The Exponential Price Values of Top Tier Players

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  • Опубликовано: 3 янв 2025

Комментарии • 139

  • @Dufex_of_Life
    @Dufex_of_Life 2 месяца назад +27

    That's because you're trying to use playing performance as a predictor/gauge for collector value which comes down to emotions/popularity and not directly tied to on field characteristics - especially for Tier 1 players who's narratives and stories carry well beyond stats over time

    • @josephm8078
      @josephm8078 2 месяца назад +2

      Was thinking similarly about banks. Mr Cub is a pretty iconic nickname.

    • @tommayrant2279
      @tommayrant2279 2 месяца назад +3

      Bo Jackson goes beyond stats.

  • @masonrahal6980
    @masonrahal6980 2 месяца назад +13

    Fantastic and well delivered analysis.

  • @kleesman
    @kleesman 2 месяца назад +8

    Instead of the relative size of WAR, I think a better comparison would be percentile. If one player is at the 99.9th percentile of WAR and the other is at the 99th percentile. Then you could make the argument that player is 10x rarer. I think this comparison would get you closer to the difference in card values.
    Thanks for the consistently great content.

  • @alexdestefano392
    @alexdestefano392 2 месяца назад +3

    Yeah, the problem with the method to assess value is assuming demand is pegged to the war multiplier. I feel like there are 50-100x more Lebron collectors vs Bosh collectors, hence the huge disparity in price. Supply is the same for both players in this example, but the demand for lebron is essentially 50-100 times that of Bosh. In other words everyone is trying to collect Lebron, and very few are collecting Bosh.

  • @tommayrant2279
    @tommayrant2279 2 месяца назад +14

    Joe Morgan, with 100.6 WAR, seems to be undervalued. He and Seaver are the two 100+ WAR players with 1960s rookie cards.

    • @SantiagosFakeBeard
      @SantiagosFakeBeard 2 месяца назад +3

      Yeah but who was a Joe Morgan fan when you had all the other greats. It’s like being a Harold Bains fan. 😂

    • @mattsbaseballcardbreaks5952
      @mattsbaseballcardbreaks5952 2 месяца назад +2

      ​@@SantiagosFakeBeardLol

    • @tommayrant2279
      @tommayrant2279 2 месяца назад +5

      ​@@SantiagosFakeBeardJoe Morgan: 10x AS, 5 straight GGs, only back-to-back MVP winner at 2B, one of two 1st ballot HOFers to primarily play 2B (Jackie Robinson), 2x WS winner with Big Red Machine, one of 2 players with 250 HR & 600 SB (Henderson), 2nd all-time in games played at 2B, all-time NL leader in put outs at 2B. His rookie card with Sonny Jackson is the first Topps rookie card to only feature African Americans.

    • @user-hm5zb1qn6g
      @user-hm5zb1qn6g 2 месяца назад

      @@SantiagosFakeBeard You don't know baseball, my friend.

  • @roycehuffman399
    @roycehuffman399 Месяц назад +1

    I would like to see this analysis done for the second year cards of the baseball players. All three chosen players have a first series Topps card in their second year, making for a fair comparison.
    Clemente 1956 Topps #33
    Banks 1955 Topps #28
    Aparicio 1957 Topps #7
    Not knowing how current market value was calculated, I did my best, using these values for a PSA 5 of each card.
    Clemente $500
    Banks $250
    Aparicio $50
    The multipliers are about half what they are for the RCs.
    Aparicio to Banks: about 5x vs 9x (4:06)
    Aparicio to Clemente: about 10x vs 15x to 20x (4:12)

  • @robinrahmani4705
    @robinrahmani4705 2 месяца назад +2

    So good. Thank you. Great video. IMO, these results confirm what I and many others have always believed: DEMAND is the primary factor in FMV. The demand among collectors for owning a Clemente or Lebron card is much higher than collectors who want a Bosh or Wade rookie, thus driving up valuation of the tier one players

  • @ASMRPeople
    @ASMRPeople 2 месяца назад +3

    It would be sort of fun to have all hof topps baseball rookies from 1952 to 1980 in a variety of grades on a spreadsheet with war of course. You could make a trend equation & see how the r^2 value changes with grade and year. You could see if the year of the card is linear or exponential. Certainly issues like 1871 & series would weaken the correlation

  • @scarpfish
    @scarpfish 2 месяца назад +5

    Some players have a lore about them that transcends their statistics or even their championships. Clemente certainly is an example of this.
    A more modern example would be comparing Kobe Bryant with Tim Duncan. Both started roughly the same time. Both won five championships. Both are in the hall of fame, but the difference in card prices is astounding, and I think that would still apply even without Bryant's untimely passing.

