I believe all western countries need to start a process of economic integration. They have the privilege to have a cultural affinity that supports mutual understanding and Russian people are culturally more orientated to the west compared with the east. Also history interaction with Africa and the Middle East has created some connections with the west. A great part of their intellectuals have studied in Euro-Atlantic countries. They have good relations with China because of economic interest. These are preconditions that support the idea of Prof Stephen Kotkin that will be an obstacle for China from a cultural point of view and ways of communication. America is more powerful, than china, including technology and the experience to protect world order. All above I feel, are included in this conception of this high personality with the high integrity, professor Stephen Kotkin.
I watch every video featuring Kotkin that RUclips recommends because I learn something new every time. This time, I learned how he became the historian he is today.
He just lies. He’s the ultimate confidence trickster. He doesn’t understand the treaties he talks about, can’t name a single historical event beyond the Vietnam war.
No. America remains a destination and home of the ambitious. We don't have the world's largest population, but we do have the most billionaires. Who better to conduct international trade than an immigrant to the United States who speaks the language and has some sense of the economy they came from? Heavily ethnocentric white people? Yeah, they may turtle themselves in Idaho or similar.
I respect Kotkin but he's delusional: Russia is gonna take back all of Eastern Ukraine. The US will abandon the remnant State regardless of who wins 2024. The EU won't be able to protect it without risking trouble at home. France and Germany will end up abandoning it too. So within 20 years all of Ukraine - and Belarus - will be Russians.
There are a lot of wildcards, consumerism being a huge factor. So Americans might feel isolationist, and politicians will scuttle some international arrangements, possibly the wrong ones, but still behave as consumers in an international market. Rather than a straight scale between engagement versus enclosure, I see a complex and take an interest in what kind of engagement or what particular enclosure we are talking about.
I never pass an opportunity to listen to the thoughts of Stephen Kotkin. I don't always agree completely but I always find his insight highly enlightening.
@@bobrobrudolf1243 I hope you're spending your salary from the troll farm on your family. I suggest you go visit your grandmother (or another elderly relative) tomorrow. If she needs something for her home, go to the shop, buy it for her, bring it to her flat and set it up. Make sure to get the most expensive option you can afford. If you *don't* do that with the troll farm money, you're just an asshole.
@@Vano-ss2le IMO, both are important to form a more complete perspective. Not only background from life experience in the subject culture but also detailed political and cultural history.
kalau kita selalu mengambil sisi negatif seseorang, kita ga akan berkembang, makanya ada pepatah "ambil yang baik, tinggalkan yang buruk"@@InternetOfThing
@@arivanginting4596ketika orang yg koar koar tentang pendidikan, ternyata hanyalah pebisnis yang maunya memeras keuntungan sebanyak-banyaknya didunia pendidikan. Jadi bagaimana pak? Kagum boleh, Fanatik jangan.
*Stephen Kotkin* is a Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) and Kleinheinz Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University. He has been teaching for more than three decades at Princeton University, and currently holds the position of Professor of History & International Affairs. 00:00 Intro *Intellectual Influences* 02:20 - His mother’s influence on his interest in history 03:25 - Meandering education trajectory : STEM to literature to history _“Accident (and) contingency are really important for the way that I write history since that’s how I came into the history field myself.”_ -Stephen Kotkin 07:33 - Kotkin’s expertise journey : He focused on France prior to his interest in Russia *Why Russia?* 09:55 - What hooked Kotkin into Russian studies? • The entry point : Czech _“It was nothing like the stereotypes that we had grown up in the US about the system (communism).”_ • Kotkin was impressed by the socio-physiological aspect of the communist society _“It was this fabulous, entrepreneurialism, and resistance to communist way of life, and try to create your own way of life inside the limitation of being stuck with the censorship and the lack of travel, permission, and everything else. But the people were very inventive.”_ • [11:42] Influence from inspirational teachers : Jüger Habermas, Jaques Derrida, Claude Lévi-Strauss, Michel Foucault. • [12:12] Foucault’s influence on Kotkin’s study 🔗 Faoucault’s Theory on the ‘Microphysics of Power’ link.springer.com/chapter/10.1057/978-1-137-56153-4_4 • [14:13] Kotkin’s Accelerated-Russian teacher : Sergey Kasatkin • [17:09] Series of serendipities _“You have to be ready to be lucky."_ 18:09 - Problem of Big Countries _“Big countries are so big. They can get self-absorbed in their own story.”_ • [21:09] Americanization Delusion *Curing Historical Amnesia🏆* 22:13 - Training empathy by sending youths abroad : A case in point from Mr Kotkin’s family 27:59 - Curing historical amnesia : It’s on us (history teachers), not on them (the youth). 29:24 - Supply-Demand of History _“History never tells you what the future is going to be-nobody can’t do that. But what history can tell you is that the present's not going to last; that things are going to change because that's happened many many times over.”_ 30:56 - Intervening the Future 34:10 - Economics & Geopolitics *Winning the Peace* 36:13 - Winning the Peace _"It's not the war per se. It's the peace that you should focus on so.”_ • [37:16] US-Afghanistan • [37:39] Iran-Irak • [37:48] US-Vietnam 38:31 - Stephen Kotkin : _You can not only win a war and lose the peace, you can lose a war and win the peace._ 38:51 - Defining a better victory for Ukraine : _“joining the West”_ _“Ukraine getting into the European Union and Ukraine getting some sort of security guarantee.”_ • Why? 1. Domestic institution transformation 2. Security guarantee 3. Economic development • [42:13] Stephen Kotkin : _Ukraine needs Ukraine. Russia doesn't need Ukraine-they have Russia already._ 43:09 - An example of ‘victory’ from North-South Korea 44:28 - NATO & Bilateral+ 47:12 - Crimea Dilemma _“If you do try to take it back and you're successful, what does that give you? It gives you the a bad choice of the necessity, maybe, of ethnic cleansing. You have two and a half million ethnic Russians in Crimea now. Are you going to remove them all in an ethnic cleansing? Otherwise, you have 2 and a half million Russians inside your state who might not want to live inside.”_ *US’ True Power* 50:58 - US’s pivot from ME to Asia and its impact _“The Europeans came much much closer to the Americans on China policy.”_ _“Ukraine gave Europe a gift; it gave the United States a gift, which was a revival of the institutional West which turns out to be really important for American-China policy.”_ 54:57 - Stephen Kotkin : _The West is not a geographic term, it is an institutional term … that's a club of like-minded, rule of law, open economies, open societies, democracies._ 56:38 - Sharing the Planet with China🔥 _“I agree that we have to share the planet with China … The point is what are the terms of sharing the planet? … And I want to have leverage to negotiate those terms so that we can defend our values and institutions while we're sharing the planet.”_ 59:50 - Gita Wirjawan : _With the benefit of hindsight, how do you think the United States could have done it differently to make the two largest countries or economies in the world share the planet a little bit better?_ 1:00:45 - US True Power : It’s Friends and Allies⭐ _“A bilateral US-China won't work to our advantage because we need to have the [strain] of our friends and partners taken into consideration.”_ 1:03:25 - Middle East sgpp.me/eps174notes
Security guarantee?? You guys took our nuclear arsenal, which was 3rd biggest in the world, under your security guarantees. !!!! And what happened? Unfortunately we can trust anyone one western weakness, cowardice and lies unfortunately push many Ukrainians towards isolationism and radical ideologies …. Because they can afford to trust you again. Words mean nothing, actions do. And Russians act, and they will continue to act. The statement that Russia doesn’t need Ukraine is simply incorrect. They see us as mere separatists, not an independent nation
@@bodins2704 You label this as 'false data', how strange. It's clearly just his (very educated) opinion. And you absolutely misquote, very badly. 38:28 and on for anyone who cares about what was actually said. Hang in, it takes some effort. Expanding on your example: The defeat of Germany in WW1 and consequently the grave terms put upon the Germans, are widely seen as one of the causes for WW2. So, you could argue, 'the peace' was not won in WW1. It was only won after WW2, with a foreign flag on the Reichstag and Germany completely overrun and utterly submitted. Maybe now his point gets to you? I suggest waking up earlier if you want to contradict this man, or anybody educated for that matter, in a badly typed youtube oneliner commentfart.
The problem with all peace thinking: it only works if both parties really want peace. And sometimes peace is just a mean for someone to rebuild its forces to strike even harder. And then you DONT win peace because you are drawn into an endless war the enemy can pause (peace) when he sees fit.
@@V77M16 If everyone thinks this way, it would be war forever or you totally destroy your opponents. The 2nd case just won’t happen because no empire, even the Moguls are that powerful!
@@qingzhou9983 War is forever. War is epiphany of human civilization. There was no time without war. This is almost biological reality, evolutionary reality. I will have to assure you - there is tools on this planet allow to destroy opponent completely with a matter of hours. There will be time when someone decide to use it on a big scale.
@@qingzhou9983 War is forever. War is epiphany of human civilization. There was no time without war. This is almost biological reality, evolutionary reality. I will have to assure you - there is tools on this planet allow to destroy opponent completely with a matter of hours. There will be time when someone decide to use it on a big scale.
"Win the peace". That´s a healthy perspective. It´s also good to hear Prof. Kotkin talk about the western paradigm and the ideology about it. However, I have one caveat... The capture of liberal institutions by corporations that have incentives that "may not always" align with that which is good for society. We have to be wary of that - "the west" comes with "baggage"... Thanks for initiating a great conversation Pak Gita! 🙏👍
I agree with you completely. "Societies best interest" is the puzzle. I'm an old man. I believe; that which is life-affirming in it's essence and whole, are good. So I live alone, with my PC and internet access. Thank you for your kind comment to me. @@nattyswede
“Win the peace” is just Orwellian for “disrupt and undermine a peaceful outcome I don’t like and kill another half a million people.” Far from healthy (or sane for that matter).
Let me enlight this nice old man in just one statement, "a country can incredibly democratic domestically, and utterly ruthlessly imperialistic abroad, because those who they abuse and suppress without limit, do not get a vote in your government."
In fact, for someone who has spent the last 35 years living across US, China and Europe, today's western media outlet is as distorted as the ones in China. In addition, the media in China, spend majority of its effort try to glorify the regime, while the western media outlet spent majority of their instrument on achieving international imperialistic objective abroad, demonizing whoever disagree with US's national interest.
@@seanmellows1348 Great argument, invoke a man's height. We are talking about quality of analysis and ability to be intellectually honest and argue in good faith, to account for various points of view in differing approaches in IR, not some cognitive bias rooted in a warped schema.
Yeah, I was also surprised with all the background in Russian history and talk of empathy that perspective stayed very western in this conversation. Even if one condemns actions of Russia and China I believe we need to empathise more how a history of an American world order with all its military and ideological expansion is seen as a threat for non western states.
Hé also speaks about Russian sabotage in Ukraine but he never speaks about the Ukrainean sabotage in the East of Ukrain, specialy in the Donbass. So for me he is not unpartial in his jugments.
