Stephanie Pomboy: Exhausted Consumers Are "Spent Up & Lent Up", So Economy Will Slow
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- Опубликовано: 11 май 2024
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It feels like a tale of two economies right now.
If you ask an economist, chances are you'll hear that the US is doing great, growing faster than its G7 peers, with low unemployment and a stock market back near all-time highs.
But if you ask the average man on the street, you'll likely hear a very different story.
One of hardship, where wages aren't keeping up with the massive spike in cost of living, where companies are reducing hours, freezing hiring or actively laying workers off, and households are increasingly forced to turn to expensive credit cards to fund living essentials.
Which of these is more accurate? And are things likely to get better or worse from here?
For an expert view, we're lucky today to talk with Stephanie Pomboy, economic and market analyst and proprietor of MacroMavens.com
Follow Stephanie at macromavens.com/
#inflation #deflation #recession
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Bail-ins will also be inevitable
Yep, all those broke 20 year olds working at Starbucks who got conned into those worthless degrees by the adults in their lives they should have been able to trust, yeah they're the problem. Not the bankers who ruined the country by destroying the currency.
So i was re-striping a Best Buy parking lot Sat. Night. Manager came out , we started talking, He said people are splitting the balances between 3 credit cards to buy TV's and Video Games ????? Clown World folks....
I didn't know you could even do that, lol. I wait until I can pay cash.
That’s ridiculous, but that’s cool that you got to chat with the manager
They do it for the rewards. They're the smart ones. (written in sarcasm font)
I'm endeavoring to use cash for everything for the past few years, but...can't. But I'm not buying TVs but Ribeyes. lol
Hmm.. do they really need the TV that bad? lol.
@@jupiterthree5228 Exactly, It's like this young guy I had working for me last week, I told him, " your catching on, If you want, I'll front the money to buy some tools, work boots, etc. , you can make payments.. " he said, " No, I gotta get a new iPhone b-4 anything" 🤔🤔 smh...
Stephanie is in my top 2 Thoughtful Money guests.
Never miss her take.👍
Why? You like hearing from people that are constantly wrong?
She's a nice person though. She may be right this time with the stats she cited. Also todays fdic report of banks 517 billion underwater is scary
The middle class died from a thousand cuts.. Not just one thing. Offshoring, asset inflation, taxation, lax corporate governance, lax enforcement of laws on the top, algorithmic driven ads driving consumers to never be happy with what they have, all have benefited the few at the expense of the many. The consolidation of mega corporations into untouchables verging on monopolies. If your life is a living chaotic hell, why work if you can never get ahead. Society is disintegrating. Tax breaks, subsidies and grants for the rich don't help. There is never shared austerity, crisis has always been an excuse to transfer more wealth and power to those who generated all the inequality and insecurity. Change is coming.. I just wish I didn't feel so uneasy about it. Things look pretty bleak to me.
"Why work if you can never get ahead?". Well, unemployment only lasts so long and you won't want to be homeless. I'd say those are motivators. Beyond that, it's incumbent on the individual to choose a career that will pay a salary they require. If that means more education, taking on debt may be necessary. There will be people who take on those low paying jobs/unskilled labor, but it won't be teenagers or elderly.
All that feels like socialism. If the voters can’t stop it we will experience Socialist Republics of America controlled by corporate fascism.
Great way to put it, thank you.
Asset inflation is supposed to help but lately its only in one direction and illogical. I'm very frustrated. I have cash, I should be doing well. But there is nothing to buy. Everything (mostly talking about stocks but also real estate) got overvalued and won't freakin correct. Things barely got to fairly valued in Oct 2022, only to find out that was some big long term bottom. That is insane. A big crash in term of percent doesn't even make stocks cheap. I remember that day it bottomed and sitting there struggling to find stocks to buy because despite many stocks being -10% in a week, they were still expensive!
👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍
Thank you for having Stephanie on again. She has such a clear way of explaining things.
