The grey market is the least greedy. The worst greed is at the AD’s. Swiss firms tripling their margins is greedy, not grey market dealers making 10% to 20% is not greedy. It never was.
@@sinesaii Grey market is totally greedy. You don’t think on their private chat groups there isn’t price fixing going on? There is total collusion to artificially inflate prices. Look at all the Batman’s out there..the price should be significantly lower than where it is.
I agree. There is a fatigue that has set in the watch collector world. That is reflected in the downward trend of prices. Rolex has lost its lustre more than any other brand, especially among collectors. People are turning to less expensive watches for variety and practicality, and a general skepticism now toward the standard higher end watches of the past couple of decades.
No other brand but Rolex has worked so diligently and systematically to alienate customers. Perhaps that was an unintended consequence of dealer snobbishness, but it happened anyway and now in a buyers market, they have to make up for lost sales and the bad taste in the mouths of purchasers, would-be and real.
I am a watch collector that fell out of love with Rolex myself. I traded my pieces in for other pieces. Don't give a toss about buying another Rolex. Partially blame the prevalence of replicas and lack of exclusivity wearing them. Honestly no one gives a shit about Rolex
@@SavageKillaBeeshaha BS. Nobody cares about Rolex?? If that were actually the case then you’d be able to walk into an AD and buy one. You seem envious and bitter
I would agree that Rolex has lost more brand equity than any other brand, but people are still buying grails. I am fascinated to see what Rolex does. Their reputation has changed so much. It definitely has gone from a prestige to a douche watch. I never would have expected that.
There's a saying in stocks and shares investing, "If a normal person starts talking to you about shares then you're in a bubble and it's time to sell." This is exactly the same for all investments.
Good point. The average guy doesn’t realize he is being manipulated. They sell when the market appears to be crashing,and buy when stocks are high. The system is rigged.
I have to agree. My interest in watches has completely vanished. I think about the other things I could buy for half the price that provide way more enjoyment and value. For example: A slick new firearm that you can take to the range, clean, take apart, etc. Example ii: A mini bike or an ATV which again is half the price of a luxury watch sometime a quarter. These items provide way more fun and enjoyment than a mechanical watch.
I’m glad people like you are starting to go back to what brings them joy as that is how it should be. Like John P said, if the content about watches is all about the financial side of the watch market it’s not really about the love of horology anymore. What will be left will be true watch aficionados that get as much joy from their timepieces as others do with their guns, atv’s etc. life is getting back to normal.
Or if you are thinking of a watch to accessorize and up your appearance, you can get two or three really nice suits and a couple of shoes to go with them, for the price of a used watch. My thoughts.
Well said, I believe I’ve done my personal full cycle of watch collecting. I love watches but have realised there’s much more to life that expensive watches. I’m revisiting an old hobby when I was a teen and that was sometime ago 😂, RC Boats. Been out of the hobby for decades and electric is all in, what a change. For my 20k watch I can buy a few boats, take a great holiday abroad and have a modest watch for 3-5k and other stuff too.
Inflation is the biggest threat. Disposable incomes are contracting. Paying a mortgage, paying your kids college tuition, and have you seen the price of cars? These are more important than the latest watch.
That really depends. Not everyone needs a car. I made the mistake of buying a 2024 model, but I will not do that again. Watches are a better item to waste money on as opposed to cars. Of course, the mortgage or universities comes first, but only rich people have children these days. Many, many people do not.
Vlogger demand is not an excuse to produce more watches. There are plenty of choices, the problem is most contributors are talking about the same thing. And that's the issue here, same brand overexposure.
@@Lundpc01 Disagree. John is an intellectual guy, not just a watch collector. If you listen and pay attention to what John says, he makes tons a sense, and a very bright young man.
Even when the hype was there most brands barely did any innovating. Why would/should we care how much billion dollar companies are selling. 😂 The pre-owned market is doing just fine, especially if you didnt buy into overhyped watches.
Right now is a good time to buy pre-owned in all markets. I went to Japan in 2023 and 2024, and I was able to get an Omega Dynamic Chrono for $1,500 in 2023. In 2024, I was able to buy a silver-dial Omega Speedmaster (no box, no papers) for $1,100 USD and an IWC Mark XVIII for under $2,500. I didn’t look hard enough, but I’m sure I could have bought a Navitimer for under $3,500. For the more affordable options, on eBay, I found many Citizen Fugu models for under $200, which is insane for such a very collectible watch. If you can buy Vintage I seen nice King Seiko models for under 500. I seen very deep discounts on Frederique Constant also very good watches. Personally I would stay away from Rolex, hyped up Omegas and look for alternatives.
A lot of enthusiasts are raking in cash, but the rest of us are hurting in this economy. I find manufacturers are less likely to take risks in times like these.
Agree. I think W&W was boring because many brands held back designs - their data already showed slowing economies around the world. I usually agree w our host but I say - except for a watch you really want new at retail - wait. Prices are going to drop a lot more.
