My $TSLA Price Targets (3, 5, 10 Year) | Brighter with Alexandra Merz
HTML-код
- Опубликовано: 10 июн 2024
- Correction: BEGINNER MISTAKE !!!!
When calculating my 3, 5 and 10 year targets a couple of weeks ago, revenue and profits correspond to my goals, but stock price was based on numbers pre-split.
So you got to adjust by dividing by 3!
So in 2033, the target is $3,667.
Sorry about that.
Alexandra Mertz @TESLABoomerMama reviews her $TSLA forecasts
❤️ Thank you to my RUclips Members! Your support means a lot!
❤️ Pls like, subscribe and comment. It's a simple way to support the channel.
🔹 Buying a Tesla? Use my referral link to purchase a Tesla product and get up to $1,000 off and other exclusive benefits.
ts.la/herbert23392
🔹 TESLA Accessories - very good quality materials: Get 5% off
jowua-life.com/herbertong
🔹 MagBak Wireless Charger : Get 15% off code: HERBERTONG15
tinyurl.com/4wrk4945
🔹 MagBak Wheel Protector (THIS IS AWESOME!) : Get 15% off code: HERBERTONG15
tinyurl.com/3mz8bhc4
Let's get brighter!
Follow me on Twitter: @herbertong
❤️ PLS CONSIDER SUPPORTING THE CHANNEL?
🔹 Become a RUclips Channel Member: / @brighterwithherbert
Member-only perk: Most Important Graphs and Tables for EV and Tesla
🔹 MagBak Wireless Charger : Get 15% off use code: HERBERTONG15
tinyurl.com/4wrk4945
🔹 MagBak Wheel Protector (THIS IS AWESOME!) : Get 15% off use code: HERBERTONG15
tinyurl.com/3mz8bhc4
🔹Reserve a CyberLandr: cyberlandr.com/order?affid=br...
Tech First Camper for CyberTruck
🔹Open a brokerage account at Interactive Brokers: ibkr.com/referral/herbert377
Disclaimer: All content on this channel is for discussion and illustrative purposes only and should not be construed as professional financial advice or recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All views expressed are personal opinion as of date of recording and are subject to change without responsibility to update views. No guarantee is given regarding the accuracy of information on this channel. Neither host or guests can be held responsible for any direct or incidental loss incurred by applying any of the information offered. Author is long TSLA and other stocks at time of original video publish date. 
Наука
Thanks for having me, Herbert, loved this discussion ❤
Throughout this video you're miscalculating the multiples and EPS.
You're just saying 'profit will be $100B, so a multiple of 30 gives a stock price of $3T and $3000'
You're forgetting to divide the profit by 3.1 to get EPS. You then multiply EPS by 30 to get a stock price of $1000 = $3T valuation.
You need to divide all your projections by 3.1.
thanks for your thoughts. No big down $50 per share on $300 share or up guess. TSLA will be big... but last year we thought if we were here with the present news we would be WELL over $350-400. What ??? It is guessing or analytics??
I Ubered someone from GigaTexss. 34:20 & cars were coming out about every 5minutes... I should've taken a video...😅
@@hal8683it's how much People Sell their shares from their Options or lower Bought Prices..
@@hal8683 Macro
Thanks to Alexandria for her great analysis and to Herbert for presenting her
This woman is already wealthy and talks crap.Just a spoiled brat.
The calculations are wrong. A 3.5 trillion market cap is around $1,100 stock price.
I miss the number of outstanding shares.
Net profit / Oustanding shares = EPS
EPS x PE = Stock price
Well done, you spotted it. She just adjusted her target, divide by 3.
2 of my favorite Tesla pundits around. Thanks Alexandra and Herbert for an uplifting and educational discussion!
Wow !!
Awesome analysis , Herbert and Alexandria!
I love your 3,5,10 projections!!
Thank you for your
Conviction 🙏
Sorry, so much wrong math...
