Russia's Deterrence Problem: Why Moscow Was Attacked and What the Future Holds
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- Опубликовано: 28 май 2024
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The recent Moscow theater attack is just the latest case of the increasing role of militant groups in international politics. This video takes a deep dive on how groups use violence to advertise their brands. Various factors made Russia an attractive place to commit an attack. If the Kremlin fails to respond, the situation will only grow worse for Russia.
0:00 The Rise of Militant Competition
1:44 Advertising with Violence Overview
3:25 What Makes a Target Attractive
6:49 Why Russia Was Attacked
12:56 Russia's Deeper Problem with the Ukraine Distraction
The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.
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On mobile, the title reads as “How Moscow was attacked and what the fu…” and I had to laugh cause i imagined a very different title than what we got!
"How Moscow was attacked and what the fuck is Putin doing about it."
@@SteveInLava more like :Why Moscow was attacked and why Putin did this to his own people"
Adjust your aspect ratio? It wasn't as dirty on my screen. I only got the "the" part.
“How Moscow was attacked and what the fuck Vladimir PutItInTheAss is screaming about this time”
@@Syndr1and miss gems like that? Absolutely not!
Hi Dr. Spaniel!
Or as they say, "you can have your books about geopolitical strategy and read them too".
Huge missed opportunity for for me there.
you can have your Fabergé egg and eat it too.
I hope your books are edible and readable, in that order
Another weird effect when Russia gets attacked is War Thunder turns off ingame chat for a while.
"guys ffs don't leak top secret docs again"
they did what?! But how am I supposed to leak my top secret military documents now?
The reason they turn it off is because of the rule "No politics in chat" because of the main rule "Stay friendly/civilized" because of the fact it's a game and people go in-game TO discuss politics and verbally attack the other side, whichever side they're on, instead of playing the game.
Then there is the frequent misidentifying of one's side and the eagerness of everybody to dogpile anyone who's on the "wrong" side, whichever side that is.
That said, Gaijin headquarters was Hungarian for a while already, so it has nothing to do with being founded by/in Russia.
@@Yezpahr is Gaijin fully Hungarian owned? If so, then that makes me feel a bit nice cuz I'm Hungarian:)
It's so the Russian users don't get any ideas of talking about what actually happened, despite what their government says.
7:50 imagine being so bad that even taliban thinks you are extreme
Imagine being so bad ISIS think you are extreme
“There is always a bigger fish”~ Captain Titus from Star Trek
This comment would have been relevant before traces of seven different men were found in a young deceased Ukrainian girl at the start of the full maternity bombing campaign
It means nothing, groups always say their enemies are too extreme. I bet ISIS-K say that the Taliban are too extreme. They probably say Switzerland is too extreme.
Imagine being so bad ISIS thinks you are extreme
There is a saying in the antiterrorism world, "When you are hungry, it is foolish to hunt a tiger when there are plenty of sheep to be had". Being a hardened and aware target makes terrorists, criminals, and active assailants more likely to seek easier prey as they conduct surveillance.
Indeed. The difference between irregular guerillas and professional uniformed militaries.
Even just giving the impression to be a more hardened target then alternatives will deter opertunistic trouble seekers. The TSA probably being a textbook example of this.
Over the years there have been so many examples of it being completely vulnrable to investigative journalists who operate mostly within the confines of the law and with a mostly innocent mindset.
Imagine what a evil mind with no regard for the law or safety willing to diligently search and exploit any gap in the system could achieve.
The draconian measures implemented did put an instant stop to hijackings by random weakly organised organisations that happened pretty regularly up to 2001. It suceeded in creating the idea that it is no longer worth it for these groups to seek attention in this matter and pick other ways to reach their goals.
These measures have never resulted in activly preventing a real attempt as far as i know. Which leads many people to the conclusion that it is all just useless overreach. But since there also never has been an attempt that actually succeded in 25 years it pretty much means that these measures made it no longer an attractive enough option to even concider. Ultimatly perfectly achieving the exactly the goal that it was created for.
Public perception is a weird and difficult thing for governing bodies.
