Russia's Allies - How will Iran, Syria & North Korea impact the war in Ukraine?
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- Опубликовано: 29 май 2024
- Over the last several months I've spent a great deal of time (and will spend more time) looking at the role that Ukraine's friends and allies have played in supporting its war-effort. This has included the provision of funds, weapons, humanitarian aid and the taking in of millions of Ukrainian refugees.
Against the backdrop of that assistance, it's easy to paint Russia as entirely isolated, a pariah state without friends to turn to.
While it may not have the allies that Ukraine does, that is obviously not entirely true. From Iranian drones to North Korean shells, there are signs that Russia is turning to friendly or allied powers for the tools it needs to carry on its war - and in this episode we look at those nations and what impact they've had so far...and may have in the future.
Patreon:
/ perunau
Further Reading:
Relating to the DPRK:
Example of the 100,000 claim -
www.news.com.au/world/europe/...
US claims on ammunition sales
www.politico.com/news/2022/11...
DPRK denials:
www.theguardian.com/world/202...
Articles relating to Syria:
The Guardian "20,000 mercenaries" claim -
www.theguardian.com/world/202...
Putin approving the use of Middle Eastern fighters -
www.reuters.com/world/europe/...
Tracking Syrian losses in the Civil War
www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/...
Carnegie on the Syrian mercenaries claim -
carnegieendowment.org/sada/87382
RE: CENTCOM statement
www.al-monitor.com/originals/...
Recruitment efforts
www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/4...
english.aawsat.com/home/artic...
Iran:
Stoltenberg statement on the potential supply of ballistic missiles:
www.reuters.com/world/iran-co...
Western claims on Iranian missile supply:
www.theguardian.com/world/202...
Iran acknowledging drone shipments:
abcnews.go.com/International/...
CSTO:
TASS on Armenian requests for aid:
tass.com/world/1506567
Caveats:
The supply of weapons or troops by Russia's allies is obviously a matter of great secrecy - as a result, conclusions drawn here are based on available open source information and may not reflect any secret movements or aid
Regarding statements on Iranian or DPRK missile systems - these statements are general and based on assumed or projected paper capabilities. Accurate CEP data on all Iranian missiles compared to Iskander for example is not available.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Opening Words
00:03:12 - What Am I Covering?
00:03:49 - Not For Today: The PRC & Russia
00:05:01 - Russia's NATO: The CSTO
00:05:56 - The Commonwealth of Independent States
00:06:46 - Russia's NATO cont.
00:08:23 - Capabilities and Recent History
00:09:44 - Erosion
00:12:16 - DPRK (North Korea)
00:15:35 - Songun's Result
00:17:22 - A Deadly Museum
00:19:27 - Kim's Hundred Thousands
00:21:44 - Ammunition Transfers
00:22:41 - What Could Go?
00:25:25 - Impact & What Next?
00:27:50 - Assad's Syria
00:28:53 - An Ugly War
00:30:19 - Russian Intervention in Syria
00:32:29 - The Syrian Arab Army
00:33:36 - Syria & Ukraine
00:35:09 - The Phantom Mercenaries?
00:37:44 - Impact and What Next?
00:41:36 - Their Own War?
00:42:17 - Iran - Russian and the Islamic Republic
00:44:44 - The Web of Iranian Military Structures
00:47:39 - Iran & Ukraine
00:50:37 - War on the Cheap
00:52:50 - Impact & What Next
00:54:55 - Conclusions
00:57:33 - Channel Update
Every video usually has at least one error that makes it through editing and here it is for this video:
Uzbekistan is a former member of the CSTO, not an active one. Kyrgyzstan is the 6th current active member I mean to mention. I even have a cut slide with an overview of their military capabilities...but somehow missed that one in review.
I also repeatedly refer to Russia receiving "Ukrainian" drones rather than "Iranian" drones from Iran. Russia does receive Ukrainian drones of course, but usually only after they've been shot down or flown into their targets...
Sincere apologies for that one.
You can upload more than one video a day... 😉
'We don't make mistakes. We have happy little accidents.'
