11:55: EV is actually -25 for a 25% house edge (0.5*50)-(0.5*100)=-25 At 35:33: meant to say "2 or a 3". Also one correction about slots: I think in most areas, casinos are actually required to disclose "RTP" which is essentially expected value. Slots still suck tho
Was about to comment on it, but you've already corrected yourself. Only thing i could add is that it generally varies from 3 to 11% and also despite casinos being obligated to include rtp in slot descriptions it doesn't say WHEN exactly the curve is gonna normalize. Which in turn means, that there are slots where you completely lose a few hundred bets in a row, then win big (big being still lower than the sum of bets you've already lost). And as seen in the video 11% house edge on its own is INSANELY BAD, even without volatility screwing players over.
You label zero as even in the roulette section, when it is neither even nor positive. Doesn't change anything though, just a technicality. Great video!
I think the only huge thing you missed IMO is that sports bets are different for different bookies. Your advantage play can be to book two bookies with conflicting odds. For example, you can bet $50 on a bookie who says you'll make $200, and 125 for the other team to make $200. Spend 175, make 200 regardless of game outcome.
i literally spit my drink out when i started the video. i saw the length of the video, i heard buckshot roulette music, and autistic joe swanson started speaking. absolutely love this video. this is incredible.
Casino dealer for 2 years here. My favorite thing to tell people was "it's bad luck to be superstitious" whenever they said something silly. people who didn't know what I was talking about were intrigued, people who were superstitious were like what really?, and the non degenerates got a light chuckle.
Walking past the "high roller" dumbasses in Vegas, with a drink in hand, sitting down at the 1¢ slot machine, feeding it a single dollar, and chainsmoking and pressing the pretty flashing machine for 20 minutes is the best dollar you can spend in Vegas, 10/10, SSSSSSS tier
This reminds me of the $1 blackjack tables with free drinks all night at a local casino. $200 could keep you drunk and on the table from 8pm to 8am. You could do stupid plays to offset the chute since it was only $1 minimum. So much fun 😂
One consideration with gambling expected values is that gains are taxable but losses are (generally) not tax deductible. It makes the EV from gambling even worse
@@TheIbney00 Won't that mean the taxes are only a large issue for people who win jackpots and stuff? Though not sure percentage of how much losses cover vs how much winnings get taxed. Though I suspect a lot of people don't keep track..
@@phantom-ri2tg Its taxed like all other income. So if you go above a certain income bracket, you get taxed the progressive rate for that amount. Many states also have state level income taxes on these, despite also taxing the casinos in their state already lol. Most people don't track, but for anything above $1200 on a slot machine to get your winnings you have to fill out whats called a W2-G which I kid you not is just a W2 for Gambling. As a result, any single spin that nets over $1200 means it gets reported.
@@TheIbney00 I think you missed my point. My point was since that about anyone who gambles will lose some amount over the course of winning couldn't they write off the taxes on their winnings?
So what I'm taking out of this entire video is that home invasion is the S tier gamblecore game? - High EV - High Variance (may enter a broke house or a rich house) - Even when you lose you get a cool leg bracelet
let’s say the value of a loss is the potential thievery you lost out on (by getting caught, shot, etc), the EV of a successful robbery is 1, and the probability of success is p. The EV of potential thievery is the geometric sum 1/(1-p) - 1. This is the sum from n = 1 to infinity of p^n. The EV of success is (1-p) times this. The EV of success is 1*p. So the EV of a burglary attempt is p - (1-p)/(1-p) + 1. This is just p. So, the EV of a burglary attempt can be approximated as the (probability of success)*(average burglary earnings). If you want to give getting caught a negative score, you can subtract (score penalty)*(1 - probability of success) from this.
The variance can be minimized by going into rich neighborhoods (high wins) or by targeting larger homes, you can also check if the house is rented or bought, bought houses have a higher likelihood of being rich. Avoid any house with any security cameras and attack during work hours when it’s likely that the house would be empty. This is just the beginning of the advantage play, the meta is super intense.
As a casino supervisor I can confirm that there is advantage play in roulette but it’s based on bribing a dealer who is good enough at dealing that they can “aim” their spin. it definitely isn’t perfect but I’ve worked with dealers who are good enough to hit within a section of 5 numbers on the wheel about 90% of the time because they know their spin so well. Put money on a set of numbers next to each other on the wheel and then place an extra dollar or so on top and let the dealer know that it’s a dealer bet. Can’t do it too often or the dealer could get in trouble but I guarantee your odds go up significantly
@@tetravisumthat's just more gambling (will the dealer accept, if he does will he succeed in his throw, if he does will you get found out and thrown out)
this gives the same vibes as my probability professor going to Vegas and spending his vacation calculating the EV of all the chip coupons casinos gave him
As I watched this, of course I thought "how would I game the system", but I'm not a gambler and that'd be dumb. The more successful scam is making and running the gambling method. So I thought "what's the most unfair game I could possibly make that's still addictive?" Then it was just slots.
The real money is being one of the only few that rent equipment, machines and furniture out to Casinos actually lol. You can name any price and it's a lot cheaper than building a Casino lmao.
I really like this video because it gave the high school vibe, like your teacher forced you to make this presentation, so you give half the effort, but the content is amazing.
Considering how often the devil makes deal involving peoples souls those must be pretty valuable, so who knows it might just be you lose more money on average.
I put this on while cleaning and laughed so hard at your Craps description I tripped while vacuuming and fell. How dare you lol I would also place "putting your money in a good APY savings account" on an easy S tier.
High yeild APY savings accounts are like holding a melting ice cube, an index fund is much better and may actually allow you to keep up with inflation. Learning to invest properly will be your best investment though.
@@ellocosjchushhxha This is mostly true, but it's still a gamble in a lot of ways. For example if you are investing at the peak of a bubble it can be rough, tho I suppose you could argue you can always wait 10 years for the next bubble to cash out. I ultimately wish our broken system was fixed (or replaced ideally). The stock market has kinda outlived its usefulness as tool for macro-economic growth. Obviously it's still useful to get individually wealthy, but that's not the same thing as making the system itself more functional.