A very good example of this is the y2k bug for people old enough to remember it.
It was made into this huge deal that was talked about for years to everyones anoyance. And in the end nothing ended up happening at the moment supreme. Leading to people to this day saying it was just a huge scare campaign or some perfect example of government disfunction.
It is a perfect example of why government can never win in the eyes of the public.
If no action was taken and was just ignored it would have resulted in loads of unforseen concequenses and masive disruption. Leading to everyone rightfully blaming government to be incompetent for letting something like that happening.
But when government does what it should do and take action, warns everyone far in advance of the danger and pushes industry to take things seriously and take action to avoid desaster. And by doing so solves the problems and makes sure nothing happens and citizens suffer no disruption it is accused of fear mongering because none of the desasters it warned for and that it was trying to prevent actually happened.
To this day almost everyone i hear about it feels it was some silly hyped up media frenzy to scare people that turned out to be nothing because everything went smoothly.
In reality things went so smoothly because a massive effort and financial investment was made over the years leading up to the year 2000. It was a big deal and all that presure and attention forced especially managemnt in corperations to take things seriously instead of simply ignoring it departments until things break as so often happens in large organisations.
It really is sad that a perfect example of the amazing things that can be achieved for the common good on a global scale by focussed messaging, cooperation by industry, government and leadership and science and educational institutions is treated as a failure.
The whole world came together to solve a systemic problem that ingrained itself across the entire economy decades ago and was so succesful in that effort that people actually have to resort to complaining about it being simply to succesful in solving this global threat.
Anyway, this is a real anoyance for me personally. This is one of the biggest achievements of the world in my lifetime and all the wrong lessons have been learned from it because things where simply done to well and it was more succesful for it's own good.
While in my opinion it should be seen as confirmation that we together do have the ability to solve the big issues and problems we face together if we decide to make it a priority and commit to solving them.
It sadly also shows that governments across the world can without drama or conflict solve problems quickly, efficiently and smoothly. But only if these problems are a threat to the economy, their large corperations and by extention the possibility of it causing public unrest and chaos if it actually wants to..
Making it very frustrating that a lot of problems and issues existing for the public at large that still exist after sometimes many decades are never solved. Instead they keep being used as perpetual political campaign tools.
Major issues exist not because of a lack of solutions, but simply because of a lack of willingness to actually fix them.
I mean, men can be put on the moon within 8 years when they can barely put a footbal in orbit using ww2 rockets if the will is there. But a homeless crisis can not be contained in 20 years while spending billions. Or a drug epidemic can not be prevented from escalating out of control after 10 years and mountains of cash? Especially when there are countless examples from around the world where countries did succesfully managed to tackle these issues with less resources.
It's all just a lack of will, not a lack of possibilities..
Sorry for the rant lol. Peace.
So you're saying... it's much easier to attack Russia because their national security is bad?
@@rogerk6180 No this is completely wrong. Even countries that barely invested anything to fixing this y2k bug like you know... Russia had very few if any problems when it reached January 1st 2000 because the bug was indeed a hype job
I'm surprised how "mild" the reaction by Russia has been to the terrorist attack.
Are you really? After two years you are really surprised? Think again
how do you comment 5 minutes after the 15 minute video is released? how much did you watch? not upset, just confused.
@@danstermeisterTrying to be first 🤣
@@danstermeister Because it wasn't what the video is about, the comment was about the attack as a whole
Define "mild" i mean they already deport undocumented migrants and they are in the midst of a war. You can only divert so many resources
Honestly, it has been shocking to see how weakly the Russians have responded. I expected fire and brimstone rhetoric and vows of retaliation, and instead, the Russian government almost seemed like they didn't care.
Almost like it was pre-planned? Like how the FSB were caught trying to blow up an apartment prior to the second Chechen war?
That reaction would have happend if it was Ukraine that did it. But "it's just Islamic Extremist Terrorists". So they are quiet, as this event just shows Russian weakness.
They aren't even giving them the luxury of rhetoric. Tajiks are apparently now the ultimate pariah, though
which speaks for the the theory of a false flag attack.