Definitely! I have added 13 to the collection over the past few years. Some of their earlier pieces are some of the best values out there right now IMO. I've even added a few PM versions and the premium over the stainless versions was laughably small. I won't be sad if there is a softening of prices and I can add a few more!
I used to post in Watch Crunch. But I haven’t lately for some reason. But when I walked into a motorcycle shop and saw that my Omega Aqua Terra was the same price of a decent motorcycle, my watch suddenly didn’t feel so special.
I am loving the chilled state of the market now, I can now buy watches to satisfy me! I even said that Hodinkee was hyping watches with the Talking Watches Episodes, sure they opened my eyes and my mind to so much but we were talking money like it was nothing, vintage watches were so high price wise and now, the market seems more reasonable on so many non popular watches, relative to current retail prices. And the retail prices of now have not changed much in the last 5 years, hope I am correct? I saw a Breitling Top Time Panda for like 3k today and there are so many watches with that kind of a price tag. I cannot prove it but I feel like the peak of Hodinkee and so on, vintage watches moved from a reasonable bargain which is why enthusiasts moved to them in first place and then moved towards something, well, quite high. Your take on this next video could be cool. I also want to add; Hodinkee's talking watches is like an industry darling amongst geeks, it is an asset, so why aren't they using it as a market penetration and development tool? Thanks for the great conversation by the way!
The watch industry needs to be more innovative and as one example should fix the issue of bracelets and straps. So many are inferior don’t have quick exchange and have limited adjustments and usually no on the fly adjustments. Look at how Apple completely figured out their strap opening up a huge third party business opportunity for straps. Contrast this with the pathetic state of affairs of the mighty Swiss and watch industry who still after so many years have a mess.
Speaking of brands dealing with issues, Omega now has a milenaese bracelet on the Bond and we are wondering if it would be so when the public version is releases, now that in my opinion will be clever cost cutting. I have seen a few mad comments on that, it may bite them in the A
There are hundreds…thousands…of interesting watches out there worthy of comment. 50s, 60s, 70s, 80s. Confusing the industry with what’s interesting is what can make things seem stale I think.
True but unfortunately the brands don’t advertise for their out of production watches. Hard for companies to continue a watch blog without advertisers.
I resemble the COVID enthusiast, falling into the hobby during lockdown and after digging out an old Victorinox I hadn’t worn in years. 4 years and 24+ watches later, I’m slowing my purchase pace and am following a 1 in 1 out policy.
I went from one watch to seven in six months. All between 600$&1000$ so far. They're not Omega but they look great & keep good time. Tag & Bristling next..
If I were looking to buy a luxury brand right now,( and I am) Given all the signs that the economy is due for a major correction, I’d hang on to my money and wait for the panic selling and or major slashing of new prices. I have a feeling the waiting list at a lot of dealers are going to disappear.
You spent 8 minutes warming up then got to the pt - it’s the major economies around the world tanking. And fears that if the U.S. vote goes wrong in Nov it will get much, much worse. I say other than getting watches new at retail, keep your powder dry - prices have much further to drop.
Social media basically meant the majority want to buy and wear the same watches at any price point. It’s not like 10 years ago where people went to an AD tried something on and left with what they liked not worrying about specs, recommendations, resale.
I'm lefthanded, and I just want the goddamn lefty Rolex GMT at retail, but all these pricks keep buying it to stow for "investment" rather than wear it.
Agree 💯 Many new “collectors” were more interested in trading the watches than keeping the watches. It’s like those guys that never kicked a ball in their life but love English premier league football (soccer) for the betting or the excuse to head to the pub with their mates. Collecting is about the watches and about the community. Brands and Authorized dealers have failed to foster communities. They are coke and driven by immediate profits and sometimes by pure greed. Authorized dealers play games by forcing bundling deals. Brands know they they do it but either don’t care or are afraid of the ADs. So yeah, this is no big surprise. Brands and ADs need to eat humble pie and try to foster communities now. They need to beg forgiveness from customers the dicked around. And they need to start innovating and stop mass producing. New wishes from Singapore 🇸🇬
Superb video John, I fully concur with your analysis that the watch industry is stagnating. Do you think we will see a quantum leap in movement technology for mass production (like the Spring Drive) anytime in the near future?
Omega's spirate movement is the closest to what can be qualified as a breakthrough. Shame it didn't get the attention it deserved. Might be related to early production issues though.
I collect a specific type of watch and primarily a specific make and model and I’m collecting more than ever right now. It’s been grail after grail over here. Collectors are still going to collect. Speaking of the Aqua Terra Ultralight you mentioned, I saw one earlier this year at an Omega Boutique. The materials are very interesting and it was indeed crazy light. But it’s outside my wheelhouse. The technology and material science involved won’t interest people in it for the investment angle. But it was a very cool watch. And it was available.
