Billionaires Debate Tesla's “NUCLEAR” Growth Potential (Robotaxis & Optimus)
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- Опубликовано: 14 май 2024
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0:00 Billionaires Debate Tesla’s INSANE Growth Potential-Optimus & Autonomy Will Be HUGE. All In Podcast.
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In this video, billionaire besties from the All In Podcast discuss and debate the INSNAE potential of Tesla autonomy (Robotaxis), the disruption of Uber, the NUCLEAR potential of Tesla’s humanoid robot Optimus AND Tesla Energy.
Tags: #Tesla #FSD #Optimus #Elon #FSD #ElonMusk #Cybertruck #Tesla #FSD #TSLA #TeslaStock #TSLA #TeslaBot #Optimus #Engineering
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As always, in this video I'm just sharing my thinking process and my reasoning. Keep using your own brain. Don't be a sheep. 🐑
I love you all,
Steven
p.s. Share your thoughts below. I love to read the comments!
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Jason: coping. Chamath: high. David 1 & 2: On point.
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Beyond your imagination , battery energy density x Ai compute x autonomy
You don't even have to use a phone to get a ride hail, just make a sign with your hand and ANY passing Tesla vehicle could send the signal with your location for pick up. Could look like a Taxi hail sign or a whistle? lol
Once the consumers who delayed will have their jobs automated away and all their income taken from them through renting and other ways of never owning anything... honestly unfortunately the best system I can think of is a Ubi based off the total automated production percentage of the GDP and calculate how much tools have helped us increase our ability to produce the amount of goods we make and quality of those goods and see how many humans it would take to replicate the GDP that we have without the tools that we use and bass the total Ubi received off of that automated production percentage that gets rid of humans needed for production... this would be a rock solid measurement and it's based off the total automated production percentage of the GDP so that way as we automate away more jobs we will get more money to spend in the economy to protect the companies and protect the consumer Market from inevitable collapse! I really wish you would make a video about this just straight up take it from me dude just do it it is the best idea and you can research the whole platform and make an entire video to get to Elan who could make a difference and pushing for this as well... this is the best most logical form of Ubi and it is inevitable we can also make it so in order to be eligible for Ubi benefits you must be born in America and one of your parents must be a citizen as well... this creates a money wall and protects the citizens from illegals coming across the border.
@@anthonylosegoextremely good idea! Wouldn't even need a phone technically... You can just have facial recognition.
Elon if you are reading check out the comment from @anthonylosego above!!!
It's nice to see debates on which S curve is going to kick butt the hardest. So many S curves in one stock.
Total systemic disruption.
(imo)
X curves! ❤
Tesla's mission statement is typically ignored. Analysts focused on short term accounting rather than the engineering vision for the long term. Elon is unique as a CEO.
Riding the AWMKPX train feels so good, they really know how to make promises count and bring them to reality
How long is this available?
It's my clear favorite
Amazon has the budget, idea and tech to make something better than most projects
Excited to be part of this xDD
I want it! This is so lovely! Huge moves expected!! Yay!
Just leaving this here.. My heart goes to the entire community for AWMKPX building up something which is worth it for everyone. This is so smart by them to launch and shatter the doubts and fears of the common folk, which was misplaced by all the drama we had last years. Everyone knows the state of inflation and recession now and the way out is already in progress. Now its just about catching the big fish, ya feelin?
What is it?
Can I buy this without a Amazon acc?
Really great for Amazon, stock and coin
Amazon really made it possible to bring even casuals easily into it
This is how it SHOULD be done, mark my comment if you are procrastinating on this you'll be mad tomorrow
Thanks for the update, what are your thoughts on AWMKPX?
scam dont listen to anything about awmkpx
Great video. I am ballsdeep for AWMKPX and love your review for that as well
scam dont listen to anything about awmkpx
Interesting how Chamath looks at the energy business as a short on utilities more than it is a long on the micro grids
You know what interests me about Chamath? How he comes across as a man of the people. Like the "you can trust me, I'm just a regular guy." And he played everyone. Sold out of the SPACS before anyone at the top. He's a chump.
@@Christian-fx9urtrue
In my country (The Netherlands) legislation already changed. We now have to pay for giving our excess energy to the grid, because there is an overload of energy on a sunny day.
You can also now buy a system to turn off solar panels when you need to pay for giving to the grid.
We really need home battery quick.
Your one blind spot might be on interest rates. The ratea are at normal rates now. Low rates where the exception.
Six percent on a regular savings account was normal for most of my life.
