China plans to boost its military spending by 7.2% this year as Xi Jinping continues to modernize the armed forces. Read more about Beijing’s plan to continue to build up its military: on.wsj.com/3uWnu1K
My opinion is China is making the world think they are gearing up for a major war but all they are doing is making the US spend more and more bleeding us dry from different angles from the fentanyl crisis to us spending more and more on our military budget because of the fears of China’s Power aggression in the Asian sea
Everyone reading this keep in mind, this is the military spending REPORTED by the CCP. Our intelligence agencies believe that there is MUCH more being spent in secret, in order to hide their buildup. The Chinese are now estimated to be spending more than the Americans on military. The Americans and they allies are going to need to increase spending in the coming years to contain this new evil.
In the Pentagon's underground facilities there is a secret room where trainees play Age of Empires II, Civilization VI, Victoria II, Europa Universalis, Star Craft etc...
😅Same. Found this worth sharing. If China does pull off an invasion of Taiwan, could they do it by 2050 if not 2027? By Quinton Smith China had "invaded" Taiwan in 1946 and renamed "Japanese colony - Taiwan" to "Taiwan Province of China"! (If the liberation of colonies can be called an "invasion", then the evil Western colonists must have become "saints". The emancipation of the British Colony-America seemed superfluous) Taiwan Provincial Government Office Building, located at No. 1, Shengfu Road, Nantou City, Nantou County, Taiwan You can check whether Taiwan's constitution says "Constitution of the Republic of China"? Is Taiwan’s airline called “China Airlines”? If Taiwan is not part of China, why is Taiwan's civil aviation company called "China Airlines"? Is Taiwan’s Steel called “China Steel Corporation”? If Taiwan is not part of China, why is Taiwan’s steel called “China Steel Corporation”? The Taiwan question is China's internal affair, a legacy of China's civil war, and a family matter for the Chinese, and has nothing to do with white-skinned, blue-eyed, speaking with a forked tongue Yanks. -CaiLei Even if you don’t understand Chinese, the Republic of CHINA says it all. Btw, the ROC still claims the administrations rights to ALL of CHINA, so the PRC is only forced to fight an illegitimate puppet regime propped up entirely by the USA that try to subjugate the entire Chinese population under USA control. CHINA STEEL Advanced High Strength Steels According to the study undertaken by the World Steel Association (worldsteel), the use of AHSS to replace the plain carbon steel can reduce the body weight by 25%, save 5.1% fuel consumption, and reduce 5.7% greenhouse gas emissions ... Taiwan is in China, and there are China’s symbols everywhere. Can you succeed in de-Chinaizing it? 🤣
This is a great game, I bet if mighty Afghan army, which was armed to the teeth with US tax payers hard-earned money, had played this game, they would probably not to make themselves disappearing when Taliban showed up on their door steps.
@@汤圆-y7f As an Afghan Army Officer, I confirm that in 2021 when the Taliban taking over Afghanistan we 100% successfully defeated them in the board game several times (Theoretically).
More like - please don't get involved US. The Chinese are fighting for what they think as an integral part of China, while the US would be fighting for chips - is that really so worth it to destroy the global economy over? How about instead just boosting domestic prodction or even god forbid, be a trade partner with China
Or nice, my comments have been deleted (I didn't swear and didn't say anything bad btw). You don't want to hear the truth ? No problems. Keep living in nirvana. But don't forget that one day real life will sting painfully. But it will be too late.
As a Taiwanese, I just want the status quo. No "unification", no "independence", no war. China, don't invade us, it's gonna be a lose-lose for everyone.
@@Utube1024 They won't, and any peaceful reunification under "one country, two systems" ended when Beijing broke their promises to not touch Hong Kong's government and press until 2047. They reneged on that quickly, pretty much all of Hong Kong protested, and pretty much all of Hong Kong's press -- long awarded as one of the most independent and best journalistic press in the world -- was locked up and put in jail. The Taiwanese watching that will never believe the "one country, two systems" lie.
But China need it as it is. The real danger for Taiwan is power struggle with US on Pacific scene. If conflict erupts the island can not stay safe and will turn into a war zone. Just looking at map you don't need to be strategist it will be overwhelmed in no time considering China quickly is closing the gap in military technology with US.
@HDiver-ru7ru china is no longer closing the gap with the United states, the US has already started pulling away again. The only significant advance the chinese have made in the last 1-2 years is the "j36" prototype "stealth 6th gen fighter" (it is none of those things) meanwhile the US already flew their equivalent 3 years ago just didnt show anyone because theyre an actual professional military... and has since lengthened the gap in the last 2 years with the LRASM XR, Typhon, rapid dragon, LRHW (US first hypersonic missile in service Dec. 2023), Aim174, Aim260, Constellation class, Orca XLuuv, B21, PRSM, 10 different counter drone weapons, MALD, and Mako +2 more hypersonics. Its already over for china
@dalee2419 no, the wargame was already completed and Cancian simply replayed the events. Normally there will be two groups of people, American defense specialists vs people who have studied china and its military. The two groups go through a variety of scenarios and make their conclusions for the US military
I played one of these hexagon turn-based war games a few decades ago. It took more than 30 minutes to set up and over four to eight hours to finish the game. After playing for three hours, it became too boring, a truce was declared and all the pieces go straight back to the box and never to be seen again.
The closest thing I've played that is similar to this game is Axis & Allies. What game is this that they playing or what game closely resembles what they were doing? I'd love to look into this, it might be my new favorite board game.
@@codyelder9201it’s one of those old war games back in the 19th century. Played on a giant map. There are much better version of it now since the longest one (D-Day) took seceral weeks to play out. It is sand table exercise.
oh man, that reminded me of the board game attack, one game in our friend group took weeks to finish. everyone sneaky sneaky making alliances and breaking them the same day. and no1 trusting each other:P when 2 people were just randomly talking other players tried to listen in to hear if we were forging alliances.
funny guy, it looks like boardgames we played in 1980s. But they say they 'Stop' and calculate losses. So they are not rolling dices. It is that calculating thingy that I want to get my hand on and the weapon performance databases.
Exactly. It is impossible to predict accurately how this would go on. How strong and capable Chinese units are? How US Navy will perform since it has not faced any major engagement since WWII? How much pain are the Americans willing to take to defend a small island that they can't even find on the World map? No one knows. I would rather not see this game.
The Ukrainians would have indeed fall in a month if only the US and EU responded by sanction and supplying billions worth of supplies making Russia not able to mobilised troops fully and turn into war economy since it would have destroyed Russian economy. It was due to the sanctions that Russia stopped advancing. Get yourself informed
Espionage and Sabotage of Naval Bases in Singapore and Australia where the US are likely to dock and resupply. There wont be any military presence but remember there many CCP agents, sympatisers and anyone can be paid handsomely by the Chinese to do their bidding.
Because China will consider the intervention of other nations as an act of war. Taiwan is an island and cannot be supplied like Ukraine. To do that, the Chinese navy has to be dealt with and that cannot happen without external military intervention.
with over the top e-sports esque commentary. "the invasion of Taiwan is brought to you by.... Evian... stay ready for war... stay hydrated... Evian...."
This game assumes the U.S would intervene. From what was learned from the Vietnam and Ukraine War, there is no guarantee that the U.S would actually do anything
what details needed? If they will talk about how units trade, how they move etc, it would be educational video for very narrow audience. This is not neccesary here. If you want to know about how it works, try this and iterate. Get some books, etc. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Professional_wargaming
most likely scenario: partially take island, but loses naval fleet, devastates CCP's hold, and devastates Taiwan's economy. Requires Japan's airbases. Unlikely that whatever classified advantages/disadvantages are present would be told in the open. US does not want war to break out. Out of the public info you're able to get, this is what you got. The wargame rules are structured like the real conditions (e.g. the game rules aren't arbitrary or unlike how it could play out) and played many times with many strategies. Similar to using video games to try to fold molecules, you can then run the weird strategy of the PoliSci students through actual classified data and adjust odds. Likely that there's probably more cards / boosts / rules at play, say "US refill rate is 20% faster but chinese communication rate between units is 30% faster" that you aren't going to get in a turn-based time game.
@@cw6043 How would they even get to Taiwan without getting their navy obliterated by allied forces/Taiwan. The strait is 3x WIDER than the normandy strait that the allies had to cross. They didnt even mention it in the video.
Though it left out some things. Such as, there is no mention of the Taiwanese air force or Taiwan’s navy & its own fleet of ships and submarines, as well as Taiwan’s own cruise and ballistic missiles. Lastly, it also left out both Taiwanese and Chinese special forces and spies, whose sabotage, assassinations, and espionage would play a major role in a hypothetical war. And there are many more things which are also important, such as other western countries reactions, NATO's reactions, as well as reactions of South Korea, Japan, Philippines, Australia, etc.
They also didn’t include the thousands of short and intermediate range cruise missiles China has pointed at Taiwan. Odd that none of these so called war gamers would use such an obvious advantage
@@scottwebb4722 thats why china is already invading the taiwan they already use their missles on taiwan defenses they already invading the land. taiwan loses its navy and air force, taiwan military force to evacuate in underground bases because of china's missiles
It is an overly simplified declassified representation for video demonstration. Either all the other stuff is built into the "calculations" or are simply removed from the video.
The key is how willing the US is determined to protect Taiwan. If it just "aids" Taiwan like they did to Ukraine, then China is likely to win. Otherwise I'd say China doesn't even stand a chance. Weapons (especially rockets) the military bought with a huge amount of money from Russia turned out to be trash in the Ukriane war. The military is corrupted AF that many top leaderships are either in prison or have committed suicide. and without any fundamental institutional reform within, I don't see any changes will happen. As a result, in terms of technology, Air Force, Navy, surrounding Allies, ... the US simply have a huge huge edge in every aspect.
@@oatyfrye6758 Yea, it was probably assumed all that stuff mentioned would be "thrown" at the start of the war which is why they started China surrounding Taiwan and landing on its beaches.
I can assure you China vs Taiwan will not be another Ukraine: 1. China has much more self restraint compare to Russia. 2. No country will want to fight China, not even Taiwan themselves. If you know Taiwanese, they are soft and they just want good life, and they know deep inside CCP rule will just bring prosperity to them more so than their current corrupt government. 3. Even if the West don't admit it, everyone knows they need Chinese products.
@@SaminthaSudesh China has 1.3 billion people. What could the US do that would seriously deplete that? China knows they have time on their side. They could fight for a hundred years, or a thousand years. 50% of Chinese university grads can't find jobs -- here are jobs.
The chinese government would probably instruct companies to stop doing business with foreign customers. Whether they obey this or not is up to them but they likely wouldnt service your warranty
Yes, they completely forgot that the Philippines will also be basing US fighter aircraft and long-range bombers. Also, I'd add that if the PLA attacked US aircraft or navy vessels then the US would likely strike the PRC staging areas on the mainland. In a scenario where Japan is attacked, there would surely be a wider war with allies such as the UK and Australia along for the fight to end the PRC's attack.
@@TuanTran-h5f I have some idea what the United States is capable of, and I am confident that if there were a necessity, the USA would be able to strike targets that they needed.
This assumes that the US would engage in an all out military naval conflict with China, and that China would invade Japan, both of which seem extremely unlikely.