The RUclips algorithms didn’t help…say Rolex, get more views, feed the hype, the whole thing fed upon itself. Interesting videos on other brands didn’t get the views, plus plenty of people jumped on the bandwagon. The best alternatives to these hype watches….its got to the stage you can guess the alternatives pre watching.
Brands like omega who did price increases over 4 times (plus squeezed dealer margins) overstepped during the good times and it’ll come back to bite them during this correction.
People do not want to go on a watch journey. Most of us just want the one watch and not to be forced into getting a number of lesser watches to get the one wanted watch.
Preowned prices are definitely crazy low right now, the craziest I've seen them since the early 10s. I've taken an absolute bath on my Grand Seiko GMT compared to what I paid preowned 3 years ago. GS in general seems to be getting slashed to pieces in the secondhand market -- I wouldn't be surprised if they make a 180 in their retail strategy and start making everything waitlist only in the next few years.
@John I do not agree with you when you say media outlets have nothing to talk about; This hobby is not all about new watches, besides, I am disappointed yearly with most releases, therefore, we need other topics; How about topics like What is a chain and fusee, understanding the G.S Evolution 9 Automatic calibre, how the spring drive really works, a deep dive into Debethune etc etc There is so much content I could make up and would love to but I am not sure about my future as a horology journalist, i would love to get into it but input vs reward is the issue
That information exists online. Zenith made a chain and fussed watch years ago, and I recall looking up the mechanism and how it worked. It is not too complex, but definitely requires more skill than a free sprung balance.
The push to accumulate is diminishing. A daily rotation for the gram is a lot less appealing as the economy continues to flatline and prices keep going up.
Another Seamaster reference to the already over saturated catalog. If I go with Omega it will be something from the 60s and 70's. Modern Omega doesn't do a thing for me and Omega's marketing is embarrassing. They come off as more of a fashion brand now. Omega is to busy ass kissing those lame ass brand ambassadors that don't give 2 shits about the brand
IG as in Instagram? 😂 bro just stop using that as a metric for marketing. SoMe is the cheapest way to market your product. It only takes Labour of an intern.
Yes, Nicole Kidman (you will eat the bugs girl) and George Looney (I mean Clooney the Ohio boy who's too pompous to live in the USA) were getting annoying years ago, so Omega needs to drop them for good. They don't represent even the average upper-middle class people (doctors, etc.).
Is watches in production trading above retail a good or bad thing for the watch collecting hobby? To me this situation is doing more damage than good in the long run. Flippers and opportunistic dealers “stole” all the money and left collectors frustrated and burnt out.
Watches, very good watches, were an investment during both world wars when jewelry and watches were currency. Otherwise, agreed, buy what you like. Great video.
Watches are the biggest waist of money esp if you not rich. We are fooled into chasing the material pleasures and when you trying to sell it you get 10cents to a dollar, unless it is the 3-5 brands we all know everybody knows and controls the market. I think big brands have kinda let youtube know to stop promoting these channels with grey markets after tpg and co ruining their names
Most people confuse investing with speculation. There’s always risk in both. Education is the only investment that can’t be taken or taxed away, unless you injure your brain. Always risk vs return.
I definitely got fatigued. Had quite a bit of interest 3-5 years ago, didn’t buy anything in the end with how the prices were going. I kinda ignored watches for a while, didn’t really care. I still like vintage pieces a lot, the new stuff are just too shiny and chunky. A new Rolex is so easy to produce nowadays and made in abundance. Don’t like their image either.
Anyone else ever written a tale and theme with music about their watches? We just wanted to quickly introduce ourselves: we are Harris watches from Germany. We have just started... our watches are probably unlike anything you might have ever heard of or seen before. If you share our kind of humor, that is! We are into music and are openly sarcastic. Regards.
I think this is just the start of the pain for the watch market. After the bubble burst, there were many true watch enthusiasts that were on the sidelines for years due to the crazy prices. For the last year or so, these enthusiasts have been scooping up good deals as the prices drop (maybe even a few watches more than we needed). Now our belly is getting full and that buying wave will slow further and further. The next couple years will be worse for the watch market than the last 2.
Glad people are buying what they like, with the budget we have. There’s an ocean of watches, I’m attracted to probably 50 of them ever made. 50 is still an absurd amount of watches if I ever had that many. (10+ now at 28) I’m hoping to see authentic watches go for actual market value: the most one person was willing to spend, meaning price drops because no one is buying.
I would argue that the new watch market today is doing just fine, but the landscape has shifted away from traditional timepieces. Smartwatch and cheap digital watch sales are massive, with almost everyone wearing one or the other, and they’re generally priced between $15 to $1,000, which is similar to what a good tool watch used to cost. Of course, luxury watches made from precious metals still exist and are priced like cars. The big change is that the leading brands are now tech giants like Apple and Samsung, rather than traditional watchmakers. Now the second hand market is a different matter, that's obviously dominated by Swiss watches. But I think people fixate too much on Swiss watches.
