Asset Price Volatility Is Suddenly Higher Than Markets Are Prepared For | Kevin Muir
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- Опубликовано: 9 июн 2024
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On the famous fear/greed index, after spending most of the past year and half in "greed", we've suddenly switched to "fear" over a very short time frame.
The S&P has broken below both its 20 and 50 Daily Moving Averages.
Inflation printed hotter than expected, making Wall Street start to doubt the Federal Reserve's ability to deliver expected rate cuts.
And geopolitical tensions have puckered tighter following the escalation of hostilities between Iran and Israel.
Is the exuberant sentiment that drove the past year's bull market now gone?
Or it is just taking a breather before continuing to climb what has suddenly become a much steeper Wall Of Worry?
For answers, we're fortunate to speak today with market veteran Kevin Muir, founder and editor of The Macro Tourist, the highly-acclaimed newsletter that currently ranks as the #12th largest financial Substack in the world.
Follow Kevin at themacrotourist.com/
#marketcorrection #volatility #investing
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Can you please consider adding bookmarks to segments in your videos? Most other finance/macro related channels do it and makes it very helpful to understand the topics covered in each interview. I know they take work to do, but perhaps worth it for your subscribers' benefit?
Understandably. I think Adam wants you to watch all of the video
Thank so much for the advice do you recommend any professional ?
Please how do I reach out to her? I’m in need of her assistance.
"Hey everyone! 👋 Just starting my investment journey in crypto and stocks. 🚀 Learning the ropes and excited about the possibilities. Any tips or or info on how I’ll reach out to Anna Dorris Arthur,Let's grow together! 🌱
Honestly, I’m surprised that this mrs Anna D Arthur ,is mentioned here, came across a testimony about her from one of the beneficiaries on wallstreet, El Salvador made Bitcoin their national currency.
Kevin’s microphone/headset is really good. It’s one of the best I’ve seen and heard.
Yes good sounds makes a huge difference. I often switch off podcasts where the sound is poor, or the interviewer or guest "yaps" (i.e talks roo much over the the other).
Yes have Kevin back. Great interview Adam.
Gosh, I often say this with Adam's videos, but this time even more so...."Fantastic Interview Adam!"
So glad you enjoyed it!
Excellent explanation of the gamma trade dynamics. Agree with Kevin on "time to short equities and long volatility". Disagree with him on economy being strong. I think China is (quietly) imploding and significantly exporting excess capacity and thus price deflation, accelerating global recession (unemployment pickup will be domestic trigger in the U.S.). Love Kevin! Please have him back soon!
Translation-long term puts. Ty
To read Kevin's recent analysis on China and the opportunity he sees in its equities, sign up for our Newsletter and upgrade to premium. Kevin's analysis is this week's MacroPass report. To sign up for our newsletter, just go to thoughtfulmoney.com/ and click "Newsletter" in the menu at top
Fantastic interview !
Ha…gamma explanation went right over my head
Same here. But I do know that when I have owned shares, they have been artificially pushed lower by shorting (e.g Fever Tree, Saga, etc). It's annoying for the retail investor!
Simple thing to remember, if market is in a Positive Gamma environment, there is more market stability and typically grind higher. If market is in a Negative Gamma environment (like we are today), the market will have more volatility and have big swings.
You can likely Google what gamma environment we are in currently.
Not everyone should be forced into the stock market. But 401k passive retirment investors have done just that. Which has caused bubble ... they aren't the only cause of course but they are who are going to be the bag holders, because they have not done the work, they have not read lots of books, or learned how to trade properly or what makes a proper trade etc. This is going to hurt millions of people IMHO.
Finally a thoughful Trader on the Channel
Thoroughly enjoyed this!! Thank you, Gentlemen!
great interview. kevin doesn't do a lot of interviews; it's great to hear from him here.
Although I disagree with some of Kevin's conclusions, he's bringing some fresh perspectives and data here. Thumbs up from me.
Excellent knowledge
kevin is great
Very nice takes out of this. Much appreciated to the both of you! Thanks
Thanks Adam, Kevin was great.