-Bob Ross-
Might want to pin that comment.
Can't really fault you for an error with the sheer scale of topics you cover but correcting them is important for credibility and trust
@@corvus_monedula yep it's pinned
Additional error: while referring to the shahed drones, you continually refer to it as *Ukrainian* drones supplied to Russia, rather than *Iranian* drones.
We as Iranians are trying very hard to topple the regime, so hopefully we can soon aid Ukraine instead.
Slava Ukraini
Wish you lots of luck from Italy, you deserve better, you deserve more, fuck the Iranian regime and its allies
I am following the events closely. Iranians have showed amazing courage 👏 . I hope you are successful. I also learned a lot about your people and I was ashamed of how much misinformation I was believing.
Based and revolution pilled
ukraine will be annihilated
Very best wishes with your efforts!
"Mom! Can we get some NATO?"
"No son, we have NATO at home."
The NATO at home...
It was NATO, but they ordered it on Wish
Lol these comments are so stupid
..... Im giggling like a 10 year old.
I love it !
The cherry on top is that ripoff compass emblem.
'Discount NATO' (some assembly impossible)
That is one fine looking collective defense alliance.
WHY DOESN’T MINE LOOK LIKE THAT?!?!
Perun really said "it's PowerPointing time!" and then PowerPointed all over our screens.
And you liked it
truly one of the PowerPoints of all time
I CLAPPED I CLAPPED WHEN HE SAID THE THING
I was looking for the power point comment, it did not disappoint
It’s what we all came here for haha
I'm a bit let down by the fact that you didn't mention Kyrgyzstan/Tajikistan border conflict in the Erosion section. It is a bit more recent than Armenia vs Azerbaijan and is very notable because it was an armed conflict between two CSTO members. It caused calls for leaving CSTO in Kyrgyzstan and the country missed the latest training as a result. This is big because it puts the organisation's credibility into question within CSTO countries.
I went back and forth on that one - in the end cutting it was probably overly aggressive on my part. I'll try to find a way to pick up on it in future.
@Perun No worries. Kyrgyzstan is overlooked very often by both russian and western media (most likely because its very small, poor, and has very little influence in the region). I struggled to find articles that go into details of what exactly happened at the border and the event was almost unanimously shrugged off as "yet another border conflict".
Really looking forward to hear your opinion on it and the military capabilities of Central Asian countries.
Love your channel, your long time viewer from Bishkek! 🇰🇬
@@PerunAU You could always make short mini-vids that you mention/link to.
That way if you can't find an excuse to fit things into one presentation you can make a self contained addendum.
Plus if the algorithm punishes you for that you can always link to them/add them to a playlist but leave them otherwise unlisted. I hear that skirts the algo problem while leaving then discoverable to interested viewers.
It's just an idea though, i don't have any inside perspective on YT shenanigans.
@@Dewkeeper that's potentially genius - they would have to be unlisted though. the algorithm would punish small niche aside videos quite badly (which would in turn impact the rest of my content).
I will look into it.
@@PerunAU Maybe they could be posted through community posts?
CSTO 2022 Status Report:
- Russia and Belarus are losing a war of choice that they launched against their neighbor.
- Armenia is being shot at by its neighbor.
- Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are shooting at EACH OTHER.
- Kazakhstan is recovering from civil unrest and desperately trying to keep its head down.
Sounds like that treaty has, indeed, collectively secured its members.
There is no honor among thieves.
It's like a clown show 🤣
very collectively secure
@@koskok2965 Yes, there is no way Ukraine can win, surely. Keep telling yourself that.
@@Self-replicating_whatnot I mocked the illusion that Ukraine is winning. Never said Russia has won.
The saying went „Warsaw pact ist the only military alliance attacking solely its own members“. Same applies for CSTO.
Both Warsaw Pact and CSTO originated from a "one ring to rule them all" idea from a feudalist nation with imperial aspirations.
Feels like all nations except Armenia joined CSTO in order to not get attacked by Russia itself.
