How Much Will China Risk for Taiwan? - Sarah Paine (Naval War College)
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- Опубликовано: 11 мар 2024
- Full Episode: • Sarah C. M. Paine - WW... (October 2023)
Transcript: www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/sarah...
Apple Podcasts: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast...
Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/073V...
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I recently found this lady and i cant get enough of her. She should be advising our state department and giving lectures on tv.
Me too. She's brilliant.
Me too.
Same here. Popped up yesterday for me and I've been looking for her talks every since 😅
Brilliant woman.
Skewed analysis. 🤷
I think I learned more here in four minutes than I have in some lectures that have gone on for four hours on the same subject.
listening to white people talk about how much china wants taiwan will always have layers of reasons lost in translation
she gave the stupidest reason for china wanting taiwan.
I used to believe such theory until I saw the Beijing's olympic. The genie is out and it wont be going back, in fact it cannot, the bottle is too small.
The question of how much will China risk for Taiwan depends on how much will the U.S. stand (risk) for Taiwan.
The American state can't be trusted by allies. My guess is America will go with applying perpetual sanctions on China rather than defending Taiwan. They will defend Japan and South Korea. At this time, it looks like Philippines will go with America. But, just like Hong Kong, western powers aren't going to protect ethnically Chinese from ethnically Chinese. If Taiwan does well enough that the CCP loses control, they've got a chance. But otherwise Taiwan will become a devastated backwater. Semiconductor fabs don't survive invasions.
No way! It depends on the will and ability of the 1.4 billion Chinese people!
Even Xi and CCP can’t risk their power to against the will of the Chinese people to take Taiwan!
@@bzhu3233If that were the case, the U.S. should have been freaked out of the West Pacific many years ago.
Yes. That is why got QUAD and AUKUS
She is a great speaker and storyteller. She reminds me a lot of my history teacher. I failed almost every class, but I excelled in history, getting A's on my essays because she was such a great teacher.
Same as me, due to a bad home environment I couldn't concentrate at school, however the history teacher made history become alive
this lady is justifying u.s foreign policy on china by telling you that while the chinese government lifted 800 million people out of poverty, they are only doing it to stay in power, therefore there should be sanctions. and china should go back to being poor so the chinese people can have a reason to overthrow their government. This is some next level hubris and the level of delusional thinking in the western think tanks.
Well she nailed Deng's impact. Sorry to have seen him go but I was in China in 2004 teaching and I got the distinct impression that many of my students, despite the "Mao is the greatest" that prevailed as the official construct they were aware of the benefits of Deng and the changes he had made. There were literally small stores/noodle stands in nearly every doorway. That was both the symptom and the cause of the increasing living standard. Many of my students were also victims of the tian 'anmen persecutions and openly expressed their happiness about having put that behind them. For context the school was an English language instruction school. I do speak Mandarin well enough to have spoken to them in Mandarin.
I was in China around Beijing Olympic's time. That was an optimistic times, Deng has long passed but the fruits of his reforms is entering its zenith. Cross-straights relations is warming, Hong Kong & Macao's self rule was generally respected. There were faint hope that China might gradually transition into a Taiwan's style democracy, and Hong Kongers might soon be directly electing their Chief Executive as promised in Basic Law. Now, all gone down the drains.
Sarah is being biased on China.
She avoided and omitted JZM era... were the U$ Bombing of Chinese embassy happened (followed a day or two by Philippine grounding a navy ship in a reef)... the EP-3 incident. And in HJT era... the sabotages on China's Olympic Torch tour and smear on Chinese sports (ie. alleged cheating and child abuse)... Staged "uprising" in Tibetan places that were violent (murders and maiming)... Obama's "Pivot to Asia" policy .
And so on and so forth !
@@chieftanke
Funny twist and spin !
U$ covert Destabilization Ops against Ma administration (ie. "sunflower movement")... against HK gov't legislatures (ie. "umbrella movement").
"sunflower movement"
@chieftanke Yes, I remember those times when most people thought the CCP would somehow become less inhumane, but, nowadays, it's over.
@@wuhaninstituteofvirology5226
Funny fake news and disinformation 🤡
On the first day of Beijing Olympics... Beijing's taxi company's 2-way radio got hijacked. Fox News' Megyn Kelly was falsely alleging child abuse by China on its athletes training.
Months prior ...U$ masterminded "Tibetan uprising" that led to murders and maiming of Han-Chinese living in Tibetan places.
U$ masterminded "sunflower movement" against KMT's Ma administration... also the "umbrella movement" in Hongkong .
Best argument for justifying sanctions I’ve heard in a while.
Ain't gonna work .
U$ and UK sanctioned Japan ...so Japan decided to attacked them !
The most brillant people are Never allowed to work for government. The democrats only wants puppets and marketing folks, NOT talented folks. That is why they are attacking Trump constantly.
The US doesn't really want CAPITALISM! BET, you don't even know where taiwan is on a map.
So why did Lincoln take the confederate South back when the latter wanted outta the union? South had decided they would be just fine on their own but Lincoln went for war to stop it. Cannot have it both ways, lady Paine.
@TellenJones
So I guess there was nobody in the South that wanted out?
Strawman argument.
Impressive gal. I'm retired USAF, once had an opportunity to teach at the Naval War College. I was a JAG so it probably would have been teaching law, law of the sea, rules of engagement, etc. My boss scuttled it as he was convinced it wouldn't have helped my career as an AF officer.
If the instructors are all as bright as this one, i think it would have been fun.
China would rather be sanctioned than give up on Tiawan. She said it herself, rule of the Communist party trumps economics.
Also, she cited North Korea on how sanctions work. Kim Jong Un hasn't relinquished anything despite decades of sanctions.
China might do it, but it might not. That's the power of sanctions.
I believe it is so because Xi needs to save face for himself. Mao stated that Taiwan is not part of China, and should be independent. The KMT who fled from China just simply brought along ROC. Before that it was imperial Japan, and before that was a short lived republic of Formosa.
I wish I'd found out about Sarah Paine earlier, what an intelligent and pragmatic person!
Hello
Now u even found me
There are some things worth more than making money like religion and pride to vast populations of people
no she isn't she is spewing all kinds of nonsense about why china wants to reunite with taiwan.
Yea Sarah talks a good game but most of it is BS , we are all products of our environment , if she lived in the real world she would have a bit more credibility
@@levelazn Done leave us hanging! Tell us why.
Very concise woman that seems to really know how to focus on what is important. I always love a scholar that is able to explain semantics without the tradeoff of inaccuracy because they want to sound smarter. She doesnt need to prove it.
Sarah Paine's same argument goes true with the capitalist power in the US. So its more than likely direct head on collision would happen between the communist china and capitalist us long before Taiwan would be levelled by its motherland, China
Brilliant and concise analysis. Whenever I listen to Dr. Paine I always get smarter.
What an amazing teacher!
