"Deadly Skies" Air Defence In Ukraine - Drones, SAMs, and Attrition
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- Опубликовано: 13 май 2024
- The Russian Air Force began the war in Ukraine with a formidable inventory of combat aircraft (fixed wing and helicopters) supported by an array of stand-off munitions and EWAR capabilities.
In the opening hours, it seemed that those capabilities may be paying off, with paratroopers inserting at Hostomel without interception by Ukraine's integrated air defence system (IADS). At the same time, Russian columns were (seemingly incomprehensibly) being picked apart by slow moving TB-2 Drones.
But things changed quickly, and since the stabilisation of the situation, the airspace over Ukraine has been contested. Aircraft fly low to avoid interception, while new threats periodically emerge to challenge the equilibrium.
Recently, those include HARM missiles, Iranian and Russian loitering munitions, and cruise missile attacks on civilian infrastructure.
In this video I look at the impact of air-defence systems on the Ukraine war, and what lessons observers may be taking based on the available data.
Patreon:
/ perunau
Gaming Chanel:
/ @perungamingau
Caveats:
The two big unknowns sitting behind this one should be obvious - accurate loss data and the burn rate on munitions is hard to come by. Visually confirmed losses diverge heavily from claimed losses in every category, but for aircraft in particular.
While an important topic - it is important to remember that the data here is ...flawed to say the least.
Sources:
Figures for arms exports are SIPRI TIVs for 2001-2021
Figures on pre-war weapon inventories are Military Balance 2021
Individual engagement examples like shootdowns are credited to a range of OSINT aggregators including:
www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02...
UAWeapons?ref_src...
Usage of Gepards and Osa together in Ukraine:
www.armyrecognition.com/ukrai...
On Russian EWAR efforts - Colonel (Retired) Jeffrey Fischer
www.thedefensepost.com/2022/0...
"The Russian Victory Everyone Missed" - Military History not Visualised (note that I don't agree with all of the conclusions therein)
• The Russian Victory mi...
Slovakian S-300 supply
www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/4...
Movement of Russian missiles from Saint Petersburg:
yle.fi/news/3-12626182#:~:tex....
Russian sources are as previously stated
Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Opening Words
00:02:19 - What Am I Covering?
00:03:34 - Soviet Sam Development
00:05:55 - An Integrated Offering
00:06:32 - Long Range Systems
00:09:06 - Mid-Short Range Defence
00:10:14 - SHORAD, Lots of SHORAD
00:12:25 - The Dominant Actor
00:13:55 - Usage In Ukraine
00:14:10 - The Opening Days
00:16:48 - The Line's Steady
00:19:07 - Contested Airspace
00:19:41 - Disruptive Systems
00:21:18 - The Missile Campaigns
00:22:47 - "Traditional Targets"
00:25:53 - A Failure of SEAD/DEAD
00:27:25 - "Unconventional Targets"
00:28:23 - The TB-2 Experience
00:29:40 - The Himars Problem
00:32:40 - The Orlan Problem
00:35:47 - Losses and Statistics
00:37:04 - Confirmed Russian Losses
00:37:50 - Ukrainian Losses
00:39:00 - Resupply and Sustainment
00:40:49 - Western Systems and Their Deployment
00:42:35 - What Has Been Pledged?
00:44:50 - Inventory Problem
00:45:56 - NASAMS and its Significance
00:48:14 - Themes and Observations
00:48:59 - SEAD/DEAD Are Hard
00:50:44 - Drones - The Vulnerable
00:51:28 - Drones - The Problematic
00:53:42 - New Threats, New Defences
00:55:08 - Old Tools, and New Ones
00:56:22 - EWAR & Software
00:57:17 - A Renewed Market
01:00:06 - Conclusions
01:01:26 - Channel Update
"What did you do on Sunday, son?"
"Laundry, and watched an in-depth analysis of Ukrainian air defenses, mom."
"....when will I have grandchildren?"
"When the war ends and Perun stop making PowerPoints, mom."
This hits way too close to home.
Find yourself that girl who talks SEAD with yah. One day friend
@@faithnfire4769 I’m a Ukrainian girl watching this like it’s the best PowerPoint on earth 😅 There is someone out there for you 😊
@@faithnfire4769 I knew a girl like that once. It was wonderful.
Then the alarm clock rang and I woke up
My favourite thing about this channel is that Perun doesn't condescend his audience by 'dumbing down' the content to make it more bite-sized, catchier, and vaguer. It's rare to find a channel that respects its audience by knowing that they're coming to this with some background knowledge and they're capable of understanding analytics. Providing hard data over hyperbole is not something you see frequently on this platform, and even in the mainstream media. It's just refreshing to see informed discussion on RUclips, and to see that being rewarded is reassuring. Well done mate, you're probably my most trusted source of news in this war. Keep up the dry Australian humour and phrases too!
Well said....in total agreement with you.
Dido
Exactly !
However, I appreciate him avoiding jargon only military guys would know.
Concur100%.
I mostly don't understand what he is talking about. But it's clear he knows what and that there are people out there that do.
So much skill and technology for destruction still makes me sad.
Well done Perun. I spent 25 years in the military, and these are some of the best intel briefs I have ever seen.
I spent six years, and these are the only ones I've ever bothered listening to, as well!!
Nah, I'm only joking, they're not really!
This series of videos has completely changed how I view modern militaries. I realized I knew basically nothing about how a modern force works and what really matters. Thank you for taking the time to help me learn.
Things sure have changed since Vietnam.
“Systems aren’t soldier-proof.”
What a line. Well said.
A properly professional way to describe a Skill Issue.
"a common mistake that people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools"
@@MaddeningFly
Thank you for that one
how funny... I read your line as the words came out of my earphones
add employee proof for companies to that :D
I don't need sleep, I need to hear about Air Defence In Ukraine.
I have been in this picture and I don't like it.
Now I can't sleep, I need to hear about more Air Defence deliveries into Ukraine. I _truly hope_ Ukrainian pilot training for the F-16 and SEAD missions was started in the spring.
