@@domainmojo2162 'positive net spend' Completely ignores their amortization and wage bill. Liverpool isn't 'moneyball' Liverpool just uses a data driven approach, it's not the same
I think Union Berlin also used Moneyball for signing players as they understand those West German clubs always took advantage against an East German club
The fact that Chelsea had to fight real hard and needed Mendy to turn into prime Manuel Neuer against Brentford just goes to show why this team is the real deal!
@@mnt0346 you're looking at it back to front. Their defence actually did their job (massively aided by the keeper mind) it was the rest of the team who lost their battles, their midfield couldn't cope with Brentfords approach.
Bill James has a degree in economics so, realistically, while he was working that job at the time he was a security guard in the same way Einstein was a patent clerk.
@@saltedgerman my comment is not ment to demean him but rather shed light on his love of statistics , baseball and the work that he put in despite the lack of support and the unfavourable conditions .
"Revolutionised" is a very strong word. Sacchi revolutionised football. Cruyff revolutionised football. Spaletti revolutionised football with his introduction of false 9.
The problem now is that everyone knows what Brentford are up to. So when they come in next for that 600k player, the selling team will be like... wait a minute.
they buy from lower leagues or discarded players that fit their own particular system, in the ocean Brentford swim in, it's a buyers market, always has been always will be.
You’d think that, but Brentford are buying to fit their specific set up. You could try to poach the sale as a rival or hold on to the player as the selling club, but it wouldn’t benefit you in the same way as it would Brentford. It’s also crucial to note that since promotion, transfer fees have risen substantially for Brentford as the buying club.
@@ankit99ize it would be a setback yes, but a minor one at that. They could easily invest only £100m and dominate the championship then build from there
@@ankit99ize Not hard to imagine. As a NUFC fan, we've been relegated twice and none of the fans abandon the club. Stadiums will still be at full capacity and we may actually enjoy our football more in a lower league. Even if we were to be relegated at the end of the season, we know we will be back. We are not glory hunters constantly asking for trophies or the manager to be sacked but we demand the players to give their all in every game.
They should learn to live with it. Developing players and selling them on for a profit is the only way a small club can live with the big boys these days. Ask Ajax or Sparta - they've been doing this for decades. Small clubs simply have to be selling clubs to compete with the big buying clubs. They need to rely on a steady stream of new blood moving though. It's worked well enough to take them to the PL, which is a remarkable achievement!
Most Brentford fans fully understand and accept that top talent will be sold on if the expected price is met. We know the club has already planned for that scenario and has a replacement (possibly even better) already lined up. Andre Gray -> Scott Hogan -> Neal Maupay -> Ollie Watkins -> Ivan Toney. Three different strikers scoring 25 or more league goals in the Championship in successive years. How many clubs can boast that at any level?
I remember 5 years ago, we were discussing the case of Midtjylland in a sports management class. Great to see it implemented at premier league level. Example of xG as a factor for transfers was overly simplistic and poor though.
Whilst I agree it was simple, and only one of several factors, we do need to remember that it's only an eight minute video and as such can't go into massive detail on everything.
I didn't understand that example, can you please elaborate? I think it's very interesting and I would appreciate if someone can help me to reach a better understanding. (I'm a non native English speaker jaja sorry)
@@TheMolloVision basically you have 2 strikers who’ve played the same minutes and taken the same shots. Joe scored 15 while Seb has scored 5. The important difference, however, is that Joe has been over preforming based on his expected stats, while Seb has been underperforming. The stat used on the example was xG, which indicates how many goals a player should have scored based on the shots they’ve taken. Joe has scored 15 goals from 10xg, meaning he might have been luck and faces weaker sides. Meanwhile Seb has 5 goals from 12 xG, meaning he’s been unlucky. What the example is saying is that a striker can get lucky and score 15 goals when they aren’t that good, while another player can go under the radar and only score 5 despite being the better player. You can then use this to buy the player who’s under the radar for cheaper. Brentford have done this a lot which has lead to massive profits, such as Watkins, Benrahma, Maupay and Konsa. All established premier league players Brentford acquired for cheap and sold for a high price. Hope this helps, if not feel free to ask me about anything. As stated above, it’s not a brilliant example to show money ball but it’s simple and quick to explain compared to others
Would anybody in the comments like to share a much more complex example of statistics being implemented to discover undervalued players? I've been really fascinated with Brentford and looking to pursue a career working with sport statistics.
I see a lot of similarities between Brighton and Brentford. Beyond both starting with the same two letters and playing in stripes, they are data driven clubs that sweep the market for bargains and prospects. They also both have fan owners who made money off gambling and analytics. They often go after the same players too, both tried to sign Maupay when he was in France and both approached Toney at Peterborough.
bro how are you telling me youtube is recomending me this now, 9 months after the vid never seen this channel but since we watch it in class it magicly comes up. Aint no way
The first major plot point of Moneyball wasn't Brand realising he could simply trade an expensive player, but that player becoming too expensive for the club. A simple trade would never have even inspired Beane to start thinking differently.
DePodesta (irl Brand) valued OBP, and realized that guys with high OBP AND low BA were still undervalued. but one key point that the movie doesnt show is that the moneyball a’s, especially the 2002 a’s, had a elite starting pitching staff. Low walk percentages, good predictive stats. thats ultimately what caused their success in the regular season. and 2002, which is the season that is being focused on, wasnt even the start of the moneyball movement. rather DePodesta and Beane had been employing this style of sabrmetrics lead management since 1998. which is why their homegrown talent was able to produce to their system.