Nothing better than Adam and Stephanie
Stephanie, I ran a Corporate Bond Trade Desk and traded on the street for 25 years and always love what you have to say because you’re always right on the money! Great interview guys. And Stephanie, don’t continue your beat yourself up for being “early” on calling the Equity markets. You are right! If it wasn’t for this AI hype we would already be there…to your point of 10 companies propping up indexes! It’s, as you guys know, just a house of cards waiting for the slightest breeze right now. Just wanted to say you guys are a welcome voice of reason in this clearly crazy period we are going through so thanks and I hope you guys both keep up the great work! Sincerely, Cameron 👍👍🙂
Thanks so much for this Cameron I appreciate it more than you can know
It has been a house of cards for over a year and half now. What will finally bring it down? Waiting patiently for the inevitable
Always right on the money! Other than the fact that she has been wrong for years! 🤣🤣🤣
Been a House of Cards since 2008 @threemonkeys5441
@@benjaminbodkin3984 i look forward to your podcast and 100% correct predictions..
That will be a winner.
Corporations are able to show profits because they are cutting employee payroll hours. Expect the same amount of work to be done for in less hours. Hard on employees.
Pleeze have Steph on as often as possible. She's a tier 1 thinker. We need to hear her. Thanks so much.
It’s so good to see someone who sees how things really are and not just regurgitate CNBC talking points. Great interview.
Excellent discussion. Stephanie Pomboy is fantastic. She's spot on about the moral hazard of bailouts.
My son is management for a major tire chain company in the West. They are very popular in our city, and sales YTD are down 8% for this area, across all the stores. People are struggling. Recession is here. Just look at how much less groceries people are putting in their carts. People also just look miserable anymore.
The usual crowd just wants to keep it out of the news until the election is over.
We're skidding in slow motion.....brakes locked up and car is going out of control .....but we haven't hit the wall yet.
I grew up in North Dakota. That reminds me of what it's like driving on an icy road. You can be doing 10mph, brakes on, off, pumped, whatever. You still have to watch helplessly as you slide into a light pole.
Mr. Magoo reference for Jerome Powell is just priceless.
I can't take thelat imagine out of my mind
What about Yellen? She seems more clueless to me.
We are in a have and a have not economy. The FED is expecting everyone to adjust to the current condition, but everyone cannot. Stephanie is a realist.
The middle class is disappearing and either you level up or get left behind. I know it's regional, but would be interesting to know what is considered "Middle class" versus "Upper Class". by metro and state.
@@DIVISIONINCISION We are now a CLASS society, similar to Europe. How many people can go out and buy gold just to be safe?
@@ronlokk I could, but there are better investments out there. I would buy more land before ever thinking about Gold/Silver.
Well said. And that’s why fed is stuck. They can rescue neither the bottom 80% and bring inflation down by raising rates nor can they cut rates to help save the banks, housing and stock market as then inflation would rise to insane levels. I don’t know how anything is going to get better.
@@Youknowwhatscoming go look at jimmy carter and the failure by the federal govt is very similar.. 14% mtg rates.. .its where we are going..
I never miss any interview you have with Stephanie. She is absolutely awesome !!!
Welcome to the world of irresponsible spending, where the responsible adults pay for the rest. This will end badly.
Preach
One word: road to Argentina
I wonder how many people never resumed paying their mortgage since covid.
It's hard to to say. Those people would have been foreclosed by now, right?
4.4 million are currently delinquent.
@@DIVISIONINCISIONthey should have been, but there’s been so much deference.
@@DIVISIONINCISION , apparently from his other video with the real estate person, a portion of the people that were in a forebearance the bank settled up that amount and then made it a lien on their property and not foreclosed on as of yet.
I think Melody Wright spoke on this in a recent video here
Definitely tapped out. The economy is horrible for we average Joes
Thanks for coming on Stephanie. Lag effects in coming? I think so
Stephanie is absolutely brilliant! Very rarely do I agree with someone a %100 of the time but she is the exception. Look forward to her return!
I appreciate Stephanie's honesty and scrutiny of stats and details that go way beyond the MSM headlines and propaganda. These alternative views matter and though Stephanie can't say when these economic factors will culminate in a real downturn in the U.S. economy staying her course will be safer and ultimately more profitable by waiting and buying assets cheap versus buying assets at highs and unsustainable levels.
Credit card charge off's by banks is going to be epic in this cycle.
Mean vs median, brilliant Adam, thank you!
Elegant guest paints a very dark picture. Highly recommended.