Lol...ditto
@@sietuuba You don't need sleep _you need answers_
@@hungrymusicwolf Yes, to questions such as _how soon can we restore WW2 flak cannon batteries to defend cities against low flying and slow Iranian kamikaze drones?_
"don't over-learn a lesson" is a great phrase. The Ukraine-russia war is unique. The lack of SEAD/air supiriority is very strange in modern times. The use of many MANY commercial drones and lack of EW is also, very strange for modern war. There really isnt another comparison on this scale. Also the fact that starlink allows uninterrupted access to the front lines, and everyone has a camera phone effects this way more than live news did for vietnam. It's difficult to say what other counteries would ever end up in this kind of conflict? Where both sides start with more or less, the same equipment hardware, but rely on 1980's mechinized tactics.
Good breakdown dude, thanks for the work!
Yes. If NATO was willing to risk turning this relatively small war into full blown thermonuclear war, it would radically change the situation and overall dynamic. (And I certainly don’t think NATO should take that risk.)
The lack of SEAD is not strange. It just means that the US is not an active part of the conflict.
That being said, it's not beyond the scope of feasibility for there to be another situation where two powers go to war but neither one is capable of establishing air superiority. In which case the lessons of the Russia-Ukraine War will be immensely useful for seeing how a modern campaign might be carried out.
@@Fuhrerjehova people kind of forget that the US is actually the only proven military superpower.
While certainly NOT the same. the Falklands saw two somewhat equally matched opponent's on an equipment front, yes sometimes the argentines had older equirpment such as canberra bombers etc, both sides were fairly even matched tech wise and often used the same or licensed versions of kit eg FN FAL / SLR and chinook helicopters. obviously training, strategy and morale were nowhere near balanced but neither are they in Ukraine. Interestingly, also from the 80s.
I used to design loitering munitions, and every day the question was "how do I make this as cost prohibitive to counter as possible?". I'm glad you talked about the economic problem of the "opportunity cost" of not engaging a cheap system. I think it's pretty clear from tech development around the world that a) these systems are here to stay b) jamming and EWAR is not a panacea but c) practical and effective counters for these systems are only just around the corner: the "First Happy Time" is a limited window.
At some point I can see loitering munitions going through another transformation when the concept is applied to ground based systems. Something along the lines of putting. an EFP on the back of a walking robot and have it stalk the enemy's tanks and AFVs. It's very much science fiction at the moment but I could see developments like that causing another shakeup in doctrine and technology.
@@trolleriffic Unlikely. Any munition that flies (missiles, rockets, fixed wings, quads, whatever) is going to have a massively expanded engagement envelope and, most importantly, drastically reduced interception time that I doubt will ever happen. A rocket or propeller propelled weapon will always be faster than a wheeled/legged/tracked/whatever one. Nature shows this: even a pigeon can fly at the same speed a cheetah can sprint.
I would point at the WW2 vintage Goliath as basically the only example of a ground based "strike" munition and how ineffective it was. Humans figured out quite a while ago that throwing things at the enemy was the best way.
There is no (IMO) functional difference between a (non E model) Maverick ATGM and a Switchblade: one is just slower, has a smaller warhead, but has longer endurance and is cheaper. Maybe this results in an optimal design point and a further proliferation of these systems, but time will tell if that class of "low cost PGM/ATGM" is still viable in the presence of effective SHORAD.
@@Rhino_Aus I predict UAV evolve similar to WW2 air combat, but on a micro scale. Next logical step is fast and cheap semi-autonomous interceptors packing guns. Then micro air-to-air missiles. Then air superiority drones designed to fight each other. Perhaps this will be the route to the robotic air-superiority fighter the air-force has been begrudgingly searching for.
@@xiaodaigu5659 I doubt we'll ever see a gun seriously employed for an air to air role (unmanned or otherwise) unless ECMs are developed that counter all known guidance systems so effectively that a purely ballistic projectile is the only viable option which is 0% probable. Missiles are just better in every way: the gun is a relic in all roles except close air support, and even then is much better employed by rotary wing or ground assets. I have no doubt however that UCAS will mount A2A and A2G missiles in both self defensive and offensive roles.
@@xiaodaigu5659 Next is Skynet 😁
I never thought I'd be excited for an hour long slideshow, yet here I am.
I know, lol same here, if only presentations at work could be half as interesting.
Every week! When it drops on a Saturday it's even more bonus.
how do we hire Perun for quarterly safety training at the warehouse?
Perun honestly reminds me of some of my favorite classes in college. I don't care that it's a narrated sideshow, the content is so tasty that I just don't care.
You & 200k+ other people.
It’s gotten to the point that I’m anxiously waiting for both this channel and the gaming channels content
Right there with you about this channel. Feel like a junky waiting for a fix.
There's places offering less exciting PowerPoint presentations to help prevent withdrawal during the week.
If you can't get to one, let your company's senior management know you really want to know about their strategic direction.
Oh yeah, heck multiple times a Saturday and Sunday for new upload
Yeah when we're watching his video within 40 minutes of it uploading I believe we are Junkies
@@johncrowley9649 I’ve got his terra invicta series and presentations playing on my monitors to maximize brain expansion
The fact that you offered to refund those patrons donations is amazing mate, I have never seen a creator be so forthcoming, keep up the amazing work, you deserve all the success you are receiving ❤
I love that the Flakpanzer Gepard is getting a new lease on life as an anti-drone platform. One of my favourite Cold War pieces of armour, I had the Tamiya kit as a kid
See the YT video with the German rock band music in the background? (Arscher) Fell in love with that lil badazz rt then.
Pilots (adrenaline junkies): "Most don't want to fly three foot off the deck just for fun in a combat zone. They're more inclined to safer activities, like base-jumping".
Oh man, that one got me good. XD
I actually laughed out loud at that during the video, which is something that doesn't happen very often for me :D
What's base jumping ?
@@polasamierwahsh421 Parachute jumping. But instead of out of a plane, you jump of a skyscraper, mountain cliff, high bridge or something similar.
@@HIlIlIlIlIlIlH oh
...that's why pilots always seem a lil unhinged
@@polasamierwahsh421 sometimes includes wing suits and flying with said wing suits within 20ft of rock formations at a scary rate of speed.
43:42 It's a mystery how Finnish antiair systems ended up in Ukraine.
Love Perun's occasional comedic segments!
Yep, he throws these little gems in all his videos. Great dry humour to go with his impeccable analysis
@@DeyanKostov Indeed, in a previous Perun episode, Bulgarian small arms ammunition that were sold to Poland and other NATO partners mysteriously ended up in Ukraine. 🤣🤣🤣
@@DeyanKostov But Perun is calling it...