In the mid 1980s one successful football club was applying adapted cricket statistic type analysis to its team. It brought in the best coach as they were relatively undervalued vs players but he and his staff would increase the net player value through tactics, nutrition, psychology (from cricket and athletics), training academy etc...This then led to bigger stadiums were were treated as property and shopping ventures (businesses in themselves) and ultimately mutli-sport franchise. This was over 30 years ago and well ahead of its time. I recall one striker they purchased cheaply as his goal tally was something like 8 in 30 games but this was due how he was being used as a target man for the smaller striker to score off (32 goals in 30 matches). This was only uncovered through repeated scouting. Changing the role of the striker created 22 goals in 30 games. They also used loans and player swaps to enhance the team and a higher profile B team through a big squad to create internal competition
Send Data Analysts to various leagues and compare stats you find relevent in your playstyle/position you want. Doing that you can look at xG, xA, Pass completion per 90 and so on The game also undervalues players not playing in top 5 leagues. For example I have a player with 160 CA. If he plays for Arsenal, he'll cost around £50-£60 Million. If he plays for Rosenberg he'll cost £10 million
Very good. Makes me wonder why my team, barnsley who also adopted the moneyball strategy are so terribly bad at it. Actually selling pinnock to Brentford for 2M and releasing Ivan Toney for nothing.
Probably not good at Moneyball or don’t do the last and first bit which is the “eye-test” . And another part, personality. No good having a player who has great stats but can’t speak the language or is only getting those stats in a winning team, when you’re a losing team. Stats don’t reveal all - you need to mesh them with traditional methods.
Am I the only one who thinks tifo have misunderstood the xG stat here? If seb is dramatically underperforming his xG, doesn't that mean he isn't scoring chances he should be, so his finishing quality and thus value should be lower? xG is independent of the player taking the shot.
If you hear it Correctly, you will notice that tifo says "if he work things well" Which means that he already has a good scoring position, just need to improve his finishing, which is better than buying someone else who doesn't even close to goal scoring things
Low G to High xG ratio isn't ideal, But Medium G to low xG isn't necessarily better. If a player creates 3 xG in a game and scores 1 goal, that is actually better than the player who creates 1 xG and scores 0.6 goals given the same role in the same team. even though the first player has 1/3 G per xG and the second has 6/10 G per xG His finishing is worse, but his raw output is better and the team has higher xG but more importantly G when he's on, even though they are less clinical
Don’t forget also the point in the video about having the right players around them to help create higher quality chances in good positions for that particular striker. It’s a team game, which is sometimes forgotten and why we’ve seen countless big money signings not able to cut it in the Premier League, especially when they come from leagues that aren’t as fast or physical. It’s possible that the striker who’s scored fewer goals is taking lots of shots from distance to mount up that xG total, e.g. as a result of the way the team plays. If a buying club sees that on the rare occasions the same player takes a shot closer in, it has an unusually high chance of resulting in a goal compared to other available players, they could find themselves a bargain fox in the box, provided they have the other forward players to get the ball into the right areas. In Brentford’s case, the club’s set up with the long term in mind and they’ve been at this to some degree for about ten years now. That’s why a new signing is usually met with “who?” and the player’s often given a lot of time playing matches with the B team or in cups than being immediately thrown into the deep end of the PL or Championship and expected to score or create 20 goals.
@@dxfifa Treat it like buying a classic car that needs a little bit of work. It’s easy for you to do the necessary work cos you got all the right contacts and tools around you. But others either don’t want a project car or would cost them too much for the tools and workers to do the work you can get done easily. So you buy as a bargain and they ignore it and don’t treat as a bargain.
I'm a San Francisco Giants fan and know the Oakland A's and moneyball strategy EXTREMELY well, so I am a huge fan of the approach Brentford has taken to get to the Top Flight. Since it's their first year in the Premier league and my first year following the Premier league, it's only natural that I follow Brentford and not a Top 6 club and enjoy the ride as the "Community Club" shocks the world.
Their set piece or arial threat is no joke. All the shots that Mendy saved against Brentford came in either from a long throw or an ariel ball into Penalty area. One reason why Brentford found it relatively easy to do that is the absence of Rudiger in these situations. In all the ariel balls, it was Malang Sarr who was required to task marking the players and he did miss two such opportunities, forcing strong saves from Mendy.
From team that's never made it to the top League before they seem to be doing quite fine. I just checked here in May of 2022 and they're sitting in 11th with one game left to play. That's pretty fantastic. To be one spot out of the top ten is amazing. Not a big fan of their uniforms though.
@@naturelover4148the whole league is weird fulham brentford and Brighton and Newcastle being above Chelsea and Liverpool is insane the beautiful game indeed
It's not really possible to just adopt it. It's all backed by data and analytics firms that the Brentford and Brighton owners own, who's methods are so tightly guarded that employees sign non disclosure agreements and often are told very limited amounts of information. Working in one department but having no interaction with the rest of the company.
3:06 It’s not much harder - SABR metrics are just far beyond anything football has. Computationally it’s more difficult bc there’s been no statistics developed in football that are advanced. Which has always surprised me
Not really true, the data that's a available online are basic and simplified. Also, SABR is quite simple, because the goal of Motorsports is simple: go fast. Football has a less obvious goal in terms of what is good, which makes making data usage a bit harder.
I see a lot of videos and articles about Brentford, but Brighton have been using a very similar playbook. The Brighton chairman Tony Bloom was even a business partner of Matthew Benham (they have apparently since had a falling out). One big difference is that Brighton have invested heavily in their academy while Brentford ditched theirs entirely.
They are similar but I think the difference is Benham saved Brentford from collapse and £10m of debt (massive for a league 2 side averaging 4000 at home) Brighton have a history of being a top flight club, drumming up income is easier. When I was a kid there were fan groups outside collecting donations after games, there was a real sense the club was dead on its feet. What Benham did is essentially what Football Manger and Fifa career mode players love doing, getting one of the weakest teams in the country and bringing them up to the top.
