Inside Russia's Looming Demographics Crisis
HTML-код
- Опубликовано: 15 май 2024
- Sign up for a 14-day free trial and enjoy all the amazing features MyHeritage has to offer bit.ly/WilliamSpaniel
By the Kremlin's own assessment, Russia faces a looming demographics crisis. Reverberations from World War II deaths and economic turbulence in the 1990s have left too many pensioners and too few young workers. This demographics problem have caused major protests in Russia before, and the domestic political conversation today still continues in its shadow. Some even speculate it is the root behind the invasion of Ukraine.
This video discusses the origins of the looming crisis, how the Kremlin has tried to mitigate the corresponding problems, and what issues still remain on the horizon.
0:00 Russia's Population Problem
4:16 Demographics and World War II
6:55 Fertility Rate and the Fall of the Soviet Union
9:03 Collapsing Demographics and Russia's Pension Plan
14:02 Demographics and the Invasion of Ukraine
18:15 How the War Will Cause Further Demographics Problems
Media licensed under KOGL Type 1 Attribution:
By Blue House:
www.kogl.or.kr/edu/eduDataFil...
Media licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/...
By Mitya Aleshkovsky:
www.flickr.com/photos/aleshru...
Media licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/...
By Rickky1409:
commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Fi...
By RIA Novosti:
visualrian.ru/ru/site/gallery/...
visualrian.ru/ru/site/gallery/...
visualrian.ru/ru/site/gallery/...
visualrian.ru/ru/site/gallery/...
Media licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 DE (creativecommons.org/licenses/...
By Bundesarchiv:
www.bild.bundesarchiv.de/dba/...
Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/...
By Duma.ru:
duma.gov.ru/multimedia/photo/2...
duma.gov.ru/multimedia/photo/6...
By Kremlin.ru:
tours.kremlin.ru/tour/senate
kremlin.ru/eng/articles/bigpho...
en.kremlin.ru/events/president...
en.kremlin.ru/catalog/keywords...
en.kremlin.ru/events/president...
en.kremlin.ru/catalog/regions/...
en.kremlin.ru/catalog/persons/...
en.kremlin.ru/events/president...
en.kremlin.ru/events/president...
en.kremlin.ru/events/president...
en.kremlin.ru/events/president...
kremlin.ru/catalog/persons/67/...
en.kremlin.ru/events/president...
en.kremlin.ru/events/president...
en.kremlin.ru/events/president...
en.kremlin.ru/events/president...
en.kremlin.ru/events/president...
en.kremlin.ru/events/president...
en.kremlin.ru/events/president...
en.kremlin.ru/events/president...
en.kremlin.ru/events/president...
en.kremlin.ru/events/president...
en.kremlin.ru/events/administr...
en.kremlin.ru/events/president...
en.kremlin.ru/events/president...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
Media licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/...
By Mediazona:
en.zona.media/article/2022/10...
By Rickky1409:
commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Fi...
By Tweedle:
commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Fi...
commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Fi...
By Kaj Tallungs:
commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Fi...
Sign up for a 14-day free trial and enjoy all the amazing features MyHeritage has to offer bit.ly/WilliamSpaniel
putin over shot with this war and you just gave the best analysis why.
greatly done .
*POKING THE BEAR BE ALL LIKE*
__👺NATO: "Nice 4$$ To Offer, Kremlin Gremlin..."
-∫ \\___😫Russia: "Oi blyat! Nyet!!"
_∫∫ _∫∫ \ \
*CLAP CLAP CLAP CLAP*
but but western propaganda cant deny the fact that western population is maintened via migrants from southern sphere
Triple 5s subs (at the time of this comment). Well done Prof.
The CIA and other western intelligence services have been working very hard since 1992 to influence Russians to have abortions, drink lots of alcohol and take lots of drugs.
Putin is the one who stood in their way and made huge successes in turning that around.
I've been telling people this for over 15 years, it's very obvious that Putin is not the bad guy in this whole narrative.
War definitely doesn't help promote healthy demographics.
Boomers?
It does...major conflicts are followed by population booms
30 years war is a prime example with some regions experienced up to 50% decline but the levels were up to pre war in 3 generations
@Prometheukles more 1920's France, génération perdue.
😅
@@kalinmir Only if they are won and it doesn't help if you loose more people then you get out of the boom.
Yeah. I'm Russian, 26 and happily married. No way I'm having kids here anytime soon if ever at all and that's totally not because we don't want kids entirely. This country has turned to such a sh*thole that the only things I can manage here is earn enough to sustain some sort of a life and keep myself from going completely insane. I don't really have enough mental energy to achieve anything more here.
Come to Europe:)
Leave for better pastures. There are many
Come to Central Europe, there are many Russians here. Even though it might sound unfriendly and yes - there is bias towards loud, obnoxious and agressive Russians, there are much more that just learned the language and live their normal live here. In company I work we have both Ukrainians and Russians - and they get along pretty fine - despite of what you might think. Normal people trying to live normal lives.
Russia's fertility rate, at 1.82, whilst well below replacement level, is the highest in Europe and higher than America. Keeping in mind the much higher fertility rates among immigrants of Muslim/African origin, if one were to look only at the fertility rates of the indigenous populations, Russia's rate is considerably higher.
Of course, the near collapse of fertility in Russia during the 1990s means that there are relatively fewer women in the child-bearing cohort currently, so the raw number of births is low.
