The Blame Game Begins: The Moscow Theater Attack, Duty to Warn, and Mobilizing against Ukraine
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- Опубликовано: 14 май 2024
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In the aftermath of the Moscow Theater Attack, an interesting intelligence game began playing out between Russia and the United States. The Kremlin has strong political incentives to tie the attack to Ukraine. Given an earlier warning about the possibility of an attack, the United States likely has information it could release to counter Russian narratives. However, any such revelations risk sacrificing intelligence gathering methods. Thus, the dilemma for the Kremlin is find the right way to frame the attack without inducing the United States to disrupt the process.
This video goes into the details of how such a dilemma works and the complications that come with it.
0:00 The Brewing U.S.-Russia Intel Battle
2:43 What Is "Duty to Warn"?
6:20 Early Warnings of an Attack
8:43 Russia's Ukraine Claims
10:42 Russia's Domestic Reaction to the Link
11:58 The Intelligence Game
16:55 How to Play the Game with Uncertain Information
The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.
Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/...
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"But they wanted to flee to Ukraine!!1"
Yes, through Russian held border checkpoints and hundreds of miles of warzone. Riiiiiight.
after being rejected from Belarus it would make sense as a desperate last ditch plan: pose as a deserter and pray somehow they won't ask too many questions.
the payment in rubles sets it all
B. S. As it is
German's did that sneak-away tricks in 1943-50~ so possible
im voting putan is looking-for or knowledge of USA 🇺🇸 CIA and or president's war-game's as both players are trying not to ICBM each other for 1890's_up but haven't fully committed yet or figured how to win-fully etc
They tried to climb Himalaya toward Ukraine.
Yeah like that's the funniest shit ever. Ah yes, flee to Ukraine where all your intelligence and security agencies are focused? And your national guard units along the border? As you said, through Russian border crossings and a literal fucking war zone. Totally legit claim there Putler XD
At this point, dog poop on the streets of Moscow will be blamed on Ukrainian malfeasance.
Mal-fece-nce lol
I read that snoop dogg will be blamed
Putinkhylo can only kill Navalny once... he needs new enemies to draw attention away from him
Lol, there is an old Russian joke that our porches are dirty because Obama has taken a shit there
It does matter
Russia: "It is clear to us that the ones behind the attack is-"
ISIS-K: "It was us."
Russia: "You see? Ukraine admitted it!"
Ukraine: "What?"
ISIS-K: "What?"
Russia: "What?"
PRC: what?
Belarus: WHAT???
@@animeXcaso the Chechens: "Are we a joke to you??!!"
ISIS-K: But... I really was the one behi-
Russia: Hush! You don't matter.
ISIS-K: I just want to be a relevant terror organization again. This is outrageous, it's unfair ;-;
Comedy gold. Couldn't make it up!
Victoria Nuland: No, I am to blame for Moscow attack.
USA: 'What?'
Never let a disaster go to waste
ماقام بة نظام كييف بتخطيط الولايات المتحدة الأميركية الشيطان الأكبر وحلفائها الاشرار الناتو وشمال الاطلسي من عمل ارهابي إجرامي يدل على فشلهم الذريع في مواجهة روسيا الاتحادية العظمى 🇷🇺
أبن دولة اليمن مر من هنا 🇾🇪
@@user-on2eq7eh4d what is blud waffling on about
Never let a crisis go to waste - a certain Democrat
Same conspiracy nonsense is being applied to the Baltimore bridge crash
Just like Moscow false flags before second Chechen War
- The USA warns Russia (a state that they are basically in a cold war with) of an impending terror attack.
- Putin openly derides that warning and basically tells the USA to "shut up".
- The terror attack happens and the russian police seem completely unprepared for it.
- Putin blames the USA for conducting that terror attack.
( the whole world simultaneously face palms)
I mean, you dont even have to say anything more than this. In any normal country there would be a public outcry to get the "great" leader to step down immediately.
Conclusions: Putin was planning the attack, this is why it annoyed him the US knew about it already
British intelligence warned Stalin that Germany was going to attack in 1941.
And it was ignored for Stalins political agenda at the cost of 28,000,000 Soviet lives.