Great Podcast!!!
Much appreciated!
Thanks! Great interview.🎉
Thank you very much!!
Excellent link .I am still long but he has excellent points .Thanks Adam!
Brilliant discussion, Kevin has great points!!
Thank you both!
Super knowledgeable guest, great interview.
Smart guy!!!!easy to understand.
Lance has already told us the answer yesterday.
Time to look for new market leaders?
Listen in Bear markets almost everything falls. Some would say the Russell 2k is the next big move. May I remind you that the Russell 2k is made up of about 1/2 zombie companies and if the interst rates on the 10 year yield (who cares about the 2 year) don't come down fast ... they are in real trouble, as are the banks, and commercial real estate. IMHO is is much better to just short the market (if you have the skill to do it safely and correctly). Going long in a bear market is like swimming up stream or going short in a bull market. There is timing envolved here. And while folks say it is impossible to time the market. What they mean to say is "they can't time the market, but it is possible, great traders and investors do it all the time".
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is following this informative content cheers Frank 😊
When you work on something that only has the capacity to make you 5 dollars, it does not matter how much harder you work - the most you will make is 5 dollars.
People dont understand that the prices of things are never going back down. This inflation is deeper than we think. Those buying groceries are well aware that the real inflation is much over 10%. The increments dont match our income, yet certain investors still earn over $365,000 in stocks and assets. Wish I could accomplish that.
Very possible! especially at this moment. Profits can be made in many different ways, but such intricate transactions should only be handled by seasoned market professionals.
Some persons think inves'tin is all about buying stocks; I think going into the stock market without a good experience is a big risk, that's why I'm lucky to have seen someone like mr Brian.
Finding yourself a good broker is as same as finding a good wife, which you go less stress, you get just enough with so much little effort at things
Brian demonstrates an excellent understanding of market trends, making well informed decisions that leads to consistent profit
Hi Adam,
When the interviewee said they own gold. Are they talking about solid gold bars in a vault somewhere or is he talking about a gold ETF?
Awesome explanation of today’s markets
Anybody else notice how many fewer views wealthion is getting now? We all rock with Adam 🤟
Great Interview, liked his perspective on trading what's in front of you but also his comments on being long on some of your convictions. Interesting take on TIPS and his thoughts on silver, even with many calling for scarcity because of iys use as an industrial metal. Scary the west seems to be selling AU.
Michael Burry was short like we could not believe it, but he found out the hard way. The market seems less rational and more sentimental than it used to be. A correction may be coming (P/E not very rational from the historical perspective), but timing it is a gamble.
It's possible, that the insane S&P valuations are partially due to people feeling, that the dollar is (will be) losing value faster, than the official numbers tell us, and they see stocks as a way to better preserve their wealth, even when the forward sales are rather expensive.
It is quite clear, that the FED will either keep printing money (keep rates artificially lower) and inflate the national debt away, or the US gov't is going to default (even worse for the value of USD). There does not seem to be political will to balance the US budget and to pay off the debt the fair way.
Edit: Well, they actually said all of that. I commented too early.
"it's different this time."
Burry is gay
No timing it is not a gamble. Timing is a little bit of work but not impossible. Your time horizon is what matters. how you do it is easy... or pretty easy. Do this... put a 20 and 200 simple moving average on your chart. If you are an investor that is a monthly or weekly chart, if you are a swing trader that is a daily or 4 hour chart. I am not going to talk about day trading it is too fast for most. When price crosses below the 20 and 200 you are in bear market territory you short the rips not buy the dips. There are other nuances of course but this is the basics. I fear those that are lazy and think time in the market not timing the market that have no idea what money managment, risk managment, and stop loss orders are ... are going to get their faces ripped off.
@@bpb5541 Stop-loss orders cannot protect you from the worst bad news, as those often happen outside of trading hours or on weekends (see the recent Isr@el-Iran scuffle). Stop-loss only works during the continuous auction and only during a reasonably gradual change in the market price.