    • @spic0li
      @spic0li 2 месяца назад

      100% agree when he used Clemente as an example against the other two. He was an international hero beyond baseball combined with untimely death.

  • @CletusMoon
    @CletusMoon 2 месяца назад +1

    Love this type of breakdown! I'd be interested in using some of these metrics for younger prospective type players to see how much "hype" drives value.

  • @thesecretagentman
    @thesecretagentman 2 месяца назад +2

    Good video, Chris. Gold, silver, bronze. Always bet on the fastest horse in the race, or in this case, the most popular horse in the race.

  • @scottvaughn9
    @scottvaughn9 2 месяца назад +1

    Love these thought experiments, Chris - great video! I think another fun one for your Research Dept would be comparing & quantifying the popularity or “x-factor” for players who are statistically similar but with drastic card value differences. The 2 case studies that come to mind are Mays vs. Mantle & Duncan vs. Kobe.

  • @HighSpeedCardChase50
    @HighSpeedCardChase50 Месяц назад +1

    Great video! I love analytical breakdowns like this!

  • @karlcicitto3095
    @karlcicitto3095 Месяц назад +1

    I’d like to see an analysis that reverses the process by starting with the card values and connects them to metrics and awards. See how card prices correlate to an index of WAR, black ink, grey no, jaws, hit and pitch milestones, WS teams played on.

  • @EricCKeys
    @EricCKeys 2 месяца назад +2

    Love the data used to support the argument rather than just shouting into the wind about your favorite player being undervalue or hating on a player you dont like. Stats and data isnt perfect but they help tell a story.

  • @cashadder
    @cashadder 2 месяца назад +2

    Sewalls value also increases exponentially with every passing year

  • @CardCollectingDuo
    @CardCollectingDuo 2 месяца назад +1

    I love this kind of stuff. Keep making these types of videos Chris!

  • @CardAlchemy
    @CardAlchemy 2 месяца назад +1

    Great topic. Card values are definitely an inexact science… but I think you’re onto something. Perhaps there are more variables to factor in, but there should be a formula for pricing. Currently most of us buy and sell based on the last few comps. I think we need to ask ourselves if those comps are proper representations of that player’s career and other card variables such as POP/Rarity, etc. Good stuff. 🙌🏻

  • @Cape_Cod_Collector
    @Cape_Cod_Collector 2 месяца назад +1

    Great video Chris. The same can be seen in Equities..whereby big “household names” like coca-cola, NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, etc. have stock values that exceed what they should “on paper”

  • @apackperday
    @apackperday Месяц назад +1

    Really interesting analysis Chris. Thanks for the video.

  • @jpcards
    @jpcards 2 месяца назад +2

    Great dive into this, Chris. Nice to have the data. Thanks for sharing.

  • @ACD1994
    @ACD1994 2 месяца назад +1

    Interesting experiment. I agree... Aparicio seems like, a decent buy for the price point I think, he's not Clemente or Banks but, still a baseball hall of famer, as you said.

  • @davelachey8118
    @davelachey8118 2 месяца назад +1

    Great analysis Chris and something I think about all the time.

  • @sharpenedaxe2
    @sharpenedaxe2 2 месяца назад +1

    One factor to take into note is that the Clemente is a high number! Great video as always Chris

  • @trollerskater
    @trollerskater 2 месяца назад +1

    Very similar to what you see in other collectibles such as art and wine. Small increments in quality at high levels translate to exponentially higher prices

  • @theboringchannel2027
    @theboringchannel2027 2 месяца назад +2

    Team/Media market has a large effect on popularity of a HOF player
    and thus their card value.

