Why Invest in Tesla Stock... according to Elon Musk (Ep. 694)
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- Опубликовано: 3 ноя 2022
- Elon Musk was interview by Ron Baron this morning and was asked why invest in Tesla.
Full Elon Musk interview by Ron Baron: • Elon Musk interviewed ...
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A car isn't just a faster horse. And an autonomous vehicle isn't just a "car that drives itself," it's a fundamental paradigm shift in transportation - just like the horse -> automobile transition was.
Well said
An EV is an evolution. It's still a car, just with a different drivetrain, and better software. FSD is a revolution because it changes the dynamics of transportation in so many ways.
well said.
I would even argue that the transition from ICE cars to BEV is as significant as the switch from horse and buggy to horseless carriage. Might ICE and BEV look similar on the street? Yes. And yet it's so much more efficient underneath. Plus BEV manufacture is only marginally like making an ICE car. That's why legacy and brand new automakers are having such a hard time making BEVs at scale...BEVs are a big step change forward.
So let's take it to the end state. What happens when the fundamental paradigm shift is from humans to androids? When an android can do everything better than a human. This will sound dumb but I 'm old enough to remember the first Terminator movie. There seems to be a lot of parallels here with AI, satellites and robots. Safeguards should be put in place so that whoever follows as CEO in Elon's footsteps cannot put human survival/freedom at risk. Even a person with good intentions with this much power can be dangerous.
Tesla will not stop at 20M, it is just a milestone.
Yes, because it would still take 100 years to replace all ICE vehicles.
@@far-from-home Only took ten years to replace 80% of all horses.
@@cyumadbrosummit3534 their is over 2 Billion Vehicles worldwide so it will take way more than 10 years but if Tesla deploys a Robotaxies and one Robotaxie replaces 5 vehicles on the road just do the math if Tesla produces say 20 to 30 million Robotaxies per year by 2035
Dam right next milestone 40 too 50 million per year 🤔
And cybertruck got pushed another year. 😆
Love the presentation. Smart as usual. You use your brain well. Thank you!!!
I'm loving this drop in price. Buying it up!
Thanks for editing out the echo!
Thank you, Dave Lee, the one stop place for investing in Tesla.
thx for linking to full interview
The audio is amazing on this video channel ❤❤❤thanks
Dave you’re incredible thanks
Dave’s not here.
Thanks Dave!
After this painful dark tunnel, I see very bright future.
I sure hope you’re right. This is definitely a painful, dark tunnel and it feels like it will never stop.
@@thefish5861 it won't for a long time. And It will get worse first
Now is the time that makes millionaires. The Wealth shifts from institutional investors to retail until the institutional investors realise they made a huge mistake.
Dave’s not here man
how would you factor in the R&D costs that tesla does per car plus the cost of the AI running behind the scenes? if these costs are factored in is the car still as high a profit margin?
Luv ur comprehensive chats! Exactly what we need 2 keep up 2 speed🚘as we journey thru life🛒👨🔧Thanx 2 ya' Dave!
Thanks for your love care and support, it's my pleasure talking to you here. Where are you?? from..?
Thanks Dave!
Simplicity is the key to excellence.
I believe that Elon expects the energy side of the business would also eclipse the vehicle side of the business 😉
And I don't think he sees a big disruption in technology beyond the rapid explosion of renewable tech - but no tech breakthrough.
When you own a self driving car, you essentially own a robot you can send out to work for you. Like owning a house you can rent out to make money, the car goes from being a liability to an asset. Your only earning limit them becomes how many cars you can have driving for you. Extrapolate that to optimus: you can buy a robot and send it out to work for you doing a laborious job say like mining. You get paid for the robots labour and it becomes an asset. If that's profitable you simply buy more robots and add them to your fleet.
Dave Lee thoughts are crystal clear for me.
Now do “insane bear case for the macro" 😆
Thanks for this video! Good information!
Thanks for your love care and support, it's my pleasure talking to you here. Where are you from..?..
Excellent video!
Great video Dave
Elon looks tired. He needs to rest. You forgot Tesla Energy which could be as big as the car.
People have been saying that for years
When you find you bought garbage with 44 billion you would be tired too
Thanks Dave
Thanks good video.
