THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM?! - WATCH MARKET UPDATE 2023!!
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- Опубликовано: 9 июл 2023
- Time for a Watch Market Update Summer 2023!! All seems calm in by battlefront. Prices have seemed to settle in there respective places. Let's discuss!
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The market in the UK is dire, very very little is actually selling. IMO it will get worse with more interest rate rises to come. Prices will drop further, which is good for us genuine collectors!
Good for us 🎉And bad for the RUclips lies
@@daniellewis9240 agreed.
Agree
18238 gem set onyx day date anyone haha ?
You wish!!! Keep hoping for a crash
I never heard of a realtor or car dealer say its a bad time to buy, same goes for watch dealers now I guess XD
$30k for a 116500ln white dial, not for much longer. Still overpriced and will keep going down.
Opusntime watches is the king of the watch market update and he has been saying for the last 13 months the watch market is dead in a backyard pool and floating face down. Unbelieveble but true
The antiques market, at the top end, is finally coming down hard in the UK. These are the same wealth bracket as many luxury watch buyers.
in the UK the situation isn't good, you can tell because they the grey market dealers are still trying to offload stock at yesterday's price, but the price they are buying has dropped a lot. I've been collecting quite a lot of data, and the grey market dealers are the problem. Hopefully we see prices drop more.
Spot on 💯
Always like watching your videos Eric. I’m coming to Miami end of October and hope to drop by your shop.
Good show Eric. You do come off as a collector. That in my view is a good thing. Thank you.
Thanks
The market will not go up until the rates go down. And that isn’t happening anytime soon. Central banks all over the world are shrinking their balance sheets and that means less money in the system, and despite the contraction of money there is inflation, not a good sign. Just like in the-90s all Rolexes will be available at retail, some even under.
Another good video with a lot of information. Your boy down here in Austin, Texas getting this construction money. i’m coming back for that gold 40mm stall cool 🤙🏼💯
Recession hasn’t even started yet my friend… Powell is going to make sure we feel the pain
There was never a recession nor a crash, what we have is inflatation which will never cool down anymore, this is because the material price is constantly going up.
I think it has but they don't want to announce it, no to create a panic it's smart in a way .
In the UK the watch market is dead for a few reasons. The obvious ones are the cost of living is rising so quickly people simply can’t afford it. Even the idiots who like to pretend they are well off aren’t buying watches. Watch crime is getting worse too and in hard times crime often rises. The less obvious reasons are the retail prices is rising so quickly it feels like these watch companies are abusing their position and people are sick of it and lastly it’s hard to wear a Rolex without looking like a try hard or a wrist rolling flexing idiot and it’s putting people off the watch buying hobby in general. I would have normally bought a watch or two in the last year but I feel like I’m done with it all and I’m enjoying what I’ve got. There’s definitely a downturn in the watch industry and it feels like it’s going to get worse.
With Covid almost completely gone (or perhaps just ignored) in Asia. Many Asian countries have been starting to travel A LOT recently, and that’s definitely going to affect the watch market. Interest rates are still rising in these countries to curb down inflation rate as well. Therefore I expect the prices for hyped models continue to fall slowly.
I agree 100% with your market assessment. But the AP RO Offshores have taken a pretty bit hit….about 30% from the top and trading below retail.
Offshore have been dropping for years. The giant watch phase has been gone for several years now. No one wants those Giant watches anymore that’s why the regular royal oaks have been doing ok
Excellent video Eric. Let’s not also forget the rolex hq element. Rolex hq (not the ADs) have a very tight grip on supply. They are masters of market management. Talking to my AD in the U.K, they say their supply stock has dropped massively since 6-8 months ago. You might get a few watches under or close to retail now, like the explorer 2 but I’m pretty sure they’ll do something to rejuvenate the market for those models not performing well in the grey market. Milgauss is prime example, they discontinued it and suddenly it’s become a cool watch again. They also introduced CPO..