@@alexandervandevelde2311 why single out Armenia like that? Belarus was not threatened by Russia and so do many other states in CSTO probs
@@user-kt7li4le8s The CSTO was absolutely a way to protect themselves from Russia. Those who escaped west did, those who couldn’t joined the CSTO, but the CSTO has spent most of its existence falling apart and fighting itself. One of its members is being openly critical of it saying it doesn’t fulfil its purpose anymore and its 2nd largest member Kazakhstan has been openly against Russia in this Ukraine fiasco even more so once it got support from China and as soon as Kazakhstan didn’t tow the line Russian media and politicians are saying things like “Kazakhstan is basically Russia” which shows just how much the CSTO is worth in practice.
@@user-kt7li4le8s Because Armenia has a more immediate threat in Azerbaijan. And the point is still valid, even if Belarus wasn't threatened by Russia.
Perun: "the CIS"
Me: *uncontrollable giggle*
Perun: "not the star wars one"
Me: :x
Yo Perun, serious high quality content dropping like JDAMs, as usual. Thank you, mate
and then I occasional drop a complete flub like saying "Ukrainian" rather than "Iranian." But even JDAM has a failure rate right?
@@PerunAU man, for us, your sardaukars of the internet, we dont even notice such small "failures".
I guess that the CEP on that one has get the job done anyway
@@Mefostofiles84 thats true. Even if Perun lost his voice and all commentary was throat singing I would listen anyway! Long liv Paddishah Imperator Shaddam Peruno the Fourth, lord of Powerpoint!
@@PerunAU even the sun has spots my dude
@@jerekalevijarvinen1389 wow Bro Imma use this quote, this line is actually cool
Another Sunday morning. Another lecture I’m excited to listen to!
On the subject of Syrian mercenaries, I recall reading that the Wagner Group has employed Syrians over the years, though usually for non-combat roles like guarding oil fields in Libya. These Syrians tended not to be elite, hardened warriors, but rather desperate men in need of a paycheck in a burned-out husk of a country. And even then, supposedly a lot of them felt mistreated and improperly supplied on their Wagner tours and weren't inclined to sign up again.
I also know that Turkey has deployed Syrian mercenaries in various conflicts, but those are presumably drawn from the anti-Assad side of the conflict.
Azerbaijan had confirmed usage of Syrian mercenaries during its 2020 war with Armenia. Granted that's a lot closer to home for them, plus many of them may have been Turkmen speakers.
My cousins were among the Wagner mercenaries. Wagner is disgusting and void of all humanity. This is coming from Syrians that love Russia.
LPR blogger said Syrian mercs fought in Popasna but got wrecked by airstrikes and artillery, he also said they would sell some of their gear to the LPR guys before leaving.
There was a bunch of pics of arab corpses in trenches and foxholes posted months ago around the Popasna area too, we know they aren't Chechen because they had Wagner patches on their uniforms.
We have so many syrian refugees in my country now, and im so glad theyre here.
Just like the Ukranians who are here, so many children among them who don't deserve this at all.
I want them safe, instead of some resorting to desperate mercenary work like this in desperation for money to feed themselves, or stuck in homes that have become urban battlefields.
I wish the eastern conflicts like this would be covered more to show how awful these wars are.
The focus is on ukraine now which i support, but my heart also breaks for all the others, and there's so many.
@@zarahandrahilde9554 theirs only so many people your bog standard person can bleed their heart out for
Apparently the Russian- Chinese "friendship without limits" does have A LOT of limits. Odd that either party would lie 🤔
China plays a long game. A weakened Russia gives China a cheap source of petroleum and other natural resources (due to sanctions forcing Russia to sell at a discount), and keeps the West focused away from their own malfeasance. China would like to keep this going on as a low level bleed to Russia. China will scoop up Russia’s clients in the armaments market and Russia will become China’s client state.
China has been found to be providing russia intelligence assistance with satalites and what not.
@@marclaplante5679 and perhaps reclaim some of the eastern parts of Russia that they have historical claims on and probably scoop up some closer ties with Central Asian countries (the Stan's) after Russia has been degraded to the point where they can no longer influence them. WHAT A GREAT FRIENDSHIP!