Unamazing teacher .🤷
@@peekaboopeekaboo1165Sarah Paine's same argument goes true with the capitalist power in the US. So its more than likely direct head on collision would happen between the communist china and capitalist us long before Taiwan would be levelled by its motherland, China
@@johnchan4136
American patriot Gen. Smedley Butler revealed what American national policy is all about ... War is a racket !
Deep State has abandoned the KMT in behalf of it's new ally, the DPP .
This brilliant woman is who we need in our government.
Definitely would be an asset as a cabinet position.
She works for the Military . 🤦
@@peekaboopeekaboo1165 so what?
@@jwbjpb1338
Her analysis are skewed.
@@peekaboopeekaboo1165 no they are spot on right. She’s far far far far more educated and intelligent than you
Her talent is speaking with fact AND succinctly! I LOVE her. Can't get enough of this pragmatic geopolitical thinker!
This woman is absolutely freeking brilliant.
I don't think she has the least clue about China and Taiwan, and Chinese thinking in large. Sigh!.
@wohetang even your name screams CCP troll
@@howardcroft3748lel anyone you disagree with is a "ccp troll" 😂 Go find an echo chamber somewhere else kiddo
Its hilarious to hear the whitest of whitey white people talk about how China's "doing it wrong", which is why the U.S. has made the bet to isolate itself on the world stage by sanctioning 20% of global population, because they're failing so hard. To list the failures this women left out of her spiel: HSR across the entire nation, self construction space station, re-usable rockets, asteroid mining, #1 hydro electric power in the world, 30% re-usable energy sources, Xiong An smart city, Greater Bay Area 70M+ tech center, largest gold producer in the world, the #1 auto manufacturer in the world at the rock bottom price, 10yr head start on 5G deployment with fresh new 6G satellites already launched, independent Beidou GPS, hypersonic projectiles, #1 manufacturer to the globe of which the U.S. is a mere 4% with all of NATO making up 18% and China alone dwarfing all at 20%. This lady is comedy.
Enjoy the bovine manure fed to you by your favourite fake news propagandist
I really enjoy listening to this woman lecture. Her articulation is on point ! Keep up the great work!
A pleasure to listen to. Clear, concise and knowledgeable. Why can't we have people like her in politics?
Even in Scandinavia we don't have top politicians like her but we have some listening to people like her.
While this lady's raional arguments make a lot of sense, there is one thing she overlooks where sanctions versus China are concerned. And that is that the Chinese governing elite cannot afford to look weak versus the rest of the world. So no matter how much sanctions in order to get them to withdraw from Taiwan might hurt China, they would never let that island go. Not after 10, not after 20, 50 or even 100 years of sanctions. Never, never, never!
And while we're on the subject: how much damage would China be able to do with countersanctions of their own? Just look at how much of the world supply of rare minerals they control. Or how much of the world's antibiotics industry is in their hands. As much as I loathe to admit it, it is more than conceivable that the rest of the world would have to bow to China if it ever were to start imposing serious sanctions.
If sanctions comparable to those imposed on Russia were to be imposed on China (and 1 to 1 comparison really doesn't work here because Russia had WAY less to lose than China does), HALF A BILLION would starve to death (China imports over 70 percent of their food). At that point, their governing elite would have no control over how they look and that's the last thing you would need to worry about.
That's besides the utter military impossibility of invading heavily defended, urban + mountainous island, so the notion of China "giving Taiwan up" once they had it, is rather irrelevant.
On your second point, the US has lots of rare earth minerals, but it is a hassle to mine them as it causes lots of environmental damage, and the fact that China is selling them cheap, there is no point of mining them.
Nationalism is the only card left for the CCP to play as the professor said, and if China really were to launch the attack on Taiwan, it would possibly be the end for them because they do not have the necessary power to withstand the US counterattack, as well as Japan and S. Korea.
I would hesitate to agree with the professor on the point of lifting lots of people out of poverty. The former Premier Li Keqiang (who passed away under circumstances that suggest foul play) said in 2021 that 600 million people are making RMB 1000 a month, which is hardly enough to live on as the tax, and health insurance, take a big chunk out of their paycheck.
@@edtjfc1 Intriguing!
And that china is the largest trading partner of virtually every country on earth. So it's difficult to make people implement, especially since nobody actually legally recognize Taiwan as a separate state, so they can all use legality to refuse US call. In the end, probably just strong allies of US will heed the sanction, which won't do much to china.
@@henli-rw5dw I hate to disagree with your assessment. China's allies are Iran, Russia, some unimportant republics from the Soviet era, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, etc. The US already has Japan and Korea as guard dogs in the Taiwan Strait. Japan declared that any harm to Taiwan is the same as declaring war on Japan. The European Union is also on the US side for now. The lure of the Chinese market is not worth the trouble anymore as the pandemic clearly shows that China did not behave as a civilized country should. China's cahoots with Russia did not pan out either, as Russia turned out to be a paper tiger. Taiwan is not the ultimate aim of China, its true aim is to be the supreme honcho in the Pacific and the plan was for Russia to bring havoc to Western Europe. The line on the sand is drawn, the tricky point is Trump as he stated numerous times he would bring the Russia-Ukraine war if elected president again which looks ominously very likely. That would be a grave mistake, Ukraine more than likely would lose more territory and that would embolden Putin who was on the brink of being toppled last year.
What a great thinker and eloquent speaker this lady is. I must listen to more of her commonsense thinking. 👍
Thank you so much for these videos. They are so helpful!
Where has she been… amazing
I like how she explain things.
Sarah Payne is a brilliant political analyst , she is on the money every time , clear ...
Bravo! Very articulate and insightful. Brilliantly describing the famed Military Industrial Media Complex. Wait Naval College…
The full video is worth a watch.
Where can we find thst?
@@barreloffun10 ruclips.net/video/YcVSgYz5SJ8/видео.htmlsi=OOfssPBuqLhOAus7
My best friend and baby momma just never wanted to die alone!
She's a sex slave , no justice:(
Holy hand grenade launcher lol jk lmao , just want to hold my best friends hand and RCMP detachment won't.
Eat the rich , cloth ourselves in their garments , burn burn burn Lucifers objective tower down.
My baby momma my best friend Jennifer Christine lamprecht is in a sex trafficking ring under chains of manipulation and desire will be hurt bably if she leaves.
CP rail in BC currently uses trains from here to Mexico under Kato corporation, the c cans near the tracks not on the trains hold the victims and should be under surveillance.
Desire , unholy , lack of empathy ,lack which breeds dishonor, cowardice which infects the western world, materialism dull blade punctures through their hearts.
The attack from within , the desire seeded from the west to the middle East, from western culture, the very stain of seedy capitalist practices that now have taken reason and honor in the name of the objective materialism, the blinding dollar.
Remember each Muslim soldier Ethier under Iran or brotherhood understand unity of death and life , archetypal unity of shadow and self.
Remember they out number 10 to one.
