Stocks Down 5%, S&P Below 5000: How Much Lower Will Markets Go? | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart
HTML-код
- Опубликовано: 19 апр 2024
- WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at www.thoughtfulmoney.com
Well, the relentless bull rally that began in November is over.
Stocks fell hard this week, with the S&P breaking below 5000 on Friday. It's now down nearly 300 points from its all-time high, which it hit just 3 weeks ago.
How low is this pullback likely to go?
Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss just that in this week's Market Recap, as well as sticky inflation, rising bond yields, lackluster retail sales and the dangerous warning the NFIB data is sending about jobs.
And as usual, Lance shares the trades his firm made this week.
For everything that mattered to the market, watch this week's Market Recap.
#marketcorrection #bondyields #bearmarket
_____________________________________________
Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Solicitor.
We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.
We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor in good standing with the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.
IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.
Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, and money market funds involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.
A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.
SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FREE NEWSLETTER at adamtaggart.substack.com (or upgrade to premium to receive our "Adam's Notes" summaries to this interview & all others on this channel)
Adam, you asked why Powell would flip in December like he did just when he seemed to have inflation under control like he wanted?
I agree with Greg Mannarino that it was entirely to boost stock prices into year end so that all the bank CEOS and their other CEO friends could get their year end bonuses based on stock performance incentives.
Powell has pretty much slowly backtracked ever since.
MBerg top deflation due to gov debt removing capital from economy
Another great video, thanks! I think the market is over-heated. And I am concerned that people are focusing less on fundamentals and just chanting the mantra of dollar cost averaging and driving the market higher without considering fundamentals. It is a catch-22 for me. I mean I like stock prices going higher but I also hate buying over-priced stocks and ETFs. Personally, I have stopped buying growth ETFs- they are ridiculously over-valued. Dividend stocks and ETFs are a little better but they are still over-valued. There is some hope with small and mid caps. I am not sure they are undervalued but at least they are less over-valued..This pattern offers a valuable insight for strategic planning. Despite these trends, i have delve deeply into active trading and managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 432k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Donna Mikalonis, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape..
The internet is filled with so many useful information about Donna Mikalonis crypto..
The fact that I got to learn and earn from her program is everything to me think about it, it's a win-win for both ways.
Investing has proven to be an incredibly beneficial decision. My cryptocurrency profits continue to play a substantial role in growing my overall wealth, reducing my reliance on my salary
Profitable trading requires experience, a solid strategy, and preparation, which we lack. Understanding buy/sell ratios, identifying market leaders, and diversifying are key to reducing risk.
It doesn't matter if you are a current holder or a newbie, you can capitalize on the fluctuation of bitcoin by trading with good strategy/signals..
Attending Lance’s session every Saturday has become a ritual for us - no matter we are here or traveling outside the country. What we like about him is his fit to purpose approach in stead of sticking to any set dogma or theory. Great money manager.
you are a natural diplomat Adam, agreeing to disagree, and encouraging a variety of perspectives from experienced people, provides more information, to make informed/data driven decisions/investments. thankyou for your preparedness to invest your time, and effort into making this segment gentle men.
Whooaaa Whooaaa there Lance at the 35:20 area. "Nobody saw the housing crisis coming?" 🙄There were numerous housing bubble blogs that were very active in 2006 detailing the unsustainability of it all - the "fog a mirror" loan underwriting, the shady appraisals, the sloppy construction and half-azzed flips. There was PLENTY of warning.
I think he meant and clarified that Lehman’s bankruptcy was a surprise and that caused the entire system to collapse as everyone became nervous and big credit event happened. He said otherwise the market would have been fine and they could have managed the situation more smoothly….
Can’t say no one saw it coming.. there is literally a movie made about it. Agree with you here
I started dumping stocks in November 2007 and was completed out of the market by February 2008. I agree. Many saw it coming. The same is true with the Dotcom Bomb.
If he believes that he better watch The Big Short or read the book again.
Lance means that he never saw it coming... and since there's nobody smarter than him, nobody could have seen it coming.
The arrogance gets tiring. 🙄
Lance reminds me of the kid in class that always raised his hand to answer the teacher's questions, just so he could be the center of attention.
