EXCLUSIVE: Tesla’s 5 STARTUPS w/ Cern Basher
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- Опубликовано: 25 ноя 2023
- Our guest today did the work to value five of Tesla’s Internal Startups: Supercharging, autonomous vehicles, bots, Autobidder, and Distributed Inference Computing. He’s built financial models for each of these “start-up” businesses
His conclusion? two of these five startups could account for 92% of Tesla’s $34 trillion valuation by 2030!
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*Cern's valuation model is the most comprehensive that I have ever seen!* _Let's not forget the HVAC business!_
Yes the HVAC market is another potential business opportunity for Tesla at some point AND software to control the home!
HVAC potential has been overplayed IMO, at best it's tiny compared to the rest.
@@Mrbfgray It's a big potential opportunity (especially with AI-powered software to control everything), but Tesla doesn't have the bandwidth to pursue it at this time.
@@CernBasher And by the time Tesla get's to it established players may have done similar, minus the AI which I question the need for there.
Tesla can’t compete in HVAC. Too many companies that would just copy and take lower profit margin to stay alive.
HVAC would be 25 years down the line if bored.
It would pale in comparison and Tesla wouldn’t want to deploy time when if any of these happened it would be full steam trying to even manage all these factories and complexities
Look at Apple. How much do they spend just on IOS keeping it running smoothly. A lot and lot of money. Tesla would have to manage superchargers. Bots. FSD. Licensing deals. New car factories. Servicing cars. Insurance. Solar. Megapacks. Autobidder. Dojo SaaS. Powerwalls. Battery division. . . All while trying to grow and keep ahead of competitors in all these areas. No they wouldn’t care about HVAC
Herbert really does an amazing job getting knowledgeable guests with relevant Tesla insights.
CB should be a regular. The analysis is on point and delivered well. I appreciate the long format videos.
Herbert, I am 80. I am robust. I hope I can buy an Optimus in 5 years to help me stay independent. Huge need here.
I'm old too, and having trouble with my ass. I need an ass robot now!
You're gonna live to be 200 with AI buddy
I'm sure having a gay surrogate will be a thing but won't be on the open market. You might have to go to the back rooms to get that fix. 😁
The robotaxi will be a big help in giving us independence.
OMG, I've watched this twice already and need to re-watch. This is so information dense! Many thanks to Cern!
Same!!! Have just watched it for a third time. Mind blowing ❤
I know, this is one that I save and watch over and over. Love it.
I've been following the "Tesla Influencer Community" for several years now and have come to realize that as a long term investor the only folks worth following are those very few who provide the sorts of information that cause me to edit my spreadsheet Tesla model. These two videos by Brighter with Herbert and Cern Basher are perfect examples of what I am looking for.
Thanks.
Thank you for your kind words. Always learning...
I have watched many, many Tesla valuation videos and this is by far the BEST video on this subject HANDS DOWN. Great job guys!!!
💯 ❤❤❤❤❤
Simply superb! Brilliant and thorough analysis. Great charts and listing of assumptions. Go Elon. Keep up the fine work Herbert and Cern.
Herbert, we appreciate your efforts. CERN’s projections are mind blowing!!
On par with 'older' Warren Redlich work.
Probably already replied somewhere but Bradford Ferguson said they think the mega-pactory was upgraded to 80gwhr’s. He said they added the crane and ramp necessary to double the output of the factory.
Herbert you are god sent. Thank you for your continuous contribution of Tesla insights.
Please bring Cern back every quarter
My daily dose of Tesla investment optimism !! Thank you Herbert and Cern !! 👍👍👍👍👍
Herbert, this is one of my favorite Tesla videos ever produced. Thank you for setting up the interview and doing the detailed walk through. Cern was fantastic.
Would like to see Gary black come on and challenge or agree with these assumptions ..
We need polarizing views to reach a better conclusion
Thanks Herbert
Wow! Videos like this keeps me buying the dip. Long term holder!
Today's discussion was very exciting. Thank you, Herbert.
This is an absolutely mind boggling video/interview/valuation discussion. Absolutely phenomenal 👊
One of your most informative videos Herbert! Thank you for posting. I listened to it while I was painting, but now I have to sit down and watch it completely. Cheers from Canada.
Finally someone gets the value of the bot.
This is one of those videos I have to watch 2 times - back to back :) lovely stuff guys !
