The 12 Causes of the Russo-Ukrainian War
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- Опубликовано: 28 май 2024
- Check out my new book "What Caused the Russia-Ukraine War? (And How Will It End?)" on Amazon (paid link): amzn.to/3OIXk6E
What caused the Russo-Ukrainian War? This video tackles that question in four phases. First, we examine the substantive reasons Russia invaded Ukraine. Second, I explain why those reasons are collectively a half-cause for war. Third, we switch gears to discuss bargaining problems. Finally, we will investigate what each of these explanations implies for how the war will end.
0:00 Outline
1:19 Separatist Regions
3:54 Crimean Land Bridge
5:02 Russian Irredentism
6:42 East-West Rivalry
7:49 Energy
9:36 Water
10:34 Nazis
12:20 Substantive Explanations Are Half-Causes
12:54 Visualizing War's Expected Outcome (LINES ON MAPS)
14:21 Costs Incentivize Bargaining
15:09 Bargaining over Oil
17:00 Bargaining over Autonomy
17:34 Why War Is Puzzling
18:52 Preventive War and Shifting Power
21:00 Preemptive War and First Strikes
24:20 Uncertainty and Miscalculation
26:24 Rational, Unitary Actor Explanations for War
27:05 Irrationality
29:39 Personal Benefits
31:28 Substantive Cases and War Termination
32:57 Leadership Change
36:36 Stopping Power Shifts
39:52 Information Convergence
42:29 Endgame
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Did you enjoy this video? Check out my new book based on it "What Caused the Russia-Ukraine War? (And How Will It End?)". It's a significant expansion on these ideas---the script for this video is about 6,000 words, whereas the book is 42,000. The digital version is out now available at amzn.to/3HY5aqW. You can also read it for free by signing up for a Kindle Unlimited trial at amzn.to/3QMsBr8. (These are affiliate links, meaning I earn a commission when you make a transaction through them. Even if you read it for free, you are still supporting the channel.)
Physical edition coming soon!
Ukraine interior minister is a Neo Nazis. One of the founders of the Azov Battalion. Do they have political power in Ukraine or not? You must be pro west. Why didn't you mentioned about the burning of Russian speakers in Odessa? The bombing in Donbas? Russia is winning and will forever occupy the liberated lands. So this video is bias
Oh, You forgot to mention that ukranian Nazis also burned 50 Rússian speaking ukranians Alive, and a dozen more atrocities during those years...
This is in fact Western/US propaganda pretending to be unbiased.
The one thing I have to say is 69 is considered old when the life expectancy in the country is only 73. Western countries have a much longer life expectancy with the USA being north of 78. I would expect Russia to use less efficient industry with almost non-existent environmental regulations. Higher pollution equals ever present toxic compounds. I wouldn't rule out neurological problems at that age in that case.
I enjoyed the video. It makes sense based on the information I am fed through my screens.
Dear George Orwell, those screens you said that were full of propaganda that we could not switch off. Well it's us that struggles to turn the screens off.
Good news though because in a few small countries they genuinely have structures in place to help ensure democracy and that the government works for the people. Unfortunately this isn't spreading to the large countries very well.
Do you have any advice?
Meh man i don't think that you know much about people who lives in post soviet states.Highly likely that if the war would last too long people would desire to end it.But that will not be a negotiations.Most likely people would demand a victory,so it means a mobilization of troops,not a 200 k troops but about a 5 million to overcome the Ukraine forces.Thats the true.And its the the worst outcome for Ukraine.Highly likely if this happens that Ukraine will lose independence.
You missed one of the biggest sources of friction: Ukraine has no reason to trust Russia. The way you use lines to demonstrate how it ought to be possible to reach negotiated settlements assumes that the parties trust that a negotiated settlement will be honored. Without trust, giving up land in exchange for nothing more than promises of peace just gives the other side a better starting position when it makes more demands in a few years, or starts a war if the weaker nation refuses to submit to the future demands. Ukraine has every reason to fear that if Russia is allowed to get away with it, Russia will keep taking bites out of Ukraine every few years until what is left of Ukraine is weak enough that Russia can conquer the entire nation. That makes it imperative to prevent Russia from winning or at least to make whatever Russia gains costly enough to strongly discourage future aggression.
An end to the war that resolves all open border disputes would allow Ukraine to join NATO
Can we include US State Department Efforts since 1950 to employ former Nazis Soldiers to perform espionage in Ukraine?
Can the idea that Victoria Nuland used political influences to create a seperatist Nation that was another Colony of the US to threaten Russia?
That seems to have some significant proof of the intention to find some return on investment in the Kyiv Government? The IMF handed over a $16 billion "Loan". that seemed to purchase allegiance.....
The US and British Military trained some of Ukraines Troops..
The US claims they have delivered over $5 billion worth of weapons to Ukraine since 2014.
We might begin to suspect that William Spaniel gas an agenda and his presentation is simply another one sided presentation of partial facts.....?
and if that is the case, then so be it. The Ukraine historically, has been used to INVADE Russia 5 times of note, and the Ukraine is the one with the distrust ? HA HA HA HA HA HA HA.
This take on the conditions for peace assumes something known as REALISM, where every nation acts only in self benefit, but they will behave rationally, react to incentives, and are predictable.
Trust is irrelevant in this form of analysis, neither side needs to "Trust" each other nor do they need to Trust each other at all, and peace is achieved when both sides believe neither can realistically accomplish their objectives, nor realistically be able to do so in the near future.
This utilizes "Balance of power" theory, where a balance is created, where both sides have an opinion of where they see the line should be drawn. In the Information Convergence section, he mentions this. Those aren't arbitrarily drawn lines, but rather where both sides see the stalemate is and where further action by either side would no longer result in any gain for either side.
Evaluating trust is just too difficult, since its already assumed that no nation states "trust" each other in the first place. For example, NATO isn't held together by trust, but it is by the collective incentive of protecting each other against a threat. Each nation will respond to NATO since not doing so will see them kicked out, and they would lose all incentives that NATO provides.
I know its odd to have something that seems rather random to be approached empirically, but there's some very neat studies into this if you're interested. People have been compiling their thoughts on state-craft and peace for centuries
@@DaaronIrwing god, you people are naive.
Give them an inch, and they’ll take a mile
Sometimes compromise is impossible under geopolitical concerns
Which inch?
That inch that NATO shouldn't move to the East as it was promised to Gorbachov by that US man? 😉
@@angelaantonova743 1) is there any document where such promise is written or its just some old wives tale? 2) just think about that time: the cold war is over, ussr lost, it is crumbling, republics getting independence from ussr. Why would ever anyone from the side that won(USA) promise anything to the side that already lost (USSR) ? It makes no sense.
@@angelaantonova743 it wasn't about NATO, but about Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania being afraid of Russia
Russia already invaded them few times
stop denying them freedom of choice
by now most of your neighboring countries hate you for a reason
@@angelaantonova743 NATO promised not to station troops in East Germany and somehow people try to mislead it to "NATO promised not a single inch to the east"
@@ZoragRingael No other country ever invaded and destroyed more innocent countries than USA, with & w/out the help of NATO, so the last person I wanna listen about unprovoked invasions is from an American.
When other countries beg you not to invade their country and they beg the whole world to step in and protect against the greatest terrorist on the planet earth, but terrorist America still invades kills and destroys and leaves the very very rich countries turned into ruins.
About 60% of American GDP comes from military. After invading an innocent country, terrorist charges 35% of the GDP from the innocent countries to protect themselves from (American made) terrorists which they never ever had before American invasion.
Have any of you fake compassionate guys ever stood with Afghanistan🇦🇫, Iraq🇮🇶, Yemen🇾🇪, Libya🇱🇾, Nicaragua🇳🇮, Kuwait🇰🇼, Korea🇰🇷, Panama🇵🇦, Cuba🇨🇺, Puerto Rico🇵🇷, Bosnia🇧🇦, Haiti🇭🇹, Dominican Republic🇩🇴, Columbia, Hawaii, Samoa🇼🇸, Argentina🇦🇷, Chile🇨🇱, Philippines🇵🇭, Guatemala🇬🇹, Lebanon🇱🇧, Congo🇨🇩, Vietnam🇻🇳, Laos🇱🇦, Ecuador🇪🇨, Brazil🇧🇷, Indonesia🇮🇩, Syria🇸🇾, Japan, Russia🇷🇺, Greece🇬🇷, Fiji🇫🇯, China🇨🇳, Cambodia🇰🇭, Oman🇴🇲, West Africa, Angola🇦🇴, Iran🇮🇷, El Salvador🇸🇻, Macedonia🇲🇰 Albania🇦🇱, Grenada🇬🇩, Honduras🇭🇳, Bolivia🇧🇴, Venezuela🇻🇪, Liberia🇱🇷, Yugoslavia, Marquesas Island, Croatia🇭🇷, Zaire, Sudan🇸🇩, Native American lands and many many other countries when America the terrorist was destroying them. Terrorist unprovokenly forced the whole world to use the dollar. The only 3 countries in this world that America didn't stick it's nose into are Andora, Bhutan & Liechtenstein.
USA is the deadliest aggressor & has the most blood on it's hands than any other country ever existed on the planet earth.
“Both candidates declared themselves Victor.” Very nice.