The tale of two economies finally getting told. You could also call it income inequality. Mega yachts are cool, rocket ships are even cooler. Looking across our economy and ask yourself where do most people have to work, what sorts of jobs do most people have?
Unless you work in a specialized field (Medical) or the trades, you're at risk for being laid off. As far as where most people "have" to work. Many of the IT, real estate folks I see on LinkedIn who were laid off are working in fields that have nothing to do with their former career, or reduced to side hustles. Program Managers have no program to manage any longer.
@@DIVISIONINCISION I was thinking more of our retail, service and fulfillment landscape.
@@DIVISIONINCISIONeven trades are getting layoffs even in building markets where people are not buying as many homes because they can't so I even have some friends in framing, roofing, and plumbing finding work slow down to where they are seeing a normal work week instead of the average 16hr days
Requiring private pension funds to hold government bonds is the last signal to a banana Republic. It never ends well. Don’t encourage it.
Steph is simply awesome
The best guest overall - and on many individual points as well. A gem!
Thank you both !!!
Yes great interview.
I love how you put out diversified thought. There is a world of difference between her and Lance. Definitely not an echo chamber with you, Adam.
We see the economy starting to sour, which could prompt the Fed to cut rates. This will excite the markets further sending them higher. Meanwhile the economy sours further while the markets are dancing around all time highs.
This madness cannot continue.
Thanks Adam and thankyou Stephanie. Great interview ,thanks again ! !
I was premium outlet near Palm Springs this afternoon. Bought some heavily discounted clothes from two stores, one is for teenagers, one is for golfers. Both stores were empty , let alone the whole outlets were as quiet. Both store managers were talkative and mentioned business is slow and prices are high. A lot of robberies. Tourists from Asia and Europe are way down.
Always enjoy and look foreard to hearing from Stephanie!!
Another GREAT video with Stephanie, she is Fabulous and Smart! I never get tired of hearing her speak financial wisdom, Please have her on again soon.
Always a good day when we hear from Stephanie.
I live in the country of Panama. To Stephany's point about the government paying off credit cards. Here in Panama the populace is spending on their cards and just walking away from the debt. There are no repercussions to the debtor so this is one country that has already started down this road.
Wow! Thanks for sharing.
Amazing. So how long until the cards are cancelled and then what are people doing?
Ok good. The lenders should lose money if they extend credit foolishly.
You are probably correct. For the last 30 years, being fiscally responsible has not been a benefit.
The Student devmbt forgiveness is just a bailout for tge financial system and the University administrators. Given the left wing (communist) bent that the University systems have demonstrated as WOKE generators and support for terrorist organizations. It is time these institutions received a healthy dose of real world economics.
Thanks Stephanie.
Great interview!
Stephanie is awesome. Should have her on weekly and take Lance’s weekly show. Has command of stats that are meaningful to the rank and file. Tremendous.
Stephanie happy and terrific as always!
Stephanie is spot on with people running up credit cards with no intention to pay them off…..I think I’d be shocked at the numbers who have this in their thoughts.
Thank you very much...
So happy you are having Stephanie palmboy back
Thank you Adam.
Majority of the companies profit is much lower than last year, they might beat expectation. Also, huge companies changed their depreciation and Google reduced expense by 1 Billion each quarter. Amazon, Nvidia, Meta all change , so artificially earning up several billions each year. Real economy is in recession, real inflation is over 15%.
Tis a Tale of Two Economies, the Ruling Class Corporate Economy and the Working Class Economy, and it is obvious.
Stephanie is knowledgable and beautiful.
Money managers he says can be trusted. They dont even know what's going on..
My major problem is THEY will not NOT tell us how great they are. Never heard from them what year to year profits they make if any
Outstanding dialogue. Both of you are great professionals of the economy.
Insightful! Thanks!
Love Stephanie…..Class Act
Excellent interview!
I have family members in the construction and home remodeling business in South Carolina. Their businesses have slowed by 50% right now. Usually summer time is when its supposed to pick up. Slow downs always happen in winter. Average home owners are not spending on renovations right now like they used to....
Thank you Adam
A great relationship you have....content and context was born from that.
