Poker Hands - James Obst Folds a FLUSH in the 2016 WSOP Main Event
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- Опубликовано: 29 окт 2016
- James Obst has made some very interesting plays in the 2016 World Series of Poker Main Event. On a previous episode of Poker Hands, Doug was critical of Obst's decision making in a hand in which he folded a full house. This time, James is is throwing a queen-high flush into the muck. Will Doug approve this time?
It's hard to make it to the 2016 WSOP Main Event Final Table when you aren't showing down strong hands. Even great players like Daniel Negreanu, Phil Ivey, Dan Colman, Phil Hellmuth, and Tom Dwan need to make big hands once in a while. Then again, only a handful of players remain, and this is a once in a lifetime opportunity. Some players elect to preserve their tournament life at all costs.
Poker Hands is a weekly show in which Doug analyzes live poker hands from TV poker shows such as Poker After Dark, EPT (European Poker Tour), High Stakes Poker, the Aussie Millions, WPT (World Poker Tour) the Big One For One Drop, and the PCA (Pokerstars Carribean Adventure). He especially enjoys reviewing hands by big name online pros like Viktor Blom, Ike Haxton, Dan Cates (Jungleman), and OtB_RedBaron.
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#GrindNation
Come on spade come on spade , pleeeease spade!
Yesss spade! Ok i fold. -.-
I just like how in this video Obst fold is so bad that Doug has to make up a less ridiculous scenario so he actually has something to talk about.
Have you ever considered calling it Polker Hands?
That's genius! Kappa
Enough with these commments, you fucking trolls!
Don't be ridiculous, no one would suggest that.
LMFAO
This is poker. Not polker. Moron.
Obst decided he's gonna become a superhero named Herofoldman and made another one of these. Alas, this time the supervillain prevailed!
This is the most atrocious fold you can make in the history of poker: for 4M in a pot of 10M (ABSOLUTE INSANE ODDS) with the flush in a REALLY weird sequence and against a REALLY aggresive player. I almost had a heart attack when I have seen it.
after he went all in Obst asks him 5s? He was representing trip 5s at the turn raise. so I can understand him thinking he might have quads after the river. Agreed though still a really bad fold in general.
You call a raise on the turn with nothing but a draw, then you make your draw and fold? Obst is better than all of us, but wtf was that
Well no, Obst is still getting the right odds to hit any spade which doesn't pair the board, or any 8. There's a huge difference between non-pairing spades, and spades which pair the board, esp against an opponent who is set-heavy, given turn action.
He was aiming to hit that straight flush part of his draw and the river didn't deliver :_(
Cabluigi still getting the right price on the river bro. His call need to be right like 20-25%. This guy is 20bb deep not 100bb deep it's an obv call just scared money deep main event situation. Note the fact that he's not even shoving. He leaves 500k chips which players tend to do when they r bluffing cause it pretty much has the same effect with a little bit less risk. When they have the nuts they shove and get the chance to knock u out of the tour at this point. However in that case he's not bluffing but he doesn't want to hear a snap call either
Cabluigi Paired the board or not, in that situation, when you make your flush, you should never fold.
Obst is not better than all of us he is exploitable weak scared money i mean the RIVER IS NEVER A FOLD VS QUIS RANGE
the lesson is never fold the top of your value range, especially to gambling asians with tiger hats
I second this!
Raccoon* FTFY
Lazar Claudiu Florin Amen, I call Asians with any pair and it usually works out well.
lmao "gambling asians with tiger hats"
@@kendob9642 Haha.
Really happy you did this video! Seems so absurd to fold, yet James is an online legend. I noticed when you critique hands it is from a very logical/range oriented standpoint that ultimately leads to the decisions you make. However, I wonder if James is using some live read here that we as the viewers simply can't pick up on? Or possibly some other level strategy that us mere mortals could never understand... His results speak for themselves, he's an amazing player, just can't understand this fold at all. Anyway, Great video man thanks for all the good content!