Yes but he bases his opinions on fact. It's just his delivery is very confident.
I know people like that - love or hate them, they can easily be the best of the best.
People who make judgments just on peoples packaging and not their substance shouldnt be allowed to vote.
@@Jalleur14325 He bases his opinions on what he thinks are facts, not what are undisputed and completely true facts. He speaks as if people who disagree with him are absolutely wrong, instead of being humble and allowing the possibility that the data he is analyzing may not convey the correct information which leads to his opinions. Therefore, I do not believe he is confident, but arrogant.
@@saucyrossy3698 I agree. Though if you are referring your comment to me, I will say that I've watched every one of Adam's interviews with Lance and this was my first comment on this channel.
Lance is dreaming about his rallies. The big boys are selling off large volumes of NASDAQ holdings. We are headed for a 15-20% correction. There are 22 big tech stocks, including AMD, that have already lost 20% of their value in 3 weeks.
Yep. Are you buying?
FWIW, 20% off that supercycle high really would not be a calamity. Just going back to 2021 pricing.
It would take a 20% correction just to get back to like last October 's price levels. I say the market needs to erase at least that much.
And in 2021, 10 year yield was close to zero vs 4.6% today which makes Nasdaq 100 a lot more expensive today from a valuation and discounted future cash flow perspective
More than 5 to 10% correction, stock market is very overvalued, economy and consumer getting much worse with interest rates so high
Glad to see one person on the podcast has some humility. Thank you Adam.
Here's the video on the context behind the Iran-Israel hostilities I mentioned: ruclips.net/user/liveKPo2K3GI1Ow
Always my favorite time of the week Adam brother
Thank you Adam and Lance! Nice to have the voices of experience and moderation putting the latest market moves in perspective. Love the fun you two had in the back and forth between upcoming drop in inflation and market orientation of “menlobear” - way to spice it up!
It is possible to combine politeness and conviction, Lance. May I humbly suggest that you sign up for Charm School with Mister Taggert. He has a thing or two to teach you about good manners...Sir. Otherwise, an enjoyable exchange.
He's a former MMA fighter from Texas and he's doing his best 😅
Love Lance, the one guest I never skip.
You must watch a lot. He is here every week
@@millsfinancialgroup That is correct.
@@Cos_Why_Not maybe Lance needs his own show. I would love to hear some differing and correct viewpoints from time to time. Lance is wrong a lot
@@millsfinancialgroup Lance does his own RIA videos, but it's more of a "radio show" style. I like the conversational format better here.
@@millsfinancialgroup I like Adam's format a lot. He's very good at what he does, and he rolls well with Lance. Lance is allowed to be wrong, as are we all, but I'm always keen to hear Lance's view on things even if I disagree or he turns out to be wrong in the end.
Lance on the record, not a washout coming
Thank you, Adam and Lance. Great work as always ...
Just found Adam again, listened to a two hour interview of him from a month ago, always have a good feeling about this man, intuition is a thing!
And by Definition, YOU have the BEST Intuition, right?
Your image is a lot clearer this week, Adam. Usually it's quite fuzzy. Love the show.
Lance has been spot on for the short-term movements.
I started listening to him on Adam's show around September of 2022. He was the ONLY I.A. talking about an upturn in the markets at that time.
Interesting views. Basically "hold" don't panic...refreshing. This channel has for the most part been promoting the coming crash and scores of people with a grim outlook. Nice with a change...
I love the way Lance disagrees with Adam’s points and then goes on to agree with them is his dissertation.
The mass of facts and figures you present on this weekly roundup is just what a trader needs to make good decisions.
The NFIB report, the decline in bank reserves, the money market draw downs biggest since GFC, the blackout on buy backs, all essential knowledge… add those factors to the considerable CTA’s dump last week, the CRE disaster waiting to explode, the decline in M2 money supply, which has only happened a couple of times, before major turning points… JEEZ!
Brilliant work guys!
THANK YOU BOTH🙏🙏🙏
Thank you Adam and Lance.
The only thing I dislike about these Saturday interviews is Lance's arrogance. I wish humilty was in his word bank.
It's not a matter of humility, it's a matter of being right or wrong and I'm more inclined that Lance is right about inflation.