  • @jpbrabant7022
    @jpbrabant7022 2 месяца назад +1

    Looks like an exponential regression line could determined using WAR (or something else) and the actual multipliers to then find a scale factor increase between the two exponential graphs. This scale factor could be compared to other players/sports/etc. Other factors in play of course, but interesting to see :)

  • @chrisolivo6591
    @chrisolivo6591 2 месяца назад +2

    I mentioned this before on other RUclipsr’s comment sections. Most people who watch sports, don’t know these players in and out. Whether it’s modern or vintage, they don’t watch sports that way. They are casual sports fans so the GOATS are the names that stick out and it drives up the price.
    DWade was a beast in his prime, but he is a player that will be underrated to the next generation that didn’t see him play. The GOATS are the players that sort of stay in pop culture after they retire.
    You look at rookie cards of Tony Gwynn, Tim Duncan, Steve Carlton, Peyton Manning, and they are undervalued in this hobby. These are great HOF players but they sort of get forgotten once they retire while Kobe, Lebron, Jordan, Gretzky, and Mantle cards are super expensive. It’s part generational and part casual fans that create this price divide between the HOF Goats and the HOF Great players. How many people still talking about Duncan? How many people still talk about Kobe? Both have 5 rings, yet Kobe rookies are 5X more expensive.

    • @collectorinvestordealer
      @collectorinvestordealer  2 месяца назад +1

      Very well stated

    • @Fujibayashi85
      @Fujibayashi85 2 месяца назад +1

      Yeah that's entirely the case. Very well put. It's an interesting side that I tend to forget myself. As a huge fan and watcher of 5 major sports, it's shocking how many people get overlooked, in terms of value especially. It's pretty neat though if you enjoy collecting certain people a lot!

  • @NyckulasLowe
    @NyckulasLowe 2 месяца назад +1

    Love this video! Great job, Chris!

  • @jevi4767
    @jevi4767 2 месяца назад +2

    Great video. Tier one HOFers are difficult for me to figure out. I don’t understand Frank Robinson’s exclusion from this tier. His rookie should be unaffordable, but it isn’t. Over 100 WAR; Triple Crown; 2 MVPs; a WS MVP. He even one manager of the year once after his playing days were over. How is he excluded with the top tier names in the collecting hobby?

  • @MrManosOfficial
    @MrManosOfficial 2 месяца назад +1

    Card Master 😎

  • @joelmayer4055
    @joelmayer4055 2 месяца назад +1

    First of all I want to point out that I very much respect your knowledge and I also respect WAR as a stat. I do disagree that there SHOULD BE a roughly linear correlation between WAR and Card values. While there is and should be a loose correlation (HOF players should be better than bad players) parsing HOF players and stacking them by WAR (which is a legit thing to do) and then comparing their card values isn't necessarily a sound way to do it.
    Your choices of Banks and Clemente is an interesting one. Both are incredibly popular players and very popular among collectors. But collectors often consider things other than WAR in what they collect, and, by extension, what they're willing to pay for. In fact, many collectors also value things that the player did OUTSIDE of playing baseball. While Banks is certainly very popular, especially among Cubs fans, Clemente was also among not just the early African-American stars but he was also probably the first that also had a Latin American heritage. Put on top of that his humanitarian work I would put him second only to Jackie Robinson when it comes to how he is viewed for things he did OFF the field. Put on top of that Clemente didn't "retire" but, instead, died in a tragic plane crash I think also affects his value.
    I realize I might be simply picking on the example rather than addressing your main point as I see it: That card values don't necessarily mirror player performance. But I would argue that maybe they are not meant to. Some players popularity among collectors outshines their skills. Collectors collect for lots of reasons. Maybe this analysis will lead to people finding undervalued cards for outstanding players. But it is as likely to lead to people buying cards that they really like but are disappointed haven't increased in value concurrent with their relative skill. As many have noted some players and cards are worth more than others. We might say, "Player X was almost as good as Player Y so their cards should have similar value." But the fact is that they don't. And possibly (probably?) never will.

  • @Rawstock92
    @Rawstock92 2 месяца назад +1

    Great point, definitely true … there are also so many external factors, like the market and team, championships, celebrity, and notoriety. Clemente is deeply mourned and considered a tragic loss, not only as a player but humanitarian. LeBron has been a national celebrity since he was sixteen, thrived in arguably the peak of the cable and big network era, and has built a “brand” of his life like none other (even Michael Jordan didn’t get his kids on his roster!) - a comp on the 86 Fleer Jordan, Hakeem, and Barkley would be interesting; maybe look at all the HOF rookies in that unique set, given the number of actual draft classes represented in the “rookies” of that set. Awesome discussion point.

    • @rlsfrny
      @rlsfrny 2 месяца назад

      Hakeem and Barkley are in the same tier. 3rd tier would be Drexler, maybe Isiah, Dominique.

