Turn: clearly FOLD! Why? b/c it's. multi-way! So: some of the outs might not be outs. (any diamond plus any Q = 12) There are 3 outs left ONLY! This _"FLOPPED THE WORLD"_ hand now becomes a *garbage hand* . . _Flop was a must call. Screaming call. (V must be on 2 pairs or a set!!). If missed turn and facing large bets, it's a fold._
I can't believe There is any confusion or complexity when both opponents hands are pinned as Bart contemplated. If the IP player is given a better flush draw and we know it will fold to a shove.. then very simply the extra 500 that the shove costs buys the IPs flush equity .. which is around 14%. Then it's just a matter of pot odds.. 14% of pot vs $500. Am I missing something?
There's good outcomes to jamming the flop, with the only hand having you crushed is A8D, slightly behind sets, flipping with and 2 pair holdings, and slightly ahead of 9x type hands with two cards to come. Sometimes you can drive out a 9x or higher flush draw out from the small blind with another raise. But as played, the big blind does seem nutted as live low limit poker goes. However, If you just call the flop you have to fold the turn with the given read that villain has a set.
With a huge amount of equity but no showdown value and non-nutted draws it's imperative we 3-bet flop to force out the small blind. If we had the nut flush draw or JT of another suit we could just call the flop check-raise as all our outs would be nutted.
@@karlinchina If you don't agree perhaps you could provide some analysis? Just to help, my two main points are (i) with high equity but no showdown we want to maximise fold equity and (ii) with nutted draws we don't mind multi-way allins but otherwise we need to get heads-up. I look forward to your explanation as to why these concepts are incorrect.
@@Mathemagical55 If we're lucky we're against 67 or A9. Against the entire range we have very little fold equity. We are well behind sets, NFDs, and 2 pair and they're not folding.
@@karlinchinaYou can't assume the villain only has thick value which he isn't folding and I'm playing my thick value (here 99/88) the same way. And we're not 'well behind' two pair - we're flipping.
Been in this spot a ton of times in 2019 and bricked every time. (Open ended straight flush draws) What my outcome was, first. Get the free turn card, always put the villan on top set when you have a straight flush draw. And against a set i instantly assume its 20% equity. Keep it cheap, lose less. Peel once, not twice. Here you could have peeled for free and paid for the river card, it would have been a lot cheaper.
IMO turn is a fold. We don't have the best hand, and we are certainly up against two pair+ and a draw. And I don't want to jam $930 with that equity. Also, what if the SB doesn't fold and has something like QK of diamonds ( a combo draw)? Loose players shove it in. Then you're just burning money.
I would jam with your thoughts as well hoping to drive out SB and keep my loose image intact. I find it amazing how players don't try amd get that loose image. I get paid every made hand basicly. If a draw misses or someone has any top pair. They know they basicly hace to close their eyes and call. I don't know how any mid to low stakes profit any real money playing some nit style. Just no way with high rake imo. A decent day for me is up 3 to 6 buyin. These nits get lucky to double up
Yeah I think you either need to 3bet the flop which i think is like break even since u already have some money in the pot obviously. Or if you’re not going to do that you just need to fold turn. You dont have the equity to push out the sb anymore. You made a choice to risk less early to see a cheaper turn and this is the downside for when that cheap turn doesn’t save you, you’re just handcuffed. Not to imply I wouldve played this hand correctly in the moment 😅
I’m raising the Flop. Unblocking top two with so much equity even against a set, I think the play is get money in on the flop, if raised you know that 9D is no longer an out. Might check fold a turn bet when Jc comes out. Haven’t seen river yet. I think we’re losing to 98s and with SPR of 1 and so many draws don’t think there is any fold equity to a pot sized jam. Probably getting out of the way on turn.
if hero re-raises flop, then villain in big blind could very likely shove. Re-raising flop also drives out any smaller flush draws or top pairs held by the SB. As bad as it seems, I am calling the small check raise on flop. Not sure if I'm calling or folding to the $400 turn bet ... but I'm definitely not raising the turn.