"special acquaintances arrangement"
"Friendship without limits" sounds like FWB without a safe word 🤣
No Syrians or Koreans were hurt in Ukraine during the production of this video 😁 Precise and concise as usual. Top quality assessment. Keep it up Perun!
Koreans in Ukraine is pure western propaganda, so funny pro Ukrainians use their own propaganda to then make jokes.
a satirical dagger to the heart
IIRC one Korean died, but fighting for Ukraine. So I guess he probably was a South Korean.
When you say "Koreans" I think of K-pop boybands, Overwatch gamers and studious college students, but of course you're talking about Koreans who are being used as slave laborers, potential mercenaries and weapons suppliers. It's fucking insane how different those two Koreas are
@@Toe_Merchant I've worked with South Koreans in the military. They are hard fuckers - very impressive lot.
A minor anecdote on ammunition shelf-life: in 1984 I was tasked with disposing of WW1 .303 ammunition - 1916 & 1917 - it was still about 90% viable after 67 years.... but that still equates to 1-2 failures per Bren magazine, which gives you an idea how effective that would (not) be in real use.
Artillery consumables have accuracy issues -- if the charge that fires the shell from a howitzer or a mortar doesn't produce the required amount of energy due to ageing of the propellant then the shell will fall short of the target. We are seeing a lot of very long-range artillery firing in various videos (very high barrel angles, ca. 40 degrees or so) with claimed ranges of forty or even fifty kilometres. Having a shell drop a kilometre short of the target because the charge only produced 90% of what it should means that shot was effectively useless. At shorter ranges that could mean the shell falling on friendly forces close to the enemy.
Rocket artillery suffers from the same accuracy/range problem, compounded (no pun intended) by the possible degradation of the rocket motor's chemical composition itself causing it to fail more spectacularly on ignition and without the strength of a howitzer breech around it to contain anything that wants to go sideways.
@@robertsneddon731 You are of course right. I was referring solely to total failure (of the primer in this case). Although in the context of rifle ammunition, I suspect the mobiliski may not notice accuracy degradation before that point.
I've shot tons of 60+ year old bullets, they usually work fine if they're stored properly. Explosives have a tendency to get tricky (and possibly unstable) with age though.
I hope one day you make a video about Transnistria, Moldavia, and the connections of that conflict with the current Russian invasion of Ukraine
@@Salarat source?
@@Salarat yeah, and a few years ago they wanted to open up a consulate in Tiraspol because many Transnistrians have Ukraine pasaports. It really shows how violent and chaotic was Eastern Europe after the Soviet collapse
@@Salarat Ironically the Transnistria conflict was, at least initially, the only post-Soviet war where Russian and Ukrainian nationalists were on the same side.
@@Salarat both
@@Salarat both
"The CIS, and no, not the one from Star Wars. " 🤣 I love how he genuinely felt the need to clarify that!
2:47 Not only is belarus supplying weapons, but they're also allowing their territory as routes for their soldiers to move through, I'd say that is also pretty important!
Perun already did a video solely on Belarus and probably considers this covered already
@@embreis2257 yeah, i just thought its a good note.
I would say Belarus is having an impact too, supplying heavy weapons, providing bases, launch- and deployment positions and binding some Ukrainian forces in the north.
I assume he didn't mention them since he already did a pretty thorough episode all about the role Belarus has played, what would happen if they got more involved, and why that probably won't happen.
Another thing they could do is supply training to the Russian conscripts. (Russia sent its' own trainers to fight.)
@@danielhall271 IIRC Anecdotally, Belarusian trainers get mad at you if you hit the target during target practice because the target is expensive. Plus more verifiably, movements of troops during civil unrest (away from the capital) and general sentiment in the population do not suggest overall enthusiasm for Russia and Luka's adventures.
