Tesla Expert Explains Tesla’s Strategic Moves | Jeff Lutz
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- Опубликовано: 21 апр 2024
- Jeff Lutz is an ex Supply Chain C-Level Exec at several Fortune 100 companies like Google, Lenovo and Motorola. Currently running his own consulting firm.
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Author is invested in multiple Humanoid companies and is long TSLA and other stocks at time of original video publish date.
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Herbert
As Tesla investors, we are very fortunate to have access to Jeff's knowledge and experience. Thank you Jeff and Herbert!
DEAR TESLA.... please hire Jeff Lutz to present earnings calls.
Jeff Lutz knows how this works.
...and then the glasses get their own employment contract... LoL
Jeff definitely has a clarity to his analysis.
If Jeff Lutz was a minister I would probably become a believer. Amazing discussion - Thank you Herbert and Jeff
Goodness.... Jeff's level of intelligence and understanding is simply phenomenal ....
Thank you Herbert for doing these amazing interviews with very knowledgeable guests such as Jeff Lutz. This is especially valuable during such uncertain and volatile times as now. Appreciate it!
Jeff is my favorite auto industry analyst!
Mr Musk and Tesla Team know what they're doing.
I agree 👍
My takeaway is Gary is right short term
Jeff is correct long term
Long term is correct overall
Thanks for your expertise and HONESTY. Still bullish on Tesla
Jeff, always the perfect gentleman.
Only crazy people would listen to Gary over Jeff. Emotion vs Logic. ❤ Jeff.
How many freaking videos from this channel, it’s nuts. Don’t these guys ever sleep?
How could one sleep if he's down -39%
I was surprised to hear that Herbert is married.
I was starting to suspect he's autistic (like Elon) and obsesses over this one thing all of the time. But it turns out he's a successful hard working person who must've invested way more in Tesla than he should have at a high price point. I do admit, these videos are therapeutic if you're a long term Tesla investor and don't want to spend years of your life in depression mode.
Herbert invested in Tesla in 2012. He’s far from depressed about it. 😂
I feel like Lutz’ assessment of price correction post Covid is spot on. I also think there is demand that is suppressed waiting for the MY refresh.
Thank you Jeff and Herbert
❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️ thank you guys ! Excellent explanation!!! Bought more today and will add on dips. Up to 820 shares. Long long!!!!
LOL.... Jeff, thank you for sharing your expertise and your perspective on the data that I (for one) was not aware of. Lots of nuance that makes all the difference.
Great stuff from Jeff ! Analyst doesn’t care, they just want their year end bonuses.
Damn Elon needs to hire Jeff just for earnings calls he’d school all those so called WS analysts! 😂this was so good ,
BINGO ! Fkn no brainer.
Agreed. This helped me understand.
Agree as well Jeff is better than most of SP500 executives and Elon should hire him.
Could not agree more! Jeff on calls sawyer merit, Farzad on PR!!!!
This is really a good suggestion!
Good Info Jeff👍👍, thank you.
Thanks Herbert,
Cheers
Love Jeff!!! Thanks
Don't forget that Tesla is the country's 2nd or 3rd largest used car dealer. When a ford dealer gets a trade, the ford factory doesn't make a dime. Tesla gets the resale dime or the wholesale dime. Add that $1000 to $5000's to the bottom line of each new car and Tesla has more than plenty to work with. Lov you guys! Thanks for being there...Steve San Diego
Well said Jeff! It’s so important for Tesla to keep lowering their COGS, then lowering sales prices commensurately. Zero complaints from me!
That would be an awesome improvement for Tesla , having Jeff do the presentation . I mean let’s be honest generally genius engineers suck at people skills and communication.
Brilliant video Harry, keep ‘em coming please
Great episode gentlemen, keep making the strong substantive videos you are making. The lay public is absolutely capable of understanding your information. Some so-called "experts" are hastening their own approaching extinction.
Great job, Gentlemen!
Thanks Jeff please do keep it up!
Well done !!!!
This is the "expert" who claimed sales weren't declining months ago
These are unrealistic bulls and die-hard Elon fans.
I'm both those ill admit it, but every other analyst has been down playing tesla's performance since the roadster so forgive us for trusting Elon and tesla to not all of the sudden forget how to succeed!