In case technical signals worked so flawlessly as you make it look, everyone would be trading on that and getting rich (which is a mathematical impossibility, as markets are mostly a zero-sum game).
The best economists are not in the university - they are the best traders living in the market- Kevin is a living example
Great discussion!
Buy dip? ~10% correction?
So many great guests! Will you bring the forensic pension investigator guy on for an update? It would be great to share an update on your new channel explaining the hidden problems with unfunded pension liabilities. Thank you
Good suggestion 👍🏻
Energy prices will explode (food + oil ) if this guy is right.
How many shares does the retail investor buy or sell in any day? How many shares does a market maker buy or sell in any day? Does this delta effect the economy? Or anyone's ability to buy food for a family?
I’m long energy and precious metals as of 2 months ago, and short tech as of last week.
Fully agree. Interest rates hit every sector and borrower uniformly, while QT tightens the credit supply as determined by bank lending, so the effect is more heterogeneous and flexible. This means weak borrowers fail to get credit while strong borrowers get funded, which is exactly what we want credit discipline to impose.
Steve Hanke doesn't entertain the concept of fiscal dominance being a staunch monetarist. He made that clear in a recent interview with Adam. It sounds like that explains the difference between his viewpoint and Kevin's on inflation.
Just a quick question does that price to earnings ratio kind of assume inflated dollars that you know the company's going to be raising prices into inflation so on a raw Mass calculation it is going to be a lower price earnings ratio possibly
Enjoy your content, I think it would help if you added 'section descriptions' (i.e. that show on video when you hover over); it just helps when you want to find specific content. Otherwise, keep up the good work! :)
Kick Ass Interview!! 🎉
Shorting is more dangerous because of short squeeze why don't you mention that, personal interest ofcourse
Shorting is very risky, but for those playing with masses of money and who can offset their risk then I guess it's a way to make money.
NO NO NO. You only need to use stop loss order to define you risk. Going long in a bear market, buying the dips, when you should be selling the rips is dangerous. May I remind you that markets go down 3 times as fast as they go up. Which means those that are good traders, don't fear to short, and use risk and money managment, with set up and positive expectancy are going to take all those 401k ... passive set it and forget investors money. I say this with kindness because I think most people are too lazy to be in the stock market. They think it is easy and it has been for that last 13 years because of a lot of nonsense. That will not last forever. Which means most folks are at great risk and don't even know it.
You should’ve asked about the time Kevin sold a million Bitcoin for a dollar a piece
Yes, higher rates generate money but only to the people who can afford to own the assets. Thank you Adam
Interesting. Thanks!
The intuitive sense that we can't borrow and spend ourselves into prosperity is difficult to deny, though our politicians will try. It's not sustainable and we all know it.
Adam,
Have you ever considered interviewing Stanley Druckenmiller ?
How does the CAD impact your position?
I got quite lost with the explanation of Gama and shorting. Basically it seems like to short you can't be a retail investor unless - you open an CFD account (high risk) or you buy an etf (Lance was mentioning those). Actually I am glad I didn't open a CFD account, as I was convinced the market was going to crash in 2018 and it never did, so I escaped that one!
The REAL "hush money" case in New York is occurring as the Plunge Protection Team is wondering how to the prevent the Markets from collapsing in the upcoming months!
Forget about the prosecution by Alvin & his Chipmunks.
Bingo
This guy pointed out two massive elephants 🐘 and three 800 pound gorillas 🦍 in the same over crowded room.
I love listening to people who have deep skins in the game .So tired of listening to academics and journalists.
How about "the bond market will take away the punch bowl".
2 what happens if a Black Swan event which probably has higher probability than most occurs? I'm referring to the bricks revaluation of the US dollar or China and Russia's revaluation of the dollar in terms of gold. Or the fets revaluation of gold to try to provide a basis for Central Bank currency or a revised dollar. Bricks don't want to sell us commodities for dollars at the current rate of exchange we may need to take their revised rate of exchange as the new price. If two thirds of the world says you know this is the new price and we control 60 to 80% of the Commodities you'd like to buy it's it's hard to force through that you know we we can you know we can do whatever we want and the world will continue when everybody else is saying no which I think is a very high probability
US Treasuries are yielding enough, why risking it in the stock market?