Alexandra forgot the 3:1 split. There are 3b shares outstanding.
Besides, 3x cars does not result in 3x revenue, as asp is much lower
Do you understand that a split has nothing to do with the model she has presented?
@@ramses4321 do you understand the significance of the number of outstanding shares, when calculating the share price based on the market cap?
@@benrabstar "40X from here", meaning 40 X $275ish = $11,000 price target, based on $6T in sales. She's actually calculating the share price based on sales and/or profit plus a hypothetical acceptable multiplier.
No she's made a mistake, she's admitted it on twitter, she said here a 3.5 trillion market cap is a 10x, we are over 800 billion just now....
I did, and apologies. I posted this today on X.
Great content. Added FSD to the X last night. Wow. Keep up the amazing work!!
thank you both so much !!
What an excellent analysis by Alexandra. Thank you.
Excellent analysis both of u.. thanks..
Bravo Herbert and Alexandra!
I appreciate Alexandrias measured analysis.
We all love Tsla momma
Superb guyls! 🙌
Awesome video. Thank you 🙏
13:05 - “We’re putting them out like hot breads !!!” 🔥🔥🔥
HERBERT!! Alexandra is "the bomb"!! Truly an amazing lady!! Greetings from Canada!! GIDDYUP!!
Amazing. Thanks.
Thanks!
Aleaxandra, whatever you do don’t do what Gary does! His goal is AUM. As individuals his AUM goals are meaningless to us. Keep doing what you are doing. Don’t change anything. ❤
Thank you Alexandra and Herbert for this outstanding video. Loved these charts and forecasts as I'm all in on Tesla. I'll be saving this one to my favorites.
Merz is a clown
Thank you, Herbert and Alexandra! This video made my day. Amazing but believable scenarios !
You are the best 👍
Energy, bots, AI/Dojo etc... will dwarf motor profits. I'm all in on $TSLA and look forward to making my teslanaire status in a couple of years. I'm not greedy but I am looking forward to it 🚀🚀🚀
3.5T valuation at ~3.5M shares outstanding = ~$1,000 share price at 2028? Not $3500? Am I calculating something wrong. Love the vid!
Yes. Market cap used to be close to share price prior to last years split. $3,500/3
same conclusion here - $1,000 based on MC 3.5T and current shares outstanding. Surprised Herbert didn't pick up Alexandra on this!
3,5b... But yes
well done
Thanks from Finland
Thank you! Really appreciated the motivation to HODL!
did you?
My two faves. 🥰
I want to believe 🛸 great video! Thanks for sharing
Great discussion Alexandra is lovely. Thank you very much!!! Greetings 🙋🏻♂️😁
Yes! Alexandra is brilliant and lovely. I so enjoy her pleasant demeanor.
Alexandra is a legend 😊
LOL, comes with the boomer status
Agree 100%, she is truly amazing.
Hello fellow TSBOD members!
Thanks
Thank you both for this great wisdom and knowledge you shared with us. What I don’t understand is why the market doesn’t see it and the government doesn’t understand how good this is for humanity??? Why? Wake up people!
Great video hope this price prediction comes true and I will be a millionaire in 10 years with my 500 shares 🎉🎉
Alexandra is a bad ass. Nice interview Herbert.
Putting well-earned money into the stock market can't be over emphasised for first-time investors, unlike a bank where interest is sure thing! Well, basically times are uncertain, the market is out of control, and banks are gradually failing. I am working on a ballpark estimate of $5M for retirement, and I have a good 6-figure loaded up for this, could there be any opportunity for a boomer like me? I'm nearly 60.
It's best to seek an advisor right now, unless you're canny yourself. As a business owner in both the service industry and eBay reseller of all product categories, I can tell you we’re in a deep recession and everyone is running out of money.
Very true, people downplay advisors role, until burnt by their mistakes. I remember just after my layoff early 2020 amidst covid outbreak, I needed to stay afloat, hence researched for license advisors. Thankfully, I came across someone of practical knowledge, and decades of experience, my stagnant reserve of $325K has yielded nearly $1m after subsequent investments so far.