Thx Dave 👍😀
Those questions at the end were so silly …asking Elon if he’s thought of something is 😂
Musk is in Full Pump Mode (FPM).
Dave is a really good sales person.
FSD, Optima, and you did not even mention the many aspects of energy - autobidder, solar, and megapack. And that is just with Tesla! Add Twitter, SpaceX, the Boring Company, and Nuerralink!
Thanks for laying it all out Dave. I’m getting tired of people like Gary Black with their short term focus.
There is also enery, we just need to indure this temporary pain
Robotaxis don't solve congestion, they increase it, same as any other rideshare. Every trip becomes two trips, one with no passengers. Maybe you save parking space overall. The only owners able to capitalize on autonomy will be the ones whose cars have space to operate.
Keep pushing 💪 👌 💯 🙏
Why would I be more likely to rent out my car if it self-driving?
Could the car buy electricity during off peak hours and sell it back to the grid during on peak lol passive income
if the utility of a car increases 5 fold and price rises accordingly, the model y would be north of $250k .
No other ceo speaks like Elon.
Brilliant.
Thanks for your love care and support, it's my pleasure talking to you here. Where are you from??
I couldn’t stop myself & bought more at 205 while waiting patiently for mid 1’s lol
I love your content Dave, but I feel like you've never been anything but "bullish" (as an acceptable way to say "overly optimistic") about literally everything happening to Tesla for the last 2 years.
I know the whole point of this channel is to be a massive Tesla enthusiast, and I appreciate that (I'm also invested in Tesla, even after another terrible day where we hit yearly lows again), but sometimes I feel like you're kind of losing some (and I insist I'm just saying "SOME") credibility because you never ever seem to even point out any negative point/drawback... Obviously there has been many for the last months, let's not lie.
Hope I didn't appear to be "hating" and that your fans won't pounce on me to slit my throat, but this is how I've been feeling about your contents for quite a while, now.
Agree !!!
Agree!!!
Yes, there are two sides of the coin. And many of us don’t have enough horizon to at least recoup for the losses considering inflation and keeping money instead on guaranteed interest even if it’s low.
@@irinavishnevsky19 low interest? You could have gotten 9% on an I Bond. Now it's still paying 6.9%.
Agree
Optimus can deliver immediate value incrementally compare to robotax fleet. The bots can be deployed to many specialized tasks much more rapidly. Until we have Lvl5 there is no robotax.
If say the M3 costs 40k but because of FSD and robotaxi, the value of it is 200k... the Gov will tax 100k and Tesla raise price to 70k, buyers has 30k at most
Tesla FSD learns from actual drivers, as soon as Tesla FSD is finished, there is essentially no need for drivers any more.
Once drivers aren't needed any more, nobody will get or renew their drivers license. Once there are no people with a drivers license, nobody with FSD can teach other companies their FSD how to drive properly. In other words, Tesla FSD will be an unlimited amount of years ahead, not just +-5 years.
Maybe instead of using Tesla vehicles as taxis, maybe they should design Teslas to be connected to the grid as a backup batteries. This may cannibalize Tesla's PowerWall, PowerPack, and MegaPack sales, and may be the reason they don't want to connect Teslas to the grid like other car companies. But I personally would rather my Teslas be connected to the grid, than be used as taxis.
Very interesting and encouraging for shareholders. That being said, did Elon explain how the value of the vehicle will be 5x? As always, thanks Dave!!!
The 5x comes from a car being able to not need a driver to be on the road. So it all comes down to robotaxis, that will be on the road all day long, and not just when you go to work or back home. This also will probably mean, that owning a car is dumb, because you could just order a robotaxi via an app, it'll be at your place in a few minutes, you ride it to where you need to go, and then the car picks up the next passenger.
5x comes from the taxi industry where the average taxi drives 5x more than a personal vehicle
Drug smuggling through hyperloops.
there is no need to own cars as most car owners will use robotaxis. Demand for Tesla will drop as Tesla runs robotaxis to earn cab fares instead of selling cars. In 2030 cab fares will be cheaper than owning a car so that demand for evs will drop as uber will run robotaxis and 10 other robotaxis companies to compete to Tesla robotaxis. Private owners will not be able to lease as robotaxis unless they have commercial fleet license and insurance.