Not for the last 20 years, it's not.
Legacy debt rates, anyone?
Not in this inflated market
@@stuffbenlikes the last twenty years were an outlier. And it's why we've added roughly $25T in government debt. Cheap money allowed the Congress critters to spend like drunken sailors. Now we're paying the price with debt service quickly approaching $1T a year.
$200 by end of this week…BOOK IT💎🤲
Buddy it’s gonna hit $200 at this rate by tomorrow! 😅
Who cares about up and down 10%
@@mruler360 facts 😂
Jason will have to lobby Elon to show leniancy to Uber given he has a chunky package tied up in there! Vote YES shareholders to approve the pay package and keeping the existing Board Members.
Uber is “on Board” with Tesla.
Wait.... Chamath didn't know what Waymo is?
Probably only notices what's relevant.
Trucking will be a subset of autonomy. FSD trucking could compete with trains.
I wish Tesla had a travel mode for families with two Tesla so on a trip the second call is linked to the lead car so you can stay closer so cars can't get in front of you.
In my opinion Optimus is catching FSD and will pass it on the earnings report in 2026.
No way. There are 0 optimus Roaming around on earth right now. There are 6 million teslas driving around ready to be monetized
My hunch is sometime after 2030 Optimus may begin to truly shine, meanwhile FSD may become the golden goose for the end of this decade, thanks to recent developments - Tesla cracking the compute constraint barrier, FSD going full neural nets now, etc.
Just an edumacated guess.
109% ingenious prediction
Chamath is picking what he will see as the biggest opportunity while he is alive . Energy will become the currency of the future as primary and second compute , but you can’t run compute for AI unless you have energy. Optimus is a huge opportunity and the biggest one but perhaps for our children to see it fully play out .
Does the word ""exponential" mean anything to you?
Optimus, is number one within a decade. It’s not complicated to build in a high production plant and the AI capability is doubling every 6 to 10 months. By 2030 there will be large high production plants in many locations around the planet.
1. Net metering is a credit to your electric bill and you still have to pay the Basic Service Fee commonly referred to as Infrastruture Fee (Power plants, transmission lines, substations, meters, etc.).
2. Virtual Power Plant or VPP is cash sent to you when you sell/export your excess energy during an energy alert back to your electric company. Currently, available in the NE USA, PR, TX and CA.
3. Waymo cost more to take than Uber and Lyft. To equip each Waymo car costs around $75K. Waymo uses cameras, sonic sensors and Lidar.
Some of that can change. At some point some old players may become redundant, right now not many people are truly off-grid for example.
Some Australian consumers are kinda experimenting with some of this a few years ahead of the US iirc.
@@AllanSustainabilityFan I've been off the grid in the USA with Tesla Energy for two years. Hence, why I know about net metering and VPP.
I was wondering why Jason felt that way but didn t know he holds Uber stock!!! Makes sense now. Cheers
Yeah hopefully he's able to divest soon.
I see many benefits in Optimus that I have not heard of. Besides the fact that you will have working robot, you will also have an highly advanced AI with all of human knowledge, memory etc. You will basically have a GPT-5 or so walking with you. Surely they will also do something regarding privacy of data.
You already have that in your pocket with your phone. Access to all of the world's knowledge.
@@darylfoster7944 Yeah, I don't mean google LOL
Jason should check out Mars Catalogue. The Tesla drove downtown through the San Francisco city centre got onto and drove the freeway any speed and took them to the airport via some fast food stop. Unbelievably good. Jason is not trying to find out.
I know another CEO with a “PLÈN‼️” 😉🤣🤣
Is her middle name BS?
Steven, you are the top content provider on one of the most consequential companies for all humanity - TESLA.
Thank you, friend 42:37 for your hard work.
Elon/TESLA is laying the foundation for the future. Make no mistake AI and inference is the true innovation and catalyst for global adoption at a scale and rate humanity has never witnessed before. We are lucky to have a front row seat to this transformation! ❤
Love it when my favorite shows reference each other
HERE WE GO BOYS!!!
Robotaxi will generate insane revenue in the short term to medium term. The revenue pile will transition to mainly licensing in the long term while the regular fleet will cut prices to a tiny margin… most likely. One insane advantage of Tesla’s software is that it is ready to be turned on literally overnight on 6 000 000 vehicles… So these “It will take 5-10 years” comments are hilarious. Try 1-2 years at most
The Optimus product will absolutely transform this planet. It will sell for so many reasons. Productivity being only one of them. This one is 4-6 years away.
