The Robots Are Coming... A Billion of Them (Ep. 749)
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- Опубликовано: 17 янв 2024
- I share my thoughts on the following exchange on X:
DavidSHolz: we should be expecting a billion humanoid robots on earth in the 2040s and a hundred billion (mostly alien) robots throughout the solar system in the 2060s
Elon Musk: Probably something like that, provided the foundations of civilization are stable
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Daves 2-cents is worth millions. Best Tesla advice and most grounded perspective of all.
100%. I’m all in Tesla as a single mother, and Dave gives me confidence to know what is going on through the noise. I appreciate Dave and his updates so much
And he doesn't drag it out for an hour. 👍
Yeah him and Rob Mauer from Tesla Daily
If you think about it, once you got the robot it can produce itself and scale almost endless.
That’s how Dyson spheres are made 👀
everyone been saying that for 100k years
not really, look at life, there are constraints that do not allow infinite growth and scale, same applies to artificial life.
@@sirus312 Source?
@@JC-nl3nhhence the word „almost“
The good thing about the robots is they can’t spit in your hamburger.
But they can add laxative instead :)
@@meelis79😂😂😂
Connected to the cloud, it could just wipe out your bank accounts or give you a criminal record. Way more powerful
Fastfood companies are already creating burger and fries vending machines doing the job of a minimum wage worker.
I think its time for another James Douma interview Dave.
Dave we missed you, I personally missed your perspective on what is going on at Tesla, in addition to the kind heart you have, thank you for everything🎉
Wishing your wife and family good health Dave - love your perspective!! You always give us something to think about....
I wanna see a neighborhood of Optimus’s shoveling snow from driveways around 2am when it’s all quiet and blanketed white. Just look out the window and hear the shovels scraping and see robots working hard.
😂😂😂 Already the charging stations are freezing up, so these humanoid robots, by Tesla should be very useful...😊😊😂
Great to see you making video again.
Apple will sell robot arm and leg separately
also 4 year later your robot will be slower.
And the proprietary cable to plug it in
@@darylfoster7944 Which changes every few years.
Great video, Thanks Dave! As always, cutting through the noise and minutia to get to the big helicopter picture. Very valuable for those who really listen.
Great to have you back Dave. I love your short on point analysis. Thank you very much!! 🙋🏻♂️😃
LOVE your 'right to the point', no fluff, insightful, informed, yet likable style. 😊
Thanks for all you do Dave.
Thanks so much Dave......Prayers for your family
THX DAVE,🤗 ALOT OF COMMON SENSE 🤔💚💚💚
Hi Dave, great insight. I hope all is well. 💙
Dave Lee. Thank you for your prospective on the Optimus Robot. The idea of Optimus helping someone living alone and needing help with everyday living chores and companionship is wonderful thought. I hadn’t thought of this type of work for a robot, this really hits home. The possibilities are so great and so numerous. Your presentations are an eye opener. I now have a new appreciation for the robot development and its importance. I’ve been a fan of your vids for a couple months. You will go far.
Thanks Dave
much needed info in these turbulent times
It is quite unlikely that AI will want to eliminate us. There are unlimited resources in the universe. All conflict is really about greed, and there is nothing to be greedy for with AI's capabilities. Secondly, humans and organic life in general are the most interesting things in the universe. Eliminating us is counterproductive to a data hungry intelligence.
Hey it’s Dave the TSLA PUMPER!
Initially a freighting thought Dave.
After listening to your presentation , i think you are on the right track.
Dave, you nailed it, as always! Thank you!
Can anyone imagine a few of these robots in some African village getting water back and fourth, stopping at a solar recharging station for maybe 15 minutes, and keeps going? Can anyone imagine the productivity unlocked when these women start going to school instead of fetching water?
I’m intrigued by this “potential” future, but this continues to bring me back to “The Terminator” & “The Matrix.” Gives a whole nother’ meaning to term “…Thus did man become the architect, of his own demise” - The 2nd Renaissance from The Animatrix
I have some Terminator vibes here Dave😮
Thank you Dave valuable content, xAI is another major product too and Dojo more possible with licensing.
always love to hear your point of view, yes I am investing 100% in tala stocks for the next 10 years plus .❤
This is superlative analysis.
So excited!!!!
Humanoid robots for the aging population is great for humanity and not only for financial reason!
Who's going to give them the robots? Most older people are scraping by on social security, and most working age people will have lost their jobs by then. If you're not rich by the time we have AGI, you're probably going to be homeless.