Them Finns forget to padlock their storages 🤫
@@irgendwieanders2121 Lock picking lawyer quietly packing up his kit and disappearing
@@PeterJavi 🤣😂🤣
I'm looking forward to THAT video
Ukraine here. Man I love your videos.
I have a couple of friends that are currently in different mechanized units that also have anti-air capability. I really can't add much to your information expect for a few small "funny" bits.
So number 1, at least one unit is getting 100k per air target (heli or plane). Basically, you get paid when you have a confirmed hit. Payment goes only to the person that pushed the button regardless of system, e.g., manpad or s-300 or buk or whatever. With current exchange rate it's about 2500 USD.
Number 2 is that our guys are trained on all types of systems. One of my friends (a senior IT developer) enlisted and was trained for 3 weeks. After that he got his ticket to hell and was sent to fight the ruskies. Doing great so far. But just imagine that the whole "anti-air" capability training is taking 3 weeks or less.
Number 3 is that one team was having issues near Kherson region. There was an enemy su-25 that was harassing guys for days and they couldn't lock and destroy. The captain of that "team" called their trainer in western Ukraine (i'll keep the city out of this) and said: "I have no fuc*ng idea about what you trained them to do but if they don't get this plane down today, I'm signing an order to get you here and you will have to put it down yourself". Basically, the guy was ready to pack his bags but he decided to do this. He calls up one of these soldiers that he trained, asks him to run a screenshare session via phone, they wait until the su-25 shows-up, and they take it down while talking over the phone :D They were using the french mistral or smth system for that.
Number 4 is that our forces are destroying missiles with these systems. None of them are really designed to this sort of stuff. I must say that our anti-air rocket forces are truly out of this world. One of the reasons I still sleep relatively OK. With the amount of equipment they have, they are doing some insane stuff.
We also got the first IRIS-T system recently. So fingers crossed it proves its value.
*Edit to the original comment. The suppression operations are hard for both countries, however there a big difference is the WHY. Ukrainian air force is a lot smaller and quite underfinanced compared to Russian air force. Now the russians themselves don't do suppression training the way US does. US has all of these fancy "group" pair trainings and special pilots that are trained to attract anti-air systems and fighter jets. US also spends tremendous amount of time on these sorts of drills while russian pilots 1) almost don't fly 2) are using garmin GPS inside migs to navigate (photo evidence) 3) almost never train in pairs where 1 pilot attracts attention while the 2nd one is locking on anti-air systems. Operations like these are hard but I wouldn't judge the whole thing by how it's developing in UA/RU war.
What an interesting comment! Luv your insider info :) The resilience and resourcefulness of ukrainians is astounding!
For the Americans like me out there: $2.500 is NOT $2.50. Soldiers are not being paid 2 and a half dollars to shoot down a plane. In Europe they use periods as commas. Soldiers are being paid $2,500 for every aircraft shot down. That means two thousand and five hundred dollars.
@@genericyoutubeaccount579 Not "in Europe". It's actually rather mixed between countries whether , or . is the decimal separator.
@@andersjjensen True. Pole here, and we're using (non-breaking) spaces as thousand separators (commas as decimal separators). I'm used to it now, but I was always shocked how people can read long numbers with all those commas or dots in the way :)
Hm, I'd expect IT guys to be placed in comms or internal development roles instead of AA, though I guess the skill of understanding complex poorly documented systems quickly in a foreign language is very useful in many military specialities.
The value of your channel is immense. In an era of disinformation and political BS, you have some good facts to look at without as much bias. Your level of integrity is also immense, offering refunds to folks who decided to directly support you when demonotization threatened this stream of data. No one I know would have done this. Kudos.
Wow Perun I've never heard another You Tuber offer a refund on Patreon subscriptions. It just shows what a trustworthy guy you are. Thank you for all your hard work this is definitely one of the best channels on the platform you should be proud of your achievements not humbled!
Right! He’s a stand up guy!
Clickspring does this a few times a year
I know of 2 other channels that do it. But it's very rare indeed.
i know dude. i heard that and all i could think was that this guy is the real deal. massive respect❤️
Denys Davydov has offered refunds to large super chat donations Incas they accidentally sent too much.
There are a few, but yeah it's not common.
I am constantly BLOWN AWAY how consistently well-researched, confident and unbiased these presentations are.
This is like a University lecture replete with statistics, cautionary assumptions, implications etc. I always understand the issues and complications of war after every Perun presentation. And always with a better understanding of the role of Purchasing and Logistics.
Veteran here too, Perun has an incredible ability to not just understand the multiple complex layers affecting modern combat operations but I have yet to find a single thing he’s gotten wrong in addressing all of these different systems and strategic situations in every video, bravo sir 🙏🏻
@@Cedfer69 better than any university lecture I've attended. The design and presentation skills are superb.
Perun's work comes across as a professional journal article compared to a broadsheet rag. Well Done.
unbiased? perun in extremelly biased taking ukranian numbers at face value.
All 30 Gepard are already in Ukr.
This version has been completely modernized and digitized in the early 2000s, so they can fight even very small drones.
And they had always been paired with missile systems in BW practice (Roland on both tracked and wheeled basis)
First IrisT system arrived in Ukraine, too. Already in action according to Ukraine.
I imagine that will be really useful. A few 35mm shells is several orders of magnitude cheaper than a SAM.
Gepard also has a fearsome anti-infantry and anti-mechanised infantry capability. Ok, they might not be thinking about that right now, but there is a huge amount of historical experience of mobile light anti-aircraft systems doing truly stomach-turning things to infantry attacks. Stories of quad-50 systems stopping Chinese human-wave attacks in Korea stand out, but WWII use, defending and supporting infantry attacks are well documented. If they get more and then don't need all of them the support capability would still be there.
@@NORGCO ATGMs however were no real factor back in the given historic examples. Nice backup capacity if needed to shred optics of a T72 in tactical confusion, but much better to lurk behind a bit and pick off arty spotting UAVs and UCAVs.
@@NORGCO There are no flies on the 20mm, particularly the German 20mm in WWII.
I love your "Sharp enough scissors cut rock" analogy. While there's a lot of EW that goes into SEAD/DEAD, it seems to be just crazy-ass pilots daring these very deadly air defense systems to shoot at them. It would be a suicidal mission if not for the training. I mean it's cool as hell, but part of me wishes that there were automated systems instead of just hot shot pilots.