I find the best way to get around the "only bet pass" restriction in craps is to bring a friend and both play don't pass together. You and your friend win together, cheer really obnoxiously, and stare everybody else at the table down. Sometimes other people at the table even join in to the don't pass club. It's at the very least an amusing way to bring some levity into the boring slog that it is to simply play don't pass/odds without any of the sucker bets. Also craps definitely has an unreliable form of advantaged play. Bet minimum and eventually some drunk guy will be at the table and throw you money whenever you roll well and make him money on his sucker bets.
Another thing to keep in mind, is that in lot of states in the US gambling winnings are taxed (for big wins on lottery at least) and losses are not tax decutctable, so you actually win even less money.
Also, even when you win the jackpot, the advertised jackpot is the amount you are paid over 10+ years. If you want it as a lump sum, that also cuts your winnings even further. Not to mention the states when lotto winners' named are published... Heck, even the ones where they aren't. You'll hear from a whole host of relatives you never knew you had. And Heaven help you if you have particularly materialistic actual friends and family... All in all, I consider the lottery the best form of gambling. The worst possible outcome is that you win, and that virtually never happens!
income being taxed like income and losing shit elsewhere not being of interest (tax deductible are for things that are deemed benefitial for soceity like charity, or can be seen inregards to work related expenses etc) to the state kinda is an obvious take on this that i am suprised someone felt the need to put it int owriting Just as a side node, if you pay taxes in a different country, you usually cant deduct them at home too, just in case this blows your mind too
I remember a story set during the gold rush where a guy managed to win at roulette a lot and he came back years later and when asked, explained that he managed to win so often cause the roulette was warped by the fire leading to the ball favoring an area.
Perrin is also the name of a character in the Wheel of Time series. There is a character in the series who figures out that the main cast are being dragged along by fate, and figures out how to use that to manipulate his luck. Different character, but still neat for a bot that won big on games entirely based on random chance.
Appreciate the music in the background; you nailed the audio balancing on it. Not all the way through but I appreciate you taking the time to break everything down. This is stuff I learned ages ago in school but isn't part of my field so I would have been very lost without the refresher. Cheers!
I'm just waiting for you to get to the slots and your whole stack just evaporates. Fun fact: The "expected return" value they give you comes with some fine print: that's only the expected return *when you win* it doesn't count spins that give nothing. Because gambling is a zero-sum game you have to look at the expected profit to see just how much you're getting rinsed every time you pull the lever.
Whether or not you choose to gamble, just be mindful of the fact that everything in a casino from the colors, lights, sounds architecture, and even the climate is designed to make you start gambling and not stop until you’ve lost every dollar you have. Casinos are nothing but blinking, beeping monsters that swallow dozens of livelihoods per day.
would have also been fun to compare the expected value of doing doordash deliveries for the same amount of time you spent gambling. I'd bet it has a way higher EV.
You did miss the most famous lottery exploit…basically some lotteries would roll the jackpot into the next drawing. So for some drawings the winnings were greater than the cost to buy every possible ticket. This often gave a 70% edge to the groups mass buying tickets. Almost all lotteries has measures to prevent this now.
@@RT4eva9windfall was different, under certain conditions the odds are functionally lowered retroactively on tickets that were already bought resulting in all tickets having a positive EV, and the periods of time where this condition happened were easy to predict. EDIT: the netflix documentary had a pretty good explanation of exactly what happened
I play poker professionally and assume why I got your vid in the algo. Just touching on what you said, the rake is high at low stakes and decreases as you play higher. However the skill edge at a low stakes 1/2 game in a casino or say 0.5/0.10 online is so high though that the high rake is still very beatable. In terms of online please never make bots to play it. Because of the release of solvers and the game being beatable there are huge problems with bot rings on online sites now, and they are working hard to fight against it. So I'm here to contest that Poker should be S-Tier in that you can actually make a living from it (and learning to beat low stakes casually is not that hard/as time consuming) but also to say please leave it alone lol. Really enjoyed the vid bro. Fascinated by this sort of stuff. Also hate slots.
Only around 5% of poker player are significant long term winners. To reach this level requires study, discipline, and volume, along with a good bit of natural intelligence and intuition. Here's the catch though: if you're skilled enough to reach that upper echelon of players, then you more than likely have the skills to excel in a more worthwhile career field with better prospects 10 years down the line. And that's not even touching on the burnout factor. A-Tier is 100% accurate.
My dad tried to tell me he had a betting strategy for roulette adjusting his bet size based on his profit/loss and # of times he won and lost(It was not a conventional double bet if loss or whatever.). I told him the house advantage and basically dismissed it and by changing his size he wasn't making a profit in the long term it was just increasing the time it took to display the loss(He showed me his simulation on how in 100spins he made a profit). Anyway, he went to the casino with the strategy with my uncle and he never spoke about it again. He lost money and never told me I was right. He is a narcissist and struggles to admit when he is wrong.
Love the bucksot roullette soundtrack in the background, really adds to the message of gambling will ruin your life. Much like real life buckshot roullette would
Blackjack has the lowest house edge assuming completely optimal basic strategy, a card counter can actually have a positive EV, but casinos actively search for card counters and kick them out if caught
This video feels like you lost in fantasy football season and for the punishment had to make an almost 2 hour video explaining how all casino games work. 10/10 would recommend
You're making Mr. Beast blush by the sheer amount of money you've spent to make this tier list. Assuming the $100k spent on this experiment is real this is by far the most expensive video I've watched
The rewards in trading is bigger than any game. If you trade 100$ there is chance that you can make 200$-2000$ in just one win. With proper risk management what you need is just above 30% winrate. I also know that it is impossible for you lose more than 4 consecutive times if you know what your are doing. You can increase your edge by using good algorithms and understanding how institutions trade.