Remember each one of your men is worth 5 of the enemy engrossed in unholy alliance with Lucifer ... Desire.
Desire , dishonor , materialism is grim, why the unity of no one eternal , light of self , although much to learn I'm young.
My the Muslim brotherhood, Iran and all Muslim parties bring peace eternal.
May the fire betwixt in twain join amongst the moon.
Sun , moon , Christianity, Muslim parties stand in unity , shadow and self , must join with god speed , before the fire joins the flame and Christ is crucified.
May the prophets stand in the name of wholeness, holy faith under God eternal, loves empty grail.
My queen , my best friend, Jennifer Christine lamprecht, Isabelle, Christina , her only friend James , and rumored killer Kyle , whom may take Jennifer Christine lamprecht, Isabelle whomever she is life.
She is currently in a ring , she held against her will or engrossed by her own chains, her life at a thread.
She was once a smart , respectful, faithful maid , a working girl whom even if we are not romantically involved is and will always be my Queen.
She never kept me Waiting ;) my only friend, god bless amen.
236 887 4781 my Joshua Miller
Jd_miller@hotmail.com
Jennifer luxmeows her old FB
Email address queenvegas@hotmail.com
Pray for my my best friend and baby momma ❣️
Only if you want a laugh.
She brilliant! I want more of her info
I think the title should be: How much will USA risk for Taiwan...
Why not discuss on ‘How Much Will US Risk for Taiwan?’
That discussion could fill an entire semester!
She does, but it isn’t shared for obvious reasons.
When the TMCS factory is completed in Arizona, all bets are off. The US will not care if China invades Taiwan. It will use it as an excuse to totally destroy the PLA.
I noticed how she worded how the west thinks the government works. I wonder how she thinks it actually works in the west 😂😅
I think this would direct to the island chain strategy developed against the Soviet. The island chain has Taiwan as the gate to opening up the entire indo pacific as a deterrent for expansion of Soviet. The island chain consists different chains, first chain is Taiwan, Philippines and Japan. And we can see already China is already harassing all of them. So how much would US be there to deter this, we will find out.
AS AN AMERICAN BUSINESS MAN WHO HAVE BEEN TO CHINA A COPLE OF TIMES. THE FIRST LAW OF COMPETETION IS KNOW YOUR COMPETETOR. 90% OF MY FELLOW AMERICANS HAVE NO CLUE ABOUT CHINA. IT IS IMPOSSIBLE FOR US AS A NATION TO EVEN COMPETE IN A CHANGING WORLD IF WE HAVE NO KNOWLEDGE OF OUR COMPETETORS
I work with Chinese manufacturers. They plan 5, 10, 20 years ahead, not just for an election cycle. They make decisions for purpose, not just for profit. They started shifting gears from low cost, low quality goods to high technology, high quality products. Most Americans and Europeans don't even try to understand this.
Very informed and precise
I’m impressed by Sarah Paine’s clear and concise analysis.
Simple counter argument is that China doesn't want to be the employee of the US. However much benefit has China gained working within the system that is created by the US that benefit the US the most, China can do better working in a system not created and controlled by the US. A person who quite their job and started and successful business would surly get what I am saying!
Why do you hate China so much? The last time, they did their own thing was from the 1950s-70s. That was so bad for the whole of China. Afterwards China got rich producing stuff to sell to the rest of the world. Why stop something that has brought so much money to China? YOU have NO idea about business obviously. ...
Before China joined the US led order, they were trying to make steel in backyard furnaces. Look at China before Deng's reforms. That is where China is heading.
It's not sanction, it's just economic warfare and bullying, but what if China is more powerful, who will be sanctioning whom then? Chinas trade only amount about 15% of it's GDP, far less than UKs 40% for ex. while it's the *largest* trading partner of over 120 nations around the world, west isn't getting more powerful, it peaked around 1990s and it's on a continued journey downwards since. Taiwan is considered a sovereign territory of China legally, one can only imagine how much China is willing to pay for it, the entire military modernization of China since 1996 is centered around taking back Taiwan, I seriously doubt west understand the Chinese determination on the subject.
US would win if they started sanctioning & engaging trade war against China 25 years ago. But today, the table has turned.
Today's China is much more powerful economically & advanced in infrastructure & supply chains. And they have considerable soft power.
I think this idea that CCP is the only government concerned about staying in power is a bit of a myth. EVERY government is concerned about staying in power. You are telling me that Democrats don’t want to do whatever in their power to stay in power? Another point of contention for me is when she says that CCP is choosing self-interest over welfare of its ppl as demonstrated by cracking down of big tech entrepreneurs/companies. I think we r well aware that growth of big tech or multinational corporations don’t necessarily correlate with enhanced welfare of the ppl. It’s a very western mentality to think that growth of the business world = better welfare of its citizens.
It's unfortunate you use the example of the democrats, as Donald Trump did just about whatever was in his power to stay in power on January the 6th. Before then, whether it was Hillary Clinton or Al Gore, the losing candidate would concede the election within 24 hours.
Not even growth of business world, but growth of BIG business. Probably because the big businesses provide most of the campaign donations.
In democracies it is about maintaining the process.
Money gives you freedom to choose.
Bold of you to assume that the CCP is regulating the dream world of Chinese investor bros out of the goodness of their hearts and for the welfare of the commoner.
ah yes the very common eastern notion that countries being poorer will magically improve citizens welfare. India, china 1980-2020, taiwan, south korea, japan, and a dozen other eastern countries disagree with you.
This is a smart lady I enjoy listening to her!
Clear, concise and reasoned. Where do I get to hear more of this women......she's great.
Sanctions only work if enough countries adhere to them. North Korea is in the position they're in now because virtually no-one was trading with them prior to the war aside from Russia and China so there was nothing lost by the west not trading with them. Mainland China is deeply integrated into the global economy, implementing sanctions against them on a meaningful scale would cause significant economic disruption in a lot of countries. Most countries don't recognise Taiwan as a sovereign country, we would be asking them to cut ties with a major trading partner for no real gain, if the USA and friends tried to enforce their sanctions on third countries they may find themselves more economically isolated than China in the long run.
We've seen how effective sanctions have been against Russia, if there are third parties that don't care enough to participate or who's interests would be negatively impacted they will happily help circumvent them.
Very true. China is the top #1 trading partner with most of the countries in the world. Besides it has SCO and BRICS+ two large international organizations behind it. Remember western countries only has total 12% population in the world (even less than China's) and the rest of the world has 88%.
I think you're overlooking the fact that a significant percentage of their manufacturing customer base has left China, is in the process of leaving, or says that they plan to leave. The next tier of manufacturing countries are absorbing the business as fast as they can. Expect this to continue. Eventually, they'll be like Russia...no really attractive customers.