My complete respect, admiration, and a little bit of envy goes out to the Wild Weasel pilots of course.
Indeed a good companion content for this analysis would be Fighter pilot podcast 113 about wild weasels imho, lots of in depth infos on the job
@@fabiosemino2214 The fact that Perun doesn't get into that is part of his credibility. If you want to know performance figures and relative performances of different systems, there's plenty of content out there. What we get here is a trained planner with a passion for eastern europe sharing his expertise
You know, I love that shit in fact, but that's just not why I come here. I come her for competence, and I haven't been disappointed yet.
@@fabiosemino2214 Right, that would be fun. In fact, can I get a link? Perun's expertise is different though. I'm just trying to get people to appreciate it.
Exactly why their unofficial motto is You Gotta Be Shittin Me.
American SEAD capabilities were really born out of necessity in The Crucible of Vietnam, and we basically never looked back since then just getting more and more efficient and deadly. The Russians never really had that kind of experience, or anything to give them the impression that they should develop it, even if they didn't also lack the money and equipment.
All of that hard work and training paid off in 1991, and I don't think we have lost the edge since then with a good refresher in Libya.
Perun, there is a yearning for content that is complex, nuanced, rigorously researched, and presented in a manner that does justice to these elements. Thank you for the effort you put into these presentations: it is noticed, appreciated, and valued. Tena koe from Dunedin, Aotearoa.
And MSM keep wondering why they lose media share. They tell us people can only focus for 20 seconds at a time. They’re probably not people that are going to watch news at all yet they take their inbred, celebrity obsessed views into account when developing their news programming. Fools.
Say that again in Engislhz :/ or are you talik in Agient Evish ?......
@@Wolfhound223 It's Maori. He just named his country in its native language and given that Perun is an Aussie, he knows exactly what the land of the long white cloud is.
Given that you typed this on the internet, Google is at your fingertips. Try using it.
@@aaronleverton4221 You might need to translate that into Engislhz for him.
seconded!
This has become a part of my weekend routine… who needs TV when you’ve got Perun’s powerpoint presentation?
I used to give Presentations on how to give PPT presentations. The key always came down to keeping it simple, less text per slide with more talking, and high contrast colors (when in doubt use a black/white background and/or lettering).
Most people are terrible at presentations, but give them a little guidance and they can do rather well with surprisingly little effort.
As many others have said, the quality of these videos are remarkable. I have no previous knowledge in military or arms procurement or, well, anything related. But over and over my military brother is amazed when I express opinions on something I’ve learned here. I can understand most of the information and can google what I can’t understand. Besides the thrill of being better informed than siblings, it is just simply super interesting. Plus I now have more respect to soldiers in all lands and specially Ukraine’s.
There's something very illustrative about the video intro thumbnail. It depicts a Buk launcher. But the building in the background is very recognizable too. It's one of the huge exhibition buildings of the giant Soviet complex originally dedicated to the achievements of the Soviet economy. This particular building was dedicated to the space exploration program. Until very recent times, this was a symbol of peaceful life, never ever showing anything military-related. In the late eighties, they even had an exhibition about "Conversion" - a concept of repurposing the military-industrial complex to make consumer goods. This concept was a result of Gorbachev's policy. The only place you've been able to see military equipment like Buk on display in Moscow was the Army museum. But several years ago, they brought all the military stuff to this place, originally exclusively related to the civilian economy sector. To me, it was a clear sign of going way further with militarizing the culture, compared to how it's been done in the USSR.
Bump... That is interesting background info...
The ussr was bad but they knew the red lines
Modern russia doesn't understand that
@@polasamierwahsh421 it's hard to quantify, but certain things were unimaginable. There was a lot of very negative rhetoric towards the West on TV, like American military always were referred to as "invaders" and such. But nobody was saying that USSR is going to destroy the US with nukes. People never heard the names of the Soviet strategic missiles, only the American ones. These days, it sounds like a magic spell or a prayer, when TV hosts are mentioning the codenames of different weapons, as if these are the names of saints or pagan patron spirits.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exhibition_of_Achievements_of_National_Economy this is the exhibition complex I'm talking about.
@@sciloj that's actually simple
The ussr revolved its doctrines and approach on a defensive land war and to out last the enemy so they wanted the people afraid enough to trust and fight but not to the point of dealing with splinters nor radicals
Russia under Yeltsin was broken and their ideas of defending against the west shattered , Putin came in and his approach was to bring the fight to them , Russia WILL start the fight and Russia WILL win it
Unfortunately or fortunately depending on which side u like he destroyed the budding economy , gave near free reign to the oligarchs and somehow regressed both military doctrines , production capabilities and failed to secure the geopolitical must haves nor applied any fixing top the societal problems the ussr caused in its efforts to industrialize and militrize extremely fast
Thus he couldn't fix the old weaknesses and brought new demands that the country need to fulfill without bothering to implement the needed reforms
Today Russia is better than the USSR in several aspects yet weaker in all areas that matter
The media can not let the people know so they double down on the message and idea of beating the west with OUR weapons falling to realize that WE can't apply when corruption ,abuse power and neglect are the stats quote
Now we have the answer to "What air defence doing???" Thanks Perun, brilliant analysis as always
I watched the whole video waiting for this to get dropped but somehow didn't make the cut?!
After WWII, the Soviet defense industry continued to think in terms of the Second WW: that superior technology was not needed as long as you could field overwhelming number. Meanwhile, realizing the conceptual impasse of competing in a symmetrical arms race, the US decided to create of a new gen of weapons that first saw battle in 1991 w/the MARS-2 in Iraq.
American MLRS systems fundamentally differed from their Soviet counterparts before they even began design. For the USSR, MLRS were considered as a means of creating a dense fire shaft. The US designed its MRLS as a tool capable of breaking the Soviets’ overwhelming numerical artillery superiority with speedy + surgically accurate strikes.
By itself, from the POV of technology, the M270 did not represent something that would be an order of magnitude superior to its competitors. On the contrary, the impressive results of its combat use were dictated primarily by advanced tactics and an extremely efficient doctrine. The installation did not have a radical superiority in range over Soviet weapons - its trump card was accuracy, mobility and constant work in conjunction with reconnaissance equipment.
