The Market Is At A "Critical Juncture": Which Way Will It Go? | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart
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- Опубликовано: 26 апр 2024
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Is the market downdraft that sent stocks 5% lower from their recent all-time highs over?
It's looking like it could be. But the market is at a "critical juncture" observes portfolio manager Lance Roberts.
The S&P is getting quite close to its 50 and 20 Daily Moving Averages. If it rises above them, then we're likely back off to the races and new all-time highs could be in the future.
But if it fails to do so, then a fall back to the 100 Daily Moving Average is more likely in store.
Lance and I walk through the charts, as well discuss the latest slowdown in GDP growth, the latest hot inflation surprise data, as well as what's happening with bond yields.
This episode is very important to watch if you're 40 years or younger and/or just starting out on your wealth-building journey. Lance shares his simple formula for how to get out of financial survival mode and amass sufficient capital to take control of your financial destiny.
For that, plus everything that mattered to the markets, watch this week's Market Recap.
#investing #inflation #interestrates
_____________________________________________
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We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor in good standing with the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.
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Peter Schiff vs Lance would be awesome to watch and very entertaining.
I like Lance. I get over pessimistic and he brings me back to center.
Same! He's very very smart on markets. He's called basically ever move the last year.
Same here
We need Roberts and Pento on the program together to talk about the future.
Yes!!!
Add Luke Gromen too.
Did Lance just say that the only way we'd get inflation was from another lockdown (which is WHO article 19)because the velocity of money in the inflation equation has changed & we could be looking at another SEP 2019 REP0 crisis and negative rates wherein the bondholder has to pay to hold the bond?? But that would mean another 1930 style collapse in credit markets…......ohhhhhh. I see now. So that's the "coincidence".
So given Lance’s 30 portfolios, he can never be wrong about the markets.
Yep he was a huge TLT bull for so long and now hes trying to act like it never happened and hoping people forget so he wont have to admit if he was wrong.
@@asddfhdtcvx He was just early on TLT. TLT will run as yields come down and bonds re-invert, lows for TLT may be in.
my market top indicator will be when Lance replaces that old chair 🤣
Hahaha it’s why the millionaire next door looks so blue collar right? 😅. I bet Lance has some Artwork hidden away and hot rods in the garage somewhere. And some gold for sure.
Another “it may go up or it may go down” Saturday.
Yes, be prepared, that is!
I only click on these to make annoying comments. I definitely don't listen to Lance :D :D :D
Thank you. I didn't bother to watch. It's always the same conclusion in his videos: We don't know what's gonna happen.
The sky is falling! The sky fell! The sky is going up!
one of the best weekly shows around. thank you
We adjust to a certain point. I like what Gerald Celente said: "When people have nothing left to lose, they lose it". That is right around the corner
Love your honesty about frugality, Adam! Thank you! 🥰
2 whole different worlds Pinto and Lance wow
Pento has the best overview. Lance is quite arrogant.
Lance is right though if you listen to the doomsters all the time, you miss the melt up @@davewood8985
@@davewood8985 Lance has 150 slides on US economy but seems clueless on global economy... China has been the largest contributor to global economic growth, and according to Bloomberg expected to outpace G7 in next 5 years as well. Exports to USA is 15% of China's total exports. Apparently Lance bases his global analysis on stock markets, which doesn't equal economy... just the current valuations which can change in instant.
First thing I catch up on after getting back from holiday is Lance and Adam
Sanity has returned to my life, thank you both
Favorite time of the week always adam brother!
Lance's program for younger people to escape debt and start building wealth is wonderful advice. Live below your means!
Yes. I myself is living proof of that. Pretty much verything he talked about are things I have done, and they work. Jan.
Adam is exceedingly humble, and seems like such a kind person. It's such a privilege to listen to him.
I appreciate the breath of different thoughts you bring on this channel. I don't want to be told I want to be given information.
I will make my own decisions.
That is how is should be
Have you read the book beneath sheep’s clothing by Julie behling it brings clarity
Thank you Adam and Lance
Thanks from Brazil to Adam and Lance.