BUY TESLA STOCK Now
I don't think they will sell their bots. I think they will be leased.
This allows them to own any data captured by the bots.
I think of Tesla as a data company.
Tesla sells vehicles and they still capture data to train FSD. So for bots it's not about selling vs leasing - it's more about control. Tesla won't want people to use the bots for purposes they don't want to see - e.g. bots fight club, bots jumping off cliffs or a bot army - so Tesla will want to maintain control over how the bots are used and they can do that whether or not they sell them or lease them.
One thing that's missing here (and also seemingly a very high probability outcome) is Tesla Semi. Instead of capturing ~10% of mileage on the supercharger network (which is a rough estimate for their current vehicle lineup given that ~90% of charging currently happens at home), Tesla may be able to capture close to 100% of charge milage for the Semi with Mega chargers, which is an enormous opportunity. This is of course in addition to their upfront margin on selling the Semi trucks themselves.
I don’t believe semi will be ramped for another 5 years.
If they were doing great why are they not being pushed out…
I think drive trains are breaking. Too heavy. Too low energy density. Too much complexity. Low margins. Not enough range for it to be adopted long range. Along with no charger network even built. How long would it take for tesla to build main line routes. They are backlogged 10 years already and semi isn’t in the crosshairs. Also I don’t believe Nevada can even support the volume needed which then goes into a whole redesign of factory or cobble together something like Fremont and we know Fremont is a joke if puzzle piece workings
The truly scary part about FSD is that its use case is literally infinite. Any mode of transportation could use FSD. Whether we're talking about private automobiles, public & or commercial transport. Or more specialized use cases like Tesla Robot. Which broadens the use case exponentially in regards to what else could be robotized using FSD? ❤😂
Herbert always has on the BEST guests, hands down! I asked Mary Barra if she'd come on your show. "No way Jose" was her answer. :)
Brilliant analysis. Thanks.
Herbert, you are starting to make Steven Mark Ryan look like a lazy slacker! So many vids!
Stopped watching SMR long ago. His constant use of the word "moron" grew old. Maybe he's changed.
FYI Herbert: CFA is Chartered Financial Analyst
(not certified financial accountant)
Good analogy
Amazing interview. Thank you Cern and Herbert! Now I am even more optimistic to have my money on Tesla ✨
Energy will be much larger than Automotive.
Great interview, Herbert. One caveat: Your frequent laughter is distracting.
Thank you for your insight. Absolutely GREAT!
Your slide of the Powerbanks around the 40 minute mark should have solar panels above the banks
Your best video yet.
Fantastic program. Well done. Your guests are very well picked.
Thanks both for this. My own model is just auto, energy and FSD, no robotaxi or bot. My very conserative base case (40% of tesla's own targets) pretty much aligns with Cern's, which is reassuring. I have not bothered modelling robotaxi or bot because I knew their value will be so high that I won't care any more. Cern's analysis supports this view. In my base model I am expectimg about 11% pa with, as CERn says, free call options on robotaxi and Bot. That is good enough for me.
This guy knows his shit
Thanks for an enlightening video Herbert, great stuff!
Great interview. Excellent work thank you both 👍
I used the models from the deep dive episode to build my own. That was a lot of fun maybe I will do the same here :D And its crazy how low you can go with revenue per unit in every business and still get Tesla to $10T+ in valuation
Great job guys
Thanks! This video offers so much value and hope. The numbers really do get nutty.
Thank you Marianne!
Great show! Relating to the mega pack factories they won't need to build 27 the existing factories will double or quadruple in size in my opinion so really just a half dozen more or so
Yes, I think you're right - I mentioned that 1 TWh of battery storage deployed per year equals the capacity of 25 Lathrop factories, but I didn't mean to suggest that Tesla needs to build 24 more factories. That said, I do think that Tesla will build many Megapack factories all over the world - both to be close to resources and close to customers to reduce the shipping costs.
@CernBasher absolutely
It's a bright future, though anyway you look at it. The size of the energy Market is truly mind boggling
As Elon has pointed out, there is a giant fusion reactor that passes overhead every day.
Let’s use it.
Not only size but with Optimus making these more will be made in less space and in less time
@BongoWongoOG Absolutely! This becomes the most profound virtuous cycle imaginable....Their's my hyperbole for the day.
