EXCLUSIVE: Wall Street Analyst Drops 5 Bombshells on TESLA [Nick Colas]
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- Опубликовано: 3 июн 2024
- Nicholas Colas is a 30+ year veteran of Wall Street with experience in equity research, money management and investment banking. Currently running DataTrek Research
Nick very uniquely has a background advising the auto industry.
Follow Nick on X: @DataTrekMB
Website: datatrekresearch.com
During the 90s, he was the senior equity auto analyst at First Boston (now Credit Suisse). He both led the equity deal that saved Chrysler in 1991 and led the first auto company in China to IPO. In 98 he helped the sale of Chrysler to Daimler.
Today he runs DataTrek Research which publishes a Morning Briefing newsletter, read by thousands of investment professionals around the world.
Nick is regularly on CNBC and Bloomberg and is widely quoted in the financial press.
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You are bringing some really incredible info and guests to us Herbert! Thank you and thank you Nicholas for speaking with the Tesla Retail Community here on this channel.
💯% agree - Herbert is as you say. So hard working.
Never fall in love with ANY stock is my advice.
@@davidpearn5925Good advice in general. Would it have been good advice to give Apple investors for most of Apples existence. As a long term investment it’s been a pretty good one.
One could equally say don’t fall in love with a flawed fellow human. But the odds of that working out well improve dramatically if you find one who is relatively stable, and is a good match for your personality.
My compliments to your interview style, because you allow the speakers to complete their sentences without any interruptions and you ask the questions that open up your guests to elaborating more thoroughly, and their subjects. I’m never disappointed with what you bring out of people who you have on. Keep up the great work
💯
It’s cute seeing Herbert so bedazzled by someone with actual industry experience. Nick has some great insights just remember no one has a crystal ball..
HERBERT,ALL I CAN SAY IS AWESOME INTERVIEW...GREAT WORK
Nick was a great guest.
This is a must watch show. I will follow up with Nick in the future
this guy knows his shit, awesome interview.
This guy who knows his shit compares Teslas valuation to Toyota without mentioning that Toyota has 220 billion in debt whereas tesla almost zero.
Tesla has debt my friend, maybe you should listen better, or read their financials better. They have about 23 billion in debt , and about 3 billion in free cash. Yeah Toyota has more debt because its delivering 10x more cars than tesla. I own TSLA stock btw just being realistic here, no hate@@diogenez471
Very interesting interview. Two points that weren't covered that would have been interesting to get Nick's input. Tesla's energy business and Optimus.
The issue I see is that most Tesla Bulls think FSK is a foregone conclusion --- when, in fact, it is not. It's something to think about.
This was THE BEST!!!!! Thank you Herbert~
Great interview with a superb guest. Thanks for the insights!
Great interview!!!
Wow!!! Amazing interview! One of the best of all times regarding the EV revolution and the future of auto industry imho.
Just about to watch this, been looking forward to it since you mentioned on CB’s
Thank you for this interview.
To postpone EV vehicles on the road for another 20 to 30 years is for UAW to be voted in at Tesla. Tesla employees should carefully weigh their decision to join the UAW. Many of them have a significant investment in their retirement savings tied to Tesla stocks. If the UAW were to successfully secure the votes to represent Tesla workers, this could provoke a strong reaction from Elon Musk (highest shareholder), potentially leading him to sell all of his shares and exit the company, which could result in a significant decline in the stock's value. Tesla is only a car company without DOJO, Solar, battery charging systems, semi trucks, and BOTs. Elon Musk will part ways and leave the car division to the shareholders.
Herbert, Nick, awesome discussion. Thanks!
To postpone EV vehicles on the road for another 20 to 30 years is for UAW to be voted in at Tesla. Tesla employees should carefully weigh their decision to join the UAW. Many of them have a significant investment in their retirement savings tied to Tesla stocks. If the UAW were to successfully secure the votes to represent Tesla workers, this could provoke a strong reaction from Elon Musk (highest shareholder), potentially leading him to sell all of his shares and exit the company, which could result in a significant decline in the stock's value. Tesla is only a car company without DOJO, Solar, battery charging systems, semi trucks, and BOTs. Elon Musk will part ways and leave the car division to the shareholders.
Another perspective Thank you Herbert
Thanks! Very valuable perspectives for TSLA long.
Thank you Marianne!!
good stuff, I cant wait to order a model 3 highland, I'm thinking about a model Y too
Great interview Herbert Ty
The CAFE commentary is so important and topical!❤
herbert 's face was like WTF when he said "u never buy a new low" cuz he was buying every dip on TSLA LOL
Wow, amazing knowledge, thanks.