You people have been eating crow for years now. Is it hard to wipe after shitting out all them feathers?
Do us a favor sell whatever stock you have left and go invest in the other world changing geniuses companies out there.... 😅
Jeff has been wrong about Tesla demand and margins for 18 months now.
Thanks!
Jeff, not everyone has their own theme song:
Pow! Pow! Pow!
Pow! Pow! Pow!
Mr. Incredible, Incredible, Incredible
teaching the stock analysts
Pow! Pow! Pow!
Same model Y is $2500 more today than what I paid from new inventory in March.
For those who are wondering what Jeff means when he is talking about "price discovery" wrt to the new FSD price, Tesla are just finding out at what price does FSD deliver the most earnings. Because it has no cost for materials, the total earnings from FSD is just the price of FSD times the number of sales: earnings = price x sales. Since the purchase price was reduced by one-third ($12,000 down to $8,000), if sales increase by more than 50%, then earnings will increase. If sales increase by less than 50%, earnings will fall. At some price, earnings will peak. So by changing the price, Tesla are seeking to discover at what price that happens. Of course, that price isn't set in stone. It depends on factors that affect overall demand for the product.
Great video!
Thanks Jeff. Not a surprise that the "analysis" are taking a simplistic view. All your points make sense and present a clearer way to look at Tesla's business. The macro environment makes delivering high margins a challenge. Levers have to be pulled to meet the needs of the (monthly paying) consumer. Another pet peeve has been energy credits -- for years, analysis back out energy credits as if they are not real under the guise that eventually they will go away and are not forward looking revenues. Toyota, Honda, GM, and Ford have paid them to Tesla for years. By legacy auto's failure and reluctance to meet the US fleet standards the "cap and trade" credit will contribute to Tesla's coffers for the foreseeable future.
I learned in my math calculus class that there is an equation called max / min. You can predict using this equation to determine success of sales
Cheers guys
Adjusting prices like Tesla does is just typical in wholesale (industrial), retail is slow to follow for many reasons especially in the car industry, Tesla is much more responsive and effective, this translates in better profitability, long run and brutal for the competition.
Thank you gents!
Is the margin calculated from the ASP or from the MSRP?
Dropping car price and FSD price gets more cars sold with FSD subscription.
Yes FSD is key. Crush OEMs
Keep chanting and praying
I am discounting this post by $3,000.
Great channel IMO Tesla could focus on growing & delivering earnings and revenue and stay radio silent. There is too much gossip and talking which motivates sellers to complete thier work.
You guys are great cheerleaders.
Last thing Tesla needs to do is reply to Gary.
China’s EV sales pass 50% - Toyota Camry & Nissan Sylphy crash 60%
The Electric Viking
what is happening is a lot of people are waiting for their finances align with Tesla. Especially the model three performance which just came out yesterday. I went to a friends house. Told him about it and watched him put on his $250 down payment to get the performance I am going to be getting my performance in August, so there are a lot of people for correct timing.
cost averaging is always the way to go. Its like wisdom of crowds logic
When will we get FSD in Europe ?? does anyone know ?
My brain was thinking it, and you said it. Way better than I could and did understand it to be sure.🤣
I’m heavy in Tesla, but for 2021 prices
Just remember, these people making these RUclips videos that are so devoted to Tesla, bought in 2012, when the price was 2 dollars a share, it’s easy to be so bullish at those prices.
Please read investment books people, and buy heavy in index funds. Dollar cost average
Buy Tesla sure, but don’t make it your everything and don’t use margin ever.
It’s too volatile to make your everything, especially for anybody that bought after 2020
Hopefully this thing pulls through for us in the next few years
Hello guys
Farzad had a gentleman on a few weeks back who is in the dealer and used car space. He explained better than Jeff- with all due respect- did. Essentially, with a direct to consumer market any downturn or upturn in the market will show up nearly immediately for Tesla
But the dealer model is such a buffer/ expansion tank that the slowdown or upturn does not show up in sales of the OEM's for 2-3 months. He showed at the time that inventories were growing, the number of cars actually sold by dealers was way down, and the used car stock, which mostly comes from dealers on trade ins was about the lowest he has seen in spring selling time for many years.
If Ford and GM numbers are skewed due to simply adding to dealer inventory, then won't that catch up with them in the next quarter or two? Dealers' lots are only a certain size...