That's fascinating. How can I contact your Asset-coach as my portfolio is dwindling?
Salvatore Fortunato Sofia is the Consultant that oversees my portfolio. She's been able to gain some reputation and online recognition with over 3 decades in service, so it shouldn't be a hassle to find basic info.
This projections gonna catch on 🙂❤👍
I love how she called CNBC CNBS!
Yeah. Next we'll hear Moron Stanley, Government Motors, Doomberg and more of the SMR vocabulair. After that, we get a ten minute ad about AG1. Mark Ryan my words.
@@hardyvonwinterstein5445 Well said 👏👏👏Sometimes I wonder if Tesla is a youtube opportunity for AG1 pushers 🤣🤣🤣There are a lot of them at it.
@@JohnLovesSpainThere sure are. AG1 must pay very well.
Love Teslaboomermama. The world stops at 2030. LOL.
Love her numbers.
Book smart but dumb
Love it
Love my Tesla stock but I am too old to go "all in" in my portfolio. I have however, gone 1/2 in to 50% + growth in Tesla. Way beyond what the conservative investor consultants my brokerage advisor at Fidelity is comfortable with. I told him to relax as it wasn't his money and I was willing to accept this investment risk as I am hoping to build generational wealth and that cannot be done being as conservative as I have
Good for you for thinking on your own and not just having someone else think.
Very optimistic.
Alexandra’s thoughts on future splits would be ver interesting: we know Elon has said in the past…”the stock price is getting too high”….(1) small retailers can’t afford to buy (2) employee share bonuses can be increase with splits.
Good discussion but I’m still skeptical of the growth, particularly with regards to FSD. I really hope I’m wrong too. 😂
As a robot electronics designer - I see Optimus as the ultimate money-earner. Fast to manufacture - way faster than cars, and once Optimuses ( or is it Optimi ?) start making more Optimi, 24-7, they could make 10-100 million a year, and sell software (like games consoles) for specific tasks. TAM is virtually infinite...
Energy is understated imho. Solar & especially Electricity storage will be as commonplace in homes as water heaters. Electricity delivery will we decoupled from the grid.
Is the fSD / robotaxi including other OEM using FSD or just tesla cars ?
First of all: I love this channel, very deep and enthusiastic talks. I am a private investor myself since my first MS in 2017. But: if things go so well for TSLA, did you consider, what will happen to the other economies? They will have to support their own industries (coming from Autoland Germany). They will us as citizens drag in to help out with taxes. So I will earn a lot on the one hand as an investor, but my tax burden on the other hand will increase massively, because our economy will definately decrease more than we expect today..Thanks again, keep up the good work. Und schöne Grüße an Alexandra 😊
CNBS. 😂
Looks like SMR is influencing others too.
9:45 Re: Energy Significance. When does it 2x cars? I get the chart, but however speculative, those timelines for bots & FSD are probably accurate.
Please Herbert read the comments below challenging the accuracy of Alexandra's price targets and then update this video as necessary
Herbert, it would be so useful to have all your prognosticators to come back in 3, 5 and 10 years and revisit these projections. I have a feeling that things will be so different ( positive or negative). I am just thinking about 2013 when I first bought a Tesla, there was no talk of FSD really, definitely no bots. I remember the Tesla salesman selling the Model S as completely upgradable in that the car would last forever. Of course 6 months into 2014 all the S's before that were obsolete because they did not have the camera suite. Then HW2 became obsolete and now HW3 is obsolete. Musk is indeed the boy who cried FSD ( way to early) and lost credibility in the process. I think there is value in looking at these positive scenarios but we should also look at the opposite end. One scenario that we must concede is that FSD never gets solved or Waymo and Cruise model succeeds and Tesla is not the leader in that space. In that scenario the current price will be challenged by massive multiple contraction. Again, not trying to rain on your parade but it helps to look at the other side. I have 40% of my portfolio in Tesla so I don't want to be blind to the downside risk.