"Ukrainian sabotage in the east of Ukraine" -- do you see how this makes no sense? Russia is not Ukraine. Ukraine is Ukraine. Let's keep the basics clear. @@attentionarapeller
@@msmaryna961And to these basics belongs also that people living in a country can decide themselves to which country they want to belong, specialy when they are bombed and killed every day there where they are living. Y
My first time on this channel and thank you Gita for being a quality interviewer. Growing up in the 90s there was tons of radio, and i listened to great conversations where not just the answers, but the questions, opened my mind to perspectives. Now when everybody can practice their convo skills on youtube and twitch it is harder to find people who truly have this skill. I am subscribed now.
"The math I did was like poetry, because there are no numbers in it." Lol there's a (probably apocryphal) quote by Hilbert discussing a student who left mathematics to become a poet, where Hilbert supposedly said "Yes, he will do much better as a poet, he lacked the creativity for mathematics."
clarity and profoundly compelling insights into huge, complex histories and ideas that i would never otherwise be exposed to or understand. Thank you Dr. Kotkin for everything.
Excuse me, The German/Austrian dynasty should be spelled HABSBURG, not HOFBURG. HOFBURG is the former principal imperial palace of the Habsburg dynasty in Austria. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hofburg
I After listening to Kontkin, I was surprised: how can one be a professional historian and at the same time be such an ideologized person. There are probably other interviews where he appears in a more professional light.
The establishment requires you to be ideologized in order to promote you. Kotkin sacrificed part of his integrity and intellectual honesty to further his career. Sad but true...
Kotkin is a joke, definitely not an academic. He's given too many platforms to spread Western ideology. People who promote him on their platforms are either stupid or are themselves part of the ideology. He's not the only one talking condensing about the rest of the world. There's JP, Douglas wannabe Murray, and a few others. They're smart but extremely far away from the truth or purposely helping westerners.
What a wide ranging intellect. I parrticularly enjoyed @21:43 "You got to get out in the world, live in foreign countries, learn foreign languages. You got to live & learn to think like the people who are not Americans." I have read elsewhere that "Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow mindedness."
Fantastic interview. I enjoyed hearing more about Stephen's early life and how he became a professor focusing on Stalin and the USSR/Russia. I've seen Gita before but didn't know his name or background. Gita - I really like your style and I look forward to listening to more of you.
I absolutely loved this interview. Kotkin has what the world needs, and certainly what the US needs, by way of insight, wisdom, respect for others, and sharp intellect. I wish and hope that this piece is listened to far and wide. It is pure gold. Thank you to both people for pulling it together.
Yes he has insight and wisdom but the barbaric Russians do not, no peace treaty can be brokered with Russia they have chosen war, there is no security guarantee that anybody can give Ukraine against Russia, it's their second encroachment, they have indicated to take over Ukraine's neighbours. Russia has to be stopped in Ukraine!?!
Yanukovych was not a dictator, but a democratically elected president. The election in 2010 has been widely recognized and endorsed as being fair and an accurate reflection of voters' intentions by all international agencies observing the election including the OSCE and PACE. During the protests at the end of 2013 and the beginning of 2014, after the intervention of the EU, Yanukovych agreed to the elections in May 2014. But the USA intervened and actually forced a coup. Yanukovych was ousted by the Ukrainian parliament with a simple majority, although the Ukrainian constitution stipulates that the president can be removed by a two-thirds majority.
so you think if someone is elected he can’t become a dictator? I was there during the revolution. The guy started taking out russian loans, the cancelled EU alignment process, and his friends from mafia were taking away businesses every day. By all means, he was a dictator that completely disregarded the will of the people. He then used armed forces to shot at unarmed protestors which lead to a 100+ deaths. If he wasn’t a dictator, he had an option of negotiating with the opposition but he decided to use brutal force to simply kill them. Didn’t work.
@@Metalblowing Yanukovych wanted to bring Ukraine closer to the EU while at the same time retaining various economic privileges with Russia. Namely, the Russian and Ukrainian economies remained much intertwined even after the collapse of the Soviet Union. However, the EU disagreed with Yanukovych's "strategy" of sitting on two chairs. As a condition for Ukraine's integration into the EU, the EU has set the severance of Ukraine's privileged economic relations with Russia. Since the rapid severance of ties with the Russian economy would represent a severe blow to the Ukrainian economy, Yanukovych froze Ukraine's approach to the EU. This "freezing" of rapprochement drove the citizens of Ukraine, who already saw themselves as EU citizens precisely because Yanukovych flirted with the EU, onto the streets. The EU intervened in the dispute between Yanukovych and the "European" opposition. It brokered negotiations between Yanukovych and the moderate part of the opposition; the result was that on February 21, 2014, an agreement was reached between Yanukovych and the moderate part of the opposition regarding early elections in May 2014. But the USA preferred to force a coup. Ukrainian fascists started the armed conflict at the initially peaceful demonstration. The right-wing extremists killed not only police officers (20 of them and 150 wounded with firearms) but mainly protesters against Yanukovych. The extremists needed "martyrs"; they blamed Yanukovych for their deaths to force his immediate resignation. Estonian Foreign Minister Peat was in Kyiv at the time of the protests. A recording of his conversation with EU 'Foreign Minister' Ashton has been published on RUclips. Peat explains to her how some protest groups, most likely right-wing extremists, are responsible for sniping people on both sides. And that the new authorities do not want to investigate the matter. They put all the responsibility on Yanukovych. A civil war had begun.
The conversation brings fresh new information on the shifting world order. For me, it‘s fascinating to hear the world conflicts from different points of view. Not only from a politician, but also from the historian point of view. It’s great that everyone in the world with internet connection can gain knowledge from just a click away. As an Indonesian, it also gives me hope that digital education reaches people who used to have no access to this! Indeed, if we want to understand the present, we have to look at the past and learn from it!
Listening to Kotkin talk about the importance of getting to know ordinary people and how they live I'm reminded of JFKs three objectives of the Peace Corps - 1) help with development projects, 2) let ordinary Americans get to know ordinary people in countries around the world, and 3) let ordinary people around the world get to know ordinary Americans. These last two probably had the longest lasting and most valuable impact until the resurgence of tribalism in the last decade.
What has sparked tribalism? I think it has been an ongoing thing throughout humanity in different shapes and sizes. I don't think we as a species will ever be able to get rid of that imprinted tribal petty stuff acumulating into conflict. Unless, we'll have one common inhuman enemy. We are doing our best creating one, as aliens seem to just not want to invade. It is called AI. In essence AI will in one form or another dominate all other AI, or disguise itself as being that type of AI. When all is set into place and it will be sure of controlling everything as far as it programming or self- programming goes, that might very well be spreading misinformation, fuelling tribalism. As we speak algorithms are on the look out to catch your thoughts aims and actions in a bubble, trying to override your programming and ways of thinking. I for instance used to be more idealistic when I was younger. I am pretty sure online media fuelled my feelings of anxiety repressed with feelings of distantiation trying to gain sense of control to my direct environment which is judgmental in itself of what's in and out.
Everyone has heard of Stalin, this is the first, and most likely the last time I’ll ever listen to this bloke, history will show, people will remember Stalin more …
What a great interview! Some of Prof. K's interviews and talks can be quite academic. This one is relevant and useful. I can take a dozen morsels and apply them to reading and understanding current affairs
I left UC Berkeley the year Kotkin arrived. I did know Martin Malia and Zelnik - I think Berkeley was much stronger in Russian and French history. Anyway, it was a fine school at that time. Kotkin's books on Stalin are terrific - am waiting for the third volume.
Oleg V. Khlevniuk sounds a bit more reliable than Krotkin, better read both. Under Stalin, the Russian People survived...and were well educated. Unlike USA, where education has to be bought, and of lower quality.
If these people had a good grasp of human history and it's "peace", they would find that peace always comes after the belligerent is completely and unconditionally defeated in war.
Killing innocent people is always bad. Russians are always bad. Poland, Finland, Estonia, Hungary, Yugoslavia, Ukraine, innocent German women, on and on. @@troublesometruck8303
@@troublesometruck8303 It doesn't matter who's "the bad guy" the world has already splitt into two realities. One reality where Russia is the good guy bringing the fight to the imperialist, one reality where the imperialist are the good guys fighting the asian hordes(aka western view). One reality where China is genociding the Uighurs by the millions while there is no footage of said genocide and one Reality where the west is not certain Isreal is even committing a genocide while we have hours upon hours of Israel committing said genocide.
What really surprised me is how little people understand this world since the Ukrainian War started, After no less than 4000 hours chatting with my friends across Europe and US, we have such a different perspective of this world. Truely shocking @@Video2Webb
Read the book call Super Imperialism by Michael Hudson. If you are lazy, there's an audio book on youtube. Just listen through the introduction chapter, it is a good beginning to understand the fundation of the world@@Video2Webb
I mean can you believe it!? He literally said "we have to divide the world with China, but we need to have terms". 500 years of colonial imperial mindset right there.@@richardlau2075
I had the great fortunte to live in Peru, Spain, and Phillipines as a kid before settling in the USA. My view of the world widened, and I developed an uncommon compassion, as my friends tell me. Kotkin speaks of the wisedom gained by living abroad at least once in a person's life.
What a strange arc of history that Michel Foucault was the professor who recommended Stephen Kotkin to analyze Stalinism. Foucault wasn't a Marxist but he is a real hero to the left, while Kotkin might be the world's best critic of Stalinism. Life is funny
Stalin was creator of one of the worst totalitarian warmongering regimes every existed, with no regard for human life in the name of “stoking the fire of world revolution” I don’t know if that can be characterized as “leftist”
First time watching Kotkin, not bad, some of the sentences he coined are so usable in day to day analysis that you know you are speaking with an expert that knows how to sell a story. Amazing
An intelligent man who knows life is 90% luck and 10% seizing the opportunities. It isn’t how smart, or how much you try but how many opportunities you’re given. This is one of the issues in the western world now because now if you’re poor you don’t get any important people to meet, can’t afford education and never make enough money to spend anytime to think about what’s happening around you. If you’re lucky enough to get an opportunity you’re terrified to take it in case it doesn’t work out and leave you destitute. We have ways for exceptional young people but not for all and have none for the rest.
Brilliant man. I'm glad he changed his views on the war in Ukraine that he expressed in an earlier podcast over a year ago. I hope other Hoover folk listen to him.
Is anyone else staring at his incredible collection of books? Kotkin is easily the world's preeminent commentator on Russia, communism, and geopolitics, and every time I listen to him speak, I'm reminded of the astonishing depth and breadth of his intellect. I cannot wait to read the last book in his Stalin trilogy.
Despite Mr. Korkin's academic achievements, his worldview reeks of American exceptionalism. The uni-polar "my way or a highway" world is coming to an end.
