Karpathy on Elon & Tesla / FSD Rollout Moving Fast / Mexico Needs Help ⚡️
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- Опубликовано: 13 май 2024
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Karpathy video: • Making AI accessible w...
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00:00 - Schedule
00:11 - S & X
00:33 - FSD Moving Fast
3:31 - Tesla Career
4:25 - Munro & Cybertruck
6:57 - Tesla Debut
7:09 - Mexico Needs Help
9:19 - TSLA Stock Note
10:23 - Baglino on Engineering
11:27 - China Going E2E
11:56 - Lol
12:12 - Karpathy on Elon
16:06 - Heavy Hitters on TSLA
17:17 - Zeng on Solid State
18:24 - Rimac and BESS
19:44 - BESS in EU
20:36 - EU Incentives
20:59 - Fisker Ocean
21:22 - Volvo Ends It
21:40 - Greenlane JV
22:25 - Oh Boy
22:58 - Yellen
23:27 - Polestar 4
24:02 - Hyundai $51B
24:37 - Whisper
25:17 - TSLA Stock Today
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*Disclaimer: I was a financial advisor with Edward Jones for a number of years. That said, I am not your financial advisor so please always do your own research and do not base your investment decisions on my videos alone.
#TeslaFSD #TeslaNews #TSLAStockToday 
Авто/Мото
EDIT: at 2:44 a clip of FSD from Edge Case accidentally got edited out...apologies!
There's a difference between "average 30-day volume" and 30-day average (daily) volume, isn't there? My ear is finely tuned to language distinctions and find ambiguity disturbing. I'm a big fan! 😊
As an engineer people don't know how powerful Karpathy's statements. I have worked at so many places where the CEO had no concept of what the engineers actually (highest paid employees beside upper management) did and blocked efforts instead clearing the way to let us do what we do.
Fab to hear Andrej Karpathy talk. Really articulate.
Agreed. And Musk would too. Andre is a communicator.
12:15 Karpathy says he doesn't know how to explain Elon's business acumen and process, then proceeds to go in EXQUISITE detail Elon's business acumen and process for 10 minutes.
"okay I'll call Jensen" 😱😂 Elon is still epic
Finger on the Button?
.
(Think it through)
Great show I received my 12.3 version last week and it is impressive. Over the 11.49 version I will add that i paid in 2020 and its smart to roll it out to the early adopters. The AT&T connectivity was not working last week and i just went over to service center to ask what was happening and the tech said they are working on it. AT&T is known for throttling and i bet they were not prepared for the increased data transmission. I hope Elon announces new premium service will be by Starlink in the near future.! Happy Easter 🐇
FSD 12 is rolling out to Canada now. A colleague had it this morning and loves it.
Really enjoyed the Karpathy interview ❤
I love how you cover all the electric news and not just tesla, thank you!
Happy Easter, Dillon and Ashley 🙏👍
thank you! same to you rajen 🫶🏻
Thanks for another great video Dillon! Happy Easter!
My understanding was that Tesla as stock pilling 4680 for CT ramp. They stopped selling model Y with 4680 a while ago
They are giving out stocks up to 2000 not a 1000...they do very welll...because they are a solid customer oriented business
Karpathy, picking up different experience and then coming back to Tesla would be awesome!
Agreed. But he’s been there, done that. Rich and famous, he needs a more difficult challenge.
@@FrunkensteinVonZipperneck Optimus surely includes everything including AGI or beyond… plenty for him to chew on at Tesla 😏
Preach it Brother!
In nyc here just got 12. Very impressive. Not perfect yet but WOW
That's really good!! That means you wish to hold for a long time. Buy 2% of the innovation shares and add to your portfolio, as short term investor you'll be making 3.4% in coming weeks. If you don't understand, I can explain better. Do you have the new TSLA INNOVATION SHARES?
That's really good!! That means you wish to hold for a long time. Buy 2% of the innovation shares and add to your portfolio, as short term investor you'll be making 3.4% in coming weeks.
Electrified, Subscribed because your videos always make me smile!