You’re always welcome here in the United States. (:
I am from Russia, and its true. After war begun in 2022 i saw a rapid decline in "wanting to have a baby" among friends and relatives. It wasnt instant, but it gets worse every day.
Sure thing rabbi.
I'm from Russia. And I see that there are a lot of people giving birth to children around.
@@user-si2dr1pn3p дураки всегда найдутся, которые ни политикой не интересуются, ни экономикой, пущай рожают. Знаю я таких рсп и детдомовцев
You're delusional, you think anywhere in the West situation is different???
@@user-si2dr1pn3p it depends really ruski
“Without an obvious solution” not fighting large land wars and stealing most of the country’s wealth might be a start
Obvious to Russian leaders not us...
Easy to say for someone who doesn't work in government in Moscow, but is it politically feasible? :-)
@@julianbrelsford If Russia made its own problem than solve it or faced its consequence.
@@DOSFSthe “Russian” problem is that Muscovites spread like locusts
If things had gon to plan for Russia it's population would have increased by 40ish million.
The problem of alcoholism does not help.
@f-86zoomer37 the point is that alcoholism in Russia is way more rampant than the - admittedly awful - opiod epidemic. And it might help to put pressure on republicans to pass the border bill rather than hold it hostage for Dump?
WHO reports that in terms of alcohol consumption russia isnt higher than those of U.K or Belarus for example so this trope really isnt grounded in reality. And the most consumed alc beverage is beer in russia , ironically.
@@f-86zoomer37Good vatnik, but alcoholism is more prevalent than opiods/fentanyl. Good vatnik though, try to avoid getting mobik meat-cubed.
@@bulletflight lol “vatnik.” Get something new
I thought the commnt might get a lot of likes but ignored it because it was a lie and had come from the bot. Now i wsh i had said something. Here it goes. Stop lying!
All those young men that will never be a father really helps not.
Eh, 1 man can impregnate a lot of women, theoretically
deos not help but yaa pretty much sorry maybe
Those young men weren’t going to be doing anything anyway
Do you mean Ukrainians?
@@vesogry no, we are talking about russians
there's been cubans in cuba saying that the russian embassy is telling them they can migrate to russia with a working visa and when they arrive in moscow the get sent strait to the barracks and to the front trenches in ukraine
This definitely propaganda bro 😂
oooof
Yeah it's called Russian Roulette🎉
@@jrsharp7714Russia did the same to some Indians and there is a diplomatic spat between India and Russia over this. Russia is desperate.
So, they technically weren't lying.
One of the reasons there is this echo of the war is that the collapse of the Soviet Union collapsed right around the time that the echos of the old busts were becoming fainter, creating a new indentation in the population pyramid.
Makes sense and doesn’t sound like a coincidence. Of course it was more likely to collapse during one of those echoes of instability and demographic decline
Every soviet atate post collapse has demographics crisis even baltics central europe have ledd birthrate now than before
How does the collapse of a political entity affect the pyramid? A country shrunk. It didn't cause deaths.
@@boxsterman77A political collapse, and the following economic crisis and kleptocracy leads to skyrocketing poverty. Sky high poverty is bad for health. Low health means more dead and less childbirth. It is not rocket science.
@@boxsterman77 it caused people to think that it wasn’t a good time to have children
Maybe starting a pointless war didn't help as much as he thought it would.
Russia population increased by like 5m with new regions lol
@@denisdenisov4036 mostly older people. the young fled or have been sent to their deaths in the frontlines. Putin is anything but smart.
@@denisdenisov4036old people yeah. So thanks, Russian state can pay their pensions now 🤡. The young people moved to the rest of Ukraine.
@denisdenisov4036 The video is about demographics, and something tells me that the annexed Ukrainian population will not fix Russia's issues.
@@denisdenisov4036 5m is made-up number BUT russia can mitigate the disaster by the influx of central asian migrants into russia
Countries have different ways to deal with their specific demographic crisis, Russia's solution seems to be "Blaze of Glory".
Russia is just hitting all of Bon Jovi's greatest hits:
Blaze of Glory
Wanted Dead or Alive
Bad Medicine
Living on a Prayer
I'm just waiting for Russians to get Wild in the Streets.
Nope russia's way seems to be lets steal all we can from the country and don't solve the problem. War of congquest is just stealing on a large scale. Nothing to do with Glory or a blaze just good old fashion kleptocracy. If they had managed their country wright people would be flocking to Russia to get a piece of the pie.
And steal everything from the populace.
It’s better than rubber boats- now , and wind rush then .
@davidp3802 it is way worse tbh. Besides you only need a backbone to stop the dinghies and it does not involve war crimes and accelerating your demographic decline.
This does somewhat explain why Russia doesn't care about conscripting older people.
And prisoners, and specific ethnicities.
They are "cleaning house", their own house of burdens to the kremlin.
Bc those old stalinists are just fine sending their sons and grandsons to fight a war on a dictators war bc they had to. The ones that survived that is….
Yeah, legend has it that from next year on, the elderly who still remain in the country are allowed to cross red traffic lights on foot.
And from the year after that, they have to by law.
You have to look at the average age of the ukrainian military serving in the front....
Russia could’ve been Norway but with 150 million people and the largest land country with rich resources unfortunately like many other countries with thuggish dictators, Russia has been cursed with leadership like Putin
No it couldn’t its history was set when Moscow defeated Novgorod. Not even Pytor with his city built off the back of serfs could change “Russia”. What Putin and Bolsheviks before him discovered is that the Muscovite rule is based on centralization and without it the whole system would collapse and Muscovites would be sent back to Nihzy l-Novgorod and Volgograd
There's a number of countries with valuable resources but very few of them are Norway. Arguably just one. They call it the resource curse. Even very sane countries experienced it numerous times at a smaller scale, Netherlands etc. Your largest and most endless resource is people, and it pays to invest in that, since even a limited number of people can have their output grow effectively without bound.