The tax write-off conventions in town (you said 6) explains why your expensive steak place was packed while normal places empty. When we get per diem for travel, we spend it one the better places.
Loved this episode. Great to hear those who are grounded.
Lance's parting comment was spot on. Control of your capital matters more than everything else. I couldn't agree more
Great recap each week
Pay yourself is a great mantra, another great job guys!
Thank you both for all the knowledge sharing. It would be great if you could make a webcast on Simplevisor
Drink every time Lance says “ZEE-ROW” or “JUE-LIE” or “function of”
I enjoy Adam's interview technique ... But, let's go to a "Drink every time he says 'Uhm'".
I love the Texas flavor in the explanations. Wishing I could live in Texas!
@@quietStorm247 I was stationed in Texas for a few years. I loved the Texan people since they were so ironically similar to NY'ers ... grit. I just couldn't stand the heat and humidity as a NY'er.
Or "yeah no" 😅
"joo-lie"? 😮
Love these guys. Great way to start the weekend
You guys have taught me a lot over time. Thank you
I appreciate Lance's take on things and I'm no economist but it seems to me that the steady loss of value of the Dollar due to excessive Government borrowing & spending would continue to contribute to higher inflation.
I would agree, but I think the main issue is for the Fed to maintain stability. It probably doesn't matter what the inflation is as long as it is not volatile, that way people can plan and eliminate uncertainty. So, basically the dollar could probably continue to decline as long as it does so slowly and predictably. Problem is the government spending has been erratic, and the Fed threatens roller coaster rides even if they mostly do nothing.
Yes but his comparison with the 70s makes a very good point. Though in the 70s the welfare programs were smaller.
I really do enjoy Lance
Good honest discussion. Thanks!
Thank you very much...
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is following this informative content cheers Frank 😊
Thank you both! This 11am talk has become part of my Saturday routine.
I am signing up for the free consultation now (and no worries, I'm absolutely serious) but what do I have to do to get Lance Roberts himself speak with me instead of one of his guys? I love this man's mindset and his straightforward take-no-prisoner attitude :)
Agreed. Would love to have Lance manage my money, I have no idea where to start to find a good financial advisor in the UK.
Great show!
Hi, are you using log or normal scale when tracking 20days Simple moving average?
Great interview. Appreciate Lance’s balanced, realistic views and justified bullish long term outlook in a world of so many headline creating perma-bears.
Don’t be too frugal. Be tactical and not wasteful, but travel! Buy some nice things. You never know what the future holds. You won’t do many of these things in your 70’s plus potentially. Nice for your heirs, but I don’t think that should be the goal.
I love Lance! He makes me slow down and think.
Today; however, my portfolio is far ahead of whatever it is that he is rambling on about.
While still good general advice, i wonder if the wealth roadmap lance outlined applies today as it might have in the boomer journey, with asset prices, inflation, rates, and the various other challenges the young find themselves having to navigate.
The bulk of the boomer wealth came as a direct result of the Fed expansion of credit with artificially low rates. This created a boom in real estate. Looking at 1985 to now, the boom was significantly higher than real wages. This scenario would have to compound higher from here out another 30-40yrs! Not gonna happen! The younger (pre-GenX) are barely treading water and many are sinking and gave up. They simply do not have the disposable income needed to invest, and most likely will see negative real returns in the future.
Thank you Lance for the detailed process for the 20-30 something (wealth building)
Adam, we’d love to see a debate between Roberts and Pento.
Really solid advice for young adults. I have forwarded the discussion to some young adults in my life. Thank you
Me thinketh again Lance., steadying the ship and Adam........navigating the course@@!😁😉
Supply and demand don’t cause inflation unless you are referring to the supply of currency.
Supply and demand determine prices in a free market. If prices are going up in a free market, it is due to either supply of a product decreasing or demand for a product increasing. Therefore, supply and demand are at the root of inflation. Whether we have a free market is a topic worth debating.
