How Ukraine Is Exploiting Russia's Oil Bottleneck Problem
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- Опубликовано: 28 май 2024
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For months, Ukraine has targeted Russia's oil industry with drone strikes. Subtly, though, Ukraine's focus has been specifically on hitting refined oil products, not raw crude. This video examines why that is the case. We begin with obvious factors, like value, concentration, and distance. However, due to a less obvious bottleneck problem with shipping, the marginal value of hitting crude may in fact be nearly zero for Ukraine.
0:00 The Timeline of Ukraine's Attacks
2:20 The Relative Value of Crude and Refined Oil
4:20 The Concentration of Targets
5:46 The Geography of Attacks
7:42 Russia's Bottleneck on Ships
11:57 The Benefit of Further Sanctions
13:28 Russia's Defensive Strategy
15:12 Black Sea Parallels
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Short note: There has been at least one more strike and perhaps two since I produced this video.
Longer explanation: I produced this weekends ago, with plans to publish it last week. Then the Iran/Israel exchange happened, which delayed publication. Sorry!
dont put zelensky as thumbnail, His not weary popular in Ukraine
Could you explain why Ukraine slowed down the attacks? Follow up video maybe?
@@djohokin2325 What
@@djohokin2325 Lol, sure whatever you say.
A gallon is about 4 liters.
I was surprised you didn't make the pun "Killing two birds with one _drone_ ." 😝
Oh snap
@@Gametheory101noted for next time ay?
@@TNOBasedBatov Well we are pointing at him with a pun. He has no choice.
Read “Oh snap” in his voice😅😅
eeyyyyyy!😂😎👌
The refined products and distillates are more highly volatile than crude oil. It takes more energy to ignite crude. The distillates require much less energy to become an inferno, and depending on the site design of the facility, you could take out part or all of the facility.
He mentioned starting up a idle oil well. I thought you couldn't do that. Do you know?
Communism just don't work the people aren't happy
The entire lecture is on USA ELECTION ,EFFECT ON INFLATION AND BEST FOR UKRAINE NOT TO DESTROY REFINERIES? THEN THE WAR WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 2026 ?
@@bobthompson-ec4zr it is possible to restart an idle oil well but there is a significant risk that a) it is just unable to start up again b) will never reach prior production capacity. I’m not certain on the science behind why this is the case but basically the result is shutting down an oil well temporarily may often cause permanent damage to the well
@@EdT.-xt6yv That is not what this lecture is about.
The effect of this on oil prices in the US is massively overblown anyways.
"Plankton cemetery" is worth a bonus like IMHO.
It'd make a great band name.
But what kind of band 🤔
Oil is made from vegetation, not plankton
@@Comrade_Akimov*diatomaceous ooze has entered the chat*
@@Comrade_Akimov Phytoplankton
My adult autistic son and I love watching these during his feeding time before he goes to work. Your voice really calms him down which is great because it makes it so much easier to get the tube in (he hates the feeding tube).
Anything for a national treasure like Bob Saget.
My brother had similar needs and I'm glad to hear you found something that makes those tasks easier!
Take care and all the best
@@jospi2 I do believe that was a joke lol
Jonathan Swift is LHAO ... that is awesome satire, the "feeding tube" put it over-the-top !!!
I am not sure if your son would be comfortable with you discussing his needs and problems like that. We are in general too comfortable to share really private, intimate details of our lifes on the internet and especially the lifes of people close to us.
Worth mentioning that refined oil products explode more readily than crude oil.
No matter how much Saudi Arabia is an ally of the US, they will more than take advantage of hiking up oil prices if you start messing with general OPEC production, aka Russian production. USA and EU know what's up. Yes, you can bomb Russian production capability all you like, but more than likely of saving Ukraine, that is going to have an effect of domestic strife due to oil prices. And oil prices don't just mean a bigger bill at the pump. Everything is transported and produced using oil, which means, everything skyrockets. See how long the people support Ukraine then. China is also acting as an economic and diplomatic buffer between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which means USA has nothing to offer Saudi Arabia on the front of national security any more. West is in a stun lock, and unfortunately, Russia is abusing that stun lock to land grab Ukraine. The situation is entirely in Russian control because USA has to play hostilities with China and Iran. Antagonizing China and breaking all deals with Iran was the biggest mistake of USA because it forced these countries into tightening cooperation with each other rather than the West.
@@user-dm7ql4sh3z I support Ukraine unconditionally and would accept any price hikes whatsoever in anything I consume if it meant preventing further murder at russia's hands. Thinking otherwise makes you a despicable human being imo.
@@user-dm7ql4sh3z Rather give that money to saudi arab than russia. They are less dangerous to world peace.
@@ffff7164 They're a pretty close contender. They're one of the biggest reason for the rise of militant Islamist movements over the past 50 years not to mention their countless proxy wars with Iran.
@user-dm7ql4sh3z that doesn't make any sense. Why would a 10% increase in oil prices make prices skyrocket? It should lead to maybe a 1% increase in prices. Saudi Arabia just wants to make money and they'll raise prices whenever they can. If Russia can't afford to invade, eu doesn't need to find Ukraine
Some of the wells in permafrost if halted, and the crude freezes, the well must be redrilled that takes a very long time, and in the past, that was with German or other foreign nationals help and equipment.
Excellent point. Iirc, a lot of Siberian crude goes through extensive pipelines to the refineries. Shutting down those pipelines can cause them to freeze, causing irrevocable damage that likely requires both materials the Russians lack, and/or the technical know-how of the foreign oil companies that all left Russia at the start of the war.
@@istantinoplebullconsta642 i think that would be for later right now its all refined stuff
I wouldn't put all _that_ much stock in the idea that Russia lacks expertise. Russians are capable people, despite what their leadership might indicate at times, and even if they're lacking that specific expertise they have allies such as Iran with plenty of knowledge on the subject and could be tapped to provide training and other assistance. It might delay the rebuilding of the first couple refineries as Russia goes about organizing all of that, but it's (probably) not the kind of game-ending "gotcha" that a lot of commentators like to claim.
@@altrag yes but the capable ones are in Ukraine charging across open fields in Chinese made golf carts.
@@DanW-nk7sn > the capable ones are in Ukraine charging across open fields
Russia's a big nation. Throwing a million people into the meat grinder and another half million or so fleeing conscription is still only around 1% of their population, and the Soviet-era engineers would mostly have been aged out of the conscription in the first place.
Losing 1% of your workforce (well probably more like 2-3% as not all of those 140ish million total citizens are working-age and able-bodied) is certainly a hit to your production capacity, but its not a breaking amount - especially when the nation has been rejigged into a so-called "wartime economy" aka you work when, where and on what the government tells you or else, if they deem your skills relevant to improving their ability to do mass murder.
Great video. I think you missed one big point:
Russian vehicles as well as fighter jets don't run on crude oil. Hitting refineries reduces the capabilities to produce a critical product required for war.
And if they want to keep up the intake for the army, they have to ration refined products in the general population. Which in turn brings the effects of war closer to the russian population.
And if they want to avoid that, they have to import refined products which is quite difficult due to the mentioned bottleneck, the sanctions and - it simply costs.
Agree 💯%
That's what I was thinking
Well that is true, but refined oil comes from crude, so I don’t think it’s a differentiator between hitting crude vs refined.
@@matthewreynolds4382 I didn't mean it's a difference. It's just a very important reason on why hitting the infrastructure in general. He talked about money and how it inflicts heavy damage on the industry and economy etc. And this here is a very important additional reason.
And it isn't the hit to the consumer that's as important as the potential hit to the transportation sector. The consumer can start ca-pooling. Trucking companies can't.
i would say its worth mentioning that a refinery is also a lot more expensive and harder to repair than a pumping station!!!
But its not impossible!!!
@@u2beuser714 not impossible sure but a refinery is incredibly expensive
Leaving aside the environmental issues, if you can set the well on fire, the cost of re establishing it as a productive oil source increases greatly. Remember the Iraqi oil fields blazing for months. The Texas based oil well fire fighters are hardly likely to rush to put out Putin's oil well fires!
I wanted to watch the "Oil Repair Problem" video you referred to, but was unable to find it.
My daughter is a chemical engineer and has designed chemical plants and her husband is an operator at a refinery. I asked them how long it would take to rebuild or repair a refinery that was heavily damaged.
The refinery is in the process of renovating one section of it and it had been over two years and it isn't finished yet. I have been in and out of such plants myself and marveled at the maze of piping, distillation and refining towers etc.
Their conclusion was "a long time!"
I’d be curious what your daughter thinks about the technological difficulty of building/repairing these facilities. Videos like this claim that it’s more difficult without access to western partners, but I find that difficult to believe. Everybody has been doing this for a century…
Here’s the video: Russia's Declining Oil Capacity and the Deeper Problems of Cartel Politics
ruclips.net/video/g3VoqnfVJYc/видео.html
I've worked in refineries for 30 years.
You can make a diesal plant in under two days by digging hole, running condenser piping and lighting a fire. See Syria.
It takes years to revamp a modern refinery to the current standards but in a pinch a country like Russia can be pumping diesel out in under a day.
@@Porphyrios1 BAD gasoline WILL destroy modern car engines.
The major components of a refinery are not parts that are on the shelf somewhere, they are built when ordered. During scheduled shutdowns, these components are ordered months in advance. These shutdowns are not scheduled. My understanding is that most of these parts are made by Western companies (UK, German, US, etc.), and they’re not filling any orders for the Russians. So, adding that to the most likely ignored safety mitigations that need to be addressed before restarting a newly rebuilt unit, and the Russians may be having some hard months ahead.
Ukraine has started to target power generators and the electrical grid too. So there are now thousands more targets. And with Ukraine producing approximately 3 million drones this year and receiving pledges of an additional one million drones, you can see Putin playing wack a mole while trying to defend the refineries.
Additionally, if Ukraine can eliminate or disable a significant number of refineries, Russia won’t have sufficient gas and diesel for military and civilian use. Not for the farmers to plant and harvest crops. This would be a disaster to the economy.
All good.
Wack a mole 😂😂
AND, Joe Blogs talks about the loss of revenue to feed the war machine. NO population likes inflation. Biden will find that out shortly.
Prroducing 3 million drones a year by Ukraine sound as stupid as claiming Kiev in 3 days by russians. I doubt they will produce 30.000
@@sajuente8235 It is but for a diferent reasone. The drones needed to hit the refinerey's are bit bigger and mare expensive and yes take a lot longer to make.
Making the really cheap shortrange ones is releaivly easy. If you just order the motor an electronic components you can easely put out a hunderd drones (in parts) on a decent 3 d printer. Ore thousands a day in a speciale factuary. So the number of 3 million drones is actually "easely" done. Now the real question is what can you with those kind of drones.
You missed two really important points
Why refineries and not oil rigs? Russia's oil refineries are almost entirely built by western companies using western parts. Russia was already having a problem keeping their refineries operating last year. It was reported that more than 40% of their refineries were shut-down for unscheduled maintenance as normal maintenance was skipped because of lack of equipment. Ukraine targeted the ones that weren't shut down. This means they will stay shut down for a long time
Second. Because of the maintenance issues above, last fall Russian farmers were not able to get enough diesel for the fall harvest. Putin had to ban diesel exports, but even that wasn't enough. The downtime for refineries along with the extra diesel demand for the war, left farmers out. It is almost certain that problem is going to be amplified this fall, not only do you have another year of stuff breaking because of deferred maintenance, but you now have all the extra refineries put out of action by the drone attacks. Banning exports is not going to be enough, this fall Putin is going to have to absolutely chose between harvesting crops or supplying the war.
👍
My suspicion why the US spoke out against Ukraine striking refineries was not because it affected world oil prices. It was because they were too successful. When strikes on refineries dominate the news, it can look like Ukraine is doing well enough on its own, it doesn’t need this latest US aid package. Better to double down and build long range weapons now and use them sparingly. When the aid package is signed, celebrate by unleashing all your drones at once. A blitz is also harder to defend. And fire and rescue teams are spread thin vs if just one refinery was struck at a time. And rebuilding the refineries is spread among a limited number of builders.
But also striking refineries means you need to disable all or almost all of them to affect the war. Russia is very good at doing without. Disable 20% of refineries and that affects exports. Disable 70% and you slow the internal economy. You need all or almost all disabled to starve tanks and trucks at the front lines.
Ukraine does incredible work innovating weapons and systems. If they invent a new drone, try it in battle, see if it works, then mass produces them, that gives the other side more time to come up with countermeasures, find ways to mitigate losses (like importing fuel from Belarus and the Stan countries, and make the same weapons and use them against Ukraine. It’s better test them at home, then mass produce hundreds of them and release them all at once in one night or a few days before they can figure out what happened.
This also has “shock value” that affects Russia’s politicians. They are the ones who get the most say if they continue the war or stop. They won’t be easily convinced to quit when this was planned for decades. So a few shocking defeats are more likely to disrupt their thinking, to shift their paradigm from, Ukraine is smaller than us we will win to Ukraine is winning, we better cut our losses. It’s unlikely Ukraine will storm the Kremlin and get Russia to capitulate. So the approach that ends the war sooner (and saves lives on both sides) is if like in chess Russia sees they will get a check mate in ten moves, then resigns, rather than keeps playing until they just have the king left.
What are the chances a few oil refinery engineers would be willing to get paid extra to go to these disabled refineries and help rebuild them. What are the chances a few manufacturers of the needed parts would be willing to smuggle them into Russia for higher than the usual price?
Striking more refineries more often would take care of that. But a lot need to be disabled for this to be effective for the war.
Small note. You said the sanctions caused russia to need more ships for crude but I did not see you specifically mention that they were forced to shift away from the massive PIPELINE network linked to europe.
Because that network has also a limited capacity, the issue remains the same
@@Taletad my point was that he mentioned the increased need for ships but didnt mention the reason was that they were shifting away from the pipelines. The way its explained in the video missed that little bit of context.
Common knowledge must not always be repeated.
@@moseszero3281 in a short format you can’t talk about everything
There are a lot of elements missing from his explanation, but the gist of it is good enough
Russia is still supplying a large quantity of oil and gas to Europe, their economy grew 3% last year so who is telling the truth ?
Finally a video that distinguish between crude and refinery products. So many in media can't distinguish between the two. Good Job.
One thing considering. Russia only exported 15% of its refined gasoline, rest of it went to domestic use. By destroying refineries Ukraine has created a situation where Russian demand for gasoline is greater than its refining capacity. Thus people driving gasoline cards inside Russia will have to deal with greater prices. (For diesel situation is different unless the war has increased demand significantly.)
This will add to the expected inflation caused by russia now having a war economy.
My cat really loved the intro lfmao, thanks for the great content as always!
Your opening animation is awesome! :-) Great way to get a point across. What would also be interesting is a temporally accurate version of just the dots, so you could see the exponential nature of those occurrences, especially with the up front year or so where basically nothing at all happened inside Russia. That exponential rate is going to continue, and that is the path to success, IMO. Kill their ability to fund and fight the war before they kill yours, plain and simple.
One thing I found that was interesting in that animation was the overall triangular nature of the attacks, often largely spaced between individual strikes. Part of that is just hitting important targets in important areas more than once, but even then, it was interesting. A way to 'keep them guessing' I suspect, or to allow some level of attention to lapse back down before another close strike.
I don't know what was going on in those couple of videos, but you seem to be back! Excellent analysis, and video. I learned a few things. THIS is why I watch your channel. Since I bitched on those videos, I figure I should commend when you do a good job, bringing value to the table. I had thought through some of this previously, but you really gave some food for thought.
I saw someone present an analysis on why the Israelis struck Iran where they did that was also interesting. There, very little damage was done, purposely, but they struck the very SAM sites designed to protect areas where both nuclear and military assets lay, high value type targets, in the general larger sense. It was a very pointed message. They also took out some of the F14s, which was more pragmatic, and a target that would cause them some of the most difficultly. Going against an F4 is a joke. Not so with and F14, that is still a very capable aircraft, even today. Not F35 level, most certainly, but quite a serious and destructive weapon, with somebody competent at the helm.
Cope cope cooOOOoopee
More outstanding work! I’m very thankful for a credible source, comprehensive, low bias information combined with an effective, efficient communication style. Keep it up!
William ! Such crude language 😂
I know real slick humor
Tanks, APC’s, ships, planes, etc don’t run on crude….bonus is citizens don’t drive on crude either so destroying refining hits two birds with one stone….
Tractors, generators, & ag equipment too.
Yes, Russian crude coming from Siberia must be shipped abroad or refined in western Russia where it is consumed. From well heads to refineries, thousands of kilometers of pipelines are used to deliver crude for refining. Why? Russian infrastructure lacks roads and rail lines to efficiently deliver the crude. But that is not the critical factor: crude oil is not volatile like gasoline. Crude has a flash point above 40 degrees C (+100 degrees F), while gasoline and other refined fuels have a flash point at -45 degrees C (-49 degrees F). That is why tanker trucks must take paved roads to deliver fuels to end users. You are right, the refineries are the choke point for the Russian economy and their war effort. Destroy the distillation process in refineries, and the balance of the facility is worthless. Then, without any storage capacity, the oil backs-up in pipelines as creates a crude constipation effect. In recent reports, Russia has imported gasoline and diesel from Belarus refineries to make up for their refinery losses. This is a high risk strategy as fuel trucks on open roads lack any protection from Russian dissidents as well as Ukrainian special forces. As Russia exits winter hibernation, the flow of refined fuels will increase and create new targets of opportunity that are safe distances from population centers. If targeted correctly, a maybe few strategic bridges, tunnels or truck depots may also be included in the logistics package.
What I have been asking myself is why Ukraine does not attack the pipeline infrastructure. Disabling a pumping station for oil or natural gas will also prevent the stuff from reaching refineries or households or export customers, stretch out air defense , and of course make pumps stop.
Households aren't the target for the AFU. Also, they don't need to hit anything, because sanctions make sure they will just disintegrate on their own.
I believe it’s a cost benefit analysis.
Saying that,there’s nothing wrong with what you’re saying if it keeps vlad off balance.
Maybe because it’s more difficult to disable a pipeline than a facility???
Further away, and less expensive/probably easier to repair. A pump is simpler than an entire refinery.
Pete Zeihan had previously said that if the pumps go offline, they will never restart. The way I understand it, due to temp and consistency of the oil, if it stops pumping, it'll gunk up and clog the well heads and shafts. ... (Did that sound dirty?) ... To get them started again the orcs would need to drill out the wells, which is something they were _never_ able to do on their own. So, no more oil ... ever.
Thanks William. As always very informative and well documented. 🙏
Another great one. Thank you for all of your hard work explaining the events around this war. Additionally, your humor is noted. I enjoy laughing at your puns.
Thank you William. Appreciate you efforts and insights.
Always presenting informative and provocative topcs, making them easy for 'us mere mortals' to comprehend. I was expecting to see more 'lines on maps' but maybe the cool intro covered that? Thanks for this!
In refineries there is a lot of sensitive gear like turbocompressors which they will not be able to replace within two weeks. Its important to strike the proper place behind the factory fence...
Russia is in a dilemma here because it's told these place to get their own security for these facilities, except Russia has a shortage of men considering the ones who have left or been killed, and they don't have enough people to even fill regular jobs and have to pull people for their military industry which also means a shortage of men on the battlefield.
This is a really good strategy for Ukraine. It affects the price of gasoline on the world market by creating a shortage, more so than the Middle Eastern conflict. and drives up cost for the rest of the world. Once again that's a good thing because maybe they get more help to get this over and done with.
Thanks for the vid!
Thank You for the vids. I appreciate the content and presentation, from USAF Vet. Best regards.
Another great Video. Well done Sir!
Peter Zeihan is also fond of mentioning that some of these pumps you can literally not "turn off" without breaking them, might be another effect.
Great analysis, thank you! I learnt so much. Hope it sticks.
Exactly! by targeting the refineries it leaves a backlog that keeps backing up. If Russia can't refine the crude, it's far less valuable to them, add on to that, that crude exports are down... even more of a backlog. Ukraine know exactly what they're doing, and doing it with remarkable effect.
Ty for the great analysis and content.
Excellent episode. I learned an enormous amount. Thank you.
Someone may have pointed this out already but hitting the refineries not only hurts Russia's local economy but also Russia's ability to move tanks, troop carriers, etc in and around Ukraine.
What’s up will? Nice lines on maps you got there
Thanks for explaining.
Thank-you Mr Spaniel, outstanding as always.
Long live lignes sur les cartes! ;-)
As always a detailed, fascinating and educational analysis! I get the latest news and learn at the same time.
Thanks for the update! I've been wondering how significant the damage from the refinery attacks have been.
Trying to cut off the crude supply is difficult as it's the large network of oil fields to the North and East. Also the Refined products reflect the VALUE ADDED end of the product spectrum. Attacking the higher value products is a way of essentially not only attacking the substances but the energy and systems used to make them.
There is a cost in man and material that is lost too.
Respectfully, the main advantage to hitting refineries is that tanks and airplanes and supply trucks run on refined oil products.
Civilian life is also impacted by fuel prices. Russians may not be as sensitive as Americans but I doubt they are immune.
If Ukraine can force Russia to import fuel, the war is soon over.
I don't think or have the ability to know how close Russia might be to being a net importer of refined petroleum products, I assume it is quite a ways off, but they did stop exporting for "6 months starting March 1", so they are at least aware of the risk.
I'm also not clear on where they could import from, obviously Iran, N Korea, and China might want to help, but is the infrastructure there?
Hopefully with the just approved new support from the US Ukraine can hit Russia everywhere it counts, give them dilemmas not just problems and move those lines on maps.
@@TheCudmaster on the contrary, russia is already importing refined products from Belarus
@@vitaliitomas8121Belorusian refinery was created and updated mostly because it's additional supply for R if more refinery products needed like while yearly equipment checking.
Excellent video by the way!
Ty for the content.
Always love your knowledge and easy to learn information
Great summary William.
Great commentary. Thank you.
Awesome job, I enjoy your point of view
This was an amazing analysis. Thank you!!!
Thank you for the great video, it clears up a lot👍🏼👍🏼🙏🙏💯
Good job as usual William.
Exceptional insight and logic. Brilliant analysis. Many thanks
Excellently-done video. Subscribed
Welcome 🎉
I normally listen to William's videos while doing something else, so i don't see what's in screen for half of the time
So when 6:11 happened, I genuinely thought that William added an image of Plankton from Spongebob, and once I saw that it wasn't the case, I felt like it was wasted potential
Good video, by the way!
Love it!... "If you want it, you'll have to make the pilgramage to the plankton graveyard!" 🤣🤣👍
There's a whole debate about having a Privatized Oil vs a nationalized Oil Industry.
Had the US kept the oil underground regardless of the pump site as a national resource, then we might now be in a similar conditional as NORWAY with their original STATOIL program controlling a significant portion of the production and processing, using foreign companies for assistance and giving them a share of the revenue, but not selling it all to private companies and simply collecting a Federal Land Rent from the drilling company.
Sure most of Norway's oil was offshore so no individual land owner rights were violated. Plus Norway has a history of shared projects due to the rugged coastline and the need to rely on neighbor settlements for shipping and other resources. Norway is not a hospitable geography and so the people had to rely on trade from one town to the next along the coastline to make the region united and successful.
Thank you!
I've got two quibbles with this... first, when you say their options for selling it abroad are limited, but mention India and China... those are some large markets, and second, there are pipelines heading east to China, and attacking those may have other geopolitical consequences.
China & India aren't interested in buying refined oil products. They prefer to buy crude, and do the refining themselves.
Great job as always !😊😊😊😊😊😊
Thank you! That was quite informative.
Great Video!
Btw…. I love all of your videos and look forward to every new one. Lines on maps!!!!!!
Always appreciate your good work
Interesting analysis.
Great video full of very good knowledge and food for thought thank you
Thanks! NNTR.
Thank you!
Very interesting
Thank you
Great video 9/10, lines on maps weren’t mention enough 😊
Casualties don't just reduce a nations pool of recruits, it lowers the total pool of combat knowledge available. In WW2, the US intentionally removed combat veterans from combat to preserve that precious (even existential) knowledge.
Nice one
Another point not mentioned is that all oil refineries are unique; it has to do with the topography of the locale chosen for the refinery. But the main point is that it's possible to set up an oil extraction operation fairly quickly (it won't be as efficient or profitable without sanctioned western parts, but it's doable), but to rebuild a trashed refinery, you'd want custom replacement parts made from scratch as the main part (distillation column) is not standardized. Again, it's not rocket science and it's possible for Russia to make those replacement distillation columns, but it will take a long time and a lot of effort with the possibility that Russian-made replacements won't fit, forcing them to start from scratch again.
I bet the video will be relevant a year from now. The explanations are awesome.
This was a very informative video. It is hard to get serious information about the war, but I think you did very well. You get a like and a subscriber.
Great video!
Thanks.
Always inciteful 👍
always a pleasure to learn with you! Thank you!
thank you for making me smarter!
My understanding is that the Russian refinery capacity came from one US citizen, the senior Koch, Fred, father of the infamous Koch brothers.
Good Republic Capitalist.
Thanks
Nice analysis
Refineries also represent hard to replace hardware due to the unique nature of hardware like fractionating columns which ramps up the cost of repairs to attempt to bring the refinery site back online, technically you struggle to 'turn off a refinery' due to low crude. You have to go through a shut down process or just lower the thru-put but you'd still want to have a 24 hour staffing regime
Exactly what I was thinking… let them pump up oil, but stop them from refining it
-> If they cannot refine themselves, they need to sell cheaply, bc they don’t have enough storage facilities and cannot stop pumping (or the well will go „dry“), which helps US/EU with energy costs
-> at the same time Russia will have high/increasing costs for buying refined products from abroad at world market prices and with additional shipping costs, and/or face shortages
-> refinery equipment is more expensive and more difficult to source right now
-> all the other reasons the video pointed out 😅
Ukraine says "That's some nice lines on maps ya got there. Be a shame if anything were to happen to 'em!" right before shifting its strategy to targeting refineries.
Also, they have no reason to stop. Russia is defending poorly, and the USA hasn't been properly supporting their frontline operations. There's no reason to focus all their efforts into charging Russia's strength, its trenches. Refineries are a weak point, and if Russia finally covers them, Ukraine will find another. Russia's made a hell of an enemy.
Daniel, I think Ukraine HAS stopped hitting these refineries. A few weeks ago they were targetting them every day. Now, for the last two weeks, they haven't hit one. I wonder what the reason might be? Do you think it might have something to do with Biden's election campaign and the risk that higher oil prices might have for him? Just a thought.
I know the US is worried about rising oil prices, but I still think most of them asking Ukraine not to hit refineries is just political theater for the global stage. I bet what they say behind closed doors is quite a bit different.
Oil and gas wells are capped all the time. It doesn't damage the well. The equipment might rust, maybe pipeline pumping stations would be costly to restart, but the oil and gas will be unharmed.
Always appreciate your good work.
amazing insight! As a South African its good to finally see something about this war being shown in the media.
What does being a south African have to do with that?
The war in Ukraine is not in the media? 😮
@@sg23148it's pretty obvious, can't you see
And how did you avoid torent of media coverage? Albiet western media, since freedom of speach banned RU media.
@davidturner4076This war has been one of the biggest propaganda fests in my lifetime, unless your sleeping beauty you could not have failed to miss this!!!!
Nice thanks
Some ships can be redeployed from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea via the inland canal system. These are typically the smaller ships such as corvettes, but the corvettes are doing much of the Kalibr missile attacks anyway. Some larger ships, such as the Ropucha landing craft, are at the theoretical limits of lock capacity but I suspect that due to lack of maintenance, the canals themselves have silted up too much for them to pass.
VERY,,, INTERESTING 🤔
There is also the downstream impact of reduced refined oil for civilian, manufacturing (petroleum based products), transportation (trucks for food and other products) and obviously military needs. The productivity of a economy depends on refined oil
11:40 For the Machine is immortal
Glory to the Omnissiah!
“The difference between birds & refineries…”
Ooh! Ooh! I know this one! Birds can reproduce themselves much faster over the course of a year than refineries can! :D
“…is that once a bird is dead, it stays dead.”
Oh…. That too. :[
Thanks for the insight! One thing I would like to point out, which should also be obvious...
Hitting a refinery is merely temporarily limiting the income stream of Russia. The pumped oil will just be processed later. Meanwhile many oil producers (BRICS) are allies to Russia and they benefit from higher prices which means they can also support Russia more. The oil importers on the other hand lose money (Europe) which is probably why USA has asked for Ukraine not to hit those targets.
From my perspective targeting the oil refineries of Russia is mostly an annoyance. If they actually were critical, you would see much more defenses in those locations.
A far bigger vulnerability of Russia and China is if somehow Europe would be able to internally create cheaper energy (nuclear power) and improve their means of production (moving facilities from China back to the West). But the West seems ignorant to these weakpoints, so the war probably continues in Russias favour.
One additional note is that Russia probably has some fuel reserves for their military but with refineries going down and a major war happening they'll probably be eating into those reserves. If they lose enough production then they'll eventually be forced to choose between fuelling their war machinery and exporting it for cash which will have a direct impact on their air power either way. If they cut mil usage then planes get less time in the air or if they cut exports then there's less Shahed drones from Iran. Both of these mean less attacks on Ukrainian cities, and enough of a hit means easier conditions for ground troops.
Ukraine is staying away from the wells because that would distress the West that Ukraine is dependent on. Russia is still paying for the war by selling oil. If Ukraine were to get the wells burning, Russia probably doesn't have the personnel or equipment available to put out the fires. The refinery attacks have the benefit of immediately impacting Russian ability to actually fuel their war machine and normal economic activity (people riding a bus to the factory). Russia has banned fuel exports and banned Belarus from exporting to anywhere besides Russia. This also puts Russia in the potential situation of having to buy more expensive fuel after selling cheaper oil.
This blowing Russia’s bottleneck is Ukrainian dark humor in my eyes.