Simple: if you’re a scout, don’t look for speed, dribbling, passing, maybe look for vision and ability to put a shot or pass where needed BUT look for most of all, effectiveness. An effective player wastes fewer chances, get into better spaces and that’s the difference between a flashier less effective player and one that maximizes fewer opportunities. Also look for clutch, a player that raises their game in big games or key moments.
Brentford are like velociraptors. Or small dogs. In other words, they seem non-menacing (meh, just a newly promoted club) and then they suddenly rip you apart and the meanest thing alive. REALLY enjoying their entrance to the Prem!
My mom dated Billie Beane he went to Mt Carmel High School in San Diego, he invited me and my sister to be extras in the movie lol. Crazy how much of an impact one guy has had on sports around the world
The man in the thumbnail is Billy Beane played by Brad Pitt. Billy tried to assemble a base ball team on a lean budget by playing the moneyball. Since then moneyball is revolutionized by the low budget teams. If yoy want to know more about it, watch Moneyball movie.
Agree it doesn't have to be based on temporary form but I suppose many factors are considered such as opposition played against or even goalkeeping quality against
I thought that, it's really not as simple as the video makes out. I'd imagine they'll look at the players alongside the data, if it seems the player is getting in good positions but not finishing (hence high xG) then they may take a risk and hope his finishing improves but it might be that his teammates are doing the work and setting him up a lot and he is still missing so he might not be a great signing. Moneyball is great but I guarantee it'll be combined with some more standard scouting as well.
You’re all right. One statistic tells you nothing but for this example they would’ve been better off highlighting the other player as an option with superior finishing skills. In actual practice they would start by figuring out the profile of player they want e.g. a target man capable of working hard and pressing in defence. They would then identify several data points which should indicate whether a player fits this mould and how well. Triangulating all of these metrics they would then easily be able to filter the top flights in the world to finish with a list of names which fit the profile. Then the final step would be the traditional scouting method of watching them play to determine if the statistics painted an accurate picture
He's got bad ratings on FIFA. Should be 75 with maybe 87 potential. He's one of the brightest young players in the league but just because he plays for Brentford they give him a bad rating.
getting him for £600k has probably been one of our best bits of recent business. Norgaard got a long term injury just after we signed him and filled in straight away and now I'd say he's one of our strongest midfielders
if it wasn't for Ron Blindel plymouth chairman in 1966/7 lending brentford money the bees wre going to fold...QPR were ready to take over griffin park...always wish plymouth well as a consequence
Bizarre XG example. Surely a player massively underperforming their XG could reflect the fact they cannot finish. While a player outperforming it could show they are an excellent finisher who could be extremely effective if they operated in more dangerous positions.
It definitely can be interpreted the way you suggest, I think the way they’re interpreting it though is that the player with higher xG only has room to improve, where as the one with lower xG is already over performing and unlikely to get better. So if making a purchasing decision you will go for the one that the data suggests has more scope for improvement, especially if they’re a lot cheaper on the market. The fact is, the models available to Brentford given the owners background will be massively more complex than that. We wouldn’t have much of a clue so Tifo had to come up with something even if it isn’t perfect.
Liverpool don't really use this approach. In the premier League it's only Brentford and Brighton, both with English owners who bought their boyhood clubs. The Brentford owner worked for the Brighton owner, took a load of his secrets after an argument and began his own data company.
I don't quite understand the xG example for strikers. Seeing those numbers I would personally draw the conclusion that Joe not only is more valuable in the traditional sense, but is also more clinical in terms of converting his expected goals (because xG is not calculated for an individual player, but for the average player right?). Additionally, not accounting for positioning and ability to get in space, you could argue that on your team both strikers would have a similar xG which would again benefit Joe. So what am I missing here?
@@DT-bp2om I've always felt the shirts from my home league(Norwegian league) are so awful. They just scream low budget. Everything from the color paleet to the pattern. But I think much of the reason is also that they are filled to the brim with sponsors, unlike many premier League clubs that have only one giant sponsor like the Emirates or Nike.
Hi tifo! Awesome work as usual... A request for the next video- a history of FC Sheriff Tiraspol (I read somewhere that they have some shady background... Just wanted Tifo on the scene there😜)
The best thing Brentford (I’ll also add Brighton into this as well) is not to become the next Leicester or Southampton two clubs that were run really well at the end of the 2010s that are now playing efl football
I work at a school where Brentford spent millions setting up an academy but after they lost a few of there best players to top clubs they just closed it overnight with no warning to kids or staff . I was told by a Brentford staff member the owner just threw a tantrum and closed it down
Uxbridge high? I went there lol It wasn't really a tantrum. Just a business choice. In over a decade only 1 academy player had made it to the first team and was costing millions to run. For a small club battling debt, not only did it have to stop but it had to be replaced with something that worked Now, Mr Chelsea boy, Brentford are sitting comfortably above you in the table with B team players playing every week in the starting 11, some who grew up in Brentford. so id say he made a very smart choice.
Another club in Europe do the same : Midjylland, in Denmark, own by the same people The owners use very unorthodox method, like to recruit a player, talk in forum of the club to the fans their opinion withe the player As the owner say "Moneyballa is just about have the more information possible in order to take the best decision"
Brentford B is something not to be taken lightly, especially given the business of sport is so much more now in the wake of the internet. I could very easily see Brentford B becoming a model for other clubs to give their developing talent more exposure at less cost, while still keeping good play style continuity throughout the teams. A teams to make the money, B teams to travel and develop the experience outside of the limelight...while still being able to livestream games on RUclips. The future is possible. Ish.