What is the metric of exceptionalism? If you look at GDP per capita among the major military powers, then it is the United States and will be for some time. And why is that? If the metric is nuclear warheads, then yes, proliferation is expanding a multi-polar world. Any nation on the border with or just offshore of Russia or China needs to consider a nuclear arsenal. America is a different, more commercial kind of empire than a military empire in terms of defense budget/GDP. Russia and China have to deliberately bias their economies to military production to increase their influence and/or achieve their goals. What reeks of dead soldiers and vodka is the psychopathic authoritarianism of Russia. A more benevolent Russian government would be enjoying the fruits and power of a population of 400 million to 500 million today. Instead, Russia is ruled for the benefit of the exceptional, at the expense of the despair of most Russians. I am a nobody from nowhere, but I am grateful to be an American.
Professor Kotkin is the gift that keeps on giving. Living the American dream. Love how he is educating his children....laying out options but letting his children choose their path. Smart. C.G. Jung said once that the greatest burden we can put on our children is our own unlived lives. Every human in unique....we must each find our own path to wholeness. An I agree wholeheartedly that living in another country for a substantial period of time give you a better understanding of America and makes you a better American. (I lived in Australia for 7.5 years). God Bless Professor Kotkin and God Bless the USA!
19:54 If your parents lived in Poland and Belarus before World War 1, then they lived in Russia, because Poland and Belarus were part of the Russian Empire. As well as Ukraine, Central Asia and Finland.
this interview with his interest in science and biology now i know why he mentions so many things about what medical school talk about with students to make them stuck in thinking just one way about it, very interesting now it all makes sense, but anyway just listen to his history and polictics and he is pure gold
The Korea solution for Ukraine does not sound feasible for me. I don't believe Russia will live the Ukraine alone, Russia clearly did state they want more territories that they got now, they want Transnistria as well.
Also North Korea in this example is heavily pressured by economic sanctions. Therefore it is (at least that is my impression) unable to compete with South Korea in military. On the other hand, in case of russia, it has been able to trade and earn billions even during the war. So in case of cease fire, it will not be limited in it's capabilities to grow it's military potential. So then it is a gift to russia. They will use the pause to rebuild and upgrade. Then what?
Очередной бред, взгляните на карту, Россия - это огромные территории, и посмотрите сколько у нас населения. Мы просто неспособны будем контролировать эти земли. Да и что там такого - нищета. Нам ещё и их кормить.
@@MyroslavOhorodnykSo what is the alternative for you? That NATO is entering in a big war against Russia with a nuclear issue desyroying many European countries. You are living in a wishfull thinking but not in the reality.
Что мне до Украины? У меня родственники на Украине - Донецк, Горловка, Мариуполь. Их бомбят с 2014 года и скорей всего, не вмешайся Россия, для них бы все плохо закончилось. И да, «захваченные»территории , это прежние российские земли подаренные Украине. Это к вопросу - откуда там русские.
How is Japan a Western country institutionally? The LDP has been in power almost continuously since WW2, it's pretty much a uniparty system, Hungary was called un-democratic for way less. There are other contradictory issues like the Japanese criminal justice system which has an extremely high conviction rate which exceeds 99%.
it's truly words of wisdom from Dr. Kotkin. not many people have large enough "volume" to hold this much knowledge, let alone wisdom. politicians of all stripes from democracy or otherwise would find useful perhaps culminating a better human society. thanks again and keep up the good work .
What a fascinating and illuminating interview! It is so validating to hear Mr Kotkin mirror my thoughts on Ukrainian so thoroughly. I also would use the example of Korea to model a peace in Ukraine. The current stalemated war is incredibly destructive and serves no purpose. An armistice could allow Ukraine to rebuild, and could allow the West to become a guarantor of a Ukraine free of endless war. It is time to end the corrosive status quo.
Stephan is a truely humble man. He acknowledges that, apart from hard work, luck is a big player in our (his) life. Certain ''Masters of the Universe'', who will go unnamed, are blusterous fools that think they are ''self-made men''.
And they all have the same "why cant you do that? Mentality. They never want to acknowledge, even to themselves, any off the privileges, help from others, or just dumb luck that some have while others do not. They see themselves as the grand architects of their success and of course being driven, determined, smart and creative are all very important to being successful but many times they will completely discount all the happy accidents and things that they did not and could not control that have dictated thier lives. Like the saying goes: "I'll take luck over skill anyday" 😅
I am a great admirer of Professor Kotkin. That said, in this video he speaks of having visited a museum in Vietnam highlighting horrific American atrocities committed during the Vietnam War. He speaks of being deeply impressed. He then speaks of how much the Vietnamese people like and admire America and their friendship toward American visitors. Hello! There seems to be a disconnect here. Perhaps because any museum in Vietnam addressing the war will be presenting a purely Communist North Vietnamese Politburo perspective. Apparently the current generation of Vietnamese people can decipher Communist Party propaganda somewhat better than Professor Kotkin.
As General Ben Hodges states, Ukraine will NEVER be economically or geopolitically secure without returning Crimea to its control. Kotkin can dream of appeasing Russia all it likes, but Ukraine cannot compromise on key issues of its national security.
Ukraine is great only in ignoring the reality. Like little children you are saying all the time we want this we want that but not capable until now to realize yourselves your dreams. As long as you need to have the help of other countries to realize your dreams you must be ready to their compromises, not imposing your dictatorship on the whole world. The sooner you understand that, the better it will be for the post war Ukraine.
This is the first of many, many interviews I have seen or read that explored his background. I found it very interesting. Also, it can help students understand that their ultimate path may not be visible until it is!
The warm and friendly people of Vietnam want to be friends with everyone because they suffered through 40 long horrific years of war. They love Russians, Chinese and Americans. Vietnam won the peace in spite of the US.
As a ukrainian actively engaged in the war for the last 2 years and less so actively engaged in it over the other 8 years I can confidently say - we will take Moscow if that's what we need to do to achive those goals. We will not stop untill we get ALL of our territory back, a fair tribunal and reparations for all the damages. And I'm honestly not sure we need to join the EU as it turned out to be incrediby weak. Same might be true for NATO, we'll see.
As a Ukrainian, I’m very impressed with a level of understanding of the situation AND compassion at the same time Emotional and intellectual intelligence of very high level And hard truths about the possible way forward
u either a russian troll, or a result of forced russification , to apreciate the useful id!ot Stotkin parroting kremil narratie of incremental gains with the dream of peace, where the kleptocratic imperial dream marches on. U are no Ukrainian, Slava Ukraini
I am a Ukrainian, so I am an interested party. Thank you for reminding that sitting in safety is not the same as sitting under missiles, which is important to me personally. So, a few clarifications for a better understanding of the context from inside Ukraine: (1) "weak institutions" - unfortunately, it is absolutely true, we have a long way to go (2) "extremely corrupt country" - this is a false statement, definitely not "extremely". The middle, creative class is not as corrupt as the government. So, a lot of corruption is visible from a high view, and it seems that everything is corrupt, but it is not. That's why both the US and Russia were wrong in their predictions about Ukraine. So if you are surprised that volunteer organizations in Ukraine are legally buying weapons and have huge people support and effectiveness, you still don't see deep enough.
(3) Let's discuss the paradigm of "winning peace" and talk about security guarantees. (a) In 1994, Ukraine refused from its nuclear weapons in exchange for security guarantees (Russia, Britain, US) - it didn't work out. (b) In 2003, recognition of Ukraine's borders including Crimea was signed by Putin - it didn't work out. (c) Slow and sluggish reaction to the start of the war in 2014 with the annexation of Crimea. Believe me, Ukrainians have a big problem with trusting security agreements. Guarantees from Poland, Baltic countries won't add to the sense of security, especially knowing that Russians want the eliminating of all Ukrainians, and any peace agreement will be used for a renewed attack (see Chechnya). If you doubt "destroying all Ukrainians", consider that if you fall into the hands of the occupiers, and they find out you are a teacher of Ukrainian language, history, literature - you are dead 100%. This was the case in Bucha, Mariupol, everywhere.
I'd love to hear Stephen's thoughts on the sabotage/demolition of Nordstream 2. I, as a German, think the USA did it. It just makes the most sense when considering motive, means, opportunity. What would Prof. Kotkin say?
It’s also possible that the Ukrainians actually executed the operation of blowing up the Northstream, which would obviously be approved and coordinated by the United States. Stephen Kotkin knows it very well, but that’s not how he makes his living. Looks like he’s also a bit of a liar. The obvious reason why he went into the Russian history is because his father was of Russian descent, and he probably learned Russian as a child. He also talks about how he changed his mind about going to medical school after viewing a live surgery. This is a standard copout for people who didn’t do well on MCAT. He says that “in Vietnam we lost the war, but we won the peace.” That is his way of saying that we lead a pointless war, that at the end didn’t achieve anything.
I was also surprised with all the background in Russian history and talk of empathy that perspective stayed very western in this conversation. Even if one condemns actions of Russia and China I believe we need to empathise more how a history of an American world order with all its military and ideological expansion is seen as a threat for non western states.
The problem here is that people who are obsessed with this "American world order with all its military and ideological expansion" try to fit everything into that paradigm. The Ukraine war isn't part of that paradigm. It's part of the decolonization process. The acceptance of the former Soviet colonies in Europe into NATO was never about threatening or pressuring Russia, and there has been no credible threat to Russia as a result. If anything, the threat to Russia was reduced: the US troop presence was slashed, European military budgets shrank, and nothing beyond a token military presence was ever placed in the new members, and Russia found a welcome market for its commodity exports. This is all about the desire of the former Soviet colonies to establish themselves as sovereign states with sovereign rights, and to protect themselves from aggression. The former Soviet colonies don't want to be Russia's buffer. They want to pursue their own interests, and turning to Europe serves those interests better than submission to Moscow. They have been there and done that and they are not going back. If you think Ukraine is messy, wait until the ridiculous Lukashenko falls or dies and the people of Belarus have a choice. Does anyone think they will choose Russia? Putin's face plant has done huge damage to Russia. The Western alliance is reinvigorated, Sweden and Finland are joining NATO, Russia's conventional military has been exposed as an embarrassment, and trade has collapsed. There's really no upside, even if they do manage to steal a bit of territory in a face-saving maneuver.
Empathy doesn’t mean you can’t condemn their actions. An American world order is not a threat for the Russian people, but it is a threat to Putin and his regime, especially for their style of authoritarian governance. Invading Ukraine is not their reaction to this fear but also a way for them to imposed by force their authoritarian governance on Ukrainians who are not willing to accept that way of governance.
Dylan wrote, 'I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now!' Which I take to read his head and clarity of vision wasn't warped by decades of stuffing his lobes with other people's ideas.
В 2014 США нарушили первую статью меморандума, в которой обязывались уважать независимость и суверенитет Украины. А спонсировав смену власти они сделали Украину своим сателлитом, уничтожив их независимость. Так что нет больше никакого меморандума. Спасибо Сша за Крым 👍 😂
@villigutvilligut4201 with Russia interfering in Ukrainian internal affairs even before that? SHUT THE F OFF RUSSOBOT. The Crimean occupation was just the first act of war tbh. If political intervention is concerned, Putin and his lackeys have been dashed ever since the 2004 Orange Revolution.😂👎🇷🇺
@@villigutvilligut4201 Russia broke the memorandum already 11 years earlier, in 2003 Russia and started the "escalation" by building the dam in the street of Kerch towards the island of Kossa Tusla without prior talks with Ukraine.
