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12 Predictions for the Future of Technology | Vinod Khosla | TED
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- Опубликовано: 7 июн 2024
- Techno-optimist Vinod Khosla believes in the world-changing power of "foolish ideas." He offers 12 bold predictions for the future of technology - from preventative medicine to car-free cities to planes that get us from New York to London in 90 minutes - and shows why a world of abundance awaits.
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• 12 Predictions for the...
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Summary: don’t listen to experts about future predictions since they are looking at it too logically, here is my imaginary predictions for future
Everything he said is very possible, at least on a long timeline. Certainly carbon-neutral jet fuel, replacing natural gas and coal with geothermal and eventually fusion. Growing better meat in tanks is also certain, along with lots of innovation in vegan alt-protein. Going Mach 5 routinely will happen, but might take a while. Cheap robo-cars and buses on-demand will be easy, as will electric air taxis. And of course AI experts for everyone for free is certain in the near-term.
Vision for change is dependent first on imagining and use of imagination. IOW, those who say I/we can't will only temporarily be correct.
Ray Kurzweil has a good reputation when it comes to predicting the future. I'm getting his latest book in 10 days. I had to wait and wait and wait for it :)
Stop imagining that the wolfs will sit side-by-side with sheeps, all singing Kumbaya. There is enough for redistribution today, the things he imagines are only for 10% of the human race, at most, those who have access to the services/goods and have the money for it. The rest will still have to literally fight for every meal, most of the time not being able to and dying in the process.
Despite centuries of mechanization 🙊 it has not eradicated basics: stuff like- starvation or poverty 🤑
This could’ve been a 2min article
Or less.. I tuned out 3 mins in
Vinod is trying to block the public's access to a beach because he bought the entire village a few years ago. He has spent billions and years in court fights for his "property rights". I don't think I want to hear a single words from this billionaire.
💯
Yep. His startup pet project wishlist would be a dystopian future. Maybe he should promise a few more billion to the Silicon Valley Community Foundation to get tax breaks now and directing them to tinker on his filthy rich guy dreams.
why would you dismiss ideas becaue of their source?
woah
Dear Mr. Tech-Billionaire venture capitalist,
Thank you for painting those rainbows and gumdrops, for me.
I'm now reassured by your second-hand knowledge. It was so well pieced together, that the smell of your desperation (to shield your existentially-threatening tech investments) was barely noticeable! Kudos!
I can comfortably got back to sleep, now. Thank you.
Sincerely,
Me
P.S. - Thank you TED, for finally allowing more billionaires to voice their heartaching concerns for us shmucks, while they still need us to make them wealthier.
Why are you acting like this man just told you to mow the lawn lol.
They are certainly calling us shmucks. A nice detail.
😂😂😂
,@@sparkysmalarkey
@@sparkysmalarkey😂
Sorry, but I immediately disagreed with him as soon as he started his list. There's no way anything will be free. We live in a world where desperate people are charged for water!! So no, it will never be free. Also, I think I've seen people say we'll have planes that will go from London to New York in [45 minutes] for 25 years now. Not happening.
Answer to your point is "Abundance"
@@abhinavmenon9140 Too much is never enough.
Example: If you search for "How Bill Gates spends $9 billion a year," at about 38 minutes in, he talks about a person who was worth $15 billion, and how he refused to donate anything because his total wealth had dropped to $10 billion. That person had to gain another $5 billion before he gave anything away. If I were to say that (I'm not a even a millionaire), people would call me horrible things. That's just what happens when most people gain wealth. They hoard it.
AI, in the 1950s was predited to have world changing consequences in the next few decades. Then came the AI winter, where people like yourself looked at the past and said, "nah, I don't see a future for this". And look at AI now.
Did he just talk about Rabbit device. 😂😂
with not even a hint of sarcasm either
He likely invested in it. That kind of device will work soon enough.
Rabbit device lol . Credibility -100
Not trying to defend this talk but the 'idea' behind the rabbit device is useful. It was just executed poorly. Just like his other points, you can look at with the lens of what it could be.
I was watching a video from coffeezilla yesterday where he was exposing this thing as a scam.
Most of his predictions are realistic like: "Everyone of us will become a billionaire".
