Just the idea that you can force companies to sign agreements that hand over all their customer data to the the government on one hand and then be surprised when the rest of the world stops buying and investing in those companies. It’s juvenile
It is important to understand that in China, people who can flip houses or own multiple houses are at least the wealthy groups in the middle class, and only when the price of this industry comes down can it really benefit ordinary people to own homes
I guess you don't pay much attention to the housing issue in China. Since 2016, Xi has been trying to wean himself off real estate, and now it is just paying off.
LOL, look at how the USA kills its allies' economy today while ExxonMobil always hits a new world record on net profit every time the US Democratic party wins the US presidential election. LOL
@@zacksmith5963 No there are no jobs in the west at all. Everyone is on the street looking for food and work. Most people are emigrating to China as it is so good there with Xi.
@@garycmli It spews nonsense from the beginning. FDI to China last year was over USD 150 billion. How could it be 33 billion? Just because China invested over USD120 billion overseas last year, then FDI to China was the difference between the investment absorbed and that going out? By this way of calculation, the US would have negative FDI figures.
Don't see the survey but can say the coverage was well put together, easy to understand, and more importantly, hugely informative and relevant to global concerns for all.
China has fallen into the "middle income trap". China should have developed its domestic market as it developed its manufacturing sector. But now the cost of Chinese labor is higher than that in Vietnam and India; so foreign investment is leaving Earth's largest prison. Xi Jinping is worsening a bad situation: he threatens war with Taiwan; he tightens his grip on power; he prolongs the problems which were caused by the bursting of the real estate bubble (and spreads the problems to the banking sector); he pours money into the already excessively large manufacturing sector; he continues to pour money into useless infrastructure projects; he scares away foreign investors; ... the list is almost endless.
One of the reasons that so much money was poured into infrastructure is to inflate GDP figures (and to nourish the middle class worker ofcourse). Local governments are responsible for GDP growth and accepting money from Beijing to build useless bridges is an easy way to meet the target
@@LouiseChong-xk5xp -- The poor province of Guizhou has as many km of highways as Japan has. Money and resources are being wasted in order to reach Xi Jinping's 5 percent annual GDP growth.
@@LouiseChong-xk5xp Totaly disagree! Roads/interstates, bridges, airports, shipping ports are all government (state & national) investments. Sports stadiums are useless. There is a reason that the richest US state/cities are on the east and west coast of the USA; they have ports of entry.
@@CasperChicago but when I visited, stadiums are well maintained, meanwhile I have to endure pee smell and flying rubbish at subway. Flying plastic bag on the road is a norm while riding car😬 remembered my first visit, I was like omg, it is totally gta
😂1990. The Economist. China's economy has come to a halt. 1996. The Economist. China's economy will face a hard landing 1998. The Economist: China's economy entering a dangerous period of sluggish growth. 1999. Bank of Canada: Likelihood ofahard landing for the Chinese economy. 2000. Chicago Tribune: China currency move nails hard landing risk coffin. 2001. Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas: A hard landingin China. 2002. Westchester University: China Anxiously Seeks a Soft Economic Landing 2003. KWR International: How to find a soft landing in China. 2004. The Economist: The great fall of China? 2005. Nouriel Roubini: The Risk of a Hard Landingin China 2006. International Economy: Can China Achieve a Soft Landing? 2007.TIME:Is China's Economy Overheating? Can China avoid ahard landing? 2008. Forbes: Hard Landing In China? 2009 Fortune: China's hard landing China must find a way to recover. 2010. Nouriel Roubini: Hard landing coming in China. 2011. Business Insider: A Chinese 2012. American Interest: Dismal Economic News from China: A Hard Landing 2013 Zero Hedge: A Hard Landing In China 2014. CNBC: A hard landing in China. 201 5 Forbes: Congratulations, J You Got Yourself A Chinese Hard Landing 2016. The Economist: Hard landing looms for China 2017. National Interest: Is China's Economy Going To Crash? 2020. Economics Explained: The Scary Solution to the Chinese Debt Crisis 2021. Global Economics: Has China's Downfall Started? 2022. Cathie Wood: China's COLLAPSE Is FAR Worse Than Vou Think
If the CCP authorities really cared about the Chinese economy and the hundreds of millions of poor people in China, they would create laws that made rich people spent most of their time wondering the country side looking for cheap things and food to buy, as opposed to buying houses, cars, and expensive meals in high-demand countries like Canada, Australia or the rest of the west, so that China's economy would rebound in a consumption-driven way. Instead of looking for the CCP's next target to bully after Hong Kong, Taiwan, and the Philippines.
Chinese policy makers are frustrated consumer are not spending when Chinese had the very high saving (2.5 trillions). In the meantime, Chinese wages are improving in recent years, forcing many Chinese entrepreneurs to relocate low wages industries to lower income neighborhood.
It depends on relative pay and in the high tech sector factory workers are being paid more than waiters and service industry personnel. Obviously if you compare to European and US standards almost the entire country is underpaid… but the cost of living is much lower
I have been paying a lot of attention to the Chinese economy and equity markets. DW has put together the best synopsis of the current state of affairs as I've seen in a short 22 minutes. They played the story right down the middle of the fairway. Great job !
Well done! You are combining all sorts of facts to explain China's increasing aggressive behaviour towards the rest of the world. But the west is focused on minimizing China's influence on domestic consumption by production . The Americans, Europians, Canadians, Indians and Japanese, are all focused on domestic production/ consumption , to avoid being reliant of changing CCP government Nationalism.
this sounds pretty sensible and rather accurate, my gut feeling is that this is an accurate analysis. thanks for the actually interesting and informative journalism :)
Appreciate the more balanced review. The problem, but also the strength, and how it puts it not as a win-lose game (western vs. China), but as one connected world.
There are similarities between China and Japan. The declining birth/fertility rate, the set up for a ‘lost decade’ and economic stagnation. However Japan have a much better capacity to deal with this issue as it’s already set up itself as an advanced economy and they’re also a liberal democracy that is part of Western Alliance in Asia alongside Australia, South Korea, New Zealand and maybe even India. In conclusion China’s crises could be even more dire than what Japan has experienced.
Only superficial demographic similarities. Japan managed to get rich before it got old. And while it is old, Japan doesn't have the gender disparity that plagues China. Millions of Chinese men will never marry or leave descendants. This has profound implications for a society schooled in Confucian ideals.
@@jacksmith-mu3eechinas real gdp is likely shrinking. China's population shrinking. China has deflation which is worse than inflation. USA economy grew 2.3% last year.
@@SelfProclaimedEmperor Agreed . China lied They claimed their economy is rising by 5.2% , that's a lie . Real growth is 50% . Even usa is under chinese loans U are correct . West is a country that definitely exist on planet pluto No child policy in usa is making sure that west a country that definitely exists in your mom bedroom 😂😂😂😂 gets chinese exports
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Two years into office, President Donald Trump authorised the Central Intelligence Agency to launch a clandestine campaign on Chinese social media aimed at turning public opinion in China against its government, according to former US officials with direct knowledge of the highly classified operation. Three former officials told Reuters that the CIA created a small team of operatives who used bogus internet identities to spread negative narratives about Xi Jinping’s government while leaking disparaging intelligence to overseas news outlets. The effort, which began in 2019, has not been previously reported.
According to these economy experts, the higher the house prices, the better. No matter if it's only 10% of the wealthiest individual that can buy them, it doesn't matter if most of the housing money are leveraged by banks, as long as the house price goes up, everything is fine. Yeah, that will work great with the demographics of 50 years from now.
BS lies, Reality is a lot different, China is in space with its own space station look up at night, and you see it, China has changed the world for good in the 80s a video used to cost over 100 dollars few people could afford a phone, thanks to the Chinese we all can afford things that used to be only for the few.