You can't really separate short selling strategies of the back-office operations at large WS firms and analyst statements. Fired whistleblowers are proof of that.
Not going to lie. I will sign up for Jeff's OnlyFans if he has some supplychain education courses 😅😅😂
I promise to keep my shirt on
@@jeffreylutz1208 jokes aside, incredible information you share!
Analysts may be right or they may be wrong, but it is they that drive the stock price.
The bottom line is that if FSD continues to rapidly improve, it will increase demand a lot for all Teslas with FSD, and people will also be willing to pay a higher price for a Tesla in order to get the FSD functionality.
And the $8000 goes straight to profit. No cost of goods sold.
Mere "improvement" isn't sufficient. People don't want to pay for a system they have to supervise and holds them liable I the event of an accident. There needs to be a fundamental shift into level 3. People will pay for a system that allows them to scroll on their phone or zone out for a bit during a drive.
@@TheSpartan3669 I agree with that. But I think that once the rate of improvement continues for some time, most people will be able to extrapolate that FSD will be capable of driving without supervision in the future and it will be much safer than the average human.
FSD is costing Billions to solve. The FSD revenue is pure profit is seriously flawed. It’s will be a constant ongoing process with huge costs along the way.
I have a feeling we’ll see even more integration with uber. I am seeing tons of uber and Lyft drivers using models y and 3 in south Florida. Now part of the those drives are literally as a robotaxi; Uber incentivized buying teslas already. Clearly, a robotaxi network is already years ahead of any so-called competition.
Were I an Uber or Lyft driver I think I'd eagerly pay for FSD. At the least it would reduce the strain and allow me to drive more hours per day. Even one extra fare per day should more than cover the monthly fee.
Model 3 performance is out and ready to sell!!
Own it, don’t trade it. The short term, quarter to quarter views are about opportunity costs of WS. Sure, if you want to sell and go elsewhere until you see your own reasons to come back- that’s fine. So much noise. I’m investing for 10 years out. People with opinions should also reaffirm their investment horizon for clarity.
Hmmm... that Model Y price is starting to look alot like the rumored $25K Tesla
At time 24:15 - You said that it looks like Auto Pilot is free. My read is, "Tesla GOT RID of Auto Pilot." Waddayathink?
Dear lord those glasses
Excellent Balanced Fact based Perspective and understanding - thanks Jeff . It’s 2 sliders , one is behind , and will stay behind due to stuffing Chanel with BEVs they don’t want , and don’t want to understand enough to enthuse .
Watch the Dealer 2nd hand stock and prices as they Register a car to avoid the Non ZEV Penalties (UK £15k per car)
That’s right
Mr. Jeff is super smart… Wallstreet is dumb. The end🎉
I wouldn't say dumb. It's more of a case of shallow diving. Working from summary numbers and failing to do deep dives into companies to better understand them.
Wall Street knows what they are doing. They are manipulating the market. Always have. Retail traders are idiots.
But Wallstreet determines your profits and losses so Tesla investors in the short term are the real losers here.
I doubt holding Tesla in 2024 is going to be a good idea.
The problem is that Gary is getting an earful from the legacy auto makers that Elon isn’t playing along with the unspoken industry price collusion where they all hold up fake prices. Tesla is forcing them down. Bringing power to the people. You gotta love Tesla!
Past performance is not an indicator of future gains. The moment you mention COVD, you are in very risky territories.
Have any, any of these WS analysts EVER RUN AN ACTUAL BUSINESS ???
They think of themselves as Geniuses, because the completes an MBA or CFA program...
What we use to call "textbook smart"...
Gary Black knows how to make an Excel Spreadsheet....does he know how to create a International Sales Dept??
Or World Wide Supply Chain Organization....
Not a Chance......
Mr Black and the rest of the WS analysts need to drink a BIG CUP OF HUMILITY.....
Sooooooo what you’re saying is that Tesla is just a car company?
Everytime Tesla lowers prices, Jeff: "its because COGS went down". Yeah sure thats why margins are tanking
Gross margins went up last quarter my friend
$8000 may not be the low for fsd but very likely to look like an absolute steal in a few years from now when monthly subscriptions have increased significantly, imo.
This seems like the worst period.