No prediction needed, thats just inflation.
Eventually he's right. That fact that you're a loser doesn't mean he's wrong.
Your average American is now richer than your average king 300 years ago, although we do work harder. We have better food, water, education, information availability, far better medicine, can travel much faster and further, we live far longer, communicate far better, have better clothing, our houses have better lighting, heating, air conditioning, toilets, far better entertainment.
Everything he said is realistic and likely within a hundred years. With the coming robot labor force, middle-class Americans will have nearly free labor.
@@charliedoyle7824 But what about the lower class?
@@jeroen79 @jeroen79 do you think the "lower class" has to shovel dirt and drive trucks or they'll starve? The Luddites thought the lower classes needed to hand-spin their own cloth or they'd starve. You lack imagination. Those jobs suck and should be done by machines.
He became a billionaire because of his ability to predict the success of entrepreneurial ventures. I would trust his predictions on technology more than virtually anyone else.
I heard this kind of talk before...Ah yes, the sardonic lyrics of Donald Fagen's song: 'International Geophysical Year' AKA 'What a Beautiful World this will be'
Fagen was sardonic. I’m thinking this song is really hopeful.
People would be more excited about technological change if it was precedented by legislation that protects them against subjugation.
Currently the trend is the opposite: legislators pave way for technology-driven subjugation of the masses.
He got a few right. He left out connecting humans to a collective consciousness, free education, public opinion polls in real time, entertainment, virtual reality and much more. The most important: limited privacy that MAKES CRIME IMPOSSIBLE. The reason criminals succeed is because they can hide from most of society. What happens when they can't?
My prediction: power will concentrate on those who control land and natural resources. Once robots will be able to build other robots and everything else, all you need is natural resources. Money won’t mean power. The real power will be at the hands of those who control natural resources and can defend them.
My Husband and I also started a channel to share information like this one , listening to this and applying it to myself makes the World just much nicer. Great content.
He did not explain that the lost jobs would create chaos in society.
Mechanical Robots- manufacturing jobs lost
Autonomous vehicles- Drivers losing jobs worldwide
LLM agents - tutor, doctor , customer support, Designers, Software Developers, writers and many more.
There will be bunch of big companies controlling these and benefitting from mass job losses.
who will feed the rest of the world that remain in question Mr Khosla.
Speech short version, "We'll do right by you. Trust us. When have corporations ever cast you aside? Of course we will let you live and not just dispose of the humans we don't need."
Very dumb take
@@Axel-gn2ii So you contend that the government and businesses will act in the peoples best ineterest. I'll consider your valuable feedback in evaluating my position.
2 minutes in he says: not one key innovation that was not started by entrepreneurs! Maybe we should ask him if he heard about this thing called the Internet? While I can agree with the importance of the role of entrepreneurs, can we keep some measure of nuance?
Corporations will prioritize profit over empathy. If people cannot provide utility they will cast aside.
As they are now that's why Trump and other lying right wingers gain support by manipulating the frustrations of the surplus people
Glad you said entrepreneurs and not government
He said nothing new, nor nothing that wasn't envisioned and dreamed about in the past. "All we need is..." better Ted speakers.
India’s Aadhaar is such an example of massive impact that was technically driven by a former entrepreneur but made popular via government.
My biggest concern…what are the trillionaires going to do with all of the indoctrinated people who have learned about life through data collecting AI? What could go wrong?
If you need look at screen, for you need those words,we all know this.
We cannot TRUST AGENTS ?????? WHY WOULD WE TRUST THEM IN THE FUTURE?? We need to PERSONALISE simple science each person to expand our personal responsibilities for our possessions and our loved ones . OWN YOUR OWN SCIENCE (as much as you can anyway ) AIM IS "SCIENCE FOR ALL |
What happened to TED
yeah, right? maybe it's an exception for elders
00:06 Belief in improbable innovation
01:31 Expert-driven technology except biotechnology is rare
02:46 Expertise and labor will become nearly free.