There is no problem for watch buyers who genuinely just buy what they like. It's like saying there is a problem with fast food.......... We gotta eat and find something nice to eat......So we eat something nice and do the same the next day........It's not a biggie 🙄
Humble brag about pretending that you had $50k to buy the omega. Maybe you had the cash but the reality is that you’d be watch poor eating beans for dinner. You ain’t fooling anyone.
There is a simple answer to the current watch market crash - the globe is going through a recession and people are just clinging on to make ends meet. Watches or luxury market like the rest of the non essential market is taking a hit. It is totally wrong to blame the watch brands for not pumping out new and innovative models. The market demand just isn’t there for now period
it's called hype... happens with all kinds of shit, including tulips back in Holland in the 17th century... The free market will sort it all out, and brands like Rolex will hardly be phased since they pretty much sell out every watch they make instantly at full MSRP, even in this down market.
What kind of watches are you talking about? If these are watches that you have to mortgage your home for, then I’m not interested. Over the years, I have collected watches (Orient, Seiko, Christopher Ward etc) that have remained innovative and affordable. Overthinking and obsessing over Buying & selling “luxury” watches is not my thing. If an Breitling or Omega were able to manufacture timepieces that were under the $2k price range, I might be interested, otherwise I’ll stick with my homages etc.
Watches ? As investments? Unless there is history behind the watch or your a secret agent or military servicemen overseas that expensive watches can buy help or escape flights out of the country, then watches are the best. No no,,, always buy a vintage model auto. They go up and if not, it helps to bond with kids by going to shows or contests, plus it drives the other half insane when you spend more time with cars than her! 😂😂😂😂😂 No but seriously, if not cars go for wines and less known brands. Watches are getting faked left and right, it’s a crypto coin that your wearing on the wrist. The best advice for less affluent buyers, then antiques and furniture are the next best thing.
John P, in terms of the economy and the watch industry taking a hit, "We ain't seen nothin' yet." It's going to get really bad in another few months. The Great Recession/Depression is upon us and fantastic deals will be had by those who have positioned themselves accordingly.
No Covid no Boom was all hype now it's business as usual most of the wannabes are gone few more to follow, Then it will be a buyers market and we the buyer get to screw over the dealers
oh god. tje last think we need is new models. Do you know how shit the watch industry is, you buy a watch and then they release 500 new coloways of that watch and you feel like you bought at the wrong time.
"A nother conversation for a nother time!" Yep, thats what he saya in this segment. Please, please stop f'ing up the english language. It hurts my ears and makes me feel sorry for you.
The grey market got greedy. Let it crash.
Correct!
Agree.
The grey market is the least greedy. The worst greed is at the AD’s. Swiss firms tripling their margins is greedy, not grey market dealers making 10% to 20% is not greedy. It never was.
Facts
@@sinesaii Grey market is totally greedy. You don’t think on their private chat groups there isn’t price fixing going on? There is total collusion to artificially inflate prices. Look at all the Batman’s out there..the price should be significantly lower than where it is.
I agree. There is a fatigue that has set in the watch collector world. That is reflected in the downward trend of prices. Rolex has lost its lustre more than any other brand, especially among collectors. People are turning to less expensive watches for variety and practicality, and a general skepticism now toward the standard higher end watches of the past couple of decades.
No other brand but Rolex has worked so diligently and systematically to alienate customers. Perhaps that was an unintended consequence of dealer snobbishness, but it happened anyway and now in a buyers market, they have to make up for lost sales and the bad taste in the mouths of purchasers, would-be and real.
I am a watch collector that fell out of love with Rolex myself. I traded my pieces in for other pieces. Don't give a toss about buying another Rolex. Partially blame the prevalence of replicas and lack of exclusivity wearing them. Honestly no one gives a shit about Rolex
@@SavageKillaBeeshaha BS. Nobody cares about Rolex?? If that were actually the case then you’d be able to walk into an AD and buy one. You seem envious and bitter
I would agree that Rolex has lost more brand equity than any other brand, but people are still buying grails.
I am fascinated to see what Rolex does. Their reputation has changed so much. It definitely has gone from a prestige to a douche watch. I never would have expected that.
@@sinesaii Again, the product is not at fault, it is the marketing philosophy, the 'tude. There's a name for people who enjoy hurting themselves.
There's a saying in stocks and shares investing, "If a normal person starts talking to you about shares then you're in a bubble and it's time to sell." This is exactly the same for all investments.
Could not agree more!
Good point. The average guy doesn’t realize he is being manipulated. They sell when the market appears to be crashing,and buy when stocks are high. The system is rigged.
I have to agree. My interest in watches has completely vanished. I think about the other things I could buy for half the price that provide way more enjoyment and value.
For example: A slick new firearm that you can take to the range, clean, take apart, etc.