It may sound unlikely if you’re not familiar with geopolitical alliances and the overall situation in that part of the world. If China attacks Taiwan, Japan would step in.
As he said by the point the game ended the Chinese naval fleet had been decimated, the remaining troops on the island would be without additional supplies and as soon as food, water, and ammunition run out they would be mopped up. In other words, there was not much left to game out, as soon as China is unable to physically get to the island massive amounts of supplies they've lost.
Long term is only worse for China, as they have to import almost everything they need for their economy to run. Not having a long range navy, they wouldn't be able to keep trade routes open and eventually would run out of essential items like oil. If they don't score a knockout in the first month significant enough to encourage the US and allies to give up, they lose the long game.
@@jiahao190 The war games didn't limit China to "one army." This is a brief video of 1 out of 24 scenarios, each scenario being much more detailed than the video disclosed.
@@jiahao190and? They didnt limit china to only that force. This scenario involved a chinese fleet from several theaters. It involved way more of chinas assets than the US' and china still lost. It also only involved 2-4 US submarines, the US would have dozens. If it goes on longer, it only gets worse for china
The assumption is that assets in the Philippines won’t take part in the defense of Taiwan. 🇹🇼 with EDCA there are already assets in place in the Philippines 🇵🇭
Even before EDCA, the mutual defense treaty was never rescinded. Any attack on Filipino/American units is an act of war on both. If the US decides to intervene with the invasion of Taiwan, the Philippines would be required to take action. Due to close proximity to Kaohsiung the Philippines will be a staging ground for its defense the evacuation of civillians. Japan and Korea bases will keep the norther part of Taiwan defended.
@@pogzie The Philippines would be declaring war on China by acting as a staging ground for the US. The result would be an expansion of the war into the SCS.
As a high school student in Taiwan,i think we should improve ourselves rather than expecting others to help,if the war breaks out i will certainly fight for my country in any way and also fight for the democratic values we have
@@batmanyk This is just for the public to see, you are gullible to believe the government and military authorities will reveal how they think a war between China and US would play out. Just think about it if they do reveal the truth publicly, it would allow China to try to come up with strategies to counter how US thinks. They even admit in the video most of the real war games between China and US are highly classified, so Im willing to bet this specific scenario isnt actually the most likely one.
one thing they didn't show the moment taiwan was attacked, taiwan's southern part which is situated on Luzon Strait , luzon strait is a part of the philippines which is a maritime border is obliged to defend taiwan as well phillippines' closest island the ikbayat island is only under 200km and the americans are already set up bases on the northern most part of the philippines via the Defense treaty of the two countries
@user-bs2fd3gs4k Theres a video of Chinese soldiers in Afrika who were crying after they got ambushed. Oh wait, you have not watched it because its censored by the Chinese Commushit party, just like Tiananmen Square protests of 1989.
It is not a game like usual games, where the story is pre determined. In this game you have real people using their brains to play and the outcome is unknown at first.
Remember, there’s a lot more to take into consideration rather than a conflict. Since there is also consideration like economics, morale, and most importantly political incentives.
As a non-Westerner, sometimes westerners make me laugh a lot. “China would never attack Taiwan because they would suffer too many casualties and that is not rational!” or "China's economy is already getting worse, so they won't embark on such an adventure." I would like to wake you up from your sleep with regret, but even if China loses 50 million people, it has no authority to hold the government accountable, and authoritarian governments are not known for their rational tendencies. However, the deterioration of the economy sometimes leads to war in all forms of government, not to avoid war, but to go towards war to consolidate society. Plot twist: I don't think China has any intention of attacking the USA because they only spend 1.5% of their GDP on armaments. To pursue an expansionist policy, you need to spend perhaps ten times that amount. I hear you ask: China is spending more but must be hiding it! If you have a population of nearly 1.5 billion, it is impossible to hide such large amounts in the natural flow of life because many areas, from imports to satellite images that you will only have to make for certain items, will give you away. It is very difficult to hide such a large vector. In my opinion, the country that makes China look like it is preparing for war and, on the contrary, wants this war to break out, should be a country that is at least as big as China, but spends perhaps ten times as much as China does. They make China look like they are preparing so that when they turn a small violence in the Taiwan Strait into a snowball and turn it into a world war, they can say, look, we told you so.
The first 3 paragraphs were very well thought out, logical and insightful. Then in the forth you go for the big leep of faith based on hunches and guesswork. (But the first three more than make up for the forth so you still get the thumbs up).
In the grand arc of human progress, with advancements that would astound our ancestors, shouldn't we have transcended war by now? Shouldn't each society have the freedom to govern itself? It's a heartbreaking truth that despite our incredible leaps, the specter of conflict still haunts us after millennia of civilization. What if the very threat that unites us is one so immense, no single nation can stand alone? Are we prepared to face that future, divided?
Fear of the other is very strong in some groups. Racism, war, tribalism all these things are interconnected. There is something wrong at the core of 30% of humans which is why war, conflict and other issues can never be resolved. Also there is no and never will be any other threat to us other than ourselves.
Until pseudo-anarchic game theory dynamics go away, conflict will continue humanity is trapped, it has nothing to do with transcendence or will, or being failed beings, "evil inhumanity" and so on
Although it's a good to get a rough idea on what a potential conflict might look like, I was a little skeptical about two things for this wargame: 1. the effectiveness of air mobile battalions getting the initial landing. If the Ukraine was has shown us anything, air defense saturation makes successful airborne operations near impossible to pull off unless there's a serious element of surprise. 2. I was surprised the Chinese were able to perform a successful amphibious landing in the first place considering the 100 mile distance between the strait would a.) allow the defenders with ISR assets to get a rough idea of where they would land well before it actually happened and set up shore based defenses/anti ship defenses to counter and b.) severely strain Chinese logistics (especially with U.S. subs raiding logistics convoys.) My assumption is they had some conditions for the wargame where Taiwan and the U.S. were completely taken by surprise allowing the naval landing to occur. I really wish they had a video of the full wargame so we could see the conditions, scope, and lead up to the game.
Yeah they kinda glossed over the landing itself. I'm guessing part of the scenario was an assumption of a successful landing in order to be able to game out the land operations. In reality Taiwan and the US would likely have weeks of warning because of how large of a buildup China would have to do before they could launch their invasion. It would be like the lead up to the Ukraine invasion, where the US clearly saw it coming weeks in advance. The PLA would suffer greatly to get that landing, and it's not guaranteed at all that they would get it.
@@hydra70 Yep, Taiwan and the U.S. would have plenty of advance warning if China decides to invade. I wonder if Taiwan has any naval drones like Ukraine. Probably so.
I suggest anyone interested to read about the Allied amphibious assaults on Sicily, Salerno, and D-Day. Then, ask yourself, how would they have gone if the German and Italian defenders had modern satellite reconnaissance that can see the ships loading in their ports, modern radars, and modern anti-ship missiles that can hit ships 100 miles away. I doubt ANY of the WW2 amphibious assaults would have succeeded.
@@TPM188 Yes. Important. That is why the Allies brought their own pre-fab harbors -- the Mulberrys Even when a harbor is conquered, it is usually destroyed -- like how the Germans destroyed Antwerp. It took the Allies some time to make it useful. If China is about to get a port, I am sure Taiwan will destroy it as they leave.
@@TPM188 Not to worry, though. I doubt China's ships will get close enough to land troops. Also, they are MOST vulnerable when disembarking troops. AND - I am sure Taiwan has made EVERY landing beach into a killing zone. One thing is obvious -- Taiwanese are NOT stupid.
@@TPM188 Always wanted to ask a Taiwanese --- What do you think of Biden's move making a Taiwanese women our Trade Representative to China??? That move cracked me up.
I am not a military strategist or analyst whatsoever. The US also has bases in the Philippines. Not only the Chinese attacking US bases in Japan but the Chinese also has to attack the bases in the Philippines. If the amphibious forces of the Chinese landed in southern Taiwan, those forces would likely be hit by US missiles from the northern Philippines. Unless the Chinese cripple the entire bases in both Japan and the Philippines they might have a chance of landing forces into the island. but this whole invasion is very complex but not impossible. both sides will suffer huge casualties but more on the Chinese side/
@@icet6665 I’m not sure if the PRC wants to get nuked over territory expansion. All the US and Taiwan have to do is make any invasion scenario massively unpleasant. Any invasion would hurt both economies, and the US currently has the PRC outmatched in terms of military capability. As long as the US and Taiwan can keep launching anti ship cruise missiles and control the sky, they win any conventional war.
This analysis seems pretty flawed to me. It doesn't take into account that North Korea will likely see this as an opportunity to strike South Korea, and maybe Japan, further dividing the US forces.
I recall reading an analysis of NK’s military that basically says that they are a very good defensive force that will make it extremely expensive for an invading force but in doing so, they don’t have much in terms of offensive capability. Their strategy is deterrence because in no scenario does the regime survive if they attack SK or Japan. In other words, If US or SK ever fancied topping the NK regime then the cost of the invasion would make them give up on the democracy now! plan. But if NK tried to destabilize the region then SK/US and allies would be willing to topple the regime no matter what the cost. South Koreans, I am sure will fight to the bitter end than surrender to the guy from North. However, it would be very interesting to see the blowback on the Chinese Communist Party if China fails to capture Taiwan. The scary part is at what point will they stop and turn back because eventually they will have to turn away. Geopolitically, I do not see how even swallowing up Taiwan helps China - I do understand however that would cement the Party’s image as the undoubted morally superior victors who restored pride to the Chinese. But at what cost? The west would blockade China economically - that will not work out for China at all. Just look at the trade that China will lose if US and allies retaliate with economic blockade. All of Asia and Africa put together do about USD 800 Billion worth of business with China. US and EU are more than twice that. So even if China won Taiwan, they would face some very aggressive customers that not overnight but over the course of a few years empty out Chinese factories. And where are those people going to go? You already sold off their farms, not that this generation can go back and farm. Would make a very nice recipe for political catastrophe. No, if the Chinese Communist Party is smart they will keep the Taiwan thing always on the boil - simmering to keep the population in line, in the name of restoring their national pride and fight the “evil conniving West” that has always conspired to insult the Chinese as evidenced by the West’s support for Taiwan. Xi Jinping should heed the words of a wise man who said - it’s the economy, stupid.
US military doctrine requires the US military be able to fight in two theatres simultaneously. Across the Atlantic and across the Pacific. You think it's easy to divide the US and fight on two fronts... It was literally built for that lol.
I've served at the Pentagon and have served as a military war game developer and playtester for dozens of titles. One, in particular, for those who are interested, is Decision Games' Red Dragon/Green Crescent, which posits an aggressive China and Iran. Having playtested this title a number of time, sadly Taiwan never fares well.
First of, the 2016 Arbitral Ruling is not illegal. It is very legal not just in the Philippines but also accepted globally and has become part of UNCLOS. Only China continues to insist that it is illegal, despite being an UNCLOS signatory. Secondly, China's sovereignty claim over areas within its so-called 9 or 10-dash line has already been declared illegal and this ruling was accepted globally. Thirdly, China cannot claim sovereignty over the area by using historical claims because even its history and historical maps did not consistently and clearly define the Spratly Islands, Scarborough Shoal, and even the the Paracel Islands as its own territory. Lastly, China cannot claim the South China Sea as its own lake and part of its territorial waters because it is not a lake and its not within their land boundaries. Even if China includes Taiwan as its territory, it is not enough to support a claim of sovereignty over the SCS, more so the WPS.