Value of Soldiers: WWII also had a particularly strong influence on militaries’ perception of the value of a person who was both the main driving force of war + the main factor limiting the combat effectiveness of the armed forces. The West and the Soviets arrived at opposite conclusions: the US embarked on combining technology paired with intensive individual training and professionalism to exponentially increase the potential of the modest soldier. The Soviets OTH continued to develop the vicious concepts of the WWI: the soldier was an asset of no value - an insignificant addition to the masses of armored columns and the creeping barrage of tens of thousands of missiles and shells.
A concept the Russians never discarded despite declining birth rates, especially in russia which has a negative growth rate, and losing most of its population centers after the break up of the USSR. While the world was had an overabundance of youth in the early 20th century, the value of human capital in the armies grew exponentially. As technology became more and more complex, sophisticated and deadly high-precision weapons, replenishing the ranks of the armed forces exponentially more difficult and expensive. The era of being able to sacrifice million upon million to war was as antiquated as a calvary charge and just as ineffective.
Excellent addition to Perun's presentation...
I hope we never finds out what tactic is working when put against each other in full force!
The suicide drones could be a way to combine both. Cost effective with high numbers without sacrificing a lot of soldiers. It could also just be an opening in the defenses that is easy to close with cheaper air defenses.
well said. many people just don't get this.
Yeah if anything the 'human resource' has emerged yet again in that you can't have 80IQ bumpkins operating anything more complicated than a hammer and cat herding all the smart guys into the infantry after no weeks training is a foolish and potentially generation annihilating error. A lot of the machines in the field now are all about harnessing that processing power and you really do need the highly skilled, dedicated and clever folks running them to get the most out of them.
Hopefully a lot more military forces will focus on that career aspect of the job, retain the employees for as long as possible and come up with an engaging reason for them to stay in those jobs going from being merely skilled operators to experts that can in turn, train the next generation on that living memory of how stuff works.
@@lubricustheslippery5028 This war has just been super interesting to see such an insane variety of systems from an equally insane variety of generations paired an even more insane variance in troop and command quality. It’s like if a little kid kept saying “what would if you took a A and tried to do B against C.” Thank god Russia’s reconnaissance has been god awful or this war could look very different right now.
As a 25 plus year Air Defense Artillery Officer, SHORAD and Missile Defense, this was my favorite video you have done yet!!! Please keep up the awesome work!!
I wish the Canadian Armed Forces has that job.
"The missle scans the area, detects the emissions from the SAM system, then goes and introduces itself." Gold.
"The bloke on the Front is looking for a day one Patch, Not 3 years of early access."
The Zeitgeist of your innuendos are what makes these Power Point presentations top tier.
Aaaaaaaaa finally. I've noticed that, when a new episode of my favorite TV show comes on, I'm like: Geez, has it been a week already? Time flies! But when I'm waiting for a new lecture on defense economics and strategy, I'm like: 3 days? How can it be 3 days??? Feels like I've been waiting for 3 weeks! I need my stuff!
Hah. Same.
I prefer your channel for information about the war, because, not only do you do a good job of giving a fairly unbiased account of what has actually happened, but you offer explanations on the how and why of it all.
i really appreciate that.
Perun, I'm serious in saying that this has become one my weekly things I actually look forward too.
It's like having an audiobook with a new chapter every week.
Now it has become a routine to listen in on a new video every Monday in the train. Thanks for making these videos, I know you'll make it big in RUclips.
I just wanted to say how refreshing it is to have in depth analysis of the ukraine war. One that not only covers systems, but war economy and geopolitics. Allot of what goes into to a sucessfull campaign is overlooked by people at home because talking about economics isn't as "sexy" as discussing the features of an attack helicopter or MBT. You have definitely found an audience of war nerds though that appreciate those all too important details! Excellent work!
I'm not a war nerd. But I appreciate there are people who are professionally interested in the matters of defending Sweden. And Perun's presentations makes me understand even better the complexities of the matter. I'm an economist, and from that perspective, it's obvious that Russia can not win this war, if the west doesn't allow it. But still Perun explained the economics of war in an interesting way for me.
@minuteman360 - Perun's light-speed astronomical growth on RUclips after starting these logistics/arms acquisition videos makes me think...
Maybe there is a much bigger market out there for nerdy in-depth detailed analyses?
Maybe all those sensationalized RUclips and cable news channels have just got us all wrong?
Maybe there is a quite substantial audience out there for this kind of thing - an audience whose intellect and curiosity has been severely underestimated.
Anyway, I sure hope more channels come to this realization and provide us with a smorgasbord of food-for-thought in the very near future!
@@velvetmagnetta3074 The sensationalised media isnt wrong. What they do is the best at getting what they want: cheap, easy to make, assembly lined content with maximum audience. The in depth audience is just severely underserved
"Amateurs study strategy and tactics, professionals study longestics "
@@mdd4296 People also are desperate for more than just "the Russians/Ukrainiens took this town or place"
They want more information especially in these trying times, so perun gives em the best
As a finn, I really don't have any clue how FDF weapons and material keeps getting popping up in Ukraine. 😇
Santa Claus must be working overtime this autumn. 🤭
So he is the one stealing AA equipment from Finland. What a dick.
🎁🎁🎁🌲, it's a Christmas miracle
Well, as long as the Finns aren't too bent out of shape that their material keeps ending up in Ukraine, I guess we will just have to consider this a mystery!
I agree. He's a suspect, since Santa lives in Rovaniemi, in Finland.😉
A committee will be established to investigate this matter in due time. They will make a thorough multidisciplinary investigation and publish the report. It will be available in town of Peräjoki ("Backriver"), in city hall basement toilet. The lights and stairs will be out of use. On the toilet door it will read: "beware of the angry badger".
Your work makes ordinary people informed about the internal machinations of warfare and it’s strategies.
And I appreciate it.
Can’t tell you how excited I am for EVERY release on this channel. Thanks for your care and attention to detail.
As someone who has concentration problems your format with PowerPoint helps me keep up.
As my brain starts to struggle with what you are saying, it feels like a minute time lag, the visual helps to lock my concentration in place.
Thank you.
I don't know how useful this will be but changing the tempo of the video really helps for me. I find 1.5x speed really helps me stay focused and retain information better. Ymmv but might be worth seeing if it helps because its been life changing for me with education.
@@AJPMUSIC_OFFICIAL thank you.
The video descriptions contain the chapter headings. So I’ll click back to the beginning of a chapter on occasion if my mind wanders a bit.
@@AJPMUSIC_OFFICIAL same here, but I switch from 1.5 to 1.25 and back occasionally.