  • @michaelgolden4938
    @michaelgolden4938 2 месяца назад +1

    Fascinating video, love these analytical deep dives

    • @michaelgolden4938
      @michaelgolden4938 2 месяца назад +1

      What's your explanation for this phenomenon, Chris? Just demand, demand, demand? That the hobby demands these top-tier players that much more than the next tiers down? Or...?

    • @collectorinvestordealer
      @collectorinvestordealer  2 месяца назад +2

      Yeah I think demand is the key. For every person who wants a Chris Bosh RC, there are 100 people who want a LeBron James RC. Hence the 100x price difference.

    • @michaelgolden4938
      @michaelgolden4938 2 месяца назад +1

      Yeah, this hits right ;)

  • @topps85401
    @topps85401 2 месяца назад +2

    This is fun for conversation purposes only, the exponential value discrepancy is clearly no surprise

  • @unamazon6107
    @unamazon6107 2 месяца назад +3

    Only Chris could make math fun!!!!

  • @rookiecards4me258
    @rookiecards4me258 2 месяца назад +1

    Great video Chris! Thanks!

  • @ilovebaseballcards9334
    @ilovebaseballcards9334 2 месяца назад +2

    It’s like Nolan Ryan
    I actually don’t think his WAR would be higher than Seaver or Carlton, but Ryan’s rookie and other cards far outpace the other pitchers exponentially

  • @wheelman0799
    @wheelman0799 2 месяца назад +1

    If you look at card prices from back in say 2016 then that chart would be pretty close to.what you would expect but like 2018 things srarted going up then went nuts in the 2000s

  • @Dog8myhomework
    @Dog8myhomework 2 месяца назад +2

    Hot take: had lebron and wade never teamed up to win 2 titles together, Dwyane Wade cards would be more valuable today as he was an up and coming superstar that won a ring and a finals mvp before teaming up with lebron.

  • @Forthefunofthehobby
    @Forthefunofthehobby 2 месяца назад +1

    Very interesting. Love the content as always!

  • @Ryan-yh3zw
    @Ryan-yh3zw 2 месяца назад +1

    A great example of sport good does not equal hobby good. Plenty of guys seem undervalued based off relative performance but popularity is important.

  • @Aut0KAD
    @Aut0KAD 2 месяца назад +1

    I think the WAR Thing confused some people like 'hey, you are trying to gauge collector value with player performance'. Its interesting to show but the expected value with war doesnt have meaning on your argument, that there is an exponential increase in 'GOATS' vs non-goats.
    What you could have done is use WAR to bucket players into 3 categories. Then fit a linear regression for pop report trying to predict price. The fit wouldn't be good (e.g., low R-squared value), thus showing there isn't a linear relationship. Then you can either 'account for goatness' and show how the exponential fits better.

  • @MikeyCards
    @MikeyCards Месяц назад +1

    That exponential price difference is what made me choose KD over LeBron for my modern basketball PC 😬

  • @845SportsCards
    @845SportsCards 2 месяца назад +3

    Maybe we need a fudge factor for "hype".

  • @ikhbjhbkm5
    @ikhbjhbkm5 2 месяца назад +1

    Great analysis. Truly yours is a channel for the thinking collector.
    I wonder however, with the HOF baseball example, established HOF players say 10 years post induction, does the relative value ever really change? Put another way, even with the most rigorous analysis of over/undervalue, can one hope for, or have we ever seem, a dramatic reordering of the vintage pricing hierarchy? Do we just ultimately over time get a gradual and ever increasing expansions of the stars and their relative multiples. Must be that capitalistic Dark hobby Energy at work.

  • @old-schoolrookiecollector1667
    @old-schoolrookiecollector1667 2 месяца назад +1

    Awesome video really enjoyed it

  • @raphaelbiello9095
    @raphaelbiello9095 2 месяца назад +1

    Amazing examples

  • @rj-vj8gr
    @rj-vj8gr 2 месяца назад +1

    great video Chris

  • @gabriels1163
    @gabriels1163 2 месяца назад +1

    Supply & demand. Every collector wants a rookie of the top tier players. Players like aparicio and dwyane wade have a small fanbase in comparison. Prices can also swing because of the team the player was on or non-playing actions of the player. Yankees players tend to be worth more than they should be. Barry Bonds tends to be worth less than he should be.

  • @Vintage_Dave_T
    @Vintage_Dave_T 2 месяца назад +1

    Thx for doing the math, Chris. So interesting! I guess I’m not surprised.

