Prepare for S&P 6000 (And Higher) In The Coming Years-Long Bull Market | Ed Yardeni
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- Опубликовано: 1 июн 2024
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Stocks have delivered a great ride over the past year and a half.
That has attracted retail investors back into the markets with a vengeance. Household equity ownership is currently near an all-time high.
Does this bull market still have plenty of room left to run?
And if so, what are the skeptics misunderstanding?
For insight, we have the good fortune to turn to Dr. Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research.
While not dismissive of the many potential risks to the market's momentum, Ed maintains price targets on the S&P 500 index of 5,400 for 2024 (we're nearly there, so he may need to raise it soon), 6,000 for 2025 and 6,500 for 2026.
Follow Ed at yardeni.com/ or yardeniquicktakes.com/
#bullmarket #ai #cloudcomputing
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I greatly appreciate the effort to bring optimists to the discussion and he raised some great points about mid-caps and private equity. However, this is not the first time Dr. Yardeni gives prognosis with so much as the bare minimum evidence or reasoning to support it. Not to mention his frequent self-contradiction without any nuance or indication of probability. He also diminished the 90s/00s internet development to "word and excel" - apparently forgetting the internet, email, VOIP, skype, Cisco, Amazon (not to mention the major changes with Microsoft and Apple more generally) as if they had no impact on productivity. Not to mention conflating markets and the economy.
I expect better of someone who holds a PhD. I hold one, I back up my arguments with data and some explanation of my thinking. This is not up to the standard of your other guests.
I love how at the end Ed says "If you look at the data, paychecks keep getting more and better etc." And then immediately follows up with "From personal experience, my kids can't afford to live without me personally supporting them."
If paychecks keep getting more and everything keeps getting better, how come the younger generations keep getting less and less money at their disposal?
Because laws are tilted toward old people
Because wages are a price. They are the price of labor. Inflation is making them rise just like everything else.
Inflation is rising more than the income. The government inflation numbers are deliberately underestimating the inflation rate.
@@kevinobrien9271 History has shown private sector wages and salaries are the last to rise in an inflationary environment.
Money printing by Fed is the main culprit. I believe 2024 deficit will be approx $2.5T and thats money being printed and added to the current supply for more spending. Balance budget would be painful (maybe intolerable by some) however it would stabilize the inflation and eventually our dollar will stop devaluing.
Ed must live in a gated community as he does not trip over the homeless on his way to the supermarket
Maybe he just doesn’t live on the west coast.
Uber eats? Walmart delivers. Maybe he doesn't have to go to the supermarket.
There are homeless in downtown Cincinnati, too
@@SR-ob3wnI live in California- the weather is fabulous & I rarely see homeless people. Not all areas of California have homeless people
@@trudy6132 Good for you, you found a small oasis. I’m from California, have been all over every region of the west coast and 98% of it has turned into a dystopian hellhole.
Kudos to Adam for having a bull on and not succumbing to Adam's bearish bias by excluding guests who don't walk the bearish line.
Indeed. It's great to hear from insane top signals like this. Being bullish at record-level all-time highs is not a bet any savvy investor in any market would ever make. Gamblers do though, so there's that.
@@BPoweredLove BULL MARKETS last for years , not wanting to buy at new highs seems illogical
@@scheuermann11
I mean crazy fast new all-time highs that destroyed the previous highs at an alarmingly fast rate. In my mind, that was implied, but I didn't really type that out.
I certainly didn't simply mean ANY all-time high. That would be ridiculous. Inflation alone can create new ATHs regardless of market cap growth, etc.
@@BPoweredLove I get it, bull markets often do end with fast, climatic, parabolic blow off top, I don't think we quite met that threshold yet. Crazy times with so much Fed/government intervention I don't even know if we can count on historical precedence.
@@scheuermann11 Yep. And we're in an election year, so it wouldn't surprise me that new ATHs are made this year and I also suspect the NBER won't have any scary recession news for us until Dec 2024 and they might backdate a year again.
These are wild times, for sure. And that's only talking about the US. When the global economy is factored in, it's even crazier.
No bullmarket starts at highest earnings ever.
Starts? We've been in a bull market since last October....
@@Canadian_Eh_I exactly, at highest earnings ever...
@@patat007 Yep, closer to the end than the beginning now, but still a ways to go.