I look forward to your video every week. Keep up the good work and thank you for the effort you put into these.👍
His gaming background/analytical approach suits well? It's interesting to consider that the gaming industry has effectually created a whole universe of "war game" practitioners? Running widely dispersed sims throughout the industrialized west.. as a flipping hobby/recreational activity?? 😂😂 Are these mainframe defense contractor grade? No...but they're amazingly close, plus one can't argue that throwing hundreds of thousands of consoles and players @ it has a "Brute force" computing component...that is arguably undeniable?
Edit: autocorrect error.. LOL
@@patrickjordan2233 I strongly suspect he actually works with this as a daytime job as well.
@@andersgrassman6583 he's a gamer/coder.. his other channel will demonstrate what his day gig is...
Drone PvP sounds like something a lot of peeps would be interested in. Harnessing all the game controller technique that gamers have honed, into a well organized territorial defense or after school activity for kids could be quite interesting.
inb4 we have fleets of 6 foot prop planes duking it out with 4mm needle guns.
I was idly wondering about how you would arm a small, cheapish drone for taking out small, cheapish loitering munitions and the problem of weight. The first thing that popped into my head was "a swarm of angry bees", but even at 1,200rpm I wonder how close you'd have to get for your .22LR ball to be able to actually shred an airborne fibreglass monocoque. Or injection-moulded plastic or however Iran et al makes them.
@@aaronleverton4221
Flak? Though I guess getting burst charges on such small ammunition may be a bit difficult. Planes went away from 50 cal in aircraft to be able to pack enough explosives to do meaningful damage in a few hits.
@@Appletank8 Against stress-metal skinned planes. And then from cannon to missiles.
All of which fails on the like-for-like costs analysis Perun brought up.
What is a cheaper munition than rimfire .22?
@@aaronleverton4221
Airsoft BBs but steel?
In a previous life, I flew the F-111. Based on the videos I’ve seen, the fixed wing pilots are flying at least twice as high as we did in day/clear weather conditions. They look to be a couple hundred feet. We flew at 50-100’ - one to one and a half wingspans.
Also, the first photos of crashed planes are of shoot downs that occurred high enough for the plane to lose all its forward speed and pancake into the ground.
I did also, we nearly always flew at night. My recollection was the lowest TFR setting was 200 feet and we flew that at least 480-540kts. Below that far too many objects intruded into the flight path, many trees, buildings, miscellaneous posts, masts, light poles etc are 50-100 feet high. Also it is a favourite height for birds.
Too low and you dont have time for target acquisition and self fragging with bombs etc becomes a big problem.
I started my career on USAF SHORAD at Lakenheath and there were F-111F with F-15C/D there. They could fly to Poland and back unrefueled they were that long legged but replaced by F-15E in my short spell on AD. I recall liking the Thunderbirds noise F-15s make but the F-111s were damn loud.
You also had a radar based terrain following system that could fly you that low right? Or are you talking about hand-flying at those altitudes routinely?
That’s the TFR he mentioned, Terrain Following Radar. Tornadoes had a few settings and many couldn’t handle the hardest setting at very low alt for long but it was for very, very low alt in high threat areas.
Swedish air force used to fly at "yes" level, without terrain following radars.. Or as we use to say "Take off, retract gear, descend to flight level". Returning home with tree branches stuck in your aircraft was common and so were accidents. That's just what you do if you don't want to get spotted/shot down, these are definitely still flying high up. These days the lowest level is more restricted as radars will still find you down there though. I still enjoy flying at treetop level in simulators and games though, just feels natural.
Ah that time of the week when you get that notification 😁
WOOHOO! My girlfriend always gets SUPER excited when a new power point drops! Lol 😆
@DiversityIsOurStrength PERUNABOO 😂
Dude, you are the reason I watch you tube. Your analysis is what is lacking in the news today and it's lacking for a reason. I believe that they want us ignorant. Your efforts make a huge difference in that battle and I hope you continue what your doing and I'll be here as long as you do
Our weekly dose of a 1 hour long power point presentation
The most beautiful thing to wake up to; PowerPoint analytics to start the day. Been waiting for this ♥️
Looks like I wasn't alone in anxiously awaiting your video today. Great work, thank you for all your hard work.
"Hey, if you came to Patreon to keep me funded when YT demonetized let me know and I can refund you." Who is this man? What did we do to deserve this kind of treatment? What a hero!
Thanks, Perun, your insight is really valuable. I had no idea why Russian and Ukraine aircraft were flying so low until now. All the information about air defences blows my mind, lol.
Man Perun, you are a class act. You make great content. But offering to refund Patreons who signed up when you were briefly demonetized is truly remarkable. I haven't joined your Patreon, but your willingness to give refunds makes me want to sign up. You're a good person, thanks for everything and keep up the great work!
Time to hit another entertaining and informative one hour presentation from a favorite YTber. Thanks, Perun!
The phrase "The British 1957 Defense whitepaper, remember. . . " Pretty much sums up the vibe of this channel. Perun gently and politely "reminds" you of details you've never known or encountered. But he does it so graciously that it never feels like he's talking down to you.
In toast masters you learn it's one thing to keep someone attention for 10seconds, then a minute, ten minutes.
You've got a real gift for these presentations as they always fly by.
I learn so much, you a great presentation, and I love your humor.
from obscure gaming channel to best powerpoint presentation channel ever. What a change. And a very good one. I highly appreciate your videos - I have started to follow you pre-war and was amazed by your first video about the Ukraine mess. Now I am impatiently waiting for every video you upload.
The gaming channel is still there under PerunGamingAU
@@Carewolf i miss dominions gameplay
It's impressive to see the West supplying more capable SAM systems now that can counter both cruise missiles (what few Russia has left to target playgrounds with at any rate) and aircraft alike.
That said I am concerned with their logistical burden of trying to integrate older S-300 and Buk systems still in UAF service with the NATO gear. Here's hoping the West's brilliant logisticians can smooth over the problems that could inevitably surface.
The sheer variety of donated systems is an issue, I hope the support given is generous and op sec means little is said about it.
There are NATO countries that operate the S300, surely they can help with that.
@@exarder1377 Yes, there are, but not in the quantities that would be needed to support Kyiv to the extent that they require. Greece and Slovakia come to mind, but Slovakia already donated its only S-300 battery a few months back if I remember correctly.