Earlier in the tournament Obst was in a similar situation where had a Qd5d flush on a 6d 7d 8x 8d 2x board, called down to the river and lost to a full house. I am quite sure that hand had influence on how Obst played the rest of the tournament (including his correct fold of 77 full house vs straight flush)
Crazy hand. Had Obst jammed, we might have seen a different winner for the ME.
Have you considered calling it Douger Hands?
Get out
Empy Rean
I just love your channel you are doing a great job. I really like how detail oriented you are about everything no wonder you are such a successful player.
Polk great youtube channel , i enjoy a lot your videos . Chears from Serbia
Doug you just don't get it.... he had a gut feel.
John Smith Ah ok gotcha, seems like a good strategy
That's why Doug never makes good plays.
Not sure if this needs to be said but that was a joke guys...
+Doug Polk good strategy to be a loser long term lol
+John Smith LMFAO
Loving the series Doug, keep it up
Thx for posting
Love your videos and am a long time subscriber, love your stuff Doug ;) i wish i could be as good and wise as you.
+Doug Polk would you check-call or lead the river?
Pleaseeee do the Ruzika vs Vayo hand. I was rooting for him the whole way and it sucks because I cant decide if it was a punt. Would be a really interesting hand to see you dissect.
The few conditions u may consider to fold a flush are: board pair, board trips, low kicker (villain can hold a better flush but usually if 2 players holds cards of the same suit flush doesnt come on the board)
I like how Doug is keeping the content flowing from Punta Cana I hope Kate doesn't hate you lol
I wonder how much ass Polk is getting ? I'm very impressed that he keeps the content going with so much action going on the side
I don't think we have to worry about Doug's priorities, he'll be alright lol
True, he does a amazing job
Joe Dybisz She's the best, she knows I work hard and is supportive
Hate him? She love$ him so much.
also someone suggested it a while ago but Sexton vs Matusow next please, Doug, pretty please.
When you try to make crazy folds you're inevitably going to guess wrong sometimes. It's hard to know whether Obst's strategy is +EV or not, considering the broad range of situations in which he'll go for these potentially exploitable folds.
+DougPolk What advice can you give to someone who doesn't have a large enough BR to necessarily have a HUD to review hands or subscribe to certain poker training websites? What sources are out there that can be used for a microstakes grinder? I know this is over poker hands but I didn't know where else to ask.
He's chasing a flush, makes the flush he was chasing, and then folds it? lol
Obst playing it like it was Omaha :D
Nice another episode of Polker hands
it's my favorite things Polk's be abouts
Hey Doug. Could you do some hand analysis on a few tony g hands. I really enjoy your hand analysis videos and I feel like tony g could be an interesting topic. Even though he's not as relevant nowadays as he used to be.
Hey doug can you analyze the Q9 vs J5 hand from the recent main event HU?
on Pokerstars where Obst I think
plays he encountered many times situations where when you have the pair on the board the flush is beaten because some oponent is making the full house. But even if Obst has good folds , we see people who don't fold that often going further in tournaments
Why call the turn with a draw and fold when you hit? Wow. Doug you nailed it again. I think this year's play was considerably worse overall than recent years. Or maybe I've just learned more from you. ;)
Ruane's reaction was priceless when Obst was tanking..
final hand of ept malta main event is crazy Doug!
Nice video bro. Keep it up.
What ICM " pressure or bubble" ? Were they 1 off a pay jump?
hi Doug, Do you know of any newer 2016 high stakes live cash game videos that i can watch? it's hard to find these 50-100+ games now days which is sad.
Thank you for taking your time to make these videos.
Mindfull One Your best bet is Poker Night in America with the stakes being 25/50/20...every now and then there will be a random cash game (SHRB 2015) or King's casino but that's the best it gets in terms of televised high stakes. Hopefully there's a televised cash game during the Aussie Millions this year
Try to look for King's cashgame on youtube.
god that PNIA is awful. beggars can't be choosers :(
Hi Doug!!