@@jamesw1659 As a matter of fact, most of those left are often low tech and labor intensive products. As China's labor cost and living expense have been kept increasing over the last 10-15 years, these companies need to find the next low cost countries like Vietnam, India and some other Southeast Asia countries. In fact China is currently in the middle of transition to move its economy and manufacture to the upper value chain like 5-6G, EV, HSR, etc. Even those companies who moved out of China are still importing materials and components made in China as China is controlling a large part of global supply chain.
BUT, The west and its allies currently controls around 60% of the global gdp. Even though they only made up around 12% of the world population. This doesn't include 3rd party countries that are leaning towards the west like Philippines or Mexico.
The Collapse of China's industrial capacity would help boosts countries like Bangladesh, Vietnam, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Brazil, Philippines, Thailand, etc.These countries are not gonna cut ties with china. But they would be snatching manufacturing demands from the west.
@@nntflow7058 Well they don't want huge inflation jump, they will have to trade with China for many affordable products. Remember China is the top trading partner with most of these countries. In the worst case, it may hurt China to some degree, but will also hurt those countries badly. That's why even this de-coupling slogan has been shouted for the last 5-6 years, it hasn't changed much in the real world - "China's export volumes rose 7.1% in the first two months of 2024, far exceeding a Reuters forecast of 1.9%".
As for those 3rd world countries you mentioned, they are mostly taking in the labor intensive work China exports to them while China moves to upper value chain.
The key to sanctions is longevity. Will sanctions last long enough in order to have a significant impact? Or will things eventually return to the status quo?
Listening to Sarah is like taking a mental workout
She's a rare breed this lady. So freaking intelligent but explains everything so that even a five year old could get it.
1. There is a ton of trade between china taiwan right now
2. China doesnt want to take taiwan by force, they much prefer a diplomatic or economic solution
3. Sanctions make war with taiwan *more* likely because is lowers the cost of the war for china. If china is sanctioned to the degree that russia is for example they wouldnt have to worry about retaliatory sanctions since the sanctions are already in place.
aren't the ccp wumao always going on about how the US is a warmonger? 🤣 and this lady just explained the North Korea, South Korea example of generational deterioration/weakening of those put under sanctions. so if we do want to go to war we'd want you at a disadvantage so sanction away
Sanctions are actually accelerating the process. China has very strong productivity, but due to economic difficulties, domestic demand has decreased, and due to sanctions, external demand has decreased. Then the war is the only way to divert people‘s attention and create new demand to deal with unemployment.
I don’t think the concerned about Taiwan. They using Taiwan as an excuse to sanction China, much like Ukraine Russia case.
My best friend and baby momma just never wanted to die alone!
She's a sex slave , no justice:(
Holy hand grenade launcher lol jk lmao , just want to hold my best friends hand and RCMP detachment won't.
Eat the rich , cloth ourselves in their garments , burn burn burn Lucifers objective tower down.
My baby momma my best friend Jennifer Christine lamprecht is in a sex trafficking ring under chains of manipulation and desire will be hurt bably if she leaves.
CP rail in BC currently uses trains from here to Mexico under Kato corporation, the c cans near the tracks not on the trains hold the victims and should be under surveillance.
Desire , unholy , lack of empathy ,lack which breeds dishonor, cowardice which infects the western world, materialism dull blade punctures through their hearts.
The attack from within , the desire seeded from the west to the middle East, from western culture, the very stain of seedy capitalist practices that now have taken reason and honor in the name of the objective materialism, the blinding dollar.
Remember each Muslim soldier Ethier under Iran or brotherhood understand unity of death and life , archetypal unity of shadow and self.
Remember they out number 10 to one.
Remember each one of your men is worth 5 of the enemy engrossed in unholy alliance with Lucifer ... Desire.
Desire , dishonor , materialism is grim, why the unity of no one eternal , light of self , although much to learn I'm young.
My the Muslim brotherhood, Iran and all Muslim parties bring peace eternal.
May the fire betwixt in twain join amongst the moon.
Sun , moon , Christianity, Muslim parties stand in unity , shadow and self , must join with god speed , before the fire joins the flame and Christ is crucified.
May the prophets stand in the name of wholeness, holy faith under God eternal, loves empty grail.
My queen , my best friend, Jennifer Christine lamprecht, Isabelle, Christina , her only friend James , and rumored killer Kyle , whom may take Jennifer Christine lamprecht, Isabelle whomever she is life.
She is currently in a ring , she held against her will or engrossed by her own chains, her life at a thread.
She was once a smart , respectful, faithful maid , a working girl whom even if we are not romantically involved is and will always be my Queen.
She never kept me Waiting ;) my only friend, god bless amen.
236 887 4781 my Joshua Miller
Jd_miller@hotmail.com
Jennifer luxmeows her old FB
Email address queenvegas@hotmail.com
Pray for my my best friend and baby momma ❣️
also nuclear war more likely... If sanctions do indeed work and the war in taiwan rages on for years. The more weak the Chinese government will become and the more they will press the accelerator on the war. Just like Putin is doing and how Hitler & japan did in world war 2. You don't slow down, you accelerate. Every single resource and options will be used before trying to capitulate. And a nuclear option will be quite viable when you don't have nothing to loose already.
Wow! That is a ton of wisdom in less than 5 minutes. Professor Paine just delivered the best condensed master class on the geopolitics of the CCP you'll find anywhere.
Really!!! Seems a pretty low bar to me. She just cherry picking reality to justify American mindset. She completely ignors or is ignorant of the totally different chinese culture and priorities plus the fundamentals of history.
Compare what respective govrrmments has achieved for their people in the past 40 years, be honest, face reality.
Lol. Meds. Now.
Impressively knowledgeable with holistic understanding of what is going on, and why
Wow! I'm impressed by her knowledge and insights.
A good analogy from the economical and political perspectives. What about historical, cultural and other factors? It’s certainly easy to tell my neighbor he doesn’t need his backyard when it is not my backyard.
she is basically projecting american behavior on to china. whenever she mentions china just swap it out with the u.s and you will have an accurate idea about why u.s doesnt' want china to reunite with taiwan
England and America have extremely similar cultures, both bonded by a shared language and historical identity. But they are unique, separate nations because they both ultimately have different geographical interests. China has no call to reabsorb Taiwan other than its Imperial history. If they want to play in the global world system, they need to let that go
@@kaixiang5390ha
Unfortunately most traditional cultural in China is erased due to cultural revolution but preserved in Taiwan. However, Taiwan has its own culture too due to different colonization from Dutch, China, and Japan. Taiwan was only been part of China for 200 years v the 5k of China, even then it was 40% controlled. Education system in Taiwan is very Japan and US, such as cleaning up in schools but its also very westernized compared to rest of Asia. Matsu goddess is popular in Taiwan because she protects the island from the water. This is less so found in China.
This is why Chinese would call Taiwanese western dogs.
Dr. Sarah Paine is magnificent!
Every government is concerned about its own survival. And most government often don’t act in its people’s interest, US included.