However when you find a resource in the ground that you only need to dig up to get rich while involving a small number of people, well it tends to pull all investment away from all other possible areas and towards that, and then things end up turning out worse for the people.
Things were so much better in the 90's before Putin, true.
@@user-df5ym9dv5g Well they were shitty back then. But people have to realise that Russia opening up to the world wasn't the problem. It only showecased all the internal problems Russia had while before everything was kept secret or numbers were disguised to look better. Working on a broken system for decades wasn't a good base to start a whole new functioning system.
A lot of those resources are in areas where the permafrost is thawing at twice the rate than in the past. When the invasion of Ukraine began, certain power brokers in Moscow had already lobbied for control of different industries in any newly acquired territory. Russia is just a robber baron.
I keep hearing things about Kaliningrad - how the pre-existing independence movement became stronger lately, how a large portion of Russians opposed to war have moved there. Can you talk about how likely or unlikely the exclave leaving the Russia Federation is?
It won’t. There’s literally no feasible way Russia lets it slide, simply out of strategic necessity. There’s also no way that any nation would want to incorporate that many Russians into its territory so even if it did it would be a city state.
@@RenegadeElite101I don't think a city state because I think it similar to kosovo or Montenegro
@RenegadeElite101 Kaliningrad Oblast is not just the city of Kaliningrad my man. So it wouldn't be a city state
Me too. Do have recent figures on what percentages are pro/neutral/anti war?
They could declare independence but Russia will just crackdown on them. Unless it was accepted by Lithuania or Poland there’s no point. Poland or Lithuania won’t accept it due to the headache it would cause.
Last time I was this early, "Russia Stronk" was still a meme!
Gotta love the Lazerpig loop
wIDE pUTIN
russia is just experiencing their demographic fasting journey of charmic healing
No one cares if you are early.🙄
@@FYMASMDI do.
Russia:
Male retirement age: 65
Male life expectancy: 64
Mega-litres of Vodka consumed ,,, 100
64.21 years in 2022…
It's always intrigued me why female retirement age is lower than male despite female life expectancy being greater. Not my kind of logic.
Opening with the quote from the Kremlin was genius
0:27 nice to see that at least the World Health Organisation respects your commentary
Haha 😂
Please don't put text near the edges of the video. It can't be read while the video is paused, because some dumbo at YTHQ decided that the controls for the video should overlap the video itself.
Thank you for the insights.
Thank you for verbalizing this in text. Its been one of my pet peeves about RUclips for years... I hate it!
I haven't used YT app for years (only browsers), and that way controls are transparent and disappears in a few seconds after using them or you just touch the empty field for them to disappear. Or you mean the timestamps overlapping captions, which does the same?
Another reason to avoid this is that some devices have an overscan problem when connected to a TV, which may or may not be able to be corrected depending on the exact device and TV combination in question. When the image is overscanned, its edges lie beyond the physical dimensions of the screen, thus completely chopping off anywhere from a few pixels to a few dozen pixels along each edge. So, having a decent spatial "buffer" around the critical content of the image ensures that anything lost to overscan, UI overlap, or any similar interference won't cause a problem for some viewers.
@@dannydetonator You're saying the controls disappear _when the video is paused?_ This is not the case in my browser (Google Chrome); once you pause the video the controls (and title, in full-screen mode) are permanently on the screen until shortly after you resume playback.
It may also sound a bit rich but some people own curved phone screens so the edges may get lost
Japan and South Korea in 2023 set new record lows for births, effectively 0.7 births per woman, with urban China not far behind.
Wouldn't even be surprised if urban China was actually ahead. A lot of young Chinese simply cannot afford children and the One Child policy has extremely detrimental long-term effects. But getting accurate numbers about anything that is bad for the Party is difficult.
@@Llortnerof However there is one misconception that is the male/female ration and the "male surplus" myth , yes i call it a myth because as it turns out china overcounted its population by 100 million and peter zaihan himself admitted that 1/3 of them were males thus the "male surplus" argument is completely debunked.
Fertilitybrate in japan is 1.367 , not 0.7
@slopedarmor correction, thanks.
Japan 758,631 births in 2023, 8th straight year of decline, giving rate of 1.26
Compared s korea births of 230,000 for a rate of 0.72
It’s not just that bad demographics, military casualties and immigration equals less workers equals less economic output. Due to sanctions, prioritization of military production and damage to infrastructure, each worker is less productive. The state is producing less and less to support pensioners. Unfortunately this is probably a manageable problem for Russia, at least for another few years.
Immigration equals more workers actually or did i read you wrong? Its literally stated in the video that russia has an influx of migrants
@@u2beuser714
I believe he's talking about immigration to be specific, Russians leaving Russia since the beginning of the war.
@@mariatheresavonhabsburg Huge numbers have returned. The ones who have remained abroad are 'Russians' that the Federation is better off without.
@@mitchyoung93 "We didn't need that anyway!"
Facinating! Many thanks for compounding my anxiety and confusion. At eighty two I find these presentations so informative. One of the few expert Americans who speaks slow enough for the less quick witted to take it all in. I look forward to the next one.
10:45 the adjective is "pyramidal"
neuroscientist detected 👆
@@mightywurlitzer Nah, chemist actually. There's a lot of chemical structures with pyramidal geometry.