@@wpelfetaincluding currency
Well, it does if there is an imbalance, like supply chain problems. But I get the point that in a normally functioning system the supply meets the demand at appropriate levels that are sustainable.
Well when the money printing was being absorbed by the stock market and just sitting as numbers on computers it was making inequality worse, and driving house prices massively up, but it wasn't seeping into consumer goods or food I guess because supply was kept up. I think Lance has a point when he says that rate cuts indicate a recession and therefore less spending power, and prices will adjust unless the helicopter money begins again.
@@wpelfeta That is not exactly true - changes in supply and demand applies to commodities, goods, and services markets where "relative" prices change (gold goes up, interest rates go down; energy up, cruise vacations down). This is not inflation. Inflation is when the general price level rises, but that's just another way of saying the currency is depreciating, so ALL prices are affected, including wages. The only way the currency can be depreciated is if the supply of currency exceeds the supply of commodities, goods, and services denominated in that currency. Inflation is not really about prices, it's about currency values. Relative to what is where the vernacular diverges. The Austrians explained this, as did Friedman, but Lyn Alden offers some pretty good insights for non-economists.
Good episode…. Thank you!
Great discussion chaps. Maybe you could do a live Q&A sometime soon? I have questions about the strength of the dollar, and what that means.
Adam, I would like to learn more about the Simplevisor platform. Also, you sure got your money’s worth out of your Brooks Brothers blazer.
When you work on something that only has the capacity to make you 5 dollars, it does not matter how much harder you work - the most you will make is 5 dollars.❤
People dont understand that the prices of things are never going back down. This inflation is deeper than we think. Those buying groceries are well aware that the real inflation is much over 10%. The increments dont match our income, yet certain investors still earn over $365,000 in stocks and assets. Wish I could accomplish that.
Very possible! especially at this moment. Profits can be made in many different ways, but such intricate transactions should only be handled by seasoned market professionals.
I actually appreciate Lance’s bullish disposition
They make changes to how CPI is calculated all the time. They've made like 5 changes since 2023. What keeps being left out is the inflation don't actually change cause how CPI is measured. So, at what point do we factor in reality, and not just the advantages the government gets out of keeping the CPI metric low.
Yes it's ridiculous when the government reports good being up 4% or housing being up 2% when we all see prices soaring.
This. ^^
How inflation is measured also effects GDP figures... I suspect last year's surprisingly high GDP growth in US was mainly inflation that wasn't correctly accounted for.
I disagree with some of Lance's assertions. Fiscal and monetary decisions most certainly do create inflation because they cause downstream effects on supply and demand. For example, as TGA draws down and raises liquidity, asset prices rise. When portfolios rise, profit taking always ensues, and with that money other assets get purchased, often real assets such as real estate, for example, a house build in the Hamptons, or Aspen, or anytown coastal USA. These 2nd, 3rd homes drain the supply of goods and services, and there you get local inflation, therevy exacerbating affordability crises for anyone besides this capital class.
Yes I think bigger assets rise, but we didn't really see food or consumer goods rising over the past 15 years of QE.
This isn't hard.
(A) When they print money and give it to the bankers and CEOs, prices for stocks, bonds, art, mansions and yachts go up... which aren't in the CPI.
(B) When they print money and give it to the masses, prices for houses, food, cars, restaurants, clothes, etc. go up... which ARE in the CPI.
Both are inflation (money printing) but the machine only likes to measure consumer prices so that they can keep giving money to their friends and keep the dumb rabble in line.
Now that we're reflating back to higher rates, they've created "Super-core" inflation which takes out essentials and only measures discretionary. Why? Because as people are forced to spend more and more on essentials, they will have less and less to spend on discretionary... so the government is intentionally only measuring the things they know will fall and intentionally cutting out the things they know will rise.
@@FreeSpeech4All this helps, thx
I appreciate this conversation, a logical breakdown of where the economy is and where it potentially will go. #ThatInvestmentLife
Cool intro
This admin will never let it drop!