Loss of sea corridor for Ukraine will be devastating. Zelensky understands this and is willing to take the painful route if Russia won't stop.
yeah the problem with Zelensky - aside from his gross corruption - is that his "painful route" involves getting a world war, likely a nuclear war, happening....
@@julianciahaconsulting8663 Hardly. Russian fuckers should just leave Ukraine and go home. Ukraine has every right to defend its borders and all the west should support it at it. For us it is the cheapest way possible to disarm Russia and bomb its military reserves into oblivion. Beside, most people in Ukraine do not want to suffer under russian occupation, with rape, theft, torture and mass murders being so common.
@@julianciahaconsulting8663 Does "corruption" include you Russian trolls lying for money? Or do you lie for free?
@@jackkessler9876 Give it a rest with your Neo McCarthyism BS.....nobody pays me or anyone that can see more than simplistic Good/Evil Black /White didactic optics about this war.
@@jackkessler9876 are you actually going to tell me that the Ukraine isnt the most corrupt country in Europe....30 billion dollars of US aid going missing and unaccounted for in Ukraine and you are actually going to say its not corrupt??
With regards to the number of troops needed to occupy a nation after defeating it, we can refer back to general Shinseke and his disagreement with Rumsfeld. After defeating Iraq, Rumsfeld asserted that most of the troops could return home. In contrast, Shinseki said it would require several times MORE troops to maintain a peace between rival religions and factions. Rumsfeld openly mocked Shinseki. But, Shinseki was proven right, and Rumsfeld (along with Wolfowitz and Cheney) were proven wrong.
Singular example which is only proven true in retrospect.
@@thomassenbart I cited a statement from a well respected general. I have also heard that same statement made by others who are career military, defense analysts, etc. For each war, it could admittedly take more or less. But coming from multiple sources that are in defense careers, I accept that it is a good generalization to set a baseline and then adjust from there.
Whatsaboutism 😂
Let's concentrate on real wars not a world superpower bullying third world countries because they wouldn't accept the dollar for their oil
@@gregparrott Your statement is dead on! Russia is NOT fighting in a Vacuum. It is still knee deep in the Mud of Moldova, Georgia, Chechnya, Amenia, and other Ex-USSR captive countries. If Russia's power drain is too much, they will no longer be afraid of kicking Russia Squatters out of their Countries.
One can think of the Ukrainian belief that Russia won't respect any future deal for very long(or that making such a deal emboldens Russia) as a Preventive motive on Ukraine's side. Which gives even less reason to believe the war will end soon
America england NATO EU and zelinsky started this war .
I find a lot of what you are stating is only what America and England want you to say if reading between the lines you have not stated the full truth that makes it something to be very wary of as half truths are not the truth.
like the west and ukraine did with minsk? its russia that should be skeptical about anything nato the usa, the eu says. it was all lies to buy time tp arm ukraine and move nato closer
With friends like America you don't need enemies! Ukraine has now learned this the hardest of hard ways!
Oh realy. So did Amerika invaded ukraine or was it russia
@@sH-ed5yf No America didn't need to invade, they took control over Ukraine the usual way - Through coup de tat! Ever since 2014 maidan coup Ukraine is on remote control by the US, so under US guidance Ukraine did everything to push Russia to invade.
Could Russia have handled this much better and avoid armed conflict? YES They could have! They made their mistakes, but that doesn't change the fact that the US is the real culprit here!
America is prepping my country to be the next, so don't talk to me what Russia is doing! I can see first hand what America is doing in my country. Puppeteering our government to topple soviet memorials and have my country display an aggressive stance against Russia, like a pincher to a bulldog!
Please do a new one with all the changes that have happened!
Regular soldiers did take part in the Donbass conflict, that is of course denied by the kreml but enough evidence has surfaced that makes it perfectly clear
truth will pro vale
video and pictures will be looked at
truth is there
puuuttiinn has had his day
more it goes on more we find out
Ukraine go go uk
Yeah pretty weird huh?the same as how litteral nazi soldiers are fighting againts the russians and the donbass people but the western media denies it even tho when you look at serbian volunteers they are always showing pics or videos of a captured ukranian soldier whit full body tattos of nazi symbols,crazy bro
Unless, of course, you believe individual Russian troops took their equipment, logistics, and command structure with them in a purely private capacity
That, plus Putin didn't deny shelling Ukrainians from Russian territory with Russian artillery during (I think) battle of Ilovaysk? So Russia was directly involved
@@MrIkaGeo Yes, they destroyed several battalions of Ukraine's best soldiers in this way.
They also had direct battle within Ukraine, during the battle for Debaltseve a salient example
Defenders only ever have something to lose and the invaders set the stakes. There will not be an equilibrium favorable to the defender if offence as a response is out of the table or otherwise impossible.
@williamspaniel what’s the song playing in the video?
Almost in F - Tranquillity by Kevin MacLeod
How insightful this piece is , one year ago now , I watched many clips on RUclips but none give a succinct explanation like this one , even though I'm watching it now 5th October , 2023
you are naive
@@captainahab2019 how maladroit !
Your point at 14:09 "No one else has to die... we can go back to normalcy in Europe". False. It would usher in a new era of accepting and rewarding military aggression. I couldn't imagine a more destabilising action.
Other European and Eurasian nations would try to settle old and new border disputes with wars and an incentivise nationalist movements like the one that built in Russia.
War would become the new normal in Europe and Eurasia.
The whole point of this video is to illustrate why "substantive explanations" like territory are insufficient to explain wars even when it seems like obviously it's a win-win to always negotiate based on balance of power so neither side needs to suffer the costs of going to war. The part you are quoting is the video's example of an outcome that appears rational but due to "bargaining frictions" it's actually impossible to achieve a rational settlement. It's presented from the Ukrainian POV but the exact same logic holds from the Russian POV - if you use some economic function to convert Russian war costs to territory, then it is rational for Russia to compromise on some territory gains to save themselves the equivalent amount in war costs.
The is known as the "bargaining model of war.". IR begins with the (obvious) truth that going to war is inefficient and irrational for both parties because they both incur costs and would have been better of negotiating a settlement that saves them those costs. Yet equally obviously, people obviously start and fight wars all the time, so we need to be able to explain why. This is known as the "inefficiency paradox of war." en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bargaining_model_of_war
@@grymckr starting a war is inefficient/irrational, but going to war to preserve your sovereignty is often the only viable choice. If the choice is to negotiate away territory and/or sovereignty every time your neighbor attacks you eventually he's no longer your neighbor but your ruler.
It also falsely supposes that both parties are tied to a rules-based order. A negotiated settlement based on cost-benefit model doesn't work when one of the sides breaks international agreements at the drop of a fury ushanka hat.
I agree with James. You cannot annex territory by conquest, and you cannot allow dictators to annex territory by conquest; it's appeasement. Russia attacked a country, calling it a war between Ukraine and Russia is dishonest or just false. It's a invasion of conquest by Russia onto Ukraine. Russia needs to stop doing conquest and go back to Russia, Ukraine can only stop doing war when Russia Leaves.
@@lucasdigital
Your "logic" only appears as such to the casual onlooker or deluded HUMAN MIND that has been robbed of its capability - out of lack of humility and as a consequence arguing out of its mental prison cell which provides (false) security based on the "walls" of the mental prison cell, which limit the loose ends it has to consider in its logic while leaving out a MILLION/ BILLION factors based on million HUMAN MINDS acting based on the actions of a MILLION/ BILLION HUMAN MINDS (this comparison is ONLY exemplary in order to make it more "material/comprehensible") - this sort of behaviour is usually called ARROGANCE/ HUBRIS OF THE HUMAN MIND and is the very root of the events being presented and discussed....
THE SYNAGOGUE OF SATAN running amok seems a very fitting description to keep it in the same frame of thought as before...
One could expand above description beyond the referred example but I leave it there at the moment...
An additional friction point I think is how seriously Ukraine can take a Russian peace offer after Budapest and Minsk 1& 2. They would be highly entitled to not belief Russian offers.
@Jasper Percabeth What?
@Jasper Percabeth how?
@Jasper Percabeth You kept avoiding answer the question.
@Jasper Percabeth You would need to be part of the negotiation team to know the truth is as the interpretation of the terms were taken differently. Russia negotiated in bad faith as it claims it is not a party to the dispute and therefore not bound by it's terms. With that view M 1 & 2 were not so broken but evaporated.
It repudiated the whole concept of a negotiated settlement.
In any case you are avoiding the Budapest agreement which was broken by Russia in 2014 very blatantly. How many times have you bought Brooklyn Bridge?
Both Minsk 1 and 2 were broken by Ukraine. German chancellor even admitted that it was never the intention to stick to those agreements but use it to buy time to arm and train Ukraine for the upcoming war. When Ukraine and Russia had a peace agreement again in Budapest Borris Johnson flew over to tell Zelenskyy to not go forward with it. Zelenskyy was also threatened to be hung from a tree by the far right if he did. Soon after that Zelenskyy made it illegal to make a peace treaty with Russia while Putin is in office.