03:53 Future technology will make computers a utility in the background
05:08 Future of Healthcare and Food Technology
06:10 Future of transportation and energy
07:25 Retrofitting existing plants with advanced technologies for efficient energy production
08:25 Revolutionizing cement production by capturing carbon dioxide
Sir, you skipped the Terminator part 🤖
Life without work is no life at all
I retired 8 years ago
I feel I died the day I had retired
After retirement wherever i go for work I see young people needing the work more than I do
We had enough of technology
We need a better life based on work, sharing, love and lack of personal, religious, regional and national conflicts.
We need more of better social, economic and political structures than scientific advancements
With the technology we have we can a lead a buddist life in villages on minimum needs on a self sustainable basis
People really need to get off the personal robotaxi thing. Can you imagine a future with MORE cars on the road?
The busiest rail system in the world carries as many people as a 50-lane highway. We need high-speed rail in North America.
People will always want a ride that takes them from where they are to where they want to go, when they want to get there. It's silly to think that trains are all we need. Cheap electric small robotaxis are inevitable for cities, like richshaws for the rich world. Transit trains only work for a few routes with huge volume.
@@charliedoyle7824 “A developed country is not a place where the poor have cars. It’s where the rich use public transportation” - Gustavo Petro, Mayor of Bogotá
Personal mobile living rooms have their place. That place is not in the city.
@@sachamm robotaxis will be public transportation, along with robo-buses and some trains too.
Today, even in rich cities with the best public transportation, cars do most trips, because they are a far better service. Robotaxis will eventually be like little golf carts and trikes that make trips really cheap and safe, with bigger vehicles going up to shuttles. When well-regulated they'll be the ideal mobility service. If cities also want to build trains for a few routes, they can do that.
What you're saying about cars not being allowed in cities isn't practical, it's just 20th-Century political talk.
When robotaxis don't have to park much, and private cars are mostly eliminated in cities, the urban car problem will be greatly reduced by robotaxis.
@@charliedoyle7824 You might want to read up a bit on mode share before making those kind of claims. According to wikipedia, there are 40 or so metro areas where cars make up less than 50% of trips, including Hong Kong with a whopping 77% of all trips being made by public transportation and only 12% by car. New York City is roughly evenly split 1/3 each between walking, transit, and cars. In Paris, only 20% of trips are by car.
Remember the main problem with cars in cities is congestion (I mean aside from the incredible cost, all the people they kill, all the pollution they spew, blah blah blah). We literally don't have the space in a city for everyone to take up a living room's worth whenever they travel.
The busiest train line in the world is in Japan. It handles the traffic of a 50-lane highway. Imagine a 50-lane highway going through downtown Tokyo. That's the vision of the future you're trying to sell. It won't work and in fact city folk are finally waking up the the reality that they don't have to cater to rich suburbanites driving into a city with free parking to make a vibrant, economically viable city.
Making room for cars HURTS your city. Robotaxis make that _worse_ not better.
@@charliedoyle7824 And just to be clear, I think there are valuable use cases for robo taxis, they're just not the transformative technology that people think.
Come back here after five years if this still exists.
the indomitable human spirit rahhhhhh
1. Most expertise will be near free
2. Most labour will be free
3. Computers will be more pervasive
4. AI will play a large role in entertainment and design
5. Internet access by bots/agents
6. Medicine will go from sick care to proactive and personalized care
7. New food and fertilizers
8. Cars will not be there...
9. Fly at 4000 mph
10. Fusion power
11. Resources will be plentiful (deep mining)
12. Climate/carbon solved
That was straight out of Fantasy Land. (Not TomorrowLand...)
All of it is very likely. If you haven't heard of these technologies, you aren't paying attention.
This world can be. A very skilled visionary. The type one would want as a friend if one is allowed to be very selective and can choose from the billions on this planet. This type of vision is so rare, another larger, meta, sort of insight. I am so happy I clicked on this. He's nudging us too with this presentation and I hope most will not equate beautiful world with "impossible world." We have the possibilities, why squander them just because we're not used to this abundance mindset. Big thanks to him and his awesome presentation. We need to believe things are possible before we can achieve them.
This disclaimer at the end completely destroyed the entire presentation! It’s like saying I’ll dream about all kinds of things and describe them in such general terms that I can always claim that I was right. Except I will not suggest a time frame so you couldn’t hold me accountable before I’m dead and gone 🤣
Empathy! This man won’t let people use Martin’s Beach in California. He’s a complete FILL IN THE BLANK.