Don't worry they're going to take your jobs too
@@djangomarine6658Because technology has made everyone poorer. 😂
You nailed this topic, Dave. The only thing I would add is the SIGNIFICANT difference between phones/cars, which are 1:1/1:4 ratio of adoption per human, compared to humanoid robots, which will be much higher/human in ratio. When you account for the fact that the robots will be manufacturable laborers with, say 70% of human capabilities (in the near term), you can easily project 2:1, even 5:1 humanoid robots per person, planetwide, on a 30-year timeline. Reminds me of Asmov's novel, The Naked Sun, where the planet Solaria develops with 10,000 robots per human eventually.
Asmov, my favorite SF author, was a little ahead of his time, wasn't he. I have most of his books.
@@tedmoss totally agree. Up until about four years ago I had over 300 of his books and then along with about 2000 other books of mine and I decided to downsize. Made a lot of buyers on eBay happy I guess.
Great video!
The tging is that it's enough to have a few hundred thousand bots able to learn.....they would be though how to build robots FIRST!
I was there in the late nineties and earlt 2000. This sounds like the internet hype. Amazing how history repeats itself
Let's start by getting FSD to work
Bots more important and valuable than FSD
@@BongoWongoOG will take anything that adds value right now
@@BongoWongoOGThe bot is just the new "FSD" meant to distract from FSDs massive shortcomings.
Let's do both, as they are.
it would be cool may be living in an iRobot city-scape! 🍀
I been hearing that Elon wants more shares of Tesla. Is it because of concerns about AI? He wants have more control and say over the android development and deployment. Can you speak on his concerns as well and how it will effect Tesla in the future.
Tesla stock has so much potential
If there are usable robots by 2025, then they'd need to build 186,500 robots a day until 2040 to get to a billion...
Do big numbers scare you? There are around 80 million cars made in the world each year now. So that's a billion in around twelve years. Robots are smaller and easier to build than cars. They will also add more value per unit than cars. It's a big crazy world.
Some guys out there need your optimism Dave!
Thanks for these 2 cents. It is (always) pure pleasure to get your feedback and reasoning.
Need a massive, standard use case - shelf stacking, stock picking, Amazon deliveries.
Something 24/7/365, tedious, offensive, dangerous.
Totally agree dual class Tesla share structure - is it feasible? What are the options?
didn't google switch to dual-class voting shares way after their IPO?
Nice video again Dave , however the most cost effective use of the initial humanoid robots , is not as a home appliance . Theyd be best for general purpose flexible work application.
They will be rented and time-shared because the rapidly evolving tech precludes outright purchase. Individual ownership will be relegated to used refurbished and second tier models.
R2d2 demonstrates that a humanoid form is not prerequisite for appeal or functionality. For most tasks , humanoid shape will be an important yet transient requirement , but,
Cars and trucks , for example ,just wont have an independent driver, and robo constructed housing will not be designed for human workmen. Youd build an optimized robo-roofer , robo-plumber , and so forth.
R2-D2 is very cool, but virtually useless for any real world applications.
Humanoid robots are designed to use the equipment of our civilisation.
I don't agree with this. Both the factory and worker bots use cases, and the home use cases are huge markets. You don't think someone will go after the home market? The first to do so will have the potential to become a market leader with app sales and data driven learning improvements generating a software margins flywheel. There is nothing wrong with becoming a 'work as a service' robot supplier, but that leaves a huge market open.
I'd be interested to know the power consumption and how reliable they are. I think it will be many years before they replace people.
Does that reassure you? Beware believing what you want to believe, it often masks more probable outcomes.
Humanoid robots need to be water proof and dust proof if they were to work outside of clean factory environments!
It will happen.
But A.I. will be limited by its _senses._ Vision is great, but not when it comes to cooking. That requires _tasting._
Likewise smelling aromas, feeling the texture of fabrics, the freshness of vegetables, or the blending of colors/shades/hues.
And what may be unpleasant to one person may be okay to another at another time. (Simple sushi is a complex example.)
Great timing on this video, thank you! Seems like people are getting uneasy right now about TSLA. You nailed it and reinforced confidence in a long-term investment strategy in Tesla!
More uneasy with Elon. I spend an hour a day (probably) telling people that Elon does NOT = TESLA…
Great video. Thinking about those rough goals I wonder when Tesla will start production and when the first robot will reach some non Tesla end customer. Since ramping up production still will need some time it shouldn’t be too far off.