Whether Ukraine trusts Russia or not is immaterial. Mainly because Ukraine lacks the military strength & numbers to invade Russia. The end of the war is when Ukraine & Russia strike a deal to share profits of the oil deposits in-between Russia & Ukraine. Recently in 2023, 5 African presidents visited Ukraine & Russia to voice out their opinions to end the war. No matter how insignificant this was to Russia & Ukraine, the outcome was neither side had solid reasons for negotiations to end the war now. However I love your video, very very very informative unlike the western media with its biased narratives not explaining the causes of the war. I can say you are the best William Spaniel.
Paraphrasing Michael Drozdovsky.
Our main disagreement with the Europeans is on the agrarian issue:
- they want to bury us in our land, and we don’t want them to walk on it.
Before Euromaidan, Russia successfully used political and economic leverage to dissuade Ukraine from signing the E.U. deal. In the months prior to the Vilnius summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin engaged in a trade war with Kyiv, blocking nearly all imports from Ukraine and cutting energy supplies to the country. In turn, this reduced Ukrainian exports by 25 percent and shrank the economy by 1.5 percent.
Ukraine Constitution 1991, disallows foreign military bases after 2017.
According to former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, Ukraine's constitution forbids the country from hosting foreign military bases after 2017. Yanukovych breached the Ukraine Constitution 1991, Article 17.
After 2017, Ukraine's constitution is incompatible with foreign military bases hosting either NATO or CSTO.
In 2018, President Petro Poroshenko's constitution amendment allowed temporary foreign military bases.
*If Yanukovych didn't sign the military base rental extension, Russia would be kicked out of Crimea.*
@@kityacat5419 My point is against Putin's false narrative.
your first sentence should read
"Before Euromaiden, Russia successfully controlled Ukraine"
Putin's message was very clear. Russia or the west. You can't have both. Unfortunately for Putin, Ukraine didn't choose Russia.
Ukraine east shore Russia ab
@@proselytizingorthodoxpente8304 ukraine east chose Russia but USA with puppet Ukrainian government was punishing them for it for 8 years
Strong points in the video. I think one point I am missing is that Ukraine not only has the big "incentive" to fight back because of these bargaining lines you are drawing but also because it is uncertain when Putin has had enough. Even if the war ended today there would still be a potential for Ukraine to become more a part of Nato or EU and Russia would still have a reason to declare war in the future (like what they did in 2014 and now). There is no clear picture of when Putin has had enough, which means that if the war is successful in the Russian's eyes it can open up the possibility for further invasion at a later time. Therefore Ukraine needs to make this very costly for Russia to prevent future invasion. Im i wrong in this?
You’re right. However, Ukraine did not have the means to do so
@@abdielgonzalez7344 they are still at war so it is too early to state. I personally do believe Ukraine will win and that it will be too costly for Russia to make a move like this in the future. But it is not certain. But Ukraine fight for survival and for its people while the Russian side don’t know what they are fighting for so I do still think Ukraine have the upper hand.
@@happymanWTL Ukraine is already getting divided and slowly getting destroyed within - Zelensky has fired the internal affairs minister in one of the regions and the latter has started spilling the beans /though many predict him “falling” out of the window while drunk/, also the ex-president just defeated the country despite the active court case between him and the current president with the pro-Russian Ukrainian oligarch testifying against him while in Zelensky’s captivity. You want more? Let’s live and hear more every coming day
@@janestones323 Souce?
it is a total political reason why Russia entered Ukraine
20:40 interesting fact, those vertical smoke trails are from rockets that got fired before detonation so scientists could study the pressure wave during nuclear testing.
Why can people not think of mutual sharing of basic resources? Why do we need to be violent against each other? Build a united and harmonious world.
Actually, in 2015 there were about 30 000 regular russian troops fighting Ukraine in the Donbas. They just didn't call themselves that, pretending to be just volunteers acting on their own with no support from Putin. I guess that's why they had artillery from the russian military stockpiles, and that's why the battle for Donetsk airport involved russian spetsnaz. Curious how so many people forget all that happened.
@Jasper Percabeth bruh straight answer
@Jasper Percabeth what a just say .it was a straight answer 🙂
Yeah well the Ukrainian troops were slaughtering the Russian minorities in Donbass at the time. So what was Putin supposed to do? Allow the Ukrainians to keep killing innocent civilians? Somehow ppl like you don't want to remember that fact
So by the same metric you agree NATO does the very same since the very beginning?
I just wanted to make same point as @ Noqtis. there was training camps of NATO on west of UA in 2014. And they intervene there even sooner.
I think this video looks too much at this one conflict in isolation and does not expand military implications of the 2014 invasion to the current invasion. In 2014 they invaded and established a "new normal" in Crimea which ended in a ceasefire (sort of). Now after the failure of the grand price of the entire country, they seek to take Donbas and again settle on a ceasefire. Ukraine already knows it cannot settle on losing land because then that will be fortified beyond Ukraine's possibility to take later (so it is never a possible cost to Russia) and then again it will be forced to cede land again, having it fortified, and then cede more, having it fortified, etc.
Russia is well aware that they have the long term resources to repeat this conflict and Ukraine doesn't. Ukraine will have to spend time to rebuild their entire infrastructure and population while Russia can skip right ahead to rebuilding an army.
This entire war already started with the idea that Russia cannot lose land and always stood to gain land.
I would go as far back as the 2004 orange revolution, where Ukrainian protesters blocked the pro russian presidential candidate from declaring victory in a fraudulent election. This demonstrated Ukraine's determination to be self-governing and free of russian influence.
We could also look at the issues around the black sea fleet being based in Sevastopol (Crimea) and the lease agreement and payments for this base on Ukrainian soil.
You are correct. Putin will keep on launching new invasions until he controls the government of Ukraine and most of its territory. Ukraine can not agree to peace without a NATO guarantee to interven if Putin attacks again. Putin will never accept such a term. So the war will continue.
The sooner the west get serious about supporting Ukraine with the equipment it needs to defeat Putin the sooner this will be over.
True but one key thing to rebuttal your last paragraph. Russia absolutely has myriad resources and could easily outlast Ukraine in that aspect. However, does Russia have the economic resources to withstand widespread sanctions from the west? They’re turning themselves into the next North Korea; a pariah state. As I think we’re all aware, North Koreas economy is the equivalent of the steamy shit my dog took before bed tonight. Russia cannot stand an economic war of attrition, with sanctions of this magnitude. They don’t want attrition. They want exactly what you said in your first paragraph. They want UA to let go of the land. Russia has nothing to lose and everything to gain.
Btw, nice analysis my guy. 💪
@@levicastle8731 some interesting points for sure. However, if the war ends Russia will clamor (and I suspect would succeed) in lowering and removing sanctions from the west as their "reward" for the "not as big of a dick as you could've been" award. So their economy would slowly start up again, and I think that they will start to pivot their military imports towards China who is more aligned with Russia and less likely to sanction it.
This kind of change takes years, and cannot be done within this current conflict, it requires a period of licking their wounds after the war. They KNOW they can restart their war much later with these changes, and they would want to have the best starting platform in the third Ukraine conflict.
Lastly, Don't forget that Russia is largely a resource economy, and the people in power get their financial power from that sector. A lot of the sanctions hurt regular Russians, who the government doesn't really care about, just enough to have them enlist and to have them be able to be conscripted.
@@voodoodummie I think you are right but I think Crimea could become a buffer state
@@voodoodummie
The government doesn’t care about regular Russians? Interesting view, though somewhat naive.
Very educative !
nah
Ukraine do have 30% ppl speaking russia as mothertongue.
When the war began, we in finland began to worry, might russia attack us as well. But it made me feel lighter that we only have 1% of population who speaks russia as their main language.
Ukraine can’t afford a settlement as described in the end of this video, as once Russia secured a defensible land bridge to Crimea, it weakens Ukraine economically as it’s mostly cut off from the sea and leaves it especially vulnerable to another invasion down the line. Not to mention it sends the message to other countries that sovereignty is negotiable. Nothing short of complete withdrawal should be accepted for these reasons, especially if we wish to not see more nuclear proliferation as its the only surefire way to avoid being invaded.
Putin👑🙏🇷🇺❤️👍
Hopefully there will be no England and USA economic capabilities to support this war and it will be vack to normal during Soviet with 3 brethern Belrouse ,Russia s and Ukrainian as one
Ukraine can die then😂
Exactly!
The most important thing missing in my opinion is that without first fighting a war, there is no guarantee for any settlement to be respected. New claims can soon after be made.
The cost in reputation and reliability is one russia isn't particularly sensitive to.
The attrition and cost of the this war greatly increase the cost of another one, or threatened one, shortly after a settlement for this is reached.
If ukraine knew that giving up x territory will actually be the end, it would have been much more likely to negotiate.
US and the west has been even worse at keeping to treaties -- you have to work hard to ignore the west's disregard of Minsk or the Baker agreements.
Bullshit, they knew if they only respected Minsk agreements there would be no war. Why did America invest 4 billion dollars into the coup in Ukraine in 2014?
Ukraine has to accept that Crimea and Donbas - two regions where russian speaking ukrainians are the majority - do not want to be part of the Ukraine anymore after their treatment by Kiev since 2014 - and nor will RUssia relinquish their control they fought to get over those 2 regions. Ukraine lost those 2 regions by its stupidity and brutality.
True, Russia is already seen as the international bad guy so you're right, they won't care about repercussions to their repitation.