Putin doesn't care about his people.....nor did Stalin. Tgey care about POWER
Russian citizens: "can the truth really be known, though?"
the US was Damned if you do, damned if you don't. And agree in any normal democratic country there would be such outrage if a pre-warned attack went ahead - that the 'great leader' would be under such intense pressure. Meanwhile in business as usual Russia ...
@@Ikbeneengeit or "do we really want to know?"
when even Belarus does not buy your shit any more...
Lol you can't ve serious... they are a puppet state of Russia
@@SlotsxMyxThingLukashenko literally said that the terrorists were trying to get to Belarus, not Ukraine.
Putin is just a lonely delusional man at the end of a long table these days
I think it was more a matter of national pride, we're the market leader in harbouring personae non grata of Moscow, we have the infrastructure.
@@marcdc6809 What national pride? Belarus is one decree from being annexed to Russia
The more Putin blames Ukraine, the more vulnerable he makes Moscow to, well, everyone else. Thanks for the video!
You're right. If he concentrates his attention on Ukraine and disregarding everything else he puts Russia in even more risk.
The ISIS might for example attack again because they are getting ignored and the threat not taken seriously
Wrong
@@Mortarion-xt9wp LOL not what the globalsouth see.
1. The USA has warned Russia but the CIA did not warn Americans when 911 happened. Why?
2. ISIS has never attacked the USA and Israel, why?
3. In Indonesia (not my country), the current USA ambassador has visited the Indonesia Prosperous Justice Party Headquarters. This party is the only Islam hardliner party in Indonesia. Turnp has also asked Germany and Japan to visit Petamburan, the headquarters of the Islam hardliner of the Islamic Defender Front (an NGO) that supports ISIS.
4. As per Aljazeera, the US embassy also warned Syria that there was a demonstration that would force Baasyar to step down. Unfortunately, Syria spy agents told the current Syria president that the USA was the mind master of that demonstration. This news has made Syria ask Russia for help.
@@Mortarion-xt9wp the last reason is why the USA lied about Iraqi WMD?
@@MSDGroup-ez6zk
Simple answer to number 1. 9/11 happened prior to the Patriot Act, establishment of NSA and Five Eyes. It jump-started the war on terror, but also the rapid build-up and modernization of US Intelligence. We are seeing the result of that. Western Intelligence is now unmatched because the NSA essentially has access to every device on the planet with an algorithm sifting through it ALL for any potential information of value to counter-terrorism operations and efforts. Likely also anything pertinent to other US interests, such as the war in Ukraine. This is why I believe Russia has struggled so but the fact remains... US Intelligence pre-9/11 was a baby compared to the behemoth it has been built into now.
One point you did not bring up: The more Putin makes everything about Ukraine, the need for victory increases, and the fatality of setbacks increases. ISIS-K could be a scapegoat to blame a forced retreat from Ukraine on, but if all the eggs are in one basket, the state literally stands or falls on that issue.
@@aniksamiurrahman6365 lol! Somebody can't handle hypothetical if-then logic. Also...
You guys, I found the Putin worshiper in the comments! This is adorable! Is there a prize for finding him?
I also do not understand Ukraine is losing big time - but some just do not want to see it.... What boggles me why would ISI conduct terorist attack in Russia ??? To what end ? @@aniksamiurrahman6365
@@aniksamiurrahman6365
@@aniksamiurrahman6365 Putin worshippers when Ukraine doesn’t win the war in one day.
What about an intelligent response to his comment guys? It’s ironic. The Russian people probably don’t see the need to thwart ISIS, who just killed 137 of their private citizens, would warrant a retreat from Ukraine, but if Ukraine did it, that would be intolerable and no lengths would be too great.
So contrary to Putin, Ukraine actually isn't Russia if the gunmen were trying to escape to Ukraine.
But if Ukraine is Russia according to Putin, that also means that Russia is Ukraine, so technically they could have been fleeing deeper into Russia.
What a brain dead analogy
“Ukraine’s doesn’t exist!”
“Ukraine is responsible for the attack.”
O, before I forget. Someone mentioned you on another channel, Perun. It was a compliment because both of you offer us critical analysis without insulting our intelligence.