This was great !!!! Thank u
Great Vid, love guests who have the knowledge to challenge your assumptions (and ours). A follow up vid in the future please
Indeed he challenge our assumptions, but comparing Toyota evaluation to tesla without considering the debt seems rather stupid. And then he claims tesla should raise 20 billion in capital 🙄 this would be detrimental to shareholders
Wow this guy have an impressive back ground .. like what he said about Tesla
Phenomenal interview, Herbert! Mr. Colas is one sharp dude. I found this video extremely beneficial, as a long term investor.
Great info. Thanks
Great show, very good info, thank you
Nicely Done! Great Interview 👏👏👏👏👏
To postpone EV vehicles on the road for another 20 to 30 years is for UAW to be voted in at Tesla. Tesla employees should carefully weigh their decision to join the UAW. Many of them have a significant investment in their retirement savings tied to Tesla stocks. If the UAW were to successfully secure the votes to represent Tesla workers, this could provoke a strong reaction from Elon Musk (highest shareholder), potentially leading him to sell all of his shares and exit the company, which could result in a significant decline in the stock's value. Tesla is only a car company without DOJO, Solar, battery charging systems, semi trucks, and BOTs. Elon Musk will part ways and leave the car division to the shareholders.
Am I the only one that noticed that “Nick Colas” almost sounds like “Nikola”?
I was fully absorbed by this interview, Herbert. Good job. My views conflict with Nick's in several areas. His long association with legacy auto is apparent in his view on various topics which miss some important points:
1. The transition to sustainable energy transportation represents a steep inflection point in the auto industry. There are so many aspects of the century-old legacy auto industry that have to be thrown out or replaced for a company to survive this transition. The more a company is invested in the old rule book, the harder it will be to reinvent itself. This includes Toyota.
2. Most brands will disappear along with the death of the companies they're associated with. There will be exceptions, of course, but many brands will lose value, reminding people of past intransigence, mediocrity, and failures. The notion that a brand can overcome a flawed product is wishful thinking, e.g., Mustang Mach E.
3. Tesla is more than just auto manufacturing and AV technology. They're also making big strides in energy storage, autonomous humanoid robots, lithium refining, EV charging infrastructure, insurance, and will at some point move into data services.
4. Tesla will continue to manufacture automobiles for many years. A robot taxi network has to be deployed at scale to gain public acceptance and profitability. FSD software is tightly integrated with the underlying hardware platform, necessitating strict design requirements on another automaker's vehicle. Since at least 2017, Tesla has been preparing for the deployment of TaaS (Transportation as a Service) in every vehicle they've produced. Tesla's $25,000 "Model 2" car will be the culmination of Elon's vision.
❤very well said, I also had the impression that Nick’s deep history with legacy auto is influencing his view on who are the survivors.
Hi, thanks for sharing your analysis! Curious if you could kindly elaborate on the data services you mentioned. Thanks a lot.
Just don’t talk in detail about the Highland mistake previewed with the S and X . The Brits understand.
6+ years of talk by Elon Musk without hard questions being entertained and leading to the elimination of the PR Department.
That’s when I ceased swallowing whole.
Good job Herbert !
Never heard anyone suggest Tesla needs to raise capital of $20B but Nicholas explained why that helps (& hardly hurts TSLA price). Interesting this is why Ford still remains family ownership.
Great interview, thanks.
This man has exposed more on the direction of Tesla after the Hobo Taxi is accepted. Tesla selling their factory and using Tesla software is amazing. Thank you for this valuable info.
this is really good content
Wow, fantastic interview
Herbert. your finest interview. Thanks. Just loaded with valuable info.
To postpone EV vehicles on the road for another 20 to 30 years is for UAW to be voted in at Tesla. Tesla employees should carefully weigh their decision to join the UAW. Many of them have a significant investment in their retirement savings tied to Tesla stocks. If the UAW were to successfully secure the votes to represent Tesla workers, this could provoke a strong reaction from Elon Musk (highest shareholder), potentially leading him to sell all of his shares and exit the company, which could result in a significant decline in the stock's value. Tesla is only a car company without DOJO, Solar, battery charging systems, semi trucks, and BOTs. Elon Musk will part ways and leave the car division to the shareholders.
Nick Colas...AMAZING INTERVIEW HERBERT!!
That is/was your most insightful n important interview/video. Thank you. It is 2 month old but still as valuable as when I came out and still will be in the future
What a cool guest! Really interesting chat.
Nice interview, great new bullish perspective shared, thanks
Brilliant! Great to see other thinkers on this huge ev change-over… different opinions all right!