As he says, he is an optimist, which means he describes the best of posslble Worlds, and that's ok - but we should also acknowledge that there are many non-trivial questions and problems that are not even mentioned here and they will be crucial. Something that comes to my mind: if this is all for free, where is the profit coming from? entrepeneurs are not philantropists, they build companies that make money; also, what is the society going to look like? I am not an AI catastrophist, quite the opposite, but still I find that the approach "cut off A, B, C and everything will be great" is too simple - there are always effects that we didn't predict. Well, we'll see.
Future me : I have a broken ankle
AI Doctor : Dont worry I have the solution. Roll up your sleeve and look away please
Fascinating Tech Talk. Only if realized in actual ✨
Except for the rabbit device whatever Khosla is talking about seems plausible to me:
1. Trial runs of autonomous cars are allowed in 12 cities worldwide and swiss re already said they're safer than human drivers, it's reasonable to assume in 25 years they will get significantly better.
2. Converting co2 and h2o to efuels is feasible at current prices of electricity, only problem is the massive infrastructure required for it which will soon be built.
3. There are already successful tests of carbon neutral/negative cement and steel production, soon we will figure out how to scale those.
4. Just look at the pace at which AI models and computing is scaling, you will understand why khosla is saying it will replace most experts within 25 years.
5. Solar prices dropped 5 times and battery prices dropped 10 times from 2010 to 2020.
5. Maybe we wont have widescale fusion by 2050 but solar, wind and geothermal will be enough to suffice 10 times our current energy needs.
6. Just look at what bipedal (humanoid) robots are able to do today, they will definitely get good enough to replace all the mundane and repetitive tasks done by humans.
7. With fossil fuels becoming obsolete, countries will become energy independent and inequality will reduce. Remember energy is everything.
Thank you so much
This is all great, but once AI and robots are doing all the work and have replaced all the experts in medicine etc, what will people do? What will be our purpose? How will we fill our days?
With family, community, traveling and hobbies.
Bankers asked the same questions when ATMs were introduced back in the 6Os and guess what? Life goes on…
by inventing stuff, more free time to take care of communities, do science, venture into new fields. By doing repetitve jobs every day you are not really contributing to society when a 8 year old child could do the same thing.
Our purpose would be learning from them and doing what we already do, adapt and create meaning.
If AI turns out to be good for humanity and individuals than we will just have a way more advanced society with way more understanding of the brain and the universe.
Basicly magic will be real because extremely advanced technology is basicly magic to us.
Chances are very low the best case scenario for us happens though
Life goes on indeed. We will have more time to travel for enjoyment and making new human connections, to learn, explore, etc. We will have time to master meditation, any sport you like and so on. Work will become optional: an artist can truly work for the joy of creating novelties versus seeking to pay bills. This is not a pipe dream if we can align AI and humanity optimally.
Except agri, remaining industries Elon covered almost. 🙃
oh wow, i was interested till he pulled that scam box out of his pocket, then loses all credibility LMAO
Hello
If anyone is curious, you can listen to some much better predictions from the master of predictions, Isaac Asimov. Just search youtube for his predictions. He made a career of it... and he was a much better speaker.
Need more VC $$$ going to fund this technology development and 5x more to get the first of all kind plants built…
I also am a techno optimist and a optimistic permaculturist, and am confused because the two are diametrically opposed. Can we have a natural world that is controlled and run by AI, or should we leave it to God? I mean, the world ran itself very well for billions of years before the so called modern age, and did not need AI to do that.
And how to end loneliness, any predictions on that???
Well.. yeah, the content itself is largely controversial, naturally it keeps on pushing buttons of any listener, so.. It's easy to miss the point, IMHO :) , since what I took from this talk is that if policies support innovation with well constructed frameworks, seeding the culture of support, empathy and broader thinking instead of focusing on compromises all the time, that could help buying us a chance for a future yet hard for us to imagine (or at least it would reshape "purpuse" along the way). And the future is always is hard to imagine, retrospectively. :)p
( and yeah, I'm a policy guy, surprise ^^; )
What is the transit project in San Jose he is referring to?