He also said you could take a starship from farthest points of the world in 45 minutes and that would be available way sooner than it actually will be. Does this mean Starship won’t happen? I follow what other companies are doing and they are no where close to FSD when it comes to cost and scalability. I listen to Cyberbulls but I notice people that make videos on Tesla everyday get a very strong bias towards Tesla but not without good reason even tho I think they take it over the top at times.
@andreavenaa they have an inventive to be very positive as it attracts views , then ads, then sponsorships and money. It pays and it is easy to make people dreams of future fortune. There is no downside on being wrong, as it is just "fun talks"
@@andreavenaa Tesla is a transformative company, no doubt. But giving credit where it is due does not preclude looking at potential pitfalls. FSD in particular is a very murky area. We have no idea how close they are to solving the issue. It makes many mistakes. Today for me it braked and stopped for a stop light that was 100 yards away and then at a 4 way stop it did not stop till well into the intersection. Does not inspire confidence in Musk's statement that it will be ready by the end of the year. And it such a big part of the future model. My point is that while it is very possible that by 2026 it could be obvious that the technology has arrived ( and the stock will indeed reach the stratosphere), it is also possible that it does not. In that case multiples will collapse and in that scenario it would be useful to understand how much revenue increase will be required to offset the multiple contraction.
Enjoying the information.
My understanding is that Tesla has been evaluated as a single company with current product lines and announced plans extended into the selected timeframes.
I believe that the scope should also take a look at the interactions between all the Elon Musk companies and their effect on our world.
Starlink has a massive lead in communications and i am sure SpaceX is taking massive advantage of FSD related processing to assist in their efforts.
The equivalent of AI supercomputers going forward with multiple generations of Dojo processors and manipulation toolsets will also be a big game changer 🤗
How many people, do you think, are going to sell their shares of Tesla to pay their Cybertruck in full - or as much down as they can? Does that matter if the sales of each truck are not all at once?
Please post a link to the animated chart.
Hi Herbet, all her calculations are incorrect because she calculates according to 1 billion shares and there are 3 plus billion shares, so her entire price target should be divided by three
Off topic, but, will an emp knock out Tesla vehicles, bots, powerwalls, solar roofs, etc.? That would create a lot of repeat sales, but, maybe sink some insurance companies.
Energy is growing by 150 to 200 % per year!
Good talk, but dont we have 3-4 billion outstanding shares by now meaning 3 trillion in profits by 2030 would result in a share price of just 1000 dollars if the multiplier would be 1. Off course it will not be 1 and 3 trillion is very bullish but lets say 1 trillion profits and p/e of 10 would result in a share price of around 3000 dollars. Still pretty decent!
Funny to hear Alexandria call it CNBS un-ironically 😂
I don't believe it beyond cars and energy, but I'll take it.
Sandy Munro has big questions about the efficacy of FSD and the need to supplement the cameras with forward looking infrared with the inability for FSD to be effective in a blizzard, smoke, and fog. I myself have pulled off the highway because of a terrible loss of visibility.
I tend to disagree with the Tesla certainty that FSD cameras will be effective when visibility is very impaired. Why won’t Tesla at least Checkout whether infrared will enhance the the effectiveness of this technology?
Excellent video. One think that's not measurable is retail market sentiment. I think the stock price is 2028-30 is going to be way more insane than these numbers.
Alexandra, i love your projections.❤
I believe there is one additional source of Tesla revenue.
And that is FSD licensing from all remaining legacy automotive companies.
Yes, I included that in my SaaS analysis. At one point I say it in this video.
@@TESLABoomerMama 💕
She is a clown
Energy tripling revenue from 2026 to 2028? That's ambitious ... especially as there might well be a global battery supply shortage around that time.