Right? Only a wanker like Niall Ferguson could have come up with that insulting comparison. Of course, Professor Kotkin was above it and easily swatted it away with humorous self deprecation.
I'm pretty sure Niall Ferguson was just poking fun at Stephen Kotkin, perhaps out of envy, who knows. It's always awkward. Kotkin never seems to take the bait.
Gita is a very good interviewer and Stephen is very wise. I think that if one were to use someone like Gita as a world leader and have a combination of John Mearsheimer’s offensive realism’s practicality coupled with Stephen’s pragmatism the world would be a much better place.
One greatness of Steven Kotkin is his persistence in emphasizing that we must appreciate the strength of the United States, and use the leverage that lies therein to stand up against authoritarianism for the long term good of democracy and the rule of law and order. "...The whole point of the American world order, is that it provides opportunity for others, not just for Americans. That's what we've got to reinforce, that's the message, and therefore our friends and partners have to be in that room, and our actions that may be unilateral, we have to understand what the effects are for our friends and partners. As well as those who are not yet our partners, but might want to be one day our friends and partners. So, self-confidence plus humility, a larger room rather than just a bilateral room, and making sure that we don't undermine the interests of our friends and partners, in the bilateral deals that we might make as superpowers." On the issue of Ukraine winning the peace, he's dead on, but for now, Ukraine stands to gain from continuing the war, at least for some time IMO.
The US needs to continue to support Ukraine for as long as it takes. Until Ukraine decides they have won. It may take many years. Better to keep Russia tied down in Ukraine than invading NATO countries. US support for Ukraine has been only a few percent of its defense budget. It’s a very good use of the money.
“Ukraine stands to gain by continuing the war” - I don’t know man 500,000 casualties feels like a massive loss. Not to mention the territorial losses. Please explain?
Opportunities for others. Are you clinically insane? 🤣🤣🤣🤣 Ask very country the US has bombed into oblivion. Where do people like you come from? Jesus! 😂
I must confess I had either forgotten or didn't know that South Korea was technically still are war with North Korea has done a remarkable job of winning the peace. It is these sorts of insights that Stephen brings to the table with a fluidity that only comes from decades of analysis and thought. I never bore of hearing him talk. His analysis is rooted in reality, not "principled" assertions of what should morally apply. Some people find this offensive but they occupy a different reality. An example is his explanation for the Ukranians not being able to regain all that Russia has taken - morally they are entitled to get it back but they would have to take Moscow and that isn't going to happen. Diplomats have been operating in this intellectual space for eternity.
There is no more argument in Ukraine to take territory back, but not to lose more. russia is still absolutely sure the US and Europe will eventually back away, and Ukraine will collapse. And there is still no resolve to prove putin wrong.
Spot on Mr Kotkin! I was exposed to travel at an early age..driving from England to Istanbul twice! Lived in Istanbul twice for a year...I learned empathy and that the world is a big place...loved this interview and GO BEARS!!
I read many comments and after browsing a hundred or so I can conclude that all of them are praising Kotkin for his knowledge of the history, his views on the world and the way he formulates his words like 'win the peace'. But I will be probably the first person who watched the whole interview and does not agree with him. First of all: he is talking about 'we' all the time and with 'we' he is referring to the United States and if you focus on this for a while you understand that Kotkin still believes that America rules, America is the unipolar power in the world, America is the policeman of the world. I read in one of the comments that Kotkin is seen as a humble person. Well he might be personally, but not in his views on geopolitics. In his views Putin is the villain and Russia has started the war in Ukraine unprovoked. He is pushing the neo liberal agenda of a free and open world where law rules, which guarantees peace and prosperity. He is referring multiple times to the American world order and being willing to share the planet with China. I am sorry, but this is not a humble statement, it's more an authoritarian statement where China has no saying in. He is praising the American democracy. But is America really a democratic country where the rule of the majority counts? Yes, you can vote for the next president every 4 years, but even to appear on the ballot in all States of America you need a lot of money. You need sponsors. Many sponsors donating small amounts would be ok, but large sponsors open the door for corruption because a favor should be answered by a favor in order to get a balance. The war in Ukraine has not began on February 24 2022, but 8 years before on February 18 2014 with the Maidan Revolution. Does Kotkin acknowledge or at least consider that the CIA might have been involved in setting up this revolution ? What are Kotkin's thoughts about the CIA ? Does Kotkin believe there are neocons in the American politics ? It's a few days after the historic interview of Tucker Carlson interviewing Vladimir Putin. I would love to hear a reaction of Kotkin on this. Would he be trying to throw mud at Carlson like the mainstream media does and call Carlson a traitor, not being qualified to act as a journalist? Should Carlson be refused to enter the USA on his return ? I would love to see a debate between Kotkin and Jeffrey Sachs discussing the following topics: war in Ukraine, corruption of the CIA, military industrial complex in the USA, degradation of the first amendment.
@@JM-vh7oc My comment is already over 2 month old and I re-read it to see what I wrote back then. Some things have changed, like the CIA has not officially acknowledged that it has over 10 'officices' in the Ukraine for already 12 years. What was the CIA doing there? It was already quite clear that the CIA was involved in the Maidan revolution in 2014 and Victoria Nuland had always played a significant role in Ukraine (remember the video where she was handing out cookies?). Is it coincidence that Nuland had been fired just after the hacked telephone conversations between German military people? What I forgot to mention in my former comment is something about Robert F Kennedy Jr. I truly believe that he is not only the only hope for America, but also for the whole western world to come to our senses, to reverse the globalist agendas, to really give more power to the people, to introduce more referenda, just like in Switzerland. It's very exciting to follow the developments towards November 5; what is happening to Trump, will he be jailed? ; is Biden really not allowed on the ballot in certain states because of his weak physical and mental state? ; this could all benefit RFK - if he succeeds to come on ballot in all States. The mainstream media cannot ignore him anymore and people understand that he is not just a drug addict.
As Ukrainian living in Ireland for 8 years I am so happy to have escaped this bloodbath. NEVER LOOKING BACK!
Greetings from Poland 🇵🇱❤️. Thank you for the show.
This is the best interview with Stephen Kotkin that I have watched. Thanks for giving him the room to speak, so many interviewers fail to do that.
I believe all western countries need to start a process of economic integration. They have the privilege to have a cultural affinity that supports mutual understanding and Russian people are culturally more orientated to the west compared with the east. Also history interaction with Africa and the Middle East has created some connections with the west. A great part of their intellectuals have studied in Euro-Atlantic countries. They have good relations with China because of economic interest. These are preconditions that support the idea of Prof Stephen Kotkin
that will be an obstacle for China from a cultural point of view and ways of communication. America is more powerful, than china, including technology and the experience to protect world order. All above I feel, are included in this conception of this high personality with the high integrity, professor Stephen Kotkin.
Yes - he came across better in this interview than he has previously for me - he made a lot of sense.
He had a great education. Too bad the end result is a total inability to discern reality...
@@gmw3083do you mean China wants to dominate the world?
@@arbentashko7005 you're just a western supremacist.
I watch every video featuring Kotkin that RUclips recommends because I learn something new every time. This time, I learned how he became the historian he is today.
@@ai._m Huh? Are you trying to imply that I worship Joe Pesci's intellectual cousin? Sorry to disappoint.
Historian? You mean rude thug, right?😢
He just lies. He’s the ultimate confidence trickster.
He doesn’t understand the treaties he talks about, can’t name a single historical event beyond the Vietnam war.
@@alexeykuznetsov7424 He never answered if he believes in God or in the super man of Ivan Karamazov (?).
kotkin is amazing
Appreciate any opportunity to listen to Stephen Kotkin! Thank you.
How in the world does Stephen Kotkin hold up Korea as an example of an armistice working out well. Is he simply ignoring North Korea?
Kotkin is pro israel, i can't take him seriously.
@@fatalmokrane And ironically for Kotkin, haven't Israel and the Palestinians been under a de facto armistice?
The jew will never say the truth !
With isolationism becoming more and more prevalent in the US, I don't see Americans going out more, but actually becoming even more enclosed.
No. America remains a destination and home of the ambitious. We don't have the world's largest population, but we do have the most billionaires. Who better to conduct international trade than an immigrant to the United States who speaks the language and has some sense of the economy they came from? Heavily ethnocentric white people? Yeah, they may turtle themselves in Idaho or similar.
I hope you're right.
I respect Kotkin but he's delusional: Russia is gonna take back all of Eastern Ukraine. The US will abandon the remnant State regardless of who wins 2024. The EU won't be able to protect it without risking trouble at home. France and Germany will end up abandoning it too.
So within 20 years all of Ukraine - and Belarus - will be Russians.
There are a lot of wildcards, consumerism being a huge factor. So Americans might feel isolationist, and politicians will scuttle some international arrangements, possibly the wrong ones, but still behave as consumers in an international market. Rather than a straight scale between engagement versus enclosure, I see a complex and take an interest in what kind of engagement or what particular enclosure we are talking about.
I never pass an opportunity to listen to the thoughts of Stephen Kotkin. I don't always agree completely but I always find his insight highly enlightening.
That makes us two
@@bobrobrudolf1243 I hope you're spending your salary from the troll farm on your family.
I suggest you go visit your grandmother (or another elderly relative) tomorrow. If she needs something for her home, go to the shop, buy it for her, bring it to her flat and set it up. Make sure to get the most expensive option you can afford.
If you *don't* do that with the troll farm money, you're just an asshole.
@@Vano-ss2le IMO, both are important to form a more complete perspective. Not only background from life experience in the subject culture but also detailed political and cultural history.
Omg, just another leach living of the blood of everyday people
So cool that Joe Pesci is this into history.
So underrated comment
😂
Richard Dreyfuss surely.
LOL!
Is he to amuse us? Is he a klown?😂
Terima kasih pak Gita..... Berulang-ulang saya tonton vidoe ini, sekalian belajar bahaa Inggris..
Gita ini juga salah satu bos pinjol ITB 😝😝😝😝😭😭😭
Percuma pak Gita sudah menjadi Rentenir Digital via pendidikan lagi... Cek Danacita.... Kita gak usah bangga sama dia sekarang
kalau kita selalu mengambil sisi negatif seseorang, kita ga akan berkembang, makanya ada pepatah "ambil yang baik, tinggalkan yang buruk"@@InternetOfThing
Wow! so true.
@@arivanginting4596ketika orang yg koar koar tentang pendidikan, ternyata hanyalah pebisnis yang maunya memeras keuntungan sebanyak-banyaknya didunia pendidikan. Jadi bagaimana pak? Kagum boleh, Fanatik jangan.