Compared to many he is not arrogant at all
@franciscoa242 I don't believe humility has anything to do with right or wrong. I agree with him, I just dont enjoy sifting through his bragging and arrogance for his insight. Have a good weekend Fransico!
I have gotten used to Lance's arrogance, and much prefer it to Adam's reticence
I don't mind that. I find it a nice contrast between the two of them.
I love Lance Roberts reviews, so much data!
Great description of the financial crisis and the risk of being super cautious
Thanks gentlemen, listen to this every week
As always, great show today Adam.
I am a small business, this SB discussion is something that matters to both me and the entire western economy
Lance, on the record: Its a 5% dip, and “its a buy the dip moment” oh wait, now saying more downside risk
I don’t think anybody can tell the exact time or amount of a correction.
For timing what works well for me is (swing trading) using a 4 hour and daily chart. When price goes through the 20 sma and retests it but is unable to break back through it... that is a short. If it breaks through it and comes back down to the 20 sma and that holds. That is a long. The 4 hour chart just gets me better price entries. This works day trading too, but I don't recommend most do that. They don't have the discipline or right frame of mind to day trade. They would just be giving their money to someone like me.
@@Gr8ERDoc Indeed no one knows exactly, and that is why Lance usually double speaks to cover both up and down but is repeatedly saying always buy the dip. So far, I am going with my prior that: weakness starts in April and bearish June to June. I am fine with being wrong (lets see) but hate the dogma Lance gives.
You aren't an effective listener. Go back and listen to them again.
He is saying.. down 5.5%, up 4%, down 6%, up 3%, down 6%, ect…. From peak to trough he is saying total 10%. Just seesawing the way down over weeks or months.
Lance has a good point, how many of Adam’s guests are making money in the market, talking their book, vs just trying to sell some newsletters. It is easy to have an opinion about the market when you have no skin in the game. Sometime to have credibility, you have to eat your own cooking. This is why I respect Lance, he has skin in the game, he is playing with real money, vs make believe like most of Adam’s guests
I like this take. The thing is that there is nothing wrong with Adam having these people on his show. It is just good to understand this though. There is a huge difference between theory and application. A good book to read would be Skin in the Game by Nassim Nicholas Taleb which supports what you just said.
Thanks to Adam and Lance for another great market wrap-up!
The back and forth and the wealth of information is fantastic!
Thanks guys, a much enjoyed conversation. 😊
You guys are doing great work.
Most people buy into the market when they have MONEY and think they are not going to lose their job, so that means most people buy the most near the end of the economic up cycle (near market tops) and sell near market lows when people have less money and no job.
Lance Robert's is by far the superstar cleanup hitter of your Thoughtful Money lineup. Clear common sense analytics. Bravo
Great show guys
I always love and appreciate Lance and his level head approach to everything. He's the best.
The best analyst regarding geopolitical conflict is Brian Berletic on his non monetized channel The New Atlas, I rely on him
Good job guys!! See you next week!
Great insight as always.
'Nobody saw the housing crisis coming'. I remember watching a film with Christian Bale, Ryan Gosling and Steve Carrell on the subject of how some people saw the housing crisis coming.
I was thinking the exact same thing, there were a few that definitely knew a bubble was present and subsequent reset was on the horizon. They, like most contrarians, were a little early but knew how to capitalize.
I did. I took my wife when my little shit box of a house in SoCal got up to $700k we were getting ready to have a housing crash. That was in 2006. Guess where my house value is now? Almost 800k. It is not worth that... no way even close. Which means we are gettting ready to have another one of those bad boys. This go around we get the Dot Com (Ai stock mania) and the Great Depression (caused by credit) at the same time.
And they were considered idiots and then even after it happened the talking heads were still bitter about it
Adam has NEVER interviewed Peter Schiff through all his time at Wealthion AND here. Pathetic.
@@bpb5541 exactly this. We have all the things you say, plus talk of Central Bank Digital Currency, the global flight from the dollar (albeit slowly), absurd pandemic responses, absurd wars, extreme gold price volatility (last Friday), uncontrolled borders. Also, in 2008/9 no-one was confused on the subject of what a woman is. All the signs of a civilisation on the brink are in clear view.
such great questions Adam. always
Honestly guys, you're like my weekly therapy!
