the Japanese legacy auto makers have been watching Tony Seba, as they are at least 5-10 years behind Tesla & the Chinese EV makers. Japan is at serious risk of losing its entire auto industry, and that would lead to their economic collapse.
There are three major hurdles for vehicle electrification:
Firstly, the minerals required to manufacture them don't exist in sufficient abundance. EV production will hit a brick wall until better battery technology arrives.
Secondly, in order to charge all these EVs we'll have to generate more than twice as much electricity as we do now. Jokes like wind turbines and solar panels cannot fill that gap and once again they'd need batteries to make grids stable. Such battery technology does not exist yet.
Lastly, we'll need to replace or overlay the entire power grid to support all this additional power demand. Large high voltage transformers have a long backorder, of approximately 30 years!
So no. It's not going to happen.
Minerals are recycled, the vehicles provide virtual grid and stabilize infrastructure.
@@777skypilot best of luck with that! LOL
Sam, you said in the video that you would put a link to the podcast in the description but I can’t find it. And a search on RUclips didn’t come up with anything either
Absolutely love Seba, been following him for over 3 years.
Tony Seba is a Rockstar!
Pretty much came true what he predicted in 2013!
Insane accuracy! ✌️
No he's not a rock star, he's a time traveller!!
5th like
BOOM! 💥
You are awesome. Very insightful and sensible. Best wishes to your wife and family Sam!
Thank you so much 😀
Your wife just received some of the best medicine in this latest post. One of your best presentations ever.
Hey Sam, Wishing your wife great success with her treatment - hang in there, my friend.
Excellent report as usual, and I agree with Tony's insight. Predictions are interesting, but the facts are undeniable.
All the best to you and your family.
Robocars will work in the cities but not elsewhere. Very different experience using an Uber in low population areas.
Auto Parts "Stores" probably can, but might not see the advantage of, adding things like D-I-Y Solar, Wind, & Micro Hydro Power Products, for sale, as well as EVSE's (Level 1 & Level 2 EV Chargers)! Other ideas might be good for them, too! Like Home Energy Battery Storage Systems!
That stuff might be a better fit for a home center like a Depot or Lowes.
totally agree... have felt for a long time that the next disruption will be energy. Energy creation and transport.
Transport as a service will work in cities, but not elsewhere.
Yes of course you're right. All car manufacturer's CEO's are completely oblivious to what the competition is doing. REALLY! They know with more information and understanding than the likes of Tony Seba what to do.
I think some may know, but what can they do? They are hired to push the business forward, make profits with the existing paradigm. But its too late! They must be just shaking their heads wondering why they ever accepted the job at the worst possible time in history for ICE vehicles. I wonder if GM/Ford/Stellantis might consider licensing the Tesla brad/technology and start making Teslas?
It's Tony Seba's prediction vs Jevon's Paradox. With cheaper transportation, more it will be personally utilized. The only problem with subscription service is if the ride charged individually, per person, families will own a vehicle I think due to Jevon's Paradox. Individuals will most likely utilize the Robotaxi.
Resturants will pay to drive customers.
One problem… China dominates battery production
Which encompasses the entire supply chain from raw materials to cell manufacturing, and its influence extends globally.
This position gives China a strategic advantage in the growing market for electric vehicles and renewable energy storage solutions.
I’ve been driving for two weeks in the West and Southwest of the US. IN California, you see lots of Teslas; only a few in other states. Everywhere, however, lots of brand new, large, expensive ICE’s that are likely to remain on the road for ten or fifteen years. I’ve also seen hundreds of gas stations, all busy in spite of the high fuel prices. As for charging stations, maybe six or seven. It seems to me that the transition - if it happens - will take a lot longer than you say.
👍 Enjoyed this one, I'd like to hear more about the latest on autonomous vehicles on this channel. Cruise, Waymo etc
Tesla are far in the lead to a generalised solution. Others can operate in a limited way but they are all super expensive to scale. The point is to massively undercut the cost of a taxi ride with a human driver, not burn money running demonstration services at insanely greater cost.
I say let the chips fall as they may. There are too many greedy corporations!
I have followed Tony Seba for years now and believe he is totally correct on his predictions. Thanks for featuring him.
Sam, I just heard Wisconsin farmers saying that windmills have a low frequency (inaudible - 40 Hz) noise that makes cows not give milk and I never hear about bird strikes which I think are significant. What are your comments?