Example ii: A mini bike or an ATV which again is half the price of a luxury watch sometime a quarter. These items provide way more fun and enjoyment than a mechanical watch.
I’m glad people like you are starting to go back to what brings them joy as that is how it should be. Like John P said, if the content about watches is all about the financial side of the watch market it’s not really about the love of horology anymore. What will be left will be true watch aficionados that get as much joy from their timepieces as others do with their guns, atv’s etc. life is getting back to normal.
Or if you are thinking of a watch to accessorize and up your appearance, you can get two or three really nice suits and a couple of shoes to go with them, for the price of a used watch. My thoughts.
@@etebol Couldn't agree more.
Correct!
Well said, I believe I’ve done my personal full cycle of watch collecting. I love watches but have realised there’s much more to life that expensive watches. I’m revisiting an old hobby when I was a teen and that was sometime ago 😂, RC Boats. Been out of the hobby for decades and electric is all in, what a change. For my 20k watch I can buy a few boats, take a great holiday abroad and have a modest watch for 3-5k and other stuff too.
Inflation is the biggest threat. Disposable incomes are contracting. Paying a mortgage, paying your kids college tuition, and have you seen the price of cars? These are more important than the latest watch.
That really depends. Not everyone needs a car. I made the mistake of buying a 2024 model, but I will not do that again.
Watches are a better item to waste money on as opposed to cars. Of course, the mortgage or universities comes first, but only rich people have children these days. Many, many people do not.
@@sinesaii I agree with you. Unfortunately it's impossible to get an affordable car anymore. Even used cars are too expensive.
Vlogger demand is not an excuse to produce more watches. There are plenty of choices, the problem is most contributors are talking about the same thing. And that's the issue here, same brand overexposure.
John P - the master of talking without saying anything of interest.
Ouch
What didn't you understand?
@@Lundpc01 Disagree. John is an intellectual guy, not just a watch collector. If you listen and pay attention to what John says, he makes tons a sense, and a very bright young man.
Even when the hype was there most brands barely did any innovating. Why would/should we care how much billion dollar companies are selling. 😂 The pre-owned market is doing just fine, especially if you didnt buy into overhyped watches.
True
Here's the diff. You can wear a watch to a gathering but you can't wear an NFT.
Right now is a good time to buy pre-owned in all markets. I went to Japan in 2023 and 2024, and I was able to get an Omega Dynamic Chrono for $1,500 in 2023. In 2024, I was able to buy a silver-dial Omega Speedmaster (no box, no papers) for $1,100 USD and an IWC Mark XVIII for under $2,500. I didn’t look hard enough, but I’m sure I could have bought a Navitimer for under $3,500. For the more affordable options, on eBay, I found many Citizen Fugu models for under $200, which is insane for such a very collectible watch. If you can buy Vintage I seen nice King Seiko models for under 500. I seen very deep discounts on Frederique Constant also very good watches. Personally I would stay away from Rolex, hyped up Omegas and look for alternatives.
A lot of enthusiasts are raking in cash, but the rest of us are hurting in this economy. I find manufacturers are less likely to take risks in times like these.
Agree. I think W&W was boring because many brands held back designs - their data already showed slowing economies around the world. I usually agree w our host but I say - except for a watch you really want new at retail - wait. Prices are going to drop a lot more.
Very well point
When you get bored with watches, the answer is to get a Panerai.
ya man…
Definitely! I have added 13 to the collection over the past few years. Some of their earlier pieces are some of the best values out there right now IMO. I've even added a few PM versions and the premium over the stainless versions was laughably small. I won't be sad if there is a softening of prices and I can add a few more!
You made me LOL. Thanks.
Nailed! I got mine 389 submersible and loving it
Never ask Panerai owners what their movements are
I used to post in Watch Crunch. But I haven’t lately for some reason. But when I walked into a motorcycle shop and saw that my Omega Aqua Terra was the same price of a decent motorcycle, my watch suddenly didn’t feel so special.
Carefull,the watch probably won't kill you. There's crazy drivers out there..
A man with taste 👍
I am loving the chilled state of the market now, I can now buy watches to satisfy me! I even said that Hodinkee was hyping watches with the Talking Watches Episodes, sure they opened my eyes and my mind to so much but we were talking money like it was nothing, vintage watches were so high price wise and now, the market seems more reasonable on so many non popular watches, relative to current retail prices. And the retail prices of now have not changed much in the last 5 years, hope I am correct? I saw a Breitling Top Time Panda for like 3k today and there are so many watches with that kind of a price tag.
I cannot prove it but I feel like the peak of Hodinkee and so on, vintage watches moved from a reasonable bargain which is why enthusiasts moved to them in first place and then moved towards something, well, quite high. Your take on this next video could be cool. I also want to add; Hodinkee's talking watches is like an industry darling amongst geeks, it is an asset, so why aren't they using it as a market penetration and development tool? Thanks for the great conversation by the way!