From what I’ve understood from a lot of AD’s is that there is no list for Daytonas. These pieces are for customers that have a spend history and even then the ones that will buy the most of everything (ladies models also) will be the ones with priority.
Confirmed by my AD as well
always been the case yes, even for other popular sports models
Yep same thing with my ad
even if there's a list they can change it around at any time, if you buy 100k worth of jewlery at an AD you can be sure a nice watch will suddenly free up for you
Grey market is dead in the water floating face down in a backyard pool.Hopefully the guys ripping the public a new arse had the sense to lower stock.
🍭 drop drop drop
Dont be their lollipop suckers
Unbelievable!!! Unbelievable but true!! TSGWMID 💀
🦤 🍭😂
Hi Eric, what do you think about the impact of new version Daytona to the older versions. Since we still don’t see any models one the market yet.
One of the few American dealers I would sit down with for a coffee and have trust in buying a watch. And I am in the UK. ❤
Very true - maybe it’s a uk thing….. but Eric takes no shit and just talks his mind.
thanks for the video you are the best keep it up🤙🤙🤙
And dropping. Drop, drop!!
🍭 TSWMID
@@BobbyDazzler888 FFDIABYP!!😂😂😂
Iam warming me up, to go to AD and order the new two tone GMT. I just hope I get is faster then the sub last year. I hope times have changed.
Great content. Thanks for ALL the informative knowledge. I am goin to Greece next week and I'm looking to purchase a watch for under 10k. Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated. Thank u
I finally picked up a GMT Batman on Jubilee after a 6 month wait from the AD. I was on a digital wish list for both a Submariner and the Batman on Jubilee. When I got the call, they asked if I wanted the Submariner still or would be interested in purchasing the “exhibition only” Batman on Jubilee they had. I took the Batman/girl. My purchase history in those six month was a Tudor Pro GMT and a Rolex 34 OP blue dial for the wifey. They never once asked me to purchase those models I just wanted them already.
Beautiful watch, happy days. Love it on the jubilee
Prices are one indicator but we have to look also at trading volumes and inventory levels , i believe that inventory levels once summer goes by will determine prices direction.
and what do you think will happen? do you think inventory levels will go up or down? and why?
@omar10213245 My point was for traders who keep communicating current pricing and how stability is a good indicator of the market where they should also share trading volumes and how it compares to both previous periods and inventory levels, I believe that ( and I am not a trader ) currently it's a wait and see period for both sellers and buyers however comes fall I think sellers will be pushed to lower prices significantly as most economists I follow and trust talks about a coming recession.
Watch inventories at dealers are at very high levels. Collectors have held onto more watches due to rising prices. Collectors will soon slim down their collections. This combination is significantly drive down prices in the coming months. I’m guessing 5-10% down at minimum across everything. Obviously some models will become more in demand due to hype and trends. But overall, the watch market is going to be down
Nice video mate 🥃. DROP DROP DROP. Like a dead person face down in the Miami River. It’s over
2020 and 2021 was indeed a bubble. Those that bought Pandas above $40K will take permanent loss. Watch tastes change with time. Just ask those that bought Frank Muellers and Panareis 20 years ago and where they are at today. Panda Daytona will always hold some sort of a premium though. Times are changing. I’ve gotten multiple calls from my AD for two tone sports Rolexes
What area are you located? ADs here still pretty tight.
Just buy Rolex at airports
@@Syhbwthank you. These guys saying they’re getting calls a) never say where they are; b) leave out they, their father and maybe grandfather have all bought from that AD. You or I, looking to finally buy our 1st (I procrastinated - that’s on me) aren’t getting that phone call.
@@WestCoastAce27you are so right. Bingo!!!
@@WestCoastAce27 I’m in Dallas, TX. If you are having trouble with your nearest AD, I highly advise to talk to other ones i your area as each AD is different from the other. Some ADs only deal out of highly expensive areas where people have a lot of money (Highland park, TX for example) while others have locations less affluent areas.
When we will see TT Datejusts for sale at ADs? Still only exhibition pieces displayed at ADs.