Ok happy 🐇🐣 Easter Dillon Loomis 22 from Trisha
Great report Brother!
I especially enjoyed the Karpathy segment!
Cheers, Eric
my pleasure eric! glad to hear it :)
Have a great Friday!
1:38 - you can check updates only once a day
No, Elon said they had a supply of 4 to 6 weeks AND were prodicing 1,000 sets a week.
Had FSD since 2020. Saved me from two freeway accidents-avoided them without my intervention. But now 12.3 is amazing - so glad I bought into it early.
Same: since 2020, saved my life more than once. Loving 12…
@@michaelsmithers4900 saved your life? How were you able to determine that you would've been killed?
Helps me stay safe daily.
@@darylfoster7944well I’ve fallen asleep at the wheel a couple of times as a result of working night shifts and it stays nice and safe in the lane and alarms to tell me to wake up. Much safer than my old Honda Insight that used the rumble strip or ditch to wake me up.
Then there’s the times I signaled it to make a lane change and it didn’t bc it saw a car I didn’t see.
You've been funk-ta-fied
Happy Easter
2:19 Yep. Paid for FSD in 2018-and have been actively using/testing since first available-so it's hard seeing lots of other newer buyers getting 12 before me.
OK, here's what I think will happen for you.
Elon told us a few days ago that Tesla was no longer computer-constrained. This cinstraint has been holding up FSD development. But now, they're almost finished.
For their marketing, Tesla need to know how new customers react to FSD. This year, auto revenues will be fairly flat, but I'm thinking that the software opportunity could be huge. When it comes to you personally, FSD is improving so fast, I think you're likely to see an almost-finished version around April 15th. Watch the regulators for later this year.
Checking hourly too!
glad i'm not alone...disappointed every time 😂
Dillion. In Manufacturing you only want 1 bottle neck. You want it to be in the most expensive part of your assembly line. If your bottle neck is in some place inexpensive you are gating entire line on some thing cheap to fix. In summary I would assume that battery capacity will be directly proportional to CT numbers for awhile. Eventually hitting another bottleneck that will quickly be eliminated if demand stays at the record high it is today.
Thank You for your continued effort to provide a quick read of the daily Tesla buzz
no delay is the most important feature of EVs. It is the best feature on icy roads and dirt roads. Also one pedal driving is a bit dangerous since it may cause instability when you are on ice. Also those automatuc stability features those will make you blind til moment when system is unstable at degree when you can't get it back. The only thing to know is start driving and do panic breaking test and then hope that road is not changing.
FSD needs training data from top quality drivers - the one percent who follow the behaviours Tesla seeks to implement.
If you ask the drivers 80% would say they are top quality drivers
FSD needs *training* from top quality drivers AND "edge cases" from the deluded who think they are "expert".
.
It will increasingly be dealing with what OTHER vehicles (drivers) do wrong rather than learning the rules "itself".
Great still at the end - maybe use it to replace your opening photo? Though what's the mystery fifth car - the new Model 3?
Dillon, I think Tesla's current actions with new customers and FSD has subtleties you're not getting.
First, it tells me that Tesla is so close they think this is a big selling point, and they want feedback from new customers to see how they feel about the product.
When it comes to existing users, the fact that Tesla isn't rolling out 12.3 to them tells me that Tesla is moving so fast right now, that maybe by mid-April they're expecting to have something that's almost finished. A lot of people who purchased FSD are pretty disillusioned with their purchase. If the current version 12.3 was what they're going to be stuck with for 6 months, then Tesla would ship it. The fact they haven't means to me that the spectacular version is almost here!
One clue is that Elon told us a few days ago that Tesla no longer has any compute constraints in their AI development. He also told us a couple of weeks ago that AI has got 10 times smarter in the past six months.
I also wanted to address another topic I hear analysts talk all kinds of rubbish about Tesla's car pricing. Tesla has huge advantages over any other volume manufacturer.
Tesla is the only volume car manufacturer (ICE or EV) who goes from components through the manufacturing process and delivers the finished products to to the end user. Tesla have a perfect information model. They know exactly what it costs to build their cars, and the selling price of every vehicle. As well, Tesla has about 16 days of inventory. They turn over their cars so fast, they generate a ;positive cash flow azs their volume grows.