QPR already copied it, but their problem is their dont recruit very well compared to Brentford, and their B team wont be as successful. I was at a B team game between the two sides recently and Brentford beat them 3-0
@@mrwabbit9576 Figures a team I was fond of when I first discovered the FA was a thing is trying to do something different...but still not getting it quite right. Figures.
But isn’t the fact that Seb scored only 5 out of an xG of 12 indicative of his wastefulness in front of goal, and the fact that Joe exceeded his xG means that he is a great poacher.
My thoughts exactly. xG, to me, is something that is higher if your midfield/wingers are good, because they provide high quality chances. The mark of a good striker would be his goals in EXCESS of his xG, which would indicate his ability to either finish good chances or create goals out of poor ones.
@@brzt4256 my club morecambe have a very high scorer but i would assume his xg is really low as he doesn't seem to get many decent chances often this season he has made chances for himself balls in from wide etc are poor but there is no way he is a bad player which acording to xg he would be
![Blox Fruits Dragon Rework Update [Full Stream]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/EqDAp8udhm0/mqdefault.jpg)
Moneyball is so fascinating. I love seeing small teams outsmart the massive clubs and outperform them on the pitch
Makes the league a whole lot more exciting to watch
It is so funny to watch.
@@domainmojo2162 'positive net spend'
Completely ignores their amortization and wage bill.
Liverpool isn't 'moneyball'
Liverpool just uses a data driven approach, it's not the same
I think Union Berlin also used Moneyball for signing players as they understand those West German clubs always took advantage against an East German club
PSG lol how is their manager not sacked
The fact that Chelsea had to fight real hard and needed Mendy to turn into prime Manuel Neuer against Brentford just goes to show why this team is the real deal!
Mendy is prime Neuer this past year, disgrace he wasn’t nominated for the Balon D’Or
Seeing Chelsea pushed back to camp in their half by Brentford was commendable, they are really well coached and drilled! Chelsea were v v lucky
Tbf, Chelsea’s back line was Malang Sarr, Chalobah and Christensen. Still a class performance from Brentford tho.
@@mnt0346 you're looking at it back to front. Their defence actually did their job (massively aided by the keeper mind) it was the rest of the team who lost their battles, their midfield couldn't cope with Brentfords approach.
For me brentford will be the real deal if they don't suffer second season syndrome
A random guard who loved baseball and was into statistics just revolutionised the sports world .
God I love baseball
and the moneyball film pictured that perfectly💯 what a sublime film.
Bill James has a degree in economics so, realistically, while he was working that job at the time he was a security guard in the same way Einstein was a patent clerk.
@@saltedgerman my comment is not ment to demean him but rather shed light on his love of statistics , baseball and the work that he put in despite the lack of support and the unfavourable conditions .
"Revolutionised" is a very strong word.
Sacchi revolutionised football.
Cruyff revolutionised football.
Spaletti revolutionised football with his introduction of false 9.
We're all simulated pieces in Thomas Frank's Football Manager 21 save.
Lmao
22*
Underrated comment.
and the best comment of the year goes to
lol
The problem now is that everyone knows what Brentford are up to. So when they come in next for that 600k player, the selling team will be like... wait a minute.
they buy from lower leagues or discarded players that fit their own particular system, in the ocean Brentford swim in, it's a buyers market, always has been always will be.
You’d think that, but Brentford are buying to fit their specific set up. You could try to poach the sale as a rival or hold on to the player as the selling club, but it wouldn’t benefit you in the same way as it would Brentford.
It’s also crucial to note that since promotion, transfer fees have risen substantially for Brentford as the buying club.
😅😅😅
No it’s to much work to do that they are more focused on their rivals or the other top clubs that challenge them.
My club Port Vale are doing it. We won't just buy a player for the sake of it. They also work on 75% success rate of signings.
"Why chose one striker when you can buy both" - Newcastle
Can't wait for their next £100m Joelington.
Imagine them going to Championship after this season
@@Banzybanz or £100M for Jesse Lingard ?
@@ankit99ize it would be a setback yes, but a minor one at that. They could easily invest only £100m and dominate the championship then build from there
@@ankit99ize Not hard to imagine. As a NUFC fan, we've been relegated twice and none of the fans abandon the club. Stadiums will still be at full capacity and we may actually enjoy our football more in a lower league.
Even if we were to be relegated at the end of the season, we know we will be back. We are not glory hunters constantly asking for trophies or the manager to be sacked but we demand the players to give their all in every game.
The amount of lowkey v. funny jokes in the background of the graphics i why we love Tifo. Doesn't go un-noticed, ty designer person!
thanks mate, now i am going on an easter egg hunt on the lowkey jokes in the background
@@yungtrashlord im lazy to look, what did u find
The outtakes from "we fixed the superleague "
@@kieronparr3403 unfortunately that's the only one i found as of now, hopefully someone can help me
Brentford have played impressive football. Felt like they could be good I saw them in the Man U game in the summer.
theyve lost their last 3 matches
Lol they thrashed Man U 4-0
@@Snorlaxx699 Then they came 13th, the Prem is a long game.
@@hhbattery4746 Thanks for reminding me of the folly of youth, where we left the stadium sad Man U only drew.
@@Snorlaxx699 They've just become the only team to defeat Man City in both games of this season they faced each other.
this is probably one of the most exciting newly promoted sides I've seen
Maaaan If the Glazers put this much effort into our club 🤦🏾♂️🤦🏾♂️🤦🏾♂️ Brentford deserves all the praise for their season so far👏🏾👏🏾
Brentford have a good club structure which is good. i know the fans hate them selling the best players they like.
They should learn to live with it. Developing players and selling them on for a profit is the only way a small club can live with the big boys these days. Ask Ajax or Sparta - they've been doing this for decades.
Small clubs simply have to be selling clubs to compete with the big buying clubs. They need to rely on a steady stream of new blood moving though.