Herbert - I don’t know how much this matters, but you refer to the EG group as an oil/gas company. To the best of my knowledge they are not and oil/gas company beyond being a retailer.
When I think of an Oil company, I think of a drilling/refining company, such as BP, Royal Dutch Shell etc.
Thank you both Herbert and Cern.
I absolutely lovee these slides! thank you
A+ thank you both.
Excellent Herbert. This is a milestone interview!
1 hour vid and I just watched it twice!
Great show, really puts things into perspective.
Amazing work and I will follow it over the years. How exciting🎉
I suspect Tesla will use the huge Tesla owned Robotaxi fleet for their primary source of inference AI computing service (rather than using customer EVs). The same is true for Tesla’s Robotaxi vehicle to grid (V2G) Autobidder business.
This is because its much easier to control and manage a Tesla owned fleet than dealing with the unpredictability and logistics of using customer EVs.
They don’t have to add 3 new MegaPack factories a year if they expand existing MegaPack factories by doubling or tripling the MegaPack factories in Lathrope and Nevada, and increase the planned size of any new MegaPack factory announcements to 80, 120, or 160 annual MegaPack unit production targets.
I think 'expansion' includes battery factories wherever autos OR Storage factories are built. Taking advantage of localizes Li deposits.
Wow! Mind blown. Great info. Thanks!
Good to see you Cern Basher enjoyed meeting you with Scott Walker at Florida Mall (Optimus event).
Optimistic, but all I need to do is justify holding on to Tesla stock.
As usual, excellent content.
Once again Herbert.... An Amazing discussion!
Thank you Herbert & Cern. Amazing investment discussion for long term Tesla investors.
Back up the truck!
Should Cern be added to the Tesla bulls group?
Herbert and Cern, great work! This is my feeling too. We are poised to be involved in greatness owning Tesla. The bots first I believe. But, either of the AI plays is huge and world changing. I think the recent visit by Xi and moves to take FSD to China indicate we are not the only ones that realise this.
Truly an eye opening analysis by Cern. Indeed I would love to hear more from him. I would like to see him forcast a per share price based upon these assumptions.
I don't forecast share prices or make price targets - as the time frames for autonomy and bots are squishy. But, if you were to do the math, Tesla currently has about 3.4 billion shares outstanding, so a $34 trillion market value equates to about $10,000 per share. Not investment advice.
@@CernBasherback of a napkin is about 40x from current November 2023 price. Not investment advice.
@@CernBasherdo you estimate the Chinese to just copy everything Tesla does. So maybe market share is more 1/3 valuation.
BYD and others are already in megapacks
Tesla hands all FSD data to China. Easy to just give out and copy FSD programs
Robots can easily be duplicated with FSD software and a slew of Chinese companies. I mean would we buy a Chinese robot or a Tesla bot? So why would they buy an American bot when a Chinese’s company will offer their flavor.
One of your best shows yet
Cyberbattery, if Tesla succeed with it’s 4680 and you have enough raw material, you make 10000 battery lines around the world and make giga pack everywhere. Small factory footprint, gigapack are relatively simple, and you would not have to ship anything on long distance.
Literally skimmed his analysis yesterday and thought… this guy need to be interviewed haha
Great video. Incredibly great perspective and discussion for those will think and act.
Herbert, for the inference compute, you only used the annual delivery of new cars. Obviously all existing cars are also part of the compute. so the starting like using SW3 would be something like 4-5 million cars today that you guys did not consider.
The existing fleet was included, but I didn't assume all vehicles would participate.
Got it@@CernBasher
When you give Grok a prompt it should respond with a byline containing “courtesy of”, a pic of the car or bot that processed the request, and a rough location, maybe a bit of info about the bot’s role in life. A bit of fun.
even if we get 10% of this, that is still $3.4T. May sound bearish, but its still very bullish imo.
I haven’t seen any analysis of the value of the lithium refining that Tesla is doing now both from a COGS reduction perspective and from sales. Has anyone seen anything about that?
I view it as a) ensuring steady supply so that Tesla can achieve its growth objectives and b) helping Tesla maintain their margins in the face of other potential challenges. To the extent there are COGS reductions, Tesla would likely pass it on to the EV buyer (perhaps not immediately, but over time).
@@CernBasher
Elon has spoken about software- like margins for lithium refining. Do you not think that it could contribute to Tesla’s bottom line long term by providing excess lithium to the industry?