I remember 4 years ago (around August 2019) when I told my friend Tesla would sell 2 million vehicles in 2023. They had just done 245k..(2018) . i told them 2027 there would be very few new gas car sales... I had just watched Tony Seba... my mind was blown but I was convinced. My friend told me they dont know anyone who wants an EV and that they are too expensive for most people. I told them about cost declines and they thought i was insane for thinking costs would go down so much so fast... well... here we are and Tesla just might do 2m... and so many people are buying EVs.
I wonder what percentage of the market will move to TAAS (Transportation as a Service) vs the number who find the overhead objectionable (ordering, waiting for delivery [even if automated], hygiene and cleaning issues, concern about damage done by others blamed on the last user, etc. Most budget strapped consumers in urban areas will move to this but I wonder about the suburbs and more affluent consumers.
It's hard to overestimate the amount of vandalism and filth that robotaxis in 24/7 operation would be subjected to in the US.
6.5 years. According to ourworld in data - world energy profile; it still is about 80% fossil fuel and 10% nuclear, 8% hydro (no real change over 20 years) Solar 1-2% Wind 2-3% after 20 years of expansion.The idea of shifting 80% of the energy consumption onto the grid clealy would suggest you must increase the 20% existing non fossil fuel by 5x - While you might add to those; renewables won't grow to even 25% in 6.5 years.
Tony Seba was absolutely correct in his long-term predictions. I was skeptical about some of his numbers, but he hit the nail on the head on almost every single point.
I just can't afford these EV's currently, especially as a "second" car (Chevy Bolt) - I don't believe most people can either. It's not that it's not a good idea, but the buy in price is just too high. There are also a lot of unknows about used EV's as well. How long will the battery last? The cost to replace a Model 3 battery is over $15K - which would put me back into a very economical ICE car, they are just too expensive.
You may have overshot the mark. EV's will continue to get cheaper as more competition to Tesla comes out and technology advances.There is also the used car market. My 2015 MS 70D was 94K as a new car. I picked it up for 30K last year. One can buy a used Model 3 for 25K all day long, practically everywhere. Shops are replacing cells at 500 bucks a section already. you dont need to replace the entire battery. Replace the section that went bad. EV's are very affordable right now. I can get a newer Model 3 for less than an Accord and never pay for gas again. That makes it significantly cheaper to operate than the Honda, which is a really good car. Type in used Model 3 for under 30K and see how many pull up. I pulled up several hundred.
@rko1914 I have been looking every day since January, the cheapest model 3 RWD with 100K miles is still over $30K, and it's at 8% interest - I haven't seen anything for $25 K yet. I have noticed when i do a VIN search, some of the Teslas have more than 20 different owners (!) I have never seen anything like this before
Very interesting video. If this happens what is going to happen to Tesla? Does Tony Seba have any thoughts on this?
The auto part stores are going to be in serious trouble. EV's only need a fraction of replacement parts that you have with ICE's. You will need to replace tires, windshield wipers, maybe a few other parts but no oil changes, brake pads (rarely if at all), exhaust systems, etc.
This what I find so incredibly STUPID about Toyota and to a large extent, the Japanese, talking about a Hydrogen powered industrial combustion engine as a counter to electric vehicles.
Apart from the logistics of producing and distributing Hydrogen, and the fact that it is so insanely volatile, you would STILL need all the belts, gears, lubricants, gaskets and seals, pumps, and all manner of other parts which will NOT be needed by electric vehicles.
For Toyota and the Japanese to think that a Hydrogen internal combustion engine is a good idea is just, I am sorry to be so harsh, NEXT LEVEL STUPID !
Will take a while to convert the whole fleet atleast till the mid 40s. New car sales are harldly 60 million , with this disruption total sales will b in the 50 m range and total global vehicle fleet is 1.5 billion (1500 million).
And attended parking lots, and auto dealerships, and road construction/maintenance, and car washes, and warehouses for all the stuff for all the foregoing, and and ... when you start looking around you realize that a large fraction of everything is arranged around CARS.
@@alan2102X, Estimates are that between 50 to 70% of all jobs in Japan are directly or indirectly related to the automotive industry. Their entire economy could collapse.
@Trevor Henriques it took 2 big bombs to change Japan's WW2
Great video man - best wishes to your family
Much appreciated
10:00 "...annual auto sales will drop by 75%...": I think they should. But if they "would" they "would have by now". The "transportation as a service" would remove all those vehicles from people's driveways. But without robo-drivers transportation as a service can't work. If it could, it would be working right now...and have been working for my whole lifetime (80 years). To the contrary, taxis and busses have virtually gone out of existence (as alternatives to my travel needs) in my lifetime.