@@neolexiousneolexian6079 I can't speak for actual Belarusian military training since I'm not dumb enough to serve lol, but we have a mandatory military training in school where you basically have an additional period for a year which you spend learning command structure, how to identify various ranks, how to disassemble Makarov and AK and other basics like that. Roughly translated it's called pre-conscription preparation. Then during summer holidays you are supposed to go to an actual military facility several times to do shooting practice, but the captain that was responsible for running the training with us said that the ammo we where supposed to use was lost so we just ended up drinking beer together and listening to him bitching about how military life sucks but atleast you can make some money by stealing shit. We also had to buy him beer and cigarettes for him to give us passing marks for our "training" lol.
There's a reason anyone that's actually interacted with our army laughs when they hear about the threat of Belarus invading Ukraine. Even most of Belarusian vatniks consider our army a joke and instead jerks off to the Russian army.
This. The mere fact that they give Russia access to their territory is incredibly important. Why does the US expand NATO, admitting literal s**thole countries and then forcibly grow bases all over their territory? Because ACCESS. Having a bigger chessboard to move in than your opponent is a major advantage.
Yess, my weekly dose of proper journalism and powerpoint presentations
I’d love to see you’re perspective on Arab military underperformance whether it’s culture like armies of the sand suggest or poor Soviet tactics/equipment.
Or maybe Armenia-Azerbaijan
Anyway keep up the best geopolitics content on RUclips !
I remember mby lawrence of arabia or some other brittish soldier who documented how the arabs fought during ww1. And how after a battle there was a feast, no major discipline etc. I know its a bit ols but maybe that could be the foundation for you to dig through?
Lack of military tradition.
When they rushed me through the academy there were people there teaching and occasionally consulting from retirement going all the way back to early Vietnam and the aftermath of Korea. Other lecturers had studied military science all the way from the Maurician Reforms (the first true firearms armies that relied on firearms rather saw them as support) to people of the Intendance who could tell you from Antiquity until now the how & why of logistics.
"I need a couple million and a bunch of ovens to build my own bakery" may not be the first thing you think of when your country starts preparing an offensive war, but it's the reason Russians aren't eating fresh bread until they happen to be able to loot it from civilian bakeries.
That's what the Intendance nerds are for, so they can follow their tradition and poof, suddenly you've much higher morale.
The Arab states don't have that. They came into being during the mid 20th century and are often badly handicapped by traditions of tyranny, tribalism, corruption and other things that get in the way of building a cohesive fighting force for a state.
So while Saudi Arabia may be able to throw giant piles of money at it and secure good equipment, what they can't buy is guys who've been doing it for 20-30 years and will happily explain to a bunch of rowdy 18-25 year olds why things need to be done as they say.
Hence why China is offering huge salaries for veterans to come teach in China. It's essentially allowing them to import military tradition off the shelf.
Second this, I would love to learn more of the reasons for modern Arab military incompetence.
There's an old video short video on the subject. Still would love if perun did his own video.
ruclips.net/video/cZk4Yu42g0I/видео.html
I wish there were more people like Perun on this platform, less flashy animation and simplified summaries and more in depth powerpoints. If there was this caliber of content for all the stuff you mentioned and more, I would spend all my time watching it.
Hey Perun, just for future reference, since you have been mentioning Bulgaria in recent videos - turns out the Bulgarian deal to repair Ukrainian armoured vehicles was a dud and none were ever shipped to Bulgaria for repair, due to low capacity and long repair timelines by the Bulgarian factories. Bulgaria did just now adopt a parliamentary resolution to provide military aid to Ukraine though, so maybe we will start seeing more meaningful amount of ammo making its way there.
Any chance you send them anything with the tag "100mm, 122 mm and 152 mm" and go full 155? I mean, every single piece of tube artillerie and ammo? Looking at the map and Bulgarian-Turkey relationships, it could be the perfect moment to completely offload all soviet equipment and get refunded in Brussels...
I know politically it might have been very dicy in the spring, but right now it seems like a very legit strategy to modernize.
Good on Bulgaria...! I dont pay much attention to Bulgarian politics other than hearing that they've made some odd decisions this last decade.
Glad to hear about this.
They didnt even control all of Luhansk either during the vote either, it was a small bit of land with a village, but seriously. No 100% control anywhere
The funniest bit was "Annexing" the whole of Zaporozhia when they didn't control the capital city of the oblast!