It's worked well enough to take them to the PL, which is a remarkable achievement!
@@tullochgorum6323 BvB too
@@BigSmoke2.20 True - they are a great example!
Most Brentford fans fully understand and accept that top talent will be sold on if the expected price is met. We know the club has already planned for that scenario and has a replacement (possibly even better) already lined up. Andre Gray -> Scott Hogan -> Neal Maupay -> Ollie Watkins -> Ivan Toney. Three different strikers scoring 25 or more league goals in the Championship in successive years. How many clubs can boast that at any level?
@@tullochgorum6323 Leicester also can be considered in this category and look where they now challenging for the top 4 every season
Andre Gray bought for £620K
Sold for £12.4m
Difference: A lot of money
LOL!!
You can't say that's untrue tbf
that's like 2000% profit margins. What you're trying to say?
@@andimohammadthareq6687 I agree. I am just laughing at how they just say it's a lot of money and not say exactly how much money it was in profits
Maths tough you know
@@andimohammadthareq6687 not really, as it ignores wages and asset value and replacement costs
I remember 5 years ago, we were discussing the case of Midtjylland in a sports management class. Great to see it implemented at premier league level.
Example of xG as a factor for transfers was overly simplistic and poor though.
Whilst I agree it was simple, and only one of several factors, we do need to remember that it's only an eight minute video and as such can't go into massive detail on everything.
I didn't understand that example, can you please elaborate? I think it's very interesting and I would appreciate if someone can help me to reach a better understanding. (I'm a non native English speaker jaja sorry)
@@TheMolloVision basically you have 2 strikers who’ve played the same minutes and taken the same shots. Joe scored 15 while Seb has scored 5. The important difference, however, is that Joe has been over preforming based on his expected stats, while Seb has been underperforming.
The stat used on the example was xG, which indicates how many goals a player should have scored based on the shots they’ve taken. Joe has scored 15 goals from 10xg, meaning he might have been luck and faces weaker sides. Meanwhile Seb has 5 goals from 12 xG, meaning he’s been unlucky.
What the example is saying is that a striker can get lucky and score 15 goals when they aren’t that good, while another player can go under the radar and only score 5 despite being the better player. You can then use this to buy the player who’s under the radar for cheaper. Brentford have done this a lot which has lead to massive profits, such as Watkins, Benrahma, Maupay and Konsa. All established premier league players Brentford acquired for cheap and sold for a high price.
Hope this helps, if not feel free to ask me about anything. As stated above, it’s not a brilliant example to show money ball but it’s simple and quick to explain compared to others
@@MatthaeusGT great!! Thanks
Would anybody in the comments like to share a much more complex example of statistics being implemented to discover undervalued players? I've been really fascinated with Brentford and looking to pursue a career working with sport statistics.
I see a lot of similarities between Brighton and Brentford. Beyond both starting with the same two letters and playing in stripes, they are data driven clubs that sweep the market for bargains and prospects. They also both have fan owners who made money off gambling and analytics. They often go after the same players too, both tried to sign Maupay when he was in France and both approached Toney at Peterborough.
Botha runs fraud business like gambling
Mathew Benham used to work at Tony Bloom's sportsbetting company too - they fell out and he left to make his own.
It's great to see a small club break through like Brentford have, especially with a story we can all get behind.
Joe "Jojo" Devine 😂 Almost thought Alex was succesful in getting Joe to care about Jonjo
“so what do you do?”
“I’m a sleep coach.”
At midnight she barges into the room WHAT ARE YOU DOING??
-I'm asleep, coach
Good
@@Storiaron 👏🏾
She makes the players tired using her womanly charms ;)
@@onlythejugg Are those hands clapping, or is that a turkey? I can't see the emote right
@@Eidenhoek how did you see a turkey?
You better show us the "We Fixed the Super League" outtakes.
bro how are you telling me youtube is recomending me this now, 9 months after the vid never seen this channel but since we watch it in class it magicly comes up. Aint no way
Very impressive details on that 6:36 pitch whiteboard 👍
Imagine being signed by Brentford because a computer simulation determined you were a bargain
Vitaly Janelts story. He was benchwarming at bochum, went from a £600k player to a £15m player in 1 season
@@mrwabbit9576 Kinda like Brighton's Deniz Undav
Imagine being a player that wasn't signed!!
Whoever does the voiceovers for these videos is so important to me
We're gonna play Toney, why? Because he runs at the box!
i heard as part of ollie watkins going to villa they stocked the vending machines for two years
The first major plot point of Moneyball wasn't Brand realising he could simply trade an expensive player, but that player becoming too expensive for the club. A simple trade would never have even inspired Beane to start thinking differently.
DePodesta (irl Brand) valued OBP, and realized that guys with high OBP AND low BA were still undervalued. but one key point that the movie doesnt show is that the moneyball a’s, especially the 2002 a’s, had a elite starting pitching staff. Low walk percentages, good predictive stats. thats ultimately what caused their success in the regular season.
and 2002, which is the season that is being focused on, wasnt even the start of the moneyball movement. rather DePodesta and Beane had been employing this style of sabrmetrics lead management since 1998. which is why their homegrown talent was able to produce to their system.
That thumbnail is a masterpiece
In the mid 1980s one successful football club was applying adapted cricket statistic type analysis to its team. It brought in the best coach as they were relatively undervalued vs players but he and his staff would increase the net player value through tactics, nutrition, psychology (from cricket and athletics), training academy etc...This then led to bigger stadiums were were treated as property and shopping ventures (businesses in themselves) and ultimately mutli-sport franchise. This was over 30 years ago and well ahead of its time. I recall one striker they purchased cheaply as his goal tally was something like 8 in 30 games but this was due how he was being used as a target man for the smaller striker to score off (32 goals in 30 matches). This was only uncovered through repeated scouting. Changing the role of the striker created 22 goals in 30 games. They also used loans and player swaps to enhance the team and a higher profile B team through a big squad to create internal competition
Brad Pitt was so good in Moneyball.