Sam: Cybertruck will put another consideration on the table in evaluating when people weigh the decision to buy transportation as a service or actually owning the vehicle outright. The Cybertruck will bring another entire dimension to vehicle safety. This truck will be TOUGH. IF/when a collision occurs, having a Cybertruck around you will stack the deck in your favor because virtually any other vehicle you could possibly collide with will crumble in such a mechanical "contest". The grabber is that no one can know when/if you will need this extra safety margin which weighs, in my mind, as a pivotal factor for purchasing a Cybertruck outright. The Fleet Mode option could turn the asset into a net revenue producer anyway which must also be considered. For those that can pony up the purchase price an FSD Cybertruck that can be fleet enabled is the ultimate in convenience and personal safety while being financially responsible as the truck should literally pay for itself and return a not inconsiderable net yield.
News from Scotland, for the 1st time, Jan, Feb, and March, saw wind overtake gas power. Also, I heard a rumour that each and every large turbine is to be accessorised with its own battery in the country. Wow.
Yes love those Scottish turbines paid for with English subsidies.
Economies of scale will ensure that power generation will always be grid-scale. Only subsidies allow homes to generate, but the cost is 5 times that of grid scale
I mean if we switch from fuel base trucks to eletric trucks (assuming they can make one) that lowers the price of transport - thus more localization can happen. Let alone means cheaper prices across the board. Alos been a big shift from wanting to drives in the EU to more bike + walking. I think some cities in the US are also seeing the light that it might be better to switch over to the same idea. I mean if that happen that be what, another 16k in every pocket (500-1k$ for an Ebike) + another 50 to 100$ in shopping as well per month.
He’s referring to the great reset - own nothing and be happy mantra, 75% drop in car sales and thus ownership because it’s deliberately made prohibitive - 15 minute cities and use a robo taxi instead anyone?
$100 a month is far too low, unless you are self driving a small, old car for 3 days per month. One cannot ignore the labour costs and profit involved with a subscription model, for daily use it wouldn't work.
I wish it was true about renewables. The dunkelflaute in Europe this year has shown the risks of intermittent power. Until grid systems are able to store, say, a week's renewable output cheaply, they will need to keep a fleet of non-renewable generators on standby - at huge cost. It's like car rental in the US: impressively cheap until the insurance cost is added.
You’re right, storage will be a challenge, It’s unlikely batters are going to be scaleable and it’s not clear that hydrogen will fill the gap either. Maybe 80/90% renewable in Europe, it will take some time to drive out that last rump of fossil fuels.
I think most cars, that have regular maintenance, are easily good for 200-300k miles. Not km but miles. I have friends with 10 year old Chevy’s, not the most reliable, with 250k on the odometer. My latest Honda is 10 years old and had 150k miles on it when I got it. I didn’t think twice about it. I figure I’ll get another 150k out of it before anything major needs to be fixed.
Till they crash
Nope. It’ll be unsupported in under five years as the manufacturers and suppliers of ICE equipment see their markets disappear. They won’t stay open to keep your Honda supplied with parts😂
I expect 200,000 miles from my car. Back in ‘65, I only expected 75,000 to 100,000 miles on an engine. Piston rings have gotten a lot better.
Neils Bohr..."We are not measuring the world. We are creating it." Our thoughts create the world. Sounds like you agree. What a powerful thought.
Just a few thoughts for discussion about how things may evolve in the next couple of decades:
People will continue to use existing fleets of ICE vehicles through their full life cycles, so there is not going to be an abrupt transition, but a rather more gradual one. Battery production is going to be a bottleneck that BEV production has to pass. through. The Chevy Bolt teaches a lesson on that. We will not accept battery fires at anywhere near the rates that ICE vehicles burn up, so batteries are going to have to be perfected over time to meet the safety and longevity standards people want.
I don't see "near zero energy costs" coming up any time soon. Moore's law does not apply to energy production. No exponential magic here. The Wind/Solar/Battery energy cycle is still very capital intensive, and that capital cost has to be amortized over the electricity that is produced and sold. I do see declining energy costs over time, and the end of destabilizing price spikes that petro states use to extract vast profits while driving inflation and recessions.
Also, the car market is far from mature. We will see India and China produce local EV designs that will serve vast populations in their nations, and this will drive huge numbers of vehicle deliveries. They won't be paying $100k for giant pick-up trucks and SUV's though, so profit margins will have to come down to reach these markets.
Moreover, transportation as a service must deal with peak load periods that will imply many idle robotaxies at off peak hours, so surge pricing will emerge as a motivation for many people to continue with car ownership. I do believe we will see the casualty costs of automobiles reduced greatly as Level 4 autonomy is achieved in automobiles. Musk as thrown a 10x reduction in deaths, injuries, and crash damage, and that seems credible. My 50+ years of driving experience tells me that most people can barely drive, and can't do it safely. I can't wait for computer assisted or full autonomy to reduce the carnage on our roads.