I guess all we can do is take a page from the american playbook and help the russians enact a regime change. Let's be honest, Putin is an old man... He's likely to keel over any day now.
This video aged like fine wine.
This is a very refreshing analytical geo political/political/economical/psychological analysis of the conflict. I appreciate this upload and support such line of inquiry.
I think one possible game theoretic reason you missed is dynamic inconsistency. If you're invaded then reaching a negotiated settlement with the invader might the lowest cost option for you once an invasion begins. However, what if you instead take the attitude that when invaded you're going to always fight to the bitter end and cause as much damage as possible to the invader regardless of the cost to yourself? If you take that kind of "irrational" position and credibly signal that to would-be invaders then they might rationally decide that invading you is not worth it after all and thus you avoid invasions entirely. However, if you still get invaded then the only way to really signal your "irrational" intention is to fight to the bitter end even though it seems more costly.
The Afghanistan model since the year 1100AD. If you consider Ukraine and the use of scorched earth in the past it is not implausible.
i like to shorten this one up to the "deranged man" problem, its certainly an interesting look at the war overall.
@@killingtimeitself I think that would be a bit misleading term.
@@seneca983 definitely a silly term, fortunately for everyone im not a profressional in the field lol
Steven Pinker talks about this sort of thing in his book "The Better Angels of Our Nature". Spaniel is correct in his analysis of why the war should have been avoided, but I believe what you are talking about is vitally important in Ukraine's case. In "On The Origins of War" by Donald Kagan, he talks about how important it is to make sure that victory is unambiguous, so that the defeated aggressor nation doesn't feel like it's worth invading again in a few years (the most obvious case of failure in this regard being the Versailles Treaty after WW1). In fact, the re-occurrence of essentially the same war a few years later is basically what his book is about , and there are MANY cases of this throughout history. That said, if Russia is able to get out of this mess with more than they had when they entered it, I think the conclusion that Putin will reach is obvious to even the most naive child. Ukraine, in a very real sense, is not just fighting for its own survival, but for the future peace and freedom of the entire world.
this whole thing reminds me of this king in his dying years who wanted too take a kingdom and won but they quickly gave it back because they did not see the value in keeping it.
what was it called?
Which king?
@@shivanshna7618 i cannot remember the name exactly but I'm trying too find him again its been a few months since I've seen them
@@agenteiegaming ok thanks
Pretty sure he's referring to King Henry VIII who took somewhere in France in his final years?
William! You do an absolutely masterful job of analyzing this war. Congratulations!
I remember a series put together after WW II when tv came about that my mother and I listened to weekly that we thoroughly enjoyed called “Victory at Sea”. It had wonderful music written to go with the narrative . I think it won some awards but as young teen I wasn’t into awards. I think your work is even better! Don’t even think yours needs music!
How embarrassing. Russia's efforts to conceal their hand in all of this from the start fooled him and you.
The Three to One rule is not an advantage in manpower, but an advantage in combat power. In 2003 the United States led coalition were outnumbered by the Iraqi Army more than three to one and the Iraqis were defending.
Thank you. A few initial additions/expansions..
1. The “Cuba scenario ”.. Perception by some Russians that USA / NATO MISSILE placements were an unacceptable threat. Fuelled by propaganda, misunderstanding and maybe some truth. The Mearsheimer arguments AFAIU.
2. Food resources, UA as breadbasket
3. Megalomaniacal tendencies as a leader gains confidence with years in power. Not quite covered by your irrationality chapter.
Apologies if those were covered and I missed them.
Could you do a video on RU's intelligence failures prior to the war, and how that may have affected their rational for the war? The amount of fired and jailed intelligence officers (including top officials) suggests this may be a very influential factor.
Thanks!
Good idea!!
Better one is add the ones made by CIA.
No, it's not necessary, it's enough ask it to Julian Assange.
Oh, hurry up before the US kill him!
I think Putin wouldn't attack if he knew it would fail this badly
But he can't retreat either now
Basically he cornered himself
@@ZoragRingael It's not the american Colonel Douglas Mcgregor's opinion.
@@angelaantonova743 yeap, but I'm sure it would be around these lines
btw some analysts saying Russia wouldn't invade Ukraine, were pointing out that Putin wouldn't do such risky thing
I guess some people convinced Putin there was no risk
True, Putin apparently fired a bunch of Brass hats but remember the Russian Federation has not been at war like the US and NATO for three decades. They just didn't have the experience; plus, Russia doesn't tolerate failure like the West does. It fires dummies. Not like the United States who continues to promote, both in the civilian world as well as military, incompetence. Example: How many US officers and bureaucrats lost their job at the last fuckup Afghanistan? None.
2013 Ukraine discovers a huge oil field under Donbas.
2014 Russia muscles in to take it.
If it is about anything else, then a settlement would give the oil field to Ukraine.
Hesekiel 38:Ennustus Googile
1 Ja mulle tuli Issanda sõna; ta ütles:
2 „Inimesepoeg, pööra oma pale Googi poole Maagoogi maal; ta
on Meseki ja Tubali vürst, ja kuuluta temale prohvetlikult
3 ning ütle: Nõnda ütleb Issand Jumal: Vaata, ma tulen sulle
kallale, Goog, Meseki ja Tubali vürst.
4 Ma talutan sind ringi ja panen haagid su lõuapäradesse; ma
toon välja sinu ja kogu su sõjaväe, hobused ja ratsanikud, kõik
toredasti riietatud, suurte ja väikeste kilpidega suure jõugu,
kes kõik on mõõga käsitsejad.
5 Pärsia, Etioopia ja Puut on koos nendega, neil kõigil on
kilbid ja kiivrid;
6 Gomer ja kõik ta jõugud; Toogarma sugu kõige kaugemast
põhjast ja kõik ta jõugud - paljud rahvad on koos sinuga.
7 Ole valmis ja varusta ennast, sina ja kogu su väehulk, kes on
kogunenud su juurde, ja ole neile juhiks!
8 Paljude päevade pärast kutsutakse sind, aastate möödudes
pead sa tulema maale, mis mõõga järelt on taastatud, rahva
juurde, kes on kogutud paljude rahvaste seast Iisraeli mägedele,
mis olid kaua laastatud; see rahvas on ära toodud
rahvaste seast ja nad kõik elavad julgesti.
9 Siis sa tõused, tuled nagu maru, oled nagu pilv, mis katab
maad, sina ja kõik su väehulgad, ja paljud rahvad koos sinuga.
10 Nõnda ütleb Issand Jumal: Sel päeval tõuseb sul midagi
südamesse ja sa pead kurja nõu
11 ning ütled: „Ma lähen üles lahtise maa kallale; ma tulen
nende rahulike kallale, kes elavad julgesti - nad kõik elavad
müürita ja neil ei ole riive ega uksi -,
12 et saada saaki ja riisuda, mis on riisuda, et pöörata oma
kätt taasasustatud varemete vastu ja rahva vastu, kes on kogutud
paganate seast, kes on soetanud karja ja varandust, kes elavad
maa südames.”
13 Seeba ja Dedan ning Tarsise kaupmehed ja kõik ta
kaubitsejad küsivad sinult: „Kas tuled saaki saama? Kas oled
kogunud oma jõugud riisuma, mis on riisuda, ära viima hõbedat ja
kulda, võtma karja ja varandust, saama suurt saaki?”
14 Seepärast kuuluta prohvetlikult, inimesepoeg, ja ütle
Googile: Nõnda ütleb Issand Jumal: Eks ole? Sel päeval, kui mu
Iisraeli rahvas elab julgesti, hakkad sa liikuma
15 ja tuled oma asukohast, kõige kaugemast põhjast, sina ja
koos sinuga paljud rahvad, kes kõik ratsutavad hobustel - suur
väehulk, rohkearvuline sõjavägi.
16 Sa tõused mu Iisraeli rahva vastu nagu pilv, et katta
maad; see sünnib viimseil päevil: siis ma toon su oma maa
kallale, et paganad võiksid tundma õppida mind, kui ma nende
silme ees näitan oma pühadust sinu kaudu, Goog.
17 Nõnda ütleb Issand Jumal: Eks see ole sina, kellest ma
rääkisin muistseil päevil oma sulaste, Iisraeli prohvetite läbi,
kes sel ajal kuulutasid aastast aastasse, et ma toon sind nende
kallale?
18 Aga sel päeval - päeval, kui Goog tuleb Iisraeli maa
kallale, ütleb Issand Jumal, tõuseb mu vihaleek.
19 Oma raevus ja vihatules ma räägin: Tõesti, sel päeval on
suur maavärisemine Iisraeli maal.
20 Ja minu ees värisevad kalad meres ja linnud taeva all ja
metsloomad ja kõik roomajad, kes maa peal roomavad, ja kõik
inimesed, kes on maapinnal; ja mäed kistakse maha ning
kitsasteed varisevad kokku, ja kõik müürid langevad maa peale.
21 Ja ma kutsun mõõga tema vastu kõigi oma mägede peale,
ütleb Issand Jumal: ühe mõõk on teise vastu.
22 Ma käin temaga kohut katku ja vere abil; ja ma lasen
sadada vihmavalinguid ja raheteri, tuld ja väävlit tema ja ta
jõukude peale ja nende paljude rahvaste peale, kes on koos
temaga.