Highest earnings for who? When you lower guidance 80% and "beat it" that is no cause for celebration
@@bradhamacher9869 stockmarket does not care obvio. Or not yet.
The corrupt get richer and poor get poorer...I think that covers it.
Hi FastCar5,
Point well taken but I believe it’s much more than that. 😅
All due to dishonest corrupt and evil IOUs, dishonest measures. We need honest money.
Ed is missing something key.
A.I. and technology are not going to revolutionize anyone's lives
if people cannot afford to go to McDonald's for lunch.
He even says he canceled his GPT subscription because it was useless, lol. Something is not right with his logic or he is trolling us.
Great point
Fasting vs eating deadly processed garbage may actually revolutionize your life by warding off T2D, cardiovascular disease and dementia. I know... Not to your point, but hey, it is a silver lining.
@@solskengroupllp2758 Yes, but A.I. can cast Arnold as Dorothy In The Wizard of Oz or Arnold as Annie. Worth a look on RUclips - rather impressive.
I wish I was born an eternal optimist like Ed or Tom Lee, instead I'm a pessimist who always see glass half empty 😅
But seriously, we have a government running 7% deficit, printing a trillion dollars every 100 days and somehow bulls think it's natural and sustainable? We have stocks and cryptos going parabolic and they don't see it as a sign of euphoria and top?
Oh well, they'll probably be right again, back to my hole 😢
Thats how we all feel.
😆
If the government keeps weakening the dollar they essentially force us to preserve our wealth in assets such as stocks or real estate. Or alternatives such as gold or bitcoin.
It will be over once shale starts depleting. When you have unlimited energy you can get away with a lot of stupid things. See Saudi Arabia.
Everything that you listed is bullish….
This is a sign. Every time bull cycles come closer to the end, there will always be some people would come with much much higher targets.
Top signal. And these top signals say things like "I guess I'm optimistic because I had a happy childhood". What sheer lunacy is this? I'm glad Adam had this maniac on though!
@@BPoweredLove This 'maniac' is balanced and he's been right for 2 years running. All of the doomers have been wrong. All of them. I think not being able to revise a position is a stronger sign of lunacy than someone who admits that they could be wrong.
His is an unpopular opinion on a channel that's usually the equivalent of Statler and Waldorf -- two guys congratulating each other about how bad things are. But if you followed Yardeni two years you're up 25% and the usual 10% market correction would be no big deal.
The world's best investors don't worry about markets anyway. They buy good companies at good valuations and sleep well at night.
I'm up 40% in a 'fun money' position and put a tight trailing stop on it. I won't move from my long term holds because of market conditions. This market can do what it wants.
@@pressvinyl4420
"been right 2 years running" is hilarious! What do you think this is? Day-trading? Two years is nothing. The GFC occurred after years and years of the bubble growing too large. This is hardly different.
What you're implying is "he's been right for 2 years, so he will continue to be right for more years to come", which is the most absurd argument ever posed. And calling those who are reading the conditions correctly as "doomers" is childish and amateurish to say the least.
"The world's best investors don't worry about markets anyway" is too much. You have to be trolling at this point. I cannot believe I'm actually replying to you. 😂😂
It could be the 1920s, or it could be the 1970s, or it could be the 1990s. So this guy is saying, "Well, anything could happen". Great analytical advice fella
@@elliotthovanetz1945
Wow. I replied to this pressvinyl guy this morning, but someone deleted the comment. Interesting.
Ed will be right...until he's not. And the "not" this time around is going to be epic.
So don't make money and just wait for hell to take over?
Use stop losses!
Well spoken
Adam has been wrong... until he's not. Which of them made more money over the past year?
Ed has been right so far unlike many of your other guests…😊
Adam, I am very glad that you invited Ed Yardeni. He is one of the brightest economic analysts and forecasters worldwide. He should provide a needed antidote to pessimistic views others may have. Thank you!
LOL!
Im glad that you are happy about your paycheck having less and less power on top of taxation to death and priced out of the housing market! Who needs food right?! Thats so last year! Rejoice in poverty! Yaay!!
He is another intellectual with no skin in the game. How did he do in the 2000-2015 bear market?
The only reason why the US economy is growing is the 4 trillion dollar annual federal government expenditure deficit combined with what is probably an equivalent amount of expenditure deficits in the state, municipal and private sector.