@@ken-mb5cp The Boring Company is not nearly as boring as it first appears. 😏
Wouldn’t the usage of the card be capped by our current infrastructure? If a car is being used 5x more, that would mean 5x the times of cars on the road? I don’t see big cities who already have massive congestion issues being able to handle this. If anything congestion would probably get so bad that people would move much more to public transport. Cost per mile would presumably increase for users of robo taxis as well because it would take much longer to get anywhere. I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t understand how we would get around the infrastructure bottleneck?
Feel so grateful right now for Elon, Lex, you, Gali, Rob and all the Tesla community who adores intelligent sustainability and evolving full human potential. You feel like a family, though prolly very few people ever read and hear my comments. I'm feeling it nevertheless. Thank you for existing
GJ is right.
@@ax2938 that's good that you got out. Did you think the oil bosses and friends just bend over and die while being spanked while they're playing their favorite game: Den daddy and the naughty scout screwing the planet? Confidence in... vision...seems lil foggy. Maybe invest in oil instead...you could make some big bucks
@@ax2938 then I will buy more haha
@@ax2938 Tesla stock has no value, the developements are 100% psychology.
@@jindatidicaprio6615 You know that Elon is a predator and constantly giving empty promisses right? He would promiss you "evolving full human potential" through a touch screen toaster if that was the only thing he had. Luckily he has level 2 autonomy cars wich he is wrongfully labeling as full self driving.
So much for saving the planet.
2008, Apple shares fell 50 percent until the bottom was reached. Tesla reached this level already, but continues to fall. Forward PE is ridiculously low at 35. Could we see a 20 - 10 PE ratio, even though Tesla is constantly breaking new records and EPS growth is over 70% YoY!?!
Forward PE is about 50 to 55. Not 35, spreading fake facts, go back to school and stop spreading misinformation, thank you.
@@Kejzeren The problem here is not misinformation, but the fact that you don't know how to calculate the forward PE of a company. I won't teach how to do it, but I just Google it and copy/paste it for you:
Tesla's PE Ratio without NRI for today is 64.11.
Tesla's Forward PE Ratio for today is 37.92.
@@Kejzeren Mate, forward looking PE depends on future EPS. Zack predicts a forward PE ratio of 57. But that doesn't make any sense, because we already reached a PE level of 65 and Tesla's EPS is growing fast. Other websites are more accurate, predicting a future PE between 35 - 40, based on the current stock price. So what's your problem?
@@Kejzeren Tesla EPS for the twelve months ending September 30, 2022 was $3.24, a 213.26% increase YOY. For the quarter ending September 30, 2022 was $0.95, a 97.92% increase YOY. How can Tesla's future PE remain almost the same if the stock price continues falling, while EPS is growing like this? Please explain? And where are the fake facts man!?!?
@@asanrojin7355 It doesn't make sense to predict that the stock will continue to fall because no one knows. It will be more difficult to continue to scale 50% a year in production as the cars needed is growing exponentional. Thus EPS will not increase 97% next couple of quarters as it has been this quarter. I find it stupid to estimate a future EPS since it will with 100% certainty be wrong, that's why I estimate with current EPS to be conservative. I'm bullish on TSLA but let's not get ahead of ourselves.
Thanks Dave for the video and all you do. Also thanks for removing your annoying intro music.🎉😂
Tesla's humanoid robot is just one form factor. Once the AI software improves, I expect many more models specialised all use cases including extreme and challenging tasks.
I doubt it, Tesla won't add that sort of complexity unless absolutely necessary. Better to mass produce a universal form factor at the lowest possible cost.
@@ThePredatherion I understand and mostly agree with your point. Keep in mind there are already robots in factories and warehouses. Tesla's robotics AI could just be installed on these existing robots to optimise coordination.
Best AI company
I think it is more than just cars or even humanoid robots but Dojo regardless of the form factor that ends up connecting to it. If bees go extinct robot bees connected to Dojo would be needed to pollinate plants for instance. To do that they would need to optimize it for flight and can start with drones delivering packages. Any endless number of form factors can be useful when connected to Dojo. Doesn't matter if it rolls, walks, runs, crawls, flies, swims or slithers it can use vision to navigate the world on land or under it, in the air or the depths of the sea.
i would assume your projection of future autonomous is wrong... the case with drive to work and after that car used for taxi... the real world use case would be more of ... you drive your car and your car can go back home to take someone else from house to else where... after that, it will just go to serve more people in the family ... one single car can replace multiple.. with today so many cars... there will be enough car uses with way less cars for families... from there maybe you can reimagine with this senariou
Thanks Dave.