I love your poker hand videos and would like to make a recommendation for a poker hand analysis:
Just finished watching WSOP ME FT...congratulation to Qui Nguyen. He played far more agressive and deserved to win. The hand i would like a analysis on is the set over set hand in the beginning between Josephy and Vayo. I like to know if you could find a fold there considering that vayo cant have many big kings like AK or KQ there, because he would have raised AK preflop and probably not jam KQ against a big bet on the turn from Josephy . Also its questionable to take the same line with a hand like 54 in diamonds .. two pair is also not in Vayos range. So what is your opinion ?
Thanks a lot and continue with your great channel
i made a mistake .. he cannot have 45 diamonds because 4 on the turn is diamonds!! The question is would Vayo call a hand like 56 or A5 diamonds (gutshot backdoor flush ) after qui bets cliff calls. I know that in this situation you possibly dont make such a deep analysis of the hand, but... Vayo looks so strong pushing on the turn you should take i think more time then Cliff really did.
With Obst being short stacked with under 20bbs after calling preflop I would have just led out with the straight flush draw and I would be happy to get it in.
You talked a lot about our range and how not being exploitable, but what about Nguyen's range in this situation? What worse hands aside from 5x do you think he is valuebetting given the flop action?
I'm checking my entire range on the turn in Obst's shoes. Stack size is just far too awkward and I don't feel comfortable betting with draws, considering that there are two players behind that can potentially raise and I risk losing equity in the hand.
I just hate the river fold... He is actually value cutting a small portion of Nguyen's range and considering Obst's overall range at the river, he can easily fold Qx and call with any flush.
Check/call vs bet/jam is close, I am check calling turn and calling off any river bet.
Wow that straight flush hand must've put Obst on next level tilt if he's folding here at that stack size
Antonio is stealing your vibe, Doug! On the WSOP final table stream he was all, 'Hello, action flop'
how do you only have 23k subs??!?! your vids are informative and hilarious man! /you could work on your editing though
u could have trips
@@memes420blaze twips
He had a read but I think MTT strategy wise he has to put it in. He already invested over a third of his chips and folding makes him the short stack of the MTT. I still support his read on the last video being that it left him with more chips to play with.
Hey, Doug
I have a GREAT hand to suggest you comment on this series.
YOU ARE even on the table.
IT is "Dan Colman and Scott Seiver, 2015 Super High Roller Cash Game" in youtube.
How could Dan loose so less with his top range wtf..
Thought Scott is of the players who can always find bluffs in every spot he wants to valuebet.
Guess you can tell better what is going on there as you were on the event horizon.
Nguyen flat called the turn and i think it looks like a strong draw or a slow played set. His read was based on the flat call.
This is the exact problem with folding the full house before. In the moment it is a hero fold, but if it's the kind of thing you can consider doing, it will leave you open to situations like this. When you play the entire hand basically hoping for X card, or we'll say Y card in this case, since he was really hoping for the straight flush, folding when that card comes out just leads you to wondering why you were even in the hand in the first place. Bad beat stories are as much a part of poker as hero folds, and sometimes ya just gotta call and win/lose it all. The alternative is being left with almost nothing and basically 0% chance from then on out.
0:13 you mean straight flush vs full house. But if Obst thought the way he said he did, he should fold with quads as well.
2:20 it's straight flush draw not straight flush
You didn't talk about what range Obst might've put Nguyen on to fold it in the place, that was what I was hoping to hear. I guess raising the turn Qx of spades or QQ, 10 10, AQ as raising from mid pos but also would he slow play that on the flop with wet board? Also the raise on the turn looks really bad but in this spot it's actually correct isn't it? Weird hard.
QQ, TT and 66 are all pretty unlikely when V checks a flop that wet as the PFR. For the same reason nut flushes are also pretty unlikely. 3 combos of 55 and 3 combos of 56s are really the only full houses he's going to have often.
True. However, it is even the question how often 65s elects to min-reraise on the turn. After all, Nguyen`s turn line feels quite a tad spewy, and looks rather like an "info bet". - I mean, it is certainly not for value... Maybe, one of Obst`s reasons for folding was that he could not put Nguyen on any reasonable range (as there actually exists none :D ) - apart from that single holding with the Nutz.
ollie williams true, so why did he fold?