Thank you!!
Thanks Adam and Lance
Nice episode gentlemen
This is my favorite interview every Saturday. Lance does a great job explaining the market each and every week.
he is one of the best
Now lance is arguing the premise that Netflix subscribers numbers are irrelevant. Only finances.
revenue per subscriber reflects revenue growth. Makes sense to me.
@@paulherbert5548 lacking info on business growth, when market reaches saturation
I disagree with Lance inflation outlook. Longer we stay high or higher , the more people wages need to go up and more they will pay for housing. Therefore next year inflation will be higher especially if they cut. Love the conversation.
That small business report was quit sobering. If the bottom falls out you won't have to worry about inflation.
Lance logic: 15 years bull market means bear’s market not likely
A good advisor doesn't care. Ride it up and hedge it down. The market is not going to the moon, nor is it going to 0.
@@curtisstewart3179 ride it then hedge is why I watch, but have seen over 40 years the “professionals” do much worse than the SP500.
@@ZemonaCoffees Today's professionals, experienced ones too in their 40s or 50s, have lived the chart Lance showed. They only understand that "markets recover within a few years and a fresh multi-year bull market begins". They did not manage investments through the late 1960s to early 1980s when it merely churned and flopped.
And the more folks that say that crap at these crazy bubble levels... the more bearish I get.
Calm Dr.Burry
There's a difference in focus and emphasis between Adam and Lance. Adam is concerned with social and political crises and the underlying long-term economic fundamentals, while Lance is primarily focused on managing market trends and timing for asset portfolios. There is often a large divergence between the two foci.
Thank you, great session. One point that was not raised, is higher for longer actually inflationary due to rising debt and interest payments (to some).
Lance is right on inflation going down as the government is reporting it… but structurally we will have higher inflation for the next few decades. Government is using toilet paper math for their inflation numbers. Lance is right saying its going down and so are others saying its going up.
Inflation is not even going down by government measures? What are you talking about? Lance is so flip floppy on inflation and generally wrong about everything else
Lance never thinks that consumer debt or government debt will ever mean anything . Maybe he knows something I don't. Car repossessions keep climbing not sure if that matters either.
Love you Lance. Texas raised you well! Can't say enough how awesome you guys are. Helping turn my life around. In USVI rent going down. Lance right about that at least here. Sucky part is the small CPI part, food, through roof. Mc Donald's Hamburger 10 bucks.
Thank you very much...
Thanks!
Wow -- Thank you very much!!!
Dollar cost averaging takes out the lumps
Not with a market crash... and not if you are older than 50. If you are 20 .. hell yes just buy buy buy as much as you can. If you are over 50 and you lose half or more of you account value. You might not ever be able to retire or you might have to go back to work. Your statement is very dangerous, and its lazy. I think 401k passive investors are getting ready to get their faces ripped off because they know nothing about risk / money managment or when to sell for a profit or a loss. Hell they have no idea why the hell they got into a stock or what is going to get them out. They have bought into the nonsense that is you can't time the market. What people need to admit is "they can't time the market". I do it all the time with great success but it took a lot of work, dedication, and sacrifice. I would be very careful recommending to folks just to buy ... especially if it is going down. Folks are different ages, have different account sizes, different pain thresholds etc.
great discussion as always. I liked the reminder to say optimistic. The bearish view does tend to dominate and if you listen to it, you'd never make any moves at all.
Trend is your friend only applies to up markets?
We took out the 20, 50, and almost the 100 day in a couple trading days… that was pretty quick…
We’re barely sitting in the 100 day now-200 next
It's gonna get to the 150 day and then climb back up to a new ATH
@@Cos_Why_Not I doubt it… it may have some normal
Bounces off support lines but gonna be lower highs from here out.
@@JC-cf4rs Based on what?
On cristal ball.
@@Cos_Why_Not based on the same thing you’re looking at.. data
So valuable for me to listen to this weekly & learn so much as a beginning trader as well as knowledgeable in financial market...Appreciated everyone...Love the stocks from Lance..BTW can you mention mid & small cap stocks? Buy the Dip & Sellbthe Rip is my smarter tactics today...