Solar and storage is awesome but also most cumbersome. As was explained in the Elon Musk book by Walter Isaacson, even with thousands of dollars and people being thrown around the roof issue, the progress is slow due to so many variables outside of Tesla’s control. This one will be huge but in 8-10 years and the commercial side of the market will lead.
Then there’s Insurance, Semi and Supercharging… hmmmm… all in one stock.
🎉Great discussion, thanks for your reaction
FSD “edge cases.” (31:23) Autonomy will work sooner in small towns than in cities. FSD has fewer challenges in Omaha, or Ames, Iowa…
They’re over 30 states in the United States of America that already have allowances for autonomous vehicles. It doesn’t have to be a slow roll out.
While your comments are more predictable that those of your subjects I still appreciate them. Almost every video of yours i watch provides at least one new nugget of wisdom to stick in my poke. Keep it up!
Legislative question ?
If your remote driver in a different country does the law require you to hold a driver's license within the state or country that you are driving Within ?
09:46. I’m like all my friends. We all wants teslas but price, economy, and interest rates are preventing us.
Well, they just announced "cheaper (interim) models, prior to the GEN3 Full unboxed vehicles"
(imo, Model 3(Y?.... Juniper?) With unboxed *systems* (wiring, steering, brakes, etc)
Thank you sir
The grid problems and the rising costs are NOT entirely due to production but for a big part to DISTRIBUTION (ppl usually forget that crucial part) the more sources you have the more lines you have to build and the more transformers tu put to avoid over or under voltage ….
So the electricity problem is not a trivial one to resolve…
Not a problem when you bypass the grid with rooftop solar plus home and community battery storage.
@@gregbailey45 in a very very very sunny country ! 😆 and what about the malls the plants, ....
Had the same reaction when listening to the all in podcast myself. Don’t rely on one source for information. I like this podcast because it has 4 with different views.
Chamath: high. Totally nailed that one dude. This was good, thanks.
10:44 BDY? Tell me more brother.....
They bring so much value into this world with their podcast
Great video
I could imagine monopoly legislation driving a service provider model for Robotaxi market with multiple low margin Uber Lyfts Grab Maxim etc being inserted into the value chain. I think thats Ubers etc best chance of survival.
Jason clearly said he remains long on Uber before moderating the discussion back to the question he asked.
Amazing that you have 100% success rate in predicting what someone is about to say in the video that you (declared) are watching for the first time. I mean, I am not the sharpest tool in the shed and understanding statistical probabilities is way over my head but yes, AMAZING. And yes, I am demonstrating my SMR style of sarcasm.
The fear in Jason's eyes at 37:09...
Chamath made me think. Humanoid robots are perfect for production system designed for humans, Humans were the only intelligent operators available. That will change. Therefore we will probably get a number of more physically versatile general purpose robots to be the eventual successors of the human laborer.
Exactly. Mining has been limited by humans’ limitations…
When will Robo crew be able to build a house? Dig footing, set rebar, smooth concrete. Read plans and make framing. Run electrical. Run Plumbing. Drywall and mud. Is this 1, 5 or 20 years away?
Within 5 I reckon…it’s not rocket science, easily copied skills….
These are probably some of the hardest environments for robots to operate in IMO. Not easily replicated at all. Some time in the next 5 -15 years in the current non structured worksites. If a subdivision was designed from the start with robot workers in mind they could definitely set them up for success with repeatable processes and standardized materials.
Dude seriously awesome video but where are the words on AWMKPX? That is the biggest in its own kind, not?
Stevens thesis is true in my case. My next car will be a Tesla, but i cant afford one now so im going to keep my two ice cars a while longer
This is a hugely significant question. Stephen mark Ryan.
Do you believe interest rates will returned to previous levels?
Or some reasonable level? I would sincerely like to hear your opinion on this.👍
I think Chamath was doing this for the audience to talk about more parts of Teslas business. He understands tesla better than all of them
I agree 💯
TSLA does not need remote safety drivers. TSLA supervised keeps the responsibility where it belongs at the driver seat until REL FSD.
Good job
10:45 .... well, if they even don't know name of competitors... ??? BDY ?
With AWMKPX around the question is how much to obtain? This is one of those where ppl regret if they did not run with the lowest entry ever
My buddy has a big short order out today lol
I was sure last year would end terrible for me but I think AWMKPX is spot on with what they do and how they do it. Cant say for how long its going to work and for sure it is overyhped right now but even if just half a year or something it would be smart to ride the wave and then jump away eventually, but the reason why this is smart right now is because its so cheap, wont ever find a better entry than now
Fascinating
Energy, Trucking the Optimus!