So big changes ahead, but not exactly the ones on the schedule your futurists are predicting.
I think a bunch of the stuff you list is already happing. EVs are already safer than ICE for car fires, and solar/wind ARE declining exponentially. Solar/wind is predicted to be the biggest part of the energy mix by 2025, (IAE Report) and will be in a position to generate most of the globe's electricity by 2030. You're right, its not called "Moore's Law", its called "Swanson's Law". Given that you didn't Google these things before posting do you expect credibility? If you're not aware of what is happening now how can you comment on timing?
Well said! You make many valid points. With regard to car markets such as India: You're right, most of those people can't afford absurdly large and luxurious vehicles such as Cybertruck or some electric SUV. Those vehicles will not be the entry point But people in India won't insist on having a 250-mile driving range, either. Like much of the third world today, they will want practical and economical small vehicles. I think there are already quite a few Chinese EVs fitting that description.
@@eyesuckle This is spot on. This channel regularly shows
Great comment Chinese car ownership per capita is way less than in the US same in India. I think an exponential change to Evs like we saw with smart phones and other tech will not happen. Not enough raw materials for a rapid transition into 2030 imo. It's close to impossible to get a mine started in Europe takes 20y in the US, nationalization is adding mining risk as well in many other places
Sam, where is the link on the driven podcast?!
It is often the case. Many legacy companies across a wide range of products, can't transition to a new form of technology. Too much baggage. R&D engineers stuck in the legacy mould, Lack of capital too invest in new technology, too much inventory in finished goods and throughout an extended supply chain. Distributors ignorant of new technology. Add to that (especially in USA) the absolute love of ICE cars and pickups. Best strategy is to spin off an EV start up which is focussed only on EVs.
Yet today, solar and wind power are still very expensive.
Actually solar is cheaper than coal per Kwh
@@777skypilot skypilot, you are either a poor comedian, or woefully uninformed, or hoping that a big-enough lie will go undetected.
.
Oh, and solar only generates electricity on average what, 30% of the time?
The one thing about Robo taxis that I have yet to get my head around is that the use of them requires that they not only drive people to their destination but also drive themselves to the point of departure. This may be a non issue in densely populated urban environments where distances may be relatively short but in more rural settings where many of us still reside and are more spread out geographically , it can add to the energy spent transporting people from point A to B as I see it.
You may be right, but there's nothing to prevent rural residents from owning cars while city dwellers use Transportation As A Service. Think of horse-and-buggy days; country folk owned horses, city slickers rented horses and carriages from the local livery stable on an as-needed basis.
So if I want to randomly pop down to the shops, I would have to use a subscription service? I can't see that being convenient. Maybe different for people who live in a big city 🤔
Where is the link to TheDriven's podcast?
This is either totally right or just plain out lunacy. After seeing how close Tesla is to solving FSD I have to go with the first. The numbers of robotaxi if FSD works are insane and I'm pretty sure that FSD is going to be solved within the year. There is only one reasonable conclusion and is the first, this guy is spot on. Im paying almost $1,000 for 3 cars between a lease, financing and insurance (one lease 295mo, one finance 315mo, one paid off) and 400mo insurance. If you tell me I can pay $300 a month for unlimited ride-sharing for my whole family I'll do it in a heartbeat.
Hi @electricviking, If car sales will fall by 75% then Tesla is greatly overvalued, they would never sell 10 mil cars per year the market assumes they will do, isn't it?
Mr Viking hope your wife will be healthy soon. Try medicinal mushrooms extracts also, like Reshi, turkey tail, shiitake, etc...they have a lot of antitumoral properties. Best Regards
If I want to just go for a 3 hr drive, I don't want somebody driving me around.
See, it’s weird, but I couldn’t think of anything worse I would rather be driven and watch the world go by…
@@Markcain268 i don't think cars driven by humans will die totally, it may become more of a hobby. There are enough of us around at the moment.
MaaS in sustainable transport thinking includes bus, train and hire (e) bikes in urban areas but tends to steer away from robotaxi. Past novel concepts like SaaS are here as cloud based Software services.