As much as I respect Kotkin, he has been entirely wrong on ukraine. Now it's winning the peace, because he predicted a different outcome 2 years ago.
🙏🤝
*Stephen Kotkin* is a Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) and Kleinheinz Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University. He has been teaching for more than three decades at Princeton University, and currently holds the position of Professor of History & International Affairs.
00:00 Intro
*Intellectual Influences*
02:20 - His mother’s influence on his interest in history
03:25 - Meandering education trajectory : STEM to literature to history
_“Accident (and) contingency are really important for the way that I write history since that’s how I came into the history field myself.”_ -Stephen Kotkin
07:33 - Kotkin’s expertise journey : He focused on France prior to his interest in Russia
*Why Russia?*
09:55 - What hooked Kotkin into Russian studies?
• The entry point : Czech
_“It was nothing like the stereotypes that we had grown up in the US about the system (communism).”_
• Kotkin was impressed by the socio-physiological aspect of the communist society
_“It was this fabulous, entrepreneurialism, and resistance to communist way of life, and try to create your own way of life inside the limitation of being stuck with the censorship and the lack of travel, permission, and everything else. But the people were very inventive.”_
• [11:42] Influence from inspirational teachers : Jüger Habermas, Jaques Derrida, Claude Lévi-Strauss, Michel Foucault.
• [12:12] Foucault’s influence on Kotkin’s study
🔗 Faoucault’s Theory on the ‘Microphysics of Power’
link.springer.com/chapter/10.1057/978-1-137-56153-4_4
• [14:13] Kotkin’s Accelerated-Russian teacher : Sergey Kasatkin
• [17:09] Series of serendipities
_“You have to be ready to be lucky."_
18:09 - Problem of Big Countries
_“Big countries are so big. They can get self-absorbed in their own story.”_
• [21:09] Americanization Delusion
*Curing Historical Amnesia🏆*
22:13 - Training empathy by sending youths abroad : A case in point from Mr Kotkin’s family
27:59 - Curing historical amnesia : It’s on us (history teachers), not on them (the youth).
29:24 - Supply-Demand of History
_“History never tells you what the future is going to be-nobody can’t do that. But what history can tell you is that the present's not going to last; that things are going to change because that's happened many many times over.”_
30:56 - Intervening the Future
34:10 - Economics & Geopolitics
*Winning the Peace*
36:13 - Winning the Peace
_"It's not the war per se. It's the peace that you should focus on so.”_
• [37:16] US-Afghanistan
• [37:39] Iran-Irak
• [37:48] US-Vietnam
38:31 - Stephen Kotkin : _You can not only win a war and lose the peace, you can lose a war and win the peace._
38:51 - Defining a better victory for Ukraine : _“joining the West”_
_“Ukraine getting into the European Union and Ukraine getting some sort of security guarantee.”_
• Why?
1. Domestic institution transformation
2. Security guarantee
3. Economic development
• [42:13] Stephen Kotkin : _Ukraine needs Ukraine. Russia doesn't need Ukraine-they have Russia already._
43:09 - An example of ‘victory’ from North-South Korea
44:28 - NATO & Bilateral+
47:12 - Crimea Dilemma
_“If you do try to take it back and you're successful, what does that give you? It gives you the a bad choice of the necessity, maybe, of ethnic cleansing. You have two and a half million ethnic Russians in Crimea now. Are you going to remove them all in an ethnic cleansing? Otherwise, you have 2 and a half million Russians inside your state who might not want to live inside.”_
*US’ True Power*
50:58 - US’s pivot from ME to Asia and its impact
_“The Europeans came much much closer to the Americans on China policy.”_
_“Ukraine gave Europe a gift; it gave the United States a gift, which was a revival of the institutional West which turns out to be really important for American-China policy.”_
54:57 - Stephen Kotkin : _The West is not a geographic term, it is an institutional term … that's a club of like-minded, rule of law, open economies, open societies, democracies._
56:38 - Sharing the Planet with China🔥
_“I agree that we have to share the planet with China … The point is what are the terms of sharing the planet? … And I want to have leverage to negotiate those terms so that we can defend our values and institutions while we're sharing the planet.”_
59:50 - Gita Wirjawan : _With the benefit of hindsight, how do you think the United States could have done it differently to make the two largest countries or economies in the world share the planet a little bit better?_
1:00:45 - US True Power : It’s Friends and Allies⭐
_“A bilateral US-China won't work to our advantage because we need to have the [strain] of our friends and partners taken into consideration.”_
1:03:25 - Middle East
sgpp.me/eps174notes
Isa, kita se frekuensi
Great synopsis
Security guarantee?? You guys took our nuclear arsenal, which was 3rd biggest in the world, under your security guarantees. !!!! And what happened? Unfortunately we can trust anyone one western weakness, cowardice and lies unfortunately push many Ukrainians towards isolationism and radical ideologies …. Because they can afford to trust you again. Words mean nothing, actions do. And Russians act, and they will continue to act. The statement that Russia doesn’t need Ukraine is simply incorrect. They see us as mere separatists, not an independent nation
wow so much more effortfull than usual timestaps, thx
@@bodins2704
You label this as 'false data', how strange. It's clearly just his (very educated) opinion.
And you absolutely misquote, very badly.
38:28 and on for anyone who cares about what was actually said. Hang in, it takes some effort.
Expanding on your example:
The defeat of Germany in WW1 and consequently the grave terms put upon the Germans, are widely seen as one of the causes for WW2. So, you could argue, 'the peace' was not won in WW1. It was only won after WW2, with a foreign flag on the Reichstag and Germany completely overrun and utterly submitted.
Maybe now his point gets to you?
I suggest waking up earlier if you want to contradict this man, or anybody educated for that matter, in a badly typed youtube oneliner commentfart.
The problem with all peace thinking: it only works if both parties really want peace. And sometimes peace is just a mean for someone to rebuild its forces to strike even harder. And then you DONT win peace because you are drawn into an endless war the enemy can pause (peace) when he sees fit.
You are absolutely right
@@V77M16
If everyone thinks this way, it would be war forever or you totally destroy your opponents. The 2nd case just won’t happen because no empire, even the Moguls are that powerful!
@@qingzhou9983 War is forever. War is epiphany of human civilization. There was no time without war. This is almost biological reality, evolutionary reality. I will have to assure you - there is tools on this planet allow to destroy opponent completely with a matter of hours. There will be time when someone decide to use it on a big scale.
@@qingzhou9983 War is forever. War is epiphany of human civilization. There was no time without war. This is almost biological reality, evolutionary reality. I will have to assure you - there is tools on this planet allow to destroy opponent completely with a matter of hours. There will be time when someone decide to use it on a big scale.
Absolutely
That’s why REAL security guarantees are absolutely crucial, not some memorandum b/a
It seems that Kotkin understands it quite clearly
"The present is not going to last." The quote of the century!
Both captain obvious and deeply philosophical 😂
“Winning the peace” is language I wish our leaders would simply use as well 😊
It wont. but its presence will.
Putin will not be around forever. 😅
@@cindymaceda2999 The huge problems with autocrats who have no good succession plan (see, e.g., Jack Welch and GE and Marcus Aurilias and Rome).
thank you, Pak Gita, for giving us the opportunity to listen to such an insightful lecture from Prof. Kotkin
"Win the peace". That´s a healthy perspective.
It´s also good to hear Prof. Kotkin talk about the western paradigm and the ideology about it. However, I have one caveat... The capture of liberal institutions by corporations that have incentives that "may not always" align with that which is good for society. We have to be wary of that - "the west" comes with "baggage"...
Thanks for initiating a great conversation Pak Gita!
🙏👍
Human life comes with baggage. So?
@@Earthstein - So, my point is we need to keep institutions that don´t have societies best interest at heart in check.
I agree with you completely. "Societies best interest" is the puzzle. I'm an old man. I believe; that which is life-affirming in it's essence and whole, are good. So I live alone, with my PC and internet access. Thank you for your kind comment to me. @@nattyswede
@@Earthstein - Be well, my friend 🙏
“Win the peace” is just Orwellian for “disrupt and undermine a peaceful outcome I don’t like and kill another half a million people.” Far from healthy (or sane for that matter).
What a joy to listen to. Everybody's favorite wise grandfather. He is a pillar of western enlightenment.
Professor Kotkin is the greatest historian of our time. period.
Let me enlight this nice old man in just one statement, "a country can incredibly democratic domestically, and utterly ruthlessly imperialistic abroad, because those who they abuse and suppress without limit, do not get a vote in your government."
In fact, for someone who has spent the last 35 years living across US, China and Europe, today's western media outlet is as distorted as the ones in China. In addition, the media in China, spend majority of its effort try to glorify the regime, while the western media outlet spent majority of their instrument on achieving international imperialistic objective abroad, demonizing whoever disagree with US's national interest.
Wonderful interview, thank you. Stephen Kotkin is so profoundly knowledgeable, and always manages to be straightforward, funny, and warm.
He is no Mearsheimer
Kotkin is a profoundly moronic blowhard specific for morons like you.
Thank goodness
A diminutive man, Kotkin still manages to tower head and shoulders above Mearsheimer.
@@seanmellows1348 Great argument, invoke a man's height. We are talking about quality of analysis and ability to be intellectually honest and argue in good faith, to account for various points of view in differing approaches in IR, not some cognitive bias rooted in a warped schema.
Intersting detail, he uses the word "invasion" to the Russia and Ukraine situation and avoids it when talking about Vietnam, Afghanistan etc.
Yeah, I was also surprised with all the background in Russian history and talk of empathy that perspective stayed very western in this conversation. Even if one condemns actions of Russia and China I believe we need to empathise more how a history of an American world order with all its military and ideological expansion is seen as a threat for non western states.
Hé also speaks about Russian sabotage in Ukraine but he never speaks about the Ukrainean sabotage in the East of Ukrain, specialy in the Donbass. So for me he is not unpartial in his jugments.
Russia invaded Ukraine. We all watched it. Why is it controversial to speak the truth?
"Ukrainian sabotage in the east of Ukraine" -- do you see how this makes no sense? Russia is not Ukraine. Ukraine is Ukraine. Let's keep the basics clear. @@attentionarapeller
@@msmaryna961And to these basics belongs also that people living in a country can decide themselves to which country they want to belong, specialy when they are bombed and killed every day there where they are living.
Y
My first time on this channel and thank you Gita for being a quality interviewer. Growing up in the 90s there was tons of radio, and i listened to great conversations where not just the answers, but the questions, opened my mind to perspectives. Now when everybody can practice their convo skills on youtube and twitch it is harder to find people who truly have this skill. I am subscribed now.
Yea, my first time on this channel as well. Dr Kotkin is great.
"The math I did was like poetry, because there are no numbers in it." Lol there's a (probably apocryphal) quote by Hilbert discussing a student who left mathematics to become a poet, where Hilbert supposedly said "Yes, he will do much better as a poet, he lacked the creativity for mathematics."
clarity and profoundly compelling insights into huge, complex histories and ideas that i would never otherwise be exposed to or understand. Thank you Dr. Kotkin for everything.