Wouldn't a full house make the same move on the river given that the turn raise would also merit pocket six as well?
Horrible fold. Shows that Obst had help from the poker gods to get this far.
I know you're just leveling/trolling with that statement but even if he would make a terrible terrible decision so what. People are allowed to make mistakes, they do mistakes, bad decision, that's how poker is that profitable still. The point is to make less mistakes or not "that" costly ones. People are not machines so cut kid some slack.
Erm... You do realise that Obst is one of the best online tournament players of all time?
lol RUclips gold
Clearly... doesn't change my opinion any. Kassouf got to 18 and he's not one of the best online tournament players of all time. (Please read with dripping condescension and sarcasm)
Bob Georgiou Well no, you are a youtube expert, I imagine irrefutable evidence won't stop you spouting off nonsense.
Nice bluff by Nguyen, he blocks 65 and 55 and can have QQ here too.
i just think that aside from all the bluffs , the only value hand nguyen can have that loses to obst's flush , and that could also have checked the flop as a trap and raise the turn, since he was the preflop raiser is ( q 10 )..... and espesially for a player as aggresive as nguyen.....i dont know about all that ballancing stuff,..maybe that plays a role in it.
I know if this was Doug on twitch the chips would have gone in less than 2 seconds "Sorry guys" OOOOOOOOH BAZAAAAAM!! "DONGERS UP !!"
p.s. terrible fold andy mcleod
smalldonkin river here is unbalanced, but is a bad move?
Hey Doug, I was watching a random video and saw an ad from you to subscribe to your channel, but I'm already subscribed. Seems like your ad budget may be being wasted on people who are already subscribers.
Twice now.
donkberg Same here.
Idk why he laid this down ? With the preflop action and the flop action what did he put him on ? 65s? 66?
Doug, be honest, did you upload this hand because if your correspondence with James Obst on Twitter, where he said you have to treat Main Event (and it's potentially life changing money) in a special way and fold in some spots where you wouldn't fold in other tournaments and you disagreed and said you treat every hand and tournament the same ?
You know, to prove you were right ? 😏
Nice analyze anyway, as usual ☺
Can I get a shoutout on your next Polker Comments video? I need some validation. Thanks Doug! 🙏
Your analysis is spot on with me on this hand and the straight flush hand. I don't mind obst's bet on the turn maybe he gets both hands to fold with 9 high and can bet for value if he hits the river. Also has the option to bluff the river if he misses. At first when I saw the straight flush hand I asked myself is obst some kind of genius poker player with a soul read. Now that I've seen him fold the flush he looks like a poker pansy who's scared to gamble. In reality it's to small of a sample to judge his poker skills. But with the small sample I'd give him an average to below average rating.
After watching other breakdowns of this hand I feel I have to walk back my previous statement. My mind has been changed. In the straight flush hand Obst reads the player for having a straight flush and says if you don't have a straight flush you must be the best actor in the world. In this hand Obst tells Qui that 5 hit you. If that's the case then most of the hands that a 5 helps are sets and bigger flush draws. Qui shouldn't have A/5 there very often. I take back all the negative comments about Obst's and give him back the benefit of the doubt that he's making a genius read. I'm never laying down there. I aint no genius. Big hands intsa call.
Doug I agree with you on this...especially having that short of a stack, having that good of a holding and that pot committed not to mention if you really want a chance to play for #1 u just got to gamble a Lil on that dude have quads or a house or a larger flush...me personally I would 100% always shove all in in this situation
Jack I couldn't agree more
Jackie Williams
Lol
obst, why u call turn if u muck river when u hit hand?
bloke is a genuine online gun, and yes im an andrew mcleod fan too, but this was near as nitty as wazika folding his str8 flush draw vs Gold when 3 handed...
Only hands that beat him are those sets/quads (like 10 combos?) and Ak/aq, maybe aj spades. There are even more bluffs than that in his range!