Grown up’s world may be too difficult for you to understand, different entity will have different claims, all claims sounds legit in their own way, the difference is, do you have enough power to back your claims up, just that simple, don’t lie to yourself that there is a good one and bad one cus there isn’t
@@kapamilyatalks5420 Hi I respect your opinion about the 2016 Arbitral Ruling. But as a Chinese who grew up in mainland China, I must point out that most Chinese believe in some sort of Social Darwinism, and they think that law can be (and will be) controlled by the stronger side of the conflict. So, in the scenario of a true invasion of Taiwan, they will not respect the arbitral ruling but try their best to defeat their so-called American imperialism and its "puppet nations" and establish a new order where the international laws and rules can be bent under their will. I'm not writing this to scare you or someone else, but these are the words that I see on Chinese websites every day. You must have heard about the recent economic depression in China, sadly more and more people are craving a war against foreign nations (either the US or Japan), they believe if they win and establish a new world order, they will be richer and become the supreme race (sound familiar? yup third reich ideology are quite popular in poor Chinese social class). To be honest, the situation in China is getting more and more similar to that of the Japanese Empire before WW2, economic depression, radical nationalism and a dictator who refused to reform.
Doubt anyone would be a quote winner in any Taiwan invasion scenario. PS - Bigger question regardless of ending would be the aftermath of the war. Questions like: - Would USA quit trading with China for the next 20 years? - Would US mine Chines ports? - Would invasion cause a brain drain from Taiwan? - Would China quit importing from USA? - What would Japan do if their mainland was attacked? - Would China use fishing fleet to send men and material across straight? - Would South Korea sell arms like drones to Taiwan?
Would riots and cities burn here in the U.S. due to drafts Would we be able to help Ukraine, push back Iran attacking our bases in the middle east. Would our economy crash due to part shortages, and no chips from Taiwan. Think a few years back supply chain issues, and put a stop on all products. Would you be able to fix your car, or afford gas. Could the dollar cash too. What about attacks here in the U.S.
- China would fracture politically and possibly geographically and new leaders would be needing (and would) focus their concerns internally to shore up support and rehabilitate their political and economic control - The USA is already in the process of on-shoring, near-shoring, and friend-shoring aka exiting China that would only continue while some trading would continue - In order for China to have any chance of victory it would need to cut off outside aid which means they would need to attack about 5-10 additional nations simultaneously in addition to Taiwan (the same as Japan tried to blitz over all of their neighbors to secure critical war supplies) which they don't have the capability to pull off successfully either, but if they did all of those nations would respond in kind, and that includes Japan. - Taiwan would be damaged but there would be a lot of money to be made in the reconstruction so no one would be going anywhere as Taiwan would remain/return to being a safe democratic country in very short order - China would attempt to use anything that floats because it doesn't have enough airlift or sealift capacity and the million man swim would lead to a lot of casualties - South Korea is gearing up to be a major force on the international arms market and they would have no issue selling to friendly nations like Taiwan
@@msytdc1577 stop throwing around opinions as if they were well-informed insights. Everything you said doesn't make the slightest sense. Where did you get that the US nearshoring is actually working? Research how the same thing happened with the sanctions on Russia, with European countries increasing their exports to Kyrgyzstan,Georgia and Azerbaijan by 2000% since the war in Ukraine began. The same happened with the US and the miraculous increase in its imports from Vietnam, Thailand, Laos and Cambodia. China continues to sell to the USA in the same way, in the same way that Europeans continue to export goods to the Russians. And the USA, despite all its efforts, is not managing to reindustrialize. Biden's push to bring semiconductor factories back to America has failed resoundingly. And this argument that China will fracture geographically is exactly the same argument I heard when Russia invaded Ukraine and what happened? Russia is more united than ever. You, like other naive people, know nothing about the determination of these people, you think that they are artificial countries, that they are held together by some kind of tyranny that makes people who hate each other stay as one country but who wait for any opportunity to become 50 countries like the Balkans. Stop thinking that the whole world is the Balkans. China also has allies. Although you are delusional and know nothing about it. Anyone who thinks that China would fight alone does not understand Chinese influence over Myanmar, Thailand, North Korea, Pakistan and most likely Russia, which would directly help China. And South Korea would be the first country to be crushed in that war with North Korean artillery capabilities. These war scenarios are child's play, and totally unrealistic. Anyone who knows the basics of the subject knows that it would be impossible for American nuclear submarines to enter the Taiwan Strait, firstly that the strait is only 50 meters deep at its deepest point, and therefore any nuclear submarine would be visible to the naked eye from helicopters and to planes. And secondly, the entire strait would be blocked by sensors and anti-submarine mines. This war would be completely catastrophic, and it would involve several other Asian nations. Thinking that all of Asia would unite against China is an American delusion that will be crushed by the complexity of reality. This would not be a localized war, as these stupid wargames think. This would be WWII. The whole world would join this war. Good luck getting Africa to fight alongside the US in this war. Good luck making Latin America fight alongside the US in this war. Good luck getting the Arabs to support the US in this war. Wake up and see the reality, how many countries supported the sanctions on Russia? The entire Global South have supported Russia. Do you really think the Global South would miss this unique opportunity to resolve its differences with the West if the mother of all wars occurred? Think again, no one would have anything to lose, it would be humanity's final war and we would all be finished.
This isn't the full story. CSIS did several playthroughs. He mentions that the Japanese bases were integral in victory. This scenario doesn't include the possibility of a precursor 2nd Korean War in which US assets are already engaged on the Korean peninsula, nor does it account for a possible scenario is which Chinese missiles have mitigated US force projection near Taiwan, the influence of Chinese information warfare disrupting Taiwan/Coalition efforts, or PLAN success in landing troops on the Northern island. All we see here is a "best case scenario".
How exactly is a 2nd korean war gonna play out? North Korea is totally incapable of launching such a war and would not be able to defeat the South Korean army conventionally. They don't even have enough fuel to keep their army running, and now they are emptying their artillery shell stocks to Russia just to stay afloat. It likely wouldn't require US involvement at all. Unless you are suggesting that China launches an invasion of South Korea, in which case that war becomes just as big of a problem for China as it does for the US.
To all: Taiwan was an aboriginal country. Netherlands was the first country to colonise Taiwan in 16 century. Dutch imported many Chinese from China as foreign labors to build Taiwan in 16 countries. Japanese colony from 1895-1945， and then Republic of China ( Taiwan, Republic Of China. ) took over rule of the island after Japan lost the war. Taiwan has Never controlled by People Republic of China ( P.R.C. established late in 1949 ) . Democratic Taiwan R.O.C was in UN until 1979. Please support Taiwan 🇹🇼 to be recognised by UN and WHO again . There are 2 Korea in UN and WHO , why UN and WHO has obeyed CCP China's demands?
There were indigenous Chinese living in Taiwan along with the aborigines long before the Dutch (and Portuguese and Spanish) arrived. Taiwan was part of China when Japan and China fought the SinoJapanese war of 1894. The Chinese ceded ownership of Taiwan to Japan in the Treaty of Shimonu-seki and Japan controlled the island until the end of WWII when they surrendered to forces of Taiwan (Republic of China). After WWII when Chiang-kai Shek and Mao Tse Tung forces battled, the Nationalists were forced to evacuate from the mainland in 1949 and they fled to Taiwan. They set up a representative government there that included representation of all the provinces of the mainland. The US changed diplomatic relations in 1979 under President Jimmy Carter and set up an embassy in Beijing. The American Institute in Taiwan was created by congress to handle the job of an embassy in Taipei; it's still there. In creating the American Institute in Taiwan, the US also pledged military support to Taiwan via the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979. I lived in Taiwan for 7 years until 1989 and I believe a war between Taiwan and China would be a monstrously stupid move by the mainland. Taiwan is an economic jewel - the mainland needs Taiwan infrastructure and the mainland has benefited from business and intellectual capital ties since the mid-80s when relations began to thaw between the two parties. There are still many in Taiwan who believe that Taiwan is a part of China even though it has been in practice completely independent since the 1950s. Anyway, 2 cents here.
@@jamesditsworth3845 well said other then the 'there are still many in Taiwan who believe part of China' going by recent poll data that would more likely be '......still a FEW......' The vast majority particularly the young do not identify as being part of China any more its been several generation of de-facto independence
Make Taiwan free is US business. make Ryuku free is Chinese business. Ryuku is chinese ally occupied by Japan in 1879. Japan reown Ryuku in 1972 after ww2. But sovereignty still on UN side. and US military bases on Ryuku. if US and China have conflict in Taiwan. Ryuku will be the war place. China will avoid war on Chinese land. just like Korea war did. Sorry, Ryuku citizens. That is how big coutries trade land. Japan are the only invader in this topic.
With this scenario, was there any information on how North Korea would react to the invasion of Taiwan? Because if Japan is bombed by China then that would bring in S. Korea in the fight due to pre-existing treaties. Did N.Korea have any impact to this or was it minimal?
China has a few million soldiers, and very easy to boost another 3-9 millions, for that 100 miles distance, China can win the war 3 times in a week. All other data is useless, China already study US military for so many years, it is easier to counter carriers and submarines near China.
Japan will not be bombed by China as long as they stayed away from Taiwan. But South Korea's situation can be tricky because North Korea has defense treaty with PRC. The moment China or North Korea got invaded, they can automatically join the war. If South Korea provided military support to Taiwan, they can be subject to retaliation by North Korea, who can't wait to invade the South. And it'd be hard for China to hold NK on leash.
North Korea is in regime preservation mode, e.g. nuclear program. If China commences hostilities against Taiwan, South Korea goes into full alert, which probably deters North Korea. The question is would China prompt North Korea to take surprise offensive actions of some kind to begin a dilution of Allied forces. I doubt it. I suspect if North Korea is in on the war they start at the same time as China does in an attempt to overwhelm allied forces. Like Russia, this effort could evolve out of extensive military exercises by both countries. Like Russia, that would be the giveaway that the attack is coming. North Korea would be risking its regime while China could not devote itself to their preservation as they did in the Korean War. I think NK looks for arms deals with China to raise revenue. I don't think the NK regime risks losses in a fight with South Korea and US forces there. Deterrence has worked for decades.
She has NO navy, you can grab a foot hold by air but resupply must be by sea .no one else’s ships , subs and planes can be around transports travel @ about 12 mph , that’s 8 hrs. @ sea .
Next thing you know those base gets bombed to oblivion, US forces falls back to Hawaii, Chinese forces move in and now you have forever PLA presence in Philippines, lol
Hate to say this but this simulation significantly underplays casualties the attackers typically takes in an urban amphibious assault. 1 battalion just won’t make it.