Robotaxi needs to make most of its profits from “per mile fees”. $15k is a lot. If they were to charge $50k it would slow progress.
The huge difference between cars and Tesla Bot is in their software use. A car has not really much room for improvement (for $2000 they can add some performance, for example). But a humanoid robot is sold as a computer with some basic capabilities. But what if one needs, to say, an experienced Patek Philippe wristwatch repair robot? A multipurpose Optimus would not be able to perform such a niche task. But through a software update, it could. Maybe renting this software for a day could cost $1000 and it would save the user maybe 10 times more. Any kind of specialization could be downloaded permanently or rented for a short time (an experienced chef, a medic, a non--fsd car driver, etc). This is an almost unlimited source of revenue when you have all Tesla Bots linked together through internet connection that share what they have learnt
not so sure about autonomy value, one has to realize that by being able to farm out cars, everyone would want to buy one. once that scale is achieved , it would then have decreasing value. so how would tesla scale?
At 4.36 you said 80% but it would be 400%. Build for 20 and sell for 100.
Mark ups and gross margins on the selling price are two different things. A mark up of 400% is 80% gross profit.
Yep it’s INSANE
DAVE HERE.
Any way you can have the person (bot?) blocked that is posing as Dave in the replies to comments?
Invest in Tesla is an opportunity, but unfortunately this is all wipped out by ridiculous Elon´s mistakes like this twitter deal. We invested in Tesla not in twitter, we have all the investors let Elon know we are furious at this kind of buying nonsense companies. We have to raise our voices, we are seeing our saving been wipped out.
GDP/capita X capita
Elon is not only changing the world, but also changing the way I think about my own lifestyle and structure.
There is room to optimize everything!
LOL
These bot accounts really be saying vague shit
The thing about a fully autonomous car- what happens if it’s out there while you’re home asleep and it has a flat, some rando barfs in it, it gets sideswiped by someone. How does all this get handled? Seems like a lot of liability. Sure the trade off is it’s bringing in profit, but are most people ready to essentially run a business with their personal car?
There will be small business groups owning fleets of cars who do all this for sure
Yeah, I would never want to have my car be a robotaxi when I'm not driving it. I would much prefer to know my car is safe and clean in my garage and I can't imagine others who wouldn't want the same.
Will probably be a niche type industry like Airbnb or vrbo.
@@CodingZombie11 What if it made you 50k/yr?
@ken good question. If the robotaxi could make me 50k per year I might buy a second Tesla just to act as a Robotaxi, but I still wouldn't want my personal care to be used as a taxi. But then again I might sell the robotaxi Tesla if it's costing more to have it cleaned and maintained than it is making me.
If it costs Tesla $20k to build a car, and it sells it for $100K as a robotaxi, and it manufactures 20M of them per year, and investors give a multiple of 20, the valuation will be $80K * 20M * 20 = 32 trillion dollars. That's an increase of 45 times over the current price.
Slow down buddy, that’s is a big if
I’ll say this…your math is correct. Now, let’s keep our fingers crossed this comes to fruition in our lifetime. This would give us a share price north of $10K…which is hard to fathom today, but keep the faith folks!
No one will buy Tesla in 2025. Why? There are already 10K Evs in India and China now. Uber is buying up these 10K Evs and fit with 5K of sensors to deploy as robotaxis with fares cheaper than bus fares. Their costs is much lower than Tesla. They are JV with Chinese companies who already have pilot license in California. No one can run a robotaxis unless a fleet license with insurance.
I'm a bit on the fence about this general fsd idea. It seems that indeed no one is close when we're talking general. And general fsd is waaaay better and harder than geo-fenced. But something like 90% of people live in or very close to cities, so I'm just not so sure other companies need to be general to compete in the biggest markets, namely cities. They might compete very effectively on fixed regions.