Can anyone explain AWMKPX? I am curious and wanna know
How can Chamath know nothing about waymo and know anything about FSD?
FSD dysruption Waymo - which is a loser already…
As Monday market day is getting near a close, I am sitting here with tears in my eyes think about all of the Tesla short sellers. All Tesla independent investors are surely concerned about the millions of dollar the short sellers lost... it could not have happened to a more deserving group.
I listened to this and one of the geniuses is long Uber 😂
I think that Chamath Just went off on a tangent for one used case. And it’s a hell of a use case! Imagine what that will do to drive the prices down for health insurance! Healthcare! This could be the reason why we will in the future be able to have abundant and free healthcare or nearly free healthcare.
re- Optomis. how many would have to be produced to meet industrial demand. Can retail bid against return on investment factor.
re-F.S.D. could go the way of airbags. Robot Taxi cost maybe .20¢ a mile with none of the headaches that.70¢ a mile ownership unless it can be put on car sharing platform.
Australia's grid goes down ? Fake news mate. The resiliance of the Australian grid keeps getting better as more coal is retired because it is coal plants that break down. The issues in the grid are - getting better at soaking up solar and improving the transmission network. This work is underway, maybe not fast enough for some, but it is happening. Plus the focus has shifted from frequency control batteries like the big Tesla batteries to long duration storage technologies such as flow batteries. QLD has a huge battery program just starting up now.
As coal retires, does it collect a pension?
How's everyone talking about AWMKPX and what is it exactly?
Look - up until 1 or 2 weeks ago I'd have said Optimus 1, Robotaxi 2... And I STILL think, humanoid robots have the largest TAM, but I DON'T think Robotaxi has any SERIOUS competitors - - whereas I do see some serious humanoid bot competitors - yes - I know what Tesla's advantages are, and I still think they can win H-bots, but I'm sure they will be sharing that TAM with many other players - not so with Cybercab. 😊
Waymo does NOT monitor these cars I have almost been lane changed into by one of these cars multiple times. I live in PHX, Az.
Jason always lets his self-interest cloud his judgement to be honest.
The AWMKPX ecosystem has the advantage because they have so much experience, it's like the perfect one to make their move
I would have 2 different answers for this S curve question. One for 10 years out the other for infinity. 10 years out I see it as FSD/robo-taxi, cars, energy, Optimus. Infinity years I see Optimus, energy, FSD/robo, cars. There is an argument to be made that Optimus will have initial resistance to displacement of specific purpose robots since they are established, understood and cost competitive. Likewise, energy will be a slow ramp due to the capital investment required whether you are a consumer or a power company. Cars have a more fixed market that's why over time they will recede into the background as energy and labor become the world's focus points.
Thank you for the video ! Do you believe that AWMKPX will be the main pump in 2024? I mean they prepared it for a long time and the vision is beyond greatness
Lol he said BDY
Word spreads really fast with AWMKPX doesnt it?
Chamath doesn't want to be controversial 🤣🤣
SMR modeling out past the singularity. At that point our concept of money might not even be the same, never mind predicting Teslas value.
Well since most people's understanding of what money is is incorrect, that is probably a good thing. Maybe people will just be given a number based on other numbers, that determines how much work/energy they can direct toward chosen objects/goals. Kinda like how it is now.
@SkyRiver1 What makes you think there will be jobs past the singularity? Or the need to have lots of money with everything being cheap to manufacture?
How is AWMKPX better than anything else right now?
I went full Uber in December 2016. Living in Philadelphia, I relied on walking, the bus and train. Uber was late nights, bad weather etc. I will only own a car if I'm in an area where I have to have one.
Robotaxi makes sense for urban dwellers who have trouble finding parking, or have to pay a high price for parking, plus a high price for insurance, plus lack of ability to charge at home. I think it will be less popular in the suburbs.
@@darylfoster7944 All good points and yes, urban dwellers will be the first. Given the lower cost per mile for robotaxis, the cost advantages will work in suburban areas as well. Not one for one, but for second and third cars.
Surprised how little Chamath knows about this field, how can he add commentary without knowing a damn thing about Tesla or driverless cars
You could make a whole video on the "dumb schitt" various online "news" sources say about Tesla.
Ride sharing will be huge in developing areas where vehicle ownership is rare but desirable. Even Western Europe has a degree of vehicle envy compared to North America.