Hi Perun, first of all thanks for your great videos. For the Iran segment I would add an other detail. Irans leadership is faceing a big internal uprising right now and the whole country seems to be close to a revolution, which could further - even if the uprising is supressed - limit their capability to further supply russia (e.g. you can't ship weapons if your logistic system is on strike or imprisoned)
nah. not even close. protests in 2019 were ten times bigger. Ten thousand protestors now compared to hundreds of thousands in 2019. But I agree that the media makes it look like they will be a revolution any day now. Props to them.
every single one of your videos is so astonishing. so much depth, so much nuances.
it's not often, long videos get much views on youtube. one can only achieve that with great content.
and all of that in mostly one sitting? without script?
keep up the awsome work!
Sunday lunch, wonderful timing to enjoy another excellent lecture.
Greetings from Vienna
✌️🇺🇦
I get my Perun fix during breakfast. :) Greetings from Boston.
Der powerpoint war echt leiwand
17:24 On paper, Russia had pretty scary numbers as well before the war. Now after the invasion, we had a pretty clear look at the subpar condition of their equipment and personnel. So I doubt, NK have 60%+ of their equipment in working condition.
What do you think about the state of China's military? No way it's as corrupt as Russia's, right?
@Giotto_ This the difference between a force in being vs a deployed force. There is a force multiplier from forces unused.
From the term "Fleet in being". A Fleet in Being can project far more influence more widely.
Once deployed and engaged a force is no longer available for deployment in other areas that are now without a covering force or need additional forces to cover. Forces can now be diminished, further reducing their 'in being' influence , any deficiencies are revealed and can then be exploited. It is very hard to go back.
One thing: North Koreans are NOT Russians. These are asians, remember.
@@piotrd.4850 - Yes, many Asian nations have a culture of honor - but part of that is "saving face" which might cause some to fudge the numbers or lie about capabilities just to look good or make the boss or company look good.
I'm willing to bet that in China the honor exceeds the face-saving, but I don't really know?
North Korea, however, has been working outside of international norms (black market, hacking, drug/human trafficking) for so long that I'm not so sure Asian cultural norms have held as well there.
Imagine how sad it would be spending the entire Sunday without watching a Perun video. Fortunately it's not the case
Brrr. I m not event considering such terrible thing.
Every week i have something to look forward to, these amazing videos!!! Keep up the great work Perun : D
As always, great analysis, many thanks for your continued production of this content! 👍👍
Crikey, Perun you don't half make me feel old when I can remember events you mention that happened 'many, many, many, years ago.' Another excellent presentation thank you
Yeonpyeong Island shelling was a godsend to my boys. Instead of joint winter practices in the DMZ, they got like 40 straight days of liberty in Seoul. Record for days straight of liberty without an Marine getting arrested.
40 straight days of liberty without incidents? your unit must have had all the normal adults who were in the corps
People died dude... That's like saying 9/11 was a godsend because you got a day off
@@Toe_Merchant love how you preach about what "that's like" when you have no experience of what "that's like" at all. keep it up, proud of you
Really stoked to learn a bit more about all of this! Cheers.
Again, well done Perun. Your research and presentation skills are top notch !
Hey @Perun- I listen to your typical weekly upload three or four times. You are pretty much the only subscribe I value like this. Thanks for your work. Lots of people appreciate it.
North Korea is that Civ player that never disbands or removes units from stacks and ends up sending pikemen in their motorized infantry armies
Quickest I've ever caught a new video (
As always thank you for your work. You really do a great job everytime, Best on RUclips. I appreciate you.
Perun, you are awesome as always. Brilliantly put-together presentation. Well researched with arguments for and against certain perspectives well delivered. Please keep up the great work. Slava Ukraini ✌
And Perun said “let there be PowerPoint,” and there was PowerPoint.
What a joy to relax on a cool November morning with a voice of reason expanding my viewpoint and knowledge.
I'm incredibly grateful for your work & find it inspirational. I hope my own work-related powerpoint presentations will someday approach this level of clarity, accuracy, and detail.