True and Jonah Hill was great as well.
No bad actors they were all very good.
Love it, great approach and realization of the financial situation and size compared to competition.
Brentford is the ultimate football hipster dream team. 😂
how so? - I don´t get the joke :)
This is cool but how do I do this in Football Manager
You're still getting fm'ed in the end 😂
Callum Wilson
How do I do this in FIFA 🤔
@@Maj1794 fifa is easier to do this if you do your research in career mode
Send Data Analysts to various leagues and compare stats you find relevent in your playstyle/position you want. Doing that you can look at xG, xA, Pass completion per 90 and so on
The game also undervalues players not playing in top 5 leagues. For example I have a player with 160 CA. If he plays for Arsenal, he'll cost around £50-£60 Million. If he plays for Rosenberg he'll cost £10 million
Very good. Makes me wonder why my team, barnsley who also adopted the moneyball strategy are so terribly bad at it. Actually selling pinnock to Brentford for 2M and releasing Ivan Toney for nothing.
Probably not good at Moneyball or don’t do the last and first bit which is the “eye-test” .
And another part, personality. No good having a player who has great stats but can’t speak the language or is only getting those stats in a winning team, when you’re a losing team. Stats don’t reveal all - you need to mesh them with traditional methods.
Looks like Joe is interested after Alex's tedtalk
Was eagerly waiting for this video thank you so much Tifo!!
Am I the only one who thinks tifo have misunderstood the xG stat here? If seb is dramatically underperforming his xG, doesn't that mean he isn't scoring chances he should be, so his finishing quality and thus value should be lower? xG is independent of the player taking the shot.
If you hear it Correctly, you will notice that tifo says "if he work things well"
Which means that he already has a good scoring position, just need to improve his finishing, which is better than buying someone else who doesn't even close to goal scoring things
Low G to High xG ratio isn't ideal,
But Medium G to low xG isn't necessarily better.
If a player creates 3 xG in a game and scores 1 goal, that is actually better than the player who creates 1 xG and scores 0.6 goals given the same role in the same team. even though the first player has 1/3 G per xG and the second has 6/10 G per xG
His finishing is worse, but his raw output is better and the team has higher xG but more importantly G when he's on, even though they are less clinical
Don’t forget also the point in the video about having the right players around them to help create higher quality chances in good positions for that particular striker. It’s a team game, which is sometimes forgotten and why we’ve seen countless big money signings not able to cut it in the Premier League, especially when they come from leagues that aren’t as fast or physical. It’s possible that the striker who’s scored fewer goals is taking lots of shots from distance to mount up that xG total, e.g. as a result of the way the team plays. If a buying club sees that on the rare occasions the same player takes a shot closer in, it has an unusually high chance of resulting in a goal compared to other available players, they could find themselves a bargain fox in the box, provided they have the other forward players to get the ball into the right areas. In Brentford’s case, the club’s set up with the long term in mind and they’ve been at this to some degree for about ten years now. That’s why a new signing is usually met with “who?” and the player’s often given a lot of time playing matches with the B team or in cups than being immediately thrown into the deep end of the PL or Championship and expected to score or create 20 goals.
@@dxfifa Treat it like buying a classic car that needs a little bit of work. It’s easy for you to do the necessary work cos you got all the right contacts and tools around you. But others either don’t want a project car or would cost them too much for the tools and workers to do the work you can get done easily. So you buy as a bargain and they ignore it and don’t treat as a bargain.
I'm a San Francisco Giants fan and know the Oakland A's and moneyball strategy EXTREMELY well, so I am a huge fan of the approach Brentford has taken to get to the Top Flight. Since it's their first year in the Premier league and my first year following the Premier league, it's only natural that I follow Brentford and not a Top 6 club and enjoy the ride as the "Community Club" shocks the world.
Their set piece or arial threat is no joke. All the shots that Mendy saved against Brentford came in either from a long throw or an ariel ball into Penalty area.
One reason why Brentford found it relatively easy to do that is the absence of Rudiger in these situations. In all the ariel balls, it was Malang Sarr who was required to task marking the players and he did miss two such opportunities, forcing strong saves from Mendy.
Wow, so wonderful video. Many more clubs should do this.
The way that you completely avoided explaining what Xg is while trying to use it to explain moneyball was pretty amazing
As both a baseball and football fan, I loved this video :)
These videos are so interesting. I really got into football late in life but I am legit hooked now. Ha ha
Any other United fan get recommended this after the 0-4 thrashing
Great video. Really engaging. Made me go look for the “we fixed the Super League” video too
The content is so good. The podcast is often hilarious.
From team that's never made it to the top League before they seem to be doing quite fine. I just checked here in May of 2022 and they're sitting in 11th with one game left to play. That's pretty fantastic. To be one spot out of the top ten is amazing. Not a big fan of their uniforms though.
Hopefully Brentford will be in the Premier League for many years to come, very enjoyable team to watch!!
Maybe someday they will emulate the Leicester 2015-16 magic!😅
@@naturelover4148the whole league is weird fulham brentford and Brighton and Newcastle being above Chelsea and Liverpool is insane the beautiful game indeed
It’s really good to see and I imagine most clubs will adopt this approach in the future
Big clubs don't need to otherwise it would be boring
It's not really possible to just adopt it.
It's all backed by data and analytics firms that the Brentford and Brighton owners own, who's methods are so tightly guarded that employees sign non disclosure agreements and often are told very limited amounts of information. Working in one department but having no interaction with the rest of the company.