Even the market are now very unpredictable. Started investing recently when the market prices were a bit high,today I am more than 60% down!
Don’t be confuse buying the dip in a bear market, with guaranteed future returns. Just because that company is down 60%+ from ATH does NOT make it a sound long-term investment. Make sure you’re investing in great companies. kudos to Christen wilburn
....
Sphe's recognized as 'Mrs wilburn. One of the finest portfolio managers in the field. She's widely recognized; you should take a look at her work.
Sphe's recognized as 'Mrs wilburn. One of the finest portfolio managers in the field. She's widely recognized; you should take a look at her work.
.....
I even thought I'm the only one she has helped walk through the fears and falls of forex trading.....
Please how do I find this financial counselor?
I'd love to know this mentor of yours
I just cancelled MY .. got my refreshed M3. Gonna keep myself from buying any big ticket item until 2026.
" we see little to no change" when you sell a car for effective 29,900 dollars. but but but, if you sell one for 25,000. the world is your oyster.
Conveniently avoiding the fact that ford, gm are priced at single digits forward p/e while Tesla is still priced at 50 p/e. It’s really simple lowering price lowers margins which lowers growth ….and this co is priced for massive growth. The quality of the product is not relevant for valuation atm , only its growth is
Agreed. Tesla has to return to revenue and earnings growth to maintain the multiple. This is what everyone is trying to forecast in terms of timing and probability
Model Y will turn out to be a 25k car in no time ...
Tesla’s repeated price cuts are hurting demands. No one wants to buy something expensive and have it deprecated so much in a few months. Continual price reduction is damaging Tesla’s brand name tremendously. Just imagine Rolex starts price reductions repeatedly to the level of Timex. No one would be interested in buying a Rolex anymore.
"Strategic". Hahaha, that's FUNNY! Lol
I think the FSD Price is all about data. Elon Tweets, that their AI team is no longer compute constrained and shortly thereafter FSD Prices are cut in half. Doesn't seem like a coincidence to me. I would guesse, that they became data constrained instead of compute constrained.
You guys are nuts.. Tax credits doesn't certainly apply. For an Individual making 150k it doesn't apply and I don't know anyone in my vicinity who makes less than 150k!
"... has trained consumers to wait" - what? I thought car buyers take 2 days to buy a car, maybe 5 days. Hold on let me search - it says it takes 15 hours to research and buy a car. This is normal. This "training consumers" is nonsense. From one side of the mouth saying "need to advertise because consumers know nothing" but on the other side of the mouth "consumers are so savvy they wait to pounce and have the upper-hand!" C'mon which is it?
i think talking everything about tesla is now a waste of time until his comp package gets approved....could all go v tits up if that doesnt go to plan.....
Why or why can't they listen to you Bag-hodlers? You know how to hodl the bags better
I’m sorry I like Jeff but he doesn’t understand sale and marketing. He’s a supply chain guy. The reality is that price cuts are only one mechanism to increase sales. Letting the world know how great the car is through advertising and PR is another mechanism. Toyota knows this and are laughing at Tesla’s monolithic approach to sell cars.
I’ve often said that Tesla should regionally test for awareness and understanding of EV benefits and Tesla pricing / features. Where awareness is low, they should run ads to increase awareness then remeasure for awareness… you’re right, that is not my area of expertise but that is what I would do
I'm downgrading Herbert and Jeff. Why?? No good reason otherthan my boss told me to. My boss is a liberal democrat who loves Joe Biden. I suppose that's the reason. Gmc is the better company, my boss also told me that. Joe and Mary are pals he says.
FSD should be FREE with purchase, yearly subscription, and software packages akin to Ionic5N, EV are passing Tesla in travel mileage and technology ie. Ionic5N, latest Tycan, E-Tron, Air…. Tesla’s are OLD and dated
You're a fool
30 mins talk, hundreds of RUclipsrs want clicks by talking about tesla
Barry Black is a joke
Gaslighting much
Greedy stock owners are so stupid
Jeff is not a tesla expert
Why not?
And the analysts are?
And you are? 😂
whatever you say mate! He will do me until we get a real expert. And what are your credentials to judge whether Jeff is an expert or not?
Agreed. He is a stock holder that happens to have a manufacturing background, nothing to do with Tesla.
"Strategic" LOL LOL LOL