The only thing I think is missing is "how long does it take to spend the bankroll?" If your goal is to just kill time, you'd want to find the game that you can play for the longest, and I think craps would win that. Overall, I think craps should be B tier for that reason, but the list is great if we're just talking about profitability and not considering time spent playing. Something like, how many rounds did each bot play before the bankroll ran out multiplied by the average length of time a round of play lasts. You can blow through slots very quickly as opposed to rolling the dice 7 or 8 times until someone hits the point or craps out or something
For Poker, you can still be positive EV in the long run with rake in casino/online. Compared to other casino games, poker is played against other players, not versus the house. The house takes a slice from every played hand (or typically every hand that went post-flop), so money is slowly constantly leaving the table, but good players just need to win more from other players than they are losing to rake and the rest is profit. Of course, you need a lot of studying, playing and good game selection where you are playing with as bad players as possible (because Poker is zero-sum, or more accurately negative-sum because of rake), but it's very much possible. Oh, and good bankroll management where you can withstand the variance short term.
@@user-jt2bf6ym1obut beating bad low stakes players is pointless other than for fun. And the likelihood that you are better than most high stakes players aren't great.
I worked for a slot machine certification company for a few months before I got a better job. One thing to note is that most states/jurisdictions have a minimum EV of 0.95-0.98 IIRC so the slot machine programs are required to mathematically hit that. Of course, it counts the jackpot which, due to the length of each pull taking upwards of forty seconds, is unlikely to happen over the lifetime of the machine so in practice it's better, but of course, not ever in the player's favor.
The funniest part is that because this video is about gambling, the ads I got on this video were all slot machine gambling apps, except that this video shits on them almost as much as it does on the lotto
Really great video. One thing I'd like to add is certain Video Poker machines (at least as of 10-15 years ago) would add a certain % of all bets to a running jackpot bonus if you made a royal flush. Occasionally these machines would have such inflated jackpots that they actually became +EV bets. There were reported sightings of a certain Poker Pro (real life not video poker) skipping out on World Series of Poker events to play a certain machine because he felt his EV on the machine was higher than at the poker tournament(s).
I feel like I need to say that at least in the UK, the standard layout for roulette is single 0, which would half the edge (although leaving the edge at 2.5%ish which is still quite high) and we also have the EV printed out on slot machines which allows you to avoid scary machines with expected returns of anything below 90%
I was recommended this video after looking up some gambling content (read: living vicariously through the wins and losses of other people). Hopefully this video is recommended to people that are actually looking to gamble. Hopefully those gamblers are interested in prob stats after watching as well. Good content.
skipped the craps section cuz it's too close to my bedtime for me to understand any of it so I will continue on blissfully unaware of the rules of craps
You can arbitrage bet with sports betting by hedging your bets on different sites with different odds in order to give you a positive EV. So sports betting should be S tier
Money line explanation is wrong. The underdog is a positive number. Falcons at +198 means you bet $100 to win $198. Eagles are favorites so they are -200. That means you need to bet $200 to earn $100. This is to ensure that some people will bet against the favorite in hopes of getting lucky and hitting a payday. Otherwise, no one would bet on the underdogs. Statistically, you’ll earn a profit betting only on the favorites, if bets were even odds.
Surprised he didnt mention odds arbitrage, some what of a unique aspect to gambling based on real life events is that 2 different bookies could have differing odds allowing for a hypothetical positive EV. Tho such opportunities are few and far between since odds change based on market conditions and if such arbitrage exists the gap between bookies closes fast from people trying to take advantage of it.
@@frig7014Arbitrage isn't really real at this point, at least in the context of mainstream prominent sportsbooks - and even if you somehow found one on a regulated sportsbook it definitely would be detectable and result in an account ban. You would have to use weird unregulated and slow asian sportsbooks etc To have a shot at them. I've heard countless stories of people trying to make money through arbitrage using sketchy sportsbooks and then getting their accounts closed down - unable to withdraw - with nothing they can do about. It's not worth it, in my opinion.. What you CAN do to obtain a positive EV is utilize different sportsbook promotions. I'm in the UK and I frequently get promotions like "bet 5 on __ get a 5 free bet" or "bet 10 on horse racing get a 10 free bet [or cash in some cases] if horse comes 2nd or 3rd" weekly. These are obviously positive EV. Furthermore, surprised there is no mention of betting exchanges either; they significantly cut down house edge to a 2% commission of profits.
As someone who once got a D- in Intro to Social Psychology, I find it fascinating that slots, by far casinos' most widespread game, have this uniquely "win big or lose big but either way it's massively -EV" results distribution.
Basically the only casino gambling I've done was on the Vegas strip.... You can't get 3/2 BJ at basically any MGM casino at least without a minimum bet of at least $50. Super shitty (but I was just there to have fun instead of making money anyway)
Man this is such a weird feeling. Haven't been to school in years and this right here is EXACTLY THAT. Like I'm watching a teacher present a lesson and before I know it the bell has rung... getting lost in here damn
Crazy how education can be fun when it's about knowledge, reason and life skills.. and not teaching to tests or, God forbid, theological. One of the best things YT has for it is the availability of educational material, from beginner to extremely specific--just gotta do your own research and make sure someone is legit or talking from good faith.
I’m a semi professional poker player so I spend a ton of time in casinos. It’s wild to look around and think how many people are actively losing millions of dollars collectively. Even in poker the vast majority of players are losers. You can even be a slight winner and lose money because the house takes a few dollars out of every pot. I might be in the 1% of players who regularly go to a casino and come out on top. Gambling is so weird lol
This was great, I loved listening to it on and off throughout the day. I would be so hyped for a similar video about just poker, especially if manage to get the bots to test different strategies for you. :]
your day trading part as a standalone video would be so usefull to so many people.... you are clear and straight to the point like no other. the kissable part that's where I put my doubts...
For slots not all places are secret. Some places like Nevada it has to be reported and you can look it up. Based on denominations it says what payouts are. But gambling always expect to lose and it’s an entertainment expense
Advantage play on roulette was based on cheap casinos having bad roulette tables which messed up the equal chance of every number. Particularly in online gambling on real roulette tables where you can watch the same tables for hours to develop a strategy. Part of roulette is that you are allowed to bet while the ball is still in motion up to a certain point. The player would use the starting conditions and their knowledge of the table to place zone bets on a few numbers which, due to table knowledge, gave them a positive expected value.