Really, where is the scholar with the counter point to authoritarianism means bad economy? At least bring one guy that makes a counter argument. The argument was that authoritarian means too much control means bad. But it seems to me that the Chinese measures has been fairly restrained in reining in real-estate bubble, attempting to reduce debt, resisting large stimulus that got it into trouble since 2008 and cracking down on large internet monopolies. I think maybe the last one has some political motive to it too but also a reasonable economic justification. On the other hand, US government also intervenes massively in its economy by pumping out huge stimuluses every time there is a crisis.
@@michaelgothenburg364 You are right, but as a prop owner wanting to sell and cannot close with 40% off, then we are effectively at 50%! Even then we don't know if we can close a deal...
@@cyberslim7955 I have heard of some sales at 30-40% off, I have not heard of any at 50%. I still think 30-40% is quite realistic, with many people not accepting to sell at all. Definitely a pretty bad situation over there
One issue with FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) that never gets mentioned is that China includes ALL profits earned by foreign enterprises and deposited in Chinese banks. So this is NOT direct new investment, but captive capital. And it truly is captive since the Chinese government does not allow these foreign companies to repatriate their profits back to their home countries or leave China in any way.
I just spent 2 months living on mainland china and the economy is fine! the country is booming, my partner left her job and had another good job within 1 week, one of the safest places i have ever been!
That the property sector has tanked is no problem? New apartments are sold at less than 50% of pre-pandemic levels prices doesn’t affect people? 😂 many many home owners had to borrow tons of money from family members just to be able to pay the downpayment for a new apartment, and now it’s worth less than half of the original price from just a few years ago and affecting millions of people. The ripple effects of these negative equity home loans are wrecking the economy right now. No problem my axx
@@Janjust1617 like most young people straight out of university they want a job their qualified for and thats not always possible no matter where yr from, empty malls here too the so many vacant shops who can afford 3k rent a week
@@ddnn974 yep and i can rent a brand new studio apartment for 400 dollars US a month i can buy dinner for $1.50 i can use the clean safe subway, i can walk around at night without any hassles,i didnt see one homeless person they get free housing, women can retire at 50 work a part time job and pay 0 tax, kids and retirees get free public transport, sure a few dodgy developers ripped a lot of people off who are now in jail Cancel Reply
If you had known anything about how China works, you would know that the numbers are manipulated at all levels, not only the top, and that not even the top knows the exact numbers
You need to add a discount to the numbers China reported. Do you believe an economy with 5.2% growth rate having huge number of people escaping to other countries for economic opportunities?
@@dreadfulbodyguard7288 The problem is most of them did not want to leave before. You never seen this huge number of Chinese crossing the border in the past.
@@brotherbig4651 Illegal migration is increased because now there are well established routes to enter US illegally from China. If you look at official data of high-skilled legal immegration, it has gone down significantly.
@@dreadfulbodyguard7288 The route has always been there. Nobody invented it. It didn’t draw that much attention because the Chinese didn’t need it. The high skills legal immigrants are up by a huge amount. Simply check how many joined the H1B visa lottery in the past two years, and how long it takes to get a green card if you were born in China.
@@OnMusicSoon1 Real estate allows a lot of people to put their property in a house, in fact, many people have more than one house. Almost every Chinese family has a house, either in the countryside or in the city. Now many people bought their homes in 2019, but because of the decline in house prices, they are not willing to pay the installment. So they don't want to pay even if they don't live. I haven't seen anything like it around here. Pretty much everyone has their own house.
Homeless China is 19.2 (for 10.000 people) Homeless US is 19.5 (for 10.000 people) So you are technically correct that China is doing better .... but just slightly.
have been hearing a lot about Chinese debt and economic collapse on many youtube channels but nothing is actually happening. How come China is still giving loans to different countries for its BRI projects with its economic crises?
wealth inequality has evolved in America to be more of a serfdom-so as long as people believe they can become billionaires and are thrown enough bones, the inequality will persist until the ponzi scheme that is wall street collapses-the real hazard of this inequality is the evolution of the oligarchy-mini kings and their 'royal' dynasties. Welcome to the Gilded age pt.2
If I were a Western country, I'd rather worry about myself, nothing to look forward to. Just to mention, as China develops, it can no longer have such growth rates. No country does.
When you have a debt driven economy that focuses on the political vs the market, this is what inevitably happens. You can't fool the market. And the market is the ultimate voice of the people.
@@goeleal1520 There's an end to all things, and China is at the end of its money printing rope. If you are unaware of its deficit and local debit issues, then you haven't been paying attention. But don't believe me, just wait a year or two and read this receipt.
Yep, the CCP is between a rock and a hard place...either increasing exports ('dumping'), that other countries are now resisting, or increasing household income & domestic consumption, leading to the rising political expectations of a more 'capitalist'-style economy.. aka, fears of another "Tiannamen Square".😢
China was previously going so strong and also had hundreds of thousands of tourists bringing in $$$ to the country. A lot of that is no more ... that tourist money and foreign investment appears to be much decreased. Just look at how much money tourists bring into Japan and Thailand for comparison. I read it's $32 Billion dollars for Thailand alone from tourism!
@@carefulconsumer8682Yep, and its also not helping that meanwhile Xi is still unwilling to curtail any of his ambitious *_spending_* on all these 'yuge' mega-projects, like building whole islands in the S. China Sea, the international Belt & Road Initiative, aggressive spending on the military and vanity Space Missions, as well as dozens of other project$, located in _other_ countries... and all in service not to bettering China's people, but instead to increasing Xi's single-minded goal of.establishing the _international_ Leadership and 'Dominance'_ to which he feels _'entitled'._
I love and trust DW programs. If anything, I would add something about the tremendous environmental/economic challenges China is facing as climate change makes flooding and drought fearsome. Other issues that I would like to consider on an economic basis is the cultural bias to respect authority, education, and cooperation with social efforts; I don't know how important these are, but they seem like important dynamics.
One thing which wasn't discussed: The Chinese working age population has been falling since 2015 - this followed decades of rapid growth in the workforce. From here on in Chinese economic growth will require productivity growth and/or an increasing participation rate.
@icet6665 They might be, but Chinese labour productivity growth has still been trending down for decades - currently at 4.2%. So, with a shrinking workforce, economic growth will be below this unless the participation rate can be increased.
@@AK-ej5ml Chinese skilled labor force is still at 200 million and highly skilled work force is at 60 million. Even with a demographic issue their productivity is increased by 20% over the last four years. In term of industrial output the growth has been average about 11.5 from 1990 to 2023 over the 33 year period.
This would be a definite problem if China was already developed, but China has an untapped and forgotten population who have never been part of Chinese economic miracle who are a ready and waiting resource?
@timmyg44 True, that population is there, so there is potential - however in recent years, even with the shrinking population, it doesn't look like they are joining the labour force. But often this sort of thing moves slowly, so hopefully China finds a way to increase the participation rate.
Xi also doesn't want a internal consumption driven economy. Since that would increase wealth and increase the Chinese middle class or as Xi calls it 'weakness'. This makes the Chinese population more difficult to control and so Xi is more comfortable with China staying or become increasing poor than risk any loss of control.
There's nothing strange about this. The CCP is most concerned about its regime security. If it feels that his regime is unsafe, let alone economic development, it will not hesitate to sacrifice half of the country's people!
They're trying to lift the other parts of the country out of poverty that's why they're not stimulating growth in property. They are also forcing companies to be more charitable. Yes heavy handed in controlling companies, but with a one party system they are not beholden to corporations. They don't care about the corporations, they're trying to have more even distribution of wealth. While in the west barely anyone can afford anything. If you read their mandate that's what they're trying to do
Scott Kennedy saying they should celebrate China's economic rejuvenation is ridiculous. The CCP traded China's future for short term growth. And by every model I've seen, it's outlook is nothing to celebrate.