The watch industry needs to be more innovative and as one example should fix the issue of bracelets and straps. So many are inferior don’t have quick exchange and have limited adjustments and usually no on the fly adjustments. Look at how Apple completely figured out their strap opening up a huge third party business opportunity for straps. Contrast this with the pathetic state of affairs of the mighty Swiss and watch industry who still after so many years have a mess.
Speaking of brands dealing with issues, Omega now has a milenaese bracelet on the Bond and we are wondering if it would be so when the public version is releases, now that in my opinion will be clever cost cutting. I have seen a few mad comments on that, it may bite them in the A
There are hundreds…thousands…of interesting watches out there worthy of comment. 50s, 60s, 70s, 80s. Confusing the industry with what’s interesting is what can make things seem stale I think.
True but unfortunately the brands don’t advertise for their out of production watches. Hard for companies to continue a watch blog without advertisers.
Name 8 watches.
I resemble the COVID enthusiast, falling into the hobby during lockdown and after digging out an old Victorinox I hadn’t worn in years. 4 years and 24+ watches later, I’m slowing my purchase pace and am following a 1 in 1 out policy.
I went from one watch to seven in six months. All between 600$&1000$ so far. They're not Omega but they look great & keep good time. Tag & Bristling next..
If I were looking to buy a luxury brand right now,( and I am) Given all the signs that the economy is due for a major correction, I’d hang on to my money and wait for the panic selling and or major slashing of new prices. I have a feeling the waiting list at a lot of dealers are going to disappear.
You spent 8 minutes warming up then got to the pt - it’s the major economies around the world tanking. And fears that if the U.S. vote goes wrong in Nov it will get much, much worse.
I say other than getting watches new at retail, keep your powder dry - prices have much further to drop.
Social media basically meant the majority want to buy and wear the same watches at any price point. It’s not like 10 years ago where people went to an AD tried something on and left with what they liked not worrying about specs, recommendations, resale.
Ten years ago lot’s of people bought watches online
The wind is f’n howlin in the background
I'm lefthanded, and I just want the goddamn lefty Rolex GMT at retail, but all these pricks keep buying it to stow for "investment" rather than wear it.
"It puts the horology in the basket" ..
Or else it gets the hose again? LoL you made me laugh. Thanks 😊
@@nedflanders3769 Your welcome bud..
🤣🤣🤣 Very funny. And very few will get it ;)
PUT THE LOTION IN THE F'ING BASKET!!!!!
I came back to watches late. Like last year. I'm kinda glad I missed the covid surge.
i only clicked because the thumbnail looks like you're crying
Let breitling fail. They are cheap feeling overpriced watches. They shouldn’t be more than 1k
Very original and corect
Agree 💯
Many new “collectors” were more interested in trading the watches than keeping the watches. It’s like those guys that never kicked a ball in their life but love English premier league football (soccer) for the betting or the excuse to head to the pub with their mates.
Collecting is about the watches and about the community. Brands and Authorized dealers have failed to foster communities. They are coke and driven by immediate profits and sometimes by pure greed. Authorized dealers play games by forcing bundling deals. Brands know they they do it but either don’t care or are afraid of the ADs.
So yeah, this is no big surprise.
Brands and ADs need to eat humble pie and try to foster communities now.
They need to beg forgiveness from customers the dicked around.
And they need to start innovating and stop mass producing.
New wishes from Singapore 🇸🇬
Superb video John, I fully concur with your analysis that the watch industry is stagnating.
Do you think we will see a quantum leap in movement technology for mass production (like the Spring Drive) anytime in the near future?
Omega's spirate movement is the closest to what can be qualified as a breakthrough. Shame it didn't get the attention it deserved. Might be related to early production issues though.
@@poney3839check out Horage and their amazing setting system. Like spirate but you can regulate the watch yourself in 0.1 second per day increments.
I collect a specific type of watch and primarily a specific make and model and I’m collecting more than ever right now. It’s been grail after grail over here. Collectors are still going to collect. Speaking of the Aqua Terra Ultralight you mentioned, I saw one earlier this year at an Omega Boutique. The materials are very interesting and it was indeed crazy light. But it’s outside my wheelhouse. The technology and material science involved won’t interest people in it for the investment angle. But it was a very cool watch. And it was available.
5 digits Rolex are really interesting pieces
Yep, just had my blue-dialed Yachmaster arrive at the AD a month ago and couldn't be happier.
About time. You might get the chance to get an interesting watch at a reasonable price now . Prices are too high imo
The RUclips algorithms didn’t help…say Rolex, get more views, feed the hype, the whole thing fed upon itself. Interesting videos on other brands didn’t get the views, plus plenty of people jumped on the bandwagon. The best alternatives to these hype watches….its got to the stage you can guess the alternatives pre watching.