AND HERE WE GO!!! 👊👊😁
Optimus will be a bigger bomb than the cybertruck.
And just what constitutes a "bomb" ? . . . The fact that all cybertrucks are sold? The fact that they have hundreds of thousands of buyers in line waiting? The fact that it is the fastest selling PU truck in history? The fact that they have now produced a thousand a week? Maybe the fact that an expert like Sandy Monroe bought one for his business and one for himself and says it is a quantum leap in engineering and comfort? The fact that celebs can't wait to get press with them in their CT. Oh wait, I think I got it: you listen to bull shit from haters and think it's the facts. You are a very small brained being.
“bomb” in a good way?
@@FrunkensteinVonZipperneck As in "the bomb" I believe you want to say.
Cyber truck just got it's off road software this week. If by bomb you mean massive success then I agree 💯. Tesla is selling as many as they can build for 100k-120k $ $$ 😂 if you think that's a failure I'd hate to be one of your kids.
@@linemanap That's what happens when you can't tell hate from facts, you make asinine comments about CT being a failure.
Not looking bad premarket right now. Is 4 years of patience about to pay off!?
Everyone talking about AWMKPX is the most exciting thing for this year
The weight doesn't work anymore
But the sexy buttons work to make the nag go away
when teslas robotaxis have become a significant portion of the fleet, i think the play is to short uber ? could be a good move. just dont know when it will happen!
Cham is thinking practical. Create a robot that can be useful immediately. Build on its success to eventually have a universal robot. Can the current Optimus sort, pick up, carry, walk in a typical warehouse? Boom! Put it into use. Keep developing. Tesla already does this with FSD.
Yeah, but when will I my Oculus Robot be plugging-in my Cybertruck for me after I park in the garage?😊
Vote Yes shareholders today. This will make a difference.
To lend weight to Chamath's 'specialised bot' hypothesis - it will depend on the use case... For instance; city & suburban house yards will probably rely on humanoid bot to take care of lawn mowing & garden care - - whereas urban & country residents would do better to lay there lawncare capital to specifically lawncare bots - the latest are VERY smart already. That's not a to say these people won't have H-bots - just saying they won't be wasting their time pushing lawnmowers. Same for argument goes for Roomba vacs...
Why I agree with Chamath: "AI animals" and "the best part/process is no part/process". Elon said that Tesla's "product" is the factories because what they are actually selling is "better" and "cheaper". Their first car was the fastest and best to be sold to the rich then they make the cheaper cars with experience. Optimus is the Roadster of robots.
Think of grid-connected battery energy storage as AI robots but without any moving parts. Cybercabs will be another specialized robot. Making colonies on the Moon and Mars will be done with cybertrucks and boring machines and Tesla's heat pump technology in hundreds of forms.
Also: the robots are supposed to replace jobs that are "boring, repetitive, or dangerous". Security is one of the most boring, repetitive, AND dangerous jobs. Security can be done with AI and cameras and it would be nice if that security continues to work without grid and internet. This is not mentioned separate from "Sentry Mode" in Teslas... Might be added to their home battery systems.
Love Chamath….hes worth listening to !
Chamath like Elon can see the future more clearly than most..
Here is analogy: This dude is Hammer Tech in an Iron Man movie
Chamath is just talking his own book.
I usually lurk and never write but why wouldnt you be excited over AWMKPX ?
Haha Jason¨s eys are saying it all
Chamath is thinking not of Tesla's Optimus but of Waymo's Optimus Subprime.
I use FSD for uber/lyft/HUM rideshare rides everyday in a Waymo market. The drive experience point-to-point is better as reported by my riders. Pickup and dropoff requires intervention most of the time because that is the hard part of the problem, mostly because the map programs will often send you to dead ends (exit only gates) for apartment complexes. Oh, and people are often not where they say they will be, or want to be picked up in an unsafe area.
Uber/Lyft are such a crap companies because of how they look down on, and take advantage of drivers and riders.
SMR, I watch this ALL IN Pod TWICE . Then I watched your episode . You DO add value - thanks . Shamath was off centre - he will catch up. . Jason will quietly exit Uber . I have a Q for you to ponder - WHY in early April did Elon give himself 16weeks for the “reveal” ?
Sure: gotta accelerate the prototype BUT what else do we not know about the next 12 weeks : FSD probs , Q2 results - sure : BUT THERE IS SOMETHING ELSE ?? Ponder?
Delaware court…
DaVinci is the surgical robot : ) It's amazing from what I know.
Brilliant