Thank you to DW to worry about China's decline for the past 40 years plus predicting a collapse. Don't worry we Chinese are used to poverty and we are actually doing well, maybe you should worry about yourself and your economy. Our growth of 5% is still better than yours any day, so don't worry about us.
I don't think a well educated person would use the phrase of "killing" economics. There are ups and downs but none of any economics in the history has ever been killed.
Incorrect. Japan entering the Second World War was due to economics. The fall of the Roman was due to economics. Can give you examples of dozens more if you wish.
The fact the Chinese economy still has extensive coverage in Western media shows it’s still strong and a threat to West. Who bothers to report India economy?
Why is everyone all of the sudden so concerned about the Chinese economy and living condition of Chinese people? Do we not have enough economical and social issues in our own countries? Is it because if we point out problems with China, it makes us feel better about our own problems? Shouldn't we be trying to fix our own society, rather than worry about China?
Because China's economy is very important for pretty much every country, including yours! I understand your point, we should definitely focus on our own economy but we live in a international relations world. If China has any trade deals with your country, China 's stability matters
Because everyone here loves China, even the one profess to be anti-china, they all want China to succeed hence their concern. China's success will their success!
The West is of course happy about this, for better or for worse, rich Chinese are bringing them money overseas and investing in West locales where they believe prices will only increase. This has caused property value in immigrant-heavy jurisdictions to increase rapidly over the past several decades. Countries like Canada, Australia, etc.
but these countries are now regulating chinese purchases of real estate (particularly in my country of Canada) much more strictly, so it is no longer going to be a 'safe haven' for rich chinese and their capital flight from their broken system
They touched on it in the video, but a prolonged downturn in China will be particularly harsh on Australia too. China is Australia's largest trading partner, accounting for $125bn AUD annually - 27% of all foreign trade. Although the 2 country's trade balances are almost neutral with each other. So as a result, the longer the downturn in China, the slower trade velocity may become impacting Australia's economy. Am Australian and pay close attention to this.
The Soviet Union industrialied quickly, last century and living standards rose . However, by the end of the 70's there was little improvement , each year . This contributed to the rise of reformers like Gorbachev.
Economists have been talking about collapse for decades, (remember Gordeon Chang's book 'The coming collapse of China' published in 2001?) with it's economy only becoming stronger and stronger.
@@youngjoexu5435 Chang is NOT an economist, he was trained in law. Economists have not be predicting the collapse of the Chinese economy, those doing the predicting are usually political pundits who have little understanding of economics.
Its easy to grow your economy when you are selling everything below the cost of capital and simultaneously leverage up every level of government spending with huge amounts of zero interest debt while in a real estate bubble. Until the music stops. Ask yourself one question: would you choose to hold an apartment in Shanghai over that of New York, Paris, London, Zurich, Tokyo? No, you would not. For reasons that are obvious to all. Even the Chinese. So Capital has started to act accordingly. Its leaving.
they are trying to conive with Chinese nationals living in foreign lands to compete with the local businesses in the goal of monopolizing the market.. like in our country some Chinese national will be able to sell an expensive component at a very low price because they are able to get it in china at a very low price and without the need to pay upfront.. I'm not sure how they are so confident that the Chinese living abroad will be sure to pay them back but maybe that's why there are pseudo Chinese police in Canada or in other countries.. I'm not sure maybe just my conspiracy theorists. maybe I'm crazy 😂 but there's alot of Chinese businessmen able to start a business with almost nothing on their pockets..
i will easily choose Apartment in Shanghai over NYC, ive been living in both, at least Shanghai is perfectly safe, i never walked home after 11pm in NYC, no matter how close i was to home, i will take a cab, i dont want some desperate homeless people threaten me from the dark alleys. my life is precious.
Chinese work hard and efficient to produce more with less, but somehow it’s a sin, because it’s “producing below the cost of capital” according to you. I have never heard that being hard working and smart is a bad thing. Jealousy is over flowing in your heart.
Shanghai is safer, cheaper ( outside buying property) and has way better infrastructure than NYC or London. You need to travel more, not just sitting and imaging things.
At the same time, house prices have escalated beyond affordability for many young families in the west and food prices have been alarmingly high! China’s railway and public transportation system also puts us to shame. I wouldn’t write them off at this stage.
Increased authoritarism is always a bad sign, BUT on the flip side, lack of government regulatons can lead to what we have here in the West, where social media companies perhaps have become more influential than the governments themselves, in either subtle or obvious ways. The West (esp in America) is being dominated by these tech monopolies right now, and we are either blind to or completely ignoring it lol.
There has to be a “constant infinite growth” when the money that the system is made of, is constantly being debauched, debased, and devalued. Here in the country that I live in, that is signified by the $35 Trillion National Debt… heading to what? Headed straight for Infinity. How much National Debt should there be? Debt is not wealth. The National Debt should be Zero. I highly recommend you look into precisely what happened to the Gold Standard and exactly how it was “removed” in the U.S. It will be interesting for me to see if RUclips removes my post. When I have posted the facts about what happened to the Gold Standard, I’m used to seeing my post completely disappear, with no explanation of why. Here, I have not posted what happened to it. But I am wondering if it will be removed for simply talking about the “Gold Standard”.
This is German state media. Extremely neoliberal, constaly paddling worldwide billionaire interests. GDP is the only measure they are interested in. So what did you expect.
The thing about growth is that it is always accompanied by decline and that is not something to be feared or fought against. Show me one example in the natural world where something only grows and never dies, decay is simply the one side of the coin, growth being the other. The sooner we acknowledge and accept that the less unrealistic expectations we will have about our economy's in general.
@@jameslong9921 So, you don’t fear contraction in the economy? What about what is called ‘deflation’ in the monetary system? It appears to me that most all the people “in charge” of the monetary system talk about deflation as if it is the BOoGeYMaN. We can’t be having that! People will lose their jobs and there will be a recession. But it seems to me that’s what we had during the “Financial Crisis” of 2008/2009. Is this what happened during the Great Depression of the 1930’s? But here is something that, during my lifetime I have only ever seen grow, and never come back down. As in, come back down to earth. The National Debt. I’m thinking that at some point, there must be a reckoning of the National Debt. There is no free lunch, the piper must be paid. But our leaders appear to treat it as if it can go to infinity. And something that is never talked about is the fact that this Nation used to be on a Gold Standard, and… what exactly and precisely happened to that Gold Standard? It was done away with Presidential Executive Orders, and nothing else. It didn’t go through Congress and had nothing to do with the will of the people. Why didn’t Congress do anything about the removal of the money that was of the people(government does not have a monopoly on the creation and production of gold). Apparently when it comes to the Gold Standard, Congress is just a potted plant, that sits there and does absolutely nothing. Thanks Congress!/s The reason I hammer on the Gold Standard is, Gold is not Debt. Historically it has been a representation of wealth, not the indigent. And, look what happened to it. Look what happened to our wealth! It has been and is being, turned into Debt. Gold pays the piper and extinguishes debt. But hey, that’s just me. And as I always say(or ask), “What do I know?” 😄 Well, I can say that I know what happened to the Gold Standard!
Well, at least China is not prison, Being as a Chinese for 40 years, I witness the grows of economic from 2002 to 2020, experienced the block of my living community for 2 weeks due to the COVID-19. now we're working hard to cover the economic, the international trade still open but more and more difficult, the west countries are changing the attitude and starting to soucing out of China. So, we (or our government) is try to stimulate the economy no matter by domestic market or one belt one road policy, we hope we can sucess and all of other countries could find a way if their own to have a better , safty life. not by conflict or killing or other violence
@@jlangenberg US government is not allowing Americans to buy or use whatever goods they want, American business are not allowed to do business with whoever they want. So who is a dictator here?