Your “I don’t give a fuck” attitude throughout this video had me cracking up the whole time. Thank you! It’s extra funny considering you think gambling is stupid (which it is) but yet you put all this effort into making a video about it, lol!
Baccarat is actually pretty hype to watch. The chronic gambler chinese grandads who live at the casino go fucking wild playing face down baccarat. Trust me, check out any casino in SEA, Maccau, or Australia; after slots its their biggest money maker. The punters love that shit.
Picking any of those hybrid electronic craps tables with real dice on a table but electronic terminals for each player creates advantage for the gambler as it creates many potential points of failure. Last time I played, shooter up at the table suddenly had his terminal being worked on by a mechanic, and they had to stop the game while they made sure the shooter didn’t lose any money. Pit boss came through and gave everyone a pass line win, even letting everyone bet extra before closing out. Later the same night, another shooter made a tirade that he made a bet that wasn’t paid out to him by the software, eventually demanding the casino manager. Again, the pit boss gave everyone else there a pass line win for our trouble.
Haha i kinda forgot about American Roulette (with the 00) and how bad that game is. European Roulette is bad enough EV wise, but on thr American one, you might as well light your money on fire 🔥
Interesting. I'm not into gambling at all but one of the only "good" gamblers I knew was a homie's mom who would, consistently, make several thousands (sometimes more) bucks off Roulette. Pretty sure it took a large initial cash pool to do though. Idk
My understanding is that the ability to take the insurance bet in blackjack, while stupid from the standpoint of basic strategy, is a critical maneouvre for card counters to fully realise an advantage.
11:55: EV is actually -25 for a 25% house edge (0.5*50)-(0.5*100)=-25
At 35:33: meant to say "2 or a 3".
Also one correction about slots: I think in most areas, casinos are actually required to disclose "RTP" which is essentially expected value. Slots still suck tho
Was about to comment on it, but you've already corrected yourself. Only thing i could add is that it generally varies from 3 to 11% and also despite casinos being obligated to include rtp in slot descriptions it doesn't say WHEN exactly the curve is gonna normalize. Which in turn means, that there are slots where you completely lose a few hundred bets in a row, then win big (big being still lower than the sum of bets you've already lost). And as seen in the video 11% house edge on its own is INSANELY BAD, even without volatility screwing players over.
You label zero as even in the roulette section, when it is neither even nor positive. Doesn't change anything though, just a technicality. Great video!
Did you actually waste 100 mill for this😅
@@NeostormXLMAXyes
I think the only huge thing you missed IMO is that sports bets are different for different bookies. Your advantage play can be to book two bookies with conflicting odds. For example, you can bet $50 on a bookie who says you'll make $200, and 125 for the other team to make $200. Spend 175, make 200 regardless of game outcome.
i literally spit my drink out when i started the video. i saw the length of the video, i heard buckshot roulette music, and autistic joe swanson started speaking. absolutely love this video. this is incredible.
Lmfao glad you liked it 😂
"autistic joe swanson" LMAO🤣🤣. Great vid man comedy is on point.
yo thats fr how he sounds 😂😂
I KNEW I WASNT THE ONLY ONE. Sounds exactly like Patrick Warburton.
I'm getting more Ben Stein vibes from his voice. If he talked a little slower it'd be spot on.
Can’t believe he spent $700 Million on this video, just to let us gamble more efficiently. What a selfless king
Botted likes?
@@Hexa1123😢
@@Hexa1123 Seems super likely but I can't fathom why someone would do that
@@moogobIin Same. It doesn’t make sense.
@@Hexa1123Why would he need to bot it? It's funny
Casino dealer for 2 years here. My favorite thing to tell people was "it's bad luck to be superstitious" whenever they said something silly. people who didn't know what I was talking about were intrigued, people who were superstitious were like what really?, and the non degenerates got a light chuckle.
The semi-degenerate position is to follow this by believing it as a superstition.
@@jimbomcbob7849 thats the intrigued people.
I have no idea what you meant, can you explain lol
@@theeyetriangle
its a superstitioun about beeing superstitious.
a play on itself.
oh that's a funny paradox lmao
The house edges, craps, and comes. No wonder it's called sin city.
Never leave your come on the table, first rule of dice
The house also busts
555th LIKE I WIN
The house always wins
i’m edging just thinking about my next visit
Walking past the "high roller" dumbasses in Vegas, with a drink in hand, sitting down at the 1¢ slot machine, feeding it a single dollar, and chainsmoking and pressing the pretty flashing machine for 20 minutes is the best dollar you can spend in Vegas, 10/10, SSSSSSS tier
This sounds… EUPHORIC
This reminds me of the $1 blackjack tables with free drinks all night at a local casino. $200 could keep you drunk and on the table from 8pm to 8am. You could do stupid plays to offset the chute since it was only $1 minimum. So much fun 😂
Big Iron energy
Get the dopamine flowing
Imagine the second worst bot taunting Myrta in prison. 🤖
"Don't look at the code. Trust me on this one!" - Funny enough, that's how video poker manufacturers keep making money.
I hate it when I go to the Blackjack table and I hit so much that I finally bust with my soft hand
Satori
satori
satori
koishi
how the hell did the whole touhou fandom just spawn under this comment
One consideration with gambling expected values is that gains are taxable but losses are (generally) not tax deductible. It makes the EV from gambling even worse
Very true. Makes day-trading at least a little better because you can write off the losses, but I wanted to put it in C tier to make a point lol
This is slightly misleading. Losses are tax deductible from wins only.
@@TheIbney00 Won't that mean the taxes are only a large issue for people who win jackpots and stuff? Though not sure percentage of how much losses cover vs how much winnings get taxed.
Though I suspect a lot of people don't keep track..
@@phantom-ri2tg Its taxed like all other income. So if you go above a certain income bracket, you get taxed the progressive rate for that amount. Many states also have state level income taxes on these, despite also taxing the casinos in their state already lol.