23 Nõnda näitan ma oma suurust ja pühadust ning teen ennast
tuttavaks paljude paganate silme ees. Ja nad saavad tunda, et
mina olen Issand.
Don’t forget that after 2014, Ukraine did a modest build up but didn’t have as much international full support and weaponization as they see now. That could swing the balance back to their original borders if supplied and trained appropriately.
They got the weapons and support during 2015 Minsk "peace" negotiations as cover up to buy some time.
English bulls ! You sure won't rest till there is nothing left to be called Ukraine
Yeah weil, looks like the "west" is not as much into war, than Russia would like the world to believe..
Original border?! What original border ?! Ukraine îs a made-up country,from ukrainian,russian,polish,romanian,moldovan and hungarian territories..A Monster of Frankenstein,Ukraine..
Ukraine îs a Monster of Frankenstein.
This video illustrates the exact way of thinking that led the western "analysts" to conclude that Ukraine would fall in a matter of days or weeks after the full scale invasion. It misses a key part or the equation that has rendered all the pre-war "analysis" absolutely useless. That is the will of the general population of Ukraine to fight to defend their country. In my opinion, it demonstrates a lack of understanding of the complex mentality of both nations and all the underlying historical grudges and misstrust between them.
You're forgetting to limacho and sumadon.
"it is good for ukraine if there was peace"
they dont give a flying about casualties, equipment losses or costs. Perun makes a better point of this. He refers to this as the Ukrainian patriotic war. they love thier country, and will fight and die for it because there is fighting and dying to be done for it.
that, and they HATE russia like the Polish does. Spite will keep them fighting long after common sense would say stop.
So after more than a year of war and still fighting now, will there be any amendments on the causes of the war that you see now or no change on your interpretations of the causes of war as before ?
I like this video,,it's a very honest take on it indeed!👍✌❤
Well, you seem to have gotten one think spot on. "If Russia were worried about the long-term capacity of Ukraine, one would expect a more general campaign focused on destroying more Ukrainian infrastructure."
They've been trying. Ukraine has air defenses and a relatively large territory.
Also they do not want to build it again
That video just serves one purpose To demonstrate that people who view the world through the lens of economic theory and game theory are utterly lost when it comes to wars. According to such theories back in the early 20th century, a big war between big powers was impossible, because it would destroy the foundation for its existence. Despite of that, WW I and later WW II happened. That is because states often operate in catories of military geopolitics and political prestige and status.
If Russia can´t impose its will on Ukraine, its status and prestige as big power goes down the drain, with severe repercussions for its network of alliances and confrontations with adversaries. If Ukraine just gives in to some Russian demands, radical politicians will arise, citing the government of cowardice and demanding a rollback, while NATO members would feel betrayed by their proxy Ukraine (especially as the Russian main goal is the neutralization of Ukraine for good!) and stop military and financial aid.
Converting everything into monetary value when it comes to problem solving outside of economics is a stupid idea, and it doesn´t become better just because a lot of people fall for it and earn a livelyhood from it.
It is not only "Political Prestige" or the absurd fact of "Imposing Wills" on Ukraine. NATO does not feel "Betrayed" by Ukraine, because Ukraine is NOT part of NATO yet. In fact, Ukraine does not have the support of NATO, beyond the sale of arms. Do you want to know why Russia has not been removed from the UN? Or WHY don't send fighter jets against Russia? Cuz If anything, IF the US really wanted to resolve the crisis in Ukraine, the US would break up with NATO forever. In 1991, when the USSR collapsed, the Russians dissolved the Warsaw Pact. However, NATO was not dissolved. It was the opposite. NATO grew in power, in territorial extension and in the number of allied countries. (And NOT precisely "Allied Countries", but rather "Countries Subordinate to the will of the US", which is the correct name). In this war Mr. Putin is DEFENDING his Homeland. Mr. Putin is fighting today against only ONE Country (Ukraine), cuz if he doesn't fight Ukraine today, then tomorrow he will have to fight against 30 countries that make up NATO. At the end of WWII, NATO had 8 allied countries. During the height of the Cold War, NATO already had 14 countries in total. Today, when the USSR and Communism no longer exists, there are 30. Just in case we all forgot. Mr. Zelensky was a television Comedian who won the Presidency of Ukraine thanks to Mr. Petro Poroshenko (this one of great academic and political merit), who was ridiculed for the Parodies that Mr. Zelensky made on TV. And why didn't Mr. Poroshenko stop these taunts and slanders against him? Answer: Cuz Mr. Poroshenko did not want to "Affect" the Freedom of Expression in Ukraine, and cuz Mr. Poroshenko never thought that a Comedian without experience and without political stature (without political or physical stature), could beat him in a vote. (The same case with Hillary/Trump. And for that same reason, Mr. Zelensky sent the two opposition leaders to jail and controlled Ukrainian TV militarily, with the support of the US). Well... Already as President, Mr. Zelensky dazzled him by the proposals of the International Monetary Fund (Headquarters in Washington, DC), in which he would be filled with money if he agreed to join NATO, it was easy for him to challenge the power of Russia. Today Mr. Zelensky is ALONE and friendless. Mr. Zelensky faces Mr. Putin in absolute solitude. What does Mr. Putin want? Answer: Russia cannot allow a NATO Military Base on its immediate border. What does the United States want? Answer: The US has almost 800 Military Bases spread all over the world, and they need another 800 more Bases, to subsume Russia. That is what the US wants: Subsume Russia. But... BUT, the US will not enter a war to defend Mr. Zelensky, cuz China would side with Russia. End of history and possibly end of the United States. Governing a country is serious business. A country cannot be Governed by a TV Comedian. Finally, for the US the issue of its National Security is something non-negotiable. (The Pentagon is PARANOID on this point). However, this same Right to Defend Itself, US is denied to Russia and it is also denied to all the countries of the world. No one in the world can pose a threat to the US, but in reality, the US is a real threat to everyone. Now, please read the words of Mr. Vladimir Putin: “Russia has always advocated for the creation of a system of equal and indivisible Security. A system that is vital for the entire world community. In December last year (in 2019), we proposed to conclude an agreement on Security Guarantees. Russia called on the West to an honest dialogue to search for reasonable compromise solutions. To take into account each other's interests (US-Europe/Russia). All in vain. The NATO/US countries did not want to hear us, which means that in fact they had completely different plans from the beginning… And we saw it”.
If you watched the video, you would know most of the incentives for war he listed weren't monetary. Not sure what you are aiming at.
Well said
I am agree 100%
economy was a factor in all of those though.
That's very unique Ideology ever.
This is an interesting video, but I am surprised there was no mention of the essay that Putin himself wrote, which clearly explains his personal beliefs and the way he views the national borders and the history of the world. It's like ignoring Mein Kampf when talking about Hitler.
3:19 Regular Russian soldiers have been involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict from day one. It was unmarked Russian soldiers that rolled into Ukraine. When the Ukrainians counter-attacked the separatists and were knocking on Donetsk's doorstep it was the Russian Army that drove them back, not mercenaries or private volunteers. This was conclusively proven by Simon Ostrovsky, for example, following a trail of clues left on social media by a Russian soldier from Siberia.
I've studied war for 50 years, and the only thing I know about it for sure, is you rarely can get a good perspective on a war while hostilities are on-going. For most of the conflict the best most observers can do is keep score.
Yup, even though this video seemingly supports Ukraine, it has this 'not everything is clearly black & white' flavor
@@robertmaybeth3434 if a private military corp is funded by the government, its no longer 'private'
Exactly
Indeed, I didn't think that the "little green men" were still a contentious subject. Russian soldiers, without identifying markings, crossed the border and bolstered local separatist militias.
Hopefully no settlement is made. Land for peace never works. Always a bad idea. It’s just a matter of whether they’d ever be able to push them back. It wouldn’t surprise me if in the end there is a ceasefire and the war just ends without ever actually ending like in Korea. To quote Reagan “If you want peace you can have it right now, surrender.”
I don't remember Reagan surrendering. Though, if it's about Vietnam, Russia won't do it, unless it suffers heavy economic and military loses
@@zimguy8245 well, won't work with Russia, since any cease fire will be used for regrouping and preparing for new attack / war
Easy for you to say coz your not on the firing line of the Russian artilleries and rockets.
@@giacomogiacomo1194 That's not true
Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014. Then there was cease fire.
What did Russia do next? Right, invaded Ukraine again in 2022
Not to mention they were firing from time to time on Ukrainian positions even during cease fire
Also Putin stated few times that Ukraine is artificial country and shouldn't exist
Meaning their plan is to conquer all of Ukraine
If the war is negotiated to an end, the hatred will remain, people who have lost homes and family members to the attack will not soon forgive the Russians, particularly if they hold onto Ukrainian territory. Maybe they don't care much about the Russian speaking minorities, but when you lose a home or family members to the Russian invasion, that makes one less inclined to see the Russian point of view.
Zelenskyy recently said in an interview that to end the war with anything other than total Ukranian victory would be a defeat.
I have to admit, his argument is very compelling. Putin would say the same thing if the roles were reversed. Or not. He'd probably have accepted the evacuation offer when the war started...