GDP is basically a measurement of consumption. Borrowing to consume will eventually not end well.
Yep and everyone ignores this when they are making money,like weapons manufacturers they know it’s for killing but business it’s business or tobacco for that matter
Nobody look on mountain debts.
Debts are not a problem, but if you borrow $10 and make only 8, then it is huge problems
US have to borrow over 1 trillions for just pay interest, how long they can continue to borrow?
Is the government buying Nvidia chips?
@@SomeUserNameBlahBlahI bet they are. The govt is also PAYING chip companies to make chips (you know, the chips act?). Healthcare (paid for by govt) will be buying Nvidia AI chips. Defense dept (paid for by govt) will be buying Nvidia AI chips. IRS (paid by govt) will be buying Nvidia AI chips. Public universities (funded by govt) will be buying Nvidia AI chips. Any industry that depends on the govt for its existence will be using tax $ to buy chips.
What is your point. This can go on for another 100 years
I know we don't have a stock market without bears & bulls. I appreciate the counterbalance & thank you for providing that. I wish I could be that optimistic, but the realist in me will not allow it. His dismissive comments on the wealth gap were kind of shocking. Sounded like something somebody at the top would say. As a 44 year-old making $40k/year in small town Ohio, I can assure you that the GDP & economic data do not tell the story of the majority of our country. Mean vs median does matter. I don't mean this as a knock & I'm sure Ed is a great guy, but a lot of folks lose empathy when they accumulate a certain amount of wealth & get stuck in their bubble. The squeeze we feel is real.
If people don't hear 'everything is crashing down hard' - they call the guest a clown. He is not the only one with a different view and I enjoy listening to different opinions! Great Interview!!!
Indeed, and those people can be wrong for years and years, they can be losing money while others are making money, and they still lash out and attack those that have been more right than them. The stupidity of the perma bears.
@@TheMountainBeyondTheWoods I sure hope you're buying and going long right now. If you're not, then your comment is meaningless. People are bullish and should be during HEALTHY bull market cycles. This isn't that. This is insanely over-valued, overbought conditions and very unhealthy. I have a hunch that you're erroneously lumping in current ppl with bearish sentiments with "perma bears".
So, everything is hunky dory?
Yes
Nope
Relative to other countries? Yes. That doesn't mean things aren't still going downhill.
YEP,.. For a WHILE,.. Longer !
NO, "Sell in May and Go Away",.. THIS,.. Time !
I'm,.. HOLDING Thru,.. the Election !
Interest Rates and Inflation, WILL Be, coming,. Down ( Eventually ) and the Markets,.. KNOW,.. THIS !
TRILLIONS Of, Dollars ON the Side Lines are still HELD By,.. NON - Believers !
More,.. MO Mo and FOMO,.. IS, coming !
Best interview to date. Thank you Adam. You’re the best.
One reason why I think 6000+ the S&P is possible is that the funds rate is not restrictive, yields all throughout the curve are still quite low, inflation is raging away well above target and the Fed seems to be ok with it, unemployment is still incredibly low, and the consumer keeps spending. I am not calling this a bull market or that we have avoided a recession. This is just a repricing to reflect the current reality. Adjusted for inflation the S&P index is actually down in real terms and in consideration of the risk free rate over the last 27 months. This can totally keep happening for many years. IMHO, a bull market is when the S&P index goes up in real terms and by more than the risk free rate. Otherwise, your risk adjusted returns are negative.
Thanks super important point.
Yardeni also pushed people into stocks in the Dotcom bubble.
Anything it’s possible once fantasy gets detached from reality,why not S&P 8000 it’s all the same ,I’m not playing this you big boys go right ahead it’s yours for the taking
Again, ED says "wages are tied at the hip to productivity" 1;04:15, NOTHING COULD BE FURTHER FROM THE TRUTH, AND IT'S THE WHOLE PROBLEM.
Ed Yardeni has been correct there are two economies
This was very refreshing. I like to listen to all guests with dofferent views. We cannot say bulls or bears are wrong until we wait and see, folks.
LOL!!
As long as fiscal dominance continues ed will be right. If it stops the pessimists will be right. Essentially borrowing from the future leaves a huge hole to be back filled however you can in theory borrow 1000 years into th3 futur3
Not believing a single thing this guy said!