♥♥♥ *Thank you Alexandra for sharing that amazing animated chart!* Regardless of the actual numbers, the big picture is quite stunning.
👍👍 Tesla Boomer Mama
Did Alexander calculate profit using gross margin estimates? Should be based on operating margin.
That is about $909.00/share with an earnings multiple of 20 that is about $18,000.00/share!! Go TESLA!!!
The e vertical take off is designed
Just a guess
I agree with the idea that FSD and Optimus revenue will eventually dwarf vehicle revenue (and the visualization by the twitter guy was a good way of putting that into context). However, the timeline is the difficult part and the timeline in that visualization (as well as the vehicle sales) was clearly overly optimistic in a big way (that's an understatement!). There is a difference between FSD and Robotaxi (obviously). When FSD finally comes out of beta the FSD revenue should start to increase, but it's going to take some time before Robotaxi works and scales to different states within the US and then to different regions globally (I think this will take years). My expectation is that FSD revenue will start to significantly increase in 2025/26 and it will be another couple of years after that before we see robotaxi starting to make a significant contribution (say 2027/28). And then it will take another couple of years maybe before Robotaxi takes off in a big way (2029/30).
The same goes for Optimus. Even when Optimus reaches a level where it is useful, it will take time to scale up production (talking about a 2 to 3 years timescale for building factories and ramping up). My expectation is that maybe Optimus will be starting to get useful in 2 to 3 years (so 2026 maybe) and then it will be 2029 before factories are ramped up and producing them in significant numbers. Which is coincidentally around about the time that I expect Robotaxi to be taking off too!
That's why a 10 year time horizon is the right kind of timeframe to think about Tesla. Which is why I think Alexandra's top level figures in 2033 might well be achievable!
Good take! Just note that scaling Optimus will be fast. The hardware in Optimus is way simpler than in a car and easier to assemble.
@@FullyFledged I totally agree! I think Optimus will scale much more quickly than cars. In addition to how fast production can be scaled, I think the limiting factors will be things such as: 1. Ability to train Optimus for various tasks - how easily can someone who purchases Optimus train it for the intended task and how much input does this require from Tesla 2. The number and type of tasks that Optimus can perform - what can Optimus do and how valuable is that to someone purchasing it - this will define the TAM and therefore the demand for more bots - and should broaden over time as Optimus learns to do more complex tasks 3. Logistics for distribution - when scale gets larger this will require more thought and input from Tesla - for example, if you are producing 100 million or more per year then the logistics for distribution will be significant for something the size and weight of Optimus!
I think we will see a relatively slow roll-out in the first couple of years maybe and then the rate will increase dramatically in subsequent years (much more quickly than scaling production for cars).
Timestamps for the price targets?
Where can I find the Excel??? Cannot find it on X
What about the Tony Seba prediction that FSD will lead to a massive (90%) reduction in car ownership? According to Seba transport as a service will undermine car demand.
What struck me was that Alexandra's projections arrived at 2033 as a kind of end game for Tesla, referring to the EPS of between 3 and 4. If at that time people are still looking ahead to newer and better times, then the stock price would be multiples of Alexandra's numbers again.
She has no idea what she is talking about has a lot of money and talks like she is an expert and many times tried to tell Musk how to run his business because the stock dropped she was not happy.Wealthy and wants more
Imagine what products & services will be available in 2030. None of which are in any model/projected valuation.😮
👍👍👍
what about dojo?
$3.5T market cap doesn’t equate to $3.500 per share. It’s more like $1,100 per share. At 22 minutes in the video ??
for the 10 years: is she keeping asp at $50k? if they are selling 20m cars, most of them will be the compact model so the asp should be a bit lower. FSD at 200%, that is counting $100k revenue per car (a bit less since some of the revenue comes from other OEMs, but that's too high) over the lifetime.
I have a hard time believing in a 40 x 😂 We shall see b
thanks for your thoughts. No big?? stock is down $50 per share ... the hope was $300 per share or more... was just an up guess. TSLA will be big... but last year we thought if we were here today with the present news we would be WELL over $350-400. What ??? is this guessing or analytics??