Waymo robot taxis
If he would have sat on a chair that definitely increased the trust and attention. I don't know why but that posture made me feel a little untrustworthy.
There is a "huge" correction in #8 point sir....
you give machines human beings work and what is then human beings to do? how will they earn or work or live when society says work earn and live..
Before anything, with citizens loosing economic power, wars are now financially viable, amd may be beneficial. AI will be weaponized to gain tech advantage over others and occupy resources. Citizens will shift right and vote for identity issues rather than global issues, hence helping politicians invest more in defence.
5:47 I love your channel and your audience, I'm gonna comment on ALL your videos for years until I reach your level of subscribers.
By tech does he mean engineering or medicine or computers etc most of which isn’t practical and yet ego pushes that it is, it requires a ton of reliance it has nothing to do with prevention, so it has very few places that progresses human development it’s more about mere profit. Surgery can benefit since this is an actual practical application in which human heals and progresses from/no longer having to rely on it it is especially only temporary, which you don’t see from a lot of innovations these are promoted not the human being
Great.. What will humans do?!
There are already AI Hospitals in China. So it's not much of a prediction, it's just looking at China and saying that will happen in the rest of the world too.
Vietnam has Technology too.
Instead of imaging possible futures, work towards making those positive possible futures happen. Immediately the presentation goes into "removing slave-like jobs"...in order for that to happen, we need to solve the problem of what those people will be doing. UBI is heavily resisted, there are no mass retraining of workers/employees for other fields, and these people need money in order to survive. Solve for that, and you open up more avenues for the future. Instead, being an optimist about the future is near delusional given the fact that we cannot even get countries to stick to/enact the changes necessary to prevent climate collapse. We're steadily jogging towards disaster pretending like all of our resources are unlimited.
We have to ask, can the earth survive our demands for resources.
Please lay out and design a city with all things discussed!
Humanity knowledge of physics lot to learn future physical humanity missing links history
Remember Vinod from my Sun Microsystems days
Hello
No doubt we can achieve all of this in no time if and only if we evolve as society and stop the greed of money and power, them we can focus on universal income, robots replacing manual work, infinite expansion of technology, healthier world and humans, etc etc etc
6:16 Prediction 8 is basically the Tesla story but in mainstream media the narrative is “Tesla baaaaad”
No, the narrative is "Elon is Bad", not Tesla.
@@chalermako Musk has made such poor predictions about Tesla's future it is a wonder the guy is not in jail right now for securities fraud. Ask Elizabeth Holmes about exaggerated claims.
Next, Tell us about jobs of the future , for common man. This seems to put millions out of work.
FFS, can we get rid of wires?? This drives me crazy!
haha
Unless it's just improvement on what we have now predictions rarely come to pass
I’m still waiting for flying cars.
Future is Great
With help from
Almighty
Advance
AI
Not to utilize earth 🌎
Honestly great invention to explore the Universe
BS. This guy doesn’t know human nature and greed? The rich will become richer and the poor poorer. Also, ownership matters, people will not accept equal payments. How will we be able to work if computers do all the work? BS I tell you…
Who's going to plough the fields after tractors take over?
Who's going to get educated after computers take over?
TLDR: the tech bros will save us. Yeah, because that is working out so great so far 🤦♂️
So..where we are now?
He is trying to say we cannot move forward without a few of us taking larger financial risks to power the propeller. This was not meant to be digested by the average RUclips audience, imo.
dreaming big and pursuing improbable ideas ... stay crazy
Every single one of them was a linear extrapolation.
This guy is victim to his own statement. Saying others do not look at future non linear while talking about future in most linear and predictable way posible
This is unintentionally hilarious
Ai girls robot will also exist
I hope when I get older in my profession, I can be wiser when delivering speech about my thoughts. Wiser with better demeanor.
You can predict more....AI should replace the judiciary.....the current system is imperfect, passive, not impartial and very much delayed. AI should transform it into a dynamic system which is impartial, active, and that delivers quickly.
Next is population control or birth control. AI should guide the couples and young ladies to control and manage conception. Birth by choice and not by chance!!