I feel China really has no idea how daunting of a task it is to invade a country by sea. operation overlord was a huge logistical and manpower undertaking. All the while they had to trick the enemy (Germans) on where they might land. That will not happen in this scenario. The US and its Allie’s will know well before hand when the invasion occurs because you have to have a build up on logistics. No matter how much military the Chinese have. They have no experience in naval warfare or amphibious invasions in the modern era. The cost will be to much in the long run in equipment and lives.
it's a war game, it has to simplify things in general but if you read the report it talks about how the majority of US loses of aircraft happen on the ground before they even take off cause of the lack of hardened bunkers and other weaknesses. MedCorps has also been told to get working on solutions for field medicine cause the golden hour from the GWOT isn't going to be a thing in a near peer conflict, Marines are being restructured around this conflict leading some to question their usefulness in other conflicts. Honestly I think IndoPaCom conflicts are being over-engineered for at the price of a potential SouthCom conflict preparedness.
I'm curious if the results look the same with a concurrent North Korea invasion of the South. I suspect that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be coincident with a North Korean advance. The importance of regional allies should not be understated.
Remember those sunk Russian ships? nato was giving Ukraine their rockets and using AWACs/Global Hawks to guide those missiles into Russian ships. Wouldn't you think Russia will return the favor?
Why are they putting this information (i.e. loss scenarios) on the internet? I remember when a new station (I forgot which) put our military plans before the Iraq Invasion (to get them out of Kuwait).
CCP China is more of a threat than Russia, Ukraine showed how weak Russian conventional forces are. Regional powers around China are the key, allies like Japan, Australia, Philippines et al... Need to triple up presence there for more unsinkable carriers...
Should have included the EDCA Bases too. Remember the Philippines and United States has Mutual Defense Treaty. An attack on one is attack on both. This is a handicapped game.😂
Yes, in some ways it was. But that is intentional as while this video showed one scenario when they do these war games they are plural, multiple scenarios are played out with various handicaps imposed on both sides in different games, the one represented in the video was just the most likely one. Another game could start out where the US gets super unlucky and loses 3 carriers in the first week (imposed by the scenario, not due to being the result of calculations, i.e. it is not an expected event), or where China is able to attack in a surprise move instead of human, signals, and technical intelligence giving away the build up weeks and months in advance, etc. This is done as the point of doing war games is to find where you are weak to improve, and to find where the opponent is weak to focus your efforts there in an actual conflict.
If they attack JDSF bases with US aircraft don’t you think the JDSF would enter the conflict? The Philippines, India, and Korea would also be encouraged to join I think. India could see it as an opportunity to attack in the north and have china fighting on two fronts. North Korea may feel inspired to invade south, then the US would also fight with South Korea. I think at that point it becomes WW3 because NATO and Australia may decide to join which would trigger Russia to fight with China and DPRK. Then NATO could finally mobilize in Ukraine. This is a thought experiment but it wouldn’t surprise me if at least some of this happens.
Yes, India would join that war. That's why QUAD(+) exists. Becareful the other accounts blazinchalice and jt3dw6vv4x trying to do some propaganda for China.
@@blazinchalice QUAD is India's interest and it's an security alliance -> military means. If Mainland China starts a war (PRC), then India joins the opposite side, as they're threatened
@doom9603 Wrong. It is not a pact, there is no mutual defense agreement. It's not Asian NATO. You have not made any case for India going to war over Taiwan. They will not
So Taiwan don't have any plan or intention or capability to counterattack inside china at the same time? You have to give them their own medicine to taste so they will get feelings and realisation.
China can also attack Taiwan from inside as well. Since its inhabitants are pretty much a similar race, which they can assimilate well, which unfortunately made it much easier for spies to gather intelligence on military operations.
You have not considered that China will initially put their forces guise as tourist etc months or even years earlier before the start of the invasion. This war is not going to be start like a conventional D day invasion style... 😂😂😂
Back in high school (many decades ago), we tried to play a very complex board game with lots cardboard tiles. We never did get far into the game. Besides using national resources to raise units, we also had to designate certain cities a logistic hubs (and only cities above a certain size can be designated as such), we also had to create supply depots along the line of advancement and leave troops to garrison it. Besides supply point, you also had foraging point for certain areas. If you are not careful, your army can disintergrate from starvation. Even if you are careful, if you try to go too deep into enemy territory, and to keep your troops fed, your 100,000 men army may be down to 60,000 troops at a battle just from troops loss assigned to guard your supply depots.
China plans to boost its military spending by 7.2% this year as Xi Jinping continues to modernize the armed forces.
Read more about Beijing’s plan to continue to build up its military: on.wsj.com/3uWnu1K
😂only 1.5% of gdp
@@Im-mono4% of GDP.
My opinion is China is making the world think they are gearing up for a major war but all they are doing is making the US spend more and more bleeding us dry from different angles from the fentanyl crisis to us spending more and more on our military budget because of the fears of China’s Power aggression in the Asian sea
7.2% in dollar or yuan?
Everyone reading this keep in mind, this is the military spending REPORTED by the CCP. Our intelligence agencies believe that there is MUCH more being spent in secret, in order to hide their buildup. The Chinese are now estimated to be spending more than the Americans on military. The Americans and they allies are going to need to increase spending in the coming years to contain this new evil.
In the Pentagon's underground facilities there is a secret room where trainees play Age of Empires II, Civilization VI, Victoria II, Europa Universalis, Star Craft etc...
We can just get AI to do that for us now 😅
Served there - it's actually a lot of card games, video games, shooting the breeze over hot coffee and donuts...
Arrh been there!
ononononooo
@@roydiehl sounds like a lot of wasted taxpayers money
Half the people watching this: “A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be catastrophic!”
The other half: “That game looks cool!”
im both
😅Same. Found this worth sharing.
If China does pull off an invasion of Taiwan, could they do it by 2050 if not 2027?
By Quinton Smith
China had "invaded" Taiwan in 1946 and renamed "Japanese colony - Taiwan" to "Taiwan Province of China"! (If the liberation of colonies can be called an "invasion", then the evil Western colonists must have become "saints". The emancipation of the British Colony-America seemed superfluous)
Taiwan Provincial Government Office Building, located at No. 1, Shengfu Road, Nantou City, Nantou County, Taiwan
You can check whether Taiwan's constitution says "Constitution of the Republic of China"?
Is Taiwan’s airline called “China Airlines”? If Taiwan is not part of China, why is Taiwan's civil aviation company called "China Airlines"?
Is Taiwan’s Steel called “China Steel Corporation”? If Taiwan is not part of China, why is Taiwan’s steel called “China Steel Corporation”?
The Taiwan question is China's internal affair, a legacy of China's civil war, and a family matter for the Chinese, and has nothing to do with white-skinned, blue-eyed, speaking with a forked tongue Yanks.
-CaiLei
Even if you don’t understand Chinese, the Republic of CHINA says it all.
Btw, the ROC still claims the administrations rights to ALL of CHINA, so the PRC is only forced to fight an illegitimate puppet regime propped up entirely by the USA that try to subjugate the entire Chinese population under USA control.
CHINA STEEL
Advanced High Strength Steels According to the study undertaken by the World Steel Association (worldsteel), the use of AHSS to replace the plain carbon steel can reduce the body weight by 25%, save 5.1% fuel consumption, and reduce 5.7% greenhouse gas emissions ...
Taiwan is in China, and there are China’s symbols everywhere. Can you succeed in de-Chinaizing it? 🤣
This is a great game, I bet if mighty Afghan army, which was armed to the teeth with US tax payers hard-earned money, had played this game, they would probably not to make themselves disappearing when Taliban showed up on their door steps.
@@汤圆-y7f As an Afghan Army Officer, I confirm that in 2021 when the Taliban taking over Afghanistan we 100% successfully defeated them in the board game several times (Theoretically).
Let’s asked AI when war starts.
"Please stay conventional. Please stay conventional. Please stay conventional." - Everyone on the planet
More like - please don't get involved US. The Chinese are fighting for what they think as an integral part of China, while the US would be fighting for chips - is that really so worth it to destroy the global economy over? How about instead just boosting domestic prodction or even god forbid, be a trade partner with China
even if they do we will all feel the effects, not just in our pockets and much more pronounced than the Ukraine war did so far
You think China has nukes that work? Based on what evidence?
Or nice, my comments have been deleted (I didn't swear and didn't say anything bad btw). You don't want to hear the truth ? No problems. Keep living in nirvana. But don't forget that one day real life will sting painfully. But it will be too late.
Only use 'conventional' WDM's, you mean.
As a Taiwanese, I just want the status quo. No "unification", no "independence", no war. China, don't invade us, it's gonna be a lose-lose for everyone.
Status quo has limit. Unified is permanent. Only way is sign Peace Treat with the mainland but will they sign is a big question.
大陆人赞同，虽然我支持一个中国，但打仗对人民只有坏处，要是有人为了自己历史留名发动战争，我会把它订在我内心的耻辱柱上，也会这么教育我的孩子，代代藏到心底，直到有一可以在现实中把它订在耻辱柱上
@@Utube1024 They won't, and any peaceful reunification under "one country, two systems" ended when Beijing broke their promises to not touch Hong Kong's government and press until 2047. They reneged on that quickly, pretty much all of Hong Kong protested, and pretty much all of Hong Kong's press -- long awarded as one of the most independent and best journalistic press in the world -- was locked up and put in jail.
The Taiwanese watching that will never believe the "one country, two systems" lie.
But China need it as it is. The real danger for Taiwan is power struggle with US on Pacific scene. If conflict erupts the island can not stay safe and will turn into a war zone. Just looking at map you don't need to be strategist it will be overwhelmed in no time considering China quickly is closing the gap in military technology with US.
@HDiver-ru7ru china is no longer closing the gap with the United states, the US has already started pulling away again. The only significant advance the chinese have made in the last 1-2 years is the "j36" prototype "stealth 6th gen fighter" (it is none of those things) meanwhile the US already flew their equivalent 3 years ago just didnt show anyone because theyre an actual professional military... and has since lengthened the gap in the last 2 years with the LRASM XR, Typhon, rapid dragon, LRHW (US first hypersonic missile in service Dec. 2023), Aim174, Aim260, Constellation class, Orca XLuuv, B21, PRSM, 10 different counter drone weapons, MALD, and Mako +2 more hypersonics. Its already over for china
Did I just watch a 70 year old grandpa play a round of board game against himself?
@dalee2419 no, the wargame was already completed and Cancian simply replayed the events. Normally there will be two groups of people, American defense specialists vs people who have studied china and its military. The two groups go through a variety of scenarios and make their conclusions for the US military
No, you just watched a propaganda video (naive story for fools), in the geopolitical war against China.
Did you not see the other guy simulating the scenario with him that they showed multiple times in this video?
Retired USMC Colonel 70 year old grandpa, yes
That's ageism what you are saying, Sir. Don't you think that's cynical?
I played one of these hexagon turn-based war games a few decades ago. It took more than 30 minutes to set up and over four to eight hours to finish the game. After playing for three hours, it became too boring, a truce was declared and all the pieces go straight back to the box and never to be seen again.
In undergrad I had nerdy friends who would play them…some took 3+ days…
The closest thing I've played that is similar to this game is Axis & Allies. What game is this that they playing or what game closely resembles what they were doing? I'd love to look into this, it might be my new favorite board game.
@@codyelder9201it’s one of those old war games back in the 19th century. Played on a giant map. There are much better version of it now since the longest one (D-Day) took seceral weeks to play out. It is sand table exercise.
Yes
oh man, that reminded me of the board game attack, one game in our friend group took weeks to finish. everyone sneaky sneaky making alliances and breaking them the same day. and no1 trusting each other:P when 2 people were just randomly talking other players tried to listen in to hear if we were forging alliances.