I was out on a date in NYC last night....just a regular bar -- nothing fancy.. A craft IPA on draft... $14. Unreal.
That's crazy!
How was the date?
@@user-jl8yy5ir7s she was cute but she didn’t seem very interested 👎
I am not sure that I agree on the repaying the student debt early comment. I have just finished paying my student loan this month. At least in my situation, it was very fixed payment, so the interest has not increased - currency has devalued so much from the time when I have taken that loan, that I feel it was practically "free". It might be different in US, but I think that my decision to pay it out according to the plan was correct.
Another thing, would love to hear from Andy Constan again! Especially as it relates to the QRA
Much appreciation for this topics. I am not below 45 years old. Nonetheless, I wished that earlier in my life I heard similar messages.
Great advice from Lance re paying of dept. However, too many young people don't start saving for retirement until they've paid off their debt, including student debt. They need to start immediately at some level.
It would be great if Lance could do that summary of investing for the younger generation and then say, ok don’t leave continue listening for the rest of the hour to learn about markets. If the young generation heats that up front lecture and then can listen for the rest of the show they will be more interested and engaged.
That empty restaurant mentioned was empty because inflation disproportionally adds taxes to everything. And what that means is it taxes the lowest income groups the most and the highest ones the least.
37:56 A lot of younger single people are figuring this out; that if you can reduce or eliminate shelter and transportation costs, you then can save for retirement without working 100hr weeks for 50yrs. This is the reason for nomadic lifestyles. Which is actually sad that the Fed has created such bifurcation that people resort to living in vans.
Did Adam say there was a video of him with Robert Chalini? If so anyone have a link to it? Thanks in advance if so.
ruclips.net/video/KNMw7AwylKo/видео.htmlsi=ww-KcNsz5W6YsonG
The supply/demand argument quickly losing steam. I don’t know anyone who is buying more of anything. They’re just paying more.
Very very very good advice. Wish I had recieved it when I was 25. 1.07.26 to 1.19 appx- priceless words.
Thank you Lance for actually being thoughtful and helping people actually have a chance with winning financially. Unfortunately most guests Adam brings on this channel are fear mongers that honestly just get clicks but help no one in the long run.
Lance: Sorry, but one of the reasons that pub was about to close down is that Hamburgers were $15 instead of $6 and beers were $5 instead of $2. Average people are tired of getting bent over the table on high restaurant prices and have decided to say "enough". In n Out is totally successful without gouging people on prices. Others make you play the app game in order to get a decent price. ENOUGH!
The real adjustment govt needs to make is to stop paying COLA's on Federal pensions for all workers including military. This is a huge amount of money and was never promised, unlike the pension itself. This is over and above SS for them as well. A retired federal, state, large municipal worker or military is the single best job in America. ENOUGH!
What do you think about the fact that adjusted for inflation the market went almost nowhere from 1965 to 2008? That's 43 years.
I left the US for USVI, a US territory. Inflation doesn't go up as much here. We are stuck in the 1990s. If you can work remote, bail on the US mainland. Territories are the best. US Protection but cheaper rates. Even on an island. Another great talk. Love you and Lance! At the 1:00:14 mark Lance says S.H.I.T. Love it!
I’m just impressed the jacket still fits
Just a matter of time the 90% come for the peeps
on the tennis and golf course.
I've heard a lot of people say the S&P bounced off the 100 day MA. That isn't true. It was a good 50 points away from touching it. That's kinda close but not super close. Close enough? Maybe. Maybe market was front running it. /shrug
Let's see if it falls further after re-testing the 50 DMA from below.
Lance what do you make of the return of the bear steepener and the fact that the FED is caught off guard given that most of the inflation is supply driven.
About FED bank reserves, isn't that opposite of FED balance sheet? It should be excess bank reserves hold at the FED, so in essence extracted from the banking system.
A lot of people is referring to the bank reserves level as liquidity, while it's the opposite?
I think you are right, but I question if the Fed is even in control. Those banks probably wouldn't follow the bank reserve requirements and nothing anyone can do about it.