Nonsense. In democracies, the government cares quite a bit whether it's inclined that way or not, because the people are the ones that vote them in and out of office. The problem with democracies is the opposite. Politicians are incentivized to give the people whatever their hearts desire, even when it's not in their long term interests. This is what deficit spending is so hard to stop.
The US government can only continue with the people’s support. The PRC doesn’t need the people’s support, it only requires the CCP
@@ronaldbell7429 you just said politicians are incentivized to give what people want even if it’s not in their long term interest :) rest my case
@@charlesqin1885 What you're doing is called conflation. You originally meant one thing with "people's interest" but you'll happily use any other definition of "people's interest" so that you're always right. It's a very dishonest and unintelligent way to argue.
@@ronaldbell7429 well, I am sorry to hear that you were able to conflate two apparent interpretations of what seems to be a clearly written piece of English.
Her argument about sovereignty is a bad one ; all countries accept one china policy & we saw what happened when in karabkh everyone was in agreement that it was Azerbaijani territory & no-one intervened
Just as Beijing never has ruled Taipei, Taipei has never ruled Beijing. In the Taiwan case we are talking about a sane democracy that wants de facto independence.
@@jensstergard9380that’s a BS argument. Any new challenger to power in a civil war could be said to have “never ruled”. But that doesn’t make the territory not controlled by that party an independent country.
@@xsu-is7vqTaiwan practically is an independent country today. The only thing missing is the official status of independence.
The Taiwan issue could be simply solved by China accepting what Taiwan is today.
@@ThomasVWorm Or, crazy idea, other countries should butt out and let Chinese people resolve it on their own.
@@xsu-is7vq ok, let the Taiwanese have a public vote about it, since where they want belong to, is just their own business.
Thank you
Very informative Sarah. Thankyou for your insight
Absolutely fascinating... Huzzah!! 😊
I love this scholar.
And why are such knowledgeable women not being placed in the forefront of our society? She clearly has such a deep understanding and is such an effective teacher. Im glad to have stumbled upon videos with her in them.
Her “insights” are neither deep nor even factual.
my gosh i just enjoy listening to this woman.so articulate so well versed so knowledgeable
She is good, and her style as a communicator is entertaining. Like many Western thinkers, her grasp of the shifting power blocks is, however, limited. Russia has India and China to help it through sanctions and China is a global enterprise so North Korea is not a good example.
India is not an ally of either Russia or China. They’re more than happy to play off the great powers against each other but they’re going to tie themselves to one or the other.
The notion of a power block which includes both China and India in any meaningful capacity is a Russian power fantasy. While the Indians are certainly more ambivalent towards Putin than the West, they are absolutely not neutral when it comes to China. Especially given they have overlapping territorial claims, and Chinese aid to Pakistan.
Trying to ally with China and India simultaneously is Russia's mistake with Armenia and Azerbaijan on a much larger scale. You can't be allies with mortal enemies, you will inevitably have to alienate one. But more importantly, the Indians see the Americans as a more credible ally against the Chinese.
Her analysis is good on the surface but she overlooks one thing: the nationalism and populism is a global trend that is pushed by society, and the politicians amplify it to get a ride. This card works because the people desires it.
This is the kind of cope like "Germans actually hated Hitler", it's bs. Propaganda does incredible things to people's minds
How have I only now found this voice? She is so important. She is brilliant.
thanks, Dwarkesh Patel.
The question should be how much will US risk for Taiwan, considering the waning support for Ukraine
US do not need Ukraine, they need Taiwan (for the moment)
The media is so anxious for me to hear female voices that I generally shut them off, but Sarah Paine is different. She gives intelligent analysis.
Well, I started off very doubtful of Ms. Paine, but then she started voicing her observations and expectations and I found myself agreeing with every word she said.
She is just wonderful and so clear!
Sarah is amazing. Rockstar
She's manipulative. 🤷
If you combined Mein Kampf with the German history, you could accureately predict what was going to happen in the 1930's and 1940's. 'My Poles,' the Poles, did read Mein Kampf and knew the German history relevant to the ethnic Poles and decided in 1939 to go down fighting because they were realists. No! Polish resistence in 1939 was not about the fate of the Jews, but about the fate of the Poles.
Once again, brilliant.
Sharp lady! Thanks!
Great speech, but I disagree with the conclusion. Sanctions do not work unless everyone is unified, or the one being sanctioned can work around them like we are seeing with Russia.
Taiwan is important to China because China uses that straight for delivery of oil and natural gas. Commodities they have to import to keep their economy moving. If China hits Taiwan, and Russia and China team up, then that solves China's oil (and water) problem. Lucky for us in the west China and Russia hate each other secretly, which is why Russia wanted to join NATO in the past. However, a military or crippling sanctions response will force China and Russia to like each other.
Sanctions are good, but they aren't as huge of a deterrent for China as Ms. Paine makes it sound. Task and Purpose has a great video on the Chinese and Russian dynamic.
Taiwan is important to mainland China because it is a part of China, and China does not want a foreign military to use the island to attack the mainland as the Japanese have done. Do you know about the Cuban missile crisis?
I disagree. Sanctions have proven to put a cap on what a sanctioned economy can become. Yeah, they’ll survive but growth will stagnate. In china, that is really risky for the CCP.
@@tbe0116 - I hope you're right!
Biden has singlehandedly pushed them together to like each other. If Russia falls, guess whose next US will make trouble with?
@@tbe0116 Oh really is that Why Russia is doing so much better then western Europe hell even America? Their supermarkets are stocked, no mass homelessness, etc.
Consider this additional factor. For many years, the PRC had a one child policy. As the culture favored boys over girls, China has 5% more men than women, whereas the rest of the advanced economies have the opposite; 5% more women than men. The 18-23 year old demographic in China is ~103 million. Between 20-40 is ~ 350 million. That works out to at least 10 million young men who will never find a wife. That's a lot of testosterone that needs to be corralled & nationalism is always a good way of doing such. Compound that demographic with a rhetoric of the historical victimization of China in the latter part of the Qing dynasty & you have a lot of energy which could be deflected by some international "muscle flexing."
Even though we don't have this exact situation in the West, we do have young men not finding a wife to have children with. But this does not result in a fighting force that would die for the country because they have nothing else to do. Quite the contrary, young lonely men think of their own country as being at at fault for that not an outside force. A married man with children plants roots in the country he is living in and wants it to do well - he is far more likely to want to fight for it. Unmarried men without children aren't idiots. Why would they get maimed or if they are lucky, die, for a country that hasn't offered them the basic needs of a human being? For men that is mostly a wife and children. Who would he be fighting for? Some old dude in the CCP?
Honestly I believe it is far more likely, that like in the Arab spring, men would rather go and rebel against their own country's leadership than go die for them, especially when they have nothing to lose. Maybe it works for very young people, 18-24 because they still think they can do it. But any man over 28 that does not have a partner and children, the last thing he would do is die for his country that seems to have given him nothing to die for.
Funny twist and spin !