Ok can they actually sell this game though? It looks better than most of the current strategy games 😆
Hasbros would probably buy and sell it
I need a Friday night with a couple friends, beers, pizza and play this game.
GMT Games has a game called Next War: Taiwan. The second edition is coming out later this year.
It kinda looks like hoi4 with all the little tiles and units
funny guy, it looks like boardgames we played in 1980s. But they say they 'Stop' and calculate losses. So they are not rolling dices. It is that calculating thingy that I want to get my hand on and the weapon performance databases.
Are these the same military experts who said the Ukraine invasion would only last a few days??
Exactly. It is impossible to predict accurately how this would go on. How strong and capable Chinese units are? How US Navy will perform since it has not faced any major engagement since WWII? How much pain are the Americans willing to take to defend a small island that they can't even find on the World map? No one knows. I would rather not see this game.
The Ukrainians would have indeed fall in a month if only the US and EU responded by sanction and supplying billions worth of supplies making Russia not able to mobilised troops fully and turn into war economy since it would have destroyed Russian economy.
It was due to the sanctions that Russia stopped advancing. Get yourself informed
It seems hexagons are the bestagons for war games.
Called sectors, the bestagons originated on a map like this
Hexagons are the bestagons indeed
I understood that reference!
ahh .. a fellow man of culture I see. Hexagons *_are_* the bestagons.
yeah, yeah, yeah, but what about the _flags?_
Surprised the U.S. bases in the Philippines weren't mentioned.
And South Korea's
I guess those are more classified
@@yungphameThey aren't. Pretty well known bases.
Espionage and Sabotage of Naval Bases in Singapore and Australia where the US are likely to dock and resupply. There wont be any military presence but remember there many CCP agents, sympatisers and anyone can be paid handsomely by the Chinese to do their bidding.
Because China will consider the intervention of other nations as an act of war.
Taiwan is an island and cannot be supplied like Ukraine.
To do that, the Chinese navy has to be dealt with and that cannot happen without external military intervention.
They should stream these games in full.
i bet this thing took days to play out
with over the top e-sports esque commentary.
"the invasion of Taiwan is brought to you by.... Evian... stay ready for war... stay hydrated... Evian...."
Competitive finals start 2027..
*Sponsored by G-fuel*
What are the system requirements to play the game?
*586 maybe 486 and 20MB of RAM*
@@marke9036 that was very good pc. my first pc in 1994 was 386, 4m ram, 170m hard disk, cost me 6000 rmb.
BIG TABLE
China casually seeing this and saying - "Hmmm. We should rethink our strategy and avoid this scenario" 🤣
This is not as likely a scenario as this video wants you to believe.
@@Frizzlemanit’s actually China’s best case scenario
@@gregb5683 how does China attacking Japan help them take Taiwan?
@@Frizzlemanus military bases on japan, major resupply point for US. its basically most of the reason the bases even exist.
The Chinese philosopher, Confucius, would say buy a second board game and add more pieces to your side.
He didn't even show us his 12-sided dice! For this game, I bet they're made of depleted uranium.
lol
Wargames like this don't use dice, everything is done by tables and maybe a referee.
You made me laugh so much!
HOI4 players, its our time to shine!
Yup
Quick download Millennium Dawn comrade!
ye boiii
Putin: i like that game
The poor HoI IV players brains would explode when they realise they have to deal with actual logistics
This game assumes the U.S would intervene. From what was learned from the Vietnam and Ukraine War, there is no guarantee that the U.S would actually do anything
Did they roll dices for the outcomes of each battles lol
Statistical probability.
Virtual dice
Table of random numbers
Did they cards for territory captured?
No, an acne faced 14-year-old "Dungeon Master" called the shots.
Interesting. As someone interested in military games myself. I was always curious how those military game simulations worked.
They roll a D6 for pro-American propaganda
Search Wargaming Handbook from UK Ministry of Defense.
It always add 30% buff onto US military. Try simulate Vietnam war. You will know how wrong it is
boringly, unfortunately
I don't care
This video barely gave any details. Might as well have showed a game of monopoly.
what details needed? If they will talk about how units trade, how they move etc, it would be educational video for very narrow audience. This is not neccesary here. If you want to know about how it works, try this and iterate. Get some books, etc. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Professional_wargaming
Read the CSIS paper if you want details. it's free. and make sure to stop by the CSIS store!
most likely scenario: partially take island, but loses naval fleet, devastates CCP's hold, and devastates Taiwan's economy. Requires Japan's airbases. Unlikely that whatever classified advantages/disadvantages are present would be told in the open. US does not want war to break out. Out of the public info you're able to get, this is what you got. The wargame rules are structured like the real conditions (e.g. the game rules aren't arbitrary or unlike how it could play out) and played many times with many strategies. Similar to using video games to try to fold molecules, you can then run the weird strategy of the PoliSci students through actual classified data and adjust odds. Likely that there's probably more cards / boosts / rules at play, say "US refill rate is 20% faster but chinese communication rate between units is 30% faster" that you aren't going to get in a turn-based time game.
@@cw6043 How would they even get to Taiwan without getting their navy obliterated by allied forces/Taiwan. The strait is 3x WIDER than the normandy strait that the allies had to cross. They didnt even mention it in the video.
@@jakob6960 a surprise invasion?
Please provide a link to this board game! I wanna play!
Though it left out some things. Such as, there is no mention of the Taiwanese air force or Taiwan’s navy & its own fleet of ships and submarines, as well as Taiwan’s own cruise and ballistic missiles. Lastly, it also left out both Taiwanese and Chinese special forces and spies, whose sabotage, assassinations, and espionage would play a major role in a hypothetical war. And there are many more things which are also important, such as other western countries reactions, NATO's reactions, as well as reactions of South Korea, Japan, Philippines, Australia, etc.
They also didn’t include the thousands of short and intermediate range cruise missiles China has pointed at Taiwan. Odd that none of these so called war gamers would use such an obvious advantage
@@scottwebb4722 thats why china is already invading the taiwan they already use their missles on taiwan defenses they already invading the land. taiwan loses its navy and air force, taiwan military force to evacuate in underground bases because of china's missiles
It is an overly simplified declassified representation for video demonstration. Either all the other stuff is built into the "calculations" or are simply removed from the video.
The key is how willing the US is determined to protect Taiwan. If it just "aids" Taiwan like they did to Ukraine, then China is likely to win. Otherwise I'd say China doesn't even stand a chance. Weapons (especially rockets) the military bought with a huge amount of money from Russia turned out to be trash in the Ukriane war. The military is corrupted AF that many top leaderships are either in prison or have committed suicide. and without any fundamental institutional reform within, I don't see any changes will happen. As a result, in terms of technology, Air Force, Navy, surrounding Allies, ... the US simply have a huge huge edge in every aspect.
@@oatyfrye6758 Yea, it was probably assumed all that stuff mentioned would be "thrown" at the start of the war which is why they started China surrounding Taiwan and landing on its beaches.
This is a war where one side talks about fighting but is afraid to fight, While the other side fears it will lose but will not lose.
You do realise what you said applies to both sides right?
只要习主席想赢，军队就会帮他赢
US will lose in the long run even if China doesn't succeed at first try since the Chinese have greater industrial capacity.
Real war is not a game, war causes deaths.
The former is not the Chinese, I feel.
This is a completely avoidable scenario. No one should want the US & China to fight.
No one sane. The same could be said of Ukraine and Russia but look at them now...
Totally agreed. There will be no miltery involment in US and Chainese will also not attack US bases
I can assure you China vs Taiwan will not be another Ukraine:
1. China has much more self restraint compare to Russia.
2. No country will want to fight China, not even Taiwan themselves. If you know Taiwanese, they are soft and they just want good life, and they know deep inside CCP rule will just bring prosperity to them more so than their current corrupt government.
3. Even if the West don't admit it, everyone knows they need Chinese products.
@@SaminthaSudesh China has 1.3 billion people. What could the US do that would seriously deplete that? China knows they have time on their side. They could fight for a hundred years, or a thousand years. 50% of Chinese university grads can't find jobs -- here are jobs.
It's not avoidable if China invades Taiwan
The key is that the United States must be willing to support Taiwan
That is the biggest issue that no one talks about. That is the US #1 weakness, you can see russia taking advantage of that right now with ukraine.
What will happen to the warranty on my chinese EV in Australia 😅
void
You will be labeled a traitor by buying CCP shitbox and support enemy forces
If China won, it's ok. Unless the Aussie gov ban them.😅
I think thats down to you, considering you bought a chinese EV.
The chinese government would probably instruct companies to stop doing business with foreign customers. Whether they obey this or not is up to them but they likely wouldnt service your warranty
The map is like civilization
No. Civilization's latter edition maps are like the war games'.
No, civilization is 100X simpler.
US is building a port in a Philippine island very close to Taiwan. 100 of the island's inhabitants have become military reservist.
Yes, they completely forgot that the Philippines will also be basing US fighter aircraft and long-range bombers. Also, I'd add that if the PLA attacked US aircraft or navy vessels then the US would likely strike the PRC staging areas on the mainland. In a scenario where Japan is attacked, there would surely be a wider war with allies such as the UK and Australia along for the fight to end the PRC's attack.
@@blazinchalice The Germans would be sure to send helmets.
Probably a reaction to these tests or something. They think a southern invasion is most likely, hence the northern Philippine bases.
@@blazinchaliceyou really think that the shinese are just going to let you bomb them. Lol. You don't even know what the shinese are capable of. Lol.
@@TuanTran-h5f I have some idea what the United States is capable of, and I am confident that if there were a necessity, the USA would be able to strike targets that they needed.
This assumes that the US would engage in an all out military naval conflict with China, and that China would invade Japan, both of which seem extremely unlikely.
It may sound unlikely if you’re not familiar with geopolitical alliances and the overall situation in that part of the world. If China attacks Taiwan, Japan would step in.
@@EhCloserLook or any US ally in the region, which includes SK, Australia and the Philippines
Japan doesn't have much of a military.
@@MB-xe8bb Japan's military is literally in the top 10 global militaries.
@@RayshiaRoman AFAIK, Japan's military units are only for their self defense and never to engage against others
I'm curious about the outcome if the game had not concluded at such an early stage.
As he said by the point the game ended the Chinese naval fleet had been decimated, the remaining troops on the island would be without additional supplies and as soon as food, water, and ammunition run out they would be mopped up. In other words, there was not much left to game out, as soon as China is unable to physically get to the island massive amounts of supplies they've lost.
Long term is only worse for China, as they have to import almost everything they need for their economy to run. Not having a long range navy, they wouldn't be able to keep trade routes open and eventually would run out of essential items like oil. If they don't score a knockout in the first month significant enough to encourage the US and allies to give up, they lose the long game.
@msytdc1577 China has 5 armys, involves in this game is only its east army. China's north and central army alao has naval force....
@@jiahao190 The war games didn't limit China to "one army." This is a brief video of 1 out of 24 scenarios, each scenario being much more detailed than the video disclosed.