3:06 It’s not much harder - SABR metrics are just far beyond anything football has. Computationally it’s more difficult bc there’s been no statistics developed in football that are advanced. Which has always surprised me
Do you have an opinion regarding StatDNA ..the company Arsenal bought a few years back
@@denverjohnson5662 good data, bad utilisation
Not really true, the data that's a available online are basic and simplified. Also, SABR is quite simple, because the goal of Motorsports is simple: go fast.
Football has a less obvious goal in terms of what is good, which makes making data usage a bit harder.
So far they do a very good job. I watch the game vs Arsenal,Liverpool & Chelsea. In all of it their performance is very very good 👍👍👍
David vs Goliath principle is and will always be fascinating!
Outsmarting the seemingly better ones rocks🤙🏻.
Not a surprise that this was the team that took a chance on Eriksen
I see a lot of videos and articles about Brentford, but Brighton have been using a very similar playbook. The Brighton chairman Tony Bloom was even a business partner of Matthew Benham (they have apparently since had a falling out).
One big difference is that Brighton have invested heavily in their academy while Brentford ditched theirs entirely.
They are similar but I think the difference is Benham saved Brentford from collapse and £10m of debt (massive for a league 2 side averaging 4000 at home)
Brighton have a history of being a top flight club, drumming up income is easier. When I was a kid there were fan groups outside collecting donations after games, there was a real sense the club was dead on its feet.
What Benham did is essentially what Football Manger and Fifa career mode players love doing, getting one of the weakest teams in the country and bringing them up to the top.
@@mrwabbit9576 yoane wissa
Bloom almost made Union SG Belgian champions with 2nd & 3rd division players.
Tifo releases video about money.
Toney: “And I Took That Personally”
Simple: if you’re a scout, don’t look for speed, dribbling, passing, maybe look for vision and ability to put a shot or pass where needed BUT look for most of all, effectiveness. An effective player wastes fewer chances, get into better spaces and that’s the difference between a flashier less effective player and one that maximizes fewer opportunities. Also look for clutch, a player that raises their game in big games or key moments.
This video is so much more interesting when compared to the new Tifo video about Ronaldo and Man United
It's not just about collecting stats, it is mainly about how you interpret them.
Just watched the movie yesterday, and started a moneyball save on FM today in the moring. Great timing TIFO
Brentford are like velociraptors. Or small dogs. In other words, they seem non-menacing (meh, just a newly promoted club) and then they suddenly rip you apart and the meanest thing alive. REALLY enjoying their entrance to the Prem!
Agreed. Liverpool and Chelsea games were lit.
Omg look at some of the players they sold , they really are a diamond miner
My mom dated Billie Beane he went to Mt Carmel High School in San Diego, he invited me and my sister to be extras in the movie lol. Crazy how much of an impact one guy has had on sports around the world
Could TIFO do a video on "How a players potential is judged?"
cool breakdown, this was a good watch
Where did the figure of £7.2 million for Watkins come from? Most sources have it at around 1.8 million?
6:38 I see what you did there 😂😂😂
I really like brentford as a club and this way of thinking they have maximised their club so well.
Can't tell if you're getting better at these portraits or if Thomas Frank just suits your artist but it's very accurate!
COYB
6:55 why is midtjylland so north...?
Yes ! Brat Pitt on the thumbnail... Fits perfectly
Rasmus has a great ted talk on this
The man in the thumbnail is Billy Beane played by Brad Pitt. Billy tried to assemble a base ball team on a lean budget by playing the moneyball. Since then moneyball is revolutionized by the low budget teams. If yoy want to know more about it, watch Moneyball movie.
Very nice! Thanks!
Bad example with the XG as there is much more to it than that. An XG of 12 goals with an output of 5 can also show poor finishing
Agree it doesn't have to be based on temporary form but I suppose many factors are considered such as opposition played against or even goalkeeping quality against
I thought that, it's really not as simple as the video makes out. I'd imagine they'll look at the players alongside the data, if it seems the player is getting in good positions but not finishing (hence high xG) then they may take a risk and hope his finishing improves but it might be that his teammates are doing the work and setting him up a lot and he is still missing so he might not be a great signing. Moneyball is great but I guarantee it'll be combined with some more standard scouting as well.
I agree. Rob Earnshaw would've had an amazing expected goals score! I guess you need to combine that with a player's long term goals/xG percentage
Agree, it’s complete none sense.
You’re all right. One statistic tells you nothing but for this example they would’ve been better off highlighting the other player as an option with superior finishing skills.
In actual practice they would start by figuring out the profile of player they want e.g. a target man capable of working hard and pressing in defence. They would then identify several data points which should indicate whether a player fits this mould and how well. Triangulating all of these metrics they would then easily be able to filter the top flights in the world to finish with a list of names which fit the profile. Then the final step would be the traditional scouting method of watching them play to determine if the statistics painted an accurate picture
The video needs a better description of what 'expected goals actually means. Otherwise, perfect as usual.
Vitaly Janelt?
I remember him from an RB Leipzig career mode save
Yeah bro he’s class
@@tomfoolerybeats4782 yeah he was really good
He's got bad ratings on FIFA. Should be 75 with maybe 87 potential. He's one of the brightest young players in the league but just because he plays for Brentford they give him a bad rating.
getting him for £600k has probably been one of our best bits of recent business. Norgaard got a long term injury just after we signed him and filled in straight away and now I'd say he's one of our strongest midfielders
@@jamesp2694 Brentford have been very savvy with a lot of their transfer dealings
Didn't work against Burnley yesterday at turf moor!
Small correction: His name is Kristoffer Ajer, not Kristoff.
It does help that Brentford are a London club , here at Plymouth we've always found it hard to get players down here
Your a great club you beat us today 👍
@@gloriousrevolutionary2306 Ipswich?