They probably planned it. Why would they care? LOL
14:11 In Italian it would be "To have a drunken wife and a full barrel" , we are unnaturally optimists afterall.
I think I like that expression.
In Danish the expression translates to "blow and hold flour in your mouth", which would certainly be impressive, but I don't know why you'd want a mouth full of flour.
Sounds like a party to me!
Why the wife? To stop her nagging? 🙂
@@N.i.c.k.H more of an allegory of wanting too much (in my region we also have "piss a bit shorter" as "lower your expectations" :D)
William Spaniel ThanksMuch for posting !
Thanks for the update.
Thanks William, as always, fantastic content. I'm envious of your students. 👍
You missed a golden opportunity with the close ups of the food being prepared, to zoom out and reveal Prigozhin....
Tx for the info
Thanks for the always great in-depth vidoes!
Mr. Spaniel, again you delivered a very informative analysis about what is going on.
Thank's a lot for sharing. :)
Thank you!
Timely video and upload. Good work as always, Dr. Spaniel.
Thanks William
But where were the Spetznatz and the special forces that handle these kind of attacks?
Drinking?
There was also a troop base only a few minutes down the road, wonder what these guys were doing for an hour 🤷🏻♀️
Russia has many saboteurs from within im pretty sure they were stretched at that point you know..protecting oil depots and all
Russia has many partisan activity from within im pretty sure they were stretched at that point you know..protecting oil depots and all
Short answer: Likely increasing crop yields in Ukrainian fields.
Spetznaz no longer exist, they have been wiped out, one regiment took 98% casualties and the other 90%, Russian commanders were using them as regular infantry in Bakhmut and other hot-spots because their regular infantry was so poor.
6:45 we really gotta appreciate the effort that goes into making it rhyme lmao
Thanks. I didn't realize that I had the first two in the script rhyming until I said them, and then I stopped recording and rewrote the script to do the other two.
😂😂😂😂
@@Gametheory101 W moment
Thank you.
Moscow can’t even stop a fly in Putins soup.
The fly can't reach the soup.
The table is too long to fly end-to-end.
Yet they stoped 44 ukrianian drones that attacked deep within southern russia with nothing but cosmetic damage to civilian infrastructure from debris.
From released videos it can be seen how low the drones need to fly to avoid radar and they still got caught
They literaly stoped a ukrianian attack of 44 drones in south russia today but ok
@@Silver_Prussian yet they couldn't stop moscow from being hit? Like multiple times?
@@angellara7040 and what did they hit ? Civilian buildings and caused merely cosmetic damage, then there the attack on oil refineries with drones that are smaller than a human at a facilities that are simply enormous, facilities specifically made to handle explosions and fire. You can see pictures from these attacks and the results they achieve nothing. Why do they even try ?
thanks
We, Bulgarians truly value your work, cheers to you and that homie featured! However, me personally do like lines on maps 😆
Thank you so much! Make sure you watch all the way to the end next time. :)
+1 proud Bulgarian Lines on Maps fan club member here
Great stuff.
Putin played hard into the terrorists hands. You'd think a former KGB operator would realize he needs to split his focus, not hyper focus on Ukraine.
He's become delusional. Hardly a good leader anymore despite his professional bg
@@luciusrex isn't it that due to how old he is? Heck, he is a bajillion years in power, His KGB background would be worthless at this time
@@AlexLangerak hmm tbf, you'd be surprised how older adults retain a lot of their theoretical expertise. I had a patient one time who had dementia and a kind of psychosis but could explain cellular biology to us when we assessed her. Obviously this patient would have done (objectively) poorly as well as a leader of a country but would still have likely been a better leader than delusion scum like "st peter the great wanna-be" putin.
@@AlexLangerak that doesn't mean it's useless or irrelevant. People are people, people have a tendency to react and respond to things in a particular way. Knowing things and applying those things to new things you're being introduced to is a type of wisdom. Everyone should know by now that terrorism left to it's own and ignored is the wrong move.
