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Started at the UE channel and was blessed with good gems in my algorithm. This being one. Listening to all you guys sometimes is like the wind hitting on your helmet just right on a motorcycle, and it just shakes your brain. Till you sit up straight, and it smooths out so you can just take it in. Appreciate you Bubba and all your tribe! Future Looks Bright!👊

As Lance points out, we are now entering a regime where there will be a bifurcation into a small group of wealthy and a large group which is economically strained. While that is not fair, rather than complaining, it is better to do everything we can to improve our lot in this world.

Sounds like the RSI.

Remember kids, if you set Thoughtful Money to auto-download at Apple Podcasts (or wherever you get your podcasts), you won't miss a single episode.

Interesting to hear another perspective. Personally I would rather hear about people who are building soil, planting trees and growing healthy food. Like Chief Seattle said, "When the last tree is cut down and the last fish eaten will the white man realize how worthless his money is".

Ask, Lance about the light volume of trading making the current all- time highs. It’s mostly retail driving the highs.

"Markets are back to All Time Highs" said Adam incredulously. Yep, it's good to be a bull.

As someone who has worked in data centers, AI is not going to "save" us. Those places are run so inefficiently at the ground level because leadership just wants to sit in their cozy offices and watch their stock prices go up. Many of the managers and project leads above me had never even been in a data center before! The only reason AWS and other data services are doing well right now is because of brute force demand and speculation. AWS's business model is based on scalable computational capacity, which means businesses who utilize server resources can adjust their needs as they see fit. If an economy that is 70% based on consumer spending sees a weaker consumer, then the businesses that use this computational capacity will scale back their usage when their revenues decline. People forget that the world runs on food and energy, not dollars and binary. If the lifeblood of the economy, which is real people doing real things, falters, so will the demand for AI. AI-generated music doesn't help us harvest crops any faster. If your average family is having a hard time putting food on the table, where is the demand going to be for this AI that is supposedly going to fill in the gap between debt and GDP? Improving productivity in white-collar jobs isn't going to matter when there is no demand anymore for white-collar services. Right now, those Netflix subscriptions and money going towards content creators, etc. are being put on credit cards. When that can't happen anymore, I think this narrative is going to fall apart. But people are so disconnected from reality they don't see it. They say "see, look how much faster I can generate this RUclips thumbnail with AI, clearly this infinite growth trajectory must be sustainable!"

Another stellar session by Lance. As I keep saying always very practical and fit to purpose strategy. Love his show.

Danielle offers some great insights here. I think we can regress causal factors a bit deeper. She mentions ZIRP as a cause but how did ZIRP happen, and why now? It really comes down to 1971 and the shift to an international fiat currency regime. This has allowed central banks and their governments to depreciate their currencies with debt leverage while inflationary forces were held in check by globalization and economic liberalization of the non-Western block, increasing the productive global labor supply by roughly 2 billion workers. It has allowed the central banks to increase their balance sheets by trillion$, creating a flood of global liquidity. Thus, we got very little CPI inflation but explosions of asset price bubbles in real estate and corporate securities. To understand the workings of the financial economy there are two key variables. The first is the conceptual "interest rate." Interest is the price we pay or receive to shift consumption from the present to the future or vice-versa. When interest rates are low, present consumption increases; when i rates are high, consumption gets deferred to the future. Consumption is the driver of the economy as we measure it with GDP growth. (Savings and investment are incidental since these variables are just the actions taken given consumption preferences. i.e. if we consume less we just shift funds to saving and investment.) The market rate of interest helps calibrate consumption (and savings and investment) over time, serving as the governor of societal preferences and economic cycles due to demographic trends and technology. We see this in business cycles and longer economic cycles. The market rates of interest help balance the economy over these unpredictable cycles. So, what does ZIRP intervention do? Existentially it means we should consume 100% of our product now because there is no return for deferring consumption to the future. Essentially, a zero interest rate is telling us: "There is no tomorrow! Spend today!" This is the sign of a collapsing economy that needs to get jump-started by excessive consumption demand. But if there is no tomorrow, why save and invest in new production to meet demand? Why not pursue YOLO consumption and speculation to preserve real value? That's exactly what happened. ZIRP kept our sick economy on its deathbed for a decade, impeding investment in new supply, while driving an unsustainable inequality divide based on asset leverage. The central banks were able to pursue this policy thanks to fiat currency and the complete removal of credit constraints. The second variable we need to understand is human behavior rooted in the natural survival instinct. Humans are not profit maximizers; they are loss averters because avoiding losses helps keep us alive. Behavioralists like Kahnemann and Tversky finally made this clear to macroeconomists, even though financial economists have known it for a long time. The world spinning through time imposes change, and change gives rise to uncertainty as to whether change will enhance or threaten our survival. Humans naturally would prefer to avoid the uncertain risks of change, and thus we resist it. The entire theory of finance is motivated by risk management given these behavioral instincts. Thus we get accumulation and diversification, not just in the human world, but also among all living organisms and species seeking to survive. So, yes, as Danielle points out, humans naturally resist change, but change happens anyway. What we are doing in economics and finance is trying to manage the risks of uncertainty and change in order to avoid losses that threaten our survival. We act this way politically and socially as well. These two key variables - the role of money interest and loss-averse behavior - gives us better insights into the probabilities of what is likely to happen in an uncertain future given where we are today.

Waiting to buy something cheap

25:35 I realized that since it's for 2nd homes that this loan targets boomers, they are going after the dumb rich now rather than the genaric consumer.

Typical wall st boomer, he won't be in the top 10% on the lifeboat because the plebs will take it from him.

So Lance is a prepper but doesn’t have a generator? Hm.

Kudos to Lance for his commitment during a difficult situation. Always look forward to these Saturday discussions, thanks to you both.

Ill be optamistic once were back to reality

This is the absolute best financial interview available anywhere. This is the perfect weekly update. I could only watch this and know everything I need to know about investing in this market.

Adam and Lance are getting competitive - last week Adam was starving and sleep deprived, not to be outdone, Lance managed to have a storm rage the Houston area, so he could brave traveling to the office despite trees crashing all over the place. Thanks for the show and dogged determination, but make sure you guys stay healthy and in one piece!! Heh, just having fun, look forward to the VanEck guy in light of the recent In Gold We Trust report and b/c I got in on the recent GDX, SLV trade at a good spot, about 30% ago and am now considering putting in tighter stop losses after Brent Johnson's thread on buying puts for SLV the other day.

So the stock market is basically a Ouija board.

Lance denying that stocks are not at extreme valuations historically right before a fall, is simply ridiculous . It is true ! It was true in 1929, 1979, 2000, 2007, 2021. And now ! Ofcourse it’s true. It has to do with the potential energy of a snap back. Extreme over valuation = instability that is non sustainable nature In each of these historical cases. something else occurs ( breaks$ to drive the highly over valued, unstable markets downward. It is no different this time. Expect a 20% correction, not 10 %

I just realized Lance is card carrying MMTcommie.. The government shouldn't be burdening tax payers with debt to expand the grid or energy or any other viable profitable infrastructure whether it's "good" or not. This insane senile ole joe admin and thedemcorats have continued to unnecessarily spend 50% MORE in 2021, 22, 23, 24,.. years after the pandemic is over,. unnecessarily adding $2 to $3 trillion to the debt each year than was spent the year before it started,.. while we're not even in a recession or a WW to justify this unprecedented criminal fiscal deficit spending. And Lance thinks giving trillions of tax payer dollars to profitable companies is "good debt"??? Are youphecking kidding??? These companies make billions in profits. They have the cash on the books to expand. Just see all of the stock buybacks. And will make billions in profits in the future on the investment. Are tax payers going to get a royalty,.. get cheaper or gawdforbid free energy free internet, free AI,.. by giving this money away to support Data Centers owned by the likes of Google, MSFT, META,.. who make $100 of billions in profits each year? He11 no. If the government wants to use tax payer money to make cheap (ie low interest) loans or loan guarantees for these capital investments,.. fine,.. but we should NOT be going into debt for it. It is no more "good" debt,..sending checks directly to companies,.. than it is sending checks directly to consumers. Unless again tax payers will get free electricity,.. etc. The government has subsidized these industries for as long as they have existed,.. are gas prices, electricity rates,... cheaper today?? No they're through the roof,.. while these companies spend their windfall profits on elementary school work environments, complete with gyms, video games, massages and pinky fru fru drinks, stock options,, c floor bonuses and stock buybacks. Musk laid off what 60% of the employees at X and it hasn't missed a beat. Why thepheck should tax payers be paying for Data Centers or any part of the food chain for these hugely profitable companies? What's next,... start sending Warren Buffett and other billionaires, a universal salary???? Are youpjheckingNUTS? I gotta shut this off,..with this and his ludicrous TA,.. Lance has just become too much of a cluelesssnakeoil salesman.

Not hot enough....

these market recaps are always hilarious. out of all the things said basically what lance is saying is: "I'm not really fucking sure what is going to happen, either the market goes up, goes down, or stays the same."

Famous short seller = Michael Bury. Thank you Lance and Adam. These recaps are invaluable for us retail investors, who don't want to miss the melt up. Lance would make a very carismatic teacher.

The market is not a predictor of recession.. laughable it is stated otherwise. The market is always bullish until it is forced otherwise. To think it predicts otherwise without shit data hitting it over the head is just ridiculous.

Lance's charts are great at telling us what happened in the past. TheySuck at telling you what will happen in the future. "Well here are 3 paths the market could go. A. It could go up,.. B. it could go sideways or C. it could go down,... See I was right" Ok so what do you predict now? "Well here are 3 paths the market could go. It could go up,.. it could go sideways or it could go down" "No no that's not true,... market tops never precede a recession.,. don't believe that S&P 500 chart with recessions overlaid, showing peaks happening pretty regularly just before the recession start,... . See here where the NBER said the recession started 9 months after the fact,.. half way through the recession?" "Never mind for some strange reason the Fed knows and starts dropping rates on the coming of a recession . Yeah,.. the NBER is as, if not more predictive, than Lance is at reading the tea leaves. The NBER gives you the exact date in hindsight. Lance gives you 3 options that cover all possibilities.,.. in other words,... no information.

#TeamLagEffect. T-Shirt idea for this channel.

AI may replace financial advisers too 😂

Gee, Lance, you're in a radio studio. I KNOW you can capture better audio than we heard today.

And the other thing I learned from Lance is, how to be a person -- you need to always stay positive and hopeful no matter how bad things are and will become. That is under our own control and that is the only thing that can keep us going & fighting through hardships! Be a positive person, recognize the negatives and the pessimistic -- can't have them in our life because life is hard enough already!

So, less and less options for employment for future generations. Even though we know A.I. is going to be a net disadvantage for humanity, we're gonna continue on this path at full speed. END GAME?

"markets are fine". Dude if these are the boom times, most people ain't feeling it...

hello Adam. thanks for the service you provide. can you get Sven from Northman traders back?

Both sides of his mouth lance

In regards to the Walmart discussion, for me it has been a no brainer. Many millennials, myself included, are in their 30s and budgeting grocery trips for an entire household. Walmart has a massive grocery selection and they've been expanding premium products such as organic produce, organic dairy, and even American wagyu beef (not kidding). Their grocery delivery vans have also been a game changer for us (via Walmart+).

I'm sixty and I wish I had bought the total U.S. stock market (VTI) when I still mowed lawns at 12 and kept buying it all these years and never, ever sold. My errors over the years have always been selling and then failing to buy back in on time. My suggestion to every youngster is this, "The stock market is a pet like your dog or cat or pig or goat." You need to feed it regularly which means you need to invest your money into it at least once a month, at least $10 whether you think you can afford it or not. Just keep feeding the beast. There will be times when he looks fat, even obese, and other times when he looks sickly and scrawny. Never fear! Just keep feeding him. When he looks sickly and scrawny, if you have a few extra bucks, feed him extra! Just don't sell no matter what. After forty or fifty years of investing this way, the day will come when you will finally want to start eating small portions of your pet. Don't worry. It won't hurt him. Just eat whatever you need and he will be so healthy that he will keep growing faster than you can eat and you can give him away in your will to someone else whom you love. Start young. Feed him always. Never sell until you're old and he's huge. By that time, you can eat an ear or a toe or a fingernail and it won't even hurt him. He will still keep growing. Happy investing! :-)

Another certified market classic 💪

The difference between Lance and Adam is that Lance stays positive and active no matter how unpredictable the Macro economy is, he's making effort to preserve and grow the wealth which we need. Adam is just always bringing his own and other guests with the doom and gloom viewpoints and negative sentiments -- which does NOT help you and I a bit because there is nothing, we can do to change the grand scheme of things. The reason we are here spending our Saturday time to watch this channel is to seek ideas and advises on how to preserve and grow our hard-earned cash, NOT to be scared and bearish and sit on the sidelines.

There Lance goes again, being an apologist for Pharaoh and his system of slavery. You're not a pure capitalist, you're an advocate of unjust weights and measures(aka federal reserve notes)! God has warned us not to spend our labor to build up Mystery Babylon, but all our labors have been harnessed through the use of unjust weights and balances to serve Mystery Babylon. Lance's solution is to work harder and save more federal reserve notes. Seek ye first the Kingdom of God, and TRUE wealth both temporal and spiritual will follow. Lance, get a clue already!

Lance Roberts, did you just suggest that Taylor Swift's popularity is in danger from AI? Have you low testosterone, Lance? Do we all just close our eyes and listen to a voice and melody as if they are not connected to a woman? No AI is ever going to take the place of Taylor Swift or Cher or Celine Dion or any number of beautiful women. Nor is AI ever going to replace the woman who gives me massage once a week! :-)

everyone talking about nuclear, but they will all be wrong. Solar+ wind + batteries is taking over already - maybe gas will have a place as reserve

Lance is right and practical. Adam and his bearish guests have "polluted" and scared a lot of people from participating in the market. Well, this is BAD -- given we are in a bull market, we need to do what we need to do to make $$ and not end up as what Adam fears us to become. Stop the negative sentiments, ADAM!!!!

Lance - “Markets do well before a recession.” That’s what Adam just said and Lance said no, then he says yes.

Im from Munich and I love your interviews with Lance every Weekend. Have a nice weekend

Cool report. Love your Simple Visor Platform. Keep showing it learning a lot. When it comes out can't wait to subscribe.

The more I read financial media the more confused I get

Grandpa here with 4 cups of coffee before sunrise and working hard on grandkids homework project. They hand me this project. Next will be world peace. AI will replicate the negative effects on the lower 80% of income producers similar to what the internet has done this century, and we continue the same policies, what could those lobbyists concerned for the country as a whole promote to decrease this effect on the wealth gap. Please AI this for me. Its due by Monday :)

Amen to this lady on the corporatocracy, this is exactly how I’ve been feeling about our elections. The appearance of a choice without any real hope as their policy will be almost exactly the same benefitting nobody not in the upper brackets

Adam means well, but his outlook is perpetually negative.

I'm going to subscribe. Adam, I see you nodding as I'm saying this.