OMG thank you so much for doing this for the TESLA COMMUNITY Alexandra and thanks Herbert for sharing this on your channel. My long term time horizon from 2014 was always 2030. Back then there were no bots, no energy and no model 3 or Y. Look at all that we have to enjoy today including Semi and Cybertruck. I remind others of these facts because I believe MORE IS COMING FROM TESLA that we have not thought of including a van. We also have the compact car to look forward to.
CLEARLY THE FUTRE IS BRIGHT with Tesla, and while that is my opinion and not financial advice, I am very glad I am still buying and still holding!!
Thanks Alexandra for your modest price projections and earnings forecast for this incredible company. It is beyond my wildest dreams. Let's Go Tesla!
CNBS. That’s the new name. 🤣🤣
Is tesla software able to integrate to other OEM's software for Fsd or autopilot seamlessly?
Time will tell
Model 2 $25k. Minus $7,500 is $17,500. Demand? Unlimited. This is not counting tax credits from states.
I don’t think you are crazy. I think you are extremely reasonable. We gonna make it!!!!
The 20 mil cars/yr is a bit of a stretch, but 5 mil is virtually a done deal by the time GigaMexico is ramped. No one really knows what the energy, FSD and other businesses will do, but I fall back on 2/1 sort of business model, figuring all the other businesses will equal half of the car business. So take an average car price of something like $30k once you get a $20k-something car and multiply by 5 million cars, and you get about $150 billion. Add in something like 50% more for all the other businesses and you get like $225 billion in revenues by maybe 2026. Margins should be about what they are now, roughly 18% gross, maybe 12% net. So it's reasonable to think that net income would be like $25 billion - $30 billion, or around $8 EPS. So the stock price should be a minimum of $400 and maybe as high as $600 per share. This is my estimate for 3 years from now. For 2030 I figure $1000/share and with share buybacks and revenue growth you could end up with a 10 - 15 year target of $2000 - $3000...maybe more. Who knows?
Does SaaS include DOJO income as well?
A broad brush yes
Wow! Very impressive projection! I can't find any fault with it except external factors like a slow economy.
All I’m gonna say, as a 71 year old, lifelong financial guy, and TSLA shareholder, and four-time Tesla owner - is that things NEVER work out the way you think they will. This is especially true when you start talking about ten years out.
@@thefish5861 4x Tesla owner!! Gee Wiz, what's that, a new one every year? I totally agree! But, I admire Musk's planning abilities. He seems to over-deliver rather than under-deliver. That's a good sign!
@@Betrue875 one for him, one for his wife and one each for 2 kids gets you there.
But the bots don’t appear from nowhere. For this quantity you also need to build dedicated factories and they need suppliers. I don’t think that they can scale this fast.
Never bet against Elon. He eats scale for breakfast.
I think maybe you underestimate the effect of rapid decline in the other brands.
The analysis on the Humanoid robots timeline is insane. Imagine how long it will take to gather all the data you need to train those Neuro Networks?? Cars gets so much more data and taken a looong time to perfect... Get real people!
How about the next 3 years? 😅
DOJO/AI and an unknown number of "secret" projects. Blue sky ahead.
4:02 "CNBS" 😂 Freudian slip Alexandra?, watching too much Stephen Mark Ryan or was it intentional?
Steve is the man to listen to not this clown
👍
The market cap of the S&P 500 is about $37T, which makes it hard to fathom that in 10 years that TSLA could be worth more than a quarter of the current S&P 500. It would mean investors massively pulling moved out of everything else.
Couple of years I couldn't get around the fact that Tesla was valued at much as the top 12 OEM combined.
So yeah, now I can see Tesla being first company to cap at 10T and then 100T.
PS currently hold nil in US stocks. Digesting residential properties but that takes 2-3 months; hope I don't miss the $160 party🎉