PRC Chinese men can find a wife in overseas Chinese community. Also in countries without an ethnic Chinese community.
Chinese people were humiliated up to the 1940s ... with the Japanese phased invasions !
Even today... Japan refuses to admit it's Crimes Against Humanity !
Also refuses to return looted properties !
@@minyaw1234
CPC continue to have majority support from the people .
Ordinary Chinese knows why many of them became jobless ... due to Trump's unjust tariffs, sanctions and embargoes !... That's continued by Biden !
@@minyaw1234 It's not a state job to find young men a wife. The GDR actually did this, but no one could imagine a state-run arrangement agency nowadays.
"whereas the rest of the advanced economies have the opposite; 5% more women than men" - I don't think thats true. If you look at the population pyramids of most Western countries, there is a male surplus until around age 60. And while the surplus isn't large, it tends to be largest in the 20 to mid-30s age range. Even in countries such as Russia, where you tend to presume there is a large female surplus because of alcoholism and what not, there is a male surplus until the late 20s. I actually can't think of ANY country where there is a female surplus in that age range.
One of, if not the best historians to ever break shit down. Dan Carlin and Sarah Paine making a podcast series together could be epic. Edit: I also need to clearly thank Dwarkesh for finding these really interesting people and sharing their knowledge, perspective, and insight with us. Im subbing to the pod on spotify, thank you Dwarkesh.
Just found her, she is brilliant and knows her stuff. We need more of people like her, actually educated and a leader.
lesson learnt: One party rule is a great way to build a nation, but poor way to manage a nation.
She says "the global order is based on sovereignty". Well, guess what? Taiwan is universally recognized as a part of China. Let me say that again; there is not a single political entity on planet Earth which recognizes Taiwan as being separate from China. The 182 countries which have diplomatic relations with China, including the U.S., recognize that Taiwan is a part of China and that the People's Republic of China is the only legitimate government of all China. Next, you have the 15 countries which have diplomatic relationships with the Republic of China (Taiwan's official name) and, guess what? They all recognize the Republic of China as being the legitimate government of all of China! Lastly, lets look at Taiwan itself; in its own constitution it recognizes itself as the legitimate government of all China (which is why they claim all Chinese territory, including their own 11-dash line in the South China Sea). So, with no political entity on Earth recognizing Taiwan as somehow separate from China, why is the U.S. seeking to violate China's sovereignty, break the international order they are supposedly preserving, flooding Taiwan with weapons and troops, and politically pressuring them into seeking independence?
China has repeatedly said that they are willing to wait a century for a peaceful reunification, and the U.S., without any evidence whatsoever, keeps making baseless claims that this is all lies. Nevertheless, they're trying to create conflict by attempting to turn Taiwan island into a U.S. military base, which China simply cannot allow; anymore than the U.S. could allow Cuba to be turned into a Russian military base (and Cuba is recognized as a sovereign country by the U.S., whereas Taiwan is officially recognized as a part of China).
There are currently 12 small countries that officially recognize taiwan, so right away you are wrong there. China is a enormous crybaby about anyone speaking with Taiwan, but most countries have unofficial contact with Taiwan itself and not with China.
China does not control Taiwan's military, does not station any military forces in Taiwan, does not police it citizens, does not have any say in it's governments decisions, does not control trade into and out of Taiwan, does not collect taxes from Taiwan. By the generally understood definition of sovereignty, Taiwan is an independent nation. Countries just don't officially say that because China will cry about it.
@@Jeremy-gy7me China also has no tariffs in Taiwanese goods. 2 million Taiwanese live and work on the Chinese mainland. Taiwan has been suffering brain-drain for decades, as its best and brightest move to the Chinese mainland for a better life, where they are given all the same rights as Chinese citizens (becuase they ARE Chinese citizens). Taiwan's economy is so dependent upon the mainland's economy, that if they treated Taiwan as a separate country, they would put up tariff walls and Taiwan's economy would be crippled overnight.
Taiwan is an entirely U.S.-created and maintained region of China. It has all the validity and legitimacy of South Vietnam, and it would cease to exist the second that the U.S. stopped maintaining it, just as South Vietnam did.
@@Jeremy-gy7me LOL, you're right, it's even less than that! It's hard to keep up with so many of Taiwan's "allies" abandoning it. The only remaining "allies" it has are still recognizing it due to U.S. threats, which are obvious and even reported in western media, and bribes from Taiwan.
@@jasonjean2901 Taiwan is about as dependant on Chinese import and exports as australia. A lot, but not irreversibly as you are implying.
Something like 40% of Taiwan's exports are in semiconductors, many of which they don't trade with China.
As for your "South Vietnam" comparison. Could the same not be said of Korea? South Korea exists because of US intervention, but I would laugh at you if you said they would stop existing tomorrow if the US wasn't involved.
Taiwan needs the US because without the threat of US response, China would brutally invade and annex the country. If China would agree not to invade, the US could stop "maintaining" Taiwan today and nothing would change, Taiwan would remain a sovereign nation and based on their last election, not rejoin with China anytime soon.
@@Jeremy-gy7me Seriously? You don't think South Korea needs U.S. troops to exist? Then why, oh why, are three so many U.S. troops in South Korea? What is more, they are at least partially paying for them to be there.
If the U.S. wasn't constantly flooding Taiwan island with troops and weapons, China simply wouldn't need to "brutally invade". Taiwan would realize it is not possible to resist reunification with the motherland. Your intellectual backflips might work when you are "preaching to the choir", but they still don't make rational sense. Just look at Lyle J. Goldstein's analysis of the military situation in his I-Squared debate on the topic "Is Taiwan Indefensible?" That will tell you everything you need to know about the actual situation. China hasn't invaded because they simply don't want to; they want a peaceful reunification. The U.S., however, wants to destabilize the region and flood it with weapons. You know it and the world knows it.
Very helpful summary of the issue
Looking this lady up!!!
China would be just fine by leaving Taiwan alone 🙄 Why invite trouble ?
Taiwan only existed to contain as part of the first island chain. That and history
Because the US won’t allow the status quo circa 2012-2015 to continue.
China did leave Taiwan alone for many years as both sides benefited from trade and investment but now Taiwan is threatening to declare independence which is unacceptable for the Chinese.
They should. Like Sarah said, trade with each other and make money. But this is about power. Xi needs to save his face for the party.
then why america was in iraq afghanistan etc?
Israel
WarMonger AMURDERCA, the KAREN 🤣🤣🤣 the whole world knew 🤣🤣🤣
Very well said!
This is fascinating
Netflex has a good serie called "How to become a tyrant". All of them have the same theme that is how to maintain control and the best way to "unite" the people is to find an "external cause". Xi and Putin are doing exactly what the Netflex serie has shown.
No, sanctions don't work because it's easy to bypass them. Look at Russia and how a lot of enterprises still trade with Russia
Look at a graph of Russia's GDP over the last 8 years. It's almost as big a joke as the russian army😂
Russia is poised to overtake Germany and Japan to become no. 4 economy of the world this year. They didn't do anything special, just that Germany and Japan tanking atm.