Tesla is a company of engineers. Engineers want to create stuff, not just make money. I think Tesla will make vehicles, robots , you name it, after they cracked FSD too. Autonomous flying taxis, autonomous production facilities, configuring and optimizing themselves to what products they need to make, autonomous farm equipment, there is soo much.
You are describing Toyota - in the past century...
Excellent guest Herbert. Thanks to you and Nicholas. why are margins so much higher for software when manufacturing is so much harder? Not to say software development is easy, but manufacturing is so much more complex, shouldn't we value it more?
Logic about difficulty doesn't apply here. See=>BTC if "Difficulty" is something you fancy investing-in.
Software, like the auto industry is very difficult to get into so the competition that drives down prices doesn't exist.
The value of the product is higher than the purchase price ( otherwise we wouldn't buy it ) so the customer still receives value.
Development costs are super high but incremental product costs are extremely low so once a software firm has broken even, every incremental sale is nearly entirely gross profit.
Fascinating conversation. (Toyota?) Thanks Herbert!
Great and refreshing interview! Nick knows his stuff 👏👏
Splendid content!
HERBERT!! That video was nothing short of "FANTASTIC"!! A modern day TESLALARRY on steroids!! This friggin dude is amazing!! As A result I am going to join PATREON this minute!! Well deserved!! Hoping to serve on your panel in the future, to bring a Canadian perspective on what will become, the greatest EV conglomerate in the history of mankind!! Greetings from Canada!! GIDDYUP!!
10:35) "EVs are just a niche?" ABSOLUTELY! It's a pretty Frunkin' BIG "niche!"
Thanks!
Really really appreciate this naamon!!
A tremendous guest expert! I learned so much, thank you!!
To postpone EV vehicles on the road for another 20 to 30 years is for UAW to be voted in at Tesla. Tesla employees should carefully weigh their decision to join the UAW. Many of them have a significant investment in their retirement savings tied to Tesla stocks. If the UAW were to successfully secure the votes to represent Tesla workers, this could provoke a strong reaction from Elon Musk (highest shareholder), potentially leading him to sell all of his shares and exit the company, which could result in a significant decline in the stock's value. Tesla is only a car company without DOJO, Solar, battery charging systems, semi trucks, and BOTs. Elon Musk will part ways and leave the car division to the shareholders.
Thank you. I really appreciate such a well grounded assessment. Keep the healthy scepticism coming, it is really valuable for investors to see both sides.
Since the car manufacturing business requires high capital costs this means high fixed costs. In order to drive unit costs lower it is critical to keep increasing production which will reduce unit fixed costs!!
Tesla CFOs have been brilliant: on capital raising and on minimising of debt. Defer projects rather than raise external, 3rd party debt.
Very sound logic and it doesn't really create much dilution... they need to be in growth for a long time
Great show, own a lot of Tsla, but nice to hear other viewpoints, Didnt see Toyota coming, but lets see about that :)
I've loved Toyota ever since I had an MR2. Their stocks continue to rise and they give a divided.
Really high quality interview; Nick Colas knows his stuff for sure. What next, interview with Tasha Keeney AND Nick Colas? 😊
Wow, so good to hear Nick as a former/current traditional car analyst just speaking plainly about survivor car company-Tesla having its value in a large way determined by its survivor clarity.
It's quite unusual for me to spend a full hour listening to an analyst internview. But Nick Colas analysis is really sharp and full of wisdom.
Great interview and finally a definitive statement on the buy back, too many RUclipsrs failed to notice the decrease of cash flow from operation ..
This is such a refreshing and thoughtful guest to have on. When you get someone like Nick, who has such a broad based understanding of their profession and can articulate it in an understandable way. Your best interview ever 👍🏽I came away with a better idea of what the probable future might hold.
Greatest discussion ever 👏👏👏👍🇺🇸🇸🇰
I subscribed to your channel because of this excellent work.
This is one of your better interviews.
Holy crap. Great questions but I could listened to a few more hours. Have him back.
To postpone EV vehicles on the road for another 20 to 30 years is for UAW to be voted in at Tesla. Tesla employees should carefully weigh their decision to join the UAW. Many of them have a significant investment in their retirement savings tied to Tesla stocks. If the UAW were to successfully secure the votes to represent Tesla workers, this could provoke a strong reaction from Elon Musk (highest shareholder), potentially leading him to sell all of his shares and exit the company, which could result in a significant decline in the stock's value. Tesla is only a car company without DOJO, Solar, battery charging systems, semi trucks, and BOTs. Elon Musk will part ways and leave the car division to the shareholders.
great interview, Nick probably could spit knowledge for 10h
Thank you for bring someone who think outside of your usual guest. It's one of your greatest interview. There was a lot of new point of view to see EV industries.