Another fantastic Perun video. Packed with relevant information, presented clear, with incisive analysis.
Nice, a Perun video. I needed something chill and interesting to listen to.
Excellent summary. Your mid-power video will be great, can't wait.
Documentary on point again. Really enjoy your objective methods and overall information delivery.
Why do college powerpoints get me asleep in seconds while perun powerpoints keep me awake and paying attention till the last second ?
Thank you Perun.... We were eagerly awaiting your commentary and analysis.
we?
@@gillsejusbates6938 well i think it's safe to assume that more than one person was waiting for perun's analysis on the situation, so yes, "we" were eagerly awaiting his commentary
@@gillsejusbates6938 we the fuck would you be here if you don't watch the content?
Insightful and useful information - well organized and articulate. as usual
As always, very much enjoyed! Thanks once again!
Thank you for this. It made my morning. By far my favorite RUclips channel.
Painting my new (first!) living room; thanks Perun 👍🏻
Despite being the size of Mississippi, North Korea has as many guns as... Mississippi
LOL!!
Another excellent PowerPoint presentation. Thanks Perun!
No script? You mad man! I love it.
1 little note Perun. Russia didn't fully control Luhansk Oblast as well when Russia "annexed" it. It had lost Bilohorivka and some other towns in Luhansk.
HONEY DROP EVERYTHING! NEW PERUN UPLOAD!
Another great video, I find these very informative and interesting. Thanks for your hard work and keep going 👍
As always quality content, thank you.
There's no better way to start the week than with your uploads
Sir, did you consider that Russia might be buying n. Korea shells to fill its reserve magazines in order to release strategic reserve stockpiles to the front. Then there would be no OSINT trace but Russia would have more shells available.
Good point, I reckon even Russian reserve ammunition is in better shape than N. Korean, so it'd also make some sense tactically to opt for the better ammo first.
Another absolutely fantastic video! Thank you for your effort!
POWERPOINT TIME!!! Love these videos man
As always, thank you for making these videos. I don't have the expertise to contribute anything useful to the discussion, but I still want to feed the algorithm a comment.
This is quite early upload Perun! Keep it up.
Fantastic video! Thanks for the analysis. 👍
Idk why i find these so fascinating... bit I do. Another great analysi!
4:28 I really think China is sitting back and waiting for Russia to collapse. China has a better claim of taking back Far East Russia (lost in 1946) than Tiawan (lost in 1891). There is not gas and oil in Tiawan, but Eastern Russia does.
An invasion of Taiwan won't be about resources. China's, more precisely Xi's beef with Taiwan is idealogical, butt hurt and completely irrational, just like Putin is with Ukraine.
I think so, too, not to mention China has its own regional and internal issues upon which it is focused.
it's fascinating how much traction the driest of economic analysis can get almost 300,000 subscribers waiting eagerly for what is a masterclass in economic analysis, the fact you say what to us is obvious and the media "experts" miss says it all, bravo
Mic is real good. Glad it's good again. Enjoying your videos!
Thanks for another interesting video, always something to look forward to :)
My regular Sunday morning treat! Thanks to Perun and all his team.
Let's go!! Power point time!!!!
Always a very good presentation on interesting topics
Excellent work, as always.
The real problem with old artillery ammunition is the powder over time absorbs moisture. This is for separate loading rounds where the loader first loads the round, then puts in the powder behind it. Beyond a certain moisture level, the propellant charge does not burn at the predicted rate that allows for precision fires. The older the propellent, the more chance that this will happen. In the worst case, the powder does not create enough pressure to push the round out. If this happens there is a really good chance that when the breach is opened, there is still unburned propellent and when oxygen is let into the breach the piece suffers catastrophic failure. In other words, firing really old artillery munitions is really dangerous. It only takes one catastrophic failure to kill the crew, especially in Self Propelled Guns where the crew is inside a lightly armored compartment.
That sounds rather dangerous! Good thing Russia cares so much about its soldiers...oh, wait...