The rest of the big auto manufacturers have a huge problem. They know how many cars they sell to their dealers, but they have no idea how many of those vehicles have been sold, or what the retail price the vehicles were sold for. This dislocation means that GM, for example, don't control the price to the end user, and if GM drop the price, the dealer may still be gouging the buyer with extra markups. THese information dislocations create planning problems.
This gives Tesla a huge advantage. They know to the nearest minute when the customer receives their vehicle. They know exactly how many cars are coming off their production lines, how many are sold, how many are available for sale, and the exact price each vehicle has been sold for.
If Tesla need to lower the sales price to move more volume, when they lower the selling price they know immediately the effect that new pricing has on car sales volumes because every car is sold directly by Tesla.
The most important business element Tesla needs to manage is cash flow. Rapidly growing businesses usually have a cash flow problem: if they double sales, they need twice as much money for inventory, as well as high admin and sales staff costs.
I started a computer company in the US in 1983. It had proprietary technology, R&D, manufacturing, marketing department, sales department, and after-sales maintenance. After our first year, for three years we grew at 300% per annum. That three times first year volume in the second year, 9 times in the third year, and 27 times in the fourth year. In other words, tt the end of four years, we were selling 27 times as much equipment as we averaged in our first year.
The structure of a fast-growing business is the most important thing. If you don't have lots of extra money for growth, then the business needs to be structured to throw extra cash flow to fund that growth.
I'm an economist and a business accountant according to my University qualifications. I know all the theory. I did it in practice as a forensic accountant fixing fairly large companies in my early days. I had skills before I started my own business. The Goiliath I competed with was IBM, but they were much more civilised than the US auto industry.
So I look at Tesla, which did this David and Goliath trip, with wonder! Tesla was a tiny company that has used positive cash flow to grow in a spectacular way. When Elon tells the world that Tesla almost went broke multiple times, most people just dismiss this with a wave of their hand, because they've never employed a whole lot of people and faced the possibility that all these wonderful people who put their financial welfare in your hands may lose their jobs. It's very real when you've been there.
So when I look at Tesla's sales strategy, it's sheer genius. They optimize price and demand like no other company, and when they build vehicles like the Cybertruck, who needs advertising? PR, maybe, but advertising? Nah.
So tell me this, Dillon. As a financial adviser, what would you suggest if you had a 70% probability that Tesla was going to complete FSD by June 30 this year?
appreciate you taking the time to share richard! i don't think tesla's chances of solving fsd by that day are that high - i think reverse and parking lots for robotaxi pickups could take some time and we have no idea where the regulatory situation is for tesla state by state
but yeah, feature complete fsd (still with driver) should boost take rate and margins and have a real impact which could show up in q3/q4 and could be material but the price is still pretty steep, especially for people that don't drive that much
@@DillonLoomis22 If it's "still with driver", then how can it be "feature-complete" FSD? Makes no sense, does it? The essence of "full self-driving" is the absence of a driver.
@@MooseOnEarth The question is not so much as when Tesla FSD will be 4 times as good as a competent human, but when regulators will approve FSD for use without supervision.
In the early days of automobiles, the law said somebody had to walk in front of the vehicle to warn people. Crazy, but the big slow-down on new tech implementation in the US is going to be all those lawyers in Congress and Senate who know nothing about tech and are going to vote for whatever their lobbyists tell them. :D
I think we're going to see an unveil of a Tesla hybrid supercomputer that uses D1 chips and also Nvidia chips. Watch for this in October.
@@richardhamilton-gibbs6360 Waymo and GM Cruise have regulatory permission in some regions of the US for true driverless. This is not a regulatory problem. It is a problem of Tesla underperforming in tests and not meeting requirements - at least for those regions.
so if you've made a spill on your CT seat, you pull in a nio swap station and you get new clean seat
Rimac is going for the business user of BESS, not grid application. Their system can be "Up To" 734kwh, but it can be scaled downwards as well.