In truth nobody knows its all just conjecture
Amen to that....and that in itself scares me silly. People are making decisions on past dynamics/paradigms that may be wholly inappropriate for this unprecedented world we are in now....or maybe not. This degree of uncertainty has me personally very cautious. I often miss out on some gains, but I sure sleep better at night.
@@mikeinportland30 You miss nothing so long as you dont lose sleep :>)
Timing the market is hard... but not impossible. What is more important is to take a whack at it and have a stop loss that gets you out, with a small loss, when you are wrong. That is how trading and investing is done properly not just buy and keep buying. That works great in bull markets and we have been in the longest bull market in history 13 years to be exact. All things end.
He gives a great sentiment definition of FOMO… you’ll never get in cheaper, buy it now.
Said folks buying houses at the top in 2006. Let's not be naive.
I imagine a bull trap until next month
Agree. We probably start a bounce on Turnaround Tuesday to suck people back in... and then the May rollover will drop faster...
... and when they ditch Powell and cut rates (short end) this summer, that will send inflation expectations (and thus the long end) soaring...along things even worse right into the election... right after which oil will skyrocket since they won't need to suppress it for votes anymore.
Well, don't underestimate the FED. Biden will be wanting to keep the markets happy ahead of the elections.
@@Jalleur14325 for sure. I sense a big war close by, but not until after pass over
checked all my volume controls and at 100% I still wish it was louder.
So, the only hope for the market is to keep the music going because when it stops there's not enough chairs to go around. Great. There's a lot of ruin in a nation...
Hahahah. I have been building my short position for over a year and a half and will continue to do so until we get the yield curve reinversion.
@29:55 😳😳🤔
Go put on a 10 lot in the Nikkei futures. You'll definitely see the market move off it lol
I buying gold 😊
Just my opinion, but I think all assets including Gold, Silver, and BTC get their faces ripped off if (when) we crash. This is when we buy (go long ... those assets) I think BTC goes to a million a coin, but it goes to 10k first.
The deficet is our credit? That’s a nutty way to look at it.
4th, 21 April 2024
I have no doubt he's smart but all the lingo lost this commoner.
I think if he were to use images or an analogy as he explained it would help. With no visuals it's hard to follow
So many people have so little integrity nowadays that never know if a guy is doing the opposite of what he says.
Why does everyone automatically assume stock market sell off = bond market rally? TLT is quickly becoming JNK and gold will take the place of safety.
That's way too confusing.
That's why I play games in the stock market
Rate my portfolio (1=crap 5=nirvana). Equities, single company/non-gold: 23.14%; Equity etfs:8.09% Gold, miners and bars(includes AG): 4.27%;Bond funds:4.10%; FIXED INCOME (Treasuries+Corporate bond):45.15%; Cash: 15.22%. BTW, China is winning on all business metrics, other than BS.
Since when is the government spending more than the consumer spending is a good economy
It is not a stock market is it is a market of stocks. You have to know how to pick individual stocks , but if you don't know how to pick stocks, invest in people invest in the people in your family. Invest in sometimes even your friends who need to get started in business invest in people !
Saying it again, I want to see where this guy is after the crash
With A.I. becoming more and more involved
in market trading the stock market is going to end up
looking like Alpha Zero playing Alpha Zero in a Chess game.
The fiscal authorities will not be restrained, except by the long-term Treasury market. The bond vigilantes have been dormant for 40 years, but they're not dead.
That percentage of the populous has been living a bumpy ride for a couple years. $1200 check doesn’t change that. I do think that those struggling will continue to cut back on spending into fall and Steve and Lacy will probably be right …..except you do have those made ridiculously wealthy over the past 4 yrs will keep spending at a high level ….does that even put the working poors lack of spending???