Most people don't track, but for anything above $1200 on a slot machine to get your winnings you have to fill out whats called a W2-G which I kid you not is just a W2 for Gambling. As a result, any single spin that nets over $1200 means it gets reported.
@@TheIbney00 I think you missed my point. My point was since that about anyone who gambles will lose some amount over the course of winning couldn't they write off the taxes on their winnings?
So what I'm taking out of this entire video is that home invasion is the S tier gamblecore game?
- High EV
- High Variance (may enter a broke house or a rich house)
- Even when you lose you get a cool leg bracelet
Then you stumble into that one house where the resident drags you into a very, very rigged game of Buckshot Roulette.
is the score of being shot -infinity or zero?
house edge is always in your favor if you are broke poor bc even in jail you get free food and house (therefore you dont lose money)
let’s say the value of a loss is the potential thievery you lost out on (by getting caught, shot, etc), the EV of a successful robbery is 1, and the probability of success is p.
The EV of potential thievery is the geometric sum 1/(1-p) - 1. This is the sum from n = 1 to infinity of p^n. The EV of success is (1-p) times this.
The EV of success is 1*p. So the EV of a burglary attempt is p - (1-p)/(1-p) + 1. This is just p.
So, the EV of a burglary attempt can be approximated as the (probability of success)*(average burglary earnings). If you want to give getting caught a negative score, you can subtract (score penalty)*(1 - probability of success) from this.
The variance can be minimized by going into rich neighborhoods (high wins) or by targeting larger homes, you can also check if the house is rented or bought, bought houses have a higher likelihood of being rich. Avoid any house with any security cameras and attack during work hours when it’s likely that the house would be empty. This is just the beginning of the advantage play, the meta is super intense.
100% of gamblers quit before they win big... will you be the first to make that 99%?
Some have actually just ran out of money.
@@phantom-ri2tgquitters mentality.
@@VrKx Is it quitters mentality if the loan sharks are dragging you out back?
@@phantom-ri2tg yes
@@VrKx I guess the only way to not be a quitter really is to just never start.
Finally, some harm reduction strategies for gambling
As a casino supervisor I can confirm that there is advantage play in roulette but it’s based on bribing a dealer who is good enough at dealing that they can “aim” their spin. it definitely isn’t perfect but I’ve worked with dealers who are good enough to hit within a section of 5 numbers on the wheel about 90% of the time because they know their spin so well. Put money on a set of numbers next to each other on the wheel and then place an extra dollar or so on top and let the dealer know that it’s a dealer bet. Can’t do it too often or the dealer could get in trouble but I guarantee your odds go up significantly
Wow really? I hadn't even thought of that till now...
Is it really advantage play if it's just cheating?
@ ain’t cheating, there are no rules against it on your part
@@tetravisumthat's just more gambling (will the dealer accept, if he does will he succeed in his throw, if he does will you get found out and thrown out)
this gives the same vibes as my probability professor going to Vegas and spending his vacation calculating the EV of all the chip coupons casinos gave him
As I watched this, of course I thought "how would I game the system", but I'm not a gambler and that'd be dumb. The more successful scam is making and running the gambling method. So I thought "what's the most unfair game I could possibly make that's still addictive?"
Then it was just slots.
Baccarat is also a nice choice. Especially in China.
Nope, state lottery.
@@Saltience dude asians will quit their jobs to do "full time gambling" thinking luck is a skill
@@doggowazhere7016 ... crypto bros...
The real money is being one of the only few that rent equipment, machines and furniture out to Casinos actually lol. You can name any price and it's a lot cheaper than building a Casino lmao.
I'm house edging to this video
Dude's letting it ride
She hit on my hand till I bust
Im betting on Come, sorry
This vexes me
@@alyosharomanov i am also in this comment chain
I really like this video because it gave the high school vibe, like your teacher forced you to make this presentation, so you give half the effort, but the content is amazing.
Buckshot roulette must be S+ tier because your EV is actually positive money-wise
i guess they steal all of your assets if you die, would be a profitable business then
Considering how often the devil makes deal involving peoples souls those must be pretty valuable, so who knows it might just be you lose more money on average.
It's like alchemy, FOR WHO CAN PUT A VALUE ON THE HUMAN SOUL!!! 💸
Yeah, but if you lose you die.
I put this on while cleaning and laughed so hard at your Craps description I tripped while vacuuming and fell. How dare you lol
I would also place "putting your money in a good APY savings account" on an easy S tier.
High yeild APY savings accounts are like holding a melting ice cube, an index fund is much better and may actually allow you to keep up with inflation.
Learning to invest properly will be your best investment though.
@@ellocosjchushhxha This is mostly true, but it's still a gamble in a lot of ways. For example if you are investing at the peak of a bubble it can be rough, tho I suppose you could argue you can always wait 10 years for the next bubble to cash out.
I ultimately wish our broken system was fixed (or replaced ideally). The stock market has kinda outlived its usefulness as tool for macro-economic growth. Obviously it's still useful to get individually wealthy, but that's not the same thing as making the system itself more functional.
You fumbled the vacuum? Username checks out
"I´m sure future games will pay out HANDSOMELY" Last words before going into debt
So the end lesson is... GAMBLE BIG! KEEP GOING, TAKE LOANS! 99% OF GAMBLERS QUIT BEFORE WINNING BIG!
You can only lose 100% of your bet but you can WIN more than 100% of your bet on risky odds, so on average you’ll make money just keep trying!
Never gamble beyond your means
@@notsojharedtroll23
words of a man who will never hit it big. I am my slot machine, and my slot machine is me.
@jerrymartin7019 have fun hitting it big when your debt is 3x as big as your jackpot
Thank you for this definitive gambling guide, kissboy
The Buckshot Roulette background music testifies that canonically this is the Dealer speaking
33:42 this came outta nowhere and was probably the best part of the video
I laughed so fucking hard
Same for the day trading reveal
10:59 You’re telling me this house edges?
Yes, why do you think there are cameras at casinos? The feed goes directly to the house edging room.