Agreed, vision is the way forward. Lidar and Ultrasonics just muddy the water with their low resolution. They just don't add much.
Do we think Tesla's next gen platform will include steering wheels?
yes just started video so not sure whats discussed but will point out that with steer by wire a removable human controls is simplified. 😉
actually could be an add on option vs standard/removable matter of timing which even they wont know till they are reaching production
Earliest versions yes and for some yrs to come.
Should always be significant demand for human driving capability--even if you never off road, track or canyon dash--you want that capability and backup to autonomous. I may realistically need to sprint thru edge of a wild fire, can't yet imagine FSD doing *that my way.*
I don't want to be stranded on some remote dirt road cuz FSD crashed and I want to drive such roads myself anyway, it's part of the 'adventure', entertainment.
@@Mrbfgray
It is unfortunate that you did not highlight the recent technical advances Tesla has made to signifcantly reduce the costs of car production. Steer by wire, a proper ethernet lan improving peripheral responsiveness, increasingly large GigaCastings, 48v architecture to reduce weight, the "unboxed" process to reduce build footprint and factory volume reduction, Humanoid robot for dangerous & mundane work, the novel use of different materials to reduce weight & costs
etc..
I sure hope so
MKBHD also mentioned that the model Y is around 50-55k.
10:20 Dillon, is the prediction tracker viewable somewhere?
Brother, what is the order of these branch rollouts?
I have a Feb, 2022 delivery Model Y LR with the v11.1 2024.8.4.
Cheers, Eric
THANKS DILLON 🤗 FOR SHARING THE GOOD NEWS 💚💚💚
“Let me talk to Jensen”.
Margins should be OK for Q1. Virtually nothing is happening in the way of capital investment apart from the Austin and Driscoll plants. Shanghai has reduced labour costs, Berlin only produces 5 days a week, Austin too?? I think Austin did a burst production test thus so many vehicles in a couple of days. Plant will run out of storage space for packs if CT is too far behind cell production.
I can fully imagine driving controls that either fold away or are easily removable - optional for us stick driving junkies.
Good job.
How do I get update
I agree in principle that FSD updates should roll out FCFS, but as a retired software & hardware engineer I can imagine many more edge cases with the mixture of older hardware platforms needing special attention in design or training, testing, & confirmation of critical behaviors. Thats all much simpler on the latest simpler platforms lacking the obsoleted more complicated sensors.
I think you misunderstood what Tesla meant by keeping battery production ahead of vehicle production. It doesn't mean that they want to have a greater rate of battery production than vehicle production. It means that they want to have a certain ready supply of batteries for vehicles being produced so that they don't have to shut down a vehicle production line due to a battery shortage. For the production rate, you definitely want to match the battery and vehicle rates.
Bro Polestar 4 you didn’t tell us if it has the NACS charger. Very important detail.
Me in Virginia getting my 2024.3.6 update this morning👀😂
I thought you knew there would be at least two models on the next gen platform, one with steering wheel for the public and one with no steering wheel specifically for Tesla owned Robotaxi fleet.
I wouldn't put it past them to put in a wheel that can just be installed or removed at will.
@@Cybertruck1000
Imagine 2 bolt holes just below the dash.
.
2 more in the front edge of the pack, in line with "the driver".
.
A unit containing "steering" wheel, feedback system and pedals, with fixing points matching those bolts.
(They can be light weight, since there's no impact performance requirement)
.
A single, flexible data cable mounted centrally which fits behind the dash.
Power cable, the same.
.
Now, duplicate those mounting locations on "the other side" of the vehicle..
.
You now have an ambidextrous vehicle.
.
The rest is software.
@@rogerstarkey5390 I personally think Tesla Robotaxi won't be a thing for a decade, although I'd like it to be. Such a massive hard Hill to climb technically and then there's the different legislators to deal with. The next gen will, in Elon's in words will be a massive change in car production. Can't wait to see it. There's a lot of expectation.
Then when you work in a union environment like I do, the union thinks they’re in control.
I love polestar, but they are just too expensive.
"Polestar", or "Volvo"?
.
Not the same.