If your sure the sb has diamonds higher or lower and villain is not hyper aggressive then on turn it’s a fold I guess?? Because heros equity is lower due to card removal that should come in to your thought process at times in live poker
As crazy as it sound my istintive reaction was that this is one of the very very few times where folding the turn is actually the best option and i confirmed that after in depth math and esploitative analysis, i can't see a way out of that, but it made me think a lot and its a spot that im definitely gonna remember if i'll be in a similar spot somewhere down the line :)
I think it's a clear call on the turn. Assuming the SB is a good player, they'll usually 3-bet squeeze their suited aces + KQs vs. a CO open. Sure, once in a while, the SB shows up with Ax of diamonds, but unlike the BB, who has a polarized range (basically all the sets at a high frequency), the SB still has all the worse straight/flush draws in their range, in which case, you want to just call and keep them in the pot.
If you assume the SB has Ad3d and the BB has a set this is a fold on the turn and it is not even close! You only have 6 cards to win and you'd win ( assumption SB calls turn and folds river, BB goes/calls All-In on the river) $1855 in this case. With perfect play on your part (i.e. you'd fold a J or a d on the river) you' lose 400 on the other 36 cards. So you'd win 11130 and lose 14400 on the 42 cards which sums up to a loss of 3270 and divided by the 42 cards a loss of 78$. So a call is bad. A raise is worse: now you'd win 12 times $1855 and you'd lose 30 times $930 for a grand total of -$5640 or -134$ respectively. And that is with the assumption that Ad3d folds...
Personally, either fold to the check raise on the flop. Due to action killing cards coming on later streets & possibly fold out a better draw. I don't think you can get away after the flop.
I like the jam on the turn. With one card to go maybe the SB folds a better flush draw. I still think folding turn is better plan. Assuming SB has your outs.
If the SB has a better flush draw, that almost certainly means the BB has us in bad enough shape that we should fold rather than shovel money in with the BB.
I think this is one of those spots where you're probably supposed to fold the turn against a decent percentage of villains but actually doing it is another thing. If we're against a LAG shoving is probably the play because he can have draw hands that are actually behind us. But against tight villains the turn is really ugly and needs to be folded.
Given how strong BB range is in this hand and hero can't be sure about having the best flushdraw because the SB could easily have hands like KQdiamonds and A9diamonds i would fold this hand on the turn without much effort at all.
folding turn a lot here. I just think too many small steaks players playing fast like that (check raise, big lead) just feels like a made hand that I need to out draw. Add in sb that either has my outs or might have me beat as well. I certainly don't jam here.
This is not that complicated, if you can ACTUALLY slot in 2pair + for the SB and slot in most of the diamond draws for the Button, it's a very clear fold. Now, can you actually assign those ranges? That's a different question. The only reason why it looks like a call or a raise is because there's so much equity to improve - any J, T, Q, 7, and diamond improve your hand. But the question is, what cards actually improve your hand against your opponent's range? Imagine if the turn comes another 2... you'd immediately think about how much you'd be dead to. Same idea.
He has the 4th nut flush draw. Likely the other player has a set or 2 pair. From my experience when you have a situation like this around 2/3rds of the time the 3rd person has the FD. So we are drawing to 7 FD outs 66% of the time and 9 FD outs 33% of the time. Really we have 7.5 FD outs on average. NOW since we have the 4th NFD it means you have 76dd, 65dd, 54dd, 75dd, 64dd, 53dd? or 6 combos of FDs below you and Axdd = 10, KQdd, AQdd, Q9dd = 3 or 13 combos above you. You are basically drawing dead here to a 6 outer often. This is where I would have paid attention to behavior, tells, and timing to determine what the SB had. If we could pick up that the SB had a hand like AsTc then it's a call if the odds are right. But deduct .5% for the chance he holds a diamond. I'd say this is a fold here in this situation without reads.
You also forgot all the non diamond suited connected hands in SBs range. Specifically, 2 combos of J10 and 3 combos of 67. Depending how loose the SB is calling the CO’s open, we may be able to throw in some of the off suit combos at a lower frequency. More importantly, I think most players in the SB’s spot would 4 bet all in their A high flush draws + Q9d on the flop, especially multiway, so I think we can rule those out. Imo the correct play is call turn, hope the SB calls, and re-evaluate on river.