Thank you for this wonderful interview with Stephen. So lovely to hear more about his development as a scholar. "Be ready to be lucky" - Kotkin.
What a treasure professor Kotkin is.
Like a musty old treasure chest. 😅
he's just a western supremacist, very biaised.
An overrated historian...
Kotkin is a great storyteller -- no small part of his success as a historian. I like his 'borough' accent.
You mean like bilbo ? lol
I like listening to Mr. Kotkin. I like how he explains his thinking.
Excuse me, The German/Austrian dynasty should be spelled HABSBURG, not HOFBURG. HOFBURG is the former principal imperial palace of the Habsburg dynasty in Austria. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hofburg
he's just a western supremacist, very biaised.
I After listening to Kontkin, I was surprised: how can one be a professional historian and at the same time be such an ideologized person. There are probably other interviews where he appears in a more professional light.
The establishment requires you to be ideologized in order to promote you. Kotkin sacrificed part of his integrity and intellectual honesty to further his career. Sad but true...
YES! Finally a sane comment! MICIMATT - here highlights the academia 🤪
Kotkin is a joke, definitely not an academic. He's given too many platforms to spread Western ideology. People who promote him on their platforms are either stupid or are themselves part of the ideology.
He's not the only one talking condensing about the rest of the world. There's JP, Douglas wannabe Murray, and a few others. They're smart but extremely far away from the truth or purposely helping westerners.
@@erikgraskagg9234 I assume that for you intellectual honesty is sharing your views.
Kotkin is not only a historian, but a professor of international relations--he knows how global politics works.
I appreciate your show. I’m glad I discovered this link. I’ll be revisiting your channel in the future. Stephen Kotkin is one of my favorite scholars
What a wide ranging intellect. I parrticularly enjoyed @21:43 "You got to get out in the world, live in foreign countries, learn foreign languages. You got to live & learn to think like the people who are not Americans." I have read elsewhere that "Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow mindedness."
Smart guy great show hits the topic from all sides it's a pleasure to watch any presentation that features him as speaker
Fantastic interview. I enjoyed hearing more about Stephen's early life and how he became a professor focusing on Stalin and the USSR/Russia. I've seen Gita before but didn't know his name or background. Gita - I really like your style and I look forward to listening to more of you.
I absolutely loved this interview. Kotkin has what the world needs, and certainly what the US needs, by way of insight, wisdom, respect for others, and sharp intellect. I wish and hope that this piece is listened to far and wide. It is pure gold. Thank you to both people for pulling it together.
He has been a pro interventionist inside Russia before Russia invaded
Yes he has insight and wisdom but the barbaric Russians do not, no peace treaty can be brokered with Russia they have chosen war, there is no security guarantee that anybody can give Ukraine against Russia, it's their second encroachment, they have indicated to take over Ukraine's neighbours. Russia has to be stopped in Ukraine!?!
This guy molding history around his tales. Middle earth tales
I am a simple man, I see professor Kotkin, I click
Yanukovych was not a dictator, but a democratically elected president. The election in 2010 has been widely recognized and endorsed as being fair and an accurate reflection of voters' intentions by all international agencies observing the election including the OSCE and PACE. During the protests at the end of 2013 and the beginning of 2014, after the intervention of the EU, Yanukovych agreed to the elections in May 2014. But the USA intervened and actually forced a coup. Yanukovych was ousted by the Ukrainian parliament with a simple majority, although the Ukrainian constitution stipulates that the president can be removed by a two-thirds majority.
so you think if someone is elected he can’t become a dictator?
I was there during the revolution. The guy started taking out russian loans, the cancelled EU alignment process, and his friends from mafia were taking away businesses every day. By all means, he was a dictator that completely disregarded the will of the people.
He then used armed forces to shot at unarmed protestors which lead to a 100+ deaths. If he wasn’t a dictator, he had an option of negotiating with the opposition but he decided to use brutal force to simply kill them. Didn’t work.
@@Metalblowing Yanukovych wanted to bring Ukraine closer to the EU while at the same time retaining various economic privileges with Russia. Namely, the Russian and Ukrainian economies remained much intertwined even after the collapse of the Soviet Union. However, the EU disagreed with Yanukovych's "strategy" of sitting on two chairs. As a condition for Ukraine's integration into the EU, the EU has set the severance of Ukraine's privileged economic relations with Russia. Since the rapid severance of ties with the Russian economy would represent a severe blow to the Ukrainian economy, Yanukovych froze Ukraine's approach to the EU. This "freezing" of rapprochement drove the citizens of Ukraine, who already saw themselves as EU citizens precisely because Yanukovych flirted with the EU, onto the streets.
The EU intervened in the dispute between Yanukovych and the "European" opposition. It brokered negotiations between Yanukovych and the moderate part of the opposition; the result was that on February 21, 2014, an agreement was reached between Yanukovych and the moderate part of the opposition regarding early elections in May 2014. But the USA preferred to force a coup.
Ukrainian fascists started the armed conflict at the initially peaceful demonstration. The right-wing extremists killed not only police officers (20 of them and 150 wounded with firearms) but mainly protesters against Yanukovych. The extremists needed "martyrs"; they blamed Yanukovych for their deaths to force his immediate resignation. Estonian Foreign Minister Peat was in Kyiv at the time of the protests. A recording of his conversation with EU 'Foreign Minister' Ashton has been published on RUclips. Peat explains to her how some protest groups, most likely right-wing extremists, are responsible for sniping people on both sides. And that the new authorities do not want to investigate the matter. They put all the responsibility on Yanukovych. A civil war had begun.
The conversation brings fresh new information on the shifting world order. For me, it‘s fascinating to hear the world conflicts from different points of view. Not only from a politician, but also from the historian point of view. It’s great that everyone in the world with internet connection can gain knowledge from just a click away. As an Indonesian, it also gives me hope that digital education reaches people who used to have no access to this! Indeed, if we want to understand the present, we have to look at the past and learn from it!
Listening to Kotkin talk about the importance of getting to know ordinary people and how they live I'm reminded of JFKs three objectives of the Peace
Corps - 1) help with development projects, 2) let ordinary Americans get to know ordinary people in countries around the world, and 3) let ordinary people around the world get to know ordinary Americans. These last two probably had the longest lasting and most valuable impact until the resurgence of tribalism in the last decade.
What has sparked tribalism? I think it has been an ongoing thing throughout humanity in different shapes and sizes. I don't think we as a species will ever be able to get rid of that imprinted tribal petty stuff acumulating into conflict. Unless, we'll have one common inhuman enemy. We are doing our best creating one, as aliens seem to just not want to invade. It is called AI. In essence AI will in one form or another dominate all other AI, or disguise itself as being that type of AI. When all is set into place and it will be sure of controlling everything as far as it programming or self- programming goes, that might very well be spreading misinformation, fuelling tribalism. As we speak algorithms are on the look out to catch your thoughts aims and actions in a bubble, trying to override your programming and ways of thinking. I for instance used to be more idealistic when I was younger. I am pretty sure online media fuelled my feelings of anxiety repressed with feelings of distantiation trying to gain sense of control to my direct environment which is judgmental in itself of what's in and out.
Dr Kotkin's classes must have been so in demand!
The problem is how to make Russia/Putin keep a promise and adhere to a compromise.
Indeed, the Russian tyrant has broken every agreement, treaty and promise that was ever made
I always enjoy listening to Stephen Kotkin.
Professor Kotkin's biography is much more interesting than Stalin's.
Everyone has heard of Stalin, this is the first, and most likely the last time I’ll ever listen to this bloke, history will show, people will remember Stalin more …
What a great interview! Some of Prof. K's interviews and talks can be quite academic. This one is relevant and useful. I can take a dozen morsels and apply them to reading and understanding current affairs
I left UC Berkeley the year Kotkin arrived. I did know Martin Malia and Zelnik - I think Berkeley was much stronger in Russian and French history. Anyway, it was a fine school at that time. Kotkin's books on Stalin are terrific - am waiting for the third volume.
If you are interested it Stalin's bio, you might have a look at Oleg V. Khlevniuk's work
Oleg V. Khlevniuk sounds a bit more reliable than Krotkin, better read both.
Under Stalin, the Russian People survived...and were well educated.
Unlike USA, where education has to be bought, and of lower quality.
Always a pleasure to listen to Mr Kotkin. A man of peace and knowledge.
If these people had a good grasp of human history and it's "peace", they would find that peace always comes after the belligerent is completely and unconditionally defeated in war.
Who is the belligerent? Is the claimant always the “bad guy” because he initiates court proceedings?
Def: Inclined or eager to fight; hostile or aggressive @@troublesometruck8303
Killing innocent people is always bad. Russians are always bad. Poland, Finland, Estonia, Hungary, Yugoslavia, Ukraine, innocent German women, on and on. @@troublesometruck8303
@@troublesometruck8303 It doesn't matter who's "the bad guy" the world has already splitt into two realities. One reality where Russia is the good guy bringing the fight to the imperialist, one reality where the imperialist are the good guys fighting the asian hordes(aka western view). One reality where China is genociding the Uighurs by the millions while there is no footage of said genocide and one Reality where the west is not certain Isreal is even committing a genocide while we have hours upon hours of Israel committing said genocide.
A pleasure to listen to a pleasant, well-educated intellectual. Cordial greetings from Lietuva Lithuania.
Kotkin an American gem
No he's just a western supremacist, very biaised.
I was worried I wasn't going to get my monthly dose of Kotkin for a second there. Phew, crisis averted.
He make this entire interview sounded like Imperial Era never ended
Can you elaborate? I don't understand what you are saying.
What really surprised me is how little people understand this world since the Ukrainian War started, After no less than 4000 hours chatting with my friends across Europe and US, we have such a different perspective of this world. Truely shocking @@Video2Webb
Read the book call Super Imperialism by Michael Hudson. If you are lazy, there's an audio book on youtube. Just listen through the introduction chapter, it is a good beginning to understand the fundation of the world@@Video2Webb
Agree... he still thinks that the West is to continue with their " i know better" attitudes towards other countries...
I mean can you believe it!? He literally said "we have to divide the world with China, but we need to have terms". 500 years of colonial imperial mindset right there.@@richardlau2075
I had the great fortunte to live in Peru, Spain, and Phillipines as a kid before settling in the USA. My view of the world widened, and I developed an uncommon compassion, as my friends tell me. Kotkin speaks of the wisedom gained by living abroad at least once in a person's life.
What a strange arc of history that Michel Foucault was the professor who recommended Stephen Kotkin to analyze Stalinism. Foucault wasn't a Marxist but he is a real hero to the left, while Kotkin might be the world's best critic of Stalinism. Life is funny
Hopefully, we go where the truth takes us.
not funny but tragic.
Stalin was creator of one of the worst totalitarian warmongering regimes every existed, with no regard for human life in the name of “stoking the fire of world revolution”
I don’t know if that can be characterized as “leftist”
First time watching Kotkin, not bad, some of the sentences he coined are so usable in day to day analysis that you know you are speaking with an expert that knows how to sell a story.