@@jiahao190and? They didnt limit china to only that force. This scenario involved a chinese fleet from several theaters. It involved way more of chinas assets than the US' and china still lost. It also only involved 2-4 US submarines, the US would have dozens. If it goes on longer, it only gets worse for china
The assumption is that assets in the Philippines won’t take part in the defense of Taiwan. 🇹🇼 with EDCA there are already assets in place in the Philippines 🇵🇭
Even before EDCA, the mutual defense treaty was never rescinded. Any attack on Filipino/American units is an act of war on both. If the US decides to intervene with the invasion of Taiwan, the Philippines would be required to take action.
Due to close proximity to Kaohsiung the Philippines will be a staging ground for its defense the evacuation of civillians. Japan and Korea bases will keep the norther part of Taiwan defended.
If you are designing a High Speed Train. You don't have to put the effect of general relativity in your formula, cause it is negligible.
@@pogzie The Philippines would be declaring war on China by acting as a staging ground for the US. The result would be an expansion of the war into the SCS.
ROC, not Taiwan,
other countries will not do anything. or will be ww3.
Now I want this board game
I was going to say. this looks hella complicated. But have at it :)
This is a board game advertisement.
The same one that's been around since at least the 70's.
As a high school student in Taiwan,i think we should improve ourselves rather than expecting others to help,if the war breaks out i will certainly fight for my country in any way and also fight for the democratic values we have
China COSCO owned Port of Kaoshiung.
So China PLA will attack Port of Kaoshiung right ?
Yes, Ukrainians are fighting too, and the war is likely to continue for at least another decade.
好的。无人军备上。😊
now we know a specific scenario that for sure will not happen
yo, thats why its unclassified
@@batmanyk
This is just for the public to see, you are gullible to believe the government and military authorities will reveal how they think a war between China and US would play out. Just think about it if they do reveal the truth publicly, it would allow China to try to come up with strategies to counter how US thinks. They even admit in the video most of the real war games between China and US are highly classified, so Im willing to bet this specific scenario isnt actually the most likely one.
Of course the new high speed rail has connected Mainland and Taiwan😂
one thing they didn't show the moment taiwan was attacked, taiwan's southern part which is situated on Luzon Strait , luzon strait is a part of the philippines which is a maritime border is obliged to defend taiwan as well
phillippines' closest island the ikbayat island is only under 200km and the americans are already set up bases on the northern most part of the philippines via the Defense treaty of the two countries
@user-bs2fd3gs4k Theres a video of Chinese soldiers in Afrika who were crying after they got ambushed. Oh wait, you have not watched it because its censored by the Chinese Commushit party, just like Tiananmen Square protests of 1989.
要说日本可能还有点用，菲律宾?中国海警就够他对付的了
Also, attackers should lose far more troops and equipment than defenders. This game didn't show that.
Great info
@@6789uiop agree. On the offensives Russia is seeing 2 to Ukraines 1. Taiwan will be more like Okinawa.
Now they just need mini figures and some dice
Yessir. It would look so cool with little models of the ships and stuff.
WSJ should've leaned into the game board aspect and included animations or representations of the fighting and casualties. This was way too dry.
Where can we buy this exact game?
It is not a game like usual games, where the story is pre determined. In this game you have real people using their brains to play and the outcome is unknown at first.
Where do I get one of those maps?? Who makes em??? Just wondering...
fun question actually idk
I want to play this game so badly.
Join the military and you might become an actual player
Lies again? Chevrolet Higher Chinese
There's a full pdf report and a few videos of the game. I think it's published somewhere as it's open source.
the game looks badass!!
Just as a video game haha
Just as a video game, right?
Invade you say? 😂😂😂😂😂 I heard that a million times already
Remember, there’s a lot more to take into consideration rather than a conflict. Since there is also consideration like economics, morale, and most importantly political incentives.
Plenty noncombat aggression they can do like trade wars, culture wars, sabotage, etc.
True. China should have passed the two child policy instead of the one child policy. That would have prevented a lot of problems from occurring.
I like that they magically forgot North Korea exists.
@@eitkoml2 child started long time ago beside they wouldnt be like what they are today if not for 1 child policy now its 3 or 4 someth
and currently the CCP is seeing foreign investment disappear, a property market crash, youth unemployment, there was a banking issue last year, etc.
As a non-Westerner, sometimes westerners make me laugh a lot. “China would never attack Taiwan because they would suffer too many casualties and that is not rational!” or "China's economy is already getting worse, so they won't embark on such an adventure."
I would like to wake you up from your sleep with regret, but even if China loses 50 million people, it has no authority to hold the government accountable, and authoritarian governments are not known for their rational tendencies. However, the deterioration of the economy sometimes leads to war in all forms of government, not to avoid war, but to go towards war to consolidate society.
Plot twist: I don't think China has any intention of attacking the USA because they only spend 1.5% of their GDP on armaments. To pursue an expansionist policy, you need to spend perhaps ten times that amount. I hear you ask: China is spending more but must be hiding it! If you have a population of nearly 1.5 billion, it is impossible to hide such large amounts in the natural flow of life because many areas, from imports to satellite images that you will only have to make for certain items, will give you away. It is very difficult to hide such a large vector.
In my opinion, the country that makes China look like it is preparing for war and, on the contrary, wants this war to break out, should be a country that is at least as big as China, but spends perhaps ten times as much as China does. They make China look like they are preparing so that when they turn a small violence in the Taiwan Strait into a snowball and turn it into a world war, they can say, look, we told you so.
China COSCO owned Port of Kaoshiung.
So China PLA will attack Port of Kaoshiung right ?
The first 3 paragraphs were very well thought out, logical and insightful. Then in the forth you go for the big leep of faith based on hunches and guesswork. (But the first three more than make up for the forth so you still get the thumbs up).
In the grand arc of human progress, with advancements that would astound our ancestors, shouldn't we have transcended war by now? Shouldn't each society have the freedom to govern itself? It's a heartbreaking truth that despite our incredible leaps, the specter of conflict still haunts us after millennia of civilization. What if the very threat that unites us is one so immense, no single nation can stand alone? Are we prepared to face that future, divided?
Fear of the other is very strong in some groups. Racism, war, tribalism all these things are interconnected. There is something wrong at the core of 30% of humans which is why war, conflict and other issues can never be resolved. Also there is no and never will be any other threat to us other than ourselves.
Patriotism
Until pseudo-anarchic game theory dynamics go away, conflict will continue
humanity is trapped, it has nothing to do with transcendence or will, or being failed beings, "evil inhumanity" and so on
Dude the war between Taiwan and China would be like the war between Poland and Germany in WW2
Although it's a good to get a rough idea on what a potential conflict might look like, I was a little skeptical about two things for this wargame:
1. the effectiveness of air mobile battalions getting the initial landing. If the Ukraine was has shown us anything, air defense saturation makes successful airborne operations near impossible to pull off unless there's a serious element of surprise.
2. I was surprised the Chinese were able to perform a successful amphibious landing in the first place considering the 100 mile distance between the strait would a.) allow the defenders with ISR assets to get a rough idea of where they would land well before it actually happened and set up shore based defenses/anti ship defenses to counter and b.) severely strain Chinese logistics (especially with U.S. subs raiding logistics convoys.)
My assumption is they had some conditions for the wargame where Taiwan and the U.S. were completely taken by surprise allowing the naval landing to occur. I really wish they had a video of the full wargame so we could see the conditions, scope, and lead up to the game.
Yeah they kinda glossed over the landing itself. I'm guessing part of the scenario was an assumption of a successful landing in order to be able to game out the land operations. In reality Taiwan and the US would likely have weeks of warning because of how large of a buildup China would have to do before they could launch their invasion. It would be like the lead up to the Ukraine invasion, where the US clearly saw it coming weeks in advance. The PLA would suffer greatly to get that landing, and it's not guaranteed at all that they would get it.
@@hydra70 Yep, Taiwan and the U.S. would have plenty of advance warning if China decides to invade. I wonder if Taiwan has any naval drones like Ukraine. Probably so.
I suggest anyone interested to read about the Allied amphibious assaults on Sicily, Salerno, and D-Day.
Then, ask yourself, how would they have gone if the German and Italian defenders
had modern satellite reconnaissance that can see the ships loading in their ports,
modern radars, and modern anti-ship missiles that can hit ships 100 miles away.
I doubt ANY of the WW2 amphibious assaults would have succeeded.
only if the allies are still using WW2 technology.
As a Taiwanese, this is exactly what I think. Also, how do Chinese keep consistent military supply after landing?
@@TPM188 Yes. Important. That is why the Allies brought their own pre-fab harbors -- the Mulberrys
Even when a harbor is conquered, it is usually destroyed -- like how the Germans destroyed Antwerp. It took the Allies some time to make it useful.
If China is about to get a port, I am sure Taiwan will destroy it as they leave.
@@TPM188 Not to worry, though. I doubt China's ships will get close enough to land troops.
Also, they are MOST vulnerable when disembarking troops.
AND - I am sure Taiwan has made EVERY landing beach into a killing zone.
One thing is obvious -- Taiwanese are NOT stupid.
@@TPM188 Always wanted to ask a Taiwanese ---
What do you think of Biden's move making a Taiwanese women our Trade Representative to China???
That move cracked me up.
I am not a military strategist or analyst whatsoever. The US also has bases in the Philippines. Not only the Chinese attacking US bases in Japan but the Chinese also has to attack the bases in the Philippines. If the amphibious forces of the Chinese landed in southern Taiwan, those forces would likely be hit by US missiles from the northern Philippines. Unless the Chinese cripple the entire bases in both Japan and the Philippines they might have a chance of landing forces into the island. but this whole invasion is very complex but not impossible. both sides will suffer huge casualties but more on the Chinese side/
A fool trying to be a military analyst, what a laughing stock
LOL YOU THINK THEY WON'T USE NUCLEAR DRONES?
@@icet6665 I’m not sure if the PRC wants to get nuked over territory expansion. All the US and Taiwan have to do is make any invasion scenario massively unpleasant. Any invasion would hurt both economies, and the US currently has the PRC outmatched in terms of military capability. As long as the US and Taiwan can keep launching anti ship cruise missiles and control the sky, they win any conventional war.
Found the commie, you'll never win@@yaoliang1580
@@yaoliang1580no they're pretty spot on
This analysis seems pretty flawed to me.
It doesn't take into account that North Korea will likely see this as an opportunity to strike South Korea, and maybe Japan, further dividing the US forces.
That’s putting a lot of faith into North Korea’s military
I recall reading an analysis of NK’s military that basically says that they are a very good defensive force that will make it extremely expensive for an invading force but in doing so, they don’t have much in terms of offensive capability. Their strategy is deterrence because in no scenario does the regime survive if they attack SK or Japan. In other words, If US or SK ever fancied topping the NK regime then the cost of the invasion would make them give up on the democracy now! plan. But if NK tried to destabilize the region then SK/US and allies would be willing to topple the regime no matter what the cost. South Koreans, I am sure will fight to the bitter end than surrender to the guy from North. However, it would be very interesting to see the blowback on the Chinese Communist Party if China fails to capture Taiwan. The scary part is at what point will they stop and turn back because eventually they will have to turn away. Geopolitically, I do not see how even swallowing up Taiwan helps China - I do understand however that would cement the Party’s image as the undoubted morally superior victors who restored pride to the Chinese. But at what cost? The west would blockade China economically - that will not work out for China at all. Just look at the trade that China will lose if US and allies retaliate with economic blockade. All of Asia and Africa put together do about USD 800 Billion worth of business with China. US and EU are more than twice that. So even if China won Taiwan, they would face some very aggressive customers that not overnight but over the course of a few years empty out Chinese factories. And where are those people going to go? You already sold off their farms, not that this generation can go back and farm. Would make a very nice recipe for political catastrophe. No, if the Chinese Communist Party is smart they will keep the Taiwan thing always on the boil - simmering to keep the population in line, in the name of restoring their national pride and fight the “evil conniving West” that has always conspired to insult the Chinese as evidenced by the West’s support for Taiwan. Xi Jinping should heed the words of a wise man who said - it’s the economy, stupid.