Pyramoidal
I had pyramidal once, the doctor gave me some cream. Cleared right up!
Pyrrhic actually
The situation is much worse when you look at geographical split of natality. The regions with 2+ children are always non russian.
Most population growth in Russia occurs in Dagestan and Chechnya. The Muscovy and St. Petersburg regions have rates of ~1.3 children / woman, they are waaaay under replacement rate in the "Real Russian" areas.
The first vid I’ve ever watched where u could read the captions before they took it down. Well done
I really appreciate your depth of research and insight. I really enjoy the informative and the way you deliver it
:D
19:05 Definitely the tone of your writing; your tone of voice is so precisely measured as to keep time on the geological scale.
A distinction should be made that ( 4:16 Demographics and World War II ) NOT all of the 27 million ''Soviets'' that died where Russians. Many of the satellite states that where under Kremlin control had little if NO choice, but to fight on behalf of who was oppressing them. Thankfully many are now under the NATO umbrella. Probably a good reason why Ukraine, Moldova to name just two want into NATO and the EU.
True, i forgot the exact number, but over 10M of Red armie's KIA didn't come from Russian FSSR and even more were not "ethnic russians" (if that's a real thing). The most soldiers drafted in WW2 proportionally by ethnicity from USSR were apparently Ukrainians.
P.S. Although correct now and majority wanted to approach or go for EU membership in Ukraine, prior to 2014 around 70% were against joining NATO. Now no sane citizen from territorial Europe outside Russia objects to NATO membership. 😲
P.P.S. Correction: ~13M of Red Army WW2 victims were not Russian. And Ukrainians proportionally was the second most affected after Belorussians. Excuse the P.S. comments, i have no option to edit mine. At least it helps the algorithm.
Cheers for the reply@@dannydetonator
To paint USSR constituents to mere "poor poor oppressed" is disingenous many of USSR republics were happy to be part of the "union treaty" the treaty which gave them choice to either be independent or part of ussr the referendum before the collapse and ukraine, ironically, chose to stay within the USSR and only changed AFTER when the august coup happened. So no, ukraine wasnt really "OPPRESSED" they were happy to be part of that very same oppression themselfs
Wow you make some really good videos! This was excellent and very informative!
He doesn't make that many but they are always interesting to watch.
Thank you 💛 William I appreciate your excellent report. My brother used to search our family history. Your views are perfect sir.
A point you appear to have overlooked. The 3:1 ratio traditionally used between WIA and KIA may well be inaccurate when looking at Russian losses. There has been a lot of evidence that field medicine has been largely absent from the Russian forces, alongside a poor standard of medicine provided to those lucky enough to be evacuated to a Hospital. With this in mind, the true WIA:KIA ratio may well be much closer to 1:1, which would affect demographic figures much more than you suggest. Add to that the large number of working age males who left the country to avoid being called in to service, which may be as high as 1.75million (with a further 500k+ family members also leaving), and Russia's demographic problems may be somewhat worse than suggested...
Bruh, if we take all people who take a part in military operation it's something around 500-800k for 2 years. Many of those wasn't actually young. Even if your numbers right, it wouldn't affect russian demographic in any significant way.
There's a lot of reasons the ratio between WIA and KIA will be off in the Ukraine war, as each war is an unique beast in it's own right.
A lot of modern body armor on both sides, so a lot of wounded simply won't happen. Especially from shrapnel. Some KIA will now be WIA.
It's very artillery heavy, and there's lots of powerful precision weapons. Direct hits from artillery, ATGM's or anything similar pretty much ignores armor, and is 100% fatal.
@@user-xt1yj5pt9y Yeah but you forget the already have a demographic problem. Losing all these people certainly isn't going to help them fix the problem.
@@Lilitha11 , actually, thanks to sanctions now many young people who would migrate to Europe can't do that, because Europe closed itself for russian people.
@@user-xt1yj5pt9y The average age of Russian servicemen is between 20 and 24, depending on the year. Infantry is a young man's profession, and is largely composed of conscripts, and 2 year contractors who took that as a nicer alternative to being conscripted (they might get paid). The military isn't a career choice like it is in the United States. People get in, serve their time, and get out. It's also the source of Russia's NCO shortage.
A thorough dive into something I’ve read a lot about but you added some good ideas/details I wouldn’t have thought of
Thanks for the video update
Hi William. A very good analysis, thank you for summing up the problems on demographics which must be one of Russia's biggest headaches as you mention.
One thing I thought could be emphazised though is not just the lack of people, but also the effect of rapid aging combined with flight of younger people and impressment into the war.
The size of the actual available workforce from year to year must be dwindling at an alarming rate (exaggerated even further when excluding the defense industrial base as well)
Thank you for your good work, I enjoy your videos.
Regards from Denmark
Lot of westerners are moving to Russia if you did not know that?
It's even worse than that. PZ does the deep dive on their workforce and infrastructure. They're screwed.
They lost too many men back in the Battle of Stalingrad in WW2. Those men who died never went home to start families. That means their children were never born. Every 25-30 years there's an echo in the demographics. There's a ditch where people should be. The children who were never born also never had children. That's just how it is.
In the USA the baby boomers had children. For the rest of the world, this hardly happened at all. Russian baby boomers didn't have lots of children like we did.
That makes another ditch. This generation of Russians was just barely hanging on before the war. They were just barely keeping infrastructure working.