Reminds me of a hand where I flopped top pair (A) and nut flush draw, against a set, and another ace who had me outkicked. Due to one of them being drunk and acting out of turn on the flop, the non-drunk's hand being a set became clear. Basically, drunk shoved out of turn and I shoved over top, before first to act set had acted. So when the set wanted to instead act in turn, the shoves got pulled back, the set bet, the drunk, who insisted the whole time he was shoving regardless, shoved. Best I could figure at the table, folding and shoving, were about mathematically the same as folding for me, but I thought I had a bit of fold equity if the set was bottom set, because my shoving would also represent a set. Plus, there was a chance I had the drunk outkicked and dominated, or he could have a lower flush draw and I had him extremely dominated.... with either of those possibilities making even a small chance of folding the set out, very valuable. And if by chance the drunk also had a set, the chance of them redrawing against me if I hit my flush, got even worse. So I shoved the $800ish instead of folding. Bottom set called, and it bricked out. One thing to note, is that if after the shoves were made, if the set had checked, the shoves would have been forced to still shove. Only because the set wanted to choose a bet amount and act in turn, were the shoves pulled back. So part of my reasoning in shoving again when given the option to fold, shove, or call, was because obviously the set guy didn't want to be all in on the flop, or he would have just called our shoves. So there was some chance it wasn't a set, or that he would bet/fold his set, for instance after getting a read that if we both still shoved after his bet, then one of us must also have a set....so maybe he bet because of having bottom set, and was willing to bet/fold it. Or he was just clueless that check/calling our shoves was smarter if he wanted the money in. When I got home, I ran the numbers with the actual hands. It turned out my shove was 29% of the total pot, and I had 30.5% equity. So it was +EV by $46 compared to folding. Yet, I would lose 69.5% of the time. I felt vindicated as skilled at reading the situation, skilled at doing the math, and skilled at not playing scared. But it sucked being out $800 of green cash, versus being out $46 of EV. There are times to just get out of the way, EV be damned, just to make a huge reduction in variance for a small reduction in EV. One or two or three times per year, giving up $50 of EV in order to reduce variance and hence bankroll requirement, is not a bad thing. "Buying insurance" sounds weak, but situations like this are no different from why card counters at blackjack don't generally flip between just min bet and max bet, but ramp up the bets more and more as the count gets more and more positive. It lets them play higher stakes, with lower risk of ruin to their bankroll.
You have 32% on the turn v a set. You need 29.5% to call. You are getting direct odds to call in position. On the river it should be pretty damned easy to get the rest in on a brick.
The only thing that changes is you might have one or two more outs against the SB if he has a bigger flush draw. However, I don't know anyone who is not seeing a river with an OESFD
I think it’s just a fold on the turn. You’re definitely beat and your flush draw might not even be good. So probably only 6 clean outs on the river. And even if your diamonds are good you’re not getting the right odds to call.
I had a hand very close to this recently same flop except I had 9 10 spades at 1/2 and faced a raise of 20 jammed another 100 on top and the turn hit a queen. villain had J 10 I had no regrets would not have done anything differently
Range isn't just 2 pair+. There is over 300$ in the pot and you should try to take it down with a great draw. You get some folds here if you play aggressively. Sometimes players raise with something like top pair "to see where they're at" 😅. Opponents could also have flush draws and their draws are propably higher. You want to get them to fold their draws.
_unfoldable_ at the first sight. Second sight would reveal tonnes of folding reasons (multiway/counterouts - facing higher drawing hand). So: fundamental poker (no pot odds) said: fold.
@@EllieBanks333 exactly so. Even if H was holding nut flush drawing hand, (which he did not) and other V had lower drawing flush, that reduces number of outs by 2 (2 diamonds held by other V). Then, all 4 Qs are not H out for straight. SB might be holding KJd. So: it's not open ender! So: totally unexpected conclusion: Fold the nut flush drawing hand! (?). Sb smartly did! . Yeah, this is just "one of those hands". Which was a good selection to bring it in.
In this kinda spot I'd check flop..ie take the free card. If miss and over card I'd fire ..or if hit also fire ofc. As played, On turn I think I fold...with only 400 ish behind if call turn, committed and could be drawing dead basically. You're assuming the shove will fold out the other guy..which it did this time..but surely there'd be a % of times the nut flush draw for eg calls..considering low stakes / loose player , as described.
It's a tricky hand, 4way and deep. This check back on flop is the unintuitive play and easy to overlook, but it's probably correct. In these live games where people play Q6s type of stuff and don't sqz A2-5s, we could be dominated by other flush draws and only have 6 outs.
@@EllieBanks333 - "Flopped the world" (that can buy you nothing! Never heard of such a world). Take a look at the hand outcome. - $150 raise is not small. It's just right. You (set/2pairs) don't want to force weaker hands out. It's a good bet to deny pot odds, too.