Hey Doug I have a theory question for you. I know you're approaching these hands from a (god i hate this word) GTO perspective saying stuff like you can't call every Qx here and can't fold every Qx here or else you will be exploitable. Do you really think a Vietnamese Vegas "professional gambler" with a raccoon hat is exploiting you? He looks like a button clicker to me. Like here I 100% agree folding a flush is lol but I think against 99.9% of players in a MTT you can play exploitatively because villains aren't good enough to exploit us. Either way great analysis in all these vids I really enjoy seeing your thought process from a more balanced strategy. It really gets me thinking how I should be constructing my range especially against tougher opponents
Doug, What happened to Tom Dwan?
Why call the reraise turn if he's just gonna fold the rvr when he hits. Praying fora one outer?
I think it's good Doug analyzes with mentality of (it doesn't matter it's main event)... I think in the end obst is just folding due to fear... what else?
What makes this fold even worse is that he wasn't even bet all in. He could have called and still have chips left. Not very many, yes, but it is still very important factor in this hand.
My guess is he had him on a set then board paired, giving him full house. You can't fold after calling the raise on turn though.
whats dougs favourite game? Polker
Doug, you've got to listen to the people.
We want 'Polker Hands'.
worst fold omg on that runout after pre/flop and turn action
anyway it's Růžička, not Ruzicka :D Vojta_r ftw!
still trying to get why he folded when he hit the one he was expecting on the river card...???? maybe it would take the eternity for us to get that...
Hey Doug!! How about you call it Polker hands!!!
I also wanted to say, why is he still in the hand after the turn, calling the bet. his best river card is the spade for the flush.
then he folds it. I'm hoping the spade comes and its the 5 to give him trips so he calls my big bet. the 5 on the turn giving him 2 pair seems unlikely so I'm not scared of the house when the 5 pairs on the river.
sometimes you need to just look at the cards on the board and decide if you have the winner, and don't get caught up with the betting and all the poker bull
Why isn't this series called Polker Hands?
obst is better player than me but thinking about the hands that actually beat your flush there isn't many the only full house he can have in my eyes is 56s - if nguyen flopped any good bit of this board he wouldn't check its pretty wet! so once he checks through on this flop he cant have any good Qx and 2 pairs or sets or even flush draws i would expect him to cbet most of them aswell!
Getting over 3-1 on a call on that board with a flush vs an Asian baccarat specialist. Snapppppppppp call. If he rivered 65, gg. All the other full houses make no sense the way it played out. If it's a better flush, it's a cooler, we had a straight flush draw.
You could make an argument for 66. Calling preflop, checking the flop (possibly with the intent to check raise) and betting the turn when you got no action.
The way this hand played out, the only hands I can see played this way beating a 9 high flush are quad 5s and 65s. All Sets, two pairs, or higher spades would almost always bet the flop so the story that Nguyen has a higher flush or fullhouse that is not 65s doesn't make any sense.
YOU SHOULD ANALYSE THE HAND BETWEEN IVEY AND DAWN WHERE DAWN BLUFFED WITH 8 HIGH
**9 high
Wasn't it 7 high?
no it was 6high
noonono it was 4 high
It was 2 high
imo sometimes you need to adjust DURING a hand. I keep seeing comments where people say "why call the turn with a draw, only to fold when you hit it". In principle i agree with this statement, but you also have to be able to adapt if new information becomes available. I think thats what happened here. Looks like Obst maybe had him on a set when he raised the turn, called to hit the flush as long as it didnt pair, which it did obv and it would appear that fear (emotion) perhaps took over with the decision making process. I think this was a mistake for the same reasons Doug mentioned but you cant be so rigid when it comes to taking a particular line with a particular hand. This looks to me like a guy who can make really good hero folds but got it wrong this time. I think he just miscalculated exactly how many bluffs his opponent could have on this river.
Even a stopped clock is right two times a day.
Calling stations find a good call sometimes,
Folding nits find a great looking fold sometimes,
But if they do it too much, the times they are right do not pay for the times they are wrong.
Hope the cubs can turn it around.