@@thejannerofplymouth3654 Ye🚜
@@gloriousrevolutionary2306 was a good game ... both sets of fans loud and proud 👏
Cheers
if it wasn't for Ron Blindel plymouth chairman in 1966/7 lending brentford money the bees wre going to fold...QPR were ready to take over griffin park...always wish plymouth well as a consequence
Bizarre XG example. Surely a player massively underperforming their XG could reflect the fact they cannot finish. While a player outperforming it could show they are an excellent finisher who could be extremely effective if they operated in more dangerous positions.
It definitely can be interpreted the way you suggest, I think the way they’re interpreting it though is that the player with higher xG only has room to improve, where as the one with lower xG is already over performing and unlikely to get better. So if making a purchasing decision you will go for the one that the data suggests has more scope for improvement, especially if they’re a lot cheaper on the market.
The fact is, the models available to Brentford given the owners background will be massively more complex than that. We wouldn’t have much of a clue so Tifo had to come up with something even if it isn’t perfect.
Absolutely love this channel and Brentford and Liverpool who have mastered this approach with so much success
Liverpool don't really use this approach. In the premier League it's only Brentford and Brighton, both with English owners who bought their boyhood clubs. The Brentford owner worked for the Brighton owner, took a load of his secrets after an argument and began his own data company.
I don't quite understand the xG example for strikers. Seeing those numbers I would personally draw the conclusion that Joe not only is more valuable in the traditional sense, but is also more clinical in terms of converting his expected goals (because xG is not calculated for an individual player, but for the average player right?). Additionally, not accounting for positioning and ability to get in space, you could argue that on your team both strikers would have a similar xG which would again benefit Joe.
So what am I missing here?
Thumbnail: Brad Pitt
Me: *confused screaming*
6:38 - what’s that on the set piece whiteboard then? 🤣🤣🤣
Would be cool to look at the model FSG does VS Brentford. Obviously vastly different $$ but same concept
Moneyball movie is so good, even for someone that doesn't watch baseball lol
Sleep Expert? ... Wow, I think I've finally the career that I was born to do... thanks for this TIFO!
Just a bus stop in Hounslow!
🐝
Can Tifo football make a vid about how only rich clubs have nice looking jerseys?
Lol. Does that mean Newcastle will get a style upgrade now? Don't think Brentford's are that bad TBH.
@@DT-bp2om I've always felt the shirts from my home league(Norwegian league) are so awful. They just scream low budget. Everything from the color paleet to the pattern. But I think much of the reason is also that they are filled to the brim with sponsors, unlike many premier League clubs that have only one giant sponsor like the Emirates or Nike.
Hi tifo! Awesome work as usual... A request for the next video- a history of FC Sheriff Tiraspol (I read somewhere that they have some shady background... Just wanted Tifo on the scene there😜)
Loved the thumbnail.
Great one
We need videos like this before the season starts. Not after success.
The best thing Brentford (I’ll also add Brighton into this as well) is not to become the next Leicester or Southampton two clubs that were run really well at the end
of the 2010s that are now playing efl football
Great video!
I work at a school where Brentford spent millions setting up an academy but after they lost a few of there best players to top clubs they just closed it overnight with no warning to kids or staff . I was told by a Brentford staff member the owner just threw a tantrum and closed it down
Uxbridge high? I went there lol
It wasn't really a tantrum. Just a business choice. In over a decade only 1 academy player had made it to the first team and was costing millions to run. For a small club battling debt, not only did it have to stop but it had to be replaced with something that worked
Now, Mr Chelsea boy, Brentford are sitting comfortably above you in the table with B team players playing every week in the starting 11, some who grew up in Brentford. so id say he made a very smart choice.
Another club in Europe do the same : Midjylland, in Denmark, own by the same people
The owners use very unorthodox method, like to recruit a player, talk in forum of the club to the fans their opinion withe the player
As the owner say "Moneyballa is just about have the more information possible in order to take the best decision"
they're mentioned throughout the video, they're linked to Brentford through the owner and some of the staff.
Brentford B is something not to be taken lightly, especially given the business of sport is so much more now in the wake of the internet. I could very easily see Brentford B becoming a model for other clubs to give their developing talent more exposure at less cost, while still keeping good play style continuity throughout the teams. A teams to make the money, B teams to travel and develop the experience outside of the limelight...while still being able to livestream games on RUclips.
The future is possible. Ish.
QPR already copied it, but their problem is their dont recruit very well compared to Brentford, and their B team wont be as successful. I was at a B team game between the two sides recently and Brentford beat them 3-0
@@mrwabbit9576 Figures a team I was fond of when I first discovered the FA was a thing is trying to do something different...but still not getting it quite right. Figures.
But isn’t the fact that Seb scored only 5 out of an xG of 12 indicative of his wastefulness in front of goal, and the fact that Joe exceeded his xG means that he is a great poacher.
My thoughts exactly. xG, to me, is something that is higher if your midfield/wingers are good, because they provide high quality chances. The mark of a good striker would be his goals in EXCESS of his xG, which would indicate his ability to either finish good chances or create goals out of poor ones.
@@brzt4256 my club morecambe have a very high scorer but i would assume his xg is really low as he doesn't seem to get many decent chances often this season he has made chances for himself balls in from wide etc are poor but there is no way he is a bad player which acording to xg he would be
glad it’s not just me. tito even seem to agree that good strikers out perform their xg in their xg video
Great video 👍
Been saying to myself for weeks how it's uncharacteristic of Tifo to take this long to make a video on Brentford
6:35 ??? nice drawing
saw the thumbnail and thought Brad Pitt had shares in the club
Barnsley do the same thing, just not as well. You`d think we`d be much better at it as Billy Beane is an investor in us.