Bart's math is wrong here. On the flop vs a set, you are not 60-40. You are 40-60. And when a blank comes on the turn, your equity does not go down by more than half. In fact, it goes to about 30-70 because if you hit on the river, you cannot get re-sucked out on like you can if you hit your draw on the turn (ie hit flush on turn and Villain hits full house on river).
I think Bart just said it backwards. I'm sure he's aware the set is favored. Your mistake is calculating the equity as if it was heads up, but it's 3 handed. Now you may have assumed that the 2nd villain folds out. Which he did/does, because of hero's ill advised jam.
@@jackcooke2327 I think he's saying that if you re-raise flop then BB will jam and you can call with 15 outs. The SB will likely stick around with Axd which would suck, but wygd?
Let me know if you think folding turn is the right play and would you ever have found the fold in game?
Heads up its such an easy call, call on Q/8/diamond rivers, fold when we miss.... Multiway I think we have to fold
I think it only seems questionable because our hand looks so pretty. The turn is a fold, but one that few players are actually capable of making.
Turn: clearly FOLD!
Why? b/c it's. multi-way! So: some of the outs might not be outs. (any diamond plus any Q = 12) There are 3 outs left ONLY! This _"FLOPPED THE WORLD"_ hand now becomes a *garbage hand* .
.
_Flop was a must call. Screaming call. (V must be on 2 pairs or a set!!). If missed turn and facing large bets, it's a fold._
I can't believe There is any confusion or complexity when both opponents hands are pinned as Bart contemplated.
If the IP player is given a better flush draw and we know it will fold to a shove.. then very simply the extra 500 that the shove costs buys the IPs flush equity .. which is around 14%.
Then it's just a matter of pot odds.. 14% of pot vs $500. Am I missing something?
@@balbirchahal1890 who is the "IP Player"?
I’m folding the turn 3 handed, if feels bad but live poker sometimes you know you should bail and fold in tricky spots like this.
There's good outcomes to jamming the flop, with the only hand having you crushed is A8D, slightly behind sets, flipping with and 2 pair holdings, and slightly ahead of 9x type hands with two cards to come. Sometimes you can drive out a 9x or higher flush draw out from the small blind with another raise. But as played, the big blind does seem nutted as live low limit poker goes.
However, If you just call the flop you have to fold the turn with the given read that villain has a set.
These videos are like advertisements for Euros to come and ruin our games.
Americans make too much money, and inequality of income means millions more people can afford to jam into the nuts on the turn.
I do hate it when there are young euros at my table
So true 😂
You need to welcome your euro overlords
I once literally had a Euro tell me he was headed to Jacksonville because Bart said it’s the best game in North America.
With a huge amount of equity but no showdown value and non-nutted draws it's imperative we 3-bet flop to force out the small blind. If we had the nut flush draw or JT of another suit we could just call the flop check-raise as all our outs would be nutted.
I've always said "anytime you think you're behind; jam!"
Hey where do you play? And about what time of day?
@@karlinchina If you don't agree perhaps you could provide some analysis? Just to help, my two main points are (i) with high equity but no showdown we want to maximise fold equity and (ii) with nutted draws we don't mind multi-way allins but otherwise we need to get heads-up. I look forward to your explanation as to why these concepts are incorrect.
@@Mathemagical55 If we're lucky we're against 67 or A9. Against the entire range we have very little fold equity. We are well behind sets, NFDs, and 2 pair and they're not folding.
@@karlinchinaYou can't assume the villain only has thick value which he isn't folding and I'm playing my thick value (here 99/88) the same way. And we're not 'well behind' two pair - we're flipping.
i think the only decisions you can make here that aren’t bad are 3betting the flop or folding turn.
Been in this spot a ton of times in 2019 and bricked every time. (Open ended straight flush draws)
What my outcome was, first.
Get the free turn card, always put the villan on top set when you have a straight flush draw. And against a set i instantly assume its 20% equity.
Keep it cheap, lose less. Peel once, not twice.
Here you could have peeled for free and paid for the river card, it would have been a lot cheaper.
IMO turn is a fold. We don't have the best hand, and we are certainly up against two pair+ and a draw. And I don't want to jam $930 with that equity. Also, what if the SB doesn't fold and has something like QK of diamonds ( a combo draw)? Loose players shove it in. Then you're just burning money.