Didn't Spaniel wisecrack a few videos back about his viewers watching videos where the voice over is in an Australian accent? Whatever the cheeky reference was, I did a double take thinking "he did a joke on Perun."
Perun is kills your brain cells. That guy is full of cringe jokes pulled from reddit. Cringe smug and russia lost then the primates in comments cheer on him
@@pabloapostar7275 Pretty sure it was a PowerPoint joke. Perun is proof that PowerPoint can be well done. Especially if you don't just read off the slides.
@@pabloapostar7275there were also the whole market share economics with Perun moving in on his territory/market share and driving up competition but it being a net benefit for both of them
ISIS: This was definitely us.
Putin: Did you say US....A?
Yeah because they're controlled by Israel, a month ago they attacked Iran and now they attack Russia
"Corporate wants you to find the difference between these two images"
"They are the same"
😂
CIA created ISIS so yeah
ISIS; We did that
Putin; Ukraine did that
ISIS; Seriously? We just took responsibility for it AND threatened Russia publicly this time about another attack.
Putin; I lock down Moscow and win sham election. Who will stop me?
ISIS; Ok….wait for it.
It must be simply exhausting for the kleptomaniac in the Kremlin to pretend he’s not a sociopath at times like this.
I'm not convinced that he's trying to pretend that. Rather, I suspect that he's trying to establish a precedent of the people accepting that he's a sociopath, and falling into line anyway.
My understanding is that part of the social contract between Russian elites and the general public is “if you funnel the sociopaths into politics, we’ll all backstab one another and leave the rest of you alone”. Whether that’s a *good* deal for the ordinary Russian isn’t mine to say.
There is a police station in the same complex as the theatre and a miitary base like 10 minutes away.
yet they arrived after 50 minutes, imagine that!
@@newwonderer more like an hour and 15 minutes
Sorry original post was unnecessarily snarky.
Edit: I think responders need time to prepare to engage with heavily armed gunmen, so you need to account for much more than just drive time
Im not at all surprised nobody came from the military base. They might not even have personnel that are supposed to do that.
I agree it's surprising that not even police showed up though. Like how was there NOBODY responding for so long?
@@TheDarksideFNothingbecause they knew, I've seen 2 FSB agents that were inside men during the attack, they didn't even try to disguise their faces, and they're all wearing the exact same setup
Where were those guys? Playing Ping-Pong? The Police would have had to put ear plugs in to block out the sounds! How was that possible?
WEIRD.... "Men in blue" filming and yelling at the crowd to close the door, locking them in with the Shooters.... blue sweaters, blue jeans, combat wrist watches - No response for 90 minutes with security and armory in the adjacent building while civilians being shot - No response for 90 minutes from fire companies with the building burning - Waiting for the Shooters to leave before acting - Shooters travel public roads toward Belarus in the known car for 7 hours -- Shooters with specialized Kalashnikov 101 security service weapons - Putin not responding for 16 hours while apparently tracking events and public mood. WEIRD.... almost like Putin always wanted Russians to "Rally round the flag" and "allowed and encouraged" the attack.
Yes, I saw that and tried to seach but not much. And I 'personally' think (no proof at all and will be slammed by the bots) that it is exactly as you say.
Sure coincidences happen, but for things to align like this - means either they are responsible or otherwise are the most inept and useless counter terrorism force known.
Yup, but isis did show evidence that it was actually them. It's 🤷♀️🥴🤷♀️😩🥴 for the observer on the outside.
We saw the same thing at Robb Elementary in Uvalde, Tx. Sometimes it's just stupidity and cowardice...not a conspiracy.
Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.
On this one it's not in Putin's interest for terror attacks to happen like that in Moscow. I don't think it was Putin.
It's honestly impressive, how fast you are able to produce such good videos.
Love your great work, keep it going!
EXACTLY! I went a searchin for Crocus analysis ... and came up with nothing much .... how you can formulate, write and produce such content in this timeframe is impressive!!!
@@andrewrossy we call it propaganda just like it has happened in Vietnam and Iraqi WMD.