US military doctrine requires the US military be able to fight in two theatres simultaneously. Across the Atlantic and across the Pacific.
You think it's easy to divide the US and fight on two fronts... It was literally built for that lol.
@@nicktubby9710and it lost and folded it's limbs in a 20 year HUMILIATING DEFEAT in Afghanistan 😂😂😂😂
I've served at the Pentagon and have served as a military war game developer and playtester for dozens of titles. One, in particular, for those who are interested, is Decision Games' Red Dragon/Green Crescent, which posits an aggressive China and Iran. Having playtested this title a number of time, sadly Taiwan never fares well.
The usual cities in rubble scenario?
Thats completely different though. This is china only. Taiwan doesnt fare well in any scenario though including this one so why does that even matter?
First of, the 2016 Arbitral Ruling is not illegal. It is very legal not just in the Philippines but also accepted globally and has become part of UNCLOS. Only China continues to insist that it is illegal, despite being an UNCLOS signatory.
Secondly, China's sovereignty claim over areas within its so-called 9 or 10-dash line has already been declared illegal and this ruling was accepted globally.
Thirdly, China cannot claim sovereignty over the area by using historical claims because even its history and historical maps did not consistently and clearly define the Spratly Islands, Scarborough Shoal, and even the the Paracel Islands as its own territory.
Lastly, China cannot claim the South China Sea as its own lake and part of its territorial waters because it is not a lake and its not within their land boundaries. Even if China includes Taiwan as its territory, it is not enough to support a claim of sovereignty over the SCS, more so the WPS.
Grown up’s world may be too difficult for you to understand, different entity will have different claims, all claims sounds legit in their own way, the difference is, do you have enough power to back your claims up, just that simple, don’t lie to yourself that there is a good one and bad one cus there isn’t
@@therealoneisneo I dont know what you are talking about. Just spell this with your children R-E-S-P-E-C-T L-A-W.
@@kapamilyatalks5420 Hi I respect your opinion about the 2016 Arbitral Ruling. But as a Chinese who grew up in mainland China, I must point out that most Chinese believe in some sort of Social Darwinism, and they think that law can be (and will be) controlled by the stronger side of the conflict. So, in the scenario of a true invasion of Taiwan, they will not respect the arbitral ruling but try their best to defeat their so-called American imperialism and its "puppet nations" and establish a new order where the international laws and rules can be bent under their will.
I'm not writing this to scare you or someone else, but these are the words that I see on Chinese websites every day. You must have heard about the recent economic depression in China, sadly more and more people are craving a war against foreign nations (either the US or Japan), they believe if they win and establish a new world order, they will be richer and become the supreme race (sound familiar? yup third reich ideology are quite popular in poor Chinese social class). To be honest, the situation in China is getting more and more similar to that of the Japanese Empire before WW2, economic depression, radical nationalism and a dictator who refused to reform.
@@HowardZhang-gm2go I'm sorry, our Chinese circus clown got lost. Turns out he's here.
@@HowardZhang-gm2go I cant see any sense of what you are saying about. It's simple, respect LAW and I know Chinese knows that.
Where do I get this game?!
Where to buy that board please?
Ali Express 😂
@@stanleyconnor6898 lol
I love how Taiwan is the US's business. Not because it cares about Taiwan at all, but how it's trying to protect its own interests.
Doubt anyone would be a quote winner in any Taiwan invasion scenario.
PS - Bigger question regardless of ending would be the aftermath of the war. Questions like:
- Would USA quit trading with China for the next 20 years?
- Would US mine Chines ports?
- Would invasion cause a brain drain from Taiwan?
- Would China quit importing from USA?
- What would Japan do if their mainland was attacked?
- Would China use fishing fleet to send men and material across straight?
- Would South Korea sell arms like drones to Taiwan?
Would riots and cities burn here in the U.S. due to drafts
Would we be able to help Ukraine, push back Iran attacking our bases in the middle east.
Would our economy crash due to part shortages, and no chips from Taiwan. Think a few years back supply chain issues, and put a stop on all products.
Would you be able to fix your car, or afford gas. Could the dollar cash too.
What about attacks here in the U.S.
@@TheBuckeyeFarm next 20 years? only need 3 years, business back to normal, since you can't undo, what's for to hong on there for another 17 years?
Would US enter the war?
- China would fracture politically and possibly geographically and new leaders would be needing (and would) focus their concerns internally to shore up support and rehabilitate their political and economic control
- The USA is already in the process of on-shoring, near-shoring, and friend-shoring aka exiting China that would only continue while some trading would continue
- In order for China to have any chance of victory it would need to cut off outside aid which means they would need to attack about 5-10 additional nations simultaneously in addition to Taiwan (the same as Japan tried to blitz over all of their neighbors to secure critical war supplies) which they don't have the capability to pull off successfully either, but if they did all of those nations would respond in kind, and that includes Japan.
- Taiwan would be damaged but there would be a lot of money to be made in the reconstruction so no one would be going anywhere as Taiwan would remain/return to being a safe democratic country in very short order
- China would attempt to use anything that floats because it doesn't have enough airlift or sealift capacity and the million man swim would lead to a lot of casualties
- South Korea is gearing up to be a major force on the international arms market and they would have no issue selling to friendly nations like Taiwan
@@msytdc1577 stop throwing around opinions as if they were well-informed insights. Everything you said doesn't make the slightest sense. Where did you get that the US nearshoring is actually working? Research how the same thing happened with the sanctions on Russia, with European countries increasing their exports to Kyrgyzstan,Georgia and Azerbaijan by 2000% since the war in Ukraine began.
The same happened with the US and the miraculous increase in its imports from Vietnam, Thailand, Laos and Cambodia. China continues to sell to the USA in the same way, in the same way that Europeans continue to export goods to the Russians.
And the USA, despite all its efforts, is not managing to reindustrialize. Biden's push to bring semiconductor factories back to America has failed resoundingly. And this argument that China will fracture geographically is exactly the same argument I heard when Russia invaded Ukraine and what happened? Russia is more united than ever.
You, like other naive people, know nothing about the determination of these people, you think that they are artificial countries, that they are held together by some kind of tyranny that makes people who hate each other stay as one country but who wait for any opportunity to become 50 countries like the Balkans. Stop thinking that the whole world is the Balkans.
China also has allies. Although you are delusional and know nothing about it. Anyone who thinks that China would fight alone does not understand Chinese influence over Myanmar, Thailand, North Korea, Pakistan and most likely Russia, which would directly help China.
And South Korea would be the first country to be crushed in that war with North Korean artillery capabilities.
These war scenarios are child's play, and totally unrealistic. Anyone who knows the basics of the subject knows that it would be impossible for American nuclear submarines to enter the Taiwan Strait, firstly that the strait is only 50 meters deep at its deepest point, and therefore any nuclear submarine would be visible to the naked eye from helicopters and to planes. And secondly, the entire strait would be blocked by sensors and anti-submarine mines. This war would be completely catastrophic, and it would involve several other Asian nations. Thinking that all of Asia would unite against China is an American delusion that will be crushed by the complexity of reality. This would not be a localized war, as these stupid wargames think.
This would be WWII. The whole world would join this war. Good luck getting Africa to fight alongside the US in this war. Good luck making Latin America fight alongside the US in this war. Good luck getting the Arabs to support the US in this war. Wake up and see the reality, how many countries supported the sanctions on Russia? The entire Global South have supported Russia.
Do you really think the Global South would miss this unique opportunity to resolve its differences with the West if the mother of all wars occurred? Think again, no one would have anything to lose, it would be humanity's final war and we would all be finished.
It is not unlikely that Russia and North Korea might take advantage of this opportunity to invade South Korea and perhaps Alaska as well.
This isn't the full story. CSIS did several playthroughs. He mentions that the Japanese bases were integral in victory.
This scenario doesn't include the possibility of a precursor 2nd Korean War in which US assets are already engaged on the Korean peninsula, nor does it account for a possible scenario is which Chinese missiles have mitigated US force projection near Taiwan, the influence of Chinese information warfare disrupting Taiwan/Coalition efforts, or PLAN success in landing troops on the Northern island.
All we see here is a "best case scenario".
I'm for sure getting drafted if that happens
Most underrated comment
How exactly is a 2nd korean war gonna play out? North Korea is totally incapable of launching such a war and would not be able to defeat the South Korean army conventionally. They don't even have enough fuel to keep their army running, and now they are emptying their artillery shell stocks to Russia just to stay afloat. It likely wouldn't require US involvement at all. Unless you are suggesting that China launches an invasion of South Korea, in which case that war becomes just as big of a problem for China as it does for the US.
To all:
Taiwan was an aboriginal country. Netherlands was the first country to colonise Taiwan in 16 century. Dutch imported many Chinese from China as foreign labors to build Taiwan in 16 countries. Japanese colony from 1895-1945， and then Republic of China ( Taiwan, Republic Of China. ) took over rule of the island after Japan lost the war. Taiwan has Never controlled by People Republic of China ( P.R.C. established late in 1949 ) . Democratic Taiwan R.O.C was in UN until 1979. Please support Taiwan 🇹🇼 to be recognised by UN and WHO again . There are 2 Korea in UN and WHO , why UN and WHO has obeyed CCP China's demands?
中国在1895年和日本签订的《马关条约》是用的其他国家的领土？ 按你说的逻辑，荷兰殖民了台湾。 日本为什么不和荷兰签订殖民条约，而要和中国签订？
There were indigenous Chinese living in Taiwan along with the aborigines long before the Dutch (and Portuguese and Spanish) arrived. Taiwan was part of China when Japan and China fought the SinoJapanese war of 1894. The Chinese ceded ownership of Taiwan to Japan in the Treaty of Shimonu-seki and Japan controlled the island until the end of WWII when they surrendered to forces of Taiwan (Republic of China). After WWII when Chiang-kai Shek and Mao Tse Tung forces battled, the Nationalists were forced to evacuate from the mainland in 1949 and they fled to Taiwan. They set up a representative government there that included representation of all the provinces of the mainland. The US changed diplomatic relations in 1979 under President Jimmy Carter and set up an embassy in Beijing. The American Institute in Taiwan was created by congress to handle the job of an embassy in Taipei; it's still there. In creating the American Institute in Taiwan, the US also pledged military support to Taiwan via the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979. I lived in Taiwan for 7 years until 1989 and I believe a war between Taiwan and China would be a monstrously stupid move by the mainland. Taiwan is an economic jewel - the mainland needs Taiwan infrastructure and the mainland has benefited from business and intellectual capital ties since the mid-80s when relations began to thaw between the two parties. There are still many in Taiwan who believe that Taiwan is a part of China even though it has been in practice completely independent since the 1950s. Anyway, 2 cents here.
well said the history of the island is important understanding they are de-facto an independent country
@@daru0217 what utter nonsense your argument is baseless and has no validity
@@jamesditsworth3845 well said other then the 'there are still many in Taiwan who believe part of China' going by recent poll data that would more likely be '......still a FEW......' The vast majority particularly the young do not identify as being part of China any more its been several generation of de-facto independence
Japan: "what did I even do?"
a lot of old Chinese generation still hold grudges from WWII and Japanese imperialism
They have dozens of thousands of US troops.