Strange...
Victor Cox is the spitting image of Victor Garber.
Excellent podcast. Only thing ignore the role of hatred which can propel human endurance, atrocities and impact the lines of rationality. Also, underplays 'taking a break' (to resupply, rearm etc) as a mode which may well change the balance of power/perceived balance of power.
Cree vet V6
You are correct that Russian's hatred for Ukrainians has had an effect on both sides. I keep wondering how a population could care so little about human lives, whether their own or others. Is it only due to the effects of propaganda, or is there something more?
This is a way of looking at the cost benefit analysis I hadn’t really thought of before, it’s pretty cool! One thing I think might need to be considered is that both sides could have a “cost of surrender” that acts in the opposite direction as the cost of war. For Russia, surrender makes Putin look foolish and weak, and for the Ukraine, surrender shows that this type of offensive works, and increases the likelihood of them doing something like it again in the future to try and push further once they are established in the new area.
Who cares how Putin feels at this point? There is no off ramp anymore for this brutal dictator.
I think that PUtin's costs of war/surrender and Russia's costs of war/surrender should not be conflated. So, embarrassment to Putin is not necessarily a cost of surrender for Russia.
This has to be looked at like a game of chess. If Ukraine gives up even 1 inch of territory taken since the resumption of Hostilities they lose. So how do we end the conflict without that happening? Russian agents are working the internet and RUclips all the time trying to convince people that Ukraine should be willing to give up territory for peace. Russia is looking a little like it did before the Russian revolution. They are having frequent anti war protests. If NATO holds strong in its support of Ukraine Russia at some point in time will take care of Putin in its own way.
Ah, so Russia is liberating any bits of Europe that takes its fancy and will tell us that if we do not let them do it they will blow us away or have I missed something? How inconvenient that Ukraine is putting up resistance. And when Russia has had a breather and rebuilt its army we can start all over again.
To make an accurate cost benefit analysis you have to know the price of the your resources you will lose! For the Russians it is calculable, for Ukraine what is the going rate for freedom? I can tell you whatever it is Ukrainians are willing to pay it! My wife is from Kyiv, Ukraine, she grew up under Soviet rule, the Ukrainian people will never accept that again they will fight with rocks if they have to! SLAVA UKRAINI!
I really enjoyed this video! Thank you 😊 also, what is the beautiful piano song playing?
yeah it was sooooo soothing I have been trying to find out since so long....
But I have found it, it is Almost in F - Tranquillity by Kevin MacLeod
@@Grand-Rose omg thank you so much for finding it!! 😱😱😱🥹🥹🥹
@@dtf-productions6134 Lol dw about it it is in the description.......
@@Grand-Rose ohhhh lmaooo 😄😆
Your explanation is right and true.
My understanding is that Putin is stepping down and does not want his successor (the defense minister) to be left with the mess that was the war since 2014. He saw Biden in power and wanted to act before the republicans took the house and would be expected to be more hawkish, so this was timing. But the real reason is that he either wins and accepts the bad man role, handing over while the west breaths a sigh of relief or he stalls and his successor has room to negotiate with some resentment, but not nearly as much as Putin.
I appreciate your analysis. I learned several things that I will take with me to other problems, thank you for posting. As this is my the second video analysis that I've seen from you that I've really enjoyed, I subscribed from this video as well. Thank you.
Honestly, you took side on this matter. I am writing you from U,S. One of the key elements you did not take seriously is that Russia was like an animal having its back against the wall. NATO coming closer, all the way to its border. Ukraine wanted that. Do you think U.S was ok with Russia nuclear subs in Cuba? Ukraine and its western allies (France and Germany) co-signers of Mink peace admitted they played with Russia. Ukraine and its western allies (Europe) are suffering more from self inflicting sanctions than Russia. This war could have been avoided if security guarantee requested by Russia were honored and Ukraine and western allies were sincere in signing the Mink deal
Clima troppo freddo: naturale motivo di "uscire"...-20;-70
"Irriationality" very, very often is part of miscalculation. Because Putin was able to circumvent the rules of the game so successfully in the post-Soviet Russia to acquire quasi-dictator status, like other personality cult achievers he believed he was also capable of circumventing any international "rule" that prevented him from reaching his irrational ideas in ”On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians“ and the reconstruction of the Cold War border sphere of Russian influence.
There is no plan to reconstruction any old Russian borders and if there would be, he wouldn't start with fucking Ukraine. Dude, stop consuming so much war propaganda. It's not good for your logical thinking abilities.
4:54 One of the reasons why Crimea was transferred to Ukraine was that it received water from Kahovka reservoir which was in Ukrainian SSR, and USSR government wanted both to be in one republic for optimization
Ukraine built the North-Crimean canal and irrigated Crimea, flooding huge areas of agriculturally rich populated UKRAINIAN areas AFTER Crimea was transferred to Ukraine. At that point Crimea was in horrible state: without any irrigation, very little electricity, with basically no agriculture after deportation of Crimean Tatars and replacing them with Russians who could not adjust to the climate. Crimea was a burden for Ukraine, that had to bring Crimea to a descent state with Ukrainian republican budget and losing territories to russia "in exchange". ruSSian propaganda ravings about Crimea being Khrushchev's present to Ukraine are just propaganda lies as Khrushchev had no power in this decision: this was stalin's plan, fulfilled after his death by his "comrades", whole signatures (and not Khruschev's) are on both documents legalizing the transfer.
@@natastudyN All true but going forward there will only be (I am afraid) a small Ukranian reservation, land locked, with borders controlled by Russia, like Israel controls Ghaza imports. Please read about founding of OdeSSa, and other cities. You can also read fiction, which though tells much about the country, White Guard by Bulgakov
@@paruhblgen4222 hahaha you know NOTHING about my country. And also cited the Ukrainophobe Bulgakov as an example, what a shame. Do you know who else wrote about Kyiv at that time? Pidmohylnyi and Domontovych. Did you read them?
One day people will be imprisoned for public Ukrainophobia, it will become as disgusting as anti-Semitism.
And the Russians are lying about some lands there, let them give us the ethnic eastern Slobozhanshchyna and the Kuban region.
The territory of Ukraine was supposed to be 700,000+ km, but the Bolsheviks reduced it.
By the way, YOU please read about well known since 14 century city Cacybei, which was RENAMED as OdeSa.
And no one will conquer Ukraine, unskill Russians can only zerg-rush style, which will end with and of human meat, and even with the occupation there will be a guerrilla war for decades, weak jackals have no chance, Ukrainians have always fought more skillfully and bravely, we simply did not have enough international support. Now it is, so you can urinate on Putin's portrait. ^_^
@@natastudyN Plain lie. USSR build North-Crimean canal, we have documents what confirm one simple thing: Ukraine Respublic leaders admit what they can't build such canal alone, so USSR create huge company and people all around country gather together to build canal from 1961 to 1971. While Ukrainian SSR struggle to build canal alone in 1957-1961 until they give up and ask for help. North-Crimean canal have NOTHING with Ukraine after 1991, it will joint-efforts project
Great video as usual
If Leaders were more concerned about THE PEOPLE who inhabit land masses; it would not be a war of PRIDE & PREJUDICES.
Fascinating analysis. A lot has happened since you posted this.
I look forward to what you're working on now - and your book.
It's a fascinating analysis, but leaves way too much of history out of it. In 1996 Ukraine turned over to Russia all of their nuclear weapons in an agreement that Russia would never invade Ukraine. Why doesn't Russia return those nuclear weapons now? It's easy to attack a country after you purposely made it weak before.
In fact that "a lot has happened since" this was posted is a tribute to the clarity and openness of this professional analysis... But YES, a lot has happened that dramatically shifted options on the ground in Ukraine...jt
I'm not convinced that William Spaniel can read Putin's mind - especially on the assumption that Putin might be 'crazy' ... that's not convincing at all - not even scientific nor academic ... William Spaniel speaks like a quack !
@@mikewilson2332 He speaks like a knowledgable and logical person with well-reasoned opinions, unlike the troll with a no-content fake account to whom I am replying.
only 1 reason about this war: Russia invaded a sovereign country. Your reason for this war are Putin's unending story of propaganda of his own fear & greed. But now he is acting & invading like Hitler for the last 22 years as Russian dictator.
There is another factor which does not explain why a particular war began, but may give us an idea of whether or not that war will be over quickly: the history of the combatants both with each-other, and with third parties.
In this case, there is one third party in particular which can give us a good idea of the Ukrainian perspective of the war: Poland, especially its long and bloody history with Russia.
At its greatest extent the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth covered Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, most of modern day Poland and Ukraine, about half of Estonia, and parts of Russia and Moldova. This was Poland's golden age, and coincided with when Muscovy was transforming itself into imperial Russia. Over the next several centuries the Russians, Germans, and Austro-Hungarians sliced away at Poland in a series of wars until there was literally nothing left - and most of the former state lay in Russia. Poland was liberated following the First World War, sliced and diced again by the Germans and Russians in the opening months of the Second, then spent almost half a century as a Russian puppet state.
This situation between Ukraine and Russia has already taken on a similar dynamic: Russia has been slicing off chunks of Ukraine - first Crimea, then the Donbas, and now Zaporizhzhia and Kherson - rather than taking it all in one go. This similarity to what was done to Poland means Kyiv cannot accept any resolution that results in Ukrainian territory being ceded to Russia. The only line on the map Kyiv can afford to accept is the current internationally-recognised border of Ukraine.