Watch prices are way down in July 2023. From last year to now they're down 20-30% on some models. Some models bought in 2022 thinking they were going to go higher is fucked right now. It's going to go down another 10%-20%. Buying a watch for 50k and its down to 30k-35k is a major L
Good luck. I hope you keep the sun glasses.
My wife watched your show for the first time. She asked "what's with the Sunglasses"?
I would like extend a welcome aboard message.
Eric is always high on various substances. he has to hide it.
Great video brother. Greetings from the Texas store! 🎉
prices are still 40 percent more than they ought to be, they will drop to near list soon, at least in the uk
One thing is clear. Do not wear anything noticeable on your wrist if you plan to travel to France.
Pick a Timex, an entry level Citizen or a Swatch and you’ll be safer and won’t have to worry that much.
How about the immigrants taking control over your country day by day?
France or Paris?
Or London. Or Los Angeles. Or Rio De Janeiro. Or.....
Paris, Nice, Cannes, etc… The stealing people are there and jump on all opportunities. The government let them do it or even encourage them to !
My Timex is my fav daily!
The sheer number of auctions on moda lately clearly show things are bad. People listing watches on there only to find they can only move the piece with an auction. Other day someone listed a used stainless 43mm offshore for basically retail and said how quickly it would sell. Lol pretty sure it hasn’t moved. Interested to see how the new offshores pan out for AP being that they are almost 50k at retail and don’t seem to be moving for more than 34-35k.
The big models are slow
Second hand means used so it is normal that it sells below retail of the brand new item which is unscathed, unscratched, unpolished, untampered with and with all the guarantee ! Why buy something second hand, used with less guarantee and pay more than retail ? That’s mad as these items are non essential Nice to have toys.
I got a Pepsi GMT at retail. I was told the wait was years two months ago I got the call
Eric what would on pay for explorer 2 or the airking
Things are not rising, trust me. From London, UK
Hey Eric, Love the channel!! Iv got a 2018 Hulk, full set, I do ware it everyday however it is in very good condition. just a few very minor scratches, still has stickers on it. Is this one to hold on to and wear a little less? I don't want to sell the watch but I don't want to hurt the value too much either! Its lost a significant amoun of Value over the last few months here in the UK. Thanks so much for taking the time to read this :)
if you love your hulk and love wearing it, then continue to do just that. and take those stupid stickers off, don't be one of those guys.
I cant wait til the market gets tattooed and I can add an AP to my case. 35k is a tough pill to swallow.
Prices of all luxury goods will TANK when home owners renew their mortgages at these new inflated intertest rates. Expect to see bIood flowing in the street.
Excellent market status update 👍
I was speaking to an AD who said many people who registered an interest in certain Rolex models during Covid are now changing there mind when they get the call to say the watch has arrived because of the current economic situation
Watches will never be the same again. It was the perfect storm. BTC up, rates down, housing/stocks all time highs. Rolex will always remain a sound purchase but the show is over
I agree with you Eric. The market is sustainable and there will be good music.
" If music is the food of love, play on. " . ( William Shakespeare )
You gonna pay or play ?
Recuerda La Oracion de San Francisco cubana.
And one more thing...
" You dont own your possessions. They own you. " ( San Francisco |%
True Talk
First casualties I have seen are polar white explorer 2s.
Used/like new prices near rrp. That'll be the Rolex waiting list about to die as well.
We are NOT pre covid prices yet ..... that would be a great place to be
The shit is going to hit the fan. to a small extent. Rolex is going to double production and the prices that where inflated because of covid are going to continue to drop!
Just like CRM & a few others, I trust ya Eric & respect you bro.
👍&sub’d brother.
P.s. One would still need to be high on coke to pay the current pruces for AP Royal Oak, especially with Girard Perregaux Laureato prices!
I agree with you implicitly about Rolex Day/Date II.
I just picked up a Panda Daytona at $30k since I wasn't getting it off the waitlist and don't like the new model as much.