I would jam with your thoughts as well hoping to drive out SB and keep my loose image intact. I find it amazing how players don't try amd get that loose image. I get paid every made hand basicly. If a draw misses or someone has any top pair. They know they basicly hace to close their eyes and call. I don't know how any mid to low stakes profit any real money playing some nit style. Just no way with high rake imo. A decent day for me is up 3 to 6 buyin. These nits get lucky to double up
had this kinds hand yesterday K`10 ss CO. r 9 two calls flop qs jd 4s i got ck raised to 42, i called t 8d bet 55.00 i called r 10h ck ck he shows q t
Yeah I think you either need to 3bet the flop which i think is like break even since u already have some money in the pot obviously. Or if you’re not going to do that you just need to fold turn. You dont have the equity to push out the sb anymore. You made a choice to risk less early to see a cheaper turn and this is the downside for when that cheap turn doesn’t save you, you’re just handcuffed.
Not to imply I wouldve played this hand correctly in the moment 😅
I'm really surprised you didn't discuss folding the turn. It feels like a fold
I’m raising the Flop. Unblocking top two with so much equity even against a set, I think the play is get money in on the flop, if raised you know that 9D is no longer an out. Might check fold a turn bet when Jc comes out. Haven’t seen river yet. I think we’re losing to 98s and with SPR of 1 and so many draws don’t think there is any fold equity to a pot sized jam. Probably getting out of the way on turn.
If deeper I would consider barreling with the 10 nut blocker.
if hero re-raises flop, then villain in big blind could very likely shove. Re-raising flop also drives out any smaller flush draws or top pairs held by the SB.
As bad as it seems, I am calling the small check raise on flop.
Not sure if I'm calling or folding to the $400 turn bet ... but I'm definitely not raising the turn.
I like checking the flop out of position multiway.
This is the way
We aren't out of position....
If your sure the sb has diamonds higher or lower and villain is not hyper aggressive then on turn it’s a fold I guess?? Because heros equity is lower due to card removal that should come in to your thought process at times in live poker
As crazy as it sound my istintive reaction was that this is one of the very very few times where folding the turn is actually the best option and i confirmed that after in depth math and esploitative analysis, i can't see a way out of that, but it made me think a lot and its a spot that im definitely gonna remember if i'll be in a similar spot somewhere down the line :)
I think it's a clear call on the turn. Assuming the SB is a good player, they'll usually 3-bet squeeze their suited aces + KQs vs. a CO open. Sure, once in a while, the SB shows up with Ax of diamonds, but unlike the BB, who has a polarized range (basically all the sets at a high frequency), the SB still has all the worse straight/flush draws in their range, in which case, you want to just call and keep them in the pot.
If you assume the SB has Ad3d and the BB has a set this is a fold on the turn and it is not even close! You only have 6 cards to win and you'd win ( assumption SB calls turn and folds river, BB goes/calls All-In on the river) $1855 in this case. With perfect play on your part (i.e. you'd fold a J or a d on the river) you' lose 400 on the other 36 cards. So you'd win 11130 and lose 14400 on the 42 cards which sums up to a loss of 3270 and divided by the 42 cards a loss of 78$. So a call is bad. A raise is worse: now you'd win 12 times $1855 and you'd lose 30 times $930 for a grand total of -$5640 or -134$ respectively. And that is with the assumption that Ad3d folds...
Personally, either fold to the check raise on the flop. Due to action killing cards coming on later streets & possibly fold out a better draw. I don't think you can get away after the flop.
I like the jam on the turn. With one card to go maybe the SB folds a better flush draw. I still think folding turn is better plan. Assuming SB has your outs.
If the SB has a better flush draw, that almost certainly means the BB has us in bad enough shape that we should fold rather than shovel money in with the BB.
I think this is one of those spots where you're probably supposed to fold the turn against a decent percentage of villains but actually doing it is another thing. If we're against a LAG shoving is probably the play because he can have draw hands that are actually behind us. But against tight villains the turn is really ugly and needs to be folded.
Given how strong BB range is in this hand and hero can't be sure about having the best flushdraw because the SB could easily have hands like KQdiamonds and A9diamonds i would fold this hand on the turn without much effort at all.
folding turn a lot here. I just think too many small steaks players playing fast like that (check raise, big lead) just feels like a made hand that I need to out draw. Add in sb that either has my outs or might have me beat as well. I certainly don't jam here.
This is not that complicated, if you can ACTUALLY slot in 2pair + for the SB and slot in most of the diamond draws for the Button, it's a very clear fold. Now, can you actually assign those ranges? That's a different question.
