"Something's Going To Break" As Market Undergoes Phase Change | New Harbor Financial
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- Опубликовано: 22 апр 2024
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Stocks have sold off sharply since hitting all time highs just 3 weeks ago.
Bond prices are falling, too.
What's going on here?
Is this just a needed pullback to remove excessive froth before the market resumes rising to all-time highs?
Or is this a more significant reversal?
For a professional's perspective, we turn to John Llodra and Mike Preston, the lead partners at advisory firm New Harbor Financial.
Many of you already know that New Harbor is one of the financial advisory firms endorsed by Thoughtful Money.
To schedule a free consultation with them, fill out the short form at www.thoughtfulmoney.com
#inflation #goldprice #marketcorrection
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One of the great benefits of Thoughtful Money is that there are views presented for each type of investor temperament. For me I like John & Mike for their more cautious, humble, macro, fundamentals, risk management approach vs Lance who is more bold, certain, micro, technicals, speculative approach that I don't connect with so much. But many viewers have the opposite investing temperament to mine and as the name of the channel implies, there are "thoughtful" discussions for both temperaments so we get a chance to hear the different sides. Then the great guests add info/views within that paradigm. This is sure not what you get from cable finance entertainment channels! 👏👏👏
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I would just like to say on most financial shows I see a lot of comments bullying and blaming people who are poor or not financially prepared for the current economic times. This is very wrong. Remember you reap what you sow in life., What goes up comes down. Blessed are the merciful for they shall receive mercy. If you have been cruel and unmerciful to those struggling when you have plenty, who will show you mercy when the tables are turned?
This is why I watch your show Adam. You care about people and display that compassion. I believe that’s why your comment section is usually very good spirited by comparison to other shows. Thanks for all you do.
Ya, we don’t have a lot of money but are better off than a lot of people I know because we are at least not paycheck to paycheck. I hate when financial people are like “well, if they didn’t buy Starbucks once a week they wouldn’t be so broke”. How about feeding a family of 5 at home and never going out to eat costs $1,200 a month, health insurance is unaffordable ($1,200 a month), rent for the RV spot we live in is $800 a month. My first apartment was less than that 16 years ago. The cost of living has skyrocketed.
Amen. These times, in the financial advice world and the world generally, there is way too much anger, judgement and demonizing especially by those who have had such a nice free ride courtesy of the Fed's malign actions of suppressed interest rates the past two decades (especially since '08) but think it's all their own doing. Our current chaotic political environment is already showing the early perils of such attitudes/actions. But we are humans and have not evolved much at all from Mesopotamia or Ur so it's to be expected as part of the historic civilization wheel that turns and returns and turns again!
You reap what you vote for. This is all due to poor governance and that is going to get worse not better in the short to medium term. If you voted for politicians that are profligate spenders and central planners (irrespective of your lot in life), you only have yourself to blame.
I have nothing bad to say about people who haven't prepared, but I will say something to people who have. Remember that the government cannot take blood from a stone, and that are governments are more and more populous driven. The second point is that our governments are way heavenly saddled with debt. If the situation ever shows up where they can't take out more debt, they will searched the world over for the money needed ... That money will not come from the unprepared, and so the people that have savings should appreciate that they will be the ones ping for that past debt accumulation.
@@solskengroupllp2758 yep, I’ve lost a couple family members too early. My brother had childhood cancer and made it. He’s 36 now.
Yes Adam - DEFINITELY want update on hedging and thank you and your guests ahead of time.
This October/November is going to be nuts!
Great idea to have a full length interview with NH. Please do this more. Thanks!
i'd love a discussion on hedging
If you don’t have a 7 figure portfolio you’re wasting your time hedging. Just buy and hold
Yes, please tell us about hedging.
I would love to see a presentation by Mike and John on their hedging techniques!
Yes, I am interested in learning about hedges.
Da money makerz hedge their loans if da consumer does not pay den da fedz promise ta cancel or ignore the #'z, right grant?
Yes, interested to know about hedging and ESPECIALLY the price of hedging to a RETAIL investor.
We had a younger associate at work resign several weeks ago because he has “ A passion for trading” Schwab has prominent ads on its website showing retirees and advocating “Trading” with the word “Investing “ being used secondarily. It feels like March of 2000.
The S&P 500 dividend rate is 1.28%. The S&P 500 market cap is twice the size of M2, which has only occurred one other time in the last 40 years and that was March of 2000. The normal ratio is closer to 1:1 to the M2 money supply. You can get 5% on your money without risk. Something has to give.
Soooo, sell everything and take the 5% until....?
Yes, interested in hearing about the process of hedging.
Get back to me when its really falling
3 days ago you were just talking about it's all over. You seem mentally weak
Inflation is never going down these guys are very dumb
@@teaadvice4996good luck with that advice. And “these guys” are pretty frickin smart, I’ve been watching them for years.
