Uber's Early Investors on Tesla's RoboTaxi Fate
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- Опубликовано: 21 апр 2024
- Jeff Lutz is an ex Supply Chain C-Level Exec at several Fortune 100 companies like Google, Lenovo and Motorola. Currently running his own consulting firm.
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Herbert
I think the mental models are wrong. Robotaxi is not just a taxi service. RotaxI goes after every courier job that exists. Auto parts stores deliver parts to garages, couriers have to deliver documents to banks, and everybody is looking for cheaper way to deliver their products that last mile Tesla makes that last mile… And this explodes if you can put an Optimus robot with it.. trough of demand are non-issue if you can apply your services across a much broader set of need. The mistake I see being made is describing the robotaxi TAM as similar to an Uber TAM. When you drop the price dramatically, you changed the type of service that you can provide in a qualitative way.
That's what happens when you disrupt the existing company
Cybertrucks deliver cargo to customers or from one business location to another.
Think of just the TAM for only this segment: kid needs ride home from school, parent not available.
I think you are correct but are underestimating how fast businesses respond to new technology that require investment in new hardware. They will only consider the new technology when their old tech comes up for replacement. +-5 years.
@@michaelnurse9089 I'm confused. You are saying they respond fast but only after they realize that they are being beaten after 5 year mark? Just trying to clarify
Herbert + Jeff = the best duo bare none. Could listen to you guys all day. Thanks for doing this.
hi Herbert and Jeff, the answer to utilisation efficiency is to combine freight and moving people... you can choose to move freight when people are moving less and vice versa! This is another reason why we will quickly move to detaching the motor, battery and autonomy system from the load carrying compartment once unsupervised autonomy is proven. The answer is not planning for peaks it is to remove the peaks!
This could further halve the cost of Robotaxi. I suspect that Elon has not considered detachable drivetrains which means this is 10 years out.
@@michaelnurse9089 Elon is well aware of the possible efficiencies, he has already hinted at other Robots form factors after Optimus and Tesla is already building the Semi truck (once unsupervised this will no longer need a driver compartment). I find it hard to believe Elon hasn't already got this in his sights but the market isn't ready for that yet. Expect the first autonomous Tesla rides in Vegas tunnels and moving from there onto surface streets. They haven't used autonomy in Boring tunnel yet because S3XY rely on a single steering electric motor and drive belt which is known to fail in service, steer by wire with it's two electric motors and drive belt is required for redundancy.
Another video by Jeff and Herbert. Starting strong Monday!
Nice to see solid, positive, Tesla business discussion that’s impossible to find on mainstream business mediums, ie squawk-talk, mad money, cnbc tv, etc etc. NICD JOB! Please keep it going!!!
Jeff is the most knowledgeable on this subject Herbert has as a regular guest.
Appreciate you guys doing these analysis it's very helpful to the community of investors specially during the rough times we're going through.
Great show ❤ keeps me reasured
Nice discussion, Herbert!
The robotaxi does not need to be something separate from the speculated compact model. It could literally be the same car. A robotaxi does not necessarily need to be without a steering wheel. It could simply be the compact car that you stand on a street corner and summon with an app and when it shows up you have the option of having it drive you or you could sit in the driver's seat and take over just like you do with FSD now. That would solve a lot of issues, basically making it an Uber type car that you simply summon. But there would be no other special requirements needed. Then that car could also be sold as the $25,000 compact model.
This was a solid case for Tesla Robotaxi.
You have to look at the TAM as the area where a taxi/uber is to expensive due to the cost of the driver.
Rural areas are part of the TAM
Excellent 🎉
What's the cost challenges to the platform if they're using customer cars on the fleet?
Awesome!!
Tak!
that's correct
Latest News ( copied from CNBC Web page ) about TESLA Auto Pilot: Federal authorities say a “critical safety gap” in Tesla’s Autopilot system contributed to at least 467 collisions, 13 resulting in fatalities.
The findings come from a National Highway Traffic Safety Administration analysis of 956 crashes in which Tesla Autopilot was thought to have been in use.