This is no longer a buy the dip and hold market...
I’m going to have my 23 year old watch this. We’ve tried to instill these concepts, but we’re just the parents 😅. Maybe hearing it from experts will help.
Adam I think it's called something like the cantillion effect where people closest to the money printing have the main benefit and it's one of the great sins of a fiat currency system you really need to have Tom Woods on
Maybe not. in a scenario of high interest rates, high dollar value, relatively high inflation and low retail sale how long the stocks can be at present high values? Not much more.
Jesus I’m not watching 2 hours for 10 mins of information these keep getting longer and longer
Supply and demand obviously affects price but Lance is in denial that uncontrolled government spending and borrowing contributes to inflation. They pump dollars into the system increasing the supply of dollars which then compete to buy products, assets etc.
Ah, but I think it matters where the money goes and where it comes from. Just government spending isn't inflationary, cause they issue debt and if private individuals buy the debt, then it's just the same amount of money changing hands. Now, if the Federal Reserve prints the money and buys the debt, then it's inflationary, cause it's new money in the system. Also, if government is just giving the money to average people to spend then that's going to increase prices on average goods.
@@RichardTN "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” Monetary economist Milton Friedman
Frugal , Adam , your an amateur 🙂So ,a strange thing happened at an art museum I went to while on holiday in Germany recently. When I got there , there was a queue , so like a good German , I stood in the queue, but half way along , I saw that meals were been handed out ...I asked the guy near me "was kosted das mael ? He said " nein , keine geld " . So not wanting to bail , I went through the process and enjoyed a tasty lunch with the homeless people ...Kinda welfare by accident ...Then I went into the museum , paid my 16 Euro entrance and viewed the exhibition😋
Love this show. I watch every episode. Lance's advice to younger folk is great, but the debt pardon he described id definitely not D
...Dave Ramsey's plan.
*paydown...wow, I'm struggling with this comment!
I appreciate Lance for bringing some realism to BearTube.
Lance is mad about missing out on the recent meltup and he's overcomensating with a rosy outlook.
Please put those fancy Lance's adjectives in the description of the video.
Crepuscular: dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/crepuscular
@@adam.taggart Thanks! I found the word after trying a couple of times.
The discussion of inflation could be a lot less confusing. Lance doesn't say anything wrong, but adds to the confusion by muddling the definition and causes of inflation. The common vernacular meaning of inflation is inaccurate because it focuses on prices. But inflation measured by prices can be widely inaccurate because it depends on WHICH prices among infinite commodities, goods, and services. Because prices are measured by money, inflation has to be defined as it is by economic theory as the depreciation of the purchasing power of the currency. This means the money supply exceeds the supply of goods, services, and commodities denominated in that currency. So inflation is defined as an increase (i.e., rate of change) in the GENERAL price level as measured by a basket of commodities, goods, and services, which can also be stated as the depreciation of the purchasing power of the currency. The CPI is not measuring true inflation - it's measuring a sample of "consumer prices" indexed over time. True inflation arises from excessive money and credit creation, nothing else. Demand pull and cost push are merely how the mechanisms of inflation operate at any point in the cycle.
For example, when the price of housing and energy goes up, but the prices of food and restaurants goes down, those are relative prices changes that reflect supply and demand for those goods and services. That is NOT inflation. But when we experienced an explosion in housing, education, and healthcare costs of 50-200% over 10 years while CPI was below 2%, we were experiencing a very high level of inflation even though the monetary authorities and COLA contracts could claim no inflation. This all becomes part of the money illusion that the governing authorities practice to manage their manipulations of the economy.