@@DineshTwanabasu when was the last time you bought cocaine? What time must you leave the bar? Government has become a controlling element but if are seriously comparing USA to CCP China I really think you need to spend some time in today’s Hong Kong
@@jlangenberg Don't worry, world is changing and today over 140 Countries has China as the largest trading partner. World is enjoying Chinese goods. Its The US citizens that were not allowed to choose. Again who is dictating its people and companies what to do and not to.
@@CautionBarrierAnother group-think economist! So making everyone's wealth keep shrinking is a great way to make people prosperous and confident about their future? You ought to be awarded the faux "Nobel Prize" they award to economists.
The headline of ‘how’ was really only the focus of maybe 30 seconds of the video. I would have been more interested in exactly how state-owned enterprises are preferenced, how exactly CCCP moves in the pandemic and economy broadly are spooking investors and consumers. Instead, it was a bit of a hodgepodge of general political economy analysis, spread a bit thin. Although still interesting.
Meanwhile let's talk about how Scholtz's democracy is bringing prosperity to Germany's economy, and how Biden's freedom is improving American's living standards.
Without secure property rights, due process, core civil liberties, and peaceful transfers of power between parties, a country cannot be a fully-developed economy. China was always going to face the choice between relaxing the power of the Party or stagnation - and they have chosen stagnation.
China has a surplus of hard currency reserve, probably more than any country in the world. Why FDI will be the main deciding factor in their future prospect as far as they can keep their competitiveness?
Because they'd also be spending it just as fast. China's capital controls means its main value globally lies in being able to liquidate into USD or EUR even more worthless currencies like Argentine Pesos -- CNY itself isn't widely trusted to hold its value and be worthy to collect.
the western media is trying to summon the investers to pull out of China, actually Chinese govt is not concerned about that, China now is not that much depended on FDI TBH, if you dont invest, then Chinese capitals will share the growth, as long as the production efficiency remains high, cost of manufacture is relatively low, i say China will continue to have trade surplus and gradually become richer, with or without foriegn investment. so im not sure DW has positive or negative influence to investers at the end of the day.
Excellent work. I have been following China’s progress and you have nailed it. The economy, the real estate crisis, the demographics, and the psychology behind Xi’s greed to keep his power. Also the view that China’s best times needed to be celebrated! 💯
To say that 4.6% growth is bad is weird. We would kill for that in Europe. With that said, considering how Chinese institutions work, every number should be taken with huge grain of salt.
Remember though, rates of growth can have widely different significant for different economies. Most European economies are already developed, so a growth rate higher than 0% represents stability, a growth rate above say 2% would be impressive. For China, a developing economy, higher growth rates of above 5% must be maintained to continue development and reach a developed status. A slagging growth rate for a developing country means stagnation and decreases the countries chance of reaching a developed status in a timely manner, meaning they could become economically trapped or even back-slide.
![Coheed and Cambria - Searching for Tomorrow [Official Video]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/hDsYGLbmadg/mqdefault.jpg)
Just the idea that you can force companies to sign agreements that hand over all their customer data to the the government on one hand and then be surprised when the rest of the world stops buying and investing in those companies. It’s juvenile
It’s their system and it works
Isn't US want rTikktok do the same?
@@mengreat6982 divestiture. If feds wanted data from American companies, the companies can always tell them to sod off, see Apple.
U.S. does that too. This can 't be the factor.
@adolft_official Fifty Cent Army says hi.
Many Chinese people were buying and flipping real estate properties,
but that sector has cratered, leaving many people holding the bags.
It is important to understand that in China, people who can flip houses or own multiple houses are at least the wealthy groups in the middle class, and only when the price of this industry comes down can it really benefit ordinary people to own homes
I guess you don't pay much attention to the housing issue in China. Since 2016, Xi has been trying to wean himself off real estate, and now it is just paying off.
Normal people can't own any other equities.
@@letsRegulateSociopaths 😅
Liked this format. Just the right amount of concise and analyst insight with minimal drama. Greetings from Spain.
It spews nonsense from the beginning. FDI to China last year was over USD 150 billion. How could it be 33 billion?
LOL, look at how the USA kills its allies' economy today while ExxonMobil always hits a new world record on net profit every time the US Democratic party wins the US presidential election. LOL
I love DW. Simply superb journalism!
Haaaahaaaa! 😂 if YOU say so.
The wonderful Chinese culture and people deserve freedom. That's the way the economy will grow.
I knew China was headed for tough times when I started to hear this wolf warrior silliness.
China 0 recession
China 0 inflation
Usa recession
Uk recession
France recession
Germany recessing
India recession
Taiwan recession
@@zacksmith5963 You might be right Zack. When no one has a job and no one has money you might not get a recession. Good thinking.
@@JohnDoe-tw8es awesome so u agree that u don't have a job lol
@@zacksmith5963 No there are no jobs in the west at all. Everyone is on the street looking for food and work. Most people are emigrating to China as it is so good there with Xi.
@@JohnDoe-tw8es which country is named west ?
Also yes alot of people migrate to and from china . No one migrates to india though
Try again .
If you cannot have a objective judgement of Chinese economy, reality will.
Exactly. That's why China is doomed.
The reason why China is in trouble is the US is scared and had to halt foreign investment and use protectionism.
US being evil af yet again
you mean the stock indices right?
@@garycmli The stock index does not perfectly match with the economy.
@@garycmli It spews nonsense from the beginning. FDI to China last year was over USD 150 billion. How could it be 33 billion? Just because China invested over USD120 billion overseas last year, then FDI to China was the difference between the investment absorbed and that going out? By this way of calculation, the US would have negative FDI figures.
Don't see the survey but can say the coverage was well put together, easy to understand, and more importantly, hugely informative and relevant to global concerns for all.
Thank you DW!
You tell the truth.
Good show. I love this new program
China has fallen into the "middle income trap". China should have developed its domestic market as it developed its manufacturing sector. But now the cost of Chinese labor is higher than that in Vietnam and India; so foreign investment is leaving Earth's largest prison. Xi Jinping is worsening a bad situation: he threatens war with Taiwan; he tightens his grip on power; he prolongs the problems which were caused by the bursting of the real estate bubble (and spreads the problems to the banking sector); he pours money into the already excessively large manufacturing sector; he continues to pour money into useless infrastructure projects; he scares away foreign investors; ... the list is almost endless.
One of the reasons that so much money was poured into infrastructure is to inflate GDP figures (and to nourish the middle class worker ofcourse). Local governments are responsible for GDP growth and accepting money from Beijing to build useless bridges is an easy way to meet the target
Infrastructure are useless, US citizens will totally agree with u😂
@@LouiseChong-xk5xp -- The poor province of Guizhou has as many km of highways as Japan has. Money and resources are being wasted in order to reach Xi Jinping's 5 percent annual GDP growth.
@@LouiseChong-xk5xp Totaly disagree! Roads/interstates, bridges, airports, shipping ports are all government (state & national) investments. Sports stadiums are useless. There is a reason that the richest US state/cities are on the east and west coast of the USA; they have ports of entry.
@@CasperChicago but when I visited, stadiums are well maintained, meanwhile I have to endure pee smell and flying rubbish at subway. Flying plastic bag on the road is a norm while riding car😬 remembered my first visit, I was like omg, it is totally gta
Wherever China 🇨🇳 mentioned
Chinese bots came ✅
That was excellent. Thank you for providing such an accessible view of the Chinese situation. Really. Well done.
Excellent overview and insight.
Thank you DW for the great documentary.
😂1990. The Economist. China's economy has come to
a
halt.
1996. The Economist. China's economy will face a
hard
landing
1998. The Economist: China's economy entering a
dangerous period of sluggish growth.
1999. Bank of Canada: Likelihood ofahard landing
for
the Chinese economy.
2000. Chicago Tribune: China currency move nails
hard
landing risk coffin.