Tesla’s Autopilot design has “led to foreseeable misuse and avoidable crashes,” the NHTSA report said.
Peaks. Do actual car sharing. Offer a much lower rate if people are willing to let others ride along with them. Make the rate, for example, 50% of single (single party) occupancy. As long as the provider averages 2 paying butts in seats then nothing is lost and capex is lowered.
Yup, there's always going to be people going to same obvious destinations, a football match, airport etc. Ride sharing will be a big winner.
"Research shows that rideshare services account for about a 3 percent increase in traffic-accident fatalities since 2011. That's about 987 deaths per day and due to the increasing number of rideshare vehicles on the road. Uber vehicles were involved in 97 fatal crashes between 2017 and 2018, leading to 107 deaths." - Brooks Law Group
I understand the challenges in regard to Tesla breaking into this space; however, value proposition of SAVING HUMAN LIVES (which Robotaxi & FSD will assuredly do) trumps all of it in my very humble opinion.
Optimus could have several different functions in a RoboTaxi system.
It could inspect, clean, and charge the cars.
It could be an assistance to those in a wheelchair. That would probably be in a RoboVan taxi.
That could be possible in, let's say, 2 years time. About when RoboTaxi really scales up and takes 9ff.
Where are all the trade ins? Is there a fleet hiding or are they sold somewhere?
This seems like the worst period.
Even the market are now very unpredictable. Started investing recently when the market prices were a bit high,today I am more than 60% down!
Don’t be confuse buying the dip in a bear market, with guaranteed future returns. Just because that company is down 60%+ from ATH does NOT make it a sound long-term investment. Make sure you’re investing in great companies. kudos to Christen wilburn
....
I agree just reached my goal of $500k monthly trade earnings. Setting realistic goals is an essential part of trading
Please educate me, i'm willing to make consultations to improve my situation,
Sphe's recognized as 'Mrs wilburn. One of the finest portfolio managers in the field. She's widely recognized; you should take a look at her work.
......
Please how do I find this financial counselor?
I'd love to know this mentor of yours
Had Uber since IPO…. Watched it go down and up finally and sold it all to load up on more Tesla…. Like comparing Blockbuster to Netflix..
Bill is more bear toward tesla for sure.
Gigafactory states first :)
But the demand for ridehail services is very limited. Robotaxi demand will be like 1 million cars in north America at best.
Shouldn’t Tesla publicly state that the use of robotaxi software provides free insurance?
This might be a dumb question, but why wouldn’t demand based pricing work for a robotaxi fleet in order to make it profitable to operate a fleet sized to handle peak capacity? I haven’t tried to model the numbers but I know there is some price where that would work, what I don’t know is if that would still be competitive against a human based uber model taxi.
Hotels have this same problem and they seem to find the right balance to keep themselves profitable.
It's not a dumb question, you're highlighting the obvious, and you're right. Even if there's points of low demand (doubtful for years anyway), demand based pricing will smooth out everything, as also will couriering.
Tesla models S, X, 3, and Y all have mechanical linkage between the steering wheel and front wheels. How do you use one of these cars as a robotaxi if a passenger in the taxi could grab the wheel and steer the car into danger?
Agreed that the existing fleet won’t be suitable as Robotaxis. In addition if the customer leaves the door open what would you do? I think it must be dedicated Robotaxis with no steering wheel/ controls apart from a touchscreen (or two), self opening/closing doors and more inside cameras to ensure the car is always clean and passengers are safe.