  • @Dog8myhomework
    @Dog8myhomework 2 месяца назад +5

    Dwyane Wade didn’t need lebron to win a title (Wade won a title as the best player on the team and was the clear finals mvp). lebron needed Wade to win a title.

  • @mcpw1818
    @mcpw1818 2 месяца назад +1

    This is one of the best comments sections I’ve ever read.

  • @MichaelIp
    @MichaelIp 2 месяца назад +2

    Trying to rationalize the irrational is fun

  • @montrealsports29
    @montrealsports29 2 месяца назад +1

    As The Temptations and Edwin Starr sang, "WAR. What is it good for? Absolutely nothing." They foreshadowed this video 54 years ago!

  • @mattcason2904
    @mattcason2904 2 месяца назад +1

    Prestige and lore always take precedence over production

  • @bitshift8
    @bitshift8 2 месяца назад +1

    I'm curious if switching to a logarithmic scale for price brings the trend back in line or not 🤔

  • @jude999
    @jude999 2 месяца назад +1

    The main point I get out of this is 3rd tier should not be in the Hall of FAME. We all knew this, but for you to spell it out is fascinating.

    • @rlsfrny
      @rlsfrny 2 месяца назад +2

      That's just plain stupid. You clearly weren't alive when Aparicio was playing. Aside from being considered the best fielding SS in baseball until the Wizard came along, he was a ROY, a 13x All-Star, a 9x GG, over 500 SB, over 1300 runs scored, over 2600 hits from the leadoff position, AL Champion in '59 with the Go-go Sox, World Series champ in '66 with the Robbie brothers Birds. That, my friend, is a 1st ballot HoF resume in today's world.

  • @5714Collector
    @5714Collector 2 месяца назад +1

    Hi Chris, enjoyed watching this video.

  • @rudistorm3348
    @rudistorm3348 2 месяца назад +1

    The Math nerd in me is laughing with an extra snort after watching this. Would love to see an NFL example with Brady, Manning and Roethlisberger.

  • @weekendhero7411
    @weekendhero7411 2 месяца назад +1

    Is this WIN - "Winning Percentage Calculator is an online tool designed to calculate the ratio of wins to total games played, often used in sports and games" ? What about greats that were on loser teams. I'm thinking of Tony Gwynn, whose cards are doing well.

  • @ricardocanales211
    @ricardocanales211 2 месяца назад +1

    Research department doing some OT work. Keep looking for that "Time Machine".

  • @fjf6050
    @fjf6050 2 месяца назад +1

    Supply is the same but demand is going to be much greater for the GOATS especially a guy like LeBron who might actually be THE goat. If you got 500 of each card but only 100 want the Bosh, 500 want the Wade and 10,000 collectors want the LeBron then that's where the multiplier comes from. I don't even watch that much basketball but I'm basically salivating over that LeBron refractor RC and just indifferent to the other two.

  • @stevemartinish
    @stevemartinish 2 месяца назад +1

    my guess without having seen the value of the lebron was 7k. it's quite a bit more valuable, it turns out. haha. definitely an important thing to remember if we collect some second tier players.

  • @willzsportscards
    @willzsportscards 2 месяца назад +1

    For the sake of accuracy/completeness...there are actually five tiers for the HOF. 1) Clemente/Mantle etc 2) Banks 3) Aparicio AND 4) Scott Rolen tier (anyone who is a reliever goes here as well) and 5) Harold Baines tier. The fifth tier is the most exclusive. One member. Doubtful anyone else ever makes it into this exclusive club

  • @soluscristus1
    @soluscristus1 2 месяца назад +1

    You should look at soccer cards and specifically Messi and Ronaldo. Neither player is playing in a top tier league anymore and yet those two players still way out sell other players in modern sets.

  • @The_Cincinnati_Kid
    @The_Cincinnati_Kid 2 месяца назад +1

    Like the charts and math here!

  • @Rawstock92
    @Rawstock92 2 месяца назад +1

    Position has to be considered, too - hitters over pitchers, scorers over defense, quarterbacks over every other position …

  • @in2rock275
    @in2rock275 2 месяца назад +1

    You also have to consider popularity and likeability.

  • @Rawstock92
    @Rawstock92 2 месяца назад +2

    Bo Jackson is an interesting outlier … his card values will outweigh HOF players in two leagues.