Even more so, the countryside might not even have the density to support a usable robotaxi network, so it might be that there will be natural geo-fencing going on, making the harder-but-better approach a tough sell.
They don't scale that's the fundamental problem. Systems like Waymo don't work in all big cities (not even all US big cities). They operate only in one small part of one specific city based on HD maps. These maps need to be updated constantly. How do you scale that? The only alternative is to build a more general neural net model, that doesn't need HD maps to grasp the surrounding world. But for that you need huge and diverse training data and brutal compute power for training (and a capable AI team of course). Google has compute power but doesn't have a fleet to collect enough samples of the world. Others have neither fleet nor compute power. Tesla has them both. Tesla's fleet is basically a physical world search engine that keeps improving.
@@gaborszollosy2153 how do you scale? by mapping a new space. Should be as easy as driving through it a few times. How did they scale street view? just by driving literally everywhere. It's possible and they did it before. And then you can continuously update it by the cars themselves. And once they have something working, which they almost seem to have, they can grow their fleet. And as elon says himself, once these cars drive themselves, their value goes up 5x. This is also the case for information gathering. So really, I think that if other companies manage to get something working with however many crutches they need, they will be able to compete effectively.
Thx Dave
Yes. How many Folk have 100 k for a car ?
Not me
Cool
Hell yeah 👍👍
Why only 5 times more valuable, though? If it's driving 15 hours a day on average out of 24 for maintenance purposes, ride -hailing demand during different times (day/night and so on) and places, etc., compared to let's say an average person's driving time of 1 hour per day, then it's way more than 5 times more valuable
Thanks for this video. I'm extremely bullish on Tesla. I cannot wait to see how it all comes together for the company.
👍
5x utility ≠ 5x value. If FSD becomes a commodity feature, the value will eventually drop, unless there's a huge moat to protect that technology.
Right now, the moat is time. No other company is remotely close to solving it. If Tesla has it and nobody else does, the other companies may be forced to buy it from Tesla if their cars are deemed unsafe in comparison.
@@darylfoster7944 I'm bullish on Tesla, but MobilEye are not standing still either. Those features will become more and more standard (eg Adaptive Cruise control with Lane Keeping is now standard and doesn't warrant much premium anymore). Even if they don't achieve full general autonomy, it may suffice for 90% of driving. That 10% is key to robo taxis etc, but will not be perceived as warranting 5x the price of the car.
On the taxi side, people like Tony Seba expect prices to come down to pennies per mile. So that doesn't work out to $250,000 for a $50,000 car (with cost price $35,000).
It's not about value of car per se, it's about how many more people will buy it. Like smart phones, value definitely increased but the real catch was how everyone ended up owning one
@@bilgyno1 the point of FSD is not driver assist. As far as I'm concerned, if you're behind the wheel and paying attention, then you're driving. Driving is 99% mental. I could teach a 12 year old to keep the car inside the lane markers. The point of FSD is to sit in the back seat and sleep, or whatever.
@Asbestos Flake where are you? Tesla down 40% since episode 279? So bad that Dave Lee removed the episode so I stopped embarrassing you
My ship has already sunk.
When robotaxi arrives, Tesla cars owners are going to have to compete with that and thus lend out their car less and less. Tesla will take the lion share of the ride share profit. Regardless, the stock goes higher.
Tesla could keep ownership and deploy them accordingly
Elon Looks so much like his dad in the series.
I don’t know. Large amount of population love their cars. May happen eventually but will take years I think. Several hundred millions of gas vehicles that will be around for awhile even if they stopped selling them tomorrow.
WS Only adds thing when proven....and then barely at half the potential thus; WS keeps TSLA price down.
Q: Would you let someone else use your car? I believe the 5X value isn't relevant! If I buy a Tesla (for a fairly big amount of $) I would never let it be a RoboTaxi. What do you think?
Buy a second for renting out. Really I see business fleets such as Hertz provide most of the maintenance services for robotaxi. Our business startups. All using Tesla.
@@StevenFalkner Sounds reasonable for Hertz.... But Most people can afford only one car (if any)...
Musk ~ A National Treasure.
🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸☮️
Grata para melhor acompanhar libere o campo da legenda sou do Brasil meu idioma português
when autonamous is actually achieved we wont be needing so much cars in city... maybe we can finally lessen the cars in city lessen polution by cars
Yes! Fewer cars regardless of EV, FSD tech is what humanity's objective should be.