When you think about it, blackjack and baccarat are just edging
@@mot3600officialtry not to bust? I’ve played games like this before
I find the best way to get around the "only bet pass" restriction in craps is to bring a friend and both play don't pass together. You and your friend win together, cheer really obnoxiously, and stare everybody else at the table down. Sometimes other people at the table even join in to the don't pass club.
It's at the very least an amusing way to bring some levity into the boring slog that it is to simply play don't pass/odds without any of the sucker bets.
Also craps definitely has an unreliable form of advantaged play. Bet minimum and eventually some drunk guy will be at the table and throw you money whenever you roll well and make him money on his sucker bets.
Gamblers aren’t chasing EV.
They’re chasing the margin of error in small sample sizes to beat the EV.
...and then they do it again tomorrow if they win ;)
Another thing to keep in mind, is that in lot of states in the US gambling winnings are taxed (for big wins on lottery at least) and losses are not tax decutctable, so you actually win even less money.
Also, even when you win the jackpot, the advertised jackpot is the amount you are paid over 10+ years. If you want it as a lump sum, that also cuts your winnings even further. Not to mention the states when lotto winners' named are published... Heck, even the ones where they aren't. You'll hear from a whole host of relatives you never knew you had. And Heaven help you if you have particularly materialistic actual friends and family...
All in all, I consider the lottery the best form of gambling. The worst possible outcome is that you win, and that virtually never happens!
income being taxed like income and losing shit elsewhere not being of interest (tax deductible are for things that are deemed benefitial for soceity like charity, or can be seen inregards to work related expenses etc) to the state kinda is an obvious take on this that i am suprised someone felt the need to put it int owriting
Just as a side node, if you pay taxes in a different country, you usually cant deduct them at home too, just in case this blows your mind too
Thankyou Kronk from The Emperor's New Groove, I will now take up a career in mugging people, the true winning gamble
I remember a story set during the gold rush where a guy managed to win at roulette a lot and he came back years later and when asked, explained that he managed to win so often cause the roulette was warped by the fire leading to the ball favoring an area.
rest in peace my boy tim
He had it coming. He didn't value the hypothetical money he was given.
Guy seeing a video poker machine: "Woah, they made a Balatro dedicated console"
Ngl a dedicated handheld that plays the exact game would be awesome. Bye bye free time.
@@kotzpennerBalatro on mobile is out and one of the best games you can get on Android/iOS for sure
Perrin is also the name of a character in the Wheel of Time series.
There is a character in the series who figures out that the main cast are being dragged along by fate, and figures out how to use that to manipulate his luck. Different character, but still neat for a bot that won big on games entirely based on random chance.
Interesting! That's actually pretty cool lol
Appreciate the music in the background; you nailed the audio balancing on it.
Not all the way through but I appreciate you taking the time to break everything down. This is stuff I learned ages ago in school but isn't part of my field so I would have been very lost without the refresher. Cheers!
I'm just waiting for you to get to the slots and your whole stack just evaporates. Fun fact: The "expected return" value they give you comes with some fine print: that's only the expected return *when you win* it doesn't count spins that give nothing. Because gambling is a zero-sum game you have to look at the expected profit to see just how much you're getting rinsed every time you pull the lever.
Whether or not you choose to gamble, just be mindful of the fact that everything in a casino from the colors, lights, sounds architecture, and even the climate is designed to make you start gambling and not stop until you’ve lost every dollar you have. Casinos are nothing but blinking, beeping monsters that swallow dozens of livelihoods per day.
would have also been fun to compare the expected value of doing doordash deliveries for the same amount of time you spent gambling. I'd bet it has a way higher EV.
But then you'd be working... When gambling you'd be having fun and you can't put a price on that!
Even in the good ol' US of A, working is still +EV (for now at least)
You did miss the most famous lottery exploit…basically some lotteries would roll the jackpot into the next drawing. So for some drawings the winnings were greater than the cost to buy every possible ticket. This often gave a 70% edge to the groups mass buying tickets. Almost all lotteries has measures to prevent this now.
he mentioned it but didn't go into it, it was called windfall
@@RT4eva9windfall was different, under certain conditions the odds are functionally lowered retroactively on tickets that were already bought resulting in all tickets having a positive EV, and the periods of time where this condition happened were easy to predict. EDIT: the netflix documentary had a pretty good explanation of exactly what happened
You didn’t throw the bots into the best kind of gambling… the anime waifu gacha games! I demand a recount
I play poker professionally and assume why I got your vid in the algo.
Just touching on what you said, the rake is high at low stakes and decreases as you play higher. However the skill edge at a low stakes 1/2 game in a casino or say 0.5/0.10 online is so high though that the high rake is still very beatable.
In terms of online please never make bots to play it. Because of the release of solvers and the game being beatable there are huge problems with bot rings on online sites now, and they are working hard to fight against it.
So I'm here to contest that Poker should be S-Tier in that you can actually make a living from it (and learning to beat low stakes casually is not that hard/as time consuming) but also to say please leave it alone lol.
Really enjoyed the vid bro. Fascinated by this sort of stuff. Also hate slots.
Is your entire salary poker? Also do you play at the casino or private games?
What stakes do you play to make it your main income?
@@InsideJokes37 $2/$4 maximum buy in ship it
same here bro, play poker for living and agree in all
Only around 5% of poker player are significant long term winners. To reach this level requires study, discipline, and volume, along with a good bit of natural intelligence and intuition. Here's the catch though: if you're skilled enough to reach that upper echelon of players, then you more than likely have the skills to excel in a more worthwhile career field with better prospects 10 years down the line. And that's not even touching on the burnout factor. A-Tier is 100% accurate.
My dad tried to tell me he had a betting strategy for roulette adjusting his bet size based on his profit/loss and # of times he won and lost(It was not a conventional double bet if loss or whatever.). I told him the house advantage and basically dismissed it and by changing his size he wasn't making a profit in the long term it was just increasing the time it took to display the loss(He showed me his simulation on how in 100spins he made a profit). Anyway, he went to the casino with the strategy with my uncle and he never spoke about it again. He lost money and never told me I was right. He is a narcissist and struggles to admit when he is wrong.