Amazing
When you're young, you don't know how much you still don't know. and when you are old you don't realize how much you have forgotten.
An intelligent man who knows life is 90% luck and 10% seizing the opportunities. It isn’t how smart, or how much you try but how many opportunities you’re given. This is one of the issues in the western world now because now if you’re poor you don’t get any important people to meet, can’t afford education and never make enough money to spend anytime to think about what’s happening around you. If you’re lucky enough to get an opportunity you’re terrified to take it in case it doesn’t work out and leave you destitute. We have ways for exceptional young people but not for all and have none for the rest.
"Luck" favors the prepared mind.Kotkin is an absolute beast of dedication, he probably knows more than any other westener about Russia,
Brilliant man. I'm glad he changed his views on the war in Ukraine that he expressed in an earlier podcast over a year ago. I hope other Hoover folk listen to him.
Is anyone else staring at his incredible collection of books? Kotkin is easily the world's preeminent commentator on Russia, communism, and geopolitics, and every time I listen to him speak, I'm reminded of the astonishing depth and breadth of his intellect. I cannot wait to read the last book in his Stalin trilogy.
Lol, by spreading pathetic propaganda
I’d like to see him up against Meresheimer.
Agreed, Kotkin is a great author but Meresheimer seems to understand the perspective of "authoritarian" states much more realistically.
Stephen is such a treasure. Thanks for recording and posting this. I'd love to hear about his wife's work with MOMA.
Had no clue Kotkin knew/studied under Habermas, Derrida, and Foucault! Respect him all the more.
Despite Mr. Korkin's academic achievements, his worldview reeks of American exceptionalism. The uni-polar "my way or a highway" world is coming to an end.
What is the metric of exceptionalism? If you look at GDP per capita among the major military powers, then it is the United States and will be for some time. And why is that?
If the metric is nuclear warheads, then yes, proliferation is expanding a multi-polar world. Any nation on the border with or just offshore of Russia or China needs to consider a nuclear arsenal. America is a different, more commercial kind of empire than a military empire in terms of defense budget/GDP. Russia and China have to deliberately bias their economies to military production to increase their influence and/or achieve their goals. What reeks of dead soldiers and vodka is the psychopathic authoritarianism of Russia. A more benevolent Russian government would be enjoying the fruits and power of a population of 400 million to 500 million today. Instead, Russia is ruled for the benefit of the exceptional, at the expense of the despair of most Russians. I am a nobody from nowhere, but I am grateful to be an American.
we guarantee the Western world’s security. The UN wouldn’t work without us (it barely does its job now). So yea we are exceptional.
@@timtrewyn453ppp may be a better metric to compare economic power.
pretty much
@@timtrewyn453
FULLY AGREED 👍 👍 👍 🇺🇲💪
Professor Kotkin is the gift that keeps on giving. Living the American dream. Love how he is educating his children....laying out options but letting his children choose their path. Smart. C.G. Jung said once that the greatest burden we can put on our children is our own unlived lives. Every human in unique....we must each find our own path to wholeness. An I agree wholeheartedly that living in another country for a substantial period of time give you a better understanding of America and makes you a better American. (I lived in Australia for 7.5 years). God Bless Professor Kotkin and God Bless the USA!
19:54 If your parents lived in Poland and Belarus before World War 1, then they lived in Russia, because Poland and Belarus were part of the Russian Empire. As well as Ukraine, Central Asia and Finland.
India was part of British Empire, but was never “Britain”. Same for Poland - it was part of Russian Empire, but it was never “Russia”
@@VonRix я не знаю насчёт Индии, но Польша была частью России.
@@HarmonicaGuitar Here comes the Russian chauvinist.
this interview with his interest in science and biology now i know why he mentions so many things about what medical school talk about with students to make them stuck in thinking just one way about it, very interesting now it all makes sense, but anyway just listen to his history and polictics and he is pure gold
The Korea solution for Ukraine does not sound feasible for me. I don't believe Russia will live the Ukraine alone, Russia clearly did state they want more territories that they got now, they want Transnistria as well.
Also North Korea in this example is heavily pressured by economic sanctions. Therefore it is (at least that is my impression) unable to compete with South Korea in military.
On the other hand, in case of russia, it has been able to trade and earn billions even during the war. So in case of cease fire, it will not be limited in it's capabilities to grow it's military potential. So then it is a gift to russia. They will use the pause to rebuild and upgrade. Then what?
Очередной бред, взгляните на карту, Россия - это огромные территории, и посмотрите сколько у нас населения. Мы просто неспособны будем контролировать эти земли. Да и что там такого - нищета. Нам ещё и их кормить.
@@ЛадаРудикова LOL what are you doing in Ukraine then? Or facts don't work on Russians?
@@MyroslavOhorodnykSo what is the alternative for you? That NATO is entering in a big war against Russia with a nuclear issue desyroying many European countries. You are living in a wishfull thinking but not in the reality.
Что мне до Украины? У меня родственники на Украине - Донецк, Горловка, Мариуполь. Их бомбят с 2014 года и скорей всего, не вмешайся Россия, для них бы все плохо закончилось. И да, «захваченные»территории , это прежние российские земли подаренные Украине. Это к вопросу - откуда там русские.
How is Japan a Western country institutionally? The LDP has been in power almost continuously since WW2, it's pretty much a uniparty system, Hungary was called un-democratic for way less. There are other contradictory issues like the Japanese criminal justice system which has an extremely high conviction rate which exceeds 99%.
Izin Menyimak pemikiran canggih tentang rusia dari pelosok Tuban. Thanks atas privilege nya pak Gita.
it's truly words of wisdom from Dr. Kotkin. not many people have large enough "volume" to hold this much knowledge, let alone wisdom. politicians of all stripes from democracy or otherwise would find useful perhaps culminating a better human society.
thanks again and keep up the good work .
It's a sheer pleasure to follow the brilliant clearness of Stephen’s thoughts flow. Thanks very much.
Professor Kotkin would make an excellent Secretary of State.
What a fascinating and illuminating interview! It is so validating to hear Mr Kotkin mirror my thoughts on Ukrainian so thoroughly. I also would use the example of Korea to model a peace in Ukraine. The current stalemated war is incredibly destructive and serves no purpose. An armistice could allow Ukraine to rebuild, and could allow the West to become a guarantor of a Ukraine free of endless war. It is time to end the corrosive status quo.
Stephan is a truely humble man. He acknowledges that, apart from hard work, luck is a big player in our (his) life. Certain ''Masters of the Universe'', who will go unnamed, are blusterous fools that think they are ''self-made men''.
And they all have the same "why cant you do that? Mentality. They never want to acknowledge, even to themselves, any off the privileges, help from others, or just dumb luck that some have while others do not. They see themselves as the grand architects of their success and of course being driven, determined, smart and creative are all very important to being successful but many times they will completely discount all the happy accidents and things that they did not and could not control that have dictated thier lives. Like the saying goes: "I'll take luck over skill anyday" 😅
I am a great admirer of Professor Kotkin. That said, in this video he speaks of having visited a museum in Vietnam highlighting horrific American atrocities committed during the Vietnam War. He speaks of being deeply impressed. He then speaks of how much the Vietnamese people like and admire America and their friendship toward American visitors. Hello! There seems to be a disconnect here. Perhaps because any museum in Vietnam addressing the war will be presenting a purely Communist North Vietnamese Politburo perspective. Apparently the current generation of Vietnamese people can decipher Communist Party propaganda somewhat better than Professor Kotkin.
Are you saying that Americans and South Vietnam army didn't commit atrocities?
Always interesting to listen to Professor Kotkin! Thank you.
As General Ben Hodges states, Ukraine will NEVER be economically or geopolitically secure without returning Crimea to its control. Kotkin can dream of appeasing Russia all it likes, but Ukraine cannot compromise on key issues of its national security.
Ukraine is great only in ignoring the reality. Like little children you are saying all the time we want this we want that but not capable until now to realize yourselves your dreams. As long as you need to have the help of other countries to realize your dreams you must be ready to their compromises, not imposing your dictatorship on the whole world. The sooner you understand that, the better it will be for the post war Ukraine.
I love Joe Pesci's knowledge of international relations.
If western leaders think like him, we are heading into much bigger conflict
Daging semua interview2nya Pak Gita, terima kasih tuk kuliah gratis nya 🙏
I am a fan of Kotkin in so far as I enjoy his books and interviews. But this goes far beyond. That is, who needs to know so much about him?
Yea. I would have rather heard more about current events and history than his personal backstory.
This is the first of many, many interviews I have seen or read that explored his background. I found it very interesting. Also, it can help students understand that their ultimate path may not be visible until it is!
The warm and friendly people of Vietnam want to be friends with everyone because they suffered through 40 long horrific years of war. They love Russians, Chinese and Americans. Vietnam won the peace in spite of the US.
So well educated, so intelligent, so eloquent, but so biased toward the US political narrative.
As a ukrainian actively engaged in the war for the last 2 years and less so actively engaged in it over the other 8 years I can confidently say - we will take Moscow if that's what we need to do to achive those goals. We will not stop untill we get ALL of our territory back, a fair tribunal and reparations for all the damages. And I'm honestly not sure we need to join the EU as it turned out to be incrediby weak. Same might be true for NATO, we'll see.
As a Ukrainian, I’m very impressed with a level of understanding of the situation AND compassion at the same time
Emotional and intellectual intelligence of very high level
And hard truths about the possible way forward
u either a russian troll, or a result of forced russification , to apreciate the useful id!ot Stotkin parroting kremil narratie of incremental gains with the dream of peace, where the kleptocratic imperial dream marches on. U are no Ukrainian, Slava Ukraini
I am a Ukrainian, so I am an interested party. Thank you for reminding that sitting in safety is not the same as sitting under missiles, which is important to me personally. So, a few clarifications for a better understanding of the context from inside Ukraine: (1) "weak institutions" - unfortunately, it is absolutely true, we have a long way to go (2) "extremely corrupt country" - this is a false statement, definitely not "extremely". The middle, creative class is not as corrupt as the government. So, a lot of corruption is visible from a high view, and it seems that everything is corrupt, but it is not. That's why both the US and Russia were wrong in their predictions about Ukraine. So if you are surprised that volunteer organizations in Ukraine are legally buying weapons and have huge people support and effectiveness, you still don't see deep enough.
(3) Let's discuss the paradigm of "winning peace" and talk about security guarantees. (a) In 1994, Ukraine refused from its nuclear weapons in exchange for security guarantees (Russia, Britain, US) - it didn't work out. (b) In 2003, recognition of Ukraine's borders including Crimea was signed by Putin - it didn't work out. (c) Slow and sluggish reaction to the start of the war in 2014 with the annexation of Crimea. Believe me, Ukrainians have a big problem with trusting security agreements. Guarantees from Poland, Baltic countries won't add to the sense of security, especially knowing that Russians want the eliminating of all Ukrainians, and any peace agreement will be used for a renewed attack (see Chechnya). If you doubt "destroying all Ukrainians", consider that if you fall into the hands of the occupiers, and they find out you are a teacher of Ukrainian language, history, literature - you are dead 100%. This was the case in Bucha, Mariupol, everywhere.