Don’t worry about ideal! Life has a lot of moving parts! Relax and count your blessings!
Charging from the road? A quarter mile at highway speeds is a staggering 15 seconds. At 400kw, that's an amazing 1.67 kwh. Silly.
2:44 Ashok wasn’t commenting on that same clip
just realized the FSD clip from Edge Case was edited out accidentally...my bad 🤦🏻♂
@@DillonLoomis22 Ah gotcha. No worries Dillon, great vid nonetheless 🙂
From what I have seen from the latest videos I think they are closer to 850 Cybertruck per week and 4680 are closer to 1350 packs per week. In Q2 2500 per week is quite feasible. Tesla Refinery plant startup will help to reach 5.000 per week in 2025
You just heard in this vid that essentially any company electing to compete head-to-head with Tesla is doomed. The only way for them to survive is find a niche market outside of Tesla focus.
Greenlane's initiative will be most welcome, and I suspect very profitable.
Surprise, surprise, Mexico doesn't have a cohesive strategy when it comes to charging. I wonder if Mexico is the right country for Tesla to build their largest factory
Keeping 50% of battery production in reverse is not good use of resources. I believe it would be closer to 20% reserve. Also please keep in mind that Tesla is ramping 4680 production also. So I think that Tesla is still capable of doing 800-1000 CTs a week.
Have you made any pre order yet or test drive?
Can you ask for software update that will give older @teslas brake hold after regen. You rock!
Do you have a Tesla?
Yeah,@@ronald_jeffery17 🙄
@@ronald_jeffery17 Why would he ask for that if he didn't?
@@incognitotorpedo42
Tesla pours through driver-flagged interventions, of course, but also through millions of miles of driving to find best-driver examples on which to train for edge cases. It is being said that one motivation for free 30-day FSD trials may be to feed data-hungry neural net training with rarer and rarer edge cases--- successfully handled--to add extra 9's to the decimal accuracy percentages.
Tesla has had tons of battery packs in storage even before ct production started, so they are likely way ahead of current vehicle production.
Have you made any pre-order or test drive?
@@ronald_jeffery17 I preordered a ct and Tesla already reached out about the foundation series. But I won't buy the ct due to the low range and because I overspent on my Model Y at $58k. My ct order is @ 81k. I guess they'll contact me about that delivery by June.
How secure are those storage depots. There are parties out there stocking up on hotdogs and marshmallows
@@eugeniustheodidactus8890
Ok. That's great news.
Buy the New Tesla Shares, it is worth a try
@@eugeniustheodidactus8890 that's great news. Do you have Tesla New shares?
Cinnastax
Can you hear in Karpathy's accent that he lived in Slovakia til 16 y old? I think i do.
EV Mr D ✔️🖖🌎Yes that's competition in a global economy!
Tesla already has a lot of 4680 in the store to make a lot of CT ..
They are giving out stocks up to 2000 not a 1000...they do very welll...because they are a solid customer oriented business
21:42 Greenlane is a total waste of money and materials, by the time it is ready all trucks and cars will have plenty of battery capacity to drive without it.
Even if the electricity cost was comparable to the grid cost it wouldn't be used at all, why? The driver would have to drive in one lane only and maybe be forced to drive a mph slower than anticipated and they will have to install some special device!
They have it in Germany and it is not used at all
Hi 🎉 Dillon Loomis 22 from Trisha 😊
Don't forget that xpeng allegedly stole tesla autopilot software.
They saw how much battery capacity the US installed and now they're serious
This means game over for Tesla right?
Also, brand new customer on the 2024 branch who paid for it (mistake) also doesn't have it yet. However, I expect it within "2 weeks"
What model did you purchase?
Have you pre- ordered or test driven?
Yehehe
@@ronald_jeffery17 A Highland and already took delivery before the changes this week.
@@hoofzy that's great news.
Have you been given a date?
@@hoofzy
Nice to connect, how is it going?