2001. Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas: A hard landingin
China.
2002. Westchester University: China Anxiously Seeks
a
Soft Economic Landing
2003. KWR International: How to find a soft landing in
China.
2004. The Economist: The great fall of China?
2005. Nouriel Roubini: The Risk of a Hard Landingin
China
2006. International Economy: Can China Achieve a
Soft
Landing?
2007.TIME:Is China's Economy Overheating? Can
China
avoid ahard landing?
2008. Forbes: Hard Landing In China?
2009 Fortune: China's hard landing China must find a
way to recover.
2010. Nouriel Roubini: Hard landing coming in China.
2011. Business Insider: A Chinese
2012. American Interest: Dismal Economic News
from
China: A Hard Landing
2013 Zero Hedge: A Hard Landing In China
2014. CNBC: A hard landing in China.
201 5 Forbes: Congratulations, J You Got Yourself A
Chinese Hard Landing
2016. The Economist: Hard landing looms for China
2017. National Interest: Is China's Economy Going To
Crash?
2020. Economics Explained: The Scary Solution to the
Chinese Debt Crisis
2021. Global Economics: Has China's Downfall
Started?
2022. Cathie Wood: China's COLLAPSE Is FAR Worse
Than Vou Think
Chinabots alone count for 2% of China’s economy.
"without underpaying their workers" ummm do you understand why consumption is so low??
If the CCP authorities really cared about the Chinese economy and the hundreds of millions of poor people in China, they would create laws that made rich people spent most of their time wondering the country side looking for cheap things and food to buy, as opposed to buying houses, cars, and expensive meals in high-demand countries like Canada, Australia or the rest of the west, so that China's economy would rebound in a consumption-driven way. Instead of looking for the CCP's next target to bully after Hong Kong, Taiwan, and the Philippines.
Chinese policy makers are frustrated consumer are not spending when Chinese had the very high saving (2.5 trillions). In the meantime, Chinese wages are improving in recent years, forcing many Chinese entrepreneurs to relocate low wages industries to lower income neighborhood.
volume or price index?
German companies underpaying workers around the world not the government's did you know about this?
It depends on relative pay and in the high tech sector factory workers are being paid more than waiters and service industry personnel. Obviously if you compare to European and US standards almost the entire country is underpaid… but the cost of living is much lower
I have been paying a lot of attention to the Chinese economy and equity markets. DW has put together the best synopsis of the current state of affairs as I've seen in a short 22 minutes. They played the story right down the middle of the fairway. Great job !
THATS THE PROBLEM, YOU WORRY MORE ABOUT CHINA ECONOMY, WHILE YOUR ECONOMY GOES DOWN THE TOILET.
Why would I invest in a country where I would worry about my money coming back.
yes, why should any sovereign fund keep money in the EU if they can freeze it and threaten to seize it ?
Thanks DW, you're the best 👍👍
Ok trollm🤣🤣
Excellent video and very informative. I appreciate the diverse perspectives given and the unbiased approach. Well done DW.
No company wants to come, all want to leave, splendid.
if that; 's what he did and what; 's happening in China, then the West should be happy. why bother then? LOL
7 months later.....
Apple Starbucks Google etc etc still eager to stay in China
@@fongponto hehe,you do well in journalism
Well done! You are combining all sorts of facts to explain China's increasing aggressive behaviour towards the rest of the world. But the west is focused on minimizing China's influence on domestic consumption by production . The Americans, Europians, Canadians, Indians and Japanese, are all focused on domestic production/ consumption , to avoid being reliant of changing CCP government Nationalism.
Great reporting
Bushit
Is Xi hitting busses now?
this sounds pretty sensible and rather accurate, my gut feeling is that this is an accurate analysis. thanks for the actually interesting and informative journalism :)
@sandponics oh well. too bad 😆
Appreciate the more balanced review. The problem, but also the strength, and how it puts it not as a win-lose game (western vs. China), but as one connected world.
There are similarities between China and Japan. The declining birth/fertility rate, the set up for a ‘lost decade’ and economic stagnation. However Japan have a much better capacity to deal with this issue as it’s already set up itself as an advanced economy and they’re also a liberal democracy that is part of Western Alliance in Asia alongside Australia, South Korea, New Zealand and maybe even India. In conclusion China’s crises could be even more dire than what Japan has experienced.
Only superficial demographic similarities. Japan managed to get rich before it got old. And while it is old, Japan doesn't have the gender disparity that plagues China. Millions of Chinese men will never marry or leave descendants. This has profound implications for a society schooled in Confucian ideals.
@@pervertt😂😂😂China 0 recession
China 0 inflation
Usa recession
Uk recession
France recession
Germany recessing
India recession
Taiwan recession
@@jacksmith-mu3eechinas real gdp is likely shrinking. China's population shrinking. China has deflation which is worse than inflation. USA economy grew 2.3% last year.
@@SelfProclaimedEmperor Agreed . China lied
They claimed their economy is rising by 5.2% , that's a lie . Real growth is 50% . Even usa is under chinese loans
U are correct . West is a country that definitely exist on planet pluto
No child policy in usa is making sure that west a country that definitely exists in your mom bedroom 😂😂😂😂 gets chinese exports
@@SelfProclaimedEmperor deflation doesn't shrink economy . Inflation does
Great, in-depth and informative journalism!
Bot
@@jacksmith-mu3ee no u
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Two years into office, President Donald Trump authorised the Central Intelligence Agency to launch a clandestine campaign on Chinese social media aimed at turning public opinion in China against its government, according to former US officials with direct knowledge of the highly classified operation.
Three former officials told Reuters that the CIA created a small team of operatives who used bogus internet identities to spread negative narratives about Xi Jinping’s government while leaking disparaging intelligence to overseas news outlets. The effort, which began in 2019, has not been previously reported.
According to these economy experts, the higher the house prices, the better. No matter if it's only 10% of the wealthiest individual that can buy them, it doesn't matter if most of the housing money are leveraged by banks, as long as the house price goes up, everything is fine. Yeah, that will work great with the demographics of 50 years from now.
That was exactly how China used to think. Now they have been rudely awakened!
Nice to stay in Austin,JB, good choice, Mr Loo! 🎉congrats!
Your show is # 1 no dought 👍👍
There is also a fundamental problem that companies IP is stolen once they enter China. The car industry is a very good example
Very Good and Detailed Analysis, Many Many thanks DW!!
BS lies, Reality is a lot different, China is in space with its own space station look up at night, and you see it, China has changed the world for good in the 80s a video used to cost over 100 dollars few people could afford a phone, thanks to the Chinese we all can afford things that used to be only for the few.
Great report, thank you.
Great show and I love it.
Excellent work. Keep it up!
DW always has very fair and balanced reporting on most topics. Breath of fresh air!!!
Breath of fresh air for ignorants. In reality it's just conforming your bias.
Really, where is the scholar with the counter point to authoritarianism means bad economy? At least bring one guy that makes a counter argument. The argument was that authoritarian means too much control means bad. But it seems to me that the Chinese measures has been fairly restrained in reining in real-estate bubble, attempting to reduce debt, resisting large stimulus that got it into trouble since 2008 and cracking down on large internet monopolies. I think maybe the last one has some political motive to it too but also a reasonable economic justification. On the other hand, US government also intervenes massively in its economy by pumping out huge stimuluses every time there is a crisis.
Balanced? They are leaning left
@@ff6790 Nope. Instead, DW seems to hv their own universe. They report about that.
It is definitely not a balanced report. All the people interviewed agree with each other, which of course is also the editorial line of DW.
4:00 "Property down"? Half price and less in prime location is called a "free fall"!
30-40%, not half
We're not yet at half but let's see
@@michaelgothenburg364 You are right, but as a prop owner wanting to sell and cannot close with 40% off, then we are effectively at 50%! Even then we don't know if we can close a deal...