ISN'T THAT THE DEF OF FISCAL DOMINANCE?
“I own VIX” 🔥🔥🔥
I own a honda
@@user-pg9yj4be6xYamaha here... 🙃😎
Seems like there's a disconnect with some of these economists or stock people that doesn't realize that we are already in a recession and they say everything is fine I hate to see a recession because I know a lot of people who are struggling and living paycheck-to-paycheck
Going into 2023 everyone was bearish and in the recession camp; now everyone is bullish and in the soft landing camp. I don't short the market and I certainly would not over the next month, which is seasonally strong. Another strong surge up to 6000 on S&P is very possible before the tide turns.
The guest here is missing a major connection with his point that the government deficit is our credit… ok, people have more money in their jeans, but the money buys much less and the additional money is less than the loss of buying power. The loss of buying power is driven by the monetary side. So both matter and we are poorer today than yesterday times 2 .
saying to PI’s to get involved with puts or shorting is utterly absurd, they will get burned, if the market is risky which it now looks horribe ffs just go into cash and T bills. You may miss a few points on the upside? so what, its better than getting wiped out like 2022.
sorry Adam... the fear gauge has NOT been bullish all the time over the last 1-2 years... indeed this has been the most hated rally of all time with investors running towards Fear at even the slightest tiny correction... a few brief periods of greed no doubt... but mostly fear...
Adam ,I really like him but he may have misinterpreted the recent cpi figures .I think Lance is right and the recession has been delayed .
I nflation
R alley
A ct
Devaluing your IRA
Is the economy good if everyone's putting their expenses and wants and needs on a credit card
Maybe Kevin can explain to us why Zimbabwe has crashed many times and cannot stabilize their currency. They have been spending tons of money over there yet their economy is dead. This man is so sick, he implies that you are better off if someone steals from you. Why you ask? Well, what do you think government spending does?
The government steals money from the poor through inflation and gives it to the wealthy by supporting asset prices. Depends if you're rich or poor right now. There are certainly MORE poor people than rich. This is devolving into generational and class political conflict.
With China, I'm not really worried about them invading Taiwan from an investment point of view; I'm more worried about the trade war escalating and their real estate crisis worsening. Chinese investments are cheap for a reason, and good luck trying to catch that falling knife.
Do you want to know why both candidates say they're just going to continue spending is because that's all people know nowadays in this new social construct is that people do not know how to save money and all they know how to do is spend and that's the downfall of society
Maybe he doesn't know that the government's fiscal spending gets put into the numbers it makes it look like we're doing well but maybe you should look at overall household debt and credit card delinquencies
Market has already gone up 2% since this video was posted. How are Kevin's shorts doing? 😆
I can hear disappointment in Adam’s voice, Kevin is not playing ball, not proclaiming market crash; GFC or 1929 all over again. Kevin is just being honest, no one knows where market is going , if they claim that they do, then I got an newsletter to sell you. In truth all you can do is have some humility and just trading the market in front of you.
You are hearing something that isn't there. I don't proclaim to have any certainty what the market is going to do. And I brought Kevin on the channel specifically for him to clearly share his forecast.
Well ... what you meant to say is no one can predict the timing of a market crash. WE WILL have another one of those. One thing I can say is the risk for that event goes up daily. There are lots of reason ... way too many to discuss here. Just know that I have been building my short position for the last year and half and will continue to do so. I am not concerned at all for being in the red. And that, and that alone, will probably make me very rich.
This guy totally lost me. Super interesting though trying to follow him on this.
If this guy lost you... may I recommend that you get out of the stock market and buy a money market or CD with that money. Not everyone should be in the stock market. It take sa huge amount of work.
@@bpb5541 I'm not in the stock market. I just like macro economics. It's fascinating to me.
Physical Silver and Gold are the safest and possibly the only way to transfer your wealth to the new dystopian reality! 😮
God help us all! 😢 🙏
As long as the fed is printing multi trillions per year. Valuations will continue higher.
Also senior miners have been sitting on their asses and producing less.
Watch. This. Twice.