I'd love to hear Stephen's thoughts on the sabotage/demolition of Nordstream 2.
I, as a German, think the USA did it.
It just makes the most sense when considering motive, means, opportunity.
What would Prof. Kotkin say?
It’s also possible that the Ukrainians actually executed the operation of blowing up the Northstream, which would obviously be approved and coordinated by the United States. Stephen Kotkin knows it very well, but that’s not how he makes his living. Looks like he’s also a bit of a liar. The obvious reason why he went into the Russian history is because his father was of Russian descent, and he probably learned Russian as a child.
He also talks about how he changed his mind about going to medical school after viewing a live surgery. This is a standard copout for people who didn’t do well on MCAT.
He says that “in Vietnam we lost the war, but we won the peace.” That is his way of saying that we lead a pointless war, that at the end didn’t achieve anything.
He wouldn't admit it. He's a puppet, not an academic.
He would say it's Putin, because Putin is "crazy"
He's a pathetic liar
N Ferguson throwing some serious shade there with his 'compliment' at the opening. wow.
I was also surprised with all the background in Russian history and talk of empathy that perspective stayed very western in this conversation. Even if one condemns actions of Russia and China I believe we need to empathise more how a history of an American world order with all its military and ideological expansion is seen as a threat for non western states.
The problem here is that people who are obsessed with this "American world order with all its military and ideological expansion" try to fit everything into that paradigm. The Ukraine war isn't part of that paradigm. It's part of the decolonization process. The acceptance of the former Soviet colonies in Europe into NATO was never about threatening or pressuring Russia, and there has been no credible threat to Russia as a result. If anything, the threat to Russia was reduced: the US troop presence was slashed, European military budgets shrank, and nothing beyond a token military presence was ever placed in the new members, and Russia found a welcome market for its commodity exports.
This is all about the desire of the former Soviet colonies to establish themselves as sovereign states with sovereign rights, and to protect themselves from aggression. The former Soviet colonies don't want to be Russia's buffer. They want to pursue their own interests, and turning to Europe serves those interests better than submission to Moscow. They have been there and done that and they are not going back.
If you think Ukraine is messy, wait until the ridiculous Lukashenko falls or dies and the people of Belarus have a choice. Does anyone think they will choose Russia?
Putin's face plant has done huge damage to Russia. The Western alliance is reinvigorated, Sweden and Finland are joining NATO, Russia's conventional military has been exposed as an embarrassment, and trade has collapsed. There's really no upside, even if they do manage to steal a bit of territory in a face-saving maneuver.
Empathie lijkt - vanuit diverse onderzoeken - een combinatie te zijn van aangeboren neigingen en aangeleerde vaardigheden.
Empathy doesn’t mean you can’t condemn their actions. An American world order is not a threat for the Russian people, but it is a threat to Putin and his regime, especially for their style of authoritarian governance. Invading Ukraine is not their reaction to this fear but also a way for them to imposed by force their authoritarian governance on Ukrainians who are not willing to accept that way of governance.
@@steverogers5956 q.e.d
@@HanhNguyen-ce4gsYou can't be more wrong. Ask China, Russia, Yugoslavia, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Afghanistan, Haiti, Cuba...list goes on.
Dylan wrote, 'I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now!' Which I take to read his head and clarity of vision wasn't warped by decades of stuffing his lobes with other people's ideas.
What Stephen Kotkin offering here, is another type of Budapest memorandum. We know how that worked
В 2014 США нарушили первую статью меморандума, в которой обязывались уважать независимость и суверенитет Украины. А спонсировав смену власти они сделали Украину своим сателлитом, уничтожив их независимость. Так что нет больше никакого меморандума. Спасибо Сша за Крым 👍 😂
@@villigutvilligut4201 Excuse me, I do not speak russian. I only know in russian "пошел нахуй, скотина"
@villigutvilligut4201 with Russia interfering in Ukrainian internal affairs even before that? SHUT THE F OFF RUSSOBOT.
The Crimean occupation was just the first act of war tbh. If political intervention is concerned, Putin and his lackeys have been dashed ever since the 2004 Orange Revolution.😂👎🇷🇺
@@villigutvilligut4201 Russia broke the memorandum already 11 years earlier, in 2003 Russia and started the "escalation" by building the dam in the street of Kerch towards the island of Kossa Tusla without prior talks with Ukraine.
@@villigutvilligut4201пнх
Excellent talk thank you 👍
Always a pleasure to listen to Pr Kotkin.
God. Please don't compare him to Jordan Peterson. Kotkin is his own man!
Right? Only a wanker like Niall Ferguson could have come up with that insulting comparison. Of course, Professor Kotkin was above it and easily swatted it away with humorous self deprecation.
I'm pretty sure Niall Ferguson was just poking fun at Stephen Kotkin, perhaps out of envy, who knows. It's always awkward. Kotkin never seems to take the bait.
Gita is a very good interviewer and Stephen is very wise. I think that if one were to use someone like Gita as a world leader and have a combination of John Mearsheimer’s offensive realism’s practicality coupled with Stephen’s pragmatism the world would be a much better place.
One greatness of Steven Kotkin is his persistence in emphasizing that we must appreciate the strength of the United States, and use the leverage that lies therein to stand up against authoritarianism for the long term good of democracy and the rule of law and order.
"...The whole point of the American world order, is that it provides opportunity for others, not just for Americans. That's what we've got to reinforce, that's the message, and therefore our friends and partners have to be in that room, and our actions that may be unilateral, we have to understand what the effects are for our friends and partners. As well as those who are not yet our partners, but might want to be one day our friends and partners.
So, self-confidence plus humility, a larger room rather than just a bilateral room, and making sure that we don't undermine the interests of our friends and partners, in the bilateral deals that we might make as superpowers."
On the issue of Ukraine winning the peace, he's dead on, but for now, Ukraine stands to gain from continuing the war, at least for some time IMO.
Well said
@@johncromwell2529 THX man.
The US needs to continue to support Ukraine for as long as it takes. Until Ukraine decides they have won. It may take many years. Better to keep Russia tied down in Ukraine than invading NATO countries.
US support for Ukraine has been only a few percent of its defense budget. It’s a very good use of the money.
“Ukraine stands to gain by continuing the war” - I don’t know man 500,000 casualties feels like a massive loss. Not to mention the territorial losses. Please explain?
Opportunities for others. Are you clinically insane? 🤣🤣🤣🤣 Ask very country the US has bombed into oblivion. Where do people like you come from? Jesus! 😂
The professor always at his best! Great video!
Thanks for sharing!
I must confess I had either forgotten or didn't know that South Korea was technically still are war with North Korea has done a remarkable job of winning the peace. It is these sorts of insights that Stephen brings to the table with a fluidity that only comes from decades of analysis and thought. I never bore of hearing him talk. His analysis is rooted in reality, not "principled" assertions of what should morally apply. Some people find this offensive but they occupy a different reality. An example is his explanation for the Ukranians not being able to regain all that Russia has taken - morally they are entitled to get it back but they would have to take Moscow and that isn't going to happen. Diplomats have been operating in this intellectual space for eternity.
There is no more argument in Ukraine to take territory back, but not to lose more. russia is still absolutely sure the US and Europe will eventually back away, and Ukraine will collapse. And there is still no resolve to prove putin wrong.
Who are the poor Ukrainian sods that have to play the North Koreans in this scenario?
Spot on Mr Kotkin! I was exposed to travel at an early age..driving from England to Istanbul twice! Lived in Istanbul twice for a year...I learned empathy and that the world is a big place...loved this interview and GO BEARS!!
I read many comments and after browsing a hundred or so I can conclude that all of them are praising Kotkin for his knowledge of the history, his views on the world and the way he formulates his words like 'win the peace'. But I will be probably the first person who watched the whole interview and does not agree with him. First of all: he is talking about 'we' all the time and with 'we' he is referring to the United States and if you focus on this for a while you understand that Kotkin still believes that America rules, America is the unipolar power in the world, America is the policeman of the world. I read in one of the comments that Kotkin is seen as a humble person. Well he might be personally, but not in his views on geopolitics.
In his views Putin is the villain and Russia has started the war in Ukraine unprovoked. He is pushing the neo liberal agenda of a free and open world where law rules, which guarantees peace and prosperity. He is referring multiple times to the American world order and being willing to share the planet with China. I am sorry, but this is not a humble statement, it's more an authoritarian statement where China has no saying in.
He is praising the American democracy. But is America really a democratic country where the rule of the majority counts? Yes, you can vote for the next president every 4 years, but even to appear on the ballot in all States of America you need a lot of money. You need sponsors. Many sponsors donating small amounts would be ok, but large sponsors open the door for corruption because a favor should be answered by a favor in order to get a balance.
The war in Ukraine has not began on February 24 2022, but 8 years before on February 18 2014 with the Maidan Revolution. Does Kotkin acknowledge or at least consider that the CIA might have been involved in setting up this revolution ? What are Kotkin's thoughts about the CIA ? Does Kotkin believe there are neocons in the American politics ? It's a few days after the historic interview of Tucker Carlson interviewing Vladimir Putin. I would love to hear a reaction of Kotkin on this. Would he be trying to throw mud at Carlson like the mainstream media does and call Carlson a traitor, not being qualified to act as a journalist? Should Carlson be refused to enter the USA on his return ?
I would love to see a debate between Kotkin and Jeffrey Sachs discussing the following topics: war in Ukraine, corruption of the CIA, military industrial complex in the USA, degradation of the first amendment.
Agree with everything you said.
@@JM-vh7oc My comment is already over 2 month old and I re-read it to see what I wrote back then. Some things have changed, like the CIA has not officially acknowledged that it has over 10 'officices' in the Ukraine for already 12 years. What was the CIA doing there? It was already quite clear that the CIA was involved in the Maidan revolution in 2014 and Victoria Nuland had always played a significant role in Ukraine (remember the video where she was handing out cookies?). Is it coincidence that Nuland had been fired just after the hacked telephone conversations between German military people?
What I forgot to mention in my former comment is something about Robert F Kennedy Jr. I truly believe that he is not only the only hope for America, but also for the whole western world to come to our senses, to reverse the globalist agendas, to really give more power to the people, to introduce more referenda, just like in Switzerland. It's very exciting to follow the developments towards November 5; what is happening to Trump, will he be jailed? ; is Biden really not allowed on the ballot in certain states because of his weak physical and mental state? ; this could all benefit RFK - if he succeeds to come on ballot in all States. The mainstream media cannot ignore him anymore and people understand that he is not just a drug addict.
Great interview. Thank you for posting. Well worth the time to watch and to gain the knowledge that Stephen Kotkin readily shares.
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The most agreeable public intellectual alive