@@cyberslim7955 I have heard of some sales at 30-40% off, I have not heard of any at 50%. I still think 30-40% is quite realistic, with many people not accepting to sell at all. Definitely a pretty bad situation over there
I can understand them not wanting to use the term, but... yeah, can't argue with your point, that's bad news.
One issue with FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) that never gets mentioned is that China includes ALL profits earned by foreign enterprises and deposited in Chinese banks. So this is NOT direct new investment, but captive capital. And it truly is captive since the Chinese government does not allow these foreign companies to repatriate their profits back to their home countries or leave China in any way.
what about iphone? do you think apple is controled by CHINA?
Wonderful insight into a very complex issue
Excellent episode.
Fear of investing. Fear of going to jail forever.
Germany has gone into recession for the second year in a row LOL
I just spent 2 months living on mainland china and the economy is fine! the country is booming, my partner left her job and had another good job within 1 week, one of the safest places i have ever been!
I was just there 5 weeks and feel the same way.
So the empty mall, failed real state is NOT true? The newly graduated can’t get a job is false as well?
That the property sector has tanked is no problem? New apartments are sold at less than 50% of pre-pandemic levels prices doesn’t affect people? 😂 many many home owners had to borrow tons of money from family members just to be able to pay the downpayment for a new apartment, and now it’s worth less than half of the original price from just a few years ago and affecting millions of people. The ripple effects of these negative equity home loans are wrecking the economy right now. No problem my axx
@@Janjust1617 like most young people straight out of university they want a job their qualified for and thats not always possible no matter where yr from, empty malls here too the so many vacant shops who can afford 3k rent a week
@@ddnn974 yep and i can rent a brand new studio apartment for 400 dollars US a month i can buy dinner for $1.50 i can use the clean safe subway, i can walk around at night without any hassles,i didnt see one homeless person they get free housing, women can retire at 50 work a part time job and pay 0 tax, kids and retirees get free public transport, sure a few dodgy developers ripped a lot of people off who are now in jail
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great show. thank you
Excellent presentation. Very informative
Great work doing this show
China's GDP growth is now "only" 5% per annum. Sanctions have been very successful. Against France and especially against Germany.
LOL
If you had known anything about how China works, you would know that the numbers are manipulated at all levels, not only the top, and that not even the top knows the exact numbers
If 5.2%-growth is killing, then -0.3% is dead.
You need to add a discount to the numbers China reported. Do you believe an economy with 5.2% growth rate having huge number of people escaping to other countries for economic opportunities?
@@brotherbig4651 Both are completely different things. People want to leave because west still has higher wages.
@@dreadfulbodyguard7288 The problem is most of them did not want to leave before. You never seen this huge number of Chinese crossing the border in the past.
@@brotherbig4651 Illegal migration is increased because now there are well established routes to enter US illegally from China.
If you look at official data of high-skilled legal immegration, it has gone down significantly.
@@dreadfulbodyguard7288 The route has always been there. Nobody invented it. It didn’t draw that much attention because the Chinese didn’t need it.
The high skills legal immigrants are up by a huge amount. Simply check how many joined the H1B visa lottery in the past two years, and how long it takes to get a green card if you were born in China.
Amazing report!
Very thoughtful piece. Thanks and keep up with the good work 👍🏼
Actually Chinese households were able to keep their homes, and not be thrown onto the street as in the _non-authoritarian_ US.
the current auctioning properties in China stops count at 4 million. In other words, 4 million households are thrown out of their properties
@@OnMusicSoon1 Nope.
ya homes.that were barely finished with no water no electricity. You call that home?
@@OnMusicSoon1 Real estate allows a lot of people to put their property in a house, in fact, many people have more than one house. Almost every Chinese family has a house, either in the countryside or in the city. Now many people bought their homes in 2019, but because of the decline in house prices, they are not willing to pay the installment. So they don't want to pay even if they don't live. I haven't seen anything like it around here. Pretty much everyone has their own house.
Homeless China is 19.2 (for 10.000 people)
Homeless US is 19.5 (for 10.000 people)
So you are technically correct that China is doing better .... but just slightly.
have been hearing a lot about Chinese debt and economic collapse on many youtube channels but nothing is actually happening. How come China is still giving loans to different countries for its BRI projects with its economic crises?
Recuse it is simply not true.
Next-gen American population will decline, too, if wealth inequality is not addressed.
wealth inequality has evolved in America to be more of a serfdom-so as long as people believe they can become billionaires and are thrown enough bones, the inequality will persist until the ponzi scheme that is wall street collapses-the real hazard of this inequality is the evolution of the oligarchy-mini kings and their 'royal' dynasties. Welcome to the Gilded age pt.2
If I were a Western country, I'd rather worry about myself, nothing to look forward to.
Just to mention, as China develops, it can no longer have such growth rates. No country does.
That's why they've been letting people in through the mexcio boarder, to increase population & GDP potential.
Alot of these problems are happening in the USA. However we are already dealing with it and it's something we can handle.
Great show keep it up
When you have a debt driven economy that focuses on the political vs the market, this is what inevitably happens. You can't fool the market. And the market is the ultimate voice of the people.
Are you describing the US and Japan?
@@MishkataPingvinhe’s describing liberty, that’s essentially what a free market is all about.
By that logic I think they have been fooling the market pretty well in the last decades.
@@goeleal1520 There's an end to all things, and China is at the end of its money printing rope. If you are unaware of its deficit and local debit issues, then you haven't been paying attention. But don't believe me, just wait a year or two and read this receipt.
@@goeleal1520 yeah, it’s called total government subsidization and cheap labor.
🇩🇪🇩🇪Sensacionalism at its worst 🇩🇪🇩🇪 The Enlightenment ministry at its best🇩🇪🇩🇪🇩🇪🇩🇪🇩🇪🇩🇪
Who could have guess that autocratic rule would wreck an economy😂😂
And Putin is still playing 4D chess! :D
Yep, the CCP is between a rock and a hard place...either increasing exports ('dumping'), that other countries are now resisting, or increasing household income & domestic consumption, leading to the rising political expectations of a more 'capitalist'-style economy.. aka, fears of another "Tiannamen Square".😢
I wonder how much the CIA paid for this ad.
China was previously going so strong and also had hundreds of thousands of tourists bringing in $$$ to the country. A lot of that is no more ... that tourist money and foreign investment appears to be much decreased. Just look at how much money tourists bring into Japan and Thailand for comparison. I read it's $32 Billion dollars for Thailand alone from tourism!
@@carefulconsumer8682Yep, and its also not helping that meanwhile Xi is still unwilling to curtail any of his ambitious *_spending_* on all these 'yuge' mega-projects, like building whole islands in the S. China Sea, the international Belt & Road Initiative, aggressive spending on the military and vanity Space Missions, as well as dozens of other project$, located in _other_ countries... and all in service not to bettering China's people, but instead to increasing Xi's single-minded goal of.establishing the _international_ Leadership and 'Dominance'_ to which he feels _'entitled'._
I love and trust DW programs. If anything, I would add something about the tremendous environmental/economic challenges China is facing as climate change makes flooding and drought fearsome. Other issues that I would like to consider on an economic basis is the cultural bias to respect authority, education, and cooperation with social efforts; I don't know how important these are, but they seem like important dynamics.
That's what I meant to say, I read your comments after posting mine. You said it better.
Very good program. The importance of lidership to generate trust and hope with less control.
One thing which wasn't discussed: The Chinese working age population has been falling since 2015 - this followed decades of rapid growth in the workforce. From here on in Chinese economic growth will require productivity growth and/or an increasing participation rate.
THEY USING MORE ROBOTICS IN THEIR FACTORIES
@icet6665 They might be, but Chinese labour productivity growth has still been trending down for decades - currently at 4.2%. So, with a shrinking workforce, economic growth will be below this unless the participation rate can be increased.