Of much more importance is that S3XY have a mechanical linkage and ONE electric motor and drive belt for system control... The motor and drive belt is known to fail in service even at low mileage. The redundancy when the motor or belt fail IS the human behind the wheel! Only by replacing this steering rack with steer by wire steering rack as in CyberTruck do you get redundancy under system control. Model S3XY are not safe for unsupervised use without modification. See "All EV by Steele Auto Group" Model Y steering rack tear down RUclips video and work it out for yourself.
re peak time demand etc... I would imagine that to start with, customers cars will do all the work and Tesla will content themselves with taking their 25-30% commission but if they then find themselves forecasting having a load of unsold cars sitting parked by their factory for some cut-off time, those cars will simply register themselves with the RoboTaxi fleet, and will keep doing so until it becomes less profitable to have them in the fleet than awaiting the chance of being sold. An equilibrium will be found, probably not far from the number of cars that can be kept more or less permanently busy - i.e. off-peak demand, with customer cars filling in during on-peak times....There will already be Tesla owners who are not using their car at peak times and new off-peak owners will come aboard when they realise that they can heavily subsidise the cost of their car in this way... Companies will stagger working hours further smoothing peak times over a longer period and legacy cab companies will pick up any peak hour crumbs that Tesla cannot handle.
I don't think Tesla need a partnership - their partner is distributed amongst their customers at peak times and at off-peak they will draw in Uber and everyone else's customers simply by being CHEAPER, more reliable, timely, consistent, clean, predictable and available - just as the writing is on the wall for legacy car manufacturers, so I believe it is for legacy cab companies, couriers, postal services (your postman will be an Optimus), trucking companies etc. Tesla will continue disrupting complacent businesses, using AI to accelerate the process....
I can see turning yr Tesla into a taxi as an intermediate step. This would eleviate the used car market. If u buy a new tesla, set your old tesla to work. Either be your own shepherd or send it to a 3rd party who has the time
How will a driverless RoboTaxi recharge itself? Will it park over an induction charger?
I heard someone say there will be attendants at the stations.
@@trina2100
😢New jobs?
That would hurt margins.
They should deploy Optimus
@@summerbreeze5115 agreed!!
Bill is a moving target😂.
Woot!
The rideshare business often struggles with profitability. Contrary to popular belief, the operating costs can outweigh what passengers are willing to pay.
Build your fleet to average and then require that people share the vehicles during peak times.
I'm a rideshare driver who uses my Model 3. I subscribed to the new $99/month FSD offering to put it to the test. I didn't realize that I would receive v11.4.9 and not the most current version available to non-employee owners. My early experience is that v11.4.9 is nowhere near the level of functionality described by those who have the most current version. If the intent was to spur demand and usage of FSD frankly, they missed the mark.
Really they gave you an old version??
What? I can't believe this. Everyone should be on V12. Tesla? What the hell is going on here?
Models S3XY will require modification before they can be used safely UNSUPERVISED! These vehicles rely on a single steering electric motor and drive belt that is known to fail in service the risk is too high. Tesla could take off lease vehicles and modify these with a steer by wire steering rack similar, if not the same, as that fitted to CyberTruck. The steer by wire system replaces the mechanical linkage with a second electric motor and drive belt. See "All EV by Steele auto Group" Model Y steering rack tear down video for in depth look at the system. There are multiple modes of failure from belt snapping to belt losing tension if bolts loosen or motor fails. If customer vehicles were used then the customer would have to agree to having their vehicle modified and likely no longer available for there personal use.
It is just like energy. low cost baseline will cover average. Peak will be provided by high cost providers. In other words, Tesla/robotaxi will initially just dominate average utilization via price advantage. Humans/uber will own peak initially. Eventually the new tech will take over peak, but not initially.
Why do we care so much about the peak? If uber can't solve peak, why are they expecting robotaxi to solve peak issues?? I'm confused
True, demand will be off the scale at all times, let alone "peak". Tesla need to crank out 10 million taxis per annum to get anywhere close to demand levels of $1 per mile taxi rides.
My question is: If Uber partners with current Tesla owners, how is that different from a driver operating their own car? Operating costs remain significant, and the owner still expects a profit.
It's a misconception that drivers make huge profits. The fact that 90% of drivers don't pay income tax on their earnings indicates that profits are low. Clearly, the drivers aren't the ones profiting the most.
I know this is a crazy thought but the boring company has a lot of customer interaction a few years. It’s gonna be all over Vegas owning a lot of cars. Could that be a path for Robo taxi
What happens if 25% of car owners say it’s not worth owning a car and start using autonomous ride-share?