The transition to Western equipment means new equipment, training and spare parts for maintenance increases. This could probably all go against the backdrop of an army in transition from bulks of Soviet equipment to Western standard.
It’s probably simpler to give them assigned zones rather than work in the same space.
It sounds like each region is getting a separate system instead if just having everything overlap. The extra air defenses is to cover civilian populations which is much larger than the frontlines.
Mr Perun. You are a good man! Your are a level A+ analyst, this is clear from your content, but you are a good man for making your comment on Patreon refunding if it's necessary. My level of commitment has grown from "I like this guy, he nows what he is doing" to "I respect this guy, he is really committed to his audience". I love you broe, keep on going! (Sorry for being overly informal. It's just the way I'm feeling now!)
I very much look forward to our weekly update from Perun!!!! Honestly I pray for a quick peaceful end to this conflict, yet I hope that Perun will pick another conflict to review and share his insight with us every week. BTW I also am so impressed by the comments section, Perun subscribers and chat contributors are considerate and well informed. Thank you all for the knowledge and insights you share, This is the only channel that i read the comments on with anticipation. My humble respect to you all. Perun, Please keep all your research and consider writing a book on this conflict. I would love to buy a signed first edition.
Very well said..l also look forward to his crisp analysis of this conflict,having said that..Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦.
I have a wide array of sources but your power points get priority every time. Thank you for what you do.
This is the only channel where I’ve sat refreshing the sub box in anticipation. I’m a Perun addict and I don’t have a problem!
I am fully addicted to Perun's content. So consistently great.
There are different cost differential comparisons you can make, I suppose.
1. simple cost of attacking object vs. cost of defending object
2. cost of attacking object + value/cost of a successfully defended asset (like electric grid infrastructure) vs. cost of defending object
To make a robust analysis of whether your defense is economically viable you'd have to look at both.
Top Level Quality, Perun. Well done, as always.
Absolutely fantastic video. You are definitely one of the best content creators for this subject.
One of my assignments as a contractor in aerospace design was at a medium range drone builder. It brought to mind the vulnerability of the system, and how it might might be countered. Autonomous interceptor drones are likely to be a thing in areas where electronic jamming is not strong enough to effect the vehicles ability to control itself. EMP rounds that generate both a pulse and some shrapnel (the EMP pulse is generated by a conventional explosive moving through the pulse generator, destroying it at the same time)...are another possibility. Shrike style loitering munition that builds itself a picture of where the control trailer is located, and goes after that.
A detailed, informative answer to "what airdefense doing". Thanks.
Great video as always, but i think you missed two very important points on this topic:
1) Russia cant use its anti radiation missiles primarily not because pilots lack of training(still could be the case) but because most of the time Ukrainian ПВО do not radiate at all. Nato and Ukraine managed to build very capable system: Nato ДРЛО and reconnaissance aircrafts are constantly flying over Ukrainian borders and feed their data to Ukrainian ПВО stations via starlink, so they do not expose themselves, and turn on radars only if there is real threat to lock on(maybe not only aircrafts, but some reconnaissance satellites are involved too).
2) I am not sure about Антоновский bridge, but on artillery warehouses in Донбас region Ukraine used this tactics when they launched HIMARS attacks: short time before launching GMLRS rockets, they launched cheaper less-precision munitions to the same area to overload and exhaust ПВО, and this drastically increased chances for GMLRS rockets to reach the target. So, not that Russian ПВО is completely incapable to intercept GMLRS, but there were smart tactics involved. Actually the same tactics were used by Azerbaijan in 2020 Karabakh war - they converted to unmanned many old AN-2, overloaded and exposed Armenian ПВО with them and destroyed it with Harops and other drones.
I have some old experience from the airforce early 80ties and the Swedish airforce has allways been flying dangerously low (avoid russians) I had a boss that was an ex fighter pilot and 50 % of his generation was lost in peace time flying, mostly low level, flying into things. So yes its dangerous
that sounds... stupid.
@@dan7564 likely meant to say 50% of losses were due to accidents, not 50% of all pilots were lost.
@@gregorhellmundt9559 that makes much more sense, thank you.
I live near the former Iron Curtain. When I went to school, i rode the bus for about 6miles to the next town, along the river valley of the Weser. There were multiple instance when I could look DOWN! on fighter aircraft inside the valley, avoiding Soviet radar.
With regards to losses: If they flew the "Starfighter" which was also called "widowmaker", they had a bad loss rate due to accidents. But not 50%.
@@donaldduck830 Apparently the Luftwaffe lost 292 of their 916 Starfighters (32%), resulting in the deaths of 115 pilots.
This is legit the only time I actually enjoy sitting through a lecture
I am one of those who eagerly awaits the next vid. This is the only channel I can say that of. Most of my specific praise would only echo what others have already said. So here's a personal one. Thank you for NOT using background music. At my age I find it a distraction, even though I only FEEL like I'm two centuries old. Cheers mate.
Proud to see a fellow Aussie produce some of the best analysis of this conflict. The attention and praise you're receiving is well deserved, Perun. Wish it was in better circumstances than an active war but thank you for sharing insights in a format the average person can understand.
Honestly P. How you are not working as an A Level advisor for the Pentegon os beyond me. Incredible analysis. And engaging.
From past comments it sounds like he's involved with Australian defense (Aussie defense is the one defense topic he has put out of bounds for this channel), probably working on the infinitely more complex emu threat.
Who says he isn't 😉 ?
At least he is working for Australia
@@thevoxdeus You can't mention the Great Emu War without highlighting the covert ops against the Drop Bear insurgency.
He works somewhere in the Australian defense industry/military.
Just bought Terra Invicta last week cuz of you. Despite being in early access it one of the best 4X games I've ever played. Had a few sleepless nights playing it already. Also, your guides are very necessary to understand the incredibly complex mechanics.
You and me both. Hit me right in the ADHD, Terra Invicta did.
"Well, I bought it and it's downloaded, might as well try it out."
"...Wait, why is it 3AM?"
@@diestormlie So much this.
I remember doing my Junior Commander Course and hating every minute of the PP presentations we had to sit through, now I come here for enjoyment.
The depth of knowledge on a very specific facet of the modern battlefield is truly astonishing. Another excellent, informative video!
As always, great high quality and well researched video.
Loving it!
The utmost respect for the viewers is one of the most impressive aspects (of many impressive aspects) of this channel.