I am so grateful for these great weekly analyses. I used to listen to Schiff and others scaremongering and actually as Lance says, lost out by over trimming my portfolio multiple times during various scares. In fact my worst investment decision was selling Etsy in 2020 at 40. It then went to 200 🥴. Anyway at least I am learning now!
Yes it makes sense to understand one's own countenance. If you can admit to being nervous and bearish on the markets most of the time it's helpful to listen to someone make a bull case in a sensible manner. Lance isn't a "to the moon" bull. His basic point in most videos, is that you have to work with the market that exists.
Losing more and more respect for Lance as I listen to these podcasts. He is coping so hard.
Thanks and will you and Lance discuss your perspectives on the Trend Following method the CTA's use....some very successfully? That is something I have never heard on your show and maybe have one like Jerry Parker or another as a guest.
Thanks Adam...appreciate another week of interviews. Struggling to understand how economic activity is on the decline and yet Lance is calling for a continuation of the bull market...not a criticism just trying to wrap my head around it. It seems since fundamentals are no longer relevant is the stock market nothing but manipulation.
Because he is seeing what has happened before. We've had declining living standards for 30 years, yet the market went up.
I get it!
The housing market is 44% then that has more effect on Inflation
If the real-estate market drops this will lower inflation
Dear Adam please find a real technician like Milton Berg!
It's odd but kind of funny, when Adam poses a question, more times than not Lance will start with "yeah, no" or sometimes he agrees with Adam's general position/inquiry and still says "no . . ." Love this weekend show, almost never ever miss it; I just think that's a weird quirk. Those doubting, go back in this podcast or any of the others over the last few months and you hear it "yeah, no"
The sad truth is, yeah Lance is right that the FED will step in and rescue once again. Why I label this as sad is that it is not a good thing that the debt as a result will continue to rise exponentially and continue to destroy this country's future and its currency. If I had grandchildren, I'd be worried about them. Politicians only care about current time on their own watch. Selfish.
The governments are all insolvent. They got no other choice.
The Fed will step in, but Powell won't.
@@FreeSpeech4All Fed don't have no control. They are forced into the decions they make, but ultimately its down to liquidity.
Regardless, fed will step in, and Powell is chair, so he will be participating. Regardless of whether he is a puppet or it is against his better judgment, he will be part of it.
@@SP-cx2qi Well, the Fed does the bidding of the banks that own it, and the overlords of those banks. They have a good bit of control, but what they want to happen is very different from what they tell you they want to happen.
Lance talks about there being no crash since 2009 and how you're better staying invested through the ups and downs of stock market cycles and how doomsayers are usually wrong. And yet I was alive during 2008/2009 and there was nothing like the global insanity that there is now. Sometimes an imminent crash is staring you in the face.
That is true. But don't underestimate the importance financial markets play for governments. They do everything they can to please them.
Great as always.
I need to start taking profits higher and buying some VIX for these types of moves.
It’s ok to be super bearish Adam!
that's what makes this program so entertaining. Point, counterpoint!
Ain't getting out of bed for 5%. 10% or more before moving out of money markets
I just read blog from Lance's web, about small companies expectation drop, sale drop, investment drop...
These drop make me thinking about professor Steve just said about M2 money supply. More chance we have recession next year.
The delayed could be Gov spending too much right now
Loss aversion is not just 1 of 9 behavioral traits; it is by far #1.
Love it 😀
1:34:44 most people don’t have jobs where they make enough to save anything. Our groceries have doubled over the past 3 years, our RV lot rent (we live in an RV) is $700 plus electricity, that’s how much we paid in rent for our first apartment 15 years ago, our truck insurance went up 50% this past fall, we don’t have health insurance but our health share is like $700 a month which is less than insurance at $1400 a month for a family of 5. People don’t save because it costs too much to live.
I don't agree about "most". You are talking about yourself and your peers where you live. You'd be surprised at how many wealthy folks are literally near you. They just don't tell you because they live below their means.
@@DIVISIONINCISION we used to save 40% of our income but slowly we can save less and and less. My husbands job doesn’t get pay increases besides small COLA. The median would be better for Lance to use, the average takes into account the top 1% and skews the numbers. The median 65 year old only has $400k saved at retirement. Not enough to retire.