Good question. Owning a car is an expensive pain. Parking is a nightmare.
I imagine that there will be a glut of used cars on the market, especially "second" cars. A ride share to an airport for say $12 each, makes an owned vehicle look really dumb.
Scrap metal will get darn cheap.
Herbert, to add to the timeline:
- 4/2024 Elon has confirmed that Grok AI will be incorporated into Teslas
- 4/23/2024: FSD v12.3.5 rolled out (+13 days)
Think of a mom who needs to take her child to school. Because the robotaxi is so much cheaper they need to plan for peak and to always have a car nearby. That would mean 1.5x to 2x the amount of cars but it is necessary to have good customer service. Our family simply stopped using Uber because they were sometime unavailable when we needed them leaving us stranded on the pavement.
the guy in the glasses says no win on prime time volume.. kind of supports that with the cars are then useless otherwise ... OVERLOOKS .... THE CARS ARE JUST BATTERY'S they never stop doing their job... just sometimews they are contemporaneously being used to move humans around .. BIG PICTURE BUDY ! ... smiles
I have NOT HEARD 1 analyst raise their numbers, because of these COST SAVINGS...
They lower their numbers almost immediately and only slowly raise their numbers on Tesla..
Why ????
In order to provide you a better buy opportunity.
And themselves.
Evening guys
Tesla FSD 12.3.4 Crazy Hill Test In The Rain!
Rocco Speranza
10.2K
If I had a Tesla, all the times I'm NOT using it [which is many, many of the peak times], I'd put it on the Robotaxi network especially at the PEAK times. Peak pricing will make it worth it to me to shift my usage. Even if I need the car at a specific PEAK time, I'd still release it to the network before I need it and after I've arrived. I'd never park it unless I was going to be less than 30 minutes. That's my best ROI and barely changes the way I personally use my car. In fact, we already do this to a certain extent: we only have ONE car. When one of us "needs" it, we figure out how to make that work. If one needs to take the other or pick up the other, that's what happens, in conjunction with Metro and/or Uber or even "getting a ride with a friend". And yet, the car STILL sits easily more than 95% of the time. That's a LOT of unharvested earning potential. That car, a 2014 Nissan Versa Note, bought 2nd had from Hertz car sales in 2016 with 40k miles, is now a "low mileage car" since it is 10 years old but only has about 65,000 miles! And we live in LA, where everything is 10 miles away or 100 miles away [Sta Barbara, San Diego, Palm Springs, Bakersfield].
Robotaxi functionality will be more expensive that just FSD - Tesla will take half or more of the profits. Peak usage on weekends can also mean somebody throws up their tequila shooters on your seats - not a disaster but requires thought as to who will clean it and when.
THere are few governors more ideologically driven that De Santis
Tesla does not need Uber for their data. Tesla is an Internet connected automobile. They already know usage patterns, and they are already extracting Uber drivers data that are driving Tesla's.
I agree. Never let a 3rd party come between you and your customer offering, because then quality of service goes to ball of shg1t.
Also agree. Usage patterns etc are blindingly obvious, and are irrelevant. If/when robotaxi works, demand will be infinite for decades.
Aside from anything else, Uber's usage is data from the past.........it doesn't include the demand that will come from people just selling their cars because they no longer need an expensive depreciating lump of metal on their driveway.
Tesla urgently need to find a way of producing 10 million taxis per year; ASAP. All model 3 and Y production will be taxis too; zero point in selling the cars..............if or when the taxi works. That's the only question for me, "if and when".
It would not be hard to introduce 10K Robo's for a single market like dallas. As it grows price and service will intice people out of thier own.
Why do you think it would not be hard for 10,000 cars in Dallas. It would difficult enough to roll out 100. DfW airport another 100 cars. FORT Worth and Arlington 50 each
But 10000 easy?