The only reason why it looks like a call or a raise is because there's so much equity to improve - any J, T, Q, 7, and diamond improve your hand. But the question is, what cards actually improve your hand against your opponent's range? Imagine if the turn comes another 2... you'd immediately think about how much you'd be dead to. Same idea.
Re raise flop. I beg you
He has the 4th nut flush draw. Likely the other player has a set or 2 pair. From my experience when you have a situation like this around 2/3rds of the time the 3rd person has the FD.
So we are drawing to 7 FD outs 66% of the time and 9 FD outs 33% of the time. Really we have 7.5 FD outs on average. NOW since we have the 4th NFD it means you have 76dd, 65dd, 54dd, 75dd, 64dd, 53dd? or 6 combos of FDs below you and Axdd = 10, KQdd, AQdd, Q9dd = 3 or 13 combos above you. You are basically drawing dead here to a 6 outer often.
This is where I would have paid attention to behavior, tells, and timing to determine what the SB had. If we could pick up that the SB had a hand like AsTc then it's a call if the odds are right. But deduct .5% for the chance he holds a diamond.
I'd say this is a fold here in this situation without reads.
Not sure you've factored in that he has straight outs
You also forgot all the non diamond suited connected hands in SBs range. Specifically, 2 combos of J10 and 3 combos of 67. Depending how loose the SB is calling the CO’s open, we may be able to throw in some of the off suit combos at a lower frequency. More importantly, I think most players in the SB’s spot would 4 bet all in their A high flush draws + Q9d on the flop, especially multiway, so I think we can rule those out. Imo the correct play is call turn, hope the SB calls, and re-evaluate on river.
Why not re raise flop??
If you are sure you are far behind, how about just fold?
Jamming the turn is the last thing I would do knowing I’m behind and still on a draw. I think calling the turn and folding river is fine.
Reminds me of a hand where I flopped top pair (A) and nut flush draw, against a set, and another ace who had me outkicked. Due to one of them being drunk and acting out of turn on the flop, the non-drunk's hand being a set became clear. Basically, drunk shoved out of turn and I shoved over top, before first to act set had acted. So when the set wanted to instead act in turn, the shoves got pulled back, the set bet, the drunk, who insisted the whole time he was shoving regardless, shoved. Best I could figure at the table, folding and shoving, were about mathematically the same as folding for me, but I thought I had a bit of fold equity if the set was bottom set, because my shoving would also represent a set. Plus, there was a chance I had the drunk outkicked and dominated, or he could have a lower flush draw and I had him extremely dominated.... with either of those possibilities making even a small chance of folding the set out, very valuable. And if by chance the drunk also had a set, the chance of them redrawing against me if I hit my flush, got even worse. So I shoved the $800ish instead of folding. Bottom set called, and it bricked out.
One thing to note, is that if after the shoves were made, if the set had checked, the shoves would have been forced to still shove. Only because the set wanted to choose a bet amount and act in turn, were the shoves pulled back. So part of my reasoning in shoving again when given the option to fold, shove, or call, was because obviously the set guy didn't want to be all in on the flop, or he would have just called our shoves. So there was some chance it wasn't a set, or that he would bet/fold his set, for instance after getting a read that if we both still shoved after his bet, then one of us must also have a set....so maybe he bet because of having bottom set, and was willing to bet/fold it. Or he was just clueless that check/calling our shoves was smarter if he wanted the money in.
When I got home, I ran the numbers with the actual hands. It turned out my shove was 29% of the total pot, and I had 30.5% equity. So it was +EV by $46 compared to folding. Yet, I would lose 69.5% of the time. I felt vindicated as skilled at reading the situation, skilled at doing the math, and skilled at not playing scared. But it sucked being out $800 of green cash, versus being out $46 of EV.
There are times to just get out of the way, EV be damned, just to make a huge reduction in variance for a small reduction in EV. One or two or three times per year, giving up $50 of EV in order to reduce variance and hence bankroll requirement, is not a bad thing. "Buying insurance" sounds weak, but situations like this are no different from why card counters at blackjack don't generally flip between just min bet and max bet, but ramp up the bets more and more as the count gets more and more positive. It lets them play higher stakes, with lower risk of ruin to their bankroll.
You have 32% on the turn v a set. You need 29.5% to call. You are getting direct odds to call in position. On the river it should be pretty damned easy to get the rest in on a brick.