@@MSDGroup-ez6zkComrade Bot, what is your point?
@@eriks.9730, There just here to stir the pot. They're goof-balls. I think they get paid by the responses. v
The enunciation would exhaust me.
You know, I work in a school for kids with behavioral issues. And the parallels are just uncanny.
Can you elaborate? I want to know
Yes, please do ... really interested here
Parallels to what?
Bullies? Delusional thinking. What parallels are uncanny, pray tell-please. v
Unchecked power isn’t good for the human psyche, let alone ability to make sound decisions.
It seems odd for a country to try to motivate their population to fight in a war by saying, "Look at what the country we invaded did back to us after we attacked them without provocation!!!"
Because it is an appeal to hate, stupidity and most of all tribalism, not to rational thinking.
So, instead of that, he says it's a special military operation to free Russians who were enslaved by not-sees. For the people who believe that narrative, then it makes sense to blame the same people for the concert wrecking.
As far as the other side... where is Isis K supposed to be from? Are they a real group, not CIA, and the local people there are like, yep, it's them?
If so, is it difficult for the people in Russia to find out that this group claims responsibility, and to see their video? Are Russians in general aware of Muslim grievances about Syria and Chechniya?
I probably didn't spell that right... I assume Russians would know more than I do, about their military operations, but anything's possible. It seems like Putin would have an uphill battle in explaining to his people why the gunmen would be heading for his military's front lines ("escaping to Ukraine"), instead of going to Belarus, EU or south. Even the believers would have to suspend disbelief.
My working theory is that the voting is over and done, so there is less motivation for explaining things, or for the explanations having to make sense.
It worked with 9/11. Obviously then the situation was a little bit more complicated but the tragedy still allowed USA to introduce heavy surveillance to own citizens. Not to mention the forever wars
Everyday people in music venues are not considered legitimate targets.
yeah without provocation...you make a good parrot repeating after Biden, except there's monumental evidence of Ukraine bombing donbas for 8 years after their government was overthrown by CIA in 2014 and had a nazi leadership installed. You have to be literally brain dead to think Russia would just randomly attack ukraine without provocation, gatto be REEEEEEEAL stupid.
My biggest fear is that with how successful the attack was, other terror organizations will see it and say to themselves “opportunity”
I hope youtube doesnt demonetize your video because of that tactical dog clip.
It was a bit graphic.
🤣
😂😂😂😂...v
I'll report him for that since it's half assed yankee propaganda channel that needs to be censored anyway.
It was a recruitment video 😂
My hope is that the USA already decided to reveal their intelligence, but is just waiting for Russia to maximise its stupidity 😂
Because Russia thinks they are ruling the world not usa
LOL. ISIS has never attacked the USA and Israel. Russia is not that stupid.
@@MSDGroup-ez6zkthey ignored the usa intelligence agency warning
Dumbmaxxing 😭
Russia is a pro at that
Russia will just claim its made up propaganda. "The guy whos testicles we electrocuted admitted to being sent by Zelenskyy"
*Pfft* A new Tunguska event could happen, and Putin would still blame Ukraine for it😅
Come on everybody know that ukraine is responsible for the death of dinosaurs, global warming, 14th century black death, hiroshima, the fall of babylon, 9/11, jar jar binks, covid 19, that one time you fell in lava with a full stack of diamond in your inventory, and both world war... among other things.
Ukrainian Nazi Meteor Attack!
At this rate, he'll blame Ukraine for the first one.
This is the most professional analysis of this conflict currently
100% agreed! v
Next step is to blame SBU for the sunset and the kidnapping of the sun?
Zelensky's machinations are truly horrendous
@@AquaticIdealist Dont you agree? Whats next...?
@@steffenc77I’ve heard Ukraine is plotting a massive thermal assault in a year or so. They plan on heavily reducing the temperature, increasing Ice formation and deploying snow to slow Russian troops. They call it operation “Winter”
head of SBU openly celebrated this in front of a journalist on camera and said Russia should prepare for more terror attacks like this. Yeah clearly Ukraine would never do this, i mean their nazi leadership is friends with american nazi leadership who are both at war with Russia, WHAT POSSIBLE MOTIVE WOULD THEY HAVE!? Especially after committing countless acts of terrorism prior to this, NO THIS DOES NOT SOUND LIKE CIA NAZI STRATEGY!
they also took bite out of moon
Thank You!