He never was any good at his job. That's why he was stationed in a relatively 'easy' country - Eastern Germany
Another good video, thank you. There is a point that you slightly referenced but did not specifically identify, that contributed to Russia's failure to stop, or even identify, the Crocus Hall attack. Ergo, the FSB and the National Guard are not tasked with protecting Russia from attack, they are purely for the protection of Putin and his circle from the people of Russia. FSB and NG are too busy arresting dissenters and and breaking up gatherings of three to do other stuff.
Just like the Checka/NKVD/KGB before them. They don't exist to protect the state, they exist to protect the leadership cabal, much like the Praetorian Guard of Rome.
The attack still came from within Russia/Socialism. While ISIS is a Kremlin creation to "fight them abroad" to get into liberated formerly Socialist Iraq and around, not all are FSB controlled. I guess, these attackers belong to the oligarchs, who pressured Putin to start the war for their enrichment, but they don't like Putin, because he also controls them against the other Socialist branches like Secret Services and Army. That's why the whole police get's "corrupted" from within from time to time, and Prigoshin could run around freely, too. ISIS claiming it (after KGB orders) doesn't say anything. Their escape path was also towards Belarus, and from there to Poland to Western Europe many Russian militant "refugees" came since 2015, so it's the same way.
I always enjoy your videos William. It might be an idea to introduce and summarise these rebel groups as some people will even struggle to match the emblem to the group to the cause.
Thanks!
Thank you!
Do you have a folder named "Happy Putin clipart cropped"?
It's actually titled "Putin Binoculars" because I noticed the Kremlin really likes publishing photos with them, but it long since expanded to a catchall.
Excellent video, as usual
The books are great thanks from Fort Washington Md
I cannot eat dinner without your videos man, shout out to you for preventing my food from going cold
Awesome 😎
I seriously don't see the advantage of having an egg and an eggshell too. Egg shells have pretty low value for anything other amending soil.
They protect plants from slugs
I really ejoy your work, William. It helps me understand the world better and is entertaining at the same time. Take care Slava Ukraini
Great video
Yours are the only videos I watch as soon as I see them uploaded. More great content. Thank you.
Are there any plans for audiobook versions of your books? I do a lot of listening to podcasts and audiobooks during hikes and vacation and whatnot.
Good video
1:53 How much of terrorist violence is the leaders thinking "got to do something before the militant foot soldiers replace me with someone less prudent?"
11:58 Same as in the months prior to 9/11.
You are quiet correct.. congrats
3:55 Shout out Luigi Galleani
This is such a a dangerous time.
I know it’s really not, but around 3:20, one of the militant groups’ logo looks like the US capitol 🤔
If I had to guess, it looks like a religious building (I’m thinking a mosque based on what I know).
Played poker at the 'Casino Lignes les Cartes' last night.
As an LoM reg, I just played my natural game... ;-)
William Always a pleasure to listen to your video's. It has always been an honor to tell people about your channel and others like it like Joe Blogs. You both are simply amazing. Have you ever thought to make a video with him.
My unit of lowly level guards for Opsec reasons I will not give out the names. In the MPLS International Airport. We captured an Al'Quadia Scout. TSA and the Airport Police had no Idea what the person was up to. My guards got him in about 3 minutes and he was sent from what I was briefed on to a nice Caribbean Island. Cuba people may have heard of it. Also prior to 9/11/2001 months earlier we had Scouts in Mpls. Downtown. They happened to get into a skyscraper and take pictures from the building into the heart of Mpls. MN.
Dang it Will, i loved orang soda.
The fact that Russia is trying to blame Ukraine for this just goes to show how crazy things are in that regime.
This is why I don't imagine anyone ever said "Consider, Oh Caliph, we can make the entire world press go to Saskatchewan."
The GLA is making it's move 😅
What scares me is at some point, the "big kids" are going to start holding them accountable for what's coming out of their borders... and that will get ugly.
You educate us on so many essential world issues. Organized, interesting and secular. well done. Thank you
Did you drink when you said 'Bab-al-Man dab?'