Glad he shut down that idiotic mag 7 narrative that I’ve been trying to tell everyone is complete nonsense
Ed is awesome. Brings great balance to the analysis! Thank you both for a great program.
Excellent guest- always value listening to the wisdom of Ed Yardeni. Great questions as always Adam. Thank you.
Not Adam's best interview. I would have liked to see him push back on the assertion that maybe 21 is now a reasonable P/E ratio in the event that interest rates don't go back to near zero. It seems axiomatic in the current interest rate environment that the high ratios can only be justified for the fastest growing companies...
This is the thing bears overlook: the skill at whackamole. So much more has been researched and studied and households and corporations have so many more tools and knowledge than before. They underestimate the reaction to crises. Maybe going back to 2008, Lehman may have been a mistake and Bernake may have been a bigger genius than we thought. This has made me much more neutral than bearish over the last few months.
Things have changed Ed!
Exactly. This time is completely different.
Ed's great, thx for having him on. And he's been right, so far. Balanced, aware valuations are stretched, arguing the economy is not going into recession any time soon. You really should get Barry Knapp to bolster you stock of guests in the sky is NOT falling camp. It will be good to hear what Darius Dale is thinking when you get him on this month.
Nothing like the 1920’s ???? !!!!!!! Gov’t Spending went DOWN as CAL Coolidge balanced the budget with a surplus every year . Literally no deficits in any year . No inflation ?? What the heck is ed talking about?
Ed is either "stupid or liar". He doesn't seem stupid to me, so he's likely just another charlatan who wants more retail money to come in the market to provide more of his exit liquidity.
He sees what he wants to see. That's why Adam had to reply "the decades you just mentioned didn't end well."
Great interview, as usual !
Is Warren buying in this market ? Would John Templeton be buying ? Not in the US he wouldn’t .
I watched this twice. Great conversation with Ed, a brilliant guy. And Adam, great job fielding the awesome questions.
Hey, hey... Mr. Yardeni is back! 🥳
Thank you Adam
The comment of the Chinese property market collapsing being detrimental to their economy, fails to add the same is applicable to the US Economy with a more concerning issue on the Massive Government Inflationary Debt which is unsustainable, occasioning an eventual collapse on pension funds and their ability to maintain retirees with expected retirement payments !
Brilliant interview, thank you both!!
Thanks! Great show🎉
Thank you very much!!
Great guest with a different perspective.
Really nice to have a balanced expert on this channel. Thanks.
Great video as usual, but timestamps would be appreciated! Cheers!
Very enlightening and entertaining at the same time!
Adam - Thanks for having Ed on TM. It is always good to get the bull case, as flawed as it is imo.
Eddy, a classic boomer.
Americans have yet to see lower prices groceries, gas, etc.
Great interview. Ed is a breath of fresh air. No talk of interest rates or yelllen's TGA. I agree. It's 1995 and we have a 5 year bull market in front of us rather than a 1999 Top, followed by recession.
Not convinced wages are going up. Inflation was caused by 100 dollar oil, China offline and MMT experiment. Powell is only screwing the poor keeping rates so high. one of my credit cards is an obscene 23% interest rate.
Another great one. Thanks.
"K" shape recovery is BEAUTIFUL for those on the upward/incline part of the K...those on the downward/decline...GOOD LUCK 👍🏿& GOD BLESS🙏🏽!
Thanks Adam (and Ed), great interview 👍 👏
🙏 ❤️ to all. Cheers 🍻
Phenomenal interview!❤❤❤
So which is it?
i love how this guest is brought on specifically to give a different view than what is usually presented on the channel, and all the commenters all jump on him for not thinking like everyone else on the channel
And the commenters jumping on him are the same people that have been wrong since forever.
That was a breath of fresh air. Thank you. ❤🙏 💪
GOSH! Dr. Yardeni, such an interesting man.
Listening to Ed over the interview I also felt optimistic...then I looked at the technicals. I actually agree over the long run, however the drawdown before that can spoil the rosy future. When that spoilage happens is when the real long term blossoming happens
Heard him back in the 80’s…maybe 70’s? On Wall Street with Louis Rukeyser. Typical Wall Street insider type. Roses and sunshine. No clue what he said in 1980, 2000, or 2007.