I’ve not been watching the news. Just woke up and caught the tech stock/crypto news. Where do I go next? ATTM of course!
@Adam and Lance. Wonderful episode. However I would challenge that the way The Fed is painting the picture is dishonest. Their mandate is to the entire country. Not the elite. The inflation data should be weighted as a percentage of avg usa income and also count interest in the price of things like mortgages, insurance, car payments and revolving credit. If i measure rain by inches and anything under 3" of rain means not raining, majority of times it wont be raining.
Everything is a trade off. Higher inflation is reduced by higher interest rates, right? How much either affects individuals depends on how each individual is positioned. But in general, those that own assets could benefit from both, right?
I love that Adam can admit to and own his overriding bearishness. The only bias that can hurt you is the one you don't see.
Agreed if we say we arent bias that is the second that we are probably being the most biased because we do not see it and it always exists.
I can agree with Lance on the Fed will do QE when recession could be in the radar.... the difference here is that we are in a different situation and starting point where inflation could restart very quickly and going to zero, as he said, will be very unlikely.. I believe.
Agree. I'm heavy into bond funds - but probably would begin shedding positions after just a few rate cuts. Optimism for another round of ZIRP will drive bonds too high, too quickly.
QE is not possible with current Congress
@@ZemonaCoffeeswhy does the Fed need Congress for QE?
Your intro footage is beautiful, nice design!
Geopolitical risk for increased crude prices which affects inflation which effects the expanding debt payments… what happened in 2007-2008 the speculators took control of rising crude prices as the fed was forced to raise interest rates… time to hedge your bond funds if oil keeps going up… watch the volume on crude futures contracts
The things you need will inflate, the things you own will deflate 😢
Depends what you own.
I could totally see Lance being in a ring lol
I can almost see him fighting using the exact same measurements he uses to ride market momentums lol
the math is the math... lol... like that.. ya'll keep up the good work (discussions). :)
So if Lance believes retail sales, growth, business capex plans are all going to decline, why's he want to buy the dip that's coming in the next weeks? Makes no sense.
Are there more or less paying into unemployment insurance? What happened to that metric as it was meant to be a more accurate measure of the direction things are going.
I always enjoy this weekly show. The most impactful takeaways have been on the behavioral front however. Ie: "savings is how you build wealth, investing is how one can preserve purchasing power." Without the ability to save, the rest of the content on this show doesn't mean much. IMO
Damn you Lance!
I do not understand the negativity. Please keep doing these interviews with Lance. I love how you are not afraid to have different perspectives on your show and even some pushback from your views. I commend both you and Lance for saying what you think you need to say without beating around the bush. That is what people need to hear more of these days without being afraid to get their feelings hurt. At the end of the day we should all be working together to make the best decisions we can for ourselves and our families.
Im hoping we see a turn around next week. I took gains before we got the inflation data. I thought I was buying the dip but it dipped even further 🥴
Every time I see a comment like this I can't help but think of the baby on the slide buying the dip 🤣 I hope things turn around for ya.
@@jamesmatthews6476 Baby? I've given my grown children free homes. Now, instead of selling and buying back at a cheaper price, I could be a lot worse than selling. Unless you have a crystal 🔮 ball, nobody knows where the bottom or top will be. I've been hearing sell for months and I watched my stocks and Bitcoin go higher and higher. I was a bit luckier with crypto. I sold Shiba at .000042. Last time I sold Bitcoin it was for 72,000. I've made some money buying and selling. I'm completely debt free including no mortgage and I have a nice emergency fund getting 5%.
You sound bitter!!! Like you either are in all cash, or you didn't sell and buy back in lower at all. So, which is it?
@@jamesmatthews6476 Baby? I've given all my grown children free homes. You sound bitter. Are you in all cash or did you lose all your gains?
@@jamesmatthews6476 Baby? I'm completely debt free including no mortgage. I live alone in a 3000sqft Cap cod. Turn around? I sold Shiba at .000042 and Bitcoin at 72000. I'm underwater on VTI but it's still $10 a share higher than it was in January and I took gains at a lot higher price .....a few times.