@@AK-ej5ml Chinese skilled labor force is still at 200 million and highly skilled work force is at 60 million. Even with a demographic issue their productivity is increased by 20% over the last four years. In term of industrial output the growth has been average about 11.5 from 1990 to 2023 over the 33 year period.
This would be a definite problem if China was already developed, but China has an untapped and forgotten population who have never been part of Chinese economic miracle who are a ready and waiting resource?
@timmyg44 True, that population is there, so there is potential - however in recent years, even with the shrinking population, it doesn't look like they are joining the labour force. But often this sort of thing moves slowly, so hopefully China finds a way to increase the participation rate.
Xi also doesn't want a internal consumption driven economy. Since that would increase wealth and increase the Chinese middle class or as Xi calls it 'weakness'. This makes the Chinese population more difficult to control and so Xi is more comfortable with China staying or become increasing poor than risk any loss of control.
@sandponics I agree with this quote. Maybe Xi should follow it.
Yes, he does, but you can not develop an internal economy in the face of hardcore supply side economics.
😂😂 you guys talk about chairman Xi as if you know t
Him so well😂😂 good luck
There's nothing strange about this. The CCP is most concerned about its regime security. If it feels that his regime is unsafe, let alone economic development, it will not hesitate to sacrifice half of the country's people!
They're trying to lift the other parts of the country out of poverty that's why they're not stimulating growth in property. They are also forcing companies to be more charitable. Yes heavy handed in controlling companies, but with a one party system they are not beholden to corporations. They don't care about the corporations, they're trying to have more even distribution of wealth. While in the west barely anyone can afford anything. If you read their mandate that's what they're trying to do
@u: Xi lifting the people out of poverty by employing them on bot farms.
Scott Kennedy saying they should celebrate China's economic rejuvenation is ridiculous. The CCP traded China's future for short term growth. And by every model I've seen, it's outlook is nothing to celebrate.
Great coverage.
Thank you to DW to worry about China's decline for the past 40 years plus predicting a collapse. Don't worry we Chinese are used to poverty and we are actually doing well, maybe you should worry about yourself and your economy. Our growth of 5% is still better than yours any day, so don't worry about us.
I don't think a well educated person would use the phrase of "killing" economics. There are ups and downs but none of any economics in the history has ever been killed.
ya, "killing" is the word usually used by intention seeking youtube channel, quite cheap.
The quality of medias nowadays. Easiest job today as they can make story without going local for interviews
Sinophobic media bias.
Western media: Genocide, killing, They think of the most sensationalist clickbait words to get you engaged.
Incorrect. Japan entering the Second World War was due to economics.
The fall of the Roman was due to economics. Can give you examples of dozens more if you wish.
So, where is the BRICS currency?
In fantasy land where it has always been 😂
thank you.
What about critical analysis of German Economy which is already under recession by DW.
The fact the Chinese economy still has extensive coverage in Western media shows it’s still strong and a threat to West. Who bothers to report India economy?
@jntiger1981 Threat lol, it’s the west who made china wealthier in the first place
Why is everyone all of the sudden so concerned about the Chinese economy and living condition of Chinese people? Do we not have enough economical and social issues in our own countries? Is it because if we point out problems with China, it makes us feel better about our own problems? Shouldn't we be trying to fix our own society, rather than worry about China?
Because China's economy is very important for pretty much every country, including yours! I understand your point, we should definitely focus on our own economy but we live in a international relations world. If China has any trade deals with your country, China 's stability matters
Because everyone here loves China, even the one profess to be anti-china, they all want China to succeed hence their concern. China's success will their success!
Most people can think about more than one thing at a time; also, what happens in China affects most other industrialized countries.
@nicoledonald3858, @andrewcrowder4958, those are pretty thin logic to avoid focusing on and fixing our own issues
Dont you think we are all connected by now? I mean whats happeing in Russia, China or the US… it affects other regions too.
The West is of course happy about this, for better or for worse, rich Chinese are bringing them money overseas and investing in West locales where they believe prices will only increase. This has caused property value in immigrant-heavy jurisdictions to increase rapidly over the past several decades. Countries like Canada, Australia, etc.
true
but these countries are now regulating chinese purchases of real estate (particularly in my country of Canada) much more strictly, so it is no longer going to be a 'safe haven' for rich chinese and their capital flight from their broken system
They touched on it in the video, but a prolonged downturn in China will be particularly harsh on Australia too.
China is Australia's largest trading partner, accounting for $125bn AUD annually - 27% of all foreign trade. Although the 2 country's trade balances are almost neutral with each other.
So as a result, the longer the downturn in China, the slower trade velocity may become impacting Australia's economy.
Am Australian and pay close attention to this.
But when china price drop, u people say china is collapsing. So your price hike should be a good sign😂
The Soviet Union industrialied quickly, last century and living standards rose . However, by the end of the 70's there was little improvement , each year . This contributed to the rise of reformers like Gorbachev.
This analysis is on the money.
But we’re talking about a country that is raised hundreds of millions of people into the middle class in my lifetime. Seems like an OK economy.
Economists have been talking about collapse for decades, (remember Gordeon Chang's book 'The coming collapse of China' published in 2001?) with it's economy only becoming stronger and stronger.
@@youngjoexu5435 Chang is NOT an economist, he was trained in law. Economists have not be predicting the collapse of the Chinese economy, those doing the predicting are usually political pundits who have little understanding of economics.
Its easy to grow your economy when you are selling everything below the cost of capital and simultaneously leverage up every level of government spending with huge amounts of zero interest debt while in a real estate bubble. Until the music stops.
Ask yourself one question: would you choose to hold an apartment in Shanghai over that of New York, Paris, London, Zurich, Tokyo?
No, you would not. For reasons that are obvious to all. Even the Chinese. So Capital has started to act accordingly. Its leaving.
they are trying to conive with Chinese nationals living in foreign lands to compete with the local businesses in the goal of monopolizing the market.. like in our country some Chinese national will be able to sell an expensive component at a very low price because they are able to get it in china at a very low price and without the need to pay upfront.. I'm not sure how they are so confident that the Chinese living abroad will be sure to pay them back but maybe that's why there are pseudo Chinese police in Canada or in other countries.. I'm not sure maybe just my conspiracy theorists. maybe I'm crazy 😂 but there's alot of Chinese businessmen able to start a business with almost nothing on their pockets..
i will easily choose Apartment in Shanghai over NYC, ive been living in both, at least Shanghai is perfectly safe, i never walked home after 11pm in NYC, no matter how close i was to home, i will take a cab, i dont want some desperate homeless people threaten me from the dark alleys. my life is precious.
Chinese work hard and efficient to produce more with less, but somehow it’s a sin, because it’s “producing below the cost of capital” according to you.
I have never heard that being hard working and smart is a bad thing. Jealousy is over flowing in your heart.
A lot of people would love to hold a real estate in Shanghai, but they can’t afford it, you are an example.
Shanghai is safer, cheaper ( outside buying property) and has way better infrastructure than NYC or London. You need to travel more, not just sitting and imaging things.
Everyday I wake up I give thanks I was born in the US and not China or some other god forsaken place.
Well done presentation of China's past, present and prospects.
Everything said here applies to US, too, and maybe more applicable.
At the same time, house prices have escalated beyond affordability for many young families in the west and food prices have been alarmingly high! China’s railway and public transportation system also puts us to shame. I wouldn’t write them off at this stage.
Only smart one here.
@@TuhunluunBionoid Count yourself into the elite group of 2!
Increased authoritarism is always a bad sign, BUT on the flip side, lack of government regulatons can lead to what we have here in the West, where social media companies perhaps have become more influential than the governments themselves, in either subtle or obvious ways. The West (esp in America) is being dominated by these tech monopolies right now, and we are either blind to or completely ignoring it lol.