You are welcome, Sir First Commenter.
@@Gametheory101 LOL you gain money from selling lies called propaganda. A simple question to you, why has ISIS never attacked the USA and Israel. Definitely, Russia is not stupid.
@@Gametheory101, You're the best! Thanks for posting & all your efforts; appreciate. v
I would like to point out that warning perhaps was not "early" as many have said... But instead, since the warning was made public... Maybe they simply chose another date, time and place for the attack.
nah, more to gather intel
Never let a tragedy go to waste.
Is that a Dick Cheney quote?
I absolutely love your videos. I watch them as soon as they release. You are simply the best! Also: you are hands down the funniest political commentator out there. Don’t think for a second your jokes aren’t landing! It’s like lines on maps (ponder that one for a moment)
What a huge "I told you so" moment
This is like the comic when Putin is riding a bicycle and then stucks ISIS-K into his front wheel and falls down.
"Fucking ukraine!"
Just wanted to say thank you for always having relevant information for me to learn from.
You have a talent for breaking things down to make complicated issues very easy to understand
all he does is parrot propaganda, good to know chewed up fake news is so digestible for you. 1 look at yankee propaganda and i saw right through it, must be superior Russian genetics, can't get fooled by stuff meant to fool retar- you know.
Always cool when you make a video on recent developpments and it shows their relevence.
except this channel is propaganda and you're just being fed lies.
What do you mean? Do you have an example?
@@telperinquarcurufinyelde1597 That would require yet another look at this video, not doing that. Personally all this yankee propaganda just never took off for me, shitty lies just don't fool me.
But If you actually struggle to see through the bs, go watch some channel that brings credible people on the show that can explain the basics, that way when someone tries to explain stuff above the basics, you immediately know when they're lying, because they can't even get the basic stuff right. Colonel Macgregor, Scott Ritter, those are the people who actually know what they're talking about.
Thanks! I just love your content
Thank you so much! Very generous.
Genuinely thank you for posting the dog video instead of the actual one. Anyone who actually wants to see that can find it for themselves.
I cant, where do you find that kind of videos anyway
@@aceice8216i first saw it on telegram, but I'd actually warn against watching it.
@aceice8216, Keep looking. It's out there. v
Hey martinharttefc, Same. Who really needs to see the s***. Those people are insane. v
Hey martinharttefc, Same. Who really needs to see that s***. Those people are insane & are seriously brainwashed. v
William Spaniel for your weekly "Lines on Thoughts"
I don't know how to say, but the joy that comes from what you did to my head is bejond priceless! - and it's even for free...
Thank you so much for educating us!
lol Bludder werkin' that thang like a speed-bag, huh?
Awesome analysis, you always know how to put lines to good use.
😂
This is exactly the type of video I like about this channel. Graphical explanations of difficult theories make the world that bit more understandable to us !
Thank you
William, you're the best. I took the time to read through the responses and mainly you have sane humans commenting politely. Lucky U. Thanks for posting. v
The U.S literally warned Russia and blame the U.S 😂
That's not what John Kirby said. You've been fooled because you are very easy to fool.
@@Proxymatedwho tf is John Kirby?
Lovely to see game theory being played out in such an interesting way.
+1 for extending the "lines on maps" theme to creative "lines on graphs".
(though not the first time)
It does help to visualize the stakes and the effects of choices.
It's funny how a statement like "a picture sais more than a thousand words" often suggests a photo or drawing, but personally I prefer a good graph with well defined axes over any amount of text.
Great video as usual. Many thanks, you are the best.
Cant we all just get along? Or on the other side..Where is that meteor we where all promissed...😮
Thank you Dr Spaniel. Excellent work. I really like the analysis of the Russian distortion.
Do you know if he critiques film?
All you did was inhale yankee propaganda. How gullible you are.
But distortion, you mean quest for the truth, rather than the Nazi lover cover-up!
Thank you for your well-thought-out, informative videos.