  • @matthewelliott2213
    @matthewelliott2213 2 месяца назад +1

    Top tier players are exponentially rarer than 2nd and 3rd tier-- and there's other factors effecting value...market for instance--- maybe the player just played in front of millions more people and those folks could have more personal/sentimental value? Or, for instance, my beloved Super Sonics don't even exist anymore... less and less people can have that attachment to the team or players?

  • @808trades
    @808trades 2 месяца назад +1

    I think a modern baseball one would have been interesting and have more parody.

  • @mattingly234ever
    @mattingly234ever 2 месяца назад +1

    Bob Gibson is definitely top tier

  • @wheetie7
    @wheetie7 2 месяца назад +1

    Without watching.. ide like to see ..iverson vs kobe vs nash allen

  • @PennySleeveSteve
    @PennySleeveSteve 2 месяца назад +1

    I’d like to nominate Mr. Sewall as the first Justice of the Supreme Court of Sports Cards!
    ⚖️👨‍⚖️

    • @ThomasCourt-c2f
      @ThomasCourt-c2f 2 месяца назад +1

      I’m one of the nine on there (by birthright).

  • @ktc629
    @ktc629 2 месяца назад +1

    Clemente and Lebron are 1.888x more in demand by fans, thats the explanation. More demand higher prices

  • @bryanl3659
    @bryanl3659 Месяц назад +1

    I don’t really feel anything is over or underpriced here. The money has always flown to the top in the hobby

  • @Philly_Joe
    @Philly_Joe 2 месяца назад +1

    I have absolutly no interest in Bosh, Wade or Apiricio cards and maybe just a smig of interest in the Labron and Banks It's all supply and demand. Overall, more people care about the card / story of Clemente and Lebron then the others. Thanks for the excellent analysis (I'm a numbers guy) and keep eating your veggies.

  • @jmilb10053
    @jmilb10053 2 месяца назад +2

    Sox vs Cubs over war. Clemente's death explains the difference between him and Banks more than stats. There is no way to use numbers to explain why a sports card is more valued. Collecting is subjective not objective.

  • @HeyKidsComicsSC
    @HeyKidsComicsSC 2 месяца назад +2

    I see what you’re going for but using WAR to gauge the expected value is extremely flawed as there is a max number attached. No one in their right mind would say that Clemente is only 1.7x more popular/culturally important/quality than Aparicio.

  • @evanfraser64
    @evanfraser64 2 месяца назад +1

    The million dollar question is when do the most-elite superstars become too expensive? There is a number. If Bosh were $1 and James were $100,000, James would have to be too expensive, right? Certainly a lot of influencers have been saying that one should only invest in the best of the best. I smell a correction….

  • @mackeymintle66
    @mackeymintle66 2 месяца назад +1

    Aparicio is Dangerfielded…always has been in my lifetime. Jack Morris effect suffering, dollar bin hof”er. Popularity is a fickle pickle…🤷😩

  • @jimbobrobertson3285
    @jimbobrobertson3285 2 месяца назад +2

    Chris, can I work in your research department?

  • @Mskedu47
    @Mskedu47 2 месяца назад +1

    The Hobby is winner take all or winner take most. Even if you think MJ was 5x better than Clyde Drexler, MJ rookie psa 10 is 150x Clyde

  • @AllRise99-b8t
    @AllRise99-b8t 2 месяца назад +3

    This is pretty much why you should only collect the biggest names, unless you have personal or connected reasons to collect other particular player.

    • @ghill628
      @ghill628 2 месяца назад +1

      I think you're confusing collecting with investing. One collects because they like. One invests because they are trying to make a profit.

  • @cryptonite8495
    @cryptonite8495 2 месяца назад +1

    You left it unsaid, Chris, and maybe it goes without saying:: Prices are driven by demand, not WAR or Win Share.

  • @andrewreid895
    @andrewreid895 2 месяца назад +2

    Interesting fact… that lower tier HOFer Luis Aparicio has a higher career WAR than Sandy Koufax. Koufax has got to be the most over rated HOFer ever.

  • @el4174
    @el4174 2 месяца назад +1

    Banks Top Tier

  • @ptccombatfitness6726
    @ptccombatfitness6726 2 месяца назад +2

    Clemente is much higher because of his early death

  • @colinburroughs9871
    @colinburroughs9871 2 месяца назад +1

    Joe Montana and Peyton Manning cards say achievements don't outpace fan interest.