Honestly so glad I don’t follow the market as I only now buy new from AD’s. This way don’t care about the ups and downs and enjoy the pieces I get from the AD.
Same here and I buy with peace of mind as from the AD it’s guaranteed new, will full accessories and full guarantee too !
i buy what i like..there is a couple watches ive bought from the AD that i haven’t worn..
I bought a Tudor bb58 and it's good
I have the Tudor Panda Chrono and it’s a great piece.
The overall market will continue to steadily go down as credit card financed flipper’s go away so AD,s will have to start selling to real end users driving secondary prices below MSRP
You were doing great until the end. There’s a lot of wealth (money printing, crypto, RE profits) - short of WWIII the Rolex (sport watches) are never going under MSRP. EVER.
@@WestCoastAce27and I will add that hopefully Rolex will cut production to avoid this. Adjust to demand
In the summer of 2017, they were all available and under retail, except for the SS ceramic Daytonas.
@@WestCoastAce27false.
Time will tell. That’s it.
Anything over 20, 30k im buying solid gold. Maybe yachtmaster 16628.
Nice
If you are waiting for the 116500, you have the option to land automatically on the list for the new reference. Just got last week my 116509LN Oysterflex, even accepted to move to the new reference number.
how long did you wait for it ?
@@Rado_TV exactly 20 months
according to grey market dealers the market has been "fine" or "stabilizing" for months yet it's almost been a straight line down and continues to drop. they don't want to waste months of business and tell people that they're better off waiting
yeah its a straight line down. people obviously have realized that watches have become just a flex, and the rise of perfect 1:1 replicas have soured it. Can buy a clone of any watch and it will be completely indistinguishable for $500
@@TrollLulCats i don't personally think they're indistinguishable yet (usually they can open them up to tell) but could be there within 5 years
@@mrcool76789 indistinguishable to any normal person and even watch interested folks, no one cracking open someone elses watch at a party
@@TrollLulCats oh for sure, but i would still want to buy an authentic watch, even if only i know, who cares about other people
Great video. But I think this is more than a summer slump - dark economic clouds on the horizon - and money printer probably not getting turned back on.
Now if Blackrock gets their BTC spot ETF, prices of luxury watches will go insane.
Eric💪😎
What's a good price on a 16233 36mm date just no holes case double quickset with box n papers ..two tone 18k with champagne dial
@Watch Eric , love your content . what is the value of the 2023 diamond bezel and diamond hour points rolex presidential, is it in demand?
Give me a datejust fluted 41 with black dial on jubilee and Im a happy dude.
The market is going to have another leg Down. Let’s be honest
Im suprised the Pepsi jubilee has gone up in price, I have noticed this as well. Hoping to get this once it reaches my target price
Seems to me the drop is very gradual, probably because sales are so slow. But will keep going I think. Won't be long until nearly everything is below retail again. As it should be.
I’m glad to see this stabilization myself.
The price os all assets including watches are going down down down without the bottom anywhere in sight . The worlds governments are sucking the money out of the system and this affects the price of everything…economics 101
Another awesome video again, I think you really nailed it with the state of the market. Thank you.
I was just in Vegas. They were offering me a stainless steel sub if I bought a rose gold day date. After saying no, then they tried to get me to buy any watch and they'll sell me the sub with it. Lol. Let them burn!!!
I would t pay more than 25k for a panda Daytona, no more government easy money, and at least in medicine, the student loans will come back and that’s a big payment too. Luxury is pretty dead
$25k basically pre Covid price for 116500 Panda.
@@Syhbw and it will go lower
@@leisurexs2844 maybe so with the new 126500 coming up. Newer reference most likely will be more desired.
@@Syhbw I posted this comment and got my discontinued panda from my AD a day later. Lovely
@@leisurexs2844 congrats
If people can’t get house loans best believe they aint buying a Rolex, its time to stack your chips for next year
Oh they can get it. They just dont wanna pay the interest lol
We haven't even seen the high interests rates run it's full course here in America. The pressure it'll put on businesses will lead to further lay offs. It's scary to imagine how our country will be by March next year. As with prior recessions, luxury is always on the first thing smokin' and watches are no exception.