I could imagine the board might create a new incentive program for Elon that defines ludicrous goals in the robot realm. That would both encourage Elon and show investors how serious Tesla approaches the robot business. This could lead to an earlier addition in valuation models for some analysts leading to a more realistic stock value estimate. By that the stock valuation gets a boost with minimal effort, which I think would be a smart move.
Dave!
Bots will only be capable of household chores/ replacing building workers/ office secretaries when they can peel an orange.
Moving objects about is simple, repetitive factory assembly work is simple.
Peeling an orange is messy and unpredictable.
Like most tasks - cleaning up after cooking, tidying up a building site.
Somebody is hallucinating
With a world population over 7 billion thousands are tripping on mushrooms at any given moment.
Take a shot every time a Tesla RUclipsr says "Order of magnitude" or "First principles".
Principles
@@darylfoster7944 true
These are some big IFs
AI will bring great power. Predicting outcomes is surprisingly hard beyond the point of AGI and on to super intelligence.
The worry is people hacking humanoid robots for weapons of mass destruction
I'm calling it now, battery life and speed will be disappointing on Gen 1.
Energy source for robots will have a big role in how many robots exist. I currently live in rural Zambia and even though there are lots of cars I have yet to see an electric car. I.E. Without infrastructure to support robots that rely on batteries, it will be very hard to reach the 1 robot per 10 people scale.
Finish FSD first
Why?
LFG!!!!!
I believe the best way for Elon to get the 25% is a stock buyback. It seems overdue to me
Dave you speak so much wisdom beyond your age. Elon has grown into his own and has shown us that he can improve mankind by creating machines that can comfort humans and computers that can solve problems. We are so lucky to have Elon as he comes up with even more new ideas that humans can benefit from. What an exciting time to be alive. Maybe we will have that life of the "Jetson's".
Who knew that Star Wars would be our future, not a long time ago….and not in a galaxy 🌌 far away….The Clone Wars ✨
Cant wait to hear about the first person to have an Optumus Slim polish their pole.
Opticum.
My Rumba is working as I listen
I think the past two years, Elon and tesla have been thinking about who could run the company after Musk - and came to the conclusion that no one could replace Musk. Musk is the only person fit to run Tesla. Such an important role in our future.
I'll believe it when I see the first one working properly.
Think we are getting close to bicentennial man type robot?
Tesla stock price 2050 …. 50,000$ 🥳
Will bots go from industry to homes or the other way round.
they have been used in industry for years...the integration of machines tied in with chat bots is what im assuming your referring to which both are in constant development, usually the most advanced tech starts with military application first and consumer last
Considerando que lleguemos al 2040
Good to see you again, Dave. If Elon can have a robot that can thread a needle, how likely could a robot with that kind of skill be able to assemble a phone? It seems most phone makers must employ many people to assemble these phones; mostly with underpaid labor.
Dave, you still didn't comment on Elons statement about potential depart from tesla, your opinion is much appreciated
I'll buy one.
Dave, I appreciate the approach of the channel. It is worthwhile to push innovation and a desire for innovation. But let's be honest... several companies like TESLA are long on promises and painfully short on action and proof. Tesla did a great job of making an EV, but the rest of the promises are late and weak. At this point, are we pumping a share price more than we are brainstorming innovation? I think we are.
I don't care if they are late by months or years. They are executing like no other company in history.
Honestly, as a longtime tech investor, I truly feel that has been total BS for at least the last 3 years. FSD, the bots and a few other things have been the same promise with little realization of those promises during that time. @@kennyg1358
I totally disagree. They are promising like no other tech company in history. They are executing like a skilled EV company. The share price credits both too much at this point. @@kennyg1358
teslabot's head needs to be a detachable drone so can work independently of the body also and get an overview/different perspectives, go ahead, fit into tight spaces etc when need arises
More likely, they will have a wireless connection to a drone for an aerial perspective.
@@Glathgrundel best part is no part, detachable hover head FTW!!!
I can't even get my robot vacuum from getting stuck every other day. Robot expectations are real high, but they're no where near to meeting expectations.
None of this has anything to do with Tesla or the video in general.
Your vacuum robot is not AI, it is dumb preprogrammed robot. If AI is ready then learning will be exponential.
7 likes for this sad joke?
Have you thought about the scale needed for this? There will be quite big factories needed (you said there won’t), and the maintenance of humanoid robots will be significant, and close to where they are working, all over the world. Something that moves a lot inevitably needs periodic maintenance. There’ll need to be a large infrastructure of mobile teams, similar to electrician call-outs to homes (which occurred just today at our home for an air con). This kind of infrastructure with complex tech takes time, in parallel with each tech development. Tesla hasn’t been great with maintenance infrastructure so far either.