The python is constipated and that pig is never coming out. The only thing coming out of that python will be more QE.
Yep, pull back is already over and melt up it goes now. Not because it's more valuable but currency erosion.
Yes, walk us through an updated deck of hedge options!
Yes please on option securing portfolio safety
Excellent discussion!
Hi Adam, could you please mention below the video which date it was recorded on - it'd really help keep things in context in a daily changing market. Thx!
I definitely would be interested in this sort of webinar on hedging and hedging strategies. I definitely need to learn more about options and how to use them.
Great analysis and commentary!
Best financial education and the highest level of integrity anywhere. Thanks so much for helping us to understand a confounding part of life!
super thoughtful discussion about money. thank you for your thoughts thoughtful money. money can be very thought provoking and you are thoughtful about money.
There is definitely a divide opening up on opposite sides of the pond. While the US economy appears strong the fed is in no hurry to cut rates, in the UK and Europe governments are desperate to cut rates to stimulate their economies. The BOE has virtually “baked in” 100 basis points drop in the second half of this year and most strategists are still working to that. So there’s still a lot to be written in 2024.
Adam, I would love to learn more about calls, puts and hedges from New Harbor. Always great to hear Mike Preston’s view on precious metals and miners. I remember he said back in the fall that gold would likely go to 2,500 and we’re moving closer to that mark now.
Well said Mike!!!
I have a query pls.
Prospects of fed rate cut has been the top discussed item for over two years now. If situation is not conducive to a direct cut, as seems to be the scenario at present, then can the Fed at least not start tapering QT? Would that not qualify as a policy pivot move, one with perhaps higher potency than the "verbal pivot", and with lower risk of flaring up inflation vs a direct int rate cut. Or is that ruled out - if so, why?
Right question would be how come market goes up so evenly over moving averages in Q1? Seemingly automated process of algos buying from each other.
I would love Lance Roberts to comment what he thinks the impact on price levels would be along with eg. the buybacks.
Yes. A podcast on hedging please
Love any webinar you recommend Adam. In Adam we trust. Thank you for looking out for the little guys.
Thank you, brilliant discussion by two of the best in the business!!
Thank you gentlemen!!
I clicked on the link for the San Jaun Capo and it says page not found. Where else can I sign up?
Excellent
Ted Oakley sometime gives examples of where they are investing which gives insight on the whole etf v individual stock allocation . Mike green and his discussion on etf flows is also something not many talk about as well and doesn’t really matter what stocks are in them or is just momentum flows and most ignore the underlying basket ?
Hi Adam! I would absolutely be interested in a webinar about options hedging, but perhaps a more advanced one that could help one actually implement them in thier portfolio; one that would include the strategies, instruments used, how to calculate the amount of a hedge to use, ect. Of course this would require the listener to have a more in depth understaning of how derivatives work, but if there are enough of us out there, I think it would be very much appreciated. Thank you for all you do!
Yes, would like to see the update on hedging.
Yes please on hedging methods
Great insights. I would appreciate a session focused on hedging options with examples bringing this back here .
Please have a webinar on hedging, thanks!
I’ll sign up and attend
Have listened to these two gentlemen.Yes there are the negative issues though I have heard of the same ,nothing really new .Want to hear something that I have not heard before I react to sell positions substantially
Michael Howell ,your guest ,spoke of the temporal setback in liquidity .Makes sense both bond and equity price drop .
He mentioned the tax payment was dated on April 15th.
80% of your guest speakers have been bearish on the equity and the debts markets .
The bonds are flat and the equity still momentum on upside .
Yes please! A webinar on hedging
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is following this very informative content cheers Frank 😊
Yes
hedging overview will be great!!!
Yes, I want to see how play of options and stocks complement each other.
I love the NH guys. They actually make more sense to me than most of your guests.
please so the options explanation video. It would be very helpful
Yes Adam please do a video on hedging
yes, we'd like to see an UPDATED BASICS OF HEDGING video
options are always interesting. always something to learn. Markets dump 5% approx 3 times a year
Hope you can bring your summit to Long Island NY in the not-too-distant future!
What's the WTI in the chart at 40 mins?
Same here .More information on hedging be fantastic:)
San Juan Capistrano California is in Orange County between LA and San Diego
Please do the video explaining hedging.
I'd love a video on hedging. Not just the basics "buy puts" but which puts? Far out of the money? Long expiration, short expiration? Etc
It's just like Tyson Holyfield, you bet on Tyson but "hedge" your bet by betting on Holyfield, just gotta find 2 trusty booky'z where da oddz work out so yah b Makin a profit either way, it's simple, try it
Yah known what day seyz: man's gotta serve 2 masterz
Always good to
Yah know what day sayz: doity diapez means dat day got somtin ta shit
Yes, I would love to see more updated ways to protect my investments
29:22
For that San Juan Capistrano event you need to fly into John Wayne Airport get on the 405 freeway to the 5 freeway south get off at Ortega Highway I don't know the address you guys have not mentioned it but that's how you get into San Juan Capistrano
Adam, please have the guys on again to talk about hedging. I need a better understanding of it. Thanks, Jon
Yes please on hedging......