All I want is a Tesla Powerwall. I live in the UK and I simply cannot even buy one because they cannot supply. Storage will be bigger than cars ultimately. Not everyone needs a car, but everyone like a cup of tea boiled free off the solar panels.
Storage will be huge if the plan is to go 100% solar, but that will take many decades.
@@darylfoster7944 Will be faster than you think and faster than many decades. Will be very different in 2030 and well on our way by then, wait and see.
@@duffgaryduff "well on our way" isn't 100%, or anything remotely close to it. Elon's estimate for storage needed to run the world is 300-400 Twh. We're not even at 1 Twh yet. Yes, it will take many decades.
If each car is 5 times more useful, will number of new cars needed each year from Tesla be an equivalent of 100 million cars? Optimus IMHO, will have a higher saturation point.
Still need the same number of cars to get people to and from work. Robotaxi fleet has to support max usage, not 2PM on a Sunday.
🙏
It’s not full self driving tho. can barely cross the street on its own
It’s a but remote for now but I am not going to be surprised when Elon would one day announce that Tesla will stop selling cars.
Tesla and Twitter stock. I expect twitter revenue to surpass expectations.
I'm still skeptical of the idea that you can commute to work & then your car can be a taxi for 7 or 8 hours. In the simplest case, if everyone else is doing the same thing, then who is left to be a taxi customer during working hours? A few stay at home moms who need to go grocery shopping? The many fewer people who work night shift? That's not a seriously profitable business model. Just my casual opinion, of course. I cannot predict the future, and admit it publicly without shame.
Elon started this trend of every company making electric cars
Seriously, it's difficult to assign a "value" to any product bought. Even if there's a value, why would anyone have to pay for the value to get it. For instance, I make my living via my laptop, my laptop is very valuable to me as it could have worth hundreds of thousands. But I only paid a grand for the laptop.
What if everyone that bought a laptop automatically started making hundreds of thousands of dollars. The value in the laptop you had to extract with your mind (skills)
Now what if the laptop came programmed to start making you money while you slept. Included in the box. Now it’s worth more than $1000
Tesla stock is down and Dave is in action pumping Tesla stock.
Yes, cars that can drive themselves are much more valuable.
But a company can only make high margins because of that if they’re the only company selling cars with that feature.
Eventually, that fat margin gets competed away.
So the bet is on how long will Tesla have that exclusive.
They won’t have it all if another company solves it a week later, unless it’s somehow patentable.
Does AI figure out do something in a way that can be patented?
All the more to get this done ASAP.
1. where are they going to make all those cars. Berlin took 2 years and there are no announced plans for a new plant. 2. Why is an autonomous car 5x more valuable 3. would you want you 50k car driving around autonomouslly picking up random people going to random places? What happens when your robo taxo went on a fare 50 mins from your office at 4 pm and now has to get back to your office to pick you up? just a couple basic ?s there arre many more.
call me crazy I wouldnt want my $50k driving all night picking up random people who are too drunk to drive on their own. I can only imagine the smell and condition of the car when i get up to go to work...now multiply that by 250 nights a year.
I don’t think Tesla will sell their FSD able cars when they become available for 100K most people will not be able to buy it. Instead I think Tesla will keep a $50/60 K as the base and then sell FSD prescriptions for $1000 per month for those who chose to buy it which I believe close to 90% will subscribe.
It's not important to me that a Tesla car would be worth 5x more - it's important to me that people realize that competitors to Tesla are worth 5x less. An economic decision to buy a non-Tesla vehicle will become an act of insanity.
I’m not so sure I’m going to ride my autonomous vehicle to work and then let strangers ride in it all day long. Can you imagine what you may find in the vehicle at the end of the day?
you should look in my car now -
Tesla always dropping when elon having an interview
Elon is the best person to predict the realization of these things and he is usually years out, see Semi, Cybertruck. Wall St. would be negligent basing their predictions on intangibles. FSD was going to be operational in 2019? Who knows when it will be done and get regulatory approval. It's always two weeks, or by the end of the year. But could it be two years, or five years or ten?
Oprimua ia juar