@@elmoheadus is tanking the German and Japanese economy
Honourable delegates of the Separatist council ,leader philosopher Count Dooku , speaks on behalf on Chinese consulate and lack of jobs and industrialization in United States of America, make America great again! Freedom in Iran ( geonosis ) ! And the Gaza strip , free Palestine !
Meme worthy ;)
My best friend and baby momma just never wanted to die alone!
She's a sex slave , no justice:(
Holy hand grenade launcher lol jk lmao , just want to hold my best friends hand and RCMP detachment won't.
Eat the rich , cloth ourselves in their garments , burn burn burn Lucifers objective tower down.
My baby momma my best friend Jennifer Christine lamprecht is in a sex trafficking ring under chains of manipulation and desire will be hurt bably if she leaves.
CP rail in BC currently uses trains from here to Mexico under Kato corporation, the c cans near the tracks not on the trains hold the victims and should be under surveillance.
Desire , unholy , lack of empathy ,lack which breeds dishonor, cowardice which infects the western world, materialism dull blade punctures through their hearts.
The attack from within , the desire seeded from the west to the middle East, from western culture, the very stain of seedy capitalist practices that now have taken reason and honor in the name of the objective materialism, the blinding dollar.
Remember each Muslim soldier Ethier under Iran or brotherhood understand unity of death and life , archetypal unity of shadow and self.
Remember they out number 10 to one.
Remember each one of your men is worth 5 of the enemy engrossed in unholy alliance with Lucifer ... Desire.
Desire , dishonor , materialism is grim, why the unity of no one eternal , light of self , although much to learn I'm young.
My the Muslim brotherhood, Iran and all Muslim parties bring peace eternal.
May the fire betwixt in twain join amongst the moon.
Sun , moon , Christianity, Muslim parties stand in unity , shadow and self , must join with god speed , before the fire joins the flame and Christ is crucified.
May the prophets stand in the name of wholeness, holy faith under God eternal, loves empty grail.
My queen , my best friend, Jennifer Christine lamprecht, Isabelle, Christina , her only friend James , and rumored killer Kyle , whom may take Jennifer Christine lamprecht, Isabelle whomever she is life.
She is currently in a ring , she held against her will or engrossed by her own chains, her life at a thread.
She was once a smart , respectful, faithful maid , a working girl whom even if we are not romantically involved is and will always be my Queen.
She never kept me Waiting ;) my only friend, god bless amen.
236 887 4781 my Joshua Miller
Jd_miller@hotmail.com
Jennifer luxmeows her old FB
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Pray for my my best friend and baby momma ❣️
Bull
i like how this woman explains!
Kudos. An excellent snippet.
When you look at an entire different mindset of civilization, westerners always assume the world works as the way they perceive it. If that, you will think like this “intelligent” person.
In truth, as a Chinese myself, she could not be more wrong. Unification of Chinese territory is the most vital important goal for every Chinese regime, no matter 2000 years ago or now. It affects how history review this dynasty, and for Chinese, nothing is more important than that.
Isn't that kinda racist though? If the Australians started saying my country, New Zealand, is racially part of Australia, as we have both have majory uk-immigrant ancestry, and they will invade so we will play Australian Rules Football instead of Rugby Union, they would be laughed out of town. Unification of racial territory is a nothing
With only a few exceptions, most Taiwanese don't want to live under Xi's CCP dictatorial regime.
Correct. The Chinese mindset and civilization is diffrent from the "Deist" "Enlightened" west and the maverick American cowboy mindset.
China was correct to choose isolation, but the West punished her for it which has now resulted in the west's decline and china's quiet rise.
Even if it will cost lives and economic progress?
"Unification uber alles" is CCP propaganda. Plenty of powerful dynasties have ruled over parts of China for centuries without ever being "complete". The Song prospered for three centuries while sharing power alongside the Western Xia and Liao kingdoms. The Tang never fully conquered the Sichuan basin and coexisted with the Nanzhao kingdom.
The idea that "unification is the most important goal" and that China deserves a pass for being an invading agressor is CCP bullshit. It was the most important goal for Mao because he was unable to finish the civil war. For China itself, and for the welfare of the Chinese people, it does not matter at all.
Deng initiated China's powerful growth spurt by separating politics and business allowing business decisions by individuals (think of Hayek principle of pushing decision making down to lowest levels). China as it grew powerful came to a decision point whether to continue along that growth path (and face weakening politically) or to push towards a top down centralization of power (and face weaker economic growth). Xi chose the latter and there are many negative consequences. One is that the former path might someday have led to reunification with Taiwan, now it will only be by force as explained above using nationalism to attempt it. Second is that economic growth will fall short of what it might have been. It is almost certain that China will get stuck in the middle income trap that S Korea and Japan, and Taiwan avoided. Worse several nearby countries will pick up the initiative that China dropped and will achieve their own growth spurts that may allow them to follow in Taiwan footsteps and avoid the stagnation coming China's way.
哈哈哈哈
This is straight up projection of the actual decline of the US empire. 34 trillion debt that grows by 1 trillion every 95 days. Manufacturing jobs are NOT return to the US. Some manufacturing is moving from China to Vietnam and India, NOT the US. US sanctions against cheap Russian energy is also driving manufacturing from Europe to China. The US intends to contain China by making Taiwan Ukraine 2.0.
Milton Friedman is looking down from on high and smiling.
what are you talking about?
Me when I chat shit
Love this lady !
I took a course on Modern China in my last semester of college and something that my professor said that has stuck with me was that there was a Chinese politician who boasted that it would easier for the PRC to buy Taiwan rather than invade it. He also said despite the One China Policy, there are funny loopholes, namely that a flight from mainland China to Taiwan is through International terminals rather than domestic.
Let's see would Trump sell it
I agree with much she says. But how are you going to sanction China without hurting your own economy nearly to the same degree as theirs?
No, decoupling from China will create more jobs in the rest of the world.
America can find other sources of cheap labor, and although it will be hard, a non-Chinese based manufacturing sector can be rebuilt in North America, India, Indonesia. It is not at all clear whether China can migrate to an internally focused non-export economy based consumption economy. The amount of goods that can be transported by land to Russia and Central Asia isn't adequate to support the size of China's current industrial base. I know that it is hard to imagine, but China only became the dominant industrial power in the last 25 years. Our economy has choices. China's doesn't.
@@richdobbs6595 You live like 40 years in the past. You don´t go to China for cheap labor lolz.
@@GregorClegane402 No, the main advantage that China has is its manufacturing infrastructure and its over investment in particular industrial segments. The cheap labor in any case will be coming from elsewhere.