This brings us to the stagflation thesis. Stagflation is likely, not because of the data trends in prices, but because I would argue it is the Fed's favored strategy to manage its quandary of being between a rock and a hard place (deflation vs. inflation). The public deficit and financing needs as well as small business and corp refinancing needs means lower rates and creeping inflation are necessary. The idea is to keep nominal prices of interest rates and asset prices stable while real rates trend low to negative. This allows the debt tsunami to slowly dissipate without a crash in asset prices. This is stagflation. The Fed's strategy has only been partly successful because liquidity has been too loose, allowing asset prices to continue to rise. A housing bubble and a stock market bubble will make the Fed's job that much more difficult. Be sure that when headline "inflation" (CPI, PCE) becomes a political issue, these will be redefined lower to serve the money illusion strategy. This is all about the incentive structures facing the Fed, UST and public finance.
love your channel but don’t have 2 hours to watch and you don’t have any chapters so…
I can’t take Lance serious anymore.
0DTE, frens. Lance playing that bigley?
How many of "The 10%" play 0dte? ~Nil.
(*Other than Kenny G + Enron Musk)
The MAJORITY of 0dte players are upper mids, and crypto kids. COMPLETELY different demographics than the upper 10% Lance utterly dismissed as drivers of inflation.
BOTH of which, will drive inflation up if the market goes up.
Which is NOTHING to say, of the foreign and domestic actors (*see above) which have each other on speed dial, and are CLEARLY TRYING to drive inflation (aka unrest) in the West.
I know fintwits don't like to acknowledge geo/politics, but you can't DEAL with a problem if you don't recognize IT'S A PROBELM. 🐘 At least, for the vast vast vast majority.
Thx Adam for giving pushback. 🙏
WOW! 🎉 And to 180° ...
Lance's lightning round of how to begin... gold Jerry! 🥇 🙃
(Which is also to say, bonkers relevant to match: message-market-audiences).
To basically allocate ~most of which Lance has said over the years here to max 20% (30% generously) of your port
Not said, but options, even less unless very considered hedges
Hell no its not over we have to go down at least 10percent in small caps. Some small caps has to fail
But is a 401k really that useful? I read the paper of Robert Hiltonsmith (
The Retirement Savings Drain: Hidden & Excessive Costs of 401(k)s) and according to that it would be better to just make my savings plan on the S&P500 (according to the example from Lance)
I hope Lance gets a chance to go back to the Steakhouse one year from now. I bet it looks like the bar across the street. Probably won’t be safe to cross the street.
I am digging the weekly vocabulary words😂
Just remember Lance has been wrong on inflation and his bond purchases for quite some time. He, like many, are underestimating and categorizing inflation metrics too narrowly. One sector can pop down but back up again very quickly. The PCE Index has nearly the same trajectory or trend angle as the big run up, since November. Last month was 1.7% in that index and this is a high RoC, so I dont know why Lance is talking about RoC when it has began again
Thoughts on the rapid advance of the MMRI?
The first financial rule for young people is to SAVE. To resist the siren song of conspicuous consumption and buy only what you need. Most fun is actually free. Forget the convenience services like Door Dash and Starbucks. Credit is like a drug. Study economics.
You really need to work on your wording to get the message across. Telling people to eat rice and beans until the age of 45, and plan your retirement after 45, is really unappealing.
You don't like his "Let them eat cake" financial advice mantra? 😂
Lance is such a perma bull. Every single time.
he the only who been right since the beginning of 2023. everyone else wouldve had you sidelined
Money managers have to accumulate Assets Under Management. No? 🙂
The stock market has been in a bull market almost all of his career.
@@greghabibi9874 Not sure exactly what this means, since all money managers are forced to keep you in the market, otherwise their clients would just go elsewhere. If you are expecting a stock portfolio, you have to buy stocks. You can rebalance and rotate, increase some cash on the margin and have some hedges but, at the end of the day, all stock money managers have to be bullish on stocks by definition.
Talking heads are usually bears, it's what folks like to watch. Traders have been making heaps of money in this bull market
An hour and fourty two minutes to say "economic malaise for the 90%".
Comcast loss is just under 15%, not 5% as you say Lance. If I’m wrong, let me know please.
Milton berg and Avi Gilburt are the best market technicians and they both said a top was in...
Thank you for the hint. Watched M.B. on Blockworks.