Well i don't think being in a lightly armored or heavily armored vehicle matters when you are inside it with burning propellant in a open breech. It would be better if it is actually open air as some of the explosive pressure wave vent out and not bounce around the armored walls killing everyone. It would also not suffocate everyone due to lack of oxygen. Albeit the flame may burn longer due to readily available said oxygen. But its also easier to evacuate on a open top SPG
@@neurofiedyamato8763 To be fair, the majority of systems on both sides are towed artillery not SPG. The negative there is it takes more time to move if radar finds you firing location with a towed system. It is also I think important to note that most SPGs have aluminum hulls instead of steel to keep vehicle weight down.
Love your work.
58:03 - One more reason to be in total awe of Perun
It Sunday, I am at work, but this will go excellent with my paperwork. Thanks Perun.
The CSTO has a budget flag. It looks like it was generated in mount and blade.
It’s ridiculous how good this content is! Best RUclips channel for this type of graduate level learning!
Awsome quality and great substananitive analysis 👍
Another excellent report !
Thank you! Would be immensely fascinating, but perhaps operationally unwise, to have a deep dive on the efforts of resistance elements (i.e. Russian and Belarus) and special ops capabilities. Perhaps when it’s all over? My spidey sense tells me there’s more to Poland’s immense support than meets the eye.
Fantastic stuff, and incredibly important! Thanks for a clear and sober assessment, as usual.
You have such professional looking videos and I love the fact that you post your sources. Thank you and your team for doing such a wonderful job. Good luck to you all in the future, and keep healthy.
Again, thank you for the perspective.
The Powerpoint master blesses us with another upload.
Good job Perun. Good job
Love and respect your work🧸
Quality analysis!
Generally at the moment the CSTO just seems to be a collection of capital letters .
Russia effectively was supposed to be the guarantor of this and at the moment they seem to be able to do nothing .
Azerbaijan (former member) is still fighting with Armenia (current member) . Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are engaged in border clashes (both current members )
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan (One current and one former member ) just do not want to get involved .
And Russia does not seem to be able to do anything about it , they’re far too busy .
Kazakhstan has even opened negotiations with the west this year and signed a gas deal with western nations. They've also started to increase their military strength and make statments like "we need to start relying o ourselves for defense".
You smartly pack such a plethora of pertinent information in your updates that I am shocked every single time I realize that an hour goes by in the blink of an eye. Thanks 🙏 and please keep up the great work that you do.
I perceived the "syrian volunteers" thing as a direct russian propaganda response to the good press ukraine was getting early in the war by setting up the ukrainian foreign legion and having a lot of foreigners volunteer to fight for ukraine. russia just wanted to claim to have volunteers, too.
Always a pleasure listening to you
great job as always!
Highlight of the week!
Perun, kudos for your comprehensive analysis regarding Russia’s allies. North Korea has likely begun shipping ammunition that Russia desperately needs by rail. A train crossed the border into Russia two days ago. Regarding the CSTO, Russia was the capstone of that mutual defense architecture. Russia’s military debacle in Ukraine has turned that capstone to dust and the entire CSTO structure has collapsed. All that remains is the Lukashenka regime in Belarus, that appears to be hedging it bet on Russia. Iran’s supply of weapons to Russia is becoming more problematic for that relationship. It has raised International concerns that Russia is assisting Iran in developing nuclear weapons in return. Moreover, the arrival of Iranian ballistic missiles in Russia will almost certainly compel Israels new coalition government to supply Ukraine with increased defensive countermeasures, possibly including the Iron Dome system.
It's just so weird isn't it. Since 2015 Ukraine has voted against Israel in 95 of a 122 UN votes Including one in June of this year. I simply don't understand why Israel would respond reluctantly to "demands" that Israel provide military assistance to their good friends and supporters in Ukraine
Whoulda thunk it??
An epic amount of research went into this video and I appreciate it
Very nice topic!
Mississippi only has 87 tanks, but they are all M1A2 SEP2 plus associated latest version of the Bradley fighting vehicles etc, etc. As for T34, well MS does have a M2 "Mae West" tank (pre WWII), but it is actually in the museum.