I can't be sure but I think tesla does not need Uber or any other partner
What if they simply roll out an Uber like app that allows people to summon an empty vehicle? It doesn't need to be any kind of special car. It could just be the current customer cars or even better, literally every base model 3 they can manage to produce. The idea of robotaxi has us all thinking that it needs to be a driverless car. Pretty much everyone knows how to drive. What they need is to be able to summon a vehicle. The current iteration of FSD allows it to be self-driving 99% of the time, so you could literally just roll out an app that would be a competitor to Uber and have every single car in the six million car Tesla fleet be eligible for this. They could tease a future car that would be simpler and cheaper, which would make it more ideal as a base model robotaxi. But the main difference would be that it does not need to be anything special above what they are already doing. If I'm standing on a street corner and I need a ride, I could summon a Tesla that has no driver and it would make its way to me, I would hop in the driver's seat and it's up to me whether I want to steer the car myself or let it just do its FSD thing. That will not take years to roll out. It literally already exists! So these guys like Gary who think it's going to be 2030 before robo taxi is a reality, they would be completely wrong as it would already be in its nearly perfect form. You just need the ability to summon the car to wherever you are. They already do that. And if they rolled out that software in August, there would be a backlog of model 3 orders going out 5 years. You wouldn't need any other car for this.
Herbert is at least stubborn about his view . But he's clearly wrong. Jeff is being a diplomat. It's clearly much more effective for Tesla to enable existing owners to loan in their vehicles into the fleet. All the operating & maintenance costs fall in the owner and Tesla only takes liability while the car is in the fleet why Herbert doesn't see this is beyond me.
Also they will partner with larger fleet operators and Uber and Lyft will have to partner or die as the scale fleet operators slowly take over.
Uber & Lyft will not have time to dawdle on coming to Tesla to make some big purchases of vehicles & propose partnership.
We are talking over a decade before any of this happens. If you want to invest and wait a decade or more, you may win out, but a decade to make real money is a long long time.
Are you from the future???
@@jtyler81 shhhhhh don't blow my cover JT! LOL. No I just know policy and how government works.
Everyone geared up to buy the dip later today?
Guys could you explain to me what FSD will help as it will only be allowed in a limited US States while the whole USA is the lowest market for Tesla? EU and UK where I am based are the second large Tesla market and SFD will never be allowed especial true for UK market. Chinese market most likely will prevent it too as to support local variations. So in that case what is FSB buzz about. You are constantly mentioning that ALL Teslas could become Robotaxi! But How it will be with the wheels and pedals in these consumers cars to be turned into Robotaxies? It does not add up. The Robotaxi should be seen as completely new business separate from Tesla vehicle business and if Tesla could incorporate later on into the existing vehicles on the road today good, but tooting if as Holy Grail for Tesla is no more than brand fanatics.
Once FSD is proven to be significantly safer than human drivers Tesla should seek (require) a concession on its liability in an accident. The potential risk to be quagmired in frivolous lawsuits both in the US and internationally is too high to ignore IMO.
US…. politics, regulations, lawyers, lobbying, (political) judges…
Is there any possibility of Tesla + X for the robotic taxi?
There will be a stampede from cities and States.
Nobody is afraid that angry Uber drivers send stones on Tesla's robotaxi, standing next the road with one STOP on their shirts because they lost their jobs?
From what I hear ride share such as Uber operating cost per mile are about $.83, Tesla robo taxi will be about $.16. Can anyone see a profit opportunity here?
Only if you make a bunch of stupid assumptions. Like flooding the market with robotaxis won't drive prices down. Or that taxi regulators won't step into protect Taxi services and human workers. Or that liar and conman Elon will figure out FSD 🤣🤣🤣
Total lack of imagination
What if 100% of his customers won’t support a maga troll?
Robo taxis will nuke the competition in the first week, it will be epic, as with cats curiosity will kill the all other players people are like cats curiosity will drive them to try it, human nature is so predictive, the huge benefits for robo taxis not having to park one’s car, call wait step in ride step out repeat to go home, nothing is going to beat it,
who's going clean the puke from robotaxi?
@@socalsp3
Optimus
Yep, parking is a massive pain. Also, agree that Optimus is going to be the cleaner, at least doing 80 to 90 percent of the cleaning; maybe need human to finish the job.......maybe not.