Thanks Guys x
Another great show from Adam with Stephanie. This is one of a few channels where I watch the entire stream with little to no skimming. You would think that our experience with just these limited stimulus checks would constitute a decisive stake through the heart of "universal basic income" . Imagine the staggering inflationary effect from perpetual monthly stimulus checks. Trump would deregulate, allow unlimited oil production, and kill green energy mandates through executive orders. That would remove much of the baseline inflationary impulses that the uniparty have embedded in the economy since Biden was installed as Supreme Leader Of The DC Establishment. I'd like to be present in the vet's waiting room when they summon Wilhelmina Pomboy.
On other channels, many people are stating that UBI is a formality. I don't think so. In fact, I argued that the Federal Government already pays out UBI in the form of entitlements, so why would they dole out even more? I have a feeling many people are wanting UBI, thinking it would get them off the hook for poor career/life choices.
I don’t think the stimulus given to Americans including the three months of accelerated unemployment , constituted much percentage of the ultimate amounts they handed to companies and other countries. The violent upward market charts after Covid was a huge burst of liquidity and it didn’t come from anyone who received those few stimulus amounts.. somehow the wealthy got a whole lot wealthier and I don’t think that’s because everybody got like 3000 over a year or more which is nothing.. or even the 10,000 many got in extra unemployment especially considering they weren’t working or earning for those 3 months… the paltry crumbs did not cause this inflation.. I’m not argueing for or against ubi , too many variables to really know whether it would work.. I suspect ubi could work if done some ways, and fail horribly if done other ways..
However computers and machines are taking more and more and more labor every year and so humanity needs to find some way for this wonderful ingenuity to benefit all of us in lesser labor as machines grow food, make art, bang out cars, etc etc yes the owners of such a conglomerate should be rewarded for investing and running those machines but perhaps will also need to be taxed at 50% which would go to ubi.. which would then come right back into their pockets as ppl spent their ubi.. we aren’t quite there yet but I see it coming and so do others..
@@MrNick615 Stimulus came in multiple forms. Families got enhanced child tax credits distributed monthly to their bank accounts in addition to the individual stimulus checks, whether they were still working or not. We now know that there was massive fraud in the COVID small business support program. Democrats, no doubt, structured the language of the bill to facilitate this fraud (as they are wont to do), then coached their "constituents" on how to game the system for imaginary businesses.
Thanks buddy
Always the best interview
The broken-down vehicle on the side of the road index is through the roof.
unemployment is not calculated correctly when a part time job is "a job," in the count. People seem to miss over-valued houses = higher HOA fees, property tax and electric bills. This is not quantified until people foreclose. The US consumer driven market will take a hit. All time high personal debt on credit cards is not mentioned anywhere. When restaurants go out of business due to high prices and less consumers dining, you'll see this broken-down car. If the economy looks weak on the news Biden wouldn't win the 2024 election. If you question what you see, you're challenging status quo. Energy will help you get through as we still need to turn on the lights regardless of politics; invest to beat inflation.
Stephanie is my favorite guest of yours
Yey! Stephanie is back :)
I’ll need to listen to this again because there are so many ideas, mostly scary, and I need to sort it out.
How long has it been since the American people have been referred to as consumers instead of “citizens”?! What I’ve watched in my lifetime as all of you who make your living from the financialization of EVERYTHING is that we are told the opposite of what has actually gone on….we’re told inflation has just occurred since 2008…I’ve watched everything we NEED go steadily up for the last 50 years ie. Real estate, medical, every kind of insurance, every kind of tax, etc. etc…..all the cheap Chinese shit in the world couldn’t make up for the outright selling off of our decent paying jobs…401k’s and the like are all scams, pensions are almost nonexistent and social security has been robbed by our own government…do any of you “financial experts” ever wonder why Marxism aka authoritarianism looks so appealing to our young people?! Because while our government and corporations were selling us out and off our young folks have never experienced true free market capitalism….you can talk it to death until it’s too late or decide are you Americans too and want to see our country exist as it was meant to be…why don’t you get together with others who are wealthy and we’ll connected and help us get our country back?!?!
Get together and vote Constitution Party
@@shaneamundson1192 that’s what MAGA thinks it is
One of my favorite guests.
I love your content.
Great insights - thank you.
Adam, how can you say that corporations are doing fine when we are in the deepest freight depression that the world has ever seen? This has been ongoing since Nov 2022. Corporations aren't shipping. That's means their sales are completely tanking!