Brands like omega who did price increases over 4 times (plus squeezed dealer margins) overstepped during the good times and it’ll come back to bite them during this correction.
is green still the flavor of the week?
I still only wear green watches
People do not want to go on a watch journey. Most of us just want the one watch and not to be forced into getting a number of lesser watches to get the one wanted watch.
It’s fine. They are just watches.
Preowned prices are definitely crazy low right now, the craziest I've seen them since the early 10s. I've taken an absolute bath on my Grand Seiko GMT compared to what I paid preowned 3 years ago. GS in general seems to be getting slashed to pieces in the secondhand market -- I wouldn't be surprised if they make a 180 in their retail strategy and start making everything waitlist only in the next few years.
@John I do not agree with you when you say media outlets have nothing to talk about; This hobby is not all about new watches, besides, I am disappointed yearly with most releases, therefore, we need other topics; How about topics like What is a chain and fusee, understanding the G.S Evolution 9 Automatic calibre, how the spring drive really works, a deep dive into Debethune etc etc There is so much content I could make up and would love to but I am not sure about my future as a horology journalist, i would love to get into it but input vs reward is the issue
That information exists online. Zenith made a chain and fussed watch years ago, and I recall looking up the mechanism and how it worked. It is not too complex, but definitely requires more skill than a free sprung balance.
The push to accumulate is diminishing. A daily rotation for the gram is a lot less appealing as the economy continues to flatline and prices keep going up.
Good point
You SOLD YOUR SHARES!! Get outta here, I never knew that 😂😂😂
Another Seamaster reference to the already over saturated catalog. If I go with Omega it will be something from the 60s and 70's. Modern Omega doesn't do a thing for me and Omega's marketing is embarrassing. They come off as more of a fashion brand now. Omega is to busy ass kissing those lame ass brand ambassadors that don't give 2 shits about the brand
IG as in Instagram? 😂 bro just stop using that as a metric for marketing.
SoMe is the cheapest way to market your product. It only takes Labour of an intern.
Yes, Nicole Kidman (you will eat the bugs girl) and George Looney (I mean Clooney the Ohio boy who's too pompous to live in the USA) were getting annoying years ago, so Omega needs to drop them for good. They don't represent even the average upper-middle class people (doctors, etc.).
Old railmasters are nice....
Omega...a ''''fashion'''' brand??? You're a funny fella 🤣🤣🤣
I picked up a pristine Omega SM 50th Anniversary GMT for $1,800. Man, I love it! I can't see paying $7k+ for a watch at this point.
Is watches in production trading above retail a good or bad thing for the watch collecting hobby? To me this situation is doing more damage than good in the long run. Flippers and opportunistic dealers “stole” all the money and left collectors frustrated and burnt out.
Watches, very good watches, were an investment during both world wars when jewelry and watches were currency. Otherwise, agreed, buy what you like. Great video.
Why wouldn’t watch brands reduce their prices and close the gap with the secondary market?
Because many of them are “luxury brands” who don’t want to give off the idea that they’re selling inferior goods.
Thanks 4 the vid!
Watches are the biggest waist of money esp if you not rich. We are fooled into chasing the material pleasures and when you trying to sell it you get 10cents to a dollar, unless it is the 3-5 brands we all know everybody knows and controls the market. I think big brands have kinda let youtube know to stop promoting these channels with grey markets after tpg and co ruining their names
Buy preloved. You won't waste too much money
Most people confuse investing with speculation. There’s always risk in both. Education is the only investment that can’t be taken or taxed away, unless you injure your brain. Always risk vs return.
I definitely got fatigued. Had quite a bit of interest 3-5 years ago, didn’t buy anything in the end with how the prices were going. I kinda ignored watches for a while, didn’t really care. I still like vintage pieces a lot, the new stuff are just too shiny and chunky. A new Rolex is so easy to produce nowadays and made in abundance. Don’t like their image either.
Anyone else ever written a tale and theme with music about their watches? We just wanted to quickly introduce ourselves: we are Harris watches from Germany. We have just started... our watches are probably unlike anything you might have ever heard of or seen before. If you share our kind of humor, that is! We are into music and are openly sarcastic. Regards.
I think this is just the start of the pain for the watch market. After the bubble burst, there were many true watch enthusiasts that were on the sidelines for years due to the crazy prices. For the last year or so, these enthusiasts have been scooping up good deals as the prices drop (maybe even a few watches more than we needed). Now our belly is getting full and that buying wave will slow further and further. The next couple years will be worse for the watch market than the last 2.
When a market swings hard one way, it comes back equally hard the other way. Those with cash, are going to make out in the upcoming market.
Glad people are buying what they like, with the budget we have. There’s an ocean of watches, I’m attracted to probably 50 of them ever made. 50 is still an absurd amount of watches if I ever had that many. (10+ now at 28)
I’m hoping to see authentic watches go for actual market value: the most one person was willing to spend, meaning price drops because no one is buying.