Five months ago when this video was first posted that outcome looked improbable. Right now (December 2023) it is looking increasingly possible.
This war is a father who fights with his son who is growing and is fighting with his father
Basically a fight between a father and a son
Clause 1 of the Minsk agreements read: "An immediate and comprehensive ceasefire in certain areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine and its strict implementation, starting from 00:00 (Kyiv time) on February 15, 2015."
But Ukraine did not comply with this clause and continued to bomb the DNR and LNR.
Heads of the DPR Denis Pushilin and LPR Leonid Pasechnik appealed to Russian President Vladimir Putin with a request to assist in repelling aggression from the Armed Forces of Ukraine in order to avoid civilian casualties and prevent a humanitarian catastrophe.
The address of the leader of the LPR states that “Kyiv continues to build up its military presence on the line of contact, while receiving comprehensive support, including military support, from the United States and other Western states. The Kiev regime is focused on the forceful solution of the conflict.” “Given the foregoing, the heads of the two republics, in connection with the current situation, as well as in order to prevent civilian casualties and a humanitarian catastrophe, on the basis of Articles 3 and 4 of the treaties on friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance between the Russian Federation and the republics, ask the President of Russia to assist in repelling aggression of the armed forces and formations of Ukraine"
Article 4 of the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance between the Russian Federation and the Donetsk People's Republic states: "The Contracting Parties will jointly take all measures available to them to eliminate the threat to the peace, violation of the peace, as well as to counter acts of aggression against them by any state or groups of states and to provide each other with necessary assistance, including military assistance, in the exercise of the right to individual or collective self-defence in accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter."
Thus, Russia launched a special military operation for the purpose of collective self-defense in accordance with Article 4 of the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance between the Russian Federation and the Donetsk People's Republic.
I'm getting three main lessons from this, which you have not stated:
1) If you want peace, you must have leadership with a good understanding of war.
2) If you want success for your nation, you must have a strong war fighting capability in order to negotiate a favorable peace, even in the absence of war.
3) You have left unanalyzed the iterated strategy of repeatedly threatening war.
4) without the US the war would not have been startet. Europa is under US Dominanz and has to do what they command...!!!!!!
He obviously hasn’t been keeping up to date for the last 4yrs.
very correct observations. Especially for points no2 and 3 worth to see the next upcoming crisis between Greece and Turkey
@@rstefan1821 We're trying to strongarm Turkey into caving on letting Finland and Sweden into NATO. It's so obvious.
@@GaneshGunaji i totally understand and with the 28the june meeting Tucker got all wanted. However, keep in mind that Turkey goes always with who provides more. Turkey has decades now a totally different agenda...expansion of their sea borderline meaning Greece has to loose the islands of east aegean sea.
2nd. Expansion and absolutely ambulation of kurds in iraq and Syrian territories.
In both cases usa needs greece and kurds and they are close allys. So if turkey opens a conflict ( direct proclamation of war with Greecece through a prestaged episode,hence for 4 years the greek army is kept in 85% readines OR invasion to syrian kurds -they do the job in keeping ISIS in check,so usa donot need to be directly involved-area which now have constitutional autonomy from syria) NATO and uncle biden have to choose sides.
Historically, there are zero agreements that have been honored by Russia and they are not likely to start now.
The same can be said about Europe and the US.
@@TheRadFactor add Ukraine. Russia has always honored way more. Its eastern men mentality. Handshake is more worth than paper. Thats how Russia and US agreed no more steps east with NATO. With a handshake. Obviously the US didnt care about a handshake. US politicians are wiesel, snakes, rats.
@@TheRadFactor Ohh, how so?.
@@Konser_konge Iran, Cuba, Libya and Afghanistan.
@@pzhda yeah that doesnt count. What agreements did thoose countires make with European countireand the US taht were broken?.
agreed they were treated like shit, but they are not exactly blameless are they.
You got a snort at "declared themselves Viktor". Take your upvote.
Maybe. It seems there are things the public are not aware of, and that shapes interpretation.
i think the biggest reason is putins whole imperialistic view, if you watch documenteries about his previous life, he was very known to talk about how russia was stupid for letting the berli wall fall, and he was butt hurt for the whole USSR falling apart
He never was imperialistic. People only started saying that after Crimea in 14. Putin has said anyone who doesn't miss the Soviet Union has no heart but anyone who wants to bring it back has no brain. Ukraine was always the red line ... Not just for Putin. All the way back to Gorbachev Russia said Ukraine was the reddest of lines concerning western expansion
@@checkmate79 "Ukraine was the reddest of lines concerning western expansion"?? Which country has attacked the countries around it? NATO has not attacked anyone. I see no fault in Ukraine defending itself against a known and proven danger which is Putin. Putin made a BIG mistake attacking all of Ukraine. He united NATO and proved to everyone in the world and especially Ukraine, that he can not be trusted and will not be satisfied until he takes over all of Ukraine and then other Ex Soviet Union countries. His rocket attacks on civilian targets and his troops mass murdering of civilians have hardened Ukraine's resolve that they must win the war. Until they do, they will never be safe from Russian aggression. Since, the U.S. is honoring its commitment to come to Ukraine's aid for their agreement to give up their nuclear weapons, Ukraine will fight until Russia is defeated on the battle field and they have reclaimed the territories Russia illegally annexed. This is almost November and things have certainly changed in Ukraine's favor. There will be no compromise based on Ukraine giving Russia any of their land.
@@checkmate79 When you are the president for life of an empire like Russia then imperialism is baked into the cake.
The reason is America putting an existential threat to Russia in Ukraine, russia is forced into the war
@@ubroc towards Romania and Bulgaria? Great regress for Ukraine.. existential threat is nato with its rockets who invested billions into the coup in 2014
You say that there was suspicion of Russia funding the DPR or LPR, when they were actually founded directly as a result of Russian volunteers (soldiers) and Russian FSB agents invading Eastern Ukraine in 2014 and taking control of various cities. Igor Girkin, the FSB agent who led the insurrection on behalf of the Russian government, boasted about it saying "if our unit had not crossed the border, everything would have ended as it did in Kharkiv and in Odesa". There was zero actual popular pro Russian movements in Eastern Ukraine. Their protests were, at their max, numbered in the few thousands in cities of nearly a million. In contrast, the Euromaiden protest in Kyiv alone had 1 million protesters in a city of 4.5 million.
The entire conflict was started by Russia. They directly invaded Ukraine to create a puppet government, funded the puppet government, and then intervened even more when said puppet government was nearly defeated and pushed directly to the Russian border.
There are other counties with 2 different populations, no hostility betwen them and most peoiple are bi-lingual and do their military service together.
Wow. You couldn't be more wrong. This conflict started when the US armed and funded the right sector in Ukraine who then went on to massacre people in maiden Square. They then burned specifically Russian speakers in the odessa trade union building.
@@TheRatlord74 Were the 1 million protesters in Kyiv alone all Right Sector members armed with the (checks notes) bats, signs, and the occasional air rifle, all funded by America? Is that the best America could provide?
How was it a massacre? Pro Russian soldiers gunned down protesters with machine guns and sniper rifles. 9x more Maidan protesters died than anti Maidan counter protesters died.
Why do you Putin simps grasp onto Ukrainians that speak Russian like a mother to their baby? It's a language. Speaking Russian doesn't instantly make you pro Russian, it goes no further than what people around you speak. The only reason Russian is spoken more in Eastern Ukraine is because of the genocide targeted at Ukrainians in the 30s, with Russians colonizing the Ukrainian lands.
Also I love how you mention the Odessa fire when it occurred nearly a month after Russia invaded Eastern Ukraine to create the DPR, and about 2.5 months after Russia invaded Crimea.
@@ranjaschildt9966 If one of the population is Russian you must forget your mother tongue . Otherwise Siberia or dead by bullet or through starvation as it happened in Ukraine ,Crimea many times. The dead and exiled are substituted by loyal colonists.
@@carlustin4034for real russians are one of the only people who would force people in other countries to speak russian even though they are a minority
This war is about the old rivalry between East and West
One of the fundamental claims of communist Russia, was that the west was "decadent". The accusation, if you are a government is one that accuses it of not acheiving its required object of protecting its people, in many ways.. Such an accusation has to be refuted and proved wrong. Other wise, the people will rise up and overthrow them. Those who could not, in some places, were overthrown. The question of decadence is a major issue in philosophy, because a large part of it is concerned with they best way of acting in our own interest.
There are many complaints from people living in the east and west, about their government administration and those who operate in it. For example, currupt politicians , Aldermen/ women, judges, police and so on.. There is clearly a personnel problem within these systems. It becomes evident when we look into the back grounds of those who took up the positions and how they got there.
A key issue is whether international boundaries can be redrawn and conquored territories incorporated into existing countries. In other words can country A do a land grab against coutnry B. Saddam Hussein's grab of Kuwait was popular with Iraqiis at first, but the larger world said no, to the disappearance of Kuwait. So any negotiations between Russia and Ukraine must reflect the reality that Russia directly taking Ukrainian territory will lead to the overthrow of the global order, and countries in Africa - or anywhere else for that matter - could legitimally argue hey if Russia can redraw borders that they don't like then so can we, we will unite based on historical tribal and ethnic lines and toss these stupid borders imposed by our former European masters.