You don't see Bart in the mental blender this much very often
It seems to be a fold on the turn if you know that you are vs a set and a higher fd
It's only a pair of jacks with one card to go. 900 odds left in the stack barely committed, straight forward fold imo.
Is turn still a fold if flop was 9 of diamond (instead of heart) making it a straight flush draw?
The only thing that changes is you might have one or two more outs against the SB if he has a bigger flush draw. However, I don't know anyone who is not seeing a river with an OESFD
I think it’s just a fold on the turn. You’re definitely beat and your flush draw might not even be good. So probably only 6 clean outs on the river. And even if your diamonds are good you’re not getting the right odds to call.
I had a hand very close to this recently same flop except I had 9 10 spades at 1/2 and faced a raise of 20 jammed another 100 on top and the turn hit a queen. villain had J 10 I had no regrets would not have done anything differently
I was leaning fold on turn. Nit gonna nit
Rohnert Park California
The J on the turn just makes me want to snap fold.
100% 3 bet on the flop, absolute no brainer.
Yeah 3-betting into a 2 pair+ range that is very clever.
🤣🤣🤣🤣
Range isn't just 2 pair+. There is over 300$ in the pot and you should try to take it down with a great draw. You get some folds here if you play aggressively. Sometimes players raise with something like top pair "to see where they're at" 😅. Opponents could also have flush draws and their draws are propably higher. You want to get them to fold their draws.
Video title should be "Impossible to fold". This hand is bound to be highly controversial because hero's hand looks unfoldable.
_unfoldable_ at the first sight. Second sight would reveal tonnes of folding reasons (multiway/counterouts - facing higher drawing hand). So: fundamental poker (no pot odds) said: fold.
@@pot_kivach160 I agree. I'd fold the turn here.
@@EllieBanks333 exactly so.
Even if H was holding nut flush drawing hand, (which he did not) and other V had lower drawing flush, that reduces number of outs by 2 (2 diamonds held by other V).
Then, all 4 Qs are not H out for straight. SB might be holding KJd. So: it's not open ender!
So: totally unexpected conclusion: Fold the nut flush drawing hand! (?). Sb smartly did!
.
Yeah, this is just "one of those hands". Which was a good selection to bring it in.
In this kinda spot I'd check flop..ie take the free card. If miss and over card I'd fire ..or if hit also fire ofc.
As played, On turn I think I fold...with only 400 ish behind if call turn, committed and could be drawing dead basically.
You're assuming the shove will fold out the other guy..which it did this time..but surely there'd be a % of times the nut flush draw for eg calls..considering low stakes / loose player , as described.
It's a tricky hand, 4way and deep.
This check back on flop is the unintuitive play and easy to overlook, but it's probably correct. In these live games where people play Q6s type of stuff and don't sqz A2-5s, we could be dominated by other flush draws and only have 6 outs.
At the $400 bet. I'm folding.
The discussion on the flop here is absolutely nonsensical.
Why is that?
@@EllieBanks333 Commenters are advocating jamming flop where we get snapped off by tons of hands that have us crushed.
@@EllieBanks333
- "Flopped the world" (that can buy you nothing! Never heard of such a world). Take a look at the hand outcome.
- $150 raise is not small. It's just right. You (set/2pairs) don't want to force weaker hands out. It's a good bet to deny pot odds, too.
Bart's math is wrong here. On the flop vs a set, you are not 60-40. You are 40-60. And when a blank comes on the turn, your equity does not go down by more than half. In fact, it goes to about 30-70 because if you hit on the river, you cannot get re-sucked out on like you can if you hit your draw on the turn (ie hit flush on turn and Villain hits full house on river).
Bingo
I think Bart just said it backwards. I'm sure he's aware the set is favored. Your mistake is calculating the equity as if it was heads up, but it's 3 handed. Now you may have assumed that the 2nd villain folds out. Which he did/does, because of hero's ill advised jam.
Small stakes are value games. This isnt a profitable spot. Just fold the turn.
What a messy call in with lots of wrong information/math.
Have to raise when you’re 60/40 favorite against any possible hand on the flop
You're not a 60/40 favorite against almost any hand that's raising against you, you're flipping at best and usually behind.
@@jackcooke2327 I think he's saying that if you re-raise flop then BB will jam and you can call with 15 outs. The SB will likely stick around with Axd which would suck, but wygd?
You are uncommitted