I think and hope Rolex is cutting production to adjust to demand. That would protect the secondary prices.
Nope. They have not cut production. Actually the opposite & building another facility. They have zero interest in protecting the grey market. Grey will always be a percentage higher than retail on hot pieces. Love that I can get a Polar for darn near retail. So glad I didn’t buy on the hype. A lot of watch “investors” getting smacked.
Nope. They are still increasing it.
People make their own decision personal market analyses then if they profit massively then good on them and if they loose massively then equally good on them. Either way people will learn the rationals and that is excellent.
Average 2yr mortgage rates in the U.K. are soaring towards 7%, rents sky high. The market for luxury second hand watches will completely collapse. It’s inevitable. I think when it comes to Rolex, you’ll always have your high premiums for the hard ones to get, however I think 80% of Rolex’s catalog will drop below retail on the secondary. It’s become a buyers market, which is a great thing. Only 100% positive for us watch fans.
You recon watch prices will still be down by oct. Wanting to get a ap ss skelly
@@07zi74 AP SS Skelly! ☺️🤣 id stick to the Sekonda’s mate.
This is the man who taught me how to choose my AP model !
The funny thing about people hoping that the market crashes. When the time really comes, these same people will not be buying watches.
Umm I want... a Blancpain Fifty Fathoms No Radiation No Date Tritium 1965 with graduated bakelite bezel
🍭 TSWMID
FLOATING FACE DOWN IN A BACKYARD POOL
eric heeft eindelijk zyn ruby dial gehaald die hy zo graag wou😇👍
Game over
How much sun is there in that office ?
Gray market won’t be at retail price it’s minimum 3k if not 7-8k above the retail price. Plus gray market is slow not like it use to be lest year.
subscribed
This time next year you will be offered 10-15% OFF MSRP on 95% of Rolex references just like pre 2017.
Eric just to say I've been on the waiting list over 8 years for a panda Datona 😂 in Dubai and now its discontinued. But they have said don't worry we will put you down for the new reference panda. Luckily I didn't have to start all over again. Fingers crossed. Will see and let you no if if get lucky. Dubai Dick 👍
Watch Eric is so wise, he always nails it. His content is a treasure to the watch community
We are in the era of going back to 36mm to a max of 40mm. 42-44mm is just too big.
38mm - 41mm is where it's at!
Super clones that watch dealer has to pull apart to find out if its real , they cant tell the deference between a $1500 clone and a $40,000 genuine watch . So if you just wanna wear a nice looking watch and dont care much for investment . Super clones are looking attractive now 😂
I wanna buy a root beer. 16000 for a 2022 I saw on Monday seems to be the best price I have seen.
Juan told us a few months ago…
The correction is in place and has barely started.
Remember, just a few years ago most of these pieces were readily available for retail or LESS. This bubble was just created recently with free pandemic $ and crypto. Everything is going back down to retail or less, with only a few exceptions.
If you think otherwise….I believe you are going to be disappointed.
I hope btc goes down to retail would love to snatch them on 0.10 cente
DD2 fluted looks too big like a carton watch. But DD2 or DJ2 smooth bezel looks like a baller watch. Smooth is a classic subtle big flex. Fluted better DD40 as elegant
The 40 is just way nicer than the 2 overall. I think the market shows that opinion is common
I think that, this flex hype will end soon
It’s just not sostenibile, with that said consequently the watch hype will end with it.
Great from Zürich 🇨🇭
Great! I contacted you a few days ago if you have the chance to have a look☺️
AP on whole different level of price. Anyone can go in Rolex and buy a 10k hit to get another watch but with AP you have to buy a offshore for 43k to get considered for a Royal Oak.
Are you sure that offshore is so easy to get?
@@Rado_TV easy peasy lemon squeezy
I’m going to wait … wait and wait
perceived value vs real value, I'll go for GOLD than watches these days.