Back in the 80's in an attempt to hold on to what they had, the Soviet Union cut educational spending so they could spend more on the military. They wanted to hold the Eastern Bloc countries. This didn't work. The Russians simply couldn't afford it anymore and pulled out of Eastern Europe. As soon as they did, the Berlin Wall was dismantled and the people of those countries overthrew the Commie oppressors in their own land. They collaborated with the Soviets. They were traitors.
Back to education, this means Russia stopped training new engineers and other professionals needed to maintain the infrastructure.
These people are now 35 years older. They are either retiring or dying off at an alarming rate. Remember, Russia has a shorter average life span.
Russia doesn't have the workforce to fix what Ukraine keeps bombing.
And now Putin keeps pulling men out of their day jobs to die on the front lines in Ukraine. He's gutting the workforce to prop up a pre-doomed invasion.
Human life clearly means nothing to Putin. He's an old-school Soviet throwback. People are just numbers to him.
Much like Germany in WW2, Russia has already wasted most of its young able-bodied men. They were the first to die.
By they end of WW2 the German army was composed of kids under 15 and men over 50. This is not an effective fighting force. It's a demography that has been hollowed out.
The next nail in the coffin comes when Russian women realize Ivan is never coming home. He's dead and maybe buried in a communal grave somewhere in Ukraine.
Russian women are famous for leaving the country and finding prospects elsewhere. We know the concept of the Russian Mail-Order Bride. That's a real thing. Men would order a wife and some Russian woman shows up looking to get married.
This is also the origin of the superstition where it's bad luck to see the bride before the wedding. Sometimes the guy saw her and said no.
It is mathematically possible for one Russian man to impregnate 20 Russian women and have 20 children. Mathematically. But why would Russian women agree to this if there was any other option?
It's not mathematically for one Russian woman to be impregnated by 20 Russian men and have 20 children. Biology doesn't work that way.
As soon as enough young Russian women leave, it's no longer mathematically possible for Russia to have a next generation worthy of the name. When Russian women leave, it places a hard cap on the potential number of children for the next generation. It's just not going to happen. It can't.
The smart ones will leave and find husbands elsewhere, anywhere. Even Ukraine would be better. If they stay in Russia it will turn into The Handmaid's Tale. I assume. I never watched the show, it looks silly. But this would be a reality if they stay. There would be one Russian man trying to impregnate 20 Russian women.
These women would live in abject poverty, doing little more than raising children, with no expectation of money or food. How could that even work?
So yeah, the smart ones will leave as fast as possible before the government orders enforced pregnancy for all women.
Much like the men in China who can't mathematically find wives (surplus of men instead of women) the Russian women will see that it's mathematically impossible to find husbands. That is unless they want to join a harem. Not a fun harem like in the movies where they're all married to a prince with unlimited money. This would be a trailer park harem where the guy is a bum and he boozes up every night.
What woman in her right mind would want any part of that.
And forget it if the woman is a lesbian. All lesbians are now outlawed for the greater good. You WILL get pregnant and raise children for the glory of Mother Russia.
Here's your shifty looking unemployed husband. Good luck.
@@user-fe5lr9zt3y Do you have proof of that? Or are you referring to the few loud instagram/tiktok/youtube families trying to live out their fundamentalist Christian wet dreams?
@@user-fe5lr9zt3y Not anymore, Russia's invasion of Ukraine and sanctions took care of that.
You forgot or maybe omitted the part where russia has an jnflux of immigrants from central asia TILL THIS DAY
You seem to forget that as of the present situation, the two million young people that left Russia, are a population loss just as much as those killed in the war. It is a loss that in part can be retrieved if Russia becomes a better place to live. But for now, it can safely bee counted as a loss. Said in another way: Rusdia has lost between 2 and 2,5 million people in this war. Also, the video mention a current reproduction rate of 1,4. This rate will certainly go down in the comming years as Russia becomes a more difficult place to live in. That is not an irreversible thing, but it will have at least dome visible effect down the line. Also: prison population doesn't reproduce.
Yes 2 million 'chosen people' have returned to Israel. Anything new you wish to share, rabbi?
@@centurionoomae1543 what nonsense are you talking about.
@@torehaaland6921 Nice pilpul rabbi.
Here's a crazy idea: restore hope to the Russian people by returning all the wealth you and your cronies have stolen, rooting out corruption in the military, and using that money to pay them fairly, pull out of Ukraine, and step down as dictator.
No? I didn't think so 😕
William Spaniel, Thanks for posting this video.
Excellent content man!
Thank you Ukraine for helping this problem along. Help them harder.
Imagine what Russia could have been if it had concentrated on being a peaceful neighbor. It could have prospered in Europe.
Their last attempt at that was in the Russian Revolution, and they messed it up
Prosperity is bad for authoritatian government
@@kompatybilijny9348 Not really it is in fact strengthening authoritarian governments for example singapore or even china where the government gains a sort of legitimacy by raising living standards
@@u2beuser714 uhh....that prosperity come at the cost of its own people. You have to travel to china to see how most people live. Most are not sastified but rather put up with the regime and hardship.
@@heroes8844 Im pretty sure you havent visited china while there are rural areas ofc all you have to do is look at india and you know what im talking about
Mr. Spaniel, this video is a tour de force. By far the most interesting and clearest thinking piece I have seen on the pointless Russian war…
Australia moved the aged pension from 65 to 67 for both males and females. It was progressively increased by 6 months every 2 years. Also even though some can afford to retire early, some are choosing to keep working past their retirement.
Imagine William Spaniel and Perun married. Best relationship ever.