我来告诉你日本干了什么，他杀了我们3500万中国人，如果他老老实实的还好，如果不老实，我们也不介意报仇
Make Taiwan free is US business. make Ryuku free is Chinese business. Ryuku is chinese ally occupied by Japan in 1879. Japan reown Ryuku in 1972 after ww2. But sovereignty still on UN side. and US military bases on Ryuku. if US and China have conflict in Taiwan. Ryuku will be the war place. China will avoid war on Chinese land. just like Korea war did. Sorry, Ryuku citizens. That is how big coutries trade land. Japan are the only invader in this topic.
Dear Japan defense force, offense is the best defense.
So how do drones factor in
the sad part about these games is that when he talks about losing a battalion, he's talking about up to 1000 murdered humans.
Not exactly. He's reffering to casualties, which includes wounded
Most would become prisoners of war, not killed.
This is war, what do you expect?
With this scenario, was there any information on how North Korea would react to the invasion of Taiwan? Because if Japan is bombed by China then that would bring in S. Korea in the fight due to pre-existing treaties. Did N.Korea have any impact to this or was it minimal?
China has a few million soldiers, and very easy to boost another 3-9 millions, for that 100 miles distance, China can win the war 3 times in a week. All other data is useless, China already study US military for so many years, it is easier to counter carriers and submarines near China.
Japan will not be bombed by China as long as they stayed away from Taiwan.
But South Korea's situation can be tricky because North Korea has defense treaty with PRC. The moment China or North Korea got invaded, they can automatically join the war. If South Korea provided military support to Taiwan, they can be subject to retaliation by North Korea, who can't wait to invade the South. And it'd be hard for China to hold NK on leash.
North Korea is in regime preservation mode, e.g. nuclear program. If China commences hostilities against Taiwan, South Korea goes into full alert, which probably deters North Korea. The question is would China prompt North Korea to take surprise offensive actions of some kind to begin a dilution of Allied forces. I doubt it. I suspect if North Korea is in on the war they start at the same time as China does in an attempt to overwhelm allied forces. Like Russia, this effort could evolve out of extensive military exercises by both countries. Like Russia, that would be the giveaway that the attack is coming. North Korea would be risking its regime while China could not devote itself to their preservation as they did in the Korean War. I think NK looks for arms deals with China to raise revenue. I don't think the NK regime risks losses in a fight with South Korea and US forces there. Deterrence has worked for decades.
I dont see China losing this war.
She has NO navy, you can grab a foot hold by air but resupply must be by sea .no one else’s ships , subs and planes can be around transports travel @ about 12 mph , that’s 8 hrs. @ sea .
So what is in invade? can US invade hawaii? 😓
Don't forget the Philippines contributions. Allowing US bases into increasing strategic sites.
China 0 wars
USA constant wars
You seem pretty chill with a country that tried to genocide you 100 years ago (really, I am not misusing the word)
Next thing you know those base gets bombed to oblivion, US forces falls back to Hawaii, Chinese forces move in and now you have forever PLA presence in Philippines, lol
@vlhc4642 and this is when world War three starts...
cannon fodder
Where can I buy the game?
I think it’s free if you go to your local recruitment center!
@@mikegate6764I can't imagine him coming back to this comment section years later and saying "got it :]"
Hate to say this but this simulation significantly underplays casualties the attackers typically takes in an urban amphibious assault.
1 battalion just won’t make it.
There’s also a scenario where US does not intervene….
CIV 7 looks great!
In non-digital form.
Every time I hear the word "military strategist", I think back to all the "military strategist" who "predicted" that Ukraine would fall in a week😂😂😂
And strategist who predicted that russia out of ammo & using shovel.
Also ukraine retake crimea 😂
Counteroffensive pfftt..
yeah all military strategists are the same
Funny west propaganda keep dreaming
I feel China really has no idea how daunting of a task it is to invade a country by sea. operation overlord was a huge logistical and manpower undertaking. All the while they had to trick the enemy (Germans) on where they might land.
That will not happen in this scenario. The US and its Allie’s will know well before hand when the invasion occurs because you have to have a build up on logistics.
No matter how much military the Chinese have. They have no experience in naval warfare or amphibious invasions in the modern era. The cost will be to much in the long run in equipment and lives.
So many factors weren't taken into consideration so I kinda really doubt the accuracy of this.
it's a war game, it has to simplify things in general but if you read the report it talks about how the majority of US loses of aircraft happen on the ground before they even take off cause of the lack of hardened bunkers and other weaknesses. MedCorps has also been told to get working on solutions for field medicine cause the golden hour from the GWOT isn't going to be a thing in a near peer conflict, Marines are being restructured around this conflict leading some to question their usefulness in other conflicts. Honestly I think IndoPaCom conflicts are being over-engineered for at the price of a potential SouthCom conflict preparedness.
I'm curious if the results look the same with a concurrent North Korea invasion of the South. I suspect that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be coincident with a North Korean advance. The importance of regional allies should not be understated.
Remember those sunk Russian ships? nato was giving Ukraine their rockets and using AWACs/Global Hawks to guide those missiles into Russian ships. Wouldn't you think Russia will return the favor?
@@mikejezek5214 with what technology? Russia is so advanced that it's dependent on it's soviet provisions 😂
That’s when the north gets promptly turned into glass.
@@AHeadlessChicken2008 You say it as if it wouldn't cause a massive humanitarian crises that the South Koreans are NOT willing to have to deal with.
Please sell a simplified version of this board game CSIS :(
Moral of the story, in war, no one wins.
Of course they do. Read some history books.
Taiwan 💙
Respect!
That dude looked like an US propagandist
Warmongering is american way of life
china literally says they will take taiwan using war
Why are they putting this information (i.e. loss scenarios) on the internet? I remember when a new station (I forgot which) put our military plans before the Iraq Invasion (to get them out of Kuwait).
I love that guy helping with the game.
Me too! He seems very sophisticated.
Does the game include a second war on the Korean Peninsula? It’s very likely
I want that board game so bad!!
Its clear from these exercises that Americans have no idea what they are doing....just like in Vietnam and Afghanistan where they lost badly
他的假設是
中國不動員，其他戰區不支援，只用東部戰區現有的人員及裝備
中國的攻船彈道飛彈是唬爛的，一枚都打不中
中國對美國的攻艦隱形轟炸機完全無法偵查、束手無策
中國空軍受制於台灣的上萬枚防空飛彈，無法取得空中優勢
中國只會用傳統武器
大概就是，把中國雙手雙腳綁起來，眼睛矇住，只用龐大的身軀來壓對方。
China COSCO owned Port of Kaoshiung.
So China PLA will attack Port of Kaoshiung right ?
CCP China is more of a threat than Russia, Ukraine showed how weak Russian conventional forces are.
Regional powers around China are the key, allies like Japan, Australia, Philippines et al... Need to triple up presence there for more unsinkable carriers...
Should have included the EDCA Bases too. Remember the Philippines and United States has Mutual Defense Treaty. An attack on one is attack on both. This is a handicapped game.😂
You'll realize the actual implications after America loses and signs ceasefire with China, but China refuse to sign one with you.
Yes, in some ways it was. But that is intentional as while this video showed one scenario when they do these war games they are plural, multiple scenarios are played out with various handicaps imposed on both sides in different games, the one represented in the video was just the most likely one. Another game could start out where the US gets super unlucky and loses 3 carriers in the first week (imposed by the scenario, not due to being the result of calculations, i.e. it is not an expected event), or where China is able to attack in a surprise move instead of human, signals, and technical intelligence giving away the build up weeks and months in advance, etc. This is done as the point of doing war games is to find where you are weak to improve, and to find where the opponent is weak to focus your efforts there in an actual conflict.
Minor factor.
where can I get this board game?
Not a single "war expert" in history has ever gotten anything right.
False
Let’s hope this war never takes place.
If they attack JDSF bases with US aircraft don’t you think the JDSF would enter the conflict? The Philippines, India, and Korea would also be encouraged to join I think. India could see it as an opportunity to attack in the north and have china fighting on two fronts. North Korea may feel inspired to invade south, then the US would also fight with South Korea. I think at that point it becomes WW3 because NATO and Australia may decide to join which would trigger Russia to fight with China and DPRK. Then NATO could finally mobilize in Ukraine. This is a thought experiment but it wouldn’t surprise me if at least some of this happens.
Yes, India would join that war. That's why QUAD(+) exists. Becareful the other accounts blazinchalice and jt3dw6vv4x trying to do some propaganda for China.
@@doom9603 True! So these hypotheticals that don’t include India, Australia, and Japan are useless.
@@doom9603 India will act in its own self-interest. I don't see why they would start a war with the PRC over Taiwan. QUAD is not a military alliance.
@@blazinchalice QUAD is India's interest and it's an security alliance -> military means. If Mainland China starts a war (PRC), then India joins the opposite side, as they're threatened
@doom9603 Wrong. It is not a pact, there is no mutual defense agreement. It's not Asian NATO.
You have not made any case for India going to war over Taiwan. They will not
Let's not forget this is the scenario from the perspective of an American... And it's conveniently victorious for the USA.... Sure.
So Taiwan don't have any plan or intention or capability to counterattack inside china at the same time? You have to give them their own medicine to taste so they will get feelings and realisation.
China can also attack Taiwan from inside as well. Since its inhabitants are pretty much a similar race, which they can assimilate well, which unfortunately made it much easier for spies to gather intelligence on military operations.
@@nostamors4705 there's also possibility of military coup in taiwan and hand the island back to avoid court martial for treason
@@abdiganiaden the dam is over 1000km inland.... that's new york to chicago.....
😂Look at Russia! Are they being attacked by Ukraine now? Will the United States send troops?😅
Nope, they can place their drone order on Alibaba early , but that's about it
You have not considered that China will initially put their forces guise as tourist etc months or even years earlier before the start of the invasion.
This war is not going to be start like a conventional D day invasion style... 😂😂😂
US propaganda machine
100% wishful thinking
LOl... Its not your enemies you should be worried about its your "Closest" friends that are the real security threat.
Nuclear bombs are not on your board?
Back in high school (many decades ago), we tried to play a very complex board game with lots cardboard tiles. We never did get far into the game. Besides using national resources to raise units, we also had to designate certain cities a logistic hubs (and only cities above a certain size can be designated as such), we also had to create supply depots along the line of advancement and leave troops to garrison it. Besides supply point, you also had foraging point for certain areas. If you are not careful, your army can disintergrate from starvation. Even if you are careful, if you try to go too deep into enemy territory, and to keep your troops fed, your 100,000 men army may be down to 60,000 troops at a battle just from troops loss assigned to guard your supply depots.
In the other scenario china threaten with nukes and america didnt help at all, lol