The FSB was so late because they were busy trying to find their old canisters of carfentenyl gas
The best way to not be attacked. Is to not attack people.
In France: "you can have the butter and the money for the butter"
10:05 "Legally as far as Russia is concerned"
I struggle to keep it in my brain that his first name isn't Daniel.
I dunno, I just can't, it just keeps slipping in there.
I think one thing that is missing, is that those actors of the hostile action against Russia does more who is available and wants to do an attack rather than planning an attack from outside the nation. They do more attacks of opportunity than a larger big picture.
William, have you ever considered analyzing historical organizations, such as Basque ETA or the IRA?
2:03 French around find out.
A comment for Algo's Rhythm.
Hi Will, do you think Ukraine is making China think twice about attacking Taiwan?
Personally, I think so, and you can laugh at me for the comparison, but think of it like world tension in hearts of iron. If world tensions are high, you're gonna think twice about starting a war when eyes are already on another, not to mention the support that can arrive the higher tensions get.
Russia did heed the warning; they took the opportunity to get their police and Rosgvardia out of the way of the attack!
Is this the lines on maps guy?
It’s that spaniel again!!!!
War feeds chaos. Politicians never accept that and opt to drag out wars so as not to make a "mistake" but the hesitation also creates mistakes.
This statement is now stitched into my memory. Thank you.
Typo in Subtitle: "tareget"
3:05
Missed oppuntunity to say "carbonated copies"
Dammit!
The book hawking is weird
"You could have the egg and the egg shell" Yeah, the egg is inside the shell you always have both, and why the fuck would I want the egg shell?
Has Russia retaliated against ISIS at all?
Why would they, if they ask Isis to help them to do it
Can they?
If You want to get trapped on how to answer a simple question complicated, you follow your academic approach William. But there is a really simple answer to that deliberately (!) designed complex formula: Strip yourself as a nation down to your own national strengths, foster your position, which, I admit, is not an easy task these days, then find partners. What would be your USP (Unique Selling Point) a such an initiative nation ? Individual's Freedom & Responsibility. So far, I have not found any partners for my ideas on the road of freedom., but I keep on searching, cause it is to my view the only attractive and rational model to current worldwide ongoing mess............If I am wrong, we all will ultimately fail a human beings .......... and that I know for sure ! Don't ask me why, but I do know. a bit more on general principles and constraints from those who really know.......and don't like Devil's design of human being on plant earth ! Period !!!!!!! 😉😉😉😉😉
In French we have the butter and the money for the butter
I guess the American term for that is “have your cake and eat it too”. I love learning different sayings like that of other places.
@@joanmikeska8484 I agree. The difference in values leads to some interesting takes on what is essentially the same theme or concept.
so im guessing your next video topic has been decided for you?
By all accounts, Russia is cracking down hard on their Muslim community, the ones that do lowest paid jobs in Moscow. Apparently they have been going in to the mosques on Friday prayer and detaining them, also preventing them from being Taxi drivers. Which has led to not being able to get grave diggers and Taxis in Moscow.
🇺🇸
13:59 Surely it's eat your cake *and then* have it too
It’s supposed to be but the saying got switched around centuries ago.
We all know that orange soda is the best.
"Cola, lemon-lime, and orange soda" BUT WHO'S WHAT?
The enemy of my enemy is my enemy.
In French: “avoir le beurre et l’argent du beurre” (to have the butter and the money for the butter).
Your perspective is much appreciated! I think I would disagree on a point you made towards the end.
ISIS-K is not much of a threat to Russia. It's just an annoying itch. Moscow controls the press, so they control the pain lever. You said they caused pain. Western media sources made much ado about it, but to Russians, 100 people in Moscow is a big terror attack by UA and the west. As we saw when the drones hit a wealthy suburb, people far from Moscow were cheering. To them, it was about f'ing time those folks paid for all of this. They'd like to see more of it. Think they care about 100 people in Moscow??? Lol. They don't care about their neighbors.
Russia needs to whip up the people and persuade them that Ukraine, US, and UK are the enemy, their security apparatus can handle any ISIS-K in-country. ISIS-K will not defeat Putler, but with help UA can.