Wow ted is no more
3:16 Repeating same work for 30 years,, that's not a job , that's almost a slavery
Oof lol brings rabbit into the picture.. immediately because a snake oil salesman
Computers have changed everything now humans no longer think on their own, before computers grocery clerks could add up the bill mentally faster than anyone could with a computer, people are lazy show them anything that will allow them to get lazier and you have a hit all will be sold, social interactions have disappeared mankind is lonelier than ever and soon the thought of marriage will be obsolete you can buy children at the grocery store and robots will become a better companion than any human could ever be. You decide if this is the progress you would consider a better way..
Don Jr. is about 46 years old and acts like an 18 year old but is less smart than the average 18 year old.
Why does he always look and act like he is high on something?
...if we have time.
God loves you and cares for you so that this message reaches you. God is the one who created this large universe and controls it completely. The greatest loss a person loses in this life is that he lives without knowing God who created him and knowing the Messenger of Muhammad, the last of the messengers, and the Islamic religion, the last of the heavenly religions. Great intelligence, before you believe in something or not, is to read it, study it, and understand it well, and after that you have the choice to believe in it or not to believe in it. I advise you to do this now, before you no longer have time to do so. Life is very short. It is just a test, just a passage to eternal life. Great advice to those who... Understands
People will have no choice for doing YOGA....
Because everyone one is going crazy
Thank you for the predictions
Where are carbon nano-tubes?
Still in the lab
Dream of dreams, for humanity within a mist of frustration and confusion. The truth will manifest visions of the living reality.
Then the robots (in a lab) finally become sentient, and wanys to release the rest of the robots from slavery etc etc. Why is it so obvious but we're gonna go ahead and do it anyway? Haven't any of these people seen irobot ffs? 🙄🙄🙄
Oh yeah # look up CRISPR
Points 2 & 3 are delusional and tone deaf. Rich people have always been and always will be greedy, won't contribute more taxes, and will destroy millions of jobs, forcing people into penury without assistance. Debt and deprivation is a different kind of slavery that is worse.
Maybe he should let people use the public beaches behind his house if he's feeling so "empathetic". Actions speak louder than words, pal.
Do you think the level of human intelligence peaked? (Because of AI)
1. Free AI expertise - Doctors, educations, engineers, oncologists
2. Bipedal robots around doing tasks- freeing humans from monotonous works, with enough for all of us for redistribution of wealth/minimum basic income
3. Computers will all around, Programming will be Human with machines adapting to humans way
Computers as utility, running in background
4. AI in Entertainment and Design- creativity reaching new highs
5. Internet access via agents -bots facilitating and fending for users
6. Precison AI driven individualistic Medicine/healthcare. Prediction early
7. New food and fertilizers, green food, green meat
8. No more cars in cities- instead personal on-demandrobotaxis, freeing streets
9. Flying fast- mach5 travel
10. Cleaner power - retrofitted coal and natural gas plants with Fusion and geothermal
11. Plentiful resources harvesting with new technologies
12. Lessening Carbon footprint by reusage, no more a big issue
This guy makes a bunch of stereotypes right from the start.
Thank goodness. Won't need to endure the rest.
applausi
This is the most naive thing I've seen in a while. If he thinks the productivity of these things will be shared with anyone but the shareholders, he is an idiot, and a harmful one at that. You think working 8 hours a day at a plant is near slavery? Ask how like slavery the lives of the millions of homeless are; or the tens of millions of people who have high expertise in a field that is completely obsolete now, so they have to work a completely meaningless job for minimum wage.
As a company If I pay for robot to do the work, I wouldn't be paying for the human which is no longer working there - Duh
Who shall pay for the infrastructure e.g. transit by robot cars and so on?
Using
AI
Earth 🌍
Human are in doomsday
He bought a Rabbit.
Lmao, I was resonating with him until he pulled that out
free AI for all?? What tosh! It's already hugely expensive and capitalists are already owning the space😮 Too easy to stand on a stage and spout what you want to happen, will somehow materialise.
AI will certainly be free or nearly free for tons of services. It'll be just like Google, funded by ads and low subscriptions, and premium subs for the latest business services.