James Fowler
There's always next year.
holy shit obst was 25 in this video lol
It was a bad fold IMO. The whole reason he was staying in the hand was to make a flush, you can hope, but you cannot realistically expect to make a straight flush. So he makes his flush and the sole reason he folds is because the board paired. He didn't fold because he thought Nguyen had a higher flush, because in that case he would have folded on the turn. So that means that he believed Nguyen flopped a set and elected to continue playing the hand anyway. It doesn't really make much sense to me and seems like Obst was paranoid about ending up in a cooler hand, but if you are going to be busted out of a tournament you are better off getting busted in a cooler than getting blinded out because you folded too easily.
I think I would call just because he has a racoon hat.
He should've never called the raise if he planned on folding if he hits his flush
2022
I guess he thinks the turn raise is repping a lot of Q5s/65s/55 or flopped sets. Can't think he'd think this maniac would check a strong flush draw on the flop. It's still so few combos and you're incredibly shallow though. Nguyen's bet with a 5 on the turn was super unorthodox, he should normally check that hand, so Obst can't really put him on trips value owning. Under the intense pressure of day 7, and possibly not knowing what type of a player Nguyen was, it can be easy to have trouble finding hands you beat that take this line.
Well..I don't think its a horrible fold ..it might be bad , but its pretty logical in my opinion..
ill explain :
in obst point of view its very rare to think that nguyen has any five in his range except 55 (that are quads) , because that raise with a5 preflop from mid position AND the raise on the turn is simply a horrible play.
and you just cant except someone to make it often enough to think there is a five in his range.
so then what NYUGEN represents after raising pre , re raising the turn , and shoving the river?
he can have 6 6 that tries to slow play the flop , qq and 10 10 (since he raised preflop from mid pos)
its probably pretty rare for him not to bet these hand on the flop though , given the fact he raised preflop.. but maybe he tends to slow play , i am not familiar with his game..
what else can he have that isnt a bluff ?
he has alot of high flush draws in his range after raising the turn..
he can have q 10 that we beat , (but i think in obst mind NGUYEN wouldnt raise qt off preflop from in middle position so we probably only beat qt s)
and the thing is , i cant really find many bluffs that would raise the turn that have some equity in the hand.. we block some of the gutshots he can have , and its pretty rare to think he will raise the turn with only a gut shot..i really cant find logical bluffs that we beat here
except : a10 with a of spades \ k10 with k of spades and maybee j10 s ? i dont think its a good bluffing hand really.. and i would think that NYUGEN will simply call the turn with a 10x type hand most of the time..
please comment if you disagree\agree about the stuff i wrote
thanks :)
same goes to qj+ its so wierd that he would be turning his top pair to a bluff at the turn , where there are so many draws..
I pretty much agree with you. If Obst thought Nguyen was incapable of bluffing river, there aren't any value hands he beats.... Apart from the trips hand he had! But it's such a non-standard line Obst would not have considered any combos of one pair 5s at the time.
Live reads could have come up with it. If Obst thought Nguyen knew he was strong and was going for value, which he was lol, that plays a part.
However, I probably would have called, because against randoms you always have to allow yourself a certain % "random clown factor" range, and that might be enough to call getting 5:1 on your money.
Lmfao this nigga is in a different nice ass room every video.. Swag
Be careful Doug, your hair will hit the fan!
It looked like 65 or a better flush. it's a good fold. What would you raise the turn with? And what worse hand would Nguyen bet on the river after the flush hit? it's Nguyen who played unconventionally, not a mistake by James Obst. (just considering the hand, not the tournament dynamic or dept which I'm not aware of).
i would never fold a Flush with 4.5 M behind. in this part of the tourney, high stack always putting pressure. so i would call for sure.
Obst put half his stack in trying to hit the flush. Then he gets there and mucks leaving him the short stack. I understand him not wanting to lose to a boat but unless you have the absolute coconuts you're always going to have some doubts.
checking the river with that stacksize makes his range weaker than it is, bad fold.
Doug is right. You have to be calling in that spot
it probably means Ill never get to the final table of the ME but I would never ever fold that hand and if I did it would certainly not be on the river. I dont get this play whatsoever.
THEY ALWAYS HAVE FULL HERE
You could call this Polker hands!!