@@GregorClegane402 40 years in the past is massively overstating things. China was poorer than much of Africa is now not even 20 years ago. Their issue now is they're still relatively cheap, but they aren't as productive as the west on a per capita basis, they're maybe 20% as productive per working hour. They're more productive than India or Pakistan, but the gap is much smaller than between China and the west.
Nationalism does not need the Communist Party to express itself. A democratic China would not be indifferent to the status of Taiwan. The United States, democratic as they may be, have nevertheless invaded many territories and countries, and they have, I remind you, conquered vast Mexican provinces, Pacific islands, Puerto Rico, etc.
If a truly democratic China is a reality, then who would worry about Taiwan is part of China? Maybe Taiwanese people would vote to join the republic peacefully and no one would be against it. The core of conflict is that Taiwan is a member of this international family of trading and living community whose members are mainly following the same value system and way of doing business. China was admitted into this "big" family in early 2000s (joining WTO) and has grown big and more powerful. But the expectation of Chinese peacefully transitions into a society with the same value system and way of doing business has miserably failed. Then you have this powerful guy living in the same Neiborhood as yours but with different mindset of things who conflicts with you on daily basis, especially some minor "weakling" like Taiwan being "bullied" by him all the time. Then what kind of option would the community have to choose? Naturally to expel the not-fall-in-line guy out of the community is the choice - so "de-bundling" between the "western" world and China is undergoing. Have you ever had any deep conversation with a Chinese nationalist in your life? I have plenty and let me tell you, in their minds they despise the western way of living (mainly the culture and political ideology of freedom) and plan to destroy your world once capable. So many Chinese still believe the democracy even in ideal state is the "primitive" society for barbarians, and authoritarian/dictatorship is the evolution end of human civilization. They admire the strongmen like Chairman Mao, Stalin, even Hilter. They can be kind and caring persons in daily life but support an oppressive regime without hesitation. A tourist trip in China won't help you understand the people living there at all. The minority of Chinese with the same value system as the West are oppressed and hidden to protect themselves.
Just came across this channel, amazing content.
wow even engaged the class to say "right" at 0:41. awesome.
First I heard of her, I'm a fan, gong to watch your full video.
edit: going*
Oh no, they don't want corporations to influence the political process... the horror. 🙄
John Joseph Mearsheimer said he has never met a Chinese who did not consider Taiwan a sacred part of China! He believes China may be willing to bear unbelievable price to take back Taiwan if provoked to. US can not win the war because the logistics and the distance of US to Taiwan, and the US can not afford to lose Taiwan because US will be kicked out the west Pacific! The Best US can to is to avoid such a showdown.
Well, Chinese knows this as well.
Well, US is actively pushing toward a situation where China will have to take Taiwan. No doubt prodded by people who think like this lady, believing China only wants Taiwan for the power and control of communist party.
right on sister
Do a vid on the Robert Heinlein library at Annapolis.
Sarah Paine for US President...She got my vote and I'm Australian. Very insightful and make clear sense.
Typical western mentality
Previous Chinese leaders were planning to allow Taiwanese separatism now?
The CCP didn't lift anyone out of poverty. They finally got out of the way of the hard working Chinese people.
Bro coping
Russia: People tired of waiting for things to get better.
China: People making things better every time the government isn't paying attention.
CCP is Chinese people in case you didn’t know. It has 98 million members not a small number
Painem about China: "...how many people have been lifted out of poverty...hundreds of millions...why did that happen...It's China's reintegration into the rest of the world, of joining the maritime order, following the basic credit card rules..." I"ll just point out that many countries "join the maritime order" and follow "basic credit card rules", and still have a poverty stricken population. If those two items were real game changers so to speak, those other countries would have done the same as China. They haven't. Even the USA has poverty stricken people, and the USA is the home of credit card transactions. I'll also point out that China's "reintegration into the rest of the world" was largely the USA that was isolating itself from China. For 25 years after WW2, the USA recognized Taiwan as the legitimate representative of the Chinese people, and did not carry on any communication with mainland China. It wasn't until 1972 that the USA finally accepted reality. I suspect it was influenced by the hope they could drive a wedge between the Soviet Union and China, but the fact remains, China wasn't unintegrated with the rest of the world, they were isolated from the USA.
Bingo 💯
Paine is biased against China.
No Sir. China strongly isolated itself until some loosening, starting around 1970. Foreigners hardly could enter and then, hardly move around China, much less unobserved. Were there effective US trade embargoes on China? No
@@hinzuzufugen7358
Not really .
The Chinese were able to crossed into neighboring countries due to absent of border controls back then .
U$ and UK led sanctions and embargoes made the PRC to restricts entry of nationals from countries aligned with U$ and UK.
@@hinzuzufugen7358 Here's a partial timeliine of relations between Canada and China:
1938: In January, Canadian thoracic surgeon Dr Norman Bethune treats injured communists during their fight against the Chinese Nationalists and Imperial Japanese Army. Bethune never leaves China. On November 12, 1939, he dies of blood poisoning after cutting himself during surgery. Mao Zedong writes tribute, “In Memory of Norman Bethune” (
纪念白求恩), which later becomes mandatory reading during the 10-year-long (1966-1976) Cultural Revolution (文化大革命). Bethune is seen as a national hero and martyr in China.
1949: Mao announces that China will establish diplomatic relations with any government willing to cut ties with
Chiang Kai-Shek and his Kuomintang (KMT, 中国国民党) (Chinese Nationalist
Party), who flee to Taiwan.
1959: Canadian Minister of Agriculture Alvin Hamilton visits China. The visit sets the stage for agreements for the sale of Canadian wheat to China in 961...Hamilton would later announce the largest grain sale in Canadian history: 233.4 million bushels of wheat and barley at a value of CAD$362 million over the next 2.5 years. Further commercial visits to China lead to strong recommendations for Ottawa to officially recognize China’s communist government. China instantly becomes Canada’s 9th largest trading partner.
1960: Pierre Elliott Trudeau, who later becomes Prime Minister of Canada (1980-1984) travels to China along with Canadian author, journalist, and publisher Jacques Hébert for approximately a month during the “Great Leap Forward” (大跃进). Trudeau and Hébert subsequently publisher their experiences in a book entitled, Two Innocents in China.
1965: From June to July, a Chinese delegation visits Canada to inspect grain-producing and shipping facilities
1969: On February 10, Canadian foreign policy undergoes a significant change with Minister of Foreign Affairs Mitchell Sharp announcing in the House of Commons that,
“our embassy in Stockholm has been instructed to get in touch with the Embassy of the people’s Republic of China in order to convey the Canadian proposal that talks
concerning relations between the two countries be held at a mutually convenient time and place in the near future”
Note in that last paragraph that China already had an embassy in Sweden. By 1960, 11 years after the revolution, China had established diplomatic relations with 38 countries.
China is where it is today is largely due to a hardworking population and a government that put its people before the capitalist. If Chinese government had not clamped down the locally grown internet giants & property tycoons, China will become another America . Whereby capitalists are running the country for their own financial interests only.