What an excellent analysis ... thankyou.
Your T's are murdering my ears. But I endure, your videos are worth it.
On point.. As always 🙂
on point yankee propaganda straight from the ass of uncle sam
As always great informative videos.
Thank-you William, I did not find anyone hanging around in today's video.
Thanks for the lesson, sir. You're a regular dose of critical thinking.
Great video, your insights really are a game changer for a person like me.
I came for the Ukrainian/Russian conflict analysis, and stayed for the beginner's introduction to game theory. Thank you, professor Spaniel!
Came here to hear about your book.
😅😅😂
Me 😂😂😂 too! Here to hear about his book. v
Thanks. Always a pleasure learning from you.
Wow, you listened to a 19 minutes video i less than 1!
I speed-read also@@lori2364
Thanking for the prior vids while watching. I also speed-read.@@lori2364
Yes. Another video!
Thank you!
What types of math would you use to rigorously tackle this type of analysis/modeling? Would you consider 2nd, 3rd or higher order effects? Or is what you presented about as far as we can go with the limited info available? Thank you for sharing this model, very interesting to see how you think about it.
calm down COD sergeant, this is just yankee propaganda.
@@Proxymated?
Thanks
Thank you!
thank you!
Thanks William
NEGLIGENCE, criminal NEGLIGENCE and INCOMPETENCE, that is the minimum way to characterize the posture of Putin and the FSB for not taking any measure to prevent the terrorist attack.
They had prevented one just a week before. It's 😩🥴 confusing.
Preventing that stuff is not exactly easy. Especially when youre focusing on a war. And they are finally calling it a war.
@@pflernak I agree. Preventing it would be difficult, but minimizing it was very well possible with very simple measures such as metal detectors on (they were switched off) and a small team of properly armed policemen, visible at the entrance of the venue and in some strategic places, as we regularly see in European airports and train stations. Putin, FSB and the police did nothing. Negligent, there is no better word for qualifying all of them.
John Kirby said there was no terrorist attack coming. Then it happens and US immediately blames ISIS with no evidence. But it's easy to fool stupid people who can't read, i know.
Excellent William
Love your videos
I can see how the "exposure cost" may or may not be worth compromising the sources...huh...ty for the content.
I was wondering whether more time since the attack means more time for the CIA to get its sources out of Russia, therefore more likely to reveal what it knew and how/when (in order to strengthen credibility).
I'm sure we'll find out on a Friday news dump soon. Love the theory behind your thoughts there. Great perspective embedded in there.
I believe Russian intelligence was faulty when they underestimated the strength of Ukraine....and here we we go again blaming the wrong group.
you're literally a bot aren't you
Instant like crew 👍🏻
You've seen lines on maps, now get ready for... Lines on Lines.
William Spaniel is basically teaching us game theory without bring up the words "game theory".
Oops, I have been found out
I was waiting for the exception: "You do not need to warn the victim, if you are the one who intends to do the strike". Looks like they missed that one.
Thanks.
Thanks for the prime directive
When the MW2 storyline starts to become reality. Remember, no Russian.
Counties should take the intelligence seriously usa or not
Especially, US intelligence.
It is currently the most reliable and well funded intelligence organization in the world.
Excellent work
Great program
They tried to climb Himalaya toward Ukraine.
IS is jumping up and down claiming it, they don't understand WTF... how Ruzzia keeps saying it was Ukraine and USA.
Well, IS... you're such a newbie... welcome to the Vranyo Federation!
I mean, as William said, it is in ISIS interest to claim responsibility. That's how they recruit. They could've claimed it just for the giggles.
More recruits without any actual involment = easy win.
The dog video is, in fact, a better video. Thank you for sharing it with us.
The intel cost section is one of the most interesting points I have seen raised on RUclips this month!
There was a special police K9 unit in the adjoining building just 200m away, search Отдел полиции микрорайона Павшино and it will show up. What about the men in blue? What 5000USD terrorists buys the most expensive AK103, a gun very hard to get? What police takes over 1 hour + to show up?
Uvalde PD
@@ByZHellas we all knew that answer was forthcoming.