This reminds me so much of the time leading up to the 2008 GFC .. except the number’s are far worse. They kept telling people how wonderful it is up till the day it’s not. But at least this time there’s plenty out there showing it’s not.
Not in NC...paying 500.00 for hockey tickets, restaurants are full, people shopping..still selling homes...and my portfolio keeps growing. As long as the markets rise, people will keep spending
Excellent presentation Stephanie. You speak with clarity for both novice and experienced.
Love Stephanie
Always great to hear the New Harbor insights and synopsis. Their analysis continues to be both prudent and helpful. Stephanie is a great guest. This was quality listening from start to finish.
Extremely good and helpful commentary.
Adam, great content. Thank you for having Stephanie on. She's the best!
Agreed student loans are problematic but let’s not be selective about moral hazard it’s encapsulated all aspects of American society and the mainstream media is very reluctant to get to the root of the moral rot because that gets us to the extremism of corporate capitalism and its long term destructive impact on contemporary societies
rich content. Great conversation. I enjoy both of you and appreciate your wise interpretation of this MESS
Love Stephanie❤
Thank you
People need to stop spending over their means. Take a break. You don’t have to keep up with your in debt neighbors.
Thanks for sharing 😊
Great content - subscribed👍🏾
I am really looking forward to your interview with Stephanie Pomboy, I always appreciate her fresh and unique views on the state of the economy. If I recall Stephanie was all in on the Gold Miners and it appears that her past peek into the “Magic Eight Ball” was spot on.
Thank you for “Thoughtful Money” and wishing for your continued success in your successful venue!
Stephanie, Mike and John, you've got the best off the best on today
As always love listening to these three, brilliant discussion
Thank you all!
Howell and Bianco have been right for an extended period. Pomboy, Di Martino, Rosenberg et al have been wrong for an extended period. Why not ask for a roundtable?
I think what is also affecting Tyson Foods is...them putting crickets and mill worms in their food. Along with people not happy with them firing Americans and giving their jobs to illegals.
Lol. You need to get back on those meds.
Stephanie is a wonderful guest.
Thanks!
Taxes don't affect consumers??? Does she think that consumers aren't taxpayers?? Where are the taxpayers going to get the money to pay the higher taxes? if they're ALREADY maxing out the credit cards just to pay for basic living expenses? Where are they going to get the additional cash to make up for services that they don't get because that money has to go towards interest payments instead? Where is the additional cash going to come from when uncontrolled "government" spending drives up inflation and the costs of living go to multiples of where they are now? "Don't worry, they can just print more" is exactly the type of thinking that over the last half century has given us virtually all of the problems we have now. It's fundamentally why going off the gold standard was such a hugely stupid idea in the first place. Yes gold had it's problems but nothing near the problems we'll see in the future as this sort of idiocy plays out once again.
50 years and here we are. Still at the brink of collapse. Gold didn't work even when it was working. Look up the panic of 1873 and 1898. Gold and credit are both money. One is fungible, the other not.
Stephanie EXCELLENT
S&P 500 hits another all time high as the lag effect doom brigade doubles down.
I have been shouting to the wilderness that it is great for the AI mania to drive up the prices of a handful of stocks based on earnings growth and potential future growth, but what is going to happen when the lower tier companies, you know the ones that are buying what the upper tier are selling, can no longer buy anything? Thanks for having Stephanie. First time I have had the privilege of hearing her.
Outstanding!
We love Stephanie
Stephanie is the best ❤
Salute And Cheers To All Stackers
She's a great one to listen to. Thank you Adam!
👏🏾👏🏾👏🏾 Very good interview, Yes bring her back.
Meanwhile today i read the newspaper this morning and they warn about how expensive summer travel will be this year due to extreme demand. Hotels already fully booked, flights filling rapidly, i just dont get it.
That's manipulation to drive up demand and get those hotels filled. As of right now, only the wealthy are taking trips whenever they want. Don't believe MSM as it pertains to finance. Be selective about talking heads on CNBC as well. Narrative and manipulation.
People have money
I get tired of saying it, but I will again.
There is a HUGE amount of liquidity in the system. A lot of it simply can't be accounted for.
good interview, excellent guest!