@@yschlussel This is a possibility. Right now, I just assume that Tesla consumes all the lithium they refine - helps them maintain a steady supply and to reduce COGS.
I just rewatched this as I found it very interesting first go around. I don't remember hearing anything about DOJO in the startup models maturing.....?
Great interview Herbert. And I though I was bullish on Tesla! 😊
Fascinating! I think the timing of the robo taxi & Optimus is on Elon time. I don’t think any revenue from either will start before 2026.
Don’t forget GROK.
Quick math: This would mean $100k would...if true turn into $4Millions in 7 years at a 71% CAGR. That is nutty!
Don’t forget that as electric vehicles become more common, most people will have charging in their homes, and companies will place chargers in parking spots all over the city. So having more super chargers isn’t really needed. More in the short term yes, but long term no.
True. It seems to me that there's still probably a magic ratio of the number of Supercharging stations needed versus the number of EVs. And it's directly related to the number of miles travelled away from home (where you can't charge at home or work) vs. near home (where you can charge at home at night and at work during the day). Eventually there will be some kind of saturation point - before we have chargers on every corner and in every parking space. In a robotaxi world, traveling greater distances becomes easier (you don't have to pay attention so you can sleep in the vehicle) and cheaper than alternatives (flying) so people travel might travel more - and in that case the need for Superchargers between destinations might be higher than we realize.
Certified Financial Accountant? 🤣 CFA is the Chartered Financial Analyst designation
Music to my ears 🎉
Watched 2 times already gang checking in!
This is why 30% of my investment is In Tesla until at least 2030
same
Going forward, please clearly defined the variables on your charts. Is the first chart may percentage of revenue, a percentage of profit or a percentage of market capitalization???
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More from Cern please.
So how much is the share price at these different projections? We have to think about dilution of the shares to all the employees too. At a certain point there should be dividends in the distant future as Tesla become a mature company you would think, or maybe they will just do splits of the shares.
Assuming that the elecrtric grid follows trough, if one could had a credit card reader to his home charger, you could boost the charging stations by an insane amount.
The Cruise mess just made Robo taxi 10 years in the future.700 billion for auto is too low.
Cruise was a fraud. Not autonomous.
Thank you share beautiful video❤
Great, presentation. I think everything is possible if the raw materials are available. I am talking about mining, transporting (currently dependent on Diesel), processing materials. Can you analyze this? Is there enough raw materials available to achieve this?
Thanks
Great channel
Enough materials? There's already a Tesla presentation on that. Bottom line: Not a problem.
@@robzienert7492can you provide the link?
Thanks!
An hour is a long video. I suggest a short that lists the 5 Startups to promote the long form. I am interested but thinking I can name 3 out 5 or maybe all has me opting to not burn the hour.
Generally, for AI or most large problems, you need high bandwidth and short delay times between computing nodes. Using idle time in cars would only apply to a small class of problems. Not sure if this is really a viable option. I think it may be more trouble than it's worth.
Wondering your thoughts on solar roof. I know it's been slow to start, but as people buy ev's and charge at home it seems like the ROI is going to decrease as power consumption increases
CFA is Chartered Financial Analyst not Certified Financial Accountant (no such thing).
💯 reasonable assessment.
Great video ! …that my wife, who is not familiar with Tesla, also love how the future will be.
Didn’t even know about auto bidder till today 😮
With distributed compute, the vehicle owner payment needs to include a payment to cover the electricity cost used by the vehicle's computer.
Yes. I included that in my model.
The stock price will explode the price WAY before the actual sales happen. It's just a question of when the Portfolio Managers accept the probability of it happening.
It is effectively the linear growth of the Auto and Energy Business versus the logarithmic growth of the humanoid bots and Robotaxi. What about the bots building Megapacks? Then the energy business becomes logarithmic too.
Good way to look at it.
These estimates and projections are very interesting. I wonder how they would be affected by instabilities in the world over the next few years, given that we are already seeing major conflicts (Russia/Ukraine, Israel/Palestine/Iran, Chinese aggression in Asia). Is it possible the projected valuations could be negatively affected by developing world events, especially if there are some major wars?
The wildest way to do this is to buy long-term out of the money calls. It's a call on a call. Super high risk but if the market begins to value the 2028 numbers in 2025/6 its a winning lotto ticket.