EDIT: I can see when they argue who's doing the dishes:
Perun: 1hr13m long PowerPoint about the economics of dish soap and why that makes it Williams turn to wash the dishes tonight.
William Spaniel: Makes a 20min long argument with Lines on Maps that they could just get a housekeeper. After the argument William tries to sell Perun his books.
And they lived happily ever after!
No kids though.
Please never use a keyboard again
I can actually picture this happening.
Thanks for the historical look at the population pyramid. We‘re well aware that there will be an impact from Russian losses in the war in Ukraine, but may not of previous history. And those who do not learn from history will be doomed to repeat it.
Good video. I knew of this issue but you added useful info and perspective. However, it is simplistic to regard demographics as a full explanation for decisions of war and peace.
Such an interesting perspective on the war.
It always needs to be said that the soviets did not lose that many people due to balls of steel, but brains of rock. they didn't need to lose the most people by a large margin, their tactics made them.
I love the opening. You had me fooled for a moment, CIA man!
It's funny watching him make all sorts of predictions and most of them fail to materialise 😅. The Russian Ukraine war is causing a meltdown in western propagandists.
@@teute256_6Cope and Seethe 🤡🤖
@@teute256_6So Muscovite population stats are fake?
Bet you could not argue that thesis if your life depended on it @@teute256_6
Like your research and conclusions.
Your work is incredibly appreciated. 💛💙
William, if you could read/access any secret / hidden / classified piece of information from history, what would it be?
I like the longer video. Good work 👍
Another interesting commentary. I thank the author!
Thx very informative
Thank you for the good work!
Fascinating analysis...
Lot of westerners are moving to Russia if you did not know that?
@@user-fe5lr9zt3y The more you copy paste that the more obvious it that you are a bot, did you know that?
@@Usual_User what do i copy paste,poor uninformed and ignorant soul! West is losing proxy war in Ukraine,54 western nazi countries against Russia alone.
@@user-fe5lr9zt3y really? Could you show us some reliable data on that?
@user-fe5lr9zt3y You should be careful posting things that go against what your supreme leader has said. Avoid upper floors Botski?
Excellent video, thank you.
Interesting and looking good for the future👍
He’s worried about a population drop and continues a gratuitous war that only makes things worse. Dumb all over - and under too.
Because the only thing he was worried of is the drop of his popularity. So he wanted another "short victorious war"
Excellent video! Keep up the great work!
Thank you!
0:42 excellent twist! 👌
Russia is the largest landmass in the world, but its population, about 144 million, is less than half of the USA, and one-tenth that of China or Russia, each at 1.4 billion. Yet, Russian leaders still want more land. It is completely insane.
Just because a country is huge that doesnt mean that all the places are habitable and that the climate is suitable. Australia for example is literally a continent its huge yet it has mere 25 million inhabitants it has the population of new delhi, a city in india
Ukraine is not any land. It was a gift in exchange for their loyalty. Older R|ussians remember it as a part of Ruusia and have pics of it as a part of the RF. The memomries are there so are the haerts.
This conflict wasn't started for land. It's about influence.
@@u2beuser714 This is true, a large chunk of Canada (specifically Northern Ontario) is basically just rock, water and trees. Apart from some mining and forestry, there just isn't a lot there to develop, especially with no good agricultural land.
cause 70% is permafrost
William, watch out, Peter Zeihan has hijacked your channel! 😂
Peter Zeihan is a 🤡
@@thievingpandabased on what?
@@thievingpandaAh yes, the most reputable source of criticism: anonymous randos on the internet.
@@chrishooge3442 Based on his "x will collapse" lo and behold he predicted that germany will literally COLLAPSE yeah. You know the Yakko sing along country meme? Thats him but instead of countries he keeps saying "collapse collapse collapse"
@@u2beuser714 Most of Europe is on a demographic cliff. Do you disagree?
You bamboozled me in the last part. I was expecting a book plug.
"No country bore the burden to the extent that the Soviet union did"
China: are you sure about that
The USSR lost the largest amount of people. 27 million. Russia lost the most , 14 million, in the absolute sense of the SSR's whilst Belarus has the largest percentage of its population lost of any country in the war, losing 1/4th of its population.
That was more of a paralel war
@@dylanvogler2165 We dont know how many Chinese were lost to the CCP but the higher estimates are up around 100 million.
@@foilhat1138 to the CCP, so you mean the civil war? As China in WW2 was the Chinese United Front between the Chinese government (ROC) and the communists. So would be weird calling the Chinese casualties all "CCP" casualties.
@@dylanvogler2165Don't forget Stalin's genocides - conservatively 7M people.
Actually almost all eastern European countries are currently in Demographics Crisis, alot the young people from there are either migrating west to western Europe and US/ Canada or migrating east to China, South Korea and other nations.
Western Europe and Asian nations like South Korea and Japan are suffering a demographics Crisis aswell.
Yes, it is a world wide problem. No different in the U.S
@@cfisher11 Nah, it's not a worldwide problem. US has traditionally supported its wonky demographics via immigration of highly educated or otherwise capable 20-40-year-olds from all across the globe, and lots of other successful countries continue to do that. South Korea and Japan can solve their issue by opening up the floodgates to Southeastasians or Indians or someone else. There's plenty of young people in the world.
And none of you lot have such horrible waves in the demographics profile.
Very well explained
I love the reference to will Kent haha
Pyramidical is the correct adjective professor 🔺
My Russian wife gets a pension of 10000 rubles per month - about 108 dollars. Thank God she lives with me in the USA.