I agree private transportation will change massively when full automation is cracked. They will be much like your mobile phone tariff. Miles per month, type, size and level of luxury will dictate your cost. Order on the app and the vehicle of your choice will roll up and take you where you want. The effects of this are enormous. No more UBER, taxis, busses and maybe even passenger trains. No cars parked outside your work or home for 95% of their life, freeing up huge tracts of land, maybe for solar panels. Much fewer cars needed as they will be used 100% of their available time once serviced and charged. I suspect rather than being stationary charged the cars will return to a central point and have the battery packs switched for charged ones. Personal cars will be those who want to pay for the privilege. Geopolitics, car manufacturing, defence spending on protection far away oil reserves and more. The world is undergoing a massive and fast accelerating change.
I actually thought we would hit the $100 kwh mark by 2022. And it actually did in early 22 with LFP batteries, before lithium shot up late in the year. But I don't agree with this one anymore than swappable batteries for personal vehicles. Neither is going to happen to a measurable extent. People in free countries want to own their items. Just like most people want to own their own house rather than renting if they can afford it. Rent is no different that a subscription service like this. Yes, in heavily populated cities this will work. Just like Uber works now in heavily populated metro areas. Outside of that? Not so much.
The world is changing, the younger generations see things differently. Ownership of expensive depreciating assets like cars has little future except for a minority. A home is not the same as a car.
If you like driving your own car youre a total party pooper and can't have wine with everyone at the nice restaurant. Everyone else will be getting tipsy without you. Way to ruin the party, dude.
Seba was talking about full automation which still barely exists and Tesla is being sued for advertising their cars as self driving when they're anything but. The full automation idea is a wet dream which seamed real for a while but turned out to be a damp patch. A big part of his prediction is based on full autonomous, which he has wrong. He also thinks that because EVs last longer people will drive them for longer so new car sales will drop. When has that ever happened with any tech? People swop to new models every four years because they want new, even with ICE they don't drive them into the ground and they won't with EVs.
What states in Australia are fully electric?
Just saw your headline title and wanted to chime in here. This is my last week with a major automotive company.
Nissan, VW, Stelantis, even Ford, are all on the chopping block IMO. There's too much debt, too much loss, and no real movement in EV development that the buying public can afford to purchase. No purchases mean no new revenue.
If the average cost of US EVs doesnt drop to below $23k, then they'll never be affordable by the working class in the U.S.
Keep in mind the average cost of a car here is over 45k and the average individual income is $45k-ish. It's not a good idea to buy an average-priced car with that average income. The ratio for transport costs to income per month is sustainable at 10%. This is going to sound absurdly strict to most car buyers, but it's life sustainability that we need to figure in for not drowning in debt forever.
can't see cars sales dropping due to automation to a huge degree, definitely be a lot of cases were one might get rid of an extra car that sits around, but like peak power we need so many cars for a peak car use time,
I like the comparison, do you want to own a pizza shop?, or do you just want to order a pizza when you want some? That is car ownership versus transportation service. When you own a car you have to be responsible, you have to train how to drive a car and learn all the road rules (like pilots have to learn to fly) because you can cause an accident. You'll need a driving license. You need to get a loan to buy a car so you need financing. You have to procure fuel for it, you have to learn where to get the best prices. You need insurance. You have to register the car and renew it regularly. Later you'll need to know how to resell a car. You need to house your car, you need a place to park it (like boats need to be kept somewhere)... now you need a maintenance schedule, you need upkeep. You'll need to learn how to buy tires. If you don't learn any of this yourself then you'll just have to trust whomever to do it for you. It's like you're an employer who have to manage people and pay them to do the work for you. We don't even think about it, we're just used to doing all of this... this insanity. Imagine if you don't have to "own" a car then you don't even need a garage, you don't even need a driveway. It will be a whole other world.
How many people run their cars into the ground? Not many. How many people change their cars because they want something new, not that they need to? Same goes with clothes and mobile phones and loads of other things. Tastes, needs, fashion are always changing and marketing influences all our decisions, like it or not. For rhis reason I don't see us giving up the ultimate freedom of owning and changing our cars gives us.
I have run all my cars into the ground. Sanity rules
Near zero energy cost is pie in the sky and totally ignores so many cost factors that will never ever go to zero. In addition, I haven’t looked lately but the U.S. government allows some where around $.60/per mile deduction for a personal car used for business purposes. Why? Because that is what it cost-depreciation, taxes, gas, insurance, tires, etc. Initially, Uber drivers didn’t understand this and were basically offering there services and equipment at well below cost including replacement cost. So, yes, if you travel no more than 166 miles/month, you MAY be able to purchase your transportation needs for $100/month--but I doubt it.
Hi, Is that skate got the BZ4 disease? Hope it does not take six months to fix.
Most banks will go down as well..
FSD, Robo-Taxis will allow maintenance at scale in dedicated refurbishing facilities.