YAAAA BOI!!!.
I would like to see an update on hedging a portfolio
Yes please present an update on hedging techniques. My understanding is that there’s a cost to hedging if/when the market continues to move higher. Sounds like that point isn’t being made. Maybe I don’t understand.
if you own SPY, you would buy PUT options on SPY. You would assign a date beyond where you think the market would stop falling or where you could exit the stock and still make money on your PUTs. It is insurance for the asset, like term life insurance, it just expires and you would not use it if SPY continues to go up. You don't really lose, because it served its purpose. There are other ways to hedge, by buying stocks that are in a different sector or category than SPY. Good luck.
If ya want kidz then let'z be honest, dey might not toin outright if yah wife is havin' em, so yah gotta hedge
10:25 the "magnet" is the plunge protection team. Why aren't financial guys talking about this?
There are always those who have much less so I have learned to be so very thankful . I've learned to be thankful for dirty dishes. It's a sign that you have something to eat.
It dependz on da doit
2024 was set to be turbulent, with the market sentiment driven by emotions pushing highs and subsequent dips. Hold on, but there are no fundamental worries to see.
I would be interested in listening about hedging techniques.
How these people get clients is beyond me.
I wonder if the “road show” they are doing is because their clients are unhappy with their overly conservative portfolio allocation, and they are pulling funds out.
what about a crash of the value of the USD purchasing power? the nominal value of the stocks would continue to go up but in real terms they would go down
Explain how a fundamental collapse of the market will lead to stocks going up without simply repeating what you heard. I'll be waiting
@@prolific1518 looking at history. If the money collapses faster than the stock market, then the stock market goes up in nominal terms. It happened in all countries of Latin America. It just happened in Turkey. Examples are legion
I would like to see the hedging webinar.
A bank failed in Pennsylvania on friday the week this dropped.
Would love a weekly show with new harbor, instead of only reaction videos
I’d like to hear about hedging
We would like to see
How to do hedging
Hey Adam, when are you going to have David Hunter on again? The last time he was interviewed by you, (over a year ago), NHF poo pooed his forecast of new highs. Now they're again calling a top. Get David back on to explain why we're going much higher before the bust.
David Hunter has been spot on so far. He was one of the earliest to present a forecast that many couldn't see.
Last year Adam interviewed Tom Lee and he was also not taken seriously. I remember Tom saying 20% up 2023 was the base case. The S&P 500 ended 26% higher for 2023. I agree Adam should get more bullish folks that understand what really moves the street. The trickeries of the Fed and the government are exactly why common sense is useless in positioning oneself in this market.
David Hunter tweeted that the S&P would hit 6800 by the end of 2022. He’s just a pumper with “trust me bro” energy. He definitely hasn’t been spot on.
@@cats_ARE_better_than_you bulls only can see "stock goes up" so they ignore when their pumpers are clearly wrong
@@cats_ARE_better_than_you So do you think we'll get to 6800 this year?
Hedging webinar would be awesome
Very interested in hedging
Yes, interested in hedging education.
I appreciate their conviction and willingness to be honest with their beliefs.
The dollarization will have a BIG say in what happens
The pullback will occur when the US can't service its debt. We won't have to wait much longer.
Hit us with the hedge’s tutorial
When you get to Berlin Germany, please let me know as I will buy a ticket
Stocks only go up.
Yeah I know what you mean, you're real smart kid, I likez dis guy
Adam ,your site still sounds like doom and gloom ones .I appreciate some guests you bring .
Please bring more balanced speakers with their own skins deep in the game .
The two most successful traders ,Stan Druckenmiller and David Tepper .
They are still so long in equities
All the people who benefited from ZIRP are now benefitting from high interest rates.
Yeh, dat wuz great when Trump was givin out loanz at -4% to da private equity corps and oil went to $0/barrel.
Yes please more hedging info
Hedging video--Yes!
I see a big slope downward...Fasten your safety belts!!!
Gold is a safe bet id think
Magnificent 7 story is an old excuse .Financials ,Industrials (GE) ,Elli Lilly ,etc have been spectacular performers
Great episode, very chill. Thanks for not crapping on us poors out here with sub $100k net worth. 😂
All time highs by Friday.
It's not LA, It's OC
Different county
"The boom is worth the bust" is the vary definition of "Cantillon Effect" and we are stuck with a bunch of "Cantillionaires" as defined by Max Keiser-"larcenous scoundrels". ("Oh behave"-Austin Powers (for president!!!!!))
5% is not unusual. Much ado about nothing.
35:25 we have had a banking crisis. Multiple government agencies stepped in to save the day and create more inflation by giving banks money to gamble in the stock market.