The constant push for growth. Surely a nice steadiness is an option
There has to be a “constant infinite growth” when the money that the system is made of, is constantly being debauched, debased, and devalued.
Here in the country that I live in, that is signified by the $35 Trillion National Debt… heading to what? Headed straight for Infinity. How much National Debt should there be? Debt is not wealth. The National Debt should be Zero.
I highly recommend you look into precisely what happened to the Gold Standard and exactly how it was “removed” in the U.S.
It will be interesting for me to see if RUclips removes my post. When I have posted the facts about what happened to the Gold Standard, I’m used to seeing my post completely disappear, with no explanation of why. Here, I have not posted what happened to it. But I am wondering if it will be removed for simply talking about the “Gold Standard”.
This is German state media. Extremely neoliberal, constaly paddling worldwide billionaire interests. GDP is the only measure they are interested in. So what did you expect.
The thing about growth is that it is always accompanied by decline and that is not something to be feared or fought against.
Show me one example in the natural world where something only grows and never dies, decay is simply the one side of the coin, growth being the other. The sooner we acknowledge and accept that the less unrealistic expectations we will have about our economy's in general.
@@jameslong9921 So, you don’t fear contraction in the economy? What about what is called ‘deflation’ in the monetary system? It appears to me that most all the people “in charge” of the monetary system talk about deflation as if it is the BOoGeYMaN. We can’t be having that! People will lose their jobs and there will be a recession. But it seems to me that’s what we had during the “Financial Crisis” of 2008/2009. Is this what happened during the Great Depression of the 1930’s?
But here is something that, during my lifetime I have only ever seen grow, and never come back down. As in, come back down to earth. The National Debt. I’m thinking that at some point, there must be a reckoning of the National Debt. There is no free lunch, the piper must be paid. But our leaders appear to treat it as if it can go to infinity.
And something that is never talked about is the fact that this Nation used to be on a Gold Standard, and… what exactly and precisely happened to that Gold Standard? It was done away with Presidential Executive Orders, and nothing else. It didn’t go through Congress and had nothing to do with the will of the people. Why didn’t Congress do anything about the removal of the money that was of the people(government does not have a monopoly on the creation and production of gold). Apparently when it comes to the Gold Standard, Congress is just a potted plant, that sits there and does absolutely nothing. Thanks Congress!/s
The reason I hammer on the Gold Standard is, Gold is not Debt. Historically it has been a representation of wealth, not the indigent. And, look what happened to it. Look what happened to our wealth! It has been and is being, turned into Debt. Gold pays the piper and extinguishes debt. But hey, that’s just me. And as I always say(or ask), “What do I know?” 😄
Well, I can say that I know what happened to the Gold Standard!
Well, at least China is not prison, Being as a Chinese for 40 years, I witness the grows of economic from 2002 to 2020, experienced the block of my living community for 2 weeks due to the COVID-19. now we're working hard to cover the economic, the international trade still open but more and more difficult, the west countries are changing the attitude and starting to soucing out of China. So, we (or our government) is try to stimulate the economy no matter by domestic market or one belt one road policy, we hope we can sucess and all of other countries could find a way if their own to have a better , safty life. not by conflict or killing or other violence
Deflation restricts consumption, but it's even worse for manufacturers and businesses, who would see their profits falling even if consumption grew.
China shouldn’t be expecting to sell EV’s in USA.
lol, they'll be building them in Mexico, and selling it anyway, as made in Mexico
@@f1racer908 Owner is Chinese and trade deals can be abridged
@@jlangenberg US government is not allowing Americans to buy or use whatever goods they want, American business are not allowed to do business with whoever they want. So who is a dictator here?
@@DineshTwanabasu when was the last time you bought cocaine? What time must you leave the bar? Government has become a controlling element but if are seriously comparing USA to CCP China I really think you need to spend some time in today’s Hong Kong
@@jlangenberg Don't worry, world is changing and today over 140 Countries has China as the largest trading partner. World is enjoying Chinese goods. Its The US citizens that were not allowed to choose.
Again who is dictating its people and companies what to do and not to.
allowing the enemy to control the means of production.
Well the West have allowed the enemy to control the media..
Inflation being "healthier" than deflation??!! Only an economist could say that!
Tell me you don't study economics without telling me you don't study economics.
@@CautionBarrierAnother group-think economist! So making everyone's wealth keep shrinking is a great way to make people prosperous and confident about their future? You ought to be awarded the faux "Nobel Prize" they award to economists.
Deflation is a spiral you see
Political stability and openness is the foundation of building a great economy.
More videos with this format but on a range of topics 👍 hello 👋 from the UK
The headline of ‘how’ was really only the focus of maybe 30 seconds of the video. I would have been more interested in exactly how state-owned enterprises are preferenced, how exactly CCCP moves in the pandemic and economy broadly are spooking investors and consumers. Instead, it was a bit of a hodgepodge of general political economy analysis, spread a bit thin. Although still interesting.
Agree. Not so many facts.
Half a year later. China's economy is still alive and kickin.
Was a nice 6 months.
@@gregleavitt1255 depends
@gregleavitt1255 nicer then usa europe uk india
@@zacksmith5963 Don't get cocky, China's in a world of hurt on every front.
@@gregleavitt1255 heyyy hill Billy. I live in usa as well . And you should learn your place .
China isn't affected by your tantrums
Meanwhile let's talk about how Scholtz's democracy is bringing prosperity to Germany's economy, and how Biden's freedom is improving American's living standards.
@@d.a.t.7723 看得出来你家里人4完了
@@d.a.t.7723 cia bot spotted
Without secure property rights, due process, core civil liberties, and peaceful transfers of power between parties, a country cannot be a fully-developed economy. China was always going to face the choice between relaxing the power of the Party or stagnation - and they have chosen stagnation.
I think this is a good video about the economie of China.
Taiwan's constitution also regards the entire China as under Taiwan. So they actually are in agreement.
Agreed . Both are 1 under ccp though
China has a surplus of hard currency reserve, probably more than any country in the world. Why FDI will be the main deciding factor in their future prospect as far as they can keep their competitiveness?
Because they'd also be spending it just as fast. China's capital controls means its main value globally lies in being able to liquidate into USD or EUR even more worthless currencies like Argentine Pesos -- CNY itself isn't widely trusted to hold its value and be worthy to collect.
the western media is trying to summon the investers to pull out of China, actually Chinese govt is not concerned about that, China now is not that much depended on FDI TBH, if you dont invest, then Chinese capitals will share the growth, as long as the production efficiency remains high, cost of manufacture is relatively low, i say China will continue to have trade surplus and gradually become richer, with or without foriegn investment. so im not sure DW has positive or negative influence to investers at the end of the day.
China also has the highest gross debt of any country in the world, having overtaken the US.
@@theonlycaulfield usa is under chinese debt
@@jacksmith-mu3ee Less than 10% of US government debt in the form of treasury securities are held by China.
Pooh bear has been too full of himself, akin to Putler.
Child.
Excellent work. I have been following China’s progress and you have nailed it. The economy, the real estate crisis, the demographics, and the psychology behind Xi’s greed to keep his power. Also the view that China’s best times needed to be celebrated! 💯
To say that 4.6% growth is bad is weird. We would kill for that in Europe. With that said, considering how Chinese institutions work, every number should be taken with huge grain of salt.
Remember though, rates of growth can have widely different significant for different economies.
Most European economies are already developed, so a growth rate higher than 0% represents stability, a growth rate above say 2% would be impressive. For China, a developing economy, higher growth rates of above 5% must be maintained to continue development and reach a developed status. A slagging growth rate for a developing country means stagnation and decreases the countries chance of reaching a developed status in a timely manner, meaning they could become economically trapped or even back-slide.