Also who watched the veritasium video and freaked out when @17:50 the ceo said 37% 💀
Karpathy's comments at 12:17
Hey, if they want to match Mexico's requirement of having two types of chargers... Just add a USB Charging option :-). That way you can charge your EV and your cell phone at the same time... Done! :-). (And with all the EVs being standardized on the Tesla Charge port, this is a stupid requirement, that must be getting pushed by one of the companies that didn't do that route? Who??)
Yeah, not cool for us that have been waiting forever. 😠
That's really good!! That means you wish to hold for a long time. Buy 2% of the innovation shares and add to your portfolio, as short term investor you'll be making 3.4% in coming weeks. If you don't understand, I can explain better. Do you have the new TSLA INNOVATION SHARES?
@@ronald_jeffery17 Stop shilling.
I’m fairly sure Volvo produces HGVs and other industrial vehicles (piste bashers etc) with diesel engines.
Volvo Trucks seperate company.
@@waynerussell6401 thanks, good to know. Who owns this separate company?
Even Hyundai that has continuosly built ev since 1991 is way behing Tesla. Since the Model S all Tesla ev have been manufactured as a SDV, and that is the reason that OTA updates work. During those years Tesla has gone further since they have been replacing outside chips, for in house desinged chips.
Sounds like U.S. Special Ops Delta Force Team. SMART!!!
What does?
(Tesla?)
12:10 and this is what our European Safety regulators want with the new rules. More buttons for more confusion
Where do you come up with your "alternative pronunciations"?
So Elon is NOT distracted then? 😜
so how comes Tesla is so slow at bringing new models to the market if his teams are so agile?
Has Indiana invented a perpetual motion highway?
The new model y can’t come soon enough
Have you made any pre order yet or test drive?
@@ronald_jeffery17 no
@@ronald_jeffery17Why are you spamming?
@@darylfortney8081
Nice to connect, how is it going?
I thought a little bit of floor-it delay was a 'sure you mean that?' thing, at least in chill mode.
Agreed. Include the need for spurs, for foul language (as in bullocky), a whip.
Maybe have steam engine delay, wait for pressure to build?
Call it turbo delay - fit it Porsche umm "turbo".
The people who claim that you need radar for self driving are like the people before the Wright brothers who claimed that heavier than air flight was impossible. They ignored birds like the modern version is ignoring human drivers with eyeballs only.
Would still like to see radar included in the safety suite
@@MbT379 why? It increase costs? To create conflicts between senses?
For more information on Tesla SMR: ruclips.net/video/cuFgHfgpqCc/видео.html
Strong news, but the market will miss it until Tesla realizes all the deferred revenue from FSD
Will Cybertruck owners get FSD?
Eventually
❤
I'm not pleased that there is only Teslas standard otlets are in use. When I roadtrip using Ice Wehicles gas is standardized.Ccs is pretty much standard world wide so island named US has different plug in mind that is les than 5% of global population. to adapt one company adapter has risks.
Go Dillon!!
👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻✌🏻
@2:05, I am complaining. I paid $75k for my Model Y in 2022 with FSD. Why I am I not good enough. I still owe more than what a new Model Y costs now. And new buyers not even paying for it, get it free for a month???
Hey what ever the people say we have the data generated from thousands of rides so its learning tons each day.
Hmm... I wonder how often Mary Bara talks tech with GM engineer... Holy shit, I was typing that, then you just said it. lol. nvm.
Dillon, you just made Good Friday a Bad Friday. ;-)
It’s been over 7 years for me. Tesla still hasn’t updated my car with FSD beta! I’m stuck with MCU1 and Tesla will not do anything for me!! So when you say it’s unfair for new owners to get FSD beta before older owners!! So unfair!!
I don’t understand the wireless powered highway. They can’t keep the roads in good shape now. So let’s make the road cost 10x more to solve an already solved problem? I guess when it’s government money….spend away!
Exactly.
Have you made any pre order yet or test drive?
@@ronald_jeffery17 stop trolling
And take over a year to install on only 1/4 mile of highway (at probably many millions of dollars), to give a 15 sec charge to vanishingly small number of EVs equipped with compatible wireless charging.
Right, very cost effective. But it is grant money so it is OK.
Does it even work when there's snow?