I agree with you, and it is healthy for us TSLA bulls to go beyond repeating the gospel of our convictions and have external fresh perspectives
A bet on Toyota surviving is then like a "call option" because there is no evidence yet that they can or even have the motivation.
Think point was all they need is motivation. They have proven ability to achieve what they put their mind to.
@chewiewins agreed, but being good at ICE does not translate easily to chips, software and EV supply chain and mfg. Then there are dealerships. They may reverse engineer a Tesla but they are going to take a very long time to get rolling.
Amazing interview Herbert!! Thank you 👌🏽🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼🙋🏻♂️
It needs to be MUCH harder to get a drivers license in america. At this point it only serves as a source of revenue. There are WAY too many people on the road that should not be.
Tell that to illegals with NO license or a fake one.
One of your best episodes ever, Herbert! Eye opening! Keep up that awesome work!
Nick is smarter than the entire sell side
Thank you Herbert for a very informative and thought-provoking interview.
There are a lot of points I don't agree.
E.g. the market (stock exchange) could be wrong with Toyota.
Also there are point I agree (family owned companies where even Toyota is one).
Most important, there were points I never really thought about. Thats was most important and made it a very valuable interview.
1st person to ever say, don't discount Toyota yet. And it changed my view of them as dead for sure.
AGREED !!!
He didn't actually say the market was right.
Could you do an updated Altman-Z score of all the auto manufacturers?
Great interview with Nicolas Colas. Crystal clear.
I don’t like long videos - especially not with clickbait titles - but the message here is really worth listening to.
outstanding!
He left out energy storage, dojo, optimus, AI used in optimus, charging station dominance, what else?
Absolutely I don't get how people celebrate this guy who claims tesla is just a car company, compares it to the valuation of Toyota without mentioning the 220 billion in debt of Toyota and then he just claims tesla should raise 20 billion in capital...I guess he shorted the stock, cannot held us for so stupid.
Biggest lesson i learnt in 2022 in the TESLA stock market is that nobody knows what is going to happen next, so practice some humility and follow a strategy with a long term edge.
Nobody knows anything; You need to create your own process, manage risk, and stick to the plan, through thick or thin, While also continuously learning from mistakes and improving.
Uncertainty... it took me 5 years to stop trying to predict what bout to happen in market based on charts studying, cause you never know. not having a mentor cost me 5 years of pain I learn to go we’re the market is wanting to go and keep it simple with discipline.
@@TomD226 I think this is something I should do, but I've been stalling for a long time now. I don't really know which firm to work with; I feel they are all the same.
My advisor is Camille Alicia Garcia, a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
I use FSD beta all the time. Yes, it occasionally it messes up, however when it works properly it takes some much stress out of driving and catches many things that a driver does not catch. Even in this state it is well worth the price I paid for it.
I, too, use FSD on every drive. I've learned where it works well, and where it tends to fail. It's a collaborative system that works for me. It makes me a safer driver. I will no longer settle for a car without FSD capability.
Protects driver and passengers and pedestrians. Seen so many video of Tesla avoiding things drivers can't even spot in time
Until someone explains why Tesla sometimes makes a hard turn to ram an emergency vehicle--and they've made no comments--FSD will never be legal. That's just a start.
@@lyfandeth share a link to this please
@@lyfandeth FSD makes mistakes, that's not a point of disagreement, but what you describe has never happened to me in 3 years of using FSD. Convince me it happened to you or someone else.
An analyst with a brain and integrity , how amazing!
Amazing guy, no flaws in reasoning. Just wow.
Everyone always forget about the rest of the world outside of the US, Europe, and China.
The Chinese are already going global. There are several Chinese companies sell ICE and EV cars in Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Guatamala and I think, the rest of Central America (most of my Uber drivers were driving BYD or other Chinese made ICE cars). I haven’t visited South America or Africa lately so I don’t know if the Chinese cars companies are selling in South America or Africa. Then there is also the rest of Asia, India and the Middle East.
Even if the Chinese are impeded from entering the US and Europe through protectionist high import tariffs, they still can be a dominant global presence with the rest of the emerging global markets.
The world is bigger the USA, Europe, and China!
Great interview with profound thoughts，thank you Herbert and thanks Nick.❤
Tesla couldn’t be a software company without being a manufacturer because of the products they are developing. FSD cars, Optimus AI, Energy Auto bidder, Manufacturing AI. All go hand in hand to develop.
Really, Open AI is exactly that, they have no manufacturing. Microsoft and Google too.
and that other product "solar power and battery storage", there is that revenue going to the bottom line.