@@jamesmatthews6476 My comments are being deleted. I guess money managers don't want someone like you to know I've been able to give my children free homes by managing my own money and rental property.
Thanks for another great update, Adam & Lance! Totally off topic, but a family member is looking into putting some 401k money into an Annuity (fixed 3-year). Wondering if you have a video or opinion on annuities?
There's no point in a 3 year annuity. Might as well open a CD. You open an annuity for long-term with medium risk for a 10% fixed rate.
Many annuities offer less yield than holding treasuries... Treasuries are liquid, and you can cash them in a pinch, if you must. I think annuities could make sense in some very limited situations; such as establishing a trust fund that will be inherited by a mentally-challenged heir. But investors with an even modestly-active mindset, can find other low risk alternatives.
I love hearing about Lance's martial art background! I just take for granted that everyone is bigger and stronger than me and go for it. ;)
On the SB discussion, previously Lance argued "buy the dip". Now he is arguing that SB decline matters. I buy the second point, which I also think matters to the "buy the dip" mantra. Lance is IMHO, using double-think logic, contradicting himself.
I have watched long enough to know that Lance is right about a lot of things (so i think these sat shows are valuable), but I am starting to get a little concerned about the vibes of the interactions (as many others commentors it seems). For the long term good of the show I would like to suggest (1) Adam should always come ready with the bull arguments only and let Lance be the bear (he will do it naturally if Adam is a bull, so it is like jujitsu), and (2) maybe aim for 45 min. I personally like longer videos, but i think the longer sessions might be causing a bit of crankiness. An optional one might be setting the tone with shorter rants or something funny (Lance loves that kind of thing in his morning show, when he is usually happier). Keep up the good work!
I think the format works. Adam isn't afraid to challenge Lance.
Don't worry. Janet has your back
Adam is every long term buy & holder investor best friend, he is always doom and gloom, bring on these doomer speakers to his show to scare everyday investors into selling. Meanwhile we are patiently scooping up great quality companies at knock down price. Keep up the good work Adam.
Love the theory. But I always check to see who holds the bulk of a particular asset. In many cases over the past few weeks it's been the Institutional Investors and Insiders who are taking profits. I take it case by case.
@@HODIUSDUDE as the world getting wealthier, there are a wall of money chasing after limited asset, equity is just another limited asset, but productive asset, with underlying fundamentals, not relying on madness crowd psychology to drive speculation like meme stocks & BTC.
Adam at 1:18:42 "half the people I talk to disagree" that inflation is going down. The counter point is the amount of housing in the CPI, but that is a survey of home owners what they think not any hard cash transaction: "what do you think you could rent your house for right now?" is the data in there. Gold, Bitcoin, and poor Treasury Bond auctions are all indicating "things are looking grim out there, buckle up!"
May 3rd, 2024 at 830am is the next release date for unemployment. May 15th, 2024 is the next CPI release date at 830am. I heard all the tech jobs that were laid off 6 months ago were still getting severance pay up till April 2024 but now they will be put in the unemployment numbers raising the number above 3.8%. The April CPI came in hotter that expected extending higher rates for longer. The S&P is supposed to correct 5% to 10% before making another high. Makes me wonder if May 3rd will be the move upwards or will there be an additional bearish move? All these charts are saying a bull market for the next 10 years. Most of this "strong" economy is built on debt. Does debt play a role in the stock market? Or does the Fed just keep pumping more money in debt that can never be repaid? I'm just trying to learn if this is a house of cards or just the way the market works forever. Car insurance went up in my state and so did house insurance even with a clean record, people are buying groceries on their credit card and not making payments, rent is not going down, house prices are staying high, servicing your car is very expensive if you don't have the skills to do it yourself. Do I just play the market game and invest by the charts and ignore everything else? It seems to be the strategy from all the technical chart data. Oh, one more thing I heard, if Jerome Powell is forced to cut interest rates earlier than expected because of a 4.0% or 4.1% unemployment number it will actually make it worse for the market instead of better because it will cause more debt. Will that be the warning signal to risk off?
In contrast I thought, weakness in April and likely bearish trend June to June. But Lance says bull market for a few more years… he says but the dip