How many African countries have nuclear war head to deter foreign interventions from US , China or Russia.
@@yam2050 Ghadaffi gave up his nuclear program, and as his son Sayid said "other countries will draw the obvious lesson, no nukes = regime change"
Energy and personal benefits. The oil and natural gas under the Donbas and Black Sea coupled with Putin's making money off Gazprom, etc.
What I love about this all, is that this helps prove the validity of some arguments and disprove the validity of others.
You do realize NATO and US set this precedence when they bomb belgrade and invade Serbia a Russian ally state then carved up Kosovo
The absence of US role in your analysis betrays its limitations.
Not a very good analysis a lot of things missed out neo nazi s supported and trained by nato america and europe nato exercises this time last year in ukraine on the russian border to antagonize the russians ukraine aint even in nato
The West means America too
exactly my point
@@MrWanainchi 0l
There is no significant us involvement in the beginning, you nonce.
This was terrific. An up to date analysis as of October 2023 would be very welcome.
Energy listed as number 5 and yet this is the reason that can explain both Georgia and Syria wars. War in Georgia stopped pipeline from Kaspian sea and war in Syria stopped the pipeline from Qatar.
Dear William, what a brilliant and in-depth explanation. Kudos to you n thank you for your effort for keeping the world informed.
@Toask Russian bots are active tonight. Nice of you to point out your ignorance and ego, though.
@Toask fr bot asf
whatever this was a light gloss over with important details left out
The only problem with drawing a line and saying compromise now (well not the only problem, someone mentioned trust and the lack of it which is also a valid point) is you reward russia for invading Ukraine. That is wrong, you cant reward aggression. Russia needs to get out of Ukraine, period.
World History,Wars. Those who reject, erase, subvert History Benefit by resurrecting, repeating history...Weaponizing Old Hatreds, Fears, Wars.
Clearly there will have to be resolution at some point... and it's going to involve where the border will be ... I would suggest they do the same thing the US and Mexico did after a border dispute in Texas started the Mexican American war... US just paid money to Mexico and the border moved.
It's no vast surprise to me that those whose politics and global affairs are informed by newspaper and TV, the mainstream media generally, weren't aware this war was coming - nor of the European and global significance of Ukraine as an important keystone of Western history.
But I've got books in my library published in the 2000's and 2010's, on topics with such titles as Essays on Security Concerns in Post-Soviet Europe, and the like, which whilst not crystal balls, are pretty clear about the likelihood of the trajectories of political tensions in Eastern Europe issuing in such a conflict.
Such facts must surely lead one to realize there are serious questions they might want to ask about the more prolific news media, like what are they doing, and for whom, when large chunks of what's really going on, and what the state of play is, in the world are lacking from the TV news and broadsheets. (There's no point me mentioning the tabloids, right!?)
But seriously, there has to be something there to query, maybe even seek to remedy, in our sources of news, their function, doesn't there??
I am a mathematician and a computer science engineer. I know nothing about international relations. But I learn a lot from your videos, and keep watching them, trying to understand a little bit more each time. Thank you very much for this great effort.
I advise you to leave this echo chamber then
It's nothing to do with international relations. Putin started life in a two room, rat infested apartment (his words). He is now rated to be the richest man in the world. This was not magic, it was financial greed and exploitation of the national resources of the Russian people, (they are taking home Ukrainian toilets as the spoils of war for Christ's sake). He has betrayed his people into the hands of the Chinese government.
I think your great
Arbitrary equations of massive engagements regarding economic amd military power oriented ventures unpredictable . A new realm worth beckoning; it'd take a lot of comprehension of the complexities involved . Not amicable by all standards of harmonious co-existance .
This is a good analysis of the causes of the war, especially Irredentism and Energy issues
There seems so be one concept you are either overlooking completely, or you've never heard it. I don't know which.
In the Ukraine today, there is a substantial population that remembers life behind the Iron Curtain. Today, they've had a couple decades of being their own country. They know the "before" and "after" very well. They are also well aware that a substantial number of the separatists are Russian imports (infiltrators). So, the concept I speak of is nothing new. I don't think anyone really knows just how old it is, but a few hundred years ago, George Washington put it into words:
BETTER TO DIE ON YOUR FEET THAN TO LIVE ON YOUR KNEES.
Because of this, Ukraine will not stop until Russia is pushed back to their own boarders. And they have no choice but to destroy the Kerch Bridge. Anything to stop the Russians from getting supplies and reinforcements. Even nuclear bombs will not stop them. And when the war is over, I see little or no trade going on with Russia. Do not expect the bridge to survive. Russia is not to be trusted. At this point, if they negotiate any settlement that gives Russia any territory, they validate the invasion. Do not expect them to do that.
Ukraine is also well aware that Putin has already expended more than half of the military capability. Weapons from Iran and North Korea validate that intelligence. They also know that Russia's first line of defense are prison inmates. The second line are the draftees. The third line are regulars. If the first line tries to retreat, the second line is ordered to shoot to kill. If the second line tries to retreat, the third line is ordered to shoot to kill. That accounts for all the bodies of Russian soldiers left behind. Putin is running out of everything to fight war with.
An expression I virtually never use. It makes you sound like a paper butt hole.
.... you are exactly what you alluded to ...
" If the first line tries to retreat, the second line is ordered to shoot to kill."
You realize all this overconfident bullshit is making your troops look pathetic in comparison?
Ukraine never was a country until the day Lenin dadice to. Where do u learn history, US? LOL Plus those nazi murders will be erased for good and I really hope to never heard frokm them again. Ukraine, for me as european, always was the most corrupted, violent, racist, and nazi country we knew.
Wow, this is close to the truth :) we indeed won't accept any peaceful negotiations on russia's terms, no chance. And russia won't accept negotiation on our terms, they would be too embarrassed by it: all this buzz, deaths, destruction and they still sucked? So we must fight for our legal land, European future, and peace. This is a matter of our identity, not just politics, war stop. russia tried to destroy us for too long in history. It needs to learn it cannot do anything they want for the sake of its imperialistic ambitions. They jerk off to the USSR period and "russia's greatness", but it puts in danger other nations surrounding them. They need to start respecting other's boundaries and solving their inner problems because there are hell of them.
To add to nabbar, Ruski Mir includes every nation with Slavs in it- Poland Czechia Slovakia at a minimum, But it is the Russians decide who is Slavic enough to include. De-Nazification obviously puts Germany in the firing line (notwithstanding that the Wagner group has more Nazis than the whole of Germany).
Giving up part of Ukraine will produce "peace in our time" in the same manner as pressuring the Czechs to give up the Sudetenland caused peace in 1938.
Any peace with Russia will require long term muscular enforcement.
This is BS. It does not include anyone outside of ex-USSR.
In football the home team usually wins.
Few years ago EU discussion about if Turkey shall become part of EU we listened.
Now EU is considering if Ukraine shall become part of it.
Hopefully there is the end of it, otherwise I ll be worried for Algeria.
Great job explaining the on going conflict between Russia , and Ukraine. I like to know your opinion on a end to the war
Ukraine loses, Russia Wins. Zelensky running away to one of his mansions in different countries or is killed or imprisoned by his own people, War ends!
I love your work here on the internet. On this episd. the fact that u went into bargaining examples, and also, game theory. Your lectures are well thought out, and you apply just the right amount of detail, so that a laymen such as myself can grasp what is really going on over their. When I was in college, my roommate was working on his masters in mathematics. You remind me of him. keep puttin out more great vids. Oh, Im going to pick up you book. God Bless T.E.
Good plan for both two countries
ahh damnit, i feel like this "lines on maps' problem is awfuly similar to the differential equations that come from options trading...
Another potential cause as peter zeihan points out is future security concern. Right now the western front is long and insecure especially by a aging Russian population. By trying to close the gap now they can make future defense easier.
Erudite to the point where the unpacking popped all the bubbles in the bubblewrap. Commendable effort, sir, the best outline on the war I have seen recently. Well done!
As human , we should share life . Monopolizing life is mistake .
Wish peace and balance relation for both . Amen
Thanks
Although you dismissed the 'Nazi' cause this is actually just another name for Putin's fear and hatred for the Western Democratic systems. The popular uprising in Ukraine is a nightmare scenario for Putin if it could happen in Russia and the War may be more idealistic and politically driven than we think.
Most of the Russian citizens from the larger cities know the true facts regarding the war. Russia is a very large country. Putin knows there is no Nazi threat from Ukraine. The Nazi threat claim came about for 1 reason. In the rural areas the memory of the Nazi invaders remain. To justify the war Putin says he is after the Nazi regime in Ukraine.
Says a Nazi with Petlyura's menstrual rag as an avatar! Why don't you just stop gaslighting and wasting people's time and replace it with a swastika?
@@tatianalyulkin410 Or a Z ?
@@tatianalyulkin410 I will replace it with a photo of Mariupol if you like. Real Nazi shit
The Viktor joke was honestly hilarious
Looking for a follow up in light of recent events ; )