The statement about being refunded is just one example of this.
I really hope that the channel continues long after Russia has been defeated and driven out of Ukraine!
After 8 months of watching at least 1 Perun video per week, I routinely find myself vastly more informed on the UKR/RUS war than others with whom I discuss geopolitics. These videos are the cream of the crop.
same, and i regularly talk with some journalists writing about the matter int he local newspaper. (usually they do pretty good stuff about local issues, but here they are just out of their depth ofc)
You always fail to disappoint! As usual, you leave me asking for more, more, more!
Excellent content as always and thank you for speaking so clearly - it allows watching fast forwarded and still parsing everything
Just once again: thank you for your effort, quality standard and humor.
Bro, your presentations are so good, I watch them more than once.
Edit: they get better and better with each iteration lmao
Fantastic channel. I appreciate your honesty and bull sht free presentation of facts with context. Doing this free of sensationalism and keeping me present through an hour slideshow is a testament to your knowledge depth.
The subtext in this presentation and in several others you have done is the challenge posed by inexpensive but very effective systems that are difficult to counter without expending assets worth far more than the attacking system. We shall see what smart engineers dream up!
Fantastic channel. Please don't change anything. Your documentary style is better than most traditional TV. You have shown an interesting side to a career that I never knew existed before.
Every time Perun releases a new video, I learn something I don't get from many other sources. This particular video has been exceptionally interesting to me. Hats off
Get in. PowerPoint time! Your timing on current affairs is on point.
Appreciate the content. It's nice to hear someone talk about these subjects without the prejudice of politics. You're knowledgeable and concise. I appreciate the effort that must go into correlating and presenting information in a way that is not "dumbed down" but still easy for most people to grasp. I have a basic understanding of most of the subjects you cover but even if I didn't you make the general concepts and even the more complex ones easy to understand and that is no small feat considering the subject nature. Just wanted to say thanks for all the effort. It's appreciated. And please keep the long format vids. It's nice to get the deep dives. Keep up the awesome work man.
This video is amazing. Unbiased, documented, wonderful. I look forward to see a permanent round-table like committee formed by you, Ryan McBeth, Anders Puck Nielsen doing a TV-style daily commentary.
I am one of his dumber audience. He has introduced me to an entire new world, not one I would have chosen to need or desire knowledge about in the usual walk of my life. However, with our world rapidly evolving I feel the need to educate myself in a non dramatic factual based basis. Just the facts, Mamun. Knowing more about how the military worldwide works and its strengths and weaknesses actually makes me feel more secure. So, thank you Perun...please continue to educate me in the world we now find ourselves in.
As an American, I’m investing into Raytheon, GD, Lockheed, e.t.c. Seems to be the only place to make money. Also I’m so happy to hear people like you and Denys were re monetized!!!!!
You do far better to invest with the major Tech company's. For example Jeff Bezos with just his personal fortune could buy the top 10 defense contractors by simply writing a check. The combined value of Amazon, alphabet (google), Apple, META (facebook) is dozens of times more than essentially ALL defense contractors combined.
Defense stocks are typically considered good long term average growth and safe stocks. But they are not considered high growth make money quick stocks. No defense stock will ever do what Pfizer did in the last year which is essentially go from 80 to 400 due to the government funded forced imposition of vaccinations Where the producer has been completely Shielded by the participating governments from any and all liability. A fat income with 0 liability is what you're looking for in order to make money.
Ahhh, finally, now to get my fix again.
Perun, your content is addicting.
So hard to find good in depth long form content nowadays.
My dad went to West Point, and recommended this channel to me!
At some point i want a reel of all of Perun-jokes so far.
It's stunning how well you blend top-tier comedy with top-tier analysis and competence.
The thing is, he does not miss a beat as he reels them off, and then you do a double take because it was sooooooooooo dry.
However, some of his serious one liners are also absolute gems, and if you get these into that book as well, he will refund you the difference.
So in gaming terms, due to introduction of new units (small cheap drones) and changes in stats of some units (SAM, IADS), some old units got nerfed (conventional air assets) and new tactics (using massed cheap drones to deplete IADS ammunitions) have emerged.
With more future re-balancing updates incoming (more drones, drone defenses, stealth), no one quite knows what the new meta will be in air warfare.
An interesting concept for the future, is when a fighter jet is more of a command plattform, accompanied by perhaps like five smaller drones / remote control & AI / fighters.
Really waiting for the pentagon to introduce the new meta disrupting 6th gen fighters
@@andersgrassman6583 Why not a platform like a B52/Tanker combination?
And 50 drones?
Can you do that again, but use a car analogy?
@@andersgrassman6583 I watched a video from a mil blogger on just that topic a couple of months ago, I'll go see if I can find it.
Here we go: ruclips.net/video/lMr7thd7qh0/видео.html
Super excited to watch this. I absolutely devoured you back catalog last week. Keep on making good content man!
The fact that hard data and application of basic logic without hyperbole commentary are used makes this one of the best channels on the military reality of Ukraine. Really interesting and educational!
A few of my hours every day are spent drawing my comic. A lot of steps in that process are not very mentally engaging. Videos like yours help me fight off the unknowable evil, that tries to eat my brain... also called boredom.
As The Small Cheap Drone Swarms Become Ever More Used I Wouldn't Be Surprised If The Good Old Flak Batteries Made A Comeback.
Especially With Integrated Modern Targeting Systems.
That does make a lot of sense. With better targeting, that balances out the relative cost issue
Hell i predict that the same AA guns on many ships (you know the ones, the hydrophilliac cousin of the A-10 )would become regular by 2080 thanks to revelations this war makes conserning Aircraft going low if shown dillemas, that is of course if we ever reach that year in the first place
Need more cheap drones with guns as part of AA.
@@ebrim5013 not possible unless you count the size of a car and only 10 seconds of ammo as "cheap", more reliable to just have counter drone capabilities with shrapnel to disrupt swarms fucking matrix style
(Reason regular drones with guns is impossible is ammo storage and weight meaning more fuel and slower flight)
maybe some modernisied version of a Gepard AA tank is called for to shoot down all those cheap drones
Thank you for all your research and work, and I second your thanks to whoever is doing subtitles for you.
Still highly pedagogic. You learn lots of things that are teached to you in a pleasant, efficient, complete and original way. Thanks Perun for your work !
Thank YOU Perun. I can't say how many people I have recommended to watch your content.