  • @dannytheviper
    @dannytheviper 2 месяца назад +2

    Nice vid but does this not just prove that WAR is a pointless metric and not much else

  • @gridironstars
    @gridironstars 2 месяца назад +1

    Who is paying $50 more for Bosh than vintage Aparicio RC 😢

  • @rubixcircle4136
    @rubixcircle4136 2 месяца назад +1

  • @lgc_opc959
    @lgc_opc959 2 месяца назад +1

    WAR and Win Share can’t measure key events and character appeal/charisma, but I understand that they are objective measures. I think LBJ’s fat head/ego hurts his appeal and his cards would be even higher if he was more likeable. Thanks for this analysis!

  • @inaka99
    @inaka99 2 месяца назад +1

    Based on your basketball example and running the financials, I’ve come to the conclusion that if Jesus is paying LeBron, I’m paying Dwayne Wade.

  • @cashdoug
    @cashdoug 2 месяца назад +1

    You aren't factoring in the size of each of the Tier 1, Tier 2, and Tier 3 pools. There might be 120x as many Tier 3 players as there are Tier 1 players in NBA history. If you've ever played in an auction based fantasy football league, you see the same thing happen. The Tier 1 QBs go for many multiples of the average QBs because you can't win the league if you just have a team of average players.
    With regard to collecting, I sometimes use the test, is this a player my 13 year old is aware of? He's a fan, but not a student of any particular sport. If they've made his radar, they are probably Tier 1. Another way to ask this is, will they be talking about this player in 30 years? That test explains why a '81 Topps Kirk Gibson PSA 10 just sold for $9K better than career WAR. If there was a way via social media to test how "top of mind" a player is, that might be interesting.

  • @Doors067
    @Doors067 2 месяца назад +1

    Me watching lamar investmemts tank after 2 mvp awards bevause hes too "urban" for the large majoroty of the hobby

  • @markpekrul4393
    @markpekrul4393 2 месяца назад +2

    There you go again....trying to apply logic to the sports card industry/hobby/virtual casino....great video, though!

  • @fated316
    @fated316 2 месяца назад +1

    Goatani.

  • @seankane9279
    @seankane9279 2 месяца назад +1

    Stay with me on this one regarding the overall use of WAR as an evaluation tool. The example for this is the 2024 Dodgers, whose overall team WAR was around 40 (39.6). If I am understanding all the nuances of the math correctly, this team should win 40 more games than MLB "average" replacement players. An average team "should" finish 81-81 (bit of an assumption here), giving the Dodgers an expected 121-41 record. Yeah, right.
    The top WAR players hit 1-4 in the lineup (Ohtani, Betts, Freeman, Teoscar). My minor issue with WAR is that having multiple good WAR players stacked one after another will cause an overlap of that value due to each one influencing the other's WAR value. Lets call it an overlap as opposed to double counting.
    Feedback is welcome so long as it's constructive.
    Chris,
    Absolutely love what you do. You are the Oracle of Delphi, for me, when it comes to card collecting (baseball only for me).

    • @SaguaroJavelina
      @SaguaroJavelina 2 месяца назад +2

      Your mistake here is that you're equating "replacement player" with "average player" but those are two different things. A replacement-level player is a readily available AAAA-type player that any team could acquire at any time for free/league minimum. A team of replacement-level players would not win 81 games; depending on your version of WAR/how you're calculating replacement level, it would be closer to 50 wins, according to FanGraphs/BaseballProspectus/etc. Adding the Dodgers' 40 team WAR to that gets you to 90 wins, which is obviously a bit short of their 98, but that speaks a bit more to the randomness of baseball than the flaws of WAR as a stat, especially since adding wins like that isn't really the intent of WAR. WAR is far from a perfect stat but it's very useful as an estimator of overall value/performance, and by far the best single statistic we have for that.

    • @rlsfrny
      @rlsfrny 2 месяца назад +1

      @@SaguaroJavelina Accurate. AND the way to calculate the number of games is not by adding 40 to the win column and subtracting 40 from the loss column. That would be 80 games over .500. The right way to do it is add 20 W and take away 20 L to get to a record of 101-61, 40 games over .500, and pretty close to where the Dodgers sat.

    • @seankane9279
      @seankane9279 2 месяца назад

      @SaguaroJavelina Thanks for that. I still think that when you have multiple good/great players on the same team, WAR is somewhat double counted.

    • @seankane9279
      @seankane9279 2 месяца назад

      @@SaguaroJavelina Very useful information. My thought process has been altered by your response and I always enjoy learning things, even when I'm partially or wholly incorrect.