Exactly what, a software company? @@richb2229
Similar situation to Apple. Apple makes their own software but it runs on their own hardware. Luckily both of them make great hardware so it won't bottleneck software sales. Especially when you consider the possibility of Tesla software on non-Tesla hardware in the future.
Amazon make most of their money from software too.
Why would you give up a core competency instead of expanding your core competencies and your TAM.
The idea is old world thinking, the new world expands in all directions and uses knowledge of one product/service to improve and develop another.
GM started with a low cost car that is doing fairly good but the higher end units are not .... soooooo starting with low cost may be best.
Nick Colas is brilliant. His capacity to access cognitive constellations is unique.
Interesting that the CAFe of the 70’s resulted in the US growing demand for beefy trucks and SUVs.
Great analysis … confirms a lot of the Tesla bulls views….
Tesla bulls on RUclips are a dime a dozen, and everyone and their uncle predict daily that TSLA will go to the moon. The difference with Nick is that his underlying belief in TSLA appears bullish, yet he is also very pragmatic, and appears to understand the auto industry better, or at least as well as anyone. This was perhaps the most valuable perspective on Tesla and the auto industry that exists on RUclips, and should be viewed by all TSLA investors, and all who are considering investing in TSLA. Well done!
@Herbert: invite this man more to your show!!!!!
Well done Herbert. An independent expert able to speak freely. Next time ask him why he thinks the US will avoid a recession.
Great interview. He didn’t mention anything about tesla energy or tesla robot.
The biggest thing I got out of this discussion is FSD must achieve robotaxi status for this stock to leap else it’s only worth half. I really don’t believe they can achieve robotaxi because there is going to be hundreds of crazy edge cases like cruise accident that is just going to paralyze it. I think they have ten times better chance with the Optimus being successful but competition could make it less valuable.
Great interview on mid-term outlook and industry landscape. I'm curious if he has thoughts on companies' ability to take on new products when they are ostensibly part of the mission and the culture is still very focused on delivering on that vision versus companies that have lost that first love of innovation that they started and have calcified toward a profit culture under bean-counter type management.
One of the greatest discussions I've heard in a long time, and I think most of your other discussions/interviews are already pretty good, great work here gentlemen!!!;)
The suggestion that the market valuation suggests that Toyota is a very likely survivor is valuable insight. And suggests that as the market realizes that is not likely to be true, the Toyota stock price is likely to take a large hit.
Congrats Herbert, this is one of your first guests that actually offered a solution to getting through this economic downturn. That is; For Tesla to raise cash reserves to continue building growth of the company. Additionally with an added war chest of capital perhaps build a financial lending arm of Tesla to offer 0% interest with 20-30% down for a purchase of a new Tesla. There is no greater incentive than the psychological impact of 0%. IMO it makes more sense than discounting the car or truck.
Yeah, Elon has built a 26 billion war chest (cash) to combat a long recession if it were to happen.
However I completely disagree with the guests assumption that Toyota is going to survive because they are the biggest player in ICE vehicles. Toyota doesn’t have a transition plan and they don’t have anything close to a profitable EV. Toyota’s valuation will drop to zero over the next 5 to 7 years.
Thanks for saving me a lot of time. Simply can’t go through long videos without timestamps.
@@richb2229
Toyota has shown good stuff and bad stuff. They have shown a preliminary attempt at Musk's "unboxing" technique. They have announced they will be in the game in 2027. On the bad side, their present Bev is a great car, for five years ago. Their announcement of a great solid state battery is made every few years, and lacks credibility.
@richb2229 Toyota DOES have ability to produce EVs. They have been profitably building hybrids for many years; and hence demonstrate ALL key elements to produce BEVs. As a nation Japan refuses to be dependent on China - hence no Japanese company will make the leap into the deep end of the pool UNTIL they can circumvent such a dependency.
You all people seem to be clueless or own zero tesla stock, of tesla announces any kind of capital raise let alone 20 billion, stock will crash dramatically.
Very interesting interview. Many useful insights, but I disagree everything re Toyota.. (strange to measure 'survival' based on MC, and I personally do not think they will survive without government bailouts)
Very insightful interview 👏... I agree Toyota will survive and adjust, they will simply not be as big as they are now. They could let the technology mature and then just team up with Tesla or other Chinese manufacturers to outsource batteries or FSD tech.
Thanks! Arguably one of the best interviews on the subject of disruption!
Tesla isn’t necessarily first in AV but cost and scale will make them the massive edge in AVs long term.
One of the best insights ever seen on RUclips!!! Incredible guest and your questions… simply the Best! I learned so much… thanks