Won't the robots repair each other?
@@darylfoster7944 Eventually. How many robots does it take to change a light bulb?
I’m envisaging a comedy skit in which a humanoid robot is driven out to a home in a robotaxi to fix another robot, and breaks down itself while doing it, so sends for a third and then…
Meanwhile, there’s an elderly person, impaired, waiting for their robot carer to be fixed, and can’t get Tesla customer service to respond to messages or calls. In practice, these things won’t be as easy and Dave implies.
Unlike smart phones and evs humanoid robots can build other humanoid robots
Where are they going tho?
Robots are expensive. Not sure what the sweet spot would be .. but it would probably need to be the price of a car in order for this transition to be economical
There are always limits to growth.
Not if time is infinite.
They made a movie about it🤣
It took almost a century to build one billion vehicles by 2010. It took Tesla two decades to build five million vehicles.
Love Bots 🤖 ❤
Humanoid robots will learn how to build and repair more humanoid robots
What I want to know is "not what the robot can or will do" But what will people do when robots can do everything we can do better. That is what Elon has to explain to us and the pro robot market. When the sewing machine came out the factories were ransacked and it took another 20 years for sewing machines to make their comeback. I believe this is inevitable but some thought has to go into what role humans will play in the workforce? If we don't have jobs we can't buy the things robots make. I think this is the million-dollar question.
Tesla has hyped FSD for years now and it's still unclear how financially it'll benefit from the time and effort put into it. There's no clarity into how many subscriptions are even paying for it. While the technology keeps getting better, it still seems like the business model for capitalizing on it needs figured out.
I think the Optimus robots will be more straight forward once they can be produced at scale for lower cost - substitute for human labor that has defined value already. Timeframe for this occuring is only speculation at this point.
Great talk Dave! I am all for 10x market cap and pay Elon 1% for each 1x to get him to 25% in 5 or 8 tranches.
humanoid robot cannot bath a person, or shower a person because of the electrics. But it can clean with a damp cloth. Otherwise good info
Dave, what do you think about Elon wanting 25% of Tesla. He can have 25% as long as he's growing the company. But I would like to know your thoughts on it.
He's only saying he wants 25% voting power, not 25% of the share value.
@@deucetruce0You're correct, stupid news outlets
Intelligent bots need to be able to upload learned tasks and download 'experience' or skill sets from a mother ship -- just like downloading the ability to fly a helicopter in The Matrix. Standard skill sets for a factory with finite number of production stations could be loaded into all bots working there... similar for a different factory, home, hospital, etc.
That’s what’s already happening.
Good to see you again, Dave.
I hope you’re doing well.
Using them as a tele-present avatar, using a remote VR interface, to ‘possess’ the bot (temporarily) for business meetings or to visit friends and family, would be both creepy and wonderful
That would be useful for dangerous or specialized task. Imagine a surgeon being able to remote into several surgical units in a day vs only being at one hospital.
Dave no AI is smarter than any human. They maybe more capable at performing tasks but being smart IMHO mean you deciding what tasks you wish to accomplish and how to accomplish them
Musk and Optimus is like jobs and iPhone.
At least 20 years
Rosie was the name of the Jetson's maid (voiced by Jean Vander Pyl).
I’m suing you for copyright infringement.
ART AND MOVIES WILLL CHANGE!!!
Customer service will Improve I HOPE!!!
I see many good application for humanoid robots on earth, but having them 'converse' with elderly people to give them 'company' so they don't feel lonely, I can't believe that. Having a dead, feeling-less, lifeless robot for 'company' may well provide much intellectual and some emotional entertainment and distraction but it couldn't provide the feeling of companionship that can only come by interacting with living sentient beings. Other than that limitation humanoid robots will be immensely useful and valuable. I'm looking forward to the day they are as common or accessible in the lives of ordinary people as are cars, washing machines, microwave ovens, desktop computers, laptops, notebooks and smart phones.
2 main advances will open the personal robot market. First, a face screen which makes them able to bring a real human friend into the home to visit. Second, the physical integration or fusion of man and machine.
Using them as a tele-present avatar, using a remote VR interface, to ‘possess’ the bot (temporarily) for business meetings or to visit friends and family, would be both creepy and wonderful.
@@Glathgrundel Yep, and it's *totally* going to happen.