I would argue that the new watch market today is doing just fine, but the landscape has shifted away from traditional timepieces.
Smartwatch and cheap digital watch sales are massive, with almost everyone wearing one or the other, and they’re generally priced between $15 to $1,000, which is similar to what a good tool watch used to cost. Of course, luxury watches made from precious metals still exist and are priced like cars.
The big change is that the leading brands are now tech giants like Apple and Samsung, rather than traditional watchmakers.
Now the second hand market is a different matter, that's obviously dominated by Swiss watches. But I think people fixate too much on Swiss watches.
They're kind of like the Hemi in the car collection World.
Omega should do more with the speedmaster pro. That should shake things up some more. 😂
Don't forget to talk about covid cheques
Thanks ✌️
Nowadays people have less money to spend due to uncertain grave global economic situation as well as wars etc...........
It’s called recession 🎉🎉🎉
There is no problem for watch buyers who genuinely just buy what they like.
It's like saying there is a problem with fast food.......... We gotta eat and find something nice to eat......So we eat something nice and do the same the next day........It's not a biggie 🙄
Rolex ruined the industry. Prices came down.
They are still the best and other brands that increased prices are going to sit there.
My watch collection grew rediculously mainly thanks to Japan and low yen.
Humble brag about pretending that you had $50k to buy the omega. Maybe you had the cash but the reality is that you’d be watch poor eating beans for dinner. You ain’t fooling anyone.
JP looks like a rugged thug in that Thumbnail!! He's in his badboy era.
Alternative investments...ahahahahahaha...
Chinese made watches have gotten so good. A good Citizen or Tissot, or even a Casio/Edifice is hard to beat in comparison to Rolex and above.
I only need 3 or 4 average priced watches.
I give zero about the Olympics
It’s not “near” this is it man.
There is a simple answer to the current watch market crash - the globe is going through a recession and people are just clinging on to make ends meet. Watches or luxury market like the rest of the non essential market is taking a hit. It is totally wrong to blame the watch brands for not pumping out new and innovative models. The market demand just isn’t there for now period
it's called hype... happens with all kinds of shit, including tulips back in Holland in the 17th century... The free market will sort it all out, and brands like Rolex will hardly be phased since they pretty much sell out every watch they make instantly at full MSRP, even in this down market.
This man said “ Grand Seiko “
💩
You’re always cranky bro
What kind of watches are you talking about? If these are watches that you have to mortgage your home for, then I’m not interested. Over the years, I have collected watches (Orient, Seiko, Christopher Ward etc) that have remained innovative and affordable. Overthinking and obsessing over Buying & selling “luxury” watches is not my thing. If an Breitling or Omega were able to manufacture timepieces that were under the $2k price range, I might be interested, otherwise I’ll stick with my homages etc.
Lucky u got out of the watch business.
There will always be people with more money than common sense, so that’s good news for any luxury company 🤷♂️
Watches ? As investments? Unless there is history behind the watch or your a secret agent or military servicemen overseas that expensive watches can buy help or escape flights out of the country, then watches are the best.
No no,,, always buy a vintage model auto.
They go up and if not, it helps to bond with kids by going to shows or contests, plus it drives the other half insane when you spend more time with cars than her! 😂😂😂😂😂
No but seriously, if not cars go for wines and less known brands.
Watches are getting faked left and right, it’s a crypto coin that your wearing on the wrist.
The best advice for less affluent buyers, then antiques and furniture are the next best thing.
John P, in terms of the economy and the watch industry taking a hit, "We ain't seen nothin' yet." It's going to get really bad in another few months. The Great Recession/Depression is upon us and fantastic deals will be had by those who have positioned themselves accordingly.
What went up, must come down.
Meanwhile, Rolex is still out of stock
Plenty of stock online on the grey market... unworn GMT Pepsi's etc. Stock seems to migrate online at a premium.
The watch market is alive according to LB 😅
Prices are stabilizing…. The resurgence is right around the corner…
Maybe I have tiktok brainrot but please talk faster bro
New models coming from vacheron Constantins 270th anniversary next year.
Please dear God will you Americans stop mentioning Covid!
It will surpass Elvis at this rate!!!
No Covid no Boom was all hype now it's business as usual most of the wannabes are gone few more to follow, Then it will be a buyers market and we the buyer get to screw over the dealers
Watch market is dead
oh god. tje last think we need is new models. Do you know how shit the watch industry is, you buy a watch and then they release 500 new coloways of that watch and you feel like you bought at the wrong time.
Archie will be number 1 again.
People got tiered of big brand bullshit .... and now bum....
"A nother conversation for a nother time!" Yep, thats what he saya in this segment. Please, please stop f'ing up the english language. It hurts my ears and makes me feel sorry for you.
nothing more disgusting than the apple watch
Only idiots buy Rolex. 😂
Hi John P. nice watch talk.