When you look at Uvalde PD and yes 100% correct there, what they did was the same. That is in a country town of 15K people. It is not a city, a capital city, a capital city of a wannabe Superpower (ok going too far).
Uvalde the officers took a long time to go inside, not arrive. It would have been impossible for the shooter to stroll out, pass a police station and then drive off.
I❤USA!
Interesting new setup with lines on lines this video
Means and sources are more important than the intel itself. Never saw it presented that way though! COOL!
The US: It was ISIS.
The EU: It was ISIS.
The UK: It was ISIS.
Ukraine: It was ISIS.
Qatar: It was ISIS.
India: It was ISIS.
Israel: It was ISIS.
ISIS: It was us.
Pootin: It has to be Ukraine.
You can't even make this shit up anymore. Pootin would blame Ukraine if he had a tummy ache at this point. Can't imagine ISIS is happy about this either.
It wasn't ISIS. It was the CIA, MI6, MOSSAD and SBU. Victoria Nuland is behind this, but she was forced to resign after being discovered. Seems like she planned for this to happen without consulting anyone else. A true psychopath.
CIA: CREATES ISIS
America: HURRR IT WAS ISIS NO INVESTIGATION NEEDED
America: LITERALLY CREATED ISIS.
@@Proxymated USA has has some interessts in monitoring terrorists after 2001.
This is why the U.S has good intell on terrorist plans.
Russia is also an enemy of Isis, USA is not everyones main focus. And with Russia doing more to monitir if its own population is saying something negative about Putin and the war, thats why Russia was easy for Isis to enter
@@Proxymated Not to mention that ISIS literally has US Humvees
nice dog video, appreciate it
A video on how governments quantify the various different factors when making decisions would be interesting. Even if you can't get hold of any confidential documents.
The cheeky book plugs are back!
Putin is the most obsessed leader of a country since WW II. Obsessed with an assumed glorious Russia of the past, obsessed with 'seeing' foreign enemies everywhere, obsessed with Ukraine and obsessed with his legacy. The US being better informed about terrorist threats within Russia than RU itself, further feeds Putin's obsessions, possibly to the point of pure fatalism.
True, but you did not include information control in your list of putler's "obsessions". he's only powerful if the people allow him to be. By obsessively controlling the media / narrative within russia- the influence western media has on the population will also be limited.
back in 2015, director of national intelligence james clapper, clapped some cheeks
Another great video (and so soon after the relevant events) that is a good example of using ideas based in *formal theory.* Given that you do so in so many videos, I think it might be appropriate to discuss the assumptions, strengths, and criticisms of this methodology. I personally believe that Putin (and many politicians) are only partly rational. That would have ramifications for the theoretical tradeoffs you discuss. In particular, increased uncertainty would embolden the risk approaching side (presumably Putin) and have the opposite effect on the risk averse (Biden). The result is that Putin is more likely to get what he wants from his spinning of the events.
What a well put together analysis! I wonder... How could a layman such as myself learn a bit about how to analyze situations in this manner? What would I need to read?
Dr. Spaniel has a couple playlists that go deeper into the subject. Look for “International Relations 101” and “Bargaining & War”. They give bite-sized chunks of 5-15min, and need only basic algebra. (There are citations if you want to dig deeper into the math.)
@@Jszar wonderful! Thank you! 🙏
Wake up babe, new William Spaniel upload
Good reporting, as usual. Thank you. Go Democracy.
We finally have a video without lines on maps, but now we changed it to arrows on lines
William spaniel your lines and bars beg to be molded in to a math model. Could you do just one episode explaining everything you know about the math models you use and how to calculate the best actions to take? Maybe a good video submission for summer of math 4. :)
There’s an entire playlist on that: Bargaining and War Full Course
ruclips.net/p/PLKI1h_nAkaQrvKPtuPMXkU4yXCDSp_NHh
I wish the CIA was as powerful as some deluded people think they are
Lets be honest USA 🇺🇸 intelligence works 😂 like it or not!!!!
yeah i mean CIA created ISIS so of course they know who did it when CIA obviously did it.
❤ thank you 🙏 my Personal political analyst...
Very good 👍 reporting indeed