According to Tucker Carlson she'd live like a Queen, or Tsarina, had she stayed.
That's below min pension so that's a lie. The reason why ppl might believe it is bz they don't travel. You should watch Travelling with Russell or come visit not that you would do any of that bz why else lie if one doesn't have an agenda...
12k is minimal pension - update your instructions book
@@morstyrannis1951 Ironically OP , the person your respond to fell for the same nonsense as tucker he failed to see purchasing power parity i.e 108 dollars is a lot in russia and its very small in the U.S thus making it seem as if living by 108 dollar in russia is very low
@@Chaldon-hl6ykтакую хуйню высрал, будто что-то крутое сказал. Даже если минималка 12к, то с какого перепугу это что-то меняет?
Great content
Lines on maps are back on the menu!
Demographic collapse is the case across the globe mostly.
Ya it had been going on in Russia for half a century and it just started for the rest of the developed world
It’s not black and white, there’s levels of severity
@@SquidMonke4 "Dime a dozen"bullshit chanel,made for gullible,ignorant and brain dead?
In most of Africa, middle East, south east Asia and few of South American's states the demographics aren't collapsing. But the trends there shows the curve of birth rates is more or less slowly but nonetheless decreasing in many parts of this regions also.
It hasn't "just started" in the rest of the world. It's been collapsing since the 80's and 90's.
I am not disagreeing with anything here, I just wanted to point out that some of the worst hit nations in WW2 are Lithuania, Latvia, Poland and Ukraine... also Belarus, but Belarus is more complicated.
Now sure, when saying it I mean per capita deaths and Lithuania had highest percentage of pre-war population killed... it is usually incorrectly calculated, because pre-war Poland had invaded Lithuanian city... and thus Lithuanians are counted into Polish population whereas they should have been counted as Lithuanians... point is, when that is accounted for Lithuania becomes most "hit country" and Poland becomes second most "hit".
Yes soviets lost 20 million people in the war, but large part of those 20 million were no russians, they were Belarussians, Ukrainians, Poles, Lithuanians and so on. Secondly, that high cost came to be because of meat wave tactics, disregard for human life, repressions of their own soldiers etc. So 20 million death toll it is less about the "sacrifice made" or being "hit hard" and more about soviet tactic. They were happy to send people to their death, now they are complaining about demographics. And we see repeat of that in Ukraine nowadays - nothing has changed.
I guess what I am trying to say, there is different perspectives of that, not just that "soviets sacrificed more for human kind", in fact we probably be better of if they lost. Nazis would have lost anyway when nukes came to stage, but we would have avoided Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan twice, Iraq and probably 120 million people dying in communist mao china.
Should I help you remember that Germany was first country who started discovering ballistic missiles? By the end of war they had many good weapon ideas, but no means to mass produce them. So, if war wasn't that hot for them, they probably would nuke you first.
Also, winning Germany and loosing Japan isn't a same thing. They would continue to fight, especially in this scenario, when they would control something around 1/2 Earth surface.
@@user-xt1yj5pt9y May be true, but not following up with operation "unthinkable" was biggest mistake in history of human race. As mentioned - all the wars since WW2 was because soviets were not destroyed and were allowed to stay in Europe they occupied and even spread further.
I love your OBVIOUS USE OF ROMAN NUMERALS hahaha, I love Roman Numerals, so take my sub and have an amazing day!
It seems intuitively weird that prosperity and economic collapse can not lead to under fertility.
And that sense of weirdness does not go away even when i understand your explanation for both parts of that.
Do you understand the loss of life from World War 2(27 million Russians died)? Do not understand the effects it had on the Russian birth rate after losing that many men who could Father the next generation and the next generation after that?
Indeed, this is why we should be cautious about getting too overzealous with stopping migration - if you're countries birth rate is below 2.1children/woman, then you'd need (and want) those migrants - especially the skilled ones (doctors, pharmacists, accountants etc). So, the migrants crossing the borders may be too much for the system to handle (and they may not be in skills-shortages areas, plus obviously, controlled migration is more ideal) but it's worth noting the role migration plays in sustaining our way of life and our democracies.
The paradox is that it's those who are struggling economically and think they have nothing to lose who will risk it all using their life savings to pay off traffickers and do dangerous sea crossings.
Doctors and engineers may earn enough to dissuade them from desperate measures, and if they do want to migrate there's visas to expedite the hiring of foreigners who have high skills in demand.
Yeah but you are dealing with individuals whom believe in replacement theory.
They would rather force breeding programs then migration....
Sad fact is I am not being hyperbolic there, you can talk to these individuals easily as they are very vocal about their pet theory. Lot of high end names believe in it too, like Musk, so it has a strong popular following under every stone. When you get down to how we are going to solve this shrinking population problem the answer is always the same.
Create more of the 'correct' people.
Even if government has to intervene to do ensure it.
Bonus thing to keep in mind:
Working migrants, like myself by the way, can not collect from programs they support. As much as this is horrible to exploit, within the situation being described here it is the very feature government should be looking for. A group of people who will pay into programs they can not collect from are the intermediary step to removing those programs entirely.
For, long as the population is shrinking, those programs will have to go.
There are some wrecked European countries that may disagree with you. Migrants, a positive asset. Migrants that will not assimilate, will breed the natives out and take over the country. The UK, France and Sweden are great examples. All three will be Islamic republics by 2100.
Using immigration to solve birth rates, is like ripping wood from your house walls to keep the fireplace burning. In the short term it works, in the long time you have destroyed your home. The countries which rely on massive Islamic immigration are already coming to regret this.
If you import mainly skilled migrants you'll end up with natives being second class citizens in their own country - a recipe for disaster. I used to be a software engineer. I wouldn't recommend it as a career now because the salaries have been ruined by foreigners bought in on temorary work visas for 1/3 of the cost. If you are a young person starting out you have to guess which career the government is not going to ruin next.
Hell yuh lines on maps
Good info
I appreciate you dawg 🐕
his dung?
Those meatwaves certainly aren't going to help lol
Fortunately Putin has put some 2.1 million doses of his man batter on ice for just such a situation. 🕺🏼
Fun fact. The Great Patriotic War is not a literal translation. It's called the Great Fatherland War. Великая Отечественная Война, where Отечество is Fatherland. The problem is that in English, the word Fatherland can't be turned into an adjective, unlike the work Patriot.
Patriotic actually derives from the root word 'patria', which is Latin for 'fatherland'. The reason for that is that 'patria' is composed of 'pater' (which means "father") and '-ia' (which is used in a similar way to "-ство" in Slavic languages).
So no, it is in fact a literal translation already.
You're thinking of the word 'patriot' because English is a weird language and only partially imported its derived words from French, without including 'patrie' among them.
Congrats on the sponsor 👏🏻
The problem with social security is decades of corporate tax cuts. If we rolled back the corporate free ride we would have plenty to pay for SS.
Ty! I knew this was a thing. Dooming their own future. Ty so much for the sober analysis and content, dear AI. xoxoxo
Nobody knows the future, there are just models. And who is AI?
I’ve seen a similar video for almost every major country.
was wondering about the red and yellow lines 14 minutes in
I say that the Russian demographic crisis should really count everything between ww1 and the end of ww2 (so the world wars, the civil war and Stalin's masacres).
William is an excellent Spaniel, he knows how to make logical conclusions. My spaniel only knows how to shit on the carpet and fetch a stick. Good boy Wiliam, good boy...
And yes, I apologize for my rudeness, but such indicators for the first 4 hours with 500k subscribers are cheating, a lot of bots came and liked it. Scam
@@user-qh6hc7kr8t Down boy, down. You're a bad dog yourself.
I consider this an absolute win.
People have been decrying the problems of lower birthrates for decades. Japan has been experiencing this for decades. And it turns out the results aren't dramatic catastrophes. Some deflation, some economic hardships, but at the end of the day Japan is getting on just fine.
Yeah but Japan and Russia are not really the same.
@@dylanvogler2165they aren't. But I doubt it will cause anything catastrophic. They'll adapt, have to cinch in the belt a little bit, but it won't be society collapsing or regime changing.
@@christopherrowley7506 probably not. But I doubt it will be good for Russia's dreams of empire and superpower status. The funny thing about Russians is that they are quiet, and will do as they are told, until suddenly they don't and then things can change very fast. We have seen this both in 1917 and 1991
Dunno about that... you seen their Nationa Debt to GDP ratio?
@@jasonbartnik9044How does it compare to the US's?
I also wonder how much of Russia's income is off the books. Does their 'shadow fleet' contribute to GDP for example?
What are some countries which do not have a looming demographics crisis?
Netherlands, Switzerland. Though still decreases
@@patches4170 These two countries are basically the economic jewels of Europe. Have you seen how large Russia is? It can't all be a jewel.
@@patches4170this is wrong. Both of these countries have fertility below 2.1 and their population is only increasing because of immigrants.
@@patches4170 "Dime a dozen"bullshit chanel,made for gullible,ignorant and brain dead?
This video has me thinking that the "Special Military Operations" is also about the Pension problem next to "Security" and Urainke Gas & oil discovery
Well, so far all it has done is make it worse.
Thank you for this. I was actually wondering about this the other day, not Russia specifically but world-wide. Human populations are more sensitive to stress than we are willing to admit. Factors like war, economics, human concentrations, resource depletions and surpluses are all factors but our "leadership" just isn't bright enough or free enough from their ambitions to address it. I would love to be able to take a peak at Earth 200 years from now to see where all this leads.
bro, I always thought....Tsar Romanov looks exactly like Medvedev. they must be realated.
Medvedev even behaves like little prince 😂
ps. Medvedev is shaved but imagine Romanov shaved....they are twins
Får jag svar katrin o jonas😂😂😂😂❤❤❤😅😅😅😊😊
@@Katrin-fh1om which Katrin or Jonas you mean? ☺️
Fick katrin och jonas svar ❤❤❤❤❤😂😂😂😂😮😮😅😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊
Fick katrin och jonas svar. 🍀🍀♥️♥️🍀🍀💬😍
Å Fick katrin och jonas svar❤❤❤❤😂😂😂😂😮😮😮😮😅😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊
When one talks about WW2 one should always mention that USSR and Nazi Germany started it as allies in 1939-1941
An historical injustice that Russia was given a "pass" but one that will be corrected in the future.
Take into account that western countries did nothing to prevent previous Nazi aggression, such as the annexation of Czechoslovakia. If England or France did something it would prevent aggression towards Poland and probably ww2.
YOU ARE BLATANTLY LYING.
@@TogetherForever-mg1mh Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, learn basic history
@@Ofasia777 Other historical injustices that the west gets a "pass" on is their appeasement of germany. Still isnt corrected though till this day
On a boring topic, an interesting video. Thanks.
"As the tone of my voice..."
Brother....
Not last
The opposite of that, in fact!
crazy