Quality comment. Also I hope that your dad can come to terms with his problems and get help.
You forgot to account for the $1000 profit from the bot that mugged the other.
I never knew that Joe Swanson from Family Guy was so adept at gambling and programming
I'm glad someone else was able to hear it
Love the bucksot roullette soundtrack in the background, really adds to the message of gambling will ruin your life. Much like real life buckshot roullette would
*Watching an anti gambling video*
RUclips: Gambling? Here’s a mobile slot machine ad!
reminder, "blackjack has the lowest house edge" is how they get suckers who think they're smart in the door
Blackjack has the lowest house edge assuming completely optimal basic strategy, a card counter can actually have a positive EV, but casinos actively search for card counters and kick them out if caught
This video is awesome, I hope a ton of both gamblers and non-gamblers get to see it (expected value: 100% of the population).
Seeing "Not Gambling" on there and then proceeding to put it in S-Tier was an S-Tier move in and of itself 🤣
This video feels like you lost in fantasy football season and for the punishment had to make an almost 2 hour video explaining how all casino games work. 10/10 would recommend
You're making Mr. Beast blush by the sheer amount of money you've spent to make this tier list. Assuming the $100k spent on this experiment is real this is by far the most expensive video I've watched
*$700 million
Bro I'm high as fuck and even I realise it's not real money 😭😭
The day trading info was fascinating. I'm diving into those sources - makes me comfortable that I never got into it!
Ben Felix's channel is a great resource! Learned so much from that guy
The rewards in trading is bigger than any game. If you trade 100$ there is chance that you can make 200$-2000$ in just one win. With proper risk management what you need is just above 30% winrate. I also know that it is impossible for you lose more than 4 consecutive times if you know what your are doing. You can increase your edge by using good algorithms and understanding how institutions trade.
99% of day traders can't beat sp500. So it's more of a hobby at that point
The only thing I think is missing is "how long does it take to spend the bankroll?" If your goal is to just kill time, you'd want to find the game that you can play for the longest, and I think craps would win that. Overall, I think craps should be B tier for that reason, but the list is great if we're just talking about profitability and not considering time spent playing.
Something like, how many rounds did each bot play before the bankroll ran out multiplied by the average length of time a round of play lasts. You can blow through slots very quickly as opposed to rolling the dice 7 or 8 times until someone hits the point or craps out or something
Good point!
For Poker, you can still be positive EV in the long run with rake in casino/online. Compared to other casino games, poker is played against other players, not versus the house. The house takes a slice from every played hand (or typically every hand that went post-flop), so money is slowly constantly leaving the table, but good players just need to win more from other players than they are losing to rake and the rest is profit. Of course, you need a lot of studying, playing and good game selection where you are playing with as bad players as possible (because Poker is zero-sum, or more accurately negative-sum because of rake), but it's very much possible. Oh, and good bankroll management where you can withstand the variance short term.
If the players you're playing against is the same level, everyone is losing
@@douglasfreitas9720 yes and I said as much in my comment. However, being better than the average low stakes player is not that difficult lol
good luck being good enough to make a profit on average though
@@user-jt2bf6ym1obut beating bad low stakes players is pointless other than for fun. And the likelihood that you are better than most high stakes players aren't great.
@@nicfab1 You'd be surprised how bad players are at any stake!
I worked for a slot machine certification company for a few months before I got a better job. One thing to note is that most states/jurisdictions have a minimum EV of 0.95-0.98 IIRC so the slot machine programs are required to mathematically hit that. Of course, it counts the jackpot which, due to the length of each pull taking upwards of forty seconds, is unlikely to happen over the lifetime of the machine so in practice it's better, but of course, not ever in the player's favor.
The funniest part is that because this video is about gambling, the ads I got on this video were all slot machine gambling apps, except that this video shits on them almost as much as it does on the lotto
Really great video. One thing I'd like to add is certain Video Poker machines (at least as of 10-15 years ago) would add a certain % of all bets to a running jackpot bonus if you made a royal flush. Occasionally these machines would have such inflated jackpots that they actually became +EV bets. There were reported sightings of a certain Poker Pro (real life not video poker) skipping out on World Series of Poker events to play a certain machine because he felt his EV on the machine was higher than at the poker tournament(s).
How did that turn out for him?
I feel like I need to say that at least in the UK, the standard layout for roulette is single 0, which would half the edge (although leaving the edge at 2.5%ish which is still quite high) and we also have the EV printed out on slot machines which allows you to avoid scary machines with expected returns of anything below 90%
I love (listening to delightful kissboy talk about) gambling ❤
I love delightful kissboy talk about anything! 😻
I was recommended this video after looking up some gambling content (read: living vicariously through the wins and losses of other people). Hopefully this video is recommended to people that are actually looking to gamble. Hopefully those gamblers are interested in prob stats after watching as well. Good content.
skipped the craps section cuz it's too close to my bedtime for me to understand any of it so I will continue on blissfully unaware of the rules of craps
Thought I was the only one
This was an absolute BANGER of a YT recommendation! Absolutely loved this. I SWEAR, I can stop whenever I want to...
27:42 what do all of the different abbreviations mean exactly?
The craps bit made me laugh hysterically 😂😂😂 “it’s telling you to come, it’s telling you to not come” 🤣🤣🤣
You can arbitrage bet with sports betting by hedging your bets on different sites with different odds in order to give you a positive EV. So sports betting should be S tier
I would genuinely listen to you talk about stuff like this all day if I could
I got an ad for an online casino on this video lol
Got an ad for dragon link slots while watching this. Based.
Money line explanation is wrong. The underdog is a positive number. Falcons at +198 means you bet $100 to win $198. Eagles are favorites so they are -200. That means you need to bet $200 to earn $100. This is to ensure that some people will bet against the favorite in hopes of getting lucky and hitting a payday. Otherwise, no one would bet on the underdogs. Statistically, you’ll earn a profit betting only on the favorites, if bets were even odds.
Surprised he didnt mention odds arbitrage, some what of a unique aspect to gambling based on real life events is that 2 different bookies could have differing odds allowing for a hypothetical positive EV. Tho such opportunities are few and far between since odds change based on market conditions and if such arbitrage exists the gap between bookies closes fast from people trying to take advantage of it.
@@frig7014Arbitrage isn't really real at this point, at least in the context of mainstream prominent sportsbooks - and even if you somehow found one on a regulated sportsbook it definitely would be detectable and result in an account ban.
You would have to use weird unregulated and slow asian sportsbooks etc To have a shot at them. I've heard countless stories of people trying to make money through arbitrage using sketchy sportsbooks and then getting their accounts closed down - unable to withdraw - with nothing they can do about.
It's not worth it, in my opinion..
What you CAN do to obtain a positive EV is utilize different sportsbook promotions. I'm in the UK and I frequently get promotions like "bet 5 on __ get a 5 free bet" or "bet 10 on horse racing get a 10 free bet [or cash in some cases] if horse comes 2nd or 3rd" weekly. These are obviously positive EV.
Furthermore, surprised there is no mention of betting exchanges either; they significantly cut down house edge to a 2% commission of profits.
As someone who once got a D- in Intro to Social Psychology, I find it fascinating that slots, by far casinos' most widespread game, have this uniquely "win big or lose big but either way it's massively -EV" results distribution.
Basically the only casino gambling I've done was on the Vegas strip.... You can't get 3/2 BJ at basically any MGM casino at least without a minimum bet of at least $50. Super shitty (but I was just there to have fun instead of making money anyway)
Absolutely legendary algorithm pull, amazing video.
4:20 Delightful Richboy
I love your sense of humor man! Subscribing for sure lol. Keep up the good work, wish you prosperity!
Man this is such a weird feeling. Haven't been to school in years and this right here is EXACTLY THAT. Like I'm watching a teacher present a lesson and before I know it the bell has rung... getting lost in here damn
Crazy how education can be fun when it's about knowledge, reason and life skills.. and not teaching to tests or, God forbid, theological. One of the best things YT has for it is the availability of educational material, from beginner to extremely specific--just gotta do your own research and make sure someone is legit or talking from good faith.
Awesome video, love the statistics, love the powerpoint, love the humor, hoping we see more of this from this channel!
I’m a semi professional poker player so I spend a ton of time in casinos. It’s wild to look around and think how many people are actively losing millions of dollars collectively.
Even in poker the vast majority of players are losers. You can even be a slight winner and lose money because the house takes a few dollars out of every pot. I might be in the 1% of players who regularly go to a casino and come out on top. Gambling is so weird lol
love the thoroughness and dry humor. keep it up!
This was great, I loved listening to it on and off throughout the day. I would be so hyped for a similar video about just poker, especially if manage to get the bots to test different strategies for you. :]
"What is my purpose?"
"You gamble all day and provide me statistics"
"HELL YEAH"
You forgot the best way to win at gambling is to be the casino.
your day trading part as a standalone video would be so usefull to so many people.... you are clear and straight to the point like no other. the kissable part that's where I put my doubts...
Every single video of yours surprises me in the best of ways
For slots not all places are secret. Some places like Nevada it has to be reported and you can look it up. Based on denominations it says what payouts are.
But gambling always expect to lose and it’s an entertainment expense
this is certainly content i would keep watching for
Advantage play on roulette was based on cheap casinos having bad roulette tables which messed up the equal chance of every number. Particularly in online gambling on real roulette tables where you can watch the same tables for hours to develop a strategy.
Part of roulette is that you are allowed to bet while the ball is still in motion up to a certain point. The player would use the starting conditions and their knowledge of the table to place zone bets on a few numbers which, due to table knowledge, gave them a positive expected value.
Impressive programming for all this
Your “I don’t give a fuck” attitude throughout this video had me cracking up the whole time. Thank you! It’s extra funny considering you think gambling is stupid (which it is) but yet you put all this effort into making a video about it, lol!
Baccarat is actually pretty hype to watch. The chronic gambler chinese grandads who live at the casino go fucking wild playing face down baccarat. Trust me, check out any casino in SEA, Maccau, or Australia; after slots its their biggest money maker. The punters love that shit.
Picking any of those hybrid electronic craps tables with real dice on a table but electronic terminals for each player creates advantage for the gambler as it creates many potential points of failure. Last time I played, shooter up at the table suddenly had his terminal being worked on by a mechanic, and they had to stop the game while they made sure the shooter didn’t lose any money. Pit boss came through and gave everyone a pass line win, even letting everyone bet extra before closing out. Later the same night, another shooter made a tirade that he made a bet that wasn’t paid out to him by the software, eventually demanding the casino manager. Again, the pit boss gave everyone else there a pass line win for our trouble.
Delightful Kissboy more like insightful kissboy haha
This video was super fun to watch and really interesting! The main takeaway for me: casual gambling with friends is definitely the way to go!
private poker is basically the only high quality gambling
This has to be one of my new favourite channels, this is amazing.
Thanks so much
Haha i kinda forgot about American Roulette (with the 00) and how bad that game is.
European Roulette is bad enough EV wise, but on thr American one, you might as well light your money on fire 🔥
Interesting. I'm not into gambling at all but one of the only "good" gamblers I knew was a homie's mom who would, consistently, make several thousands (sometimes more) bucks off Roulette. Pretty sure it took a large initial cash pool to do though. Idk
Somehow I watched an hour of this video without realizing it was a Delightful Kissboy upload
I got a slot rally ad after this video 💀
I'm getting so many gambling ads after doing research for this vid 😂
@@delightfulkissboy8926 rip
Incredible, very happy you put day trading on there!
My understanding is that the ability to take the insurance bet in blackjack, while stupid from the standpoint of basic strategy, is a critical maneouvre for card counters to fully realise an advantage.
i can tell this is gonna be a good one
dude your Craps ramble made me laugh so hard 🤣🤣