A minor point. I only thought you might be giving the attack a weight it doesn't deserve.
Related: Many videos of Russians abusing Muslim captives, including the removal of an ear, humiliation, degradation. How does that play in the Caucasus's? What will Dagostani's think of this? How will it change Chechenya?
I suspect the 2 will cancel each other out. Any gains from the populace will be offset by loss of respect down south.
It could lead to more unrest, more partisan recruitment.
But I'm no expert. Just thinking out loud.
Regarding your last point, the last thing chechens and dagestanis want is showing sympathy towards radical islamists last time they did it grozny was a smoking crater quite literally
@@u2beuser714Well grozny kicked the Russians out, Putin false flagged a terror attack, then grozny was a smoking crater.
14:14 ... or, as they say in Russia, "You could eat a fish and not choke on a fishbone"
Hi just wondering what do you mean when you say “Iran is presumed to be backing Hamas” ? This is repeated a lot in media but not as presumed. We’re not in another WMD situation are we? This is an established fact isn’t it?
Where else did they get the resources for those long range missiles.
Saying Iran isn't backing HAMAS is like saying Israel isn't backing Azerbaijan.
That's your US Marshal saving Grace if you're tailing it
illegally integrated them* correction
Just to be clear, you are saying it's reasonable to expect militant groups will attempt more high profile adventures/attacks inside Russia in the coming weeks/months?
Almost certainly, especially now that the Russians are cracking down on their Muslim minority.
We need to keep our troops safe from this evil. We can fund our friends but nothing more.
the saudi flag does not look very good as a stick figure
Why that concert? Intelligence said concert.
14:00 In french that woul be "Avoir le beurre, l'argent du beurre.. et le cul de la crèmière" or having the butter, the money from the butter's sale, and the dairywoman's ass. Good vid, lost me in the beginning, made more sense as it went on.
Uvalde Texas uvalde Russia what's a fixed positional geographical hit
@everyone in the comments
If you think the US is behind the attack I am seriously worried for your reasoning capabilities.
Don't attack the video because you live in a fantasy and you don't agree with reality.
Don't sweat it. They are mostly Russian or Chinese bots.
Exactly especially since ISIS admitted it was them that did it
I guess it’s a complicated moral dilemma for them and I can kind of see that like are you going to believe Russian propaganda which is stupid to even think of or are you going to give a terrorist organization what they want by blaming them when they said it was them
I've enjoyed a good laugh on just about every video on this channel, just from seeing what the russian & chinese bots & meat puppets have been instructed to say _this_ week. It shouldn't be funny, but it's always funny!
Its so bizarre how people try and lump china and russia together as if the two are allied in any way shape or form
@@danielhale1 I wouldnt be laughing especially if you live in the west and the elections are coming
Here's what the future holds for Russia: Oh, shit.. You already know ;)
It was a Special FSB Operation
😅
Well, not only Russia has deterrence problem versus islamic groups, because they believe in martyrdom.
Russia has some peculiar traits though that make it likely to be attacked. Islamic population to blend into. History of fighting islamic forces. Unprofessional security forces focused on other duties.
Can someone from Yemen confirm this story of the strange powers of your sheep? And can a human attain these powers by eating those sheep? Asking for a friend.
Hmmm... I'm not sure the threat of retaliation is always an effective deterrent. Some militant groups want a war in their own territory because war is good for business, and they are often better at surviving a war than the current government is.
In many ways a guarantee of retaliation is as dangerous to give out as a guarantee of pacifism because that may be the entire point of an attack.
And that all assumes the group is rational in the first place. Maybe sensible assumption for Hamas but would you be willing to bet on that assumption for groups like Aum Shinrikyo or the People's Temple? I wouldn't. They will not care how you retaliate or not.
Anders Puck Nielson had a video done recently on “Was the Moscow Attack a False Flag Operation” and was demobilized by RUclips because they claimed the video was “exploiting a sensitive event”. I am hoping that your video does not end up with the same fate. Censorship is on the rise in RUclips land.