Probably same story. No worries no problems. Calm, like he knows future. Not helpful as he is not a problem identifier or problem solver. He has apparently been long and not worried about it. ….Lucky Him ..
He seems intelligent and informed but just not helpful
. I prefer more inquisitive, cautious scenario thinking interviewers. “The yeah there are lots of problems ..just ride the waves attitude” is not helpful. Feels like typical easy story line many old time Wall Street advisors have used for years… I assume this is his standard approach anytime, anywhere…. I have heard worse guests on this show….i won’t listen to all this talk. Better things to do …. But Thanks Adam. You Have to book these guys to see what they are saying….bet it’s hard not to challenge this guys on the depth of their assumptions… versus just listen….. til next time.
He'll gladly take exitting positions as more retailer money comes in with pipedreams. Anyone buying this bubble now is a crazier gambler than most in Vegas casinos.
@stevenblack. Ed Yardeni was one of the economists who remained calm in the face of the Y2K fears that surfaced in 1999. In general, his track record is good. He's had a long career. For us amateurs, stock investing is the only way to supplement your savings, social security, and secure your financial retirement. Pick the allocation of stock which meets your needs....monitor it and keep reinvesting your dividends. Let time in the market do the heavy lifting. (P=e^rt) If you think prices are high now, wait till you see them in 25 years! Best wishes.
A Fabulous presentation .Pragmatic
"All companies are technology companies now." That is a wise statement and it is only going to get more intense.
Guest Ed Yardeni did well through the interview until the end when questioned about liquidity. Ed flunked it out, instead of recognizing he doesn't know about the topic up front he gave an eternal-feeling speech where he showed he doesn't know, like admitting he doesn't know how to measure it.
A good take on liquidity comes from Michael Howell, whom Adam has interviewed recently.
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is following this informative content cheers Frank 😊
SPX will hit 7,000 in august, that’s right, you heard it here first! 🚀
I thought it was nice to hear from an optimist's view of the market. His views are contrary to many of your guests but he also has a good track record. Remember he doesn't discount that there may be a recession, he just says it will need to be because of an energy crisis or a credit crisis. However, all that being said there appear to be logical reasons to believer either of those could happen in the near future.
Great show love it. Still seems to be a large disconnect between the common person and the market. Just a thought.
Yardini is such a huge contrast to Hanke.
Yin and yang
Where can I get one of those vests?
Another great interview. He has nailed it. Would you please consider interviewing Mr. JL Collins, author of the Simple Path to Wealth?
Adam, had you thought of getting Gary Gerstle on your show? Such an insightful guy, I think he could provide that deeper level analysis of the underpinnings of why we are where we are.
Revealed his bias with that personal relationship to Yellen. He might consider her smart, but she’s certainly not morally sound.
there is the same similarities with oct/nov 1998 -> oct/nov 1999 -> March/april 2000
YUP,. AND,.. I've SEEN,.. "This Movie",.. BEFORE !
Against, ALL Odd's,.. there's, a BULL Market going,.. Onward and,.. Upwards !
With or,.. WITHOUT,. You !
After NAFTA there were many workers that had to retrain for new jobs and eventually that became "learn to code"
Well, AI will kill 95% of coding jobs in 5-7 years, so what is the next job you can do to sustain yourself? We can't all be plumbers and doctors and Im pretty sure any other mass occupation will be dominated by AI in short order.
If someone could just explain that question to me, I might be more optimistic.
The new jobs are all Uber delivery types, unless AI gets those too.
For now though, anyone can sign up and count as employed, you just have to compete for very low paying jobs a few hours at a time.
too bullish. Sure, we cold have a blow off top but, the market needs to correct after that. But then, printer go BRRRRRR!!!!
Adam ,
Why don’t you bring more money managers who have got skins in the game with his own fund?
Stan Druckenmiller,David Tepper ,Ken Griffin ?
I also recommended one of the managers we have invested in for several decades ,Paco from Cobas ,who created an unprecedented records with the previous firm ,Bestinver ,Madrid Spain .
Never stop learning and earning. Find your happy places.
He is a perma bull and I mean bull.
I have a simple rule. I don't buy assets when they are overpriced on the expectation that they'll become more expensive. I sell them and book profits. The unprecedented monetary expansion and low interest rates of the past several years have rendered fundamentals meaningless, but only temporarily. You can ignore reality, but you can't ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.
Glad I managed to follow you from Wealtheon. I had no idea you went to do your own thing
So I've gone from seeing you do the latter half of the show with Martinson, who did absolutely amazing work covering the pandemic and has now admittedly gone off the deep end, to wealtheon, now here.
What made you and Chris part ways anyways? Always interested in some good lore
Ai along with EVs will require a massive increase of electrical grid capacity. That will take years. You can have the best chips and the most bad ass cars but if you don't have the juice to power them its pointless and they become really expensive paper weights.
AT 57:03 Eddie says the MINIMUM WAGE HAS GONE UP A LOT OVER THE LAST COUPLE YEARS. What a lie, the federal minimum wage hasn't gone up for almost 20 years. What is he saying? Well, he's dissembling - he is making things harder to understand. Is he saying that there is no one in this country making the federal minimum wage? He's saying the job market is tight and everyone who wants to work is doing better. What I'll say is that most of the people living in poverty work. I'll use a word he'll never use - exploitation.
Moment, this guy said yellen is smart, I was done. I think he has never been out of rich neighborhoods and thinks everyone will have inheritance.
Hey Adam. Thanks for having someone on the show who has a positive view of the immediate and mid term future. I share your views but I think it's important to keep some balance so I don't have all my money in gold or hidden under my mattress!!
We are facing a silent Depression... the last time we had so many who could not afford to live, despite working, so many living in tents, in hobo villages, living in cars, who cannot afford food, power, rent, a house... would be the Great Depression. It is hidden by flooding immigration, debt, and unemployment support, politicians decisions.
The yield curve inversion isn't the problem, the problem starts when it uninverts.
They had lots of so called intelligent stock pickers in 29' and they all got caught with their pants down..............................most to just disappear forever
Would love to see you interview Peter Turchin
With all due respect to Yardeni (who has been around forever), if rates have "normalized" and the Fed is in control, gold priced in USD would not be spiking day after day right now. (Inflationary) infrastructure-build for AI has just begun! Meaningful deflation from AI productivity gains is further down the road than he thinks. I am also surprised to hear him effectively say the Fed's perfected Whac-A-Mole will contain all future credit events and preempt any future Black Swans.
Seriously, most the chips being bought for AI are just large players trying to keep it away from their competitors, and the small guys have zero use for it, they can't be throwing away money, certainly not in this environment.
Wages never keep up with inflation, as the price of inflation is cost to everyone, otherwise there wouldnt be any economic pain.
56:40 it still baffles me that people who have at LEAST as much access as I do still believe false data like this. Does he truly believe this to be true??
1:02:00 Then he goes on to talk about how he's 75, supporting 2 of his 5 kids who live paycheck-to-paycheck and he's talking like everything is healthy. Good Lord, Ed.
Im still waiting for my lakehouse. All i got was a 2006 dodge stratus LOL. My mortgage and hoa alone has risen by 35% since 2021. My pay has not raised anywhere near that.
Pessimists is realistic. Law of entropy
We are living on government spending, how high can they push it until it breaks.
Bears are so confused 😂
Hello! Your content has shown that US GDP is less than the debt. This is a failure of our financial decision makers as well as our Politicians. Is this something we need to leave for our children? Regards
Perhaps your question regarding the wealth gap and reported consumer stress as seen in rising credit card debt and mortgage defaults, can be explained by Mr Yardeni's repeated references to the wealth of the baby boomer generation. We are supporting our grown children who have maxed out their credit and because of higher mortgages are facing bancruptcy. How many other families in North America are experiencing that same transfer of wealth to keep their grown children afloat?
adam i have one question for u........why r u so uneasy with the idea of a market being bullish?.......seeing u makes me feel i think u will have been the most relieved person at the end of this interview.....cheerios
Maybe because everything about this market feels like a House of Cards built on nothing but deficit spending.
What could possibly go wrong?
Ed is one of Adam's few guests that has an empirical based bullish outlook. Adam's other guest haven't addressed the consequences of the generational transfer of assets as the baby boomers boomers die off.
We keep hearing that